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China's economy is feeling the effects of a sharp slowdown of the economy with covid lockdowns in 2022 and the Ukraine crisis undermining confidence in China. Internal divisions on president Xi's policies of allying with Russia on Ukraine are shown in this report by the WSJ. China faces a collapse of its relationship with the US and Europe says the WSJ. With it China's economic growth faces a sharp slowdown.  From 18% at the beginning of 2021 economic growth has slowed down to 4% in fourth quarter of 2021. The current situation in Ukraine and Mr. Xi's response create risks of collateral damage for Chinese manufacturers with weakening global demand, says the WSJ. Deng Xiaoping's policy of opening China which happened for the last 40 years is being reversed with Mr. Xi's policies and the stance taken by the Biden administration is supported by the US Congress by both Republicans and Democrats.  This WSJ report points out that premier Li Keqiang has pointed to the risks China is facing in somber tones calling the external environment for China in 2022 "more complex and severe." At the same time Hu Wei a senior adviser to the State Council stirred up discussion online with an article about Mr. Xi's pro-Russian policy, saying "China can't be tied to Putin and the ties need to be cut off as soon as possible."  ...

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Coal is making a comeback as many countries in Asia are bringing back coal units following LNG shortages. Impact of Hormuz shutdown- 40% increased use of coal in Korea, coal units reactivated in India, and put on standby in Italy. Italy delays phaseout of coal to 2038. Coal is a reliable fuel in this period of Hormuz Straits shutdown. Much of Asia's LNG comes through Hormuz. Use of coal in the US shown here in graphs which in a second explain why the DJT administration and Republicans say it makes so little difference what the US does in coal for climate change when China and India make up 90% of the use of coal. Consider what these charts show- use of coal in 2027 in the US is 331 million metric tons vs 1422 million metric tons for India, almost 5 times the US coal use happening in India. EU is 244 million metric tons. But wait the Chinese number is much much larger than India's - 5005 million metric tons used in China in 2027. India's coal use alone is 3 times that of the EU and the US combined.  China's coal use is about 10 times the coal used in the US and EU combined. And when one compares US+EU use of coal to India + China coal use - India and China used in 2027 13 times as much as the US and European Union.  Which is why because cutting coal use also impacts communities hit hardest by the Elites of America (Bush+ Obama) shipping out its whole manufacturing base to China. These communities get some relief from these same Elites policies that shut down all coal plants, instead of using a carefully structured wind down that allows some selective use of coal plants which are cleaned up for emissions, and pushes China to do more. Small cuts in coal use in China which has benefitted from our Elites shipping out the national manufacturing base of the US to China, would make a bigger difference than large cuts or total shutdown of coal plants in the US, where the communities impacted are in the rural parts of America that have lost factories and jobs such as in Pennsylvania due to Bush and Obama policies of looking the other way to deindustrialization of America. ...

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A building boom during the pandemic led to extra supply of new apartment complexes in Austin. This is now coming down as the supply is 72% down from the peak year in 2025. As a result there are fewer special offers of discounts on rentals in Austin. Austin, Nashville and Phoenix experienced a wave of new apartment building complexes added to supply during the pandemic years, with Austin getting the largest supply because of new job opportunities in technology fields. Homes were going at 15% discount compared to bidding wars in San Francisco and San Jose in northern California. 

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Senators Murphy and Cornyn have helped pass legislation on gun control and mental health, public safety, with the support of all Democrats and 15 Senators from Republicans including majority leader McConnell. This comes after shooting in their home states and the two shootings at an elementary school and a supermarket in Uvalde, Texas and Buffalo, New York. The bill passed the Senate 65 to 34 and crossed the 60 vote filibuster threshold which was a barrier in the past. Only two senators from the 15 Republicans are up for election this year, Romney faces an election in 2024, four are retiring and 8 senators of the 15 are up for reelection in 2026. This made a compromise possible separating those who wanted strict gun control from those who want no gun control from the compromise group to achieve a consensus that all could vote for.

 

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BBC News looks at the situation in Bordeaux, France, after the Front Populaire wins the election. The NFP has a seasoned candidate in this parliamentary seat who can greet people by name. The RN candidate is 18 years old and is new to campaigning, showing that the RN of Le Pen had to field candidates with very little time for preparation in a snap election. People in Bordeaux and NFP supporters say 2025 and 2026 are years in which the Front Populaire has to deliver on cost of living actions to improve the lives of people struggling to make a living. For this to happen Macron has to give the NFP the chance to govern in the interests of the people of France and not obstruct actions needed to tackle cost of living. The Socialist parties have the experience to govern and obstruction would only further reduce the popularity of the Les Republicains and Macron's party.

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Fewer workers will support the elderly in the U.S. and the process is accelerating, posing new problems for Social Security programs. Census figures show in 2017 there were 25 Americans 65 years or older for every 100 people in working years, by 2030 this figure goes up to 35 retirees. By 2025 it will reach 33 retirees. By comparison in 2025 Canada would be 40 retirees, Germany 44, Japan 58, and on the lower side India at 13, Mexico 16, China 22. Trustees for Social Security are dipping into the Trust fund in 2018 to pay benefits for first time since 1982.

States are in worse shape $2.6 trillion in assets cover $4 trillion in liabilities in fiscal 2016, according to data from Pew Trust.

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Read about how the Ground Mission Control talks to the astronauts looking at the moon in the fly by in the Artemis II Mission on April 6 2026. Artemis II takes the observations and the information collected on this fly by, pictures of crater areas on the surface of the moon and other places, where a future landing place may be found for a landing on the moon that sets up a permanent exploration center. Judging by the enthusiasm generated in the US and the public support it looks like such a permanent exploration site will come next. The astronauts Reid Wiseman, Jeremy Hansen, Christina Koch, and Victor Glover were great as a team and really boosted the public perception of the Artemis II Moon Mission with their live talk with Mission Control on earth that the world watched.

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This 40 minute IMF Video looks indepth into how far the Paris Agreement on Climate Change of 2015 has moved the world to address 1.5 degree change in climate? What is the situation in 2023 as we move towards 2030? NIcholas Stern of LSE says the peak of emissions will be reached by 2024 however the curve will not be pretty as the drop in the curve will be a small dip in emissions not steep drop that we need. Action is needed to accelerate.. Pilita Clark of the Financial Times conducts a discussion with Nicholas Stern of the Grantham Institute at London School of Economics, Bo Li Deputy Managing Director of IMF, and Zhou Xiaochuan who heads China's Boao Forum and formerly was Governor of the Bank of China.

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Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, in meetings with bankers and business leaders says Britain should remain in the single market 2 years after exit from the European Union, according to the Sunday Times. Theresa May plans for Britain to exit the EU in 2019. The reason is that this would protect business as it adjusts to leaving the single market, a kind of transition or Brexit buffer period. This period "really informs what businesses need to do because you transition and restructure during that window," Carney told a House of Commons Treasury Committee. About the changes in the politics in the U.S. and Europe Carney has said about basic fairness in bankers language- "market fundamentalism can devour the social capital needed for capitalism" to work, referring to the moral failures in operations of the banks by 2009 and how it hit the middle and working class incomes and wealth.

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What it takes to put a CDU/SPD coalition government in Germany- 16 working groups, 250 negotiators, 10 work days. And that is only the first step. It then goes to party leaders talking with their working groups. Taxes and migration policy are 2 key hurdles. Lars Kingbeil on the Social Democrat side, Carsten Linnemann on the Christian Democrat side with to be chancellor Merz. Both sides say some friction, dissent is normal after an election in which the CDU barely crossed 29% and the SPD made it only to 16% of the vote. Both sides see each other as indispensable. CDU feels SPD is sticking to its positions. Migration- SPD's Carl Stegner says- "The SPD will not engage in a contest to treat as badly as possible those who have come to Germany and have done nothing wrong." The CDU wants to give only "bed, bread and soap," to rejected asylum seekers. It sees its promises in the election as real when it made clear statements to stop migration and cut benefits, with its credibility at stake. CDU also believes that like DJT in the USA this tough policy is certain to make such migration unattractive. The other difference is on Taxes- the SPD wants to see higher taxes on the well off. ...

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One of the goals of the Northern Ireland deal is closer relations between the EU and Britain putting to rest the tensions from Brexit. The EU sees Sunak as a good faith negotiator and made concessions on the application of EU laws for Northern Ireland. In Britain 60% of people now say in opinion surveys that they see the 2016 vote to leave the European Union as a mistake. A genuine relationship with the EU will happen only after a change in power from the Conservatives to the Labour party in the January 2025 election, says Mark Landler in the NYT.

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The $1.2 billion that was approved in a ballot measure called HHH is just not enough to tackle the homeless problems in Los Angeles. That was supposed to build 10,000 apartments for the homeless. But every year the numbers of homeless living on the street keep growing from 21,000, in 2016 to 28,000 in 2022. Only about 3400 apartments were built for the homeless at costs approaching $500,000 a homeless unit. Communities such as Venice where one of the projects were being built on a parking lot show resistance and projects go thorough a time consuming process of getting approvals and permits, getting the land.

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The US central bank, the Fed, signals smaller rate increases in the future after another rate increase of 0.75% in November 2022. "It is very premature to be thinking of pausing. We have a ways to go," says Fed chairman Jerome Powell. He added that - "the question of when to moderate the pace of rate  increases is now less important than the question of how high to raise interest rates and how long to keep monetary policy restrictive." The move raises rates in the US to between 3.75% and 4.0%. Rates could go up to 5% in 2023.

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Chevron posts revenue of $247 billion in 2022 and profit of $35.5 billion. Profits are double that in 2021. High oil prices have increased profits for oil companies when households in the US and Britain are suffering the effects of inflation. President Biden has said the higher profits are "the windfall of war" when average American households are suffering the effects of higher energy prices. The Guardian has shown the increase in demand for food banks in Britain even from people working as nurses and teachers which has never happened in this way before with higher prices for energy and food following the war in Ukraine.

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U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 was 7.4%. This is a record and the closest to this was the economic growth in 1950 which was 3.9% a little over half of that. This is the equivalent of 33% on an annualized basis.

The economy is about 3.5% smaller than when the pandemic started. This record is better than the one in 2008 financial crisis when over a period of one and half years the economy declined by about 4%. By 2021 the U.S. economy will have recovered to where it was back to its original shape if recovery proceeds at this rate.

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Households and businesses have built up trillions of dollars in extra savings and the economic recovery looks strong says this report in the WSJ. Experts expect the economy to pass pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of 2021. From this point the economy can recover the pre-pandemic trajectory of growth for 2022. There is a bit of caution about another wave of the coronavirus with new more contagious variants considering that about half the population still remains unvaccinated. The US has enough vaccine supplies, it is the anti-vax sentiment that could be the problem. Even with this bit of caution the economy appears resilient.

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The German film for the best international feature film for Academy Award in 2023 is Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front. It is based on Erich Maria Remarque's 1929 novel of same name. In it Remarque shows a generation of young men in an upbeat mood when leaving school for the front, only to end up in the war dead on the French German trench warfare lines of 1915-1918. The first film was made in 1930, the second in 1979, Berger's is the first from Germany. It comes as a war started in Eastern Europe in 2022. 

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The Russian central bank under Elvira Nabiullina raises interest rates by 3.5% to 12%. In the first 5 months of 2023 the Russian government spent 50% more in rubles than in the same period in 2022. The increase in spending meant increase in wages and more hiring for production of goods including production for the war effort. The policy was to carry on the war effort without the effects of the war being felt by ordinary Russian citizens. The result has been higher inflation at 7.6%. Nabiullina faces a unique set of challenges to control inflation, maintain the economy even as Russia continues the war effort in Ukraine. 

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This Guardian report provides a timeline for lunar exploration. The last Apollo Moon missions date back to 1972 with Apollo 17. It lasted 12 days with the first crewed space flight to the moon taking Schmitt and Cernan to moon's surface while Evans orbited above. Since then it has been quiet for lunar exploration till Chang'e 3 lander and rover from China in 2011 put China on the moon, followed by Chang'e 5 in 2020. Today August 23, 2023 India puts its own moon lander and rover on the South Pole of the moon which is expected to have water.

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Toyota's new startup Woven Planet was supposed to create a startup to produce the software that run's cars for today, and do this within a company that produces 10 million cars using tested quality control and factory efficiency methods. It has not worked as shown in this report in WSJ. Deadlines for the software were put off till 2027 and Toyota was falling behind. Toyota had planned a separate city near Mount Fuji for the company and separate cultural setting. This has not happened and Toyota is now integrating the software startup into its own operations bringing forward deadlines to 2025.

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Geert Wilders Freedom Party wins 37 seats in the 150 seat Dutch parliament. Dilan Isigloz leading Rutte's party gets 24 seats who also seeks control of immigration.  Netherlands is already seeing a surge in sentiment against high levels of immigration. About a quarter of all immigrants, 403,000 in 2022 up 150,000 from 2021, 103,000 are from Ukraine and 257,000 or 64% are from EU countries (Statistics Netherlands). Mark Rutte's coalition government collapsed when he sought curbs on immigration. A left alliance got 24 seats and Timmermans's EU party got 24 seats.