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US banks are awash with cash deposits by companies. During the pandemic companies borrowed- at rates close to zero set by the Federal Reserve at the height of the pandemic- in case they needed the money, and deposited cash at the banks. Verizon increased its cash holdings by 45% to 10.2 billion in the 1st quarter of 2021. Now banks in the US are turning down cash deposits by companies which have to carry it on their books earning no interest. Banks cannot lend out the cash deposits as there is not enough demand for loans.

Between late March and May 26 US bank deposits surged to $17.09 trillion, increasing by another $411 billion in April and May, according to the US central bank.

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Dipti Deshpande writes in the Economic Times that how India's economy recovers depends a lot on how well the government tackles the problems of vaccine supplies, vaccination staff and incentives for vaccination to the public, vaccination logistics, and vaccination skepticism. Vaccination plays a large role in the reduction of fear and permits resumption of normal activity as seen in the US, UK and France. Government education of the public on vaccine safety should be conducted on an organized basis across the country starting now for the gaol of vaccinating the entire population by December 2021. In the 200 days remaining in 2021 the government would have to administer over 1000 million doses or at the rate of 5 million doses a day just for the single dose population, with the second dose meaning additional supplies and logistical effort, organized health staffing, all to be organized.  The thrust of this article is that the economy and especially laggard sectors such as services would gain a fully powered recovery if the problems of vaccine supplies and vaccination drives are resolved early with preparation, lessons learned, and proactive action all taking place immediately. The period after the decline in cases to below 50,000 a day which is fast approaching for India is one that needs to be used to take deep yogic breaths, and prepare the Indian mind for the next challenge for government and nation.   ...

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Already vaccination experts at the Baylor College of Medicine cited here say they foresee another wave of the coronavirus in the Southern US because of vaccine skepticism barriers to vaccination, and much of the population not being vaccinated. The percentage of the population in the Carolinas, Georgia, Georgia and Louisiana, that has both doses of vaccine is low. About 50% have had just one dose. In southern states Mississippi and Alabama the vaccination rates are much lower leaving large parts of the population unvaccinated. The widespread presence of the Delta variant in the UK and the R rate being between 1.00 and 1.2 in UK shows that the UK even with higher vaccination rates than the US is still facing a danger of another wave as it reopens.  The ominous aspect of this is that from just over 400,000 the vaccinations per day dropped to 316,000i n the US. This means there will be a period when vaccination drive is stalled while the reopening is fully underway with a new contagious variant twice as contagious as the original coronavirus. This leaves the US at risk of another wave, with the south and western US, younger people who are out more and unvaccinated, more at risk.  ...

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The Biden vaccination target of 70% of American adults at least partially vaccinated with one dose by July 4, 2021 remains elusive as vaccination rates have dropped. From a high of 2 million a day vaccinations have dropped to 400,000 a day during the first week of June 2021. Vaccination skepticism particularly in the south and western part of the US is making it harder to vaccinate the rest of the US population. This poses increasing risks as the new variants of the virus such as the Delta variant found in India, and now the most widely prevalent strain of virus in the UK, remain a serious problem. The unvaccinated population in the US is too large for any degree of safety in numbers vaccinated. Consider that at the press briefing given by the White House on June 3, 2021, only 28 states out of 51 states have fully vaccinated 50% or more of their population. There is a large variation between different states with states in the south such as Mississippi as low as 34% at least one dose and a similar situation in Alabama. In Arkansas, Georgia, Carolinas, and Louisiana  it is higher at about 50% with at least one dose. Even these figures are deceiving as in some parishes in Louisiana only 20% have even one dose. Studies show that only after the second dose are enough antibodies released to protect well against coronavirus. This is why vaccine experts at Baylor College of Medicine cited in NYT foresee a second wave in the southern US because of the South so underachieving in the case of vaccination.  ...

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Five US Treasury Secretaries talk about their plan to fix tax evasion- no questions answered why they did not fix it when they were in office going back in the years of presidents Obama, Bush, Clinton. These were lost decades for American infrastructure and neglected American manufacturing supply chains. It will take years to repair that damage.

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So far Covax Africa is proving to be a failure. Consider the numbers 1 billion people only 31 million vaccines given. Another wave of the virus is underway with 130% rise in cases in Uganda, increase taking place in DRC, Namibia. About 30% increase in cases for all of Africa this week. The new Delta variant that is twice as contagious as the original virus is widespread in the UK and is an unacceptable risk in Africa and in Europe and the US.


 By comparison India has 1.2 billion people and 230 million people vaccinated with at least one dose.

US has 330 million people and has adminstered 300 million doses. UK and Brazil have each adminstered over 70 million doses.

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The US Senate approves $250 billion in new funding for the US to develop independent supply chains in critical products and materials. Ten new semiconductor plants will be built. The effort is designed to ensure the US is not dependent on outside sources that prove unreliable in a crisis. The pandemic has brought home the lesson as this was experienced in 2020 and 2021 with the US too dependent on supply from overseas.

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In some countries such as Tanzania and Chad the vaccination drives have not even begun says this report in the DW.com. A new surge now underway in Africa as cases increase by 30% in June comes at abad time with African vaccination drives stalled. Only 31 million doses adminstered in Africa for a population of 1 billion people. Less than 1% of world vaccine supplies are going to poor countries in Africa and Latin America.

Vaccine companies chose to sell their vaccines to the highest bidders, putting Covax  behind. Aims of Covax are also coming down and watered down to vaccinating 20% or 30% of the population in poor countries, says this report in DW.com.

This means new variants could develop and move back to Asia and Europe, the US in 2022. It means the coronavirus could affect African economies in 2022 and beyond.

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The succumbing ethical roles of Ivy League graduates is the topic of this article in the WSJ. The author says that deprived of good role models at Ivy League universities they are not as good material to become good leaders themselves than students of less well known schools and state universities. Eisenhower and Truman some of the country's most respected presidents in the 1940's and 1950's came from ordinary schools and struggled through jobs and long hours to provide the leadership the country required at the time. During the pandemic the country needs this kind of basics of leadership and character in its young people.

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This report on Danish wind energy company Orsted, looks at the journey of the largest developer of wind energy in the world from a company sending natural gas from North Sea to Europe to a joint developer with Denmark's Vestas of offshore wind farms. Last year Orsted, pronounced Ehrr-sted in Danish for the O and named after a Danish scientist, decided to invest $57 billion in offshore wind farms by 2027. It was not easy and the path required a bold vision and bold action to invest in wind energy for the long term even as debt piled up from losses in natural gas competing with coal, climate change committments were not yet strong, subsidies were required to make wind energy competitive, and debt was piling up. It would take a decade of hard work and technological innovation to produce wind energy that could outcompete coal and natural gas on cost without subsidies. The year is 2009 with the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The predecessor company to Orsted was losing money in natural gas with lower cost coal energy generation in Europe at the time. Yet the mood was changing governments were willing to invest in renewables. In 2012 a new CEO Paulsen did a review of 12 businesses of this Danish energy company and decided wind energy was the only one with long term prospects. The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference created new awareness for the need to come up with a long term solution for energy that has no negative health effects and is renewable. That Conference set a goal of 20% for renewable energy by 2020 in the total mix for Europe up from 14%. Paulsen saw an opportunity in the crisis at the company then called Danish Oil and Natural Gas. The new company was called Orsted and the old divisions in fossil energy were sold to invest in wind farms offshore. The way Paulsen saw the situation was that the company had to take radical action whether it wanted to do so or not. By 2012 Danish pension funds were investing in large offshore wind farms of Orsted, taking a stake of as much as 50% in the Nysted wind farm. The Danish government which owned 80% of Orsted thought its projects were risky. Hard work with Vestas which builds the turbines in Denmark paid off in developing a huge new turbine that would bring costs down 65% comparing 2020 with 2012.  In 2018 the European Union was spending about 92 billion euros or $112 billion on energy subsidies including to wind farms. Britain also heavily subsidized offshore wind farms such as Hornsea 1 at about $198 a megawatt hour for 15 years double the electricity price in recent years. Windy conditions and shallow waters in the North Sea were favorable. Technology was being developed with Vestas which would reduce the cost each year. By 2016 Orsted was listed in Copenhagen. The remaining oil and gas business was then sold for $1 billion. The returns are less in wind than coal and natural gas- about 7-8% a year but the big thing is that there is certainty in this compared to coal and natural gas which are volatile and uncertain. The lesson companies are learning in renewables is that with solar and wind technology can. bring down costs, a lot of hard work and creative work lies ahead, that crisis can be turned into opportunity for companies that can be focussed enough to produce results. ...

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A drop in the positivity rate to below 5% and cases dropping to below 100,000 after peaking at 400,000 in May. This report in the Indian Express looks at the details behind India's successful effort at bringing down the cases that was done over a period of 30 days with a combination of effort from the central government, state governments and healthcare workers. The turnaround was achieved effectively in Uttar Pradesh a state of 210 million people so that per thousand population had dropped to below that in the US state of Michigan about 2 weeks before that was achieved in Michigan. This was the result of an extraordinary effort at all levels in India.

Risks of the new variant exist in all countries that are reopening aggressively. Talk about huge open air concerts and filled sports stadiums in the US show that complacency can happen as countries reopen.