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Private sector financing of $25 billion for a prepackaged bankruptcy with $5 billion from the US government under an option Secretary Paulson is considering is reported by legal experts on November 18. A decision expected by December 25, 2008 but one that tries to deal seriously with the issues facing the automakers rather than just hand over the funds.

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All major industrialized or OECD nations leaders ratings are low or poor in December 2024. Biden's is at 37%, Trudeau of Canada's 26%, Macron of France 19%, Scholz 18%.

Even newly elected Keir Starmer of Britain is about 34%. Ishiba of Japan 22%, Yoon South Korea 18%.

Biden's 37% looks decent in comparison. DJT at less than 50%.

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The 2010 census reveals significant changes in the population mix in the U.S. The number of Hispanic people increased significantly, especially so in the under 18 age group. The Hispanic population went up by 43%, increasing to 50.5 million in 2010, compared to 35.3 million in 2000. Overall Hispanics make up 16% of the U.S. population of 308.7 million. One of the striking facts in the change is that children under age of 18 make up one third of the Hispanic population compared to one fifth for the white population. Texas by itself added 979,000 people under age 18, with 931,000 being Hispanic. 92% of the population growth since 2000-of 25.1 million- came from minorities of all kinds. And mixed race is another major category with nine million people. Asian American population also increased, especially in major cities such as San Francisco, San Jose and New York. Overall 63.7% of people identified as white, 16.3% as Hispanic, 12.2% as black, 4.7% as Asian, 0.7% as American Indian or Alaska natives. New York and Washington saw black populations decline. Detroit dropped out of the top ten cities replaced by San Jose. Chicago's population declined, New York's went up by 2% to 8.2 million people. ...

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DW.com's Becker looks at how much an iPhone would cost if made in the USA. Jason Dedrick of Syracuse University says it would add $20-$30 if final assembly was done in the U.S.. If components and parts were also made in the U.S. this would go up to $80-$90. Other factors are that the production clusters set up by Foxconn have taken three decades to set up and would take time to replicate. President Trump has said Apple should make the iPhones in the U.S. to create jobs. As Foxconn is rapidly adding robots and automation the number of jobs are shrinking in the production process.

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WSJ's Jon Emont shows how a combination of environmental activists, the fires in Indonesian rainforests in 2015- that at one point emitted as much carbon as the US hurting investment in Indonesia- and action taken by the Indonesian government to limit deforestation, have led to cleaning up supply of palm oil through deforestation. Maps show the deforestation that took place before 2015 and between 2015-2021, in Borneo and Sumatra, islands in the Indonesian chain. Opaque supplier connections to plantations all over the country made it difficult to trace the supply of oil from suppliers such as Wanda, KPN and others to Unilever for Dove soap, Mondelez for cookies, and other users of palm oil. It was the concerted and persistent effort of Greenpeace, the Indonesian government and of the companies that made it possible to clean up the supply chain. In 2018-2021 palm oil production increased by only 1%, compared to 22% for the period 2015-2018.

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On April 21, 2022, US president Biden talks to Americans in a live television address and says US will send an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine. And an additional $500 million in economic assistance that takes the total economic assistance to $1 billion. He asks Congress to approve additional requests so that an uninterrupted flow of aid to Ukraine can be maintained to deter Russian aggression. He also opens up a path for direct entry into the US for some of the 5 million Ukrainian refugees. He calls attention to the 5 million refugees and to the millions of displaced children. He says about two thirds of the children in Ukraine are displaced by the war which he found to be shocking.

Biden said "you've got to admit- be amazed at the courage of the country, and of the young men and the young women." 

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The SCHOOL survey by eminent researchers shows that that 37% of rural school children in India are dropping out- an alarming piece of information. Only 8% of rural school children have access to online classes regularly. The figure for urban areas in India is 24% of school children having access to online learning regularly. This could have serious consequences. Getting primary and secondary schoolchildren back into classes is an important goal during the pandemic. Online learning has only a limited reach at this time. Many households have no smartphone or only one smartphone that is used by adults. The SCHOOL survey covered 15 states and 1362 sample households. Between 51 and 58% of students had not met their teachers in the preceding month according to the survey.  This also affects nutrition as schoolchildren are missing the midday meals given at school. Midday meals were discontinued with the closure of schools. Overall this report says 97% of parents support reopening of schools. ...

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Russia's exports to the USA only 3% of total exports, 21% to China, 19% to India, and 16% to Brazil. But does this suggest the Russian economy is insulated It exports natural gas to Germany, its largest trading partner. Are oil exports from Russia to the US so insignificant that they constute only 3% of total exports? This needs to be verified. Russia built the $478 billion reserves based on oil exports. If prices drop this will affect future increases in these reserves and affect foreign investment in the Russian economy, investment it badly needs to modernize. Russia is less affected relative o other countries, but its stock markets dropped 20% after the global markets reacted in cascading effect in January 2008. There is some insulation but not really that much and the case is overstated. Russia is starting out with a smaller manufacturing economy. It badly needs to build this up and the effects of a global slowdown will mean reduced investment than would otherwise occur.

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Kyodo News poll shows over half of voters under 40 years voted for Sanseito and Democratic Party of the  People, two nationalist parties started in the last 5 years. These parties base their appeal on "Japan first" and reject the idea that Japan should have to bring in so many foreign workers to run its industry and economy. They also oppose the country's quiet neighborhoods being overrun by the 40 million tourists in 2024 that the government wants to increase to 60 million to support small businesses that depend on tourists. Half of voters over 60 years vote for the LDP, and this is true also for the socialist party the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) which is the opposition party. This makes the nationalist parties a new voice in Japanese politics. Part of the resentment in Japan is that figures like Shigeru Ishiba. the leader of LDP, are from an older generation that has for the 75 years since 1950 excluded others from party politics. The DPJ was around for just 24 months in Japan in 2009-2010 when its young leader prime minister Yukio Hatoyama was ousted. American leaders and it's party politics establishment before 2016 also encouraged this, with Obama making Okinawa an issue over which Hatoyama was ousted rather than work with the young Japanese prime minister. ...

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Nouriel Roubini has proven correct on global financial issues. He said in an interview on the sidelines of a symposium in Malaysia, that China needs to revalue its currency for its own sake. China will see a growth collapse in the next 2-3 years if it fails to do so. His point is that China can still maintain growth by shifting to domestic consumption and less infrastructure spending and exports. In his view growth should not be affected if China exports less and consumes more. He points to the decrease in consumption as a share of GDP from 45% to 36% in the last ten years- this ratio is 70% in the USA. A cheap yuan keeps foreign goods unaffordable and protects state owned companies which also get cheap credit, as keeping the yuan low requires China to keep interest rates artificially low. What this does is make a massive transfer of income from the household sector to the state owned companies, just at the time when China needs to do the very opposite of this. And compounding the problem is that the 25% of China's GDP that is made up of retained earnings of mostly state owned companies, goes into real estate and production facilities. See the link to David Barboza in the New York Times who points to the wasteful spending and real estate speculation by state owned companies. Roubini cites the automobile sector where capacity has doubled in the last year to 20 million, when the domestic market increased by 50% to 10 million vehicles. The stimulus only increased the effect of surplus capacity and misallocation of investment, with highways to nowhere and brand new airports that are three quarters empty. The Chinese leadership is beginning to grasp this, but the state owned companies and other interests who benefit fromm the old model, may make it difficult to reverse the trends. A lot is at stake in this, as it affects the U.S., as well as countries dependent on China's imports such as Australia, Canada, Brazil and Germany. ...

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Car sales in Germany are up 40% from ayear ago. This is not about to happen in the USA. The cash for clunkers program in Germany is broad and less complicated.In Germany eligible cars have to 9 years old and the subsidy covered the purchase of any new car, regardless of size and fuel efficiency. In the US the program just signed by President Obama covers a narrow profile of customers. In the US customers who benefitare economically challenged and in the midst of adeep recession. Cars can't be over 25 years old, and can't have a combined highway and city fuel economy rating of more than 18 miles per gallon as calculated by EPA. To get the full $4500 credit customers must buy either a new truck or sport utility rated 5mpg higher than the clunker or scrapped vehicle, or a passenger car rated at least 10 mpg higher.And the credit is given instead of the trade in value, so if the trade in value is higher it doesn't help. The German government is giving away upto $4500 but it started out with 1.5 billion euros to get 600,000 clunkers off the road, but because of the popularity of the program has expanded it to 5 billion euros for 2 million cars and extended it to end of 2009. The US program only has $1 billion for 250,000 cars or one eight of what the Germans are doing for amuch larger car market. Because of the dire shape Detroit and much of the midwest is in, because of the slump in the auto industry, this may be a mistake and a missed opportunity to do what the Europeans are doing, and get an even bigger impact. The American car market and industry is taking a severe blow from the deep recession. Because of the depressed region the impact of a real clunkers for cash program that targets a broader profile, with bigger financing and designed to give a boost to the market, could make a real difference. At this point it is more of a program designed to help people turn in their gas guzzling trucks for passenger cars, and those driving a $200 car are not likely to be the kind of customer who goes out and buys a new car say dealers. See the link to Alan Blinder's stimulus proposal in July 29, 2008, that suggested a $20 billion program even before the current crisis. The present program has only $1 billion....

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China is closing energy inefficient aging factories. The Chinese government plans to close 76 factories in cement, 279 in paper, 175 in steel, and 84 in leather as part of this effort. This still leaves China with a lot of work to do to acheve the 20% reduction per unit of economic output in 2010 compared to 2005, that its current five year plan calls for. Efficiency went up by 14.4% in the first four years of the current plan, but went down by 3.6% in the first quarter causing serious concern.

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Over the last 5 years 2021-2025 Americans who are more excited than concerned about AI has dropped from 18% to 10%, and Americans who are more concerned than excited has grown from 37% to 52%, in Pew Research surveys. Showing that self-interested tech companies such as Microsoft and OpenAI, Google are making loud claims for AI that do not reflect the views of the American people as a whole in 2025.

Americans by large margins in Pew Research believe AI will help in day to day tasks from weather forecasting to inventing new medicines. And by large margins of 40% Americans think AI will hurt ability to think creatively and form meaningful relationships and by 20% will hurt for making difficult decisions. This shows Americans -similar to people in China as reported- believe in using AI for ordinary day to day routine tasks, and are wary of AI and aware that AI's usefulness is limited to such routine tasks only.

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The significance of the economic relationship of UAE and India with the visit of prime minister Modi to Abu Dhabhi on June 28 on the way back from the G7 Summit from Germany. Under recent trade agreements trade with UAE will increase to $100 billion in 5 years. 8 million Indians live in the Gulf region with remittances of over $50 billion a year. During Biden's visit to the region there will be a meeting of a new grouping called 2I2U referring to Israel, India, US and UAE.

Mohamed Bin Zayed or MBZ is a clear proponent of a strong leadership by the US in the region and in Asia and maintaining peace in the region after so many disastrous wars.

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India UK trade has been neglected over the years. In 2021 India accounts for less than 2% of total UK trade. During the period before the pandemic 2010 to 2019 UK exports declined by 3%. During that time the US increased exports to India by 79%, Canada by 62%, and France by 58%, says this report in The Guardian. This happened even though India is the leading country in the British Commonwealth and one would expect much stronger trade ties. This is one reason UK prime minister Boris Johnson is putting a high priority on building up trade with India during his visit to India. UK Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan seeks to double the current 22 billion pounds trade between India and the UK by 2030.

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The revival of NATO in 2022 as America "prepares extensively and carefully" to meet the challenge from Russia as it invades Ukraine. President Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Germany's Scholz and America's Biden form a partnership as the Europeans and Americans join together to defend the interests of Europe, America, Latin America, India and other Asia, Africa, the entire free world in a way that FDR and Truman, with Adenauer defended the free world after the Berlin Airlift in 1948. Biden tells Europe and America the days ahead will be hard but America and Europe and the allies in Japan, India and the rest of Asia, Latin America, Africa, are resolved to met this challenge.

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The French British collaboration effort will bring a new vaccine to the global effort against coronavirus. This vaccine was expected in February 21. It will be ready by the third quarter of 2021 just as vaccine supplies are being ramped up. The Sanofi Pasteur unit and GSK Glaxo SmithKline are the two companies in this vaccine venture. This vaccine will address the problem of new mutations of the virus in the British and South African versions and can be stored at normal temperatures. 
 

The new vaccines will boost supplies just when the situation is bleak for vaccine supplies in Latin America and Africa, South East Asia, places left out in the vaccine race in advanced countries and in India. Britain has ordered 60 million doses. 

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Britain is too dependent on China for 71 goods that are critical for infrastructure and the economy, says the Jackson Society. This includes industrial chemicals, metal products, and consumer electronics such as mobile phones and laptops.

A group of 20 conservative MP's are seeking an amendment for a trade bill going through parliament, and calling for an audit of imported goods from China, and efforts to make trade deals that reduce this dependency. The group of MP's has written to Liz Truss, the Trade Secretary, and includes former ministers Ian Duncan Smith, David Davis, Owen Paterson. The group of MP's says that the coronavirus pandemic has made all nations reassess their approach to trade and supply chains for security.

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US banks are awash with cash deposits by companies. During the pandemic companies borrowed- at rates close to zero set by the Federal Reserve at the height of the pandemic- in case they needed the money, and deposited cash at the banks. Verizon increased its cash holdings by 45% to 10.2 billion in the 1st quarter of 2021. Now banks in the US are turning down cash deposits by companies which have to carry it on their books earning no interest. Banks cannot lend out the cash deposits as there is not enough demand for loans.

Between late March and May 26 US bank deposits surged to $17.09 trillion, increasing by another $411 billion in April and May, according to the US central bank.

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Sector by sector infrastructure reviews chaired by the prime minister have resumed as the coronavirus cases fall below 50,000 a day on June 26. The prime minister has done a detailed review from a few ministries including transport and civil aviation. Before the pandemic such reviews were done every quarter. A separate presentation by each sector is given to the full council of ministers so that all ministers are aware of the problems and how they are tackled by each ministry.

Before the second wave of the pandemic the prime minister had met with private industry partners in infrastructure development to push forward with significant progress. The task now is for quick implementation so that time lost from the second wave can be made up.

 

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A cargo ship hits Francis Scott Key Bridge which crosses outer Baltimore harbour and the bridge collapses on March 27, 2024. Pictures capture the bridge actually collapsing right in front of our eyes, a reminder of the infrastructure building that was neglected for so long during a period of foreign wars in remote mountains and deserts of the Middle East, and a period of tech and other monopolies where corporations paid less in taxes than teachers, nurses and childcare workers, both depriving the government of needed revenues for nation building infrastructure, and needed investments in manufacturing, health, education, reversing climate change. A period of neglect and lost decades which president Biden and a bipartisan group of Congressman are only now reversing with no time to lose.

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Stancati and Walker report from Rome on Italy's latest election and the change in government as Giorgia Meloni wins 26% of the vote to form a new government. Her Brothers of Italy party has links to 1930's Italy, which Meloni is attempting to transform into a modern version that speaks for mothers, the Catholics and Italy. Italy has seen 70 governments in a short period with a highly fragmented and changing political scene. The analysis in BBC says this government could last only as long as it retains the support of people as governments have changed so quickly in Italy. Her partners in her coalition Mr. Berlusconi and Mr. Salvini have also won and lost public opinion in different periods in the last decade.

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Us stock market gains of 24% in 2023 are seen as a surprise after fears of Fed tightening leading to a downturn. Instead inflation has come down and with government investment in infrastructure and bringing factories back to the US, boosting US manufacturing, the US is building a stronger economy. A related WSJ article has graphs that show over 50% of US households owning stocks so that the gains in stocks since 2020 are now more widely shared in the US population. Along with wage gains and bringing down the cost of living and moderating housing costs it sets the stage for a recovery of America from the free market experiments that followed after Reagan leading to the 2009 financial crisis, neglect of manufacturing and shipping of factories overseas.

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How India finds and trains its youngest sports athletes is shown in this report from Fatehabad by Andrew Amson. A bricklayer's daughter Pooja set the Indian national record at 1.82 metres in high jump by winning silver at the Asian U-20 Games in South Korea. The amazing thing is that coaches discovered her talent for jumping even though she entered in training for yoga. With limited facilities she trained with bundles of haysticks for the pit to fall on and a bamboo stick to go over. This is also a story of how India is matching the development of sports of its neighbors Japan, China and South Korea by giving young people from every background and income level a chance to compete at the highest level. 

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 After a landslide win in the recent election with 56% of the vote, Gabriel Boric, 36 years, will work for a fair deal for ordinary Chileans. His win comes after years of street protests calling for a fair deal including pensions, transport services, and better income distribution. The protests called for writing a new constitution to replace the one written by dictator Pinochet. Chile has grown increasingly polarized with younger generation favoring change and fairness and many of the older generation favoring the system left by dictator Pinochet.

Chile is described as an economic success story but it is a highly unequal society with 1% of the people owning 25% of the wealth, and about half of the people seen as economically vulnerable, says this report in The Guardian.