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The first farmer in recent history to become president of the US, 1977-1981, Jimmy Carter ran a peanut farm in the southern state of Georgia. He also served in the US Navy under Admiral Rickover. Rickover hired Jimmy Carter for the US early submarine program in 1949. It was Jimmy Carter's loss to Ronald Reagan that made the Democrat a rare one term president. The Iran hostage crisis happened during the election year 1980 which may have shifted the election in the Republican Reagan's favor. The economy also suffered from high inflation and lower growth during this period leading to the loss of the presidency for Carter. The incidents leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall happened during the Reagan presidency. This led to the period of three decades when the free market, less regulation period led to the 2009 economic crisis and the earlier breakup of the Soviet Union leading to the economic crisis in the early period in Russia. It was during this period that 2 Democrats president Clinton and Obama tacitly accepted the Reagan era policies of free markets and less regulation. This period is now coming to a close with the pandemic and a reassessment of what has happened. During that period Clinton paved the way for China's admission into the World Trade Organization. The lack of regulation has led to Section 230 leading to a proliferation of undesirable content on the internet, with support for regulation in the Us Congress. US policy is also moving to support its own industries something the Reagan policies saw negatively, particularly chip manufacturing where the US has lost its leadership role. The period that ended the Carter presidency is thus an inflection point that is now reversing itself decades later with the sense that government staying away from the economy is not a desirable thing. ...

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Anton Troianovski presents how things are seen by Russians and in Russia of  the Biden Putin meeting. Mr. Putin says in an NBC interview that he sees president Biden "as a professional who has spent all his life in politics." Putin compared this with Mr. Trump who he thought was relatively unprepared, new to politics by comparison who was unable to deliver on the friendlier policy he had promised, and instead delivered too many impulsive moments in the relationship. This has helped set the relationship of the US with Russia on a "stable and predictable basis." Russian experts say the Russian president was seen badly by the American political class, and not just badly, "insultingly badly" creating a rift at another level. Biden is seen as a member of  the old school in a good sense, one expert says, who as senator visited the US for talks on limiting nuclear weapons in 1979 and in the 1980's, who knows Russia and who has genuine respect for Russia as a country, and sees it possible for adversaries to work together for some overriding interests. Some Russians are are nostalgic for that time when Russia was treated with respect and as an equal. For Biden and America the priorities are for America to achieve the economic rebuilding that is needed, to bring back hope at the time of the losses from the pandemic, the positive message is genuine. One Russian expert says this summit has huge meaning for Russians. It tell them the US has a desire to set a kind of positive agenda. At the time of the worldwide pandemic, and with so much rebuilding to be done, it comes as a fresh breeze for both nations and for Europe, and the rest of the world. Biden has done the right thing for America and for the world. ...

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The problems that hit the UK economy with the announcement of unfunded tax cuts were worsened by very poor communications, the cavalier attitude of the new Truss government and finance minister Kwarteng, and a lack of experience, says this report in the WSJ.The toxic mix of inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the US, and the conflicting messages from the Conservative party with critics within the Conservatives calling the step misguided, had a strong impact on financial markets. Yields on British government bonds jumped beyond that of Greece and Italy, and the British pound fell with large drops in its value falling to 1.03 to the US dollar. Only the intervention by the Bank of England helped recover the pound to $1.11 and yields that went up from 3.6% to over 5% to drop back down to 3.8%. Many other countries face the same high inflation and rising interest rates in the US, so that poorly managed political situations such as the leadership race in the Conservatives party in the UK can have damaging economic consequences. This is a point of caution for other countries economies and governments says the WSJ. Italy's new government coalition has managed to keep expectations of major changes to policy to the Draghi government to the minimum in anticipation of economic problems that could emerge with differences with the European Union, and to avoid poorly managed communications. This is true of all countries in the world and a reminder of the importance of correct messaging in financial markets, and taking a prudent role of funding extra spending programs. This was also done in the $360 billion Inflation Reduction Act and Climate bill of 2022 by the Biden administration. where the dollar spending was adequately accounted for with policies considered prudent to tackle climate change, support badly impacted segments of society, and new infrastructure. This is a learning lesson for other governments. ...

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By drawing a comparison of China's aggressive flights close to Taiwan to the invasion of Ukraine, president Biden brings clarity to the US position on Taiwan. He says in Tokyo during his Asian trip that China "was flirting with danger" through its aggressive posture on Taiwan. President Biden made his remarks during a press conference with prime minister Fumio Kishida of Japan in Tokyo. This is what the BBC says about his remarks-  The US president began the press conference by directly linking the China-Taiwan situation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying that the Russian president was "attempting to eliminate the identity of Ukraine." If there was rapprochement eventually between Ukraine and Russia and sanctions were not sustained, "then what does this signal to China about the costs of attempting to take Taiwan by force?" "They are flirting with danger already by flying so close and all the manoeuvres they are undertaking," Biden said, referring to increasing reports of Chinese warplane incursions into Taiwanese airspace. This suggests that the Asian trip of president Biden is bringing with it America's new Asia policy of building strong economic and defense partnerships in Asia. The US president also looks beyond today's conflict in Ukraine to an eventual rapprochement and end of sanctions as a possible scenario in Europe, and sees Asia as the region for America to build new supply chains that strengthen America and its partners, with a new partnership being formed with India, Indonesia and Vietnam, and with other ASEAN nations. In a way Biden and Republicans see the challenge from emerging powers in Asia as similar to the one from Japan in the thirties and the eighties, to be met with the combined economic strength of the US and Europe.  ...

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"The whites are here to stay," a line in a paper prepared by Kissinger set the policies of the Nixon administration supporting Apartheid in Africa. NYT in this report on Kissinger points to his involvement of the US in the Angolan civil war on the side of South Africa as he did not understand the popularity of liberation movements. Kissinger was steeped in the Austrian and German politics of his original home country Germany from the Napoleonic period to 1914 covering Metternich in Austria-Hungary and Bismarck in Germany. He also failed to grasp the popularity of liberation movements in Indochina. As a result of these policies many many hundreds of thousands of lives were lost, which cannot be said of Secretaries of State before him. Jefferson, Madison and Adams, and Seward for Abraham Lincoln, Elihu Root for Teddy Roosevelt, Cordell Hull for FDR, George Marshall and Dean Acheson for Harry Truman, John Foster Dulles for Eisenhower, George Shultz for Reagan. Kissinger served only for 3 years and the lives lost are incredibly large. We think of Geroge Marshall and the Marshall Plan that rebuilt post war Europe, Seward's role with Lincoln in the Civil War, and Cordell Hull's fight for freedom of Asian countries including India under Gandhi.  And we can see why there are such strong opinions for Kissinger almost seeing Kissinger as a Napoleonic figure where power faced the hundreds of thousands of lives lost with complete indifference. There is the opening to China yet this happened simply because as a coincidence of events in China in 1970 after the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution led to Lin Piao incident and China seeking a connection to the US more than Kissinger's own policy or plans. David Sanger's account of his conversation with Kissinger simply says he just "shut up and took notes."  ...

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A small group of advisers and Macon including Nicholas Sarkozy of the Les Republicains voted to have new elections. Les Republicains governed France under presidents De Gaulle and some of De Gaulle administration members Pompidou, Giscard and Sarkozy. Sarkozy was seen as aloof and was succeeded by the Socialist party's Francois Hollande. At that point in 2017 at the end of Hollande's term the Socialists failed to take up working class families issues, and it marked the beginning of the National Rally of Jean and Marine Le Pen gaining worker support. Macron was a minister in the Hollande government who detected an opportunity in the loss of support for both Sarkozy's Les Republicains and Hollande's Socialists. He set up his own movement for renewal of France saying France needed newer people than the old administrations and got an infusion of support from young people. Yet Macron lacked a specific program to get back the voter support of working class families as he implemented policy on climate without addressing concerns of cost of living leading to yellow vest protests. He was reelected im a close election with a challenge from National Rally 58% to 42% in second round after having only 5% point margin over Le Pen in first round, with help from the left vote. Macron spent the first two years of second term fighting the unions and labor over pension reform, when his measures failed to pass the Assembly he used executive action. As a result support in small towns and other parts of France has shifted to National Rally, with the immigration issue adding to support and young people frustrated by Macron not tackling key issues of working class people decided to shift to the National Rally and to Melenchon left party, and to Socialist parties. As Macron is closely allied with Les Republicains ideology he is looking for away to rebuild the LR and his EN Marche as an alternative in 2027 presidential elections. ...

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This report in WSJ by Thomas, Hughes and Wise says despite the concerns about Biden he is tied with Trump at 46% in a recent Ipsos Wash Post survey of voters. Lyrarc.com's Analysis of readers comments of WSJ, NYT and Wash Post reports on Biden for the last week show that most readers support Biden and see the media overreaching and lacking balance and good judgement in reporting. This report also shows 42% of Democrats support Biden continuing his candidacy. There is clearly misinformation with 4 specific examples of gross distortion of images of the president spread online, cited in reports. A true grass roots assessment would show a large majority of Democrats support the president once the dust has cleared. Lyrarc's assessment of the President at the NATO press conference Q and A gives the president a 9 out of 10 for the sharpness and ability to handle a huge number of details and complex policy issues, and for his delivery and viewer comprehension. Biden explained complex issues in simple plain English which also stands out. On the same day India's Modi said he was glad to be welcomed by Australia when he was in Vienna, Austria, with its chancellor, correcting it immediately. No one mentioned it even though it happened twice for Modi. Media made it their headline for Biden for similar mixing up and immediate correction. Going over complex issues for 60 minutes with 9 reporters in A+ fashion- no mention at all by the Media. In Movement for Global Literacy we cited the low degree of confidence and trust in media- only 20% of the American people trust the media such as the TV news shows and the newspapers. To know the true picture go directly to the grassroots and find out in every part of the Union. Lincoln,TR, FSR and Truman all in their own way faced the twisted rhetoric of politicians and the media in their time, yet retained the confidence of Ameica. ...

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"The NHS is on its knees," says Starmer, one more reaon to ban outdoor smoking. Labor in 2007 put the ban on indoor smoking. Sunak had a plan for the Tories to ban smoking. Starmer is now following this to reduce the burden on the NHS and improve public health in the UK. The bill would gradually ban smoking for people born after 2009, an idea proposed by Sunak and the Conservatives. The bill would place new restrictions on outdoor smoking, including outdoor spaces at, and pavements outside, clubs and restaurants, as well as at universities, children’s play areas and small parks. Asked about this during a visit to Paris, Starmer said: “My starting point on this is to remind everybody that over 80,000 people lose their lives every year because of smoking,” he said. “That is a preventable death, it’s a huge burden on the NHS and, of course, it is a burden on the taxpayer. So, yes, we are going to take decisions in this space, more details will be revealed, but this is a preventable series of deaths and we’ve got to take action to reduce the burden on the NHS and the taxpayer.”  The prime minister said-“It is important to get the balance right, but everybody … who uses the NHS will know that it’s on its knees.” Dr Layla McCay, the director of policy at the NHS Confederation, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It is absolutely the health challenge of our time. It’s the leading cause of preventable illness in the UK, so we are heartened to see that progress is being made and that the intention is moving forward to really address one of Britain’s main drivers of health inequalities.” ...

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As Russia makes gains in the whole Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine the UK approves use of its long range missiles inside Russia. Biden is on the verge of making a similar decision as Iran sends long range ballistic missiles to Russia according to reports in NYT. Use of American long range missiles is not expected to affect Russia's overall military position in the Donetsk region in the east. The US and president Biden has only reluctantly provided support for use of US weapons systems to not risk escalating the war. Even artillery on the Russian side was off the list of approved use till Russia used it in Kharkiv border region at which point it was approved. Russians see Kiev as the origin of the Russian State in the 1400's, and eastern region of Donetsk as Russian if western Ukraine seeks to join NATO and EU. Britain has opposed Russia since 1750 as it saw Russia as the threat to an Empire it was building in South Asia, in India that financially supported its Empire worldwide. Britain has a long history of engaging Russia in conflict to protect British trade interests and expand its imperial influence as in the Crimean War fought in 1850's against Russia with the French to gain control of the Ottoman Empire and its Arab states for its trade and imperial interests. Republicans other than Mr. Trump and his supporters are for stronger support to Ukraine following US policy of opposing invasion to achieve military goals since 1900 against the Japanese in China and the Vietnam War was fought on the same basis in the 1960's considering the South Vietnamese state as an independent republic, just  invaded by the north, by North Vietnam, just as the US had done in the Korean War between North and South Korea. In the Vietnam War nationalism played apart with the Vietnamese nationalism prevailing by 1970.   ...

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In this interview with Herndon of the NYT Bernie Sanders refutes the labels "progressive" or "left" and says it is simply about policy that benefits the workers and families that make up the vast majority of this Nation. Sanders says 60% of workers are living from paycheck to paycheck. The vast majority of people 60-70% support Medicare for All, improvements in Social Security, cutting pharmaceutical costs, and tution support to make higher education accessible to all. Why he asks do workers support Trump? He says it is because the truth is that the Democratic party has abandoned its roots. He does not go into this, yet it can be said that the rise of the Tech industry in the last two decades has led to tech billionaires and business people coopting the Democratic party for their agenda. In the last year of the Obama administration it was evident that Rural America and people who represent rural America such as Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack of Iowa felt ignored while Obama spent more time with tech and internet business people. Former president Trump simply stepped into this void as Democrats failed to turn up for rural America. President Biden has turned things around by making Tom Vilsack an important part of his administrations with the president listening to  him and others speaking for rural America. The passion with which Senator Pat Schumer talked recently on CBS Face the Nation about bringing broadband to rural America shows how Biden and Harris, Harris and Walz see Rural America. This Democratic ticket is fighting for Rural America every step of the way to bring hope and a better life to Rural America. Sanders reminds people of FDR in 1936 after four years of fighting the Depression and improving lives there was so much that needed to be done. It is the same today and Sanders is wading into this fight with Harris and Walz in the same way as FDR did in 1936. ...

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Does the ICC, the International Criminal court have jurisdiction over US policy in the Western Hemisphere? The ICC was founded in 1998 with the Rome Statute which was signed by US president Clinton but never ratified. President Bush unsigned for the US and Congress passed the ASPCA American Servicemen's Protection Act to protect Americans in the armed forces from prosecution by ICC. The US sees the ICC as infringing on its sovereignty. As most UN institutions with members from 125 (ICC) or 193 countries (UN) the tendency or bias is to be critical of the US in a "anti-imperialist" sense and for European states that practiced colonialism to also have the same tendencies. For instance the Monroe Doctrine was to keep European colonial powers out of the western hemisphere, out of Latin America, so that institutions modeled on the US and the UK including democratic representation, courts and rule of law could thrive. In today's context it is for the US to keep drug trafficking gangs and crime out of the western hemisphere. The ICC easily ignores the lack of rule of law, drug trafficking, and millions of of refugees, in favor of single incidents where violation has not caused massive harm to tens of millions of people and enormous deaths such as the Mexican drug trafficking that has cost more lives from fentanyl than the Korean, Vietnam and World War 1 combined.  In fact without the US and the UK on which US institutions are modeled, much of the framework of civil liberties, rule of law, independent court, democratic representation would be lost.  The ICC is part of institutions that are answerable to no one and made up of the many independent states emerging from the colonialism of Europeans in the 20th century that have little experience in such institutions that are with science and industry the achievements of the modern world, and in many cases these new and numerous states are proof of egregious violations. It took many centuries for the UK to develop these institutions from the 16th century and the US from the 18th century, and it is American and UK institutions that are the foundations for protecting the rights of citizens and of the people in the modern world. ...

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Lt. Gen Trainor and Michael Gordon describe the situation during the last months of U.S. presence in Iraq. President Obama is ambivalent about the size of the military presence he would like to leave, settling for 3000 troops and a few F-16's from a inital figure of 10,000. Obama sees the presidential election approaching and sets an objective of keeping it minimal. The military cooperation treaty with Iraq has to be approved by a Iraqi parliament with different factions in parliament not likely to approve it. Prime Minister Malliki decides not to move ahead. In the end no military cooperation treaty is signed after 8 years of war and a date is set for a complete withdrawal. Iraqi airspace is used by Iran to ship supplies to Syria's Assad regime, and the U.S. has less leverage in the region as the Arab world goes through a transition to popular government and elections. The Obama administration shifts most of its attention to Afghanistan where the U.S. has no vital stake in the long run compared to the Middle East region, with its large population, growing economies, move towards democracy and meeting the aspirations of hundreds of millions of young people. One Middle Eastern leader says the U.S. had no long term policy under the Obama administration for Iraq, and this applies also to the rest of the Middle East region, and mostly reacted to events as they happened. The Obama administration's committment to the war in Afghanistan, just as it focussed on winding down the war in Iraq, responded to the American public's waning support for the war in Iraq. It did not reduce the total cost of the conflicts because of the initial escalation of the war in Afghanistan and later slow progress towards a negoiated settlement to that conflict. A negotiated settlement is the best the U.S. could achieve, and the best desired objective considering the limited interests in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan most of the dynamics would be determined in the long run by the situation in Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relations, which the U.S. could influence constructively only through dialogue, promoting cooperation between the two countries, and economic relations....

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Bernanke's defense of the action of the Fed's monetary policy making committee, on November 3, 2010, (with a vote of 10-1) to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasury securities over the next 8 months. His defense focusses on the prospects of deflation- how low inflation can morph into deflation (falling prices and wages), that can create a long period of economic stagnation. In addition, with low and falling inflation, Bernanke sees spare capacity in the US that can be utilized to reduce the number of jobless people. He points to the rise in stock prices and fall in long term interest rates in anticipation of the Fed's action, as evidence that this Fed move would improve financial conditions. Lower mortgage rates would make housing more affordable, higher stock prices would increase consumer wealth, confidence and spending. Spending would lead to higher incomes and profits for economic expansion, from this viewpoint. The situation in November 2010, was a deepening housing slump anticipated for 2011, gridlock after the 2010 midterm elections and no agreement on additional stimulus for 2011, the need to rebalance the global economy lacking cooperation from China (with China increasing imports and reducing exports and the US increasing exports and reducing imports). Fed's Bernanke does not mention these factors, and only hints at the gridlock towards the end of the statement. This Fed action will push the dollar lower, just as efforts to improve exports and the trade balance are underway. The Fed's committee sees the risks of commodities inflation as an acceptable risk in the current situation, and the use of a cautious approach assessing the purchase program regularly as sufficient measure of safety. As to difficulties of the unwinding of these policies, the Fed sees present danger outweighing the risks of no action. For emerging markets such as Turkey, India, Australia and other countries seeing even more inflows of capital, the risks are left to these countries to manage. The central banks of India and Australia moved to increase interest rates at the same time that the Fed made its move....

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Talks at the White House between Macron of France and DJT on Feb 24, 2025. DJT says Russian president Putin will accept European and American troops in Ukraine to monitor a peace settlement as a peace keeping force. French troops were offered for such aforce by Macron. DJT says he asked Putin directly this question and the answer was yes for a peacekeeping force to end the war. Analysis by The Times shows Britain and the EU are coming to terms with DJT policy to end the war and Europe shouldering its defense  responsibilities and costs because America has challenges in the Asia Pacific with the rise of China. 

To get an idea of China's resources and capacity it now has over 50% of ship building capacity in the world. The US is only now ramping up its efforts to build ships and increase the effectiveness and size of the US Navy, and a major defense effort is underway.

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A shocking 70% of calories of American children and young people come from industrially manufactured foods and drinks including packaged snacks. A report made by a presidential commission led by Robert Kennedy Jr shows the dire situation for health of American children. The use of ultraprocessed foods and chemical exposure are leading to US children in 2025 being called the "sickest generation." The report assails a faulty medical system which invests too much in research on diseases and does little on understanding and working on prevention of diseases. It assails the "overmedicalization of America's children" and says this has happened because of the pharmaceutical industry's capture of the nation's biomedical apparatus and calls this a stark failure. It says this is a "critical policy failure" where corporate profitability supersedes the health of children. In mental health overdiagnosis and overtreatment are major problems. The report will be discussed at a president Trump event on Thursday, May 22, 2025. ...

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Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's "Worthy Fights" provides a better perspective on the Syria-Iraq conflict- about a conflict in Syria that was the result of president Obama not acting when a "red line" of the use of chemical weapons was crossed. A similiar point is made by U.S. Secretary of State Clinton. Both advisors to Obama were ignored in favor of Mr. Donilon and other White House adviosrs who lacked the experience of Panetta and Clinton. On the Iraq conflict Maliki's misguided sectarian policies were not sufficiently constrained by U.S. effort to preserve earlier hard won gains under the Bush administration. At the end of the Bush administration Iraq was returning to a peaceful period and the war had largely been won against old Saddam loyalists in Anbar province. Ultimately Obama's lack of experience in foreign policy and his failure to heed the advice of people with that experience such as Panetta and Clinton, was the basis of the crisis inadvertently created in Syria by a tendency of inaction. The Syrian situation was not fully grasped as leaving Sunnis to suffer Assad regime air attacks creating 2 million refugees, something that should have prompted action by the international community. With Sarkozy gone in France and Cameron unable to convince the U.S. alone, or move forward with the French unilaterally, the inaction phenomenon of the Obama White House left the entire Sunni communty throughout the Middle East without any support as they watched the destruction in Syria. ...

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Blinder cites the reasons why the stock market declines are showing a disconnect with the economy in the U.S. which benefits from low oil prices, and the small impact of a slowdown in China on the U.S. economy. Yet other reasons may account for nervousness of investors, as Grep Ip points out in the WSJ, the lack of support from the Fed with its gradual rate hike path, and lack of support from the Chinese government with its policy of reducing debt and no significant stimulus.

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Ilan Berman, vice president of the Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C., cites former finance minister Alexei Kudrin about capital flight from Russia reaching as high as $160 billion in 2014. This is a result of Russian policies in Ukraine that are creating a high degree of uncertainty and investor fears about the Russian economy. The result Kudrin says would be a stagnating economy. This follows the emerging market crisis in the beginning of 2014, which hit Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil. Kudrin is respected for his efforts to strengthen Russia's finances in Putin's first term in office, and left the administration over disagreement with prime minister Medvedev on damage to finances from higher defense spending. This suggests Putin and Medvedev in their first terms as president conducted more prudent policies for the economy than they are doing in Putin's second term. A certain recklessness seems to have crept in as many respected advisors from that period have left over differences in policy, including how protests and the opposition's views should be handled. This includes Medvedev's early efforts after elections for dialogue with the opposition parties which were set aside by Putin. The danger with having a Bolivarist class of tycoons as in Venezuela and some developing countries, instead of wiser heads around him for Putin, is that he will lose the advice and counsel he so badly needs to conduct policies without letting emotions getting the better of a sound judgement. A large foreign exchange reserve is a buffer for Russia, but this needs to be used to diversify the economy away from dependence on oil and commodities by investing in technology industries to create jobs in other fields, and not wasted in higher defense spending and fighting investor sentiment for the value of the ruble. It also shows that there is an inherent value in having a "loyal opposition" and "shadow cabinet," and these institutions were not invented over centuries of practice in government without a reason, in that they actually help the governing administration pursue prudent policy without arbitrary actions. The irony is that the very fears of 1998 repeating itself with the "chaos" of western style democracy and politics and manipulation by oligarchs- a Putin complaint- is reversing the gains made by Russia since then, with another set of tycoons and vested interests in place. Russians, like the Germans can learn to make democracy work without a centuries long history of democratic traditions, elections and free media. Czarist traditions can be overcome just as the Prussian traditions were overcome, and Russians can come up with their own Wily Brandts and Gaucks, leaving behind the old history of suppressing contrary opinions. For this to happen Russians including Mr. Putin need to leave their own fears behind, and trust the Russian people for the right instincts and values and maturity of judgement, just as the Germans have done and succeeded. ...

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How will posterity view Angela Merkel. As she ends a fourth term this BBC News report says it will remain a contested legacy. Much of what went right has already been written. A woman, a pragmatic scientist who hewed to the center not just as a scientist but with a knack for politics. Much of her early period in office was one in which she had to tackle the eurozone crisis. The euro's weakness had its roots in the way Mr Kohl allowed eurozone membership for countries such as Greece without adequate entry requirements. Some of the other problems were also left behind by an overzealous mentor Helmut Kohl who pushed for German reunification that never really happened in terms of bringing all east Germans into the idea of the Federal Republic. These problems in a neglected eastern part of Germany around Dresden were never tackled by Merkel. They were social issues that Merkel's pragmatic thinking failed to grasp. Letting in migrants from Arab and African countries was a move that Merkel made without realizing the full implications. This policy was reversed but led to the emergence of extreme right wing sentiment in parts of the country. It is left to a future German leader to tackle the social and economic disparities that affect Germany today. As time passes people reflect and a more careful view prevails. Dr Rudiger Schmitt-Beck reflects this when he says that the Merkel years were about  a bizarre mix of modernization and backwardness. Merkel rejected nuclear energy after the events at Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan. As a scientist she was able to tackle such issues. Yet on the major social issues of the day Prof. Schmitt-Beck of the University of Mannheim, says she left Germany "grotesquely behind"- on child care, climate policy, digitization, infrastructure building, on demographic change. These are the issues that the Social Democrats and the Greens are standing up for today. Ironically Merkel may be remembered more for something that is not even mentioned in this BBC report. This is the European solidarity shown by action to financially support all EU countries including Italy with EU funding during the coronavirus pandemic.  This may be her biggest achievement because it will be lasting. Without it Europe would not be the better place it is today, resilient in the face of the pandemic.  Seen from outside Merkel will be seen as a German leader who failed to see the potential for India and other Asian countries with almost twice the population of China. Fascinated with 13 visits to China she studied Chinese history, politics and economics, says the WSJ. And did too little to balance Germany's close business and trade ties with China, with efforts in India and other countries. Seen from America as pointed out in the WSJ front page on September 23, Merkel made no effort to rebuild US relations with the Biden administration after the tumultuous period under presidents Obama with spying on her phone and with Mr. Trump over the EU's participation in NATO defense. She seemed resigned to a view that America had seen her best years, a belief that today does not exist anywhere in America. US president Biden's first phone call to Merkel was put off for a few days says the WSJ, and Merkel continued to build close ties with China, ignoring the fact that this was a new administration closer to that of presidents FDR and Harry Truman who did so much for Germany. And a president very different than any of Biden's five predecessors. ...

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The UK based magazine The Economist will maintain its independence after a sale of 50% shares is completed to Exor or some other company. This is because the shares sold are "B" shares. "A" shares and trustee shares will be retained so that the independence of the magazine is not affected. The Economist has increased its circulation to 1.6 million in 2015 from about 1 million in 2006. It reaches a highly educated and upper class audience. The magazine has a unique culture in which journalists debate editorial direction and writers also do editing, with no writer's names mentioned for its short Time magazine type coverage of international topics. It also has a Intelligence and Statistical unit to provide more advanced coverage on some topics such as finance and policy.

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VW bonds take a big hit following the emissions scandal. The annual cost of insuring 10 million euros of VW debt against default for five years is 214,000 euros. VW's cash flow after dividends is estimated at 5 billion euros by Fitch in 2016-2017. What is happening to VW goes beyond the emissions scandal. The overly easy environment for corporate borrowing with the loose monetary policy in Europe and the U.S. has made it easy for corporate borrowers to raise money at really low rates. This environment is about to change with VW being the beginning of a shift. In January 2015 VW raised 1 billion euros, with a 15 year bond and interest rate of 1.625%. This bond has dropped in price to 85.6% of face value.

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Kenneth Volpert, head of taxable fixed-income at Vanguard Group in Valley Forge, Pa, says the weak economy and the Fed's easy monetary policy could lead to higher inflation. Inflation bonds strategists at Barclays Capital says the consumer price index after taking out food and energy is running at an annualized rate of 2.5% over the past 6 months and 2.9% over the past 3 months and is expected to go higher. The yield gap between 10 year TIPS and 10 year nominal Treasury notes, was trading at 2.24 percentage points on August 12, 2011 This means investors expect an annualized average rate of inflation of 2.24% in the U.S. over the next decade. This figure has declined from 2.65% in April, it is up from 1.5% in October 2010.

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The handling of the oil spill by the Obama administration threatens to permanently affect the image of the Obama administration. There may be a spillover effect from BP's ineptness that draws in Obama's and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar's handling of the crisis. The Obama administration relied too much on BP to bring an end to the crisis. And it has not articulated aclear policy for regulation of technologically sophisticated industries like investment banking, deepwater oil drilling and other industries of this type where alot can go wrong. Tough inspections are needed in these industries and strict regulation for the proper operation of capitalism. Financial regulatory reform bills in Congress also have suffered from being whittled down so that strict regulation is far from being a reality to avoid future crises.

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Jacobs takes us back to a time in history when Winston Churchill, as colonial secretary for the British Empire, created countries and geographic borders simply by drawing this on a map. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire during the first world war provided the opportunity to create the borders and states that we know today- Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. This part of history is important to understand what we see today in the Middle East- as it was the first step in the evolution of British, French, and later American policy in the region. Britain's oil interests in Iran determined policies pursued first by Britain, and later by the U.S. in the region, and which reverberate to this day in how Iranians see the world.

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The Case-Shiller Index shows a decline in housing prices of 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011. This follows a drop of 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Of the 20 cities in the index, 12 were at a post-bubble low in March 2011. The yearly drop for Minneapolis was 10%. Only Washington D.C. showed a rise in March and over the year. Housing prices are at 2002 levels. The Center for Economic and Policy Research estimates a decline of 6-8% for the rest of 2011. The excess supply of housing was estimated at 1.8 million units in April 2010 by the financial Blog Calculated Risk, which used 2010 census data for the estimate calculations. The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to 60.8 from a revised 66 in April 2011.