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Germany's exports dropped by 2.8% and imports by 0.1% in October over prior month. Trade surplus dropped to 16.8 billion euros from 13.4 billion euros. Germany's largest export market is the US. It now faces tariffs from the new DJT administration.

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The new CEO of Stellantis, the company formed by Carlos Tavares with the merger of Chrysler-Fiat with Peugoet Citroen of France, is Antonio Filosa. Filosa was the head of Americas operations of Stellantis and is Italian from the Fiat operations. Stellantis faces a dropoff in sales in the US with 20% higher inventory and uncertainty about tariffs on production of cars in Canada and Europe. He succeeds Carlos Tavares in a changed environment for automobiles. Tavares had pushed ahead with plans for EV vehicles which now face considerable uncertainty.

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Hotels in New York City can cost a fortune- $1100 a night in December near Christmas, $300 in September, $150 lower in January. Here dawn Gilbertson shares a small condo with an Airbnb host for $155 in December in Brooklyn about an hour subway+walk  to Manhattan.

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On May 11, NYT shows the rail network in India opening with the first trains taking 45 million migrants to homes in all parts of the country. Australia calls for an international inquiry into the cause of the coronavirus pandemic and its origins in China. Russia begins a cautious reopening with the governors of provinces having powers for reopening based on local conditions. In Spain restrictions are gradually being lifted but the major cities of Barcelona and Madrid are still in lockdown. And as Germany the first country to reopen opens up its business and schools the crucial R ratio of reproduction of the virus -with 1 being the number at which it grows again and below 1 showing control of spread- moves up to above 1.

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Deutsche Bank's image takes a hit in a criminal investigation of alleged tax fraud at Deutsche Bank involving cross border trading of carbon emissions certificates by traders. Co-CEO Jurgen Fitschen called the Governor of Hesse to protest a raid by 500 German police officers and investigators of the headquarters of Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt. The officers arrested some executives and confiscated data. Fitschen and co-CEO Jain were in a supervisory role for the trading and not directly involved. Fitschen signed a tax declaration that is part of the case. Over 20 Deutsche Bank executives are under investigation in the case. Because Fitschen was also being examined in the case this is being viewed in Germany as placing himself ''above the law," by interfering in a criminal investigation. Christopher Frank, head of the German Association of Judges, a senior prosecutor in Freiburg, said in an interview: "Its disturbing that a bank executive believes he can influence the independence of the judiciary through a phone call...This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the principle of separation of powers."...

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Jan 22, 2003 in New Delhi, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who revived Gandhiji's Indian vision for the 21st century, said on the Golden Jubilee of India's Parliament-  "If the 20th century saw the global growth of democracy, the new century should see its further expansion and enrichment. Especially, we should develop democracy as an effective instrument for fulfilling people's aspirations and resolving conflicts and contentious issues. History has proved time and again that free and democratic societies are the ones that are creative, self-corrective and self-regenerative. The holding of regular elections, the victories and defeats of individuals and parties, and the periodic change of governments have many benefits. These make elected representatives accountable; keep the rulers in check if they develop hunger for power; prevent rigidity in governance; and dislocate social and economic interests that would otherwise get vested."   "At the same time, we cannot overlook the many ways in which the Parliamentary system, including ours, needs to be strengthened. All democracies, especially in developing countries that have considerable diversities and carry the burden of developmental imbalances, have had to grapple with one paramount challenge. And that is: how to harmonise the legitimate self-assertion of communities that suffered deprivation and disempowerment in the past with the imperatives of good governance?"   "One obvious answer lies in the need to protect and further strengthen the institutions of democracy. Our ancient seers taught a guru mantra: Dharmo Rakshati Rakshitah. Dharma, protected, protects. In the same way, institutions, protected, protect. They can function well only if each of us adheres to the norms that are the essence of each institution. If we adhere to the norms of our institutions, the effectiveness of democracy would go up ten fold, even a hundred fold. If we don't, it is imperiled."   "There is a second imperative. Our economies are becoming increasingly integrated. The demands of our people are ever more pressing. Thereby governance has become more complex, demanding newer competencies from elected representatives. All parliamentary democracies, therefore, face a common challenge: how are we to ensure that the rough and tumble of electoral politics brings such persons to office who can actually handle the complex tasks of governance?" ...

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The Times of London reports on the decision by the Supreme Court of Britain that Boris Johnson abused his powers and acted unlawfully in suspending parliament. Separately BBC analysis shows that even though Johnson is relying on polls and planning to run people vs. parliament this means that its the courts as part of what he calls the establishment he is running against.  Nigel Farage called for Johnson's adviser Cummings to resign showing that the Leave campaign is not what it was when Britain voted to leave the EU in the first referendum on June 23, 2016, now over 3 years and 3 months since then.

 

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The Trump speech at Motera stadium in Ahmedabad, Gujarat in which he quotes Swami Vivekananda, with the line- "While our nations have many differences they are propelled by a fundamental truth, the truth that all of us are blessed with divine light, and every person is endowed with a sacred soul." 

Mr. Trump visited Sabarmati Ashram, the site where Gandhi spent many years,  right after landing on a 8000 mile non- stop flight to Ahmedabad, and is shown trying his hand with Gandhi's cotton textile making wheel and reflecting on the stone bench in this place by the river Sabarmati where so much happened.

 

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Why are home covid test kits harder to find in the US compared to Europe and other places? Part of the reason is that the FDA was more stringent in approving home tests than in Europe. During the focus on vaccination in mid 2021 there was less demand for home tests so that Abbott and other makers of home tests actually cut back on production. European governments continued buying them in bulk to distribute them free as the tests were required to enter restaurants and public transport in Europe. With Omicron in December 2021 pharmacies in the US quickly ran out of tests and prices were high at $25 for test kits.

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Dependence on China increased during the Merkel years to extreme levels. A EU survey shown in this DW.com report shows that of 137 products and services deemed critical, including fields such as renewable energy and health, almost 50% are supplied by China and only 3% by Russia. German foreign takeover laws and acquisition laws are being upgraded only now after years of China's investment in German technology and critical infrastructure  companies. The Merkel administration took a lax approach to protecting German technology and critical infrastructure. A similar situation existed with the Obama administration in the US. New regulations give the German government a veto in all critical mergers and acquisitions. This DW.com report says that today Germany's protected sectors include energy and telecommunications, medical technology, artificial intelligence. The problems  with the previous approach in the Merkel years that showed a complete disregard for protecting vital technologies was that the Economy Ministry in 2016 was not able to stop the full takeover of the flagship German robotics company KuKa by a Chinese manufacturer of dishwashers and refrigerators Midea. In 2018 a Chinese state electric utility company SGCC sought to get a 20% stake in 50Hertz a German electric grid operator which was turned back. Only now with the entry of the Greens under Habeck and Baerbock in government has Germany adopted a clear policy of effective action to protect German technology and critical infrastructure companies. ...

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Wind energy is great but it puts "tight margins" on Britian's energy grid as well as power grids in other countries. A huge expansion of wind farms as in Britain brings renewable energy, but low wind output could create generator shortages.

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Alissa Rubin of NYT covers a visit by Emmanuel Macron, French presidnetial candidate, to a village in the mountains on the Spanish border where his grand parents lived and where he visited often as a child, and where he learned to cycle, ski and appreciate the outdoors. Macron was born and raised in Amiens, near Paris. His parents are both doctors. He attended a parochial school run by Jesuits, and at age 15 met a teacher of French and drama, Brigitte Trogneux, with whom he fell in love and later married in 2007.

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The revised AIG rescue plan helps banks recover some of their losses on collateralized debt obligations and helps AIG by cancelling the credit default swaps it wrote on these CDO's, and thus helps shore up the financial system. This is what happened. During the boom period banks bought protection from the insurer AIG on securities backed by now-troubled mortgage assets. These securities are called CDO's or collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime mortgage bonds, commercial mortgage loans and other assets. Banks in the US, and Europe bought credit default swaps on these securities from AIG, and AIG promises to compensate them if the securites default. Now with the housing and the credit crisis the values of these CDO's plummet, banks go to AIG and AIG has to provide them collateral to help cover these losses of the banks. AIG ends up giving $35 billion in collateral to the banks including Goldman, Merrill, UBS, Deutsche Bank and others. The continuing fall in value of the CDO's meant AIG had to give more and more collateral to the banks leaving AIG severly exposed, which is along with other problems on its accounting books when the government stepped in in early October to bailout AIG with loans, with interest rates that became punitive for AIG leaving it in a struggling condition. What does the new revised plan do. It eases conditions on the interest rates and the New York Fed puts $30 billion of its money to buy the multisector CDO's at market prices averaging 50 cents to the dollar and AIG provides an additional $5 billion. With than one action banks get to recover their $35 billion and AIG gets to cancell its credit default swaps on these CDO's, in effect freeing AIG from thses swaps that were creating a hemorrhaging effect as it had to keep posting more and more collateral to banks, and banks got to recover the money on CDO's. In effect helping shore up the financial system. There are other problems at AIG but this was the biggest and most draining, and it helps AIG protect its other businesses, and banks get to put this dismal chapter behind them. ...

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Arvind Panagriya, Prof. of Economics at Columbia University, points out the key initiatives of the Modi government in its first four years which will show results in future years for development of the country.  He mentions the Swachh Bharat Mission and cites results that show rural households with toilets are now 84% up from 38%.  By 2019 the whole country will be defecation zone free on the 100th anniversary of the birth of Mahatma Gandhi. The Dhan Jan Yojana DJY accounts opened for rural households are up to 316 million. Aadhar cards for identification are up from 650 million to 1.2 billion. The Aadhar and DJY work together to enable direct transfer of benefits to poor households, eliminating the leaks in benefits transfer and ghost accounts of the period since independence in 1947. Not mentioned by Panagriya is the Health Insurance scheme for lower income households that enable families to survive a sudden medical expense that could put them in dire straits.  These efforts work in a way to change India from the ground up from its villages and rural areas as envisioned by Mahatma Gandhi in the struggle for independence. The land acquisition law amendments were put on hold till farmers concerns could be better accomodated, an area of concern for industrial development cited in an editorial in the Hindu newspaper. Fiscal consolidation and inflation targeting have resulted in an average inflation rate of 4.3% for the 4 years of the Modi government. Inflation was over 9% in the last 2 years of the previous Congress UPA government with GDP growth dropping to 5.9% for the last two years. Average GDP growth for four years for the Modi government is 7.3%, even after the changes to implement GST taxation for one national tax eliminating state barriers in interstate commerce and demonetization to fight corruption and black money. Rate of GDP growth should be higher after the gains from the initiatives and the new GST integration of the country are felt, with increase in investment and FDI, after infrastructure improvements and land acquisition arrangements are made. Transportation infrastructure modernization initiative pushes ahead with the first bullet train in the pilot project for Ahmedabad- Mumbai set to start in 2022. This is a $17 billion project financed for $13 billion by the Japanese government at 0.1% loan for 50 years, moratorium on repayments for 20 years, using E5 Shinkansen series technology. Implementation of this project on a sound financial basis should lead to transformation of the Indian rail network, raising the level of technology implementation across the entire Indian rail system. Such an achievement would rival the first introduction of railways into India in the nineteenth century under the British. A new bankruptcy law is intended to free up capital for investment by putting behind the large number of non performing loans in the Indian banking system. Changes made by the central bank RBI are designed to speed up this process so that loss making enterprises are absorbed, consolidated or shut down, a legacy from the earlier period.     ...

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Saudi global forum on oil price issues meets even as differnces emerge inside OPEC with Algeria, Iran and Venezuela opposed to increasing oil supplies and to a unilateral decision by the Saudis to increase production. After the Bush visit the Saudis increased production by 300,000 barrels a day or 3% to 9.45 million barrels a day. The bulk of the unused production capacity of 2 million barrels a day in OPEC is with the Saudis. The Algerians and the Saudis blame the price increases on futures speculation, lack of refining capacity to produce gasoline in the western countries, and geopolitical tension. For the Saudis and the Kuwaitis there is also resentment that they are asked to use their declining oil supplies while the USA is not allowing offshore drilling and drilling inside its borders to the extent that it could. Note that the ordinary Saudis lower and middle classes are not seeing much change in their lives as inflation is high, and the prices of food and other needs is reducing their purchasing power. Much of the oil price windfall is going into large projects to build aluminium and other plants, and to build new cities in the desert for a growing population, which effectively rechannels the money back to western countries who are actively involved in these projects. The projects themselves may produce value but it is still an open question whether this is the best way to invest this money. And the other serious question is whether this will come at the expense of future oil earnings as the world reduces its dependence on oil. The money is also spread very disparately across the Middle East, with neighboring countries like Yemen in southern Arabia without oil revenues suffering serious lack of development. The political structures like Saudi Arabia created after the first world war by western powers, itself may impede a proper distribution of commodity resource revenues across the region....

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U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson calls Russia "incompetent" for letting Syria hold onto chemical weapons even after a deal to remove the weapons was made and implemented. Tillerson was also critical of Russian attempts to influence elections in France and Germany.

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In a effort to improve nutrition for the urban poor in India, the Indira Canteens formed in 2017 have already made substantial progress in Bengaluru (Bangalore). The canteens backed by the state offer subsidized meals, breakfast costing 5 Indian rupees or 7 U.S. cents, lunch and dinner costing 10 rupees or 14 U.S. cents. About 65 million Indians live in urban slums, a highly marginalized group, many migrants from nearby villages who now live in slums that are often near neighborhoods of the affluent and upper middle class. In addition to low income groups, rickshaw cab drivers, and laborers, this program has benefited school and college students who also use the canteens. More than 170 canteens have been set up in Bengaluru in a hub and spoke model with canteens located near colleges and hospitals and supplied from central kitchens nearby. An app gives the menu, nearby locations and takes feedback. It costs the state 16 million euros from a state budget of 26.4 billion euros, and is an imitation of a similar project Amma Canteens in neighboring Tamilnadu state. It reaches 250,000 people a day in Bengaluru. ...

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The view of regional Fed presidents indicates that the Fed may take a pause from any further intervention in financial markets. QE 2 was launched at a time when the government was at a deadlock for any further stimulus, and a deflationary trend was setting in. In August of 2010 inflation was on a downward trajectory, from 2.8% to less than 2.2% in a few months. A New York Times article by Paul Krugman pointed out the dangers of deflation. Alan Blinder argued for the need for Fed action with the deadlock in government over further stimulus in another op-ed in the Wall Street Journal at the time. The political deadlock continues with pressure to cut federal spending to reduce the deficit, reducing the chances of government support, and leaving the Fed as the sole source of support. The Fed initiated QE 2 in Novemeber 2010 when consumer prices were up 1.1% from a year earlier, and far below the Fed's 2% goal. In April 2011 consumer prices were up 3.1% over the prior year. Current TIPS prices suggest investor expectations of inflation of 2.8% over 5 years. Another deflationary trend could lead the Fed to take some sort of action in the presence of a political deadlock for government action....

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The Queue for seeing Queen Elizabeth at Westminster is a talking point around the world. See the queue here on the BBC and Charles III and Prince William interacting with the people in the queue. It is five miles long and stretches along the Thames and through London. It takes 9 to 24 hours to complete the queue and enter Westminster. It is a typically British invention. One report in the BBC on the queue described the silent meditative magic of it. The good humored and patient standing for hours and hours showed the British public at its best. This report looks at the organization that also helped set this up.

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Asymptomatic people infected by coronavirus are acting as spreaders of the coronaavirus making it more essential than ever that everyone wear masks. This is a widely accepted practice in Asia- wearing masks to prevent others from getting a virus. This now needs badly to become the practice in the U.S. and Europe. The longer it is delayed the worse the crisis can get and the longer it takes to eradicate it. Even low grade cotton masks are useful as is the practice in Asian countries. It is now part of the new guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control in the U.S. This needs to be adopted as safe practice everywhere.

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Large businesses and their CEO's are shifting from survival mode to making strategic actions as the pandemic drags on and the economy has reopened.

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Ram Manohar Lohia, George Fernandes and Mulayam Singh Yadav are socialist leaders in the early years following independence who followed some of the same sentiments for renewal of India that are carrying India forward and have helped it cope with the pandemic and other problems. Yadav was chosen for Padma Vibhushan award this year. About Lohia it can be said that he provided a vigorous voice for democratic alternatives during the Nehru period, as did Acharya Kripalani. Both of whom have received less attention in independent India on the verge of its 75th anniversary in 2024 than they deserved.  They and in some ways Mulayam as a student of Lohia provided the voices needed for the vibrant Democracy that is India today, that is a partner for the democracies of the world from the US to Europe to Brazil and Mexico, to South Africa.