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The first presidential debate with Clinton and Trump is moderated by Lester Holt. The debate included an exchange on Trump's tax returns, policing in inner cities, and national security. The debate was broadcast by all television stations and was watched by over 100 million viewers. Trump made three times the interruptions made by Clinton. The birther issue raised by Trump also came up, and was cited as a "hurtful lie" by Clinton as it persisted long after the birth certificate information was seen by the public. In one exchange Clinton told Trump when he referred to all the infrastructure that had not been built, that one of the reasons was he had not payed taxes.

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Peter Coy of Bloomberg Business Week points out that the debt ceiling and proposed deficit reductions in the range of $4 trillion really obscure the real size of the problem which is much larger. The real problems hit when the U.S. faces a larger graying population by 2020 with sharply higher per capita health care spending; and at the same time workers from this generation retire and become beneficiaries of Social Security and Medicare with fewer younger workers to support the system with tax revenues. Another problem is that older Americans are likely as a voting bloc to vote themselves benefits that will cost the younger generation, benefits that the younger generation will not be able to enjoy. Even the Paul Ryan plan with its cuts to Medicare insulated todays seniors from the sharp cuts, as it becomes political necessity for both Republicans and Democrats to shy away from touching the current beneficiaries.

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The trade adjustment assistance bill failed to win passage in the U.S. House of Representatives with 86 Republicans and 40 Democrats in favor, and 303 members voting against it. The Republican leadership passed a bill that gives the president trade negotiating authority without the trade adjustment assistance legislation and this passed the House in 219 to 211 vote. The Senate earlier passed legislation with the trade adjustment assistance included in fast track trade negotiating authority, making it necessary for the Senate to pass a new bill similiar to the House excluding trade adjustment assistance.

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Petrobras and the discovery 200 miles offfshore of the Tupi field with estimated reserves of 5-8 billion barrels of light crude oil. As Brazil is self sufficient in energy with its own ethanol industry helping substitute ethanol for oil at the pump, it can become a major exporter with this find. However even with Petrobras technology and expertise in offshore drilling its a challenge as the oil is 4.5 miles below the oceans surface, and involves drilling through 7000 feet of water and 17000 feet of sand rock and massive salt layer. Cost could approach $20 billion according to analysts with current inflation in oil drilling rig costs. It involves challenges like building floating liquefied natural gas plants. Gabrielli, the Petrobras CEO thinks Petrobras has the expertise to develop it on its own. If oil majors are given the chance to join in the development the investment terms will be ones that favor Brazil. Gabrielli pointed this out saying that Brazil had already incurred most of the risk in exploration offshore so the oil majors have far less risk and Brazil should invite them only on its own terms if needed. The Tupi field puts Brazil ahead of Canada in oil reserves and in the leagues of China and Nigeria, with new Brazilian reserves at 17.2 billion from the 12.2 billion barrels currently. Brazil has invested in refineries with 2 new refineries coming up in 2010 and 2014 to increase refining capacity by 40%. It is also investing to convert heavy crude oil into diesel and $8.6 billion to reduce sulfur at 11 refineries. The Tupi field will take about 7 years to develop. Similiarly the Kashgan field in the Caspian in Kazakhstan is also in difficult in this case icy and gases filled environment that will take years for a Eni led consortium to develop. When oil does come will the demand situation have changed with new conservation taking hold in the developed world and the cars in developing countries more like the Tata Nano at 54 miles per gallon consuming less gasoline? Even with increase in energy needs of developing countries, improved efficiency and new technology for conservation brought into developing countries could if not significantly reduce, at least moderate demand. To the point where prices drop from $100 a barrel to something more affordable to developing countries....

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New Harvard Medical School studies showing importance of lithium in the brain to prevent Alzheimer amyloid plaques and tau tangles, shown in this report of Washington Post by Mark Johnson. The studies at Harvrd Medical School will appear in Journal Nature. A 2017 study in Denmark showed presence of lithium in drinking water lowering dementia. The studies done on mice have to be now tested on humans. The brain uses only very small amounts of lithium to maintain the good functioning and prevent plaques and help neurons to communicate and talk with one another. Lithium helps form the myelin that coats and insulates the communication lines and helps microligial cells clear cellular debris.

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Germany will get 4.5 billion euros in compensation for taking in refugees to cope with financial burden of taking in 1.7 million refugees since 2013. It covers the budget for 2021-2027. The EU will pay Germany 2800 euros for each refugee taken in who stayed.

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A second term Trump-Vance will face uphill risks and a mess in economics from a Trumpian Republican party and Congress, says WSJ. WSJ Editorial Board says a second Trump term is not without risks. Tariffs cost 1.1% in annual growth in the Trump first term says WSJ, and it did have an impact on inflation. It would have had greater impact on inflation with the supply chain crisis of Biden's first term, had this supply chain crisis happened in Trump's first term. A second term Trump-Vance support tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports which would have a bigger effect on inflation and economic growth than of the first term. The key difference is that with tax cuts a basic rule for Republican policies Trump-Vance second term would not invest in infrastructure the way Mr. Biden has done and Biden will do so in a second term. As a result the economic growth is likely to be greater and inflation smaller under a Biden administration. Trillions of dollars in investment in the economy and infrastructure under Biden in a second term will be missing in a Trump-Vance tax cuts administration policy. And with it hundreds of thousand of jobs created each quarter will be missing in Trump-Vance second term. Add to this the level of clarity of stable economic policy under a Biden second term and contrast it with some of the chaos in economic policy of a Trump-Vance second term. The basic contradiction between tax cuts policy and the nation's need for infrastructure spending/rebuilding under a Republican under Trump administration will not go away, present a huge stumbling block. Chaotic policy could come from Project 2025 that says consider abolishing the US central bank Federal Reserve. This kind of erratic and unwise policy proposals are clearly not happening under Biden and Yellen. Another key difference is the cost to the economy of delays of several years in doing nothing for climate in Trump-Vance 2024-2028. Severe effects on climate if nothing is done could cause acceleration of climate negative costs which a future economy under Democrats would face, in reality the Nation would face. America's Business has taken a short term approach to climate change, when the time comes to pay the costs of short term thinking it assumes it is somebody else's problem- this happened with supply chain concentration in China the burden falling on the middle and lower classes, it would happen again with missing climate change action under Trump-Vance second term. ...

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New rules set by Brazil for investment in the oil industry give about 80% of revenues generated back to Brazil. The rules require 30% participation for Petrobras, Brazil's state owned oil company, in all projects and operating of oil fields. The rules also mandate sourcing of equipment inside Brazil to develop local suppliers. Shell and Total, eager to add to oil reserves, will participate in development of the Libra oil field. BP, Chevron and Exxon declined to participate. The Brazilian government faces the difficult choice of keeping as much of the benefits of oil production inside Brazil and yet making it attractive enough for major oil companies with the knowhow for deep water drilling to participate. Delaying development for years means pushing revenue generation further into the future even as the growth rate for Brazil is slowing- down to 0.9% in 2012 and expected to be 2.5% in 2013. The street protests in 2013 making it even more important to show that the benefits of oil production will stay inside Brazil and yet not delay the generation of revenues needed for investment in Brazilian education and infrastructure....

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The $25 billion mortgage settlement of Feb. 2012, between large U.S. banks and state attorneys general. $17 billion will go to homeowners. Experts say this is good for the banks because it reduces legal uncertainty, and for state attoneys general- it will not be enough to significantly impact the difficult situation in the U.S. housing market.

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In the next 15 years approximately India will have a higher percentage of working age population to non-working age population than China, based on information from the UN and Morgan Stanley. The number of people over 64 and under 15 has declined from 69% to 56% in 2010, according to UN figures. By 2020 the working age population will increase by 136 million in India, compared to 23 million in China. From this it can be seen that a huge demographic change is playing out. As China's economy matures and with the one-child policy in place, China's working age population is expected to decline; just as India's working age population picks up. This should give India momentum in the next 15-20 years, and lead to an increasing growth rate in India, just as China's growth rate slows. India's weak areas are infrastructure, and education. Infrastructure development will accelerate nevertheless, with larger private investments and participation in projects; and India will move up the experience curve as more projects are completed. Education for the poorer classes and in public schools will remain a problem. Private schools are making up for the weakness in this area, and private schools now make up 20% of attendance even in the rural areas according to one estimate. The strong points are democratic structures and the rule of law, private enterprise and private companies, English speaking middle class, and smart initiatives by business to develop low cost products that are affordable for all segments of sciety in India. For instance a $35 laptop developed by the IIT and Indian Institute of Science researchers, and Tata Chemicals development of a filter for 30 rupees or 65 cents that would filter water for a month for a family of five. This will bring the benefits of development to all segments of society as development progresses, and is crucial for balanced development in the poorer parts of Asia. Tata Motors 1 lakh ruppees car concept and the Tata Nano as its tangible product, is another verson of this kind of development being pioneered in India. Being a democratic country makes some processes slower, yet at the same time the private initiative enabled by democratic processes -cultivated over a long period from British times -enables a creative sort of development that could be turned into a distinct advantage....

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Prime minister Passos Coelho of Portugal makes the decision not to ask for a precautionary credit line from lenders, as Portugal exits the EU bailout program in April 2014. Portugal received bailout funds of $78 billion euros from the EU, IMF and the ECB in 2011. Portugal's economy is expected to see growth of 1% in the next 2 years. Unemployment declined from 17.7% in the beginning of 2013 to 15.2% in 1st quarter of 2014. Portugal returned to bond markets in April 2014 with 750 million euros of 10 year government bonds at 3.575%. Still Portugal will take a long time to fully recover and the EU will continue to monitor its financial position. The last loan to the IMF is scheduled for repayment in 2024 and to the EU in 2042. Exports and a return to bond markets are the two bright areas, but the government debt continued to climb from 94% in 2010 to 129% in 2014. A 15% unemployment rate and mere 1% growth through 2015 suggests a slow recovery similiar to Spain.

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CreditSights, a New York research firm says about $33 billion in losses from home equity loans will hit the five largest banks in the latter part of 2010, an amount equal to what they expect in earnings for 2010. This would have an adverse effect on the banks and has the potential to stall the economic recovery.

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Faces of migrants to Germany as Germany sees the migrants as what German chancellor Merkel calls- "A huge national challenge, not only for days or months, but for a long period of time." German civil society shows openness, and German educational institutions offer support. About 800,000 refugees will be accepted in Germany in 2015, says Merkel. An adult migrant is given 143 euros a month for pocket money and 216 euros for basic needs, medical costs are covered. Children are taken care of or attend school while their parents applications are reviewed. Registered migrants are given housing and food. The system works like nowhere else in the world, as most migrants focus on getting to Germany. The condition of the migrants is desperate- one child had not eaten for 4 days. And local doctors examine migrants, with some referred to local hospitals.

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Holman Jenkins makes some good points as the auto companies in Detroit look for government rescue. He suggests dumping CAFE altogether if Congress is serious about conservation, a gas tax would be the only intellectually honest thing to do. In the light of falling gas prices in November 2008 with $1.98 a gallon in Michigan and across the country, how will demand for hybrids and the Chevy Volt at $40,000 fare? Its hard to tell but some serious thinking about energy and automobiles is in order. Congressional mandates have a tendency to have poor consequences as Holman mentions, because of the loopholes in the mandates like the fuel mileage rules that allowed fleet averages, loopholes Detroit automakers used to lead the trucks and SUV boom to coverup hidden problems for so long. Some of these had to do with the UAW's insistence on rules and benefits and things like the Jobs Banks that were obsolete in a age of globalized manufacturing and unequal playing fields with the Japanese and Koreans in mostly unuionized factories in the southern United States. Some of them with lack of effort, vision and innovation by Detroit car companies to make the fuel efficient technologies to reduce costly fuel imports, and the failure to bridge the union management divide that has been there all the time in the postwar period skewing decisions and leading to obsolete behaviours. Holman sees nationalization of the auto companies as the only possibility given the car companies history and failures, with or without bankruptcy. Even then he does not see them becoming competitive without good leadership and right policies in running the companies and honest policy at the government level, and courage to get a firm grip on reality. ...

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New offices, making them less awful, (NO-LA) this is the trend says this report in WSJ. Reopened offices are opening on a voluntary basis. How will they attract employees back?  Try sweeping views, new yoga and wellness areas, "tech-free reflection zones,"  more conference rooms. This report looks at spaces by Accenture and other companies. Accenture adds sweeping views of the Hudson river, access to an outdoor terrace. The idea is to act as a pull, rather than a push. Unilever is changing offices into destination spaces where employees will come and work in 40% of the time. Salesforce is moving out desks to add more couches, TV's and whiteboards for teams. More offices are building spaces for 60% collaboration, up from 40% previously. Sanofi in Paris is adding options for breakfast, early dinner.  Other ideas are engagement days if workers are coming in only a few days a month. At Hightower this means one set day in the office a week, two engagement days a month for collaborative work. And workers are allowed to not coming one month a year and work from anywhere they choose.  ...

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US and China agree on the first step to a broader trade deal. US offers to take in Chinese students at American Universities, something DJT says he was good with.  “Chinese students using our college and universities,” adding that such attendance has “always been good with me.”  China for its part will not slow move export of magnets and rare earth minerals on which it has established a near monopoly of the supplies. These rare earth minerals are needed for technology products made in the US. US tariffs of 55% will still say in place as "deterrance" that the other side keeps its promises and to cut the trade deficit with China not simply talk about it has has happened for a decade of Bush, Obama, Biden. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Jamieson Greer US Trade Representative were at London talks with Commerce Secretary Howard Luttnick to find ways to get an impasse resolved. Both sides lack confidence in what the other is doing so that theis the first step to clarify the direction of talks for achieving a broader deal.  ...

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The market for copper experienced a global oversupply in the last 4 years with a sharp decline in prices. The Sierra Gorda mine in Chile and the Constancia mine in Peru will add more supply of copper. Prices of iron ore dropped 50% in 2014, and copper 14%. The CEO of Glencore PLC, Ivan Glasenberg, says the problem is a huge misallocation of capital, as companies in the mining business continued to invest heavily with supplies outstripping demand.

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WSJ says that administration officials are considering aplan whereby on the first day of bankruptcy the government would announce the setting up of a "new GM" with Chevrolet, Cadillac, and good assets as part of it and a separate "old GM" that would hold the bad assets, retiree and health care obligations, Hummer and Saturn. The "good" GM would have responsibility for $20 billion in government loans. THe old GM could stay in bankruptcy for longer till buyers are found for parts of it or as it is wound down, with proceeds from the sales of assets going to creditors claims. WSJ sources familiar with the developments and the administration's views say that the administration prefers this route, and GM will likely will be forced into filing for bankruptcy protection in mid-May. That would be 45 days into the 60 day period President Obama has given GM to come up with a new plan that will work. The submitted plan was rejected by Obama's team on grounds that the assumptions for sales were too optimistic, none of the concessions from bondholders and the UAW that were needed had been made, the Chevy Volt was not going to pe price competitive, and fuel efficient car production was not a critical part of the plan. The government has asked Fiat to scale back its planned ownership of Chrysler to 20%, as part of an agreement for more government loans....

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A new US agreement and security partnership with Australia and UK will help build nuclear submarine capabilities in Australia. China's relations with Australia are deteriorating and Australia is building its own defense capabilities for the Indo-Pacific region.

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The ECB's annual report for 2012 and the role the ECB under Mario Draghi played in the eurozone crisis in 2011-2012. The gains made in eurozone financial architecture, especially the agreement for the ECB as financial supervisor for European banks. The ECB sees itself as the supervisor for all European banks- the French position in the discussions in Brussels. The agreement of Dec. 12, 2012 only says banks with assets over 30 billion euros, or 20% of GDP of countries, or operations in two or more countries will come under supervision by the ECB.

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Scientist Kim Mishra at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology has come up with a method to make chocolate not just from the cocoa seeds discarding the pulp, husk and juice as is done today. This is wasteful. The new method uses the cocoa pulp, the husk and the juice as a way to make chocolate without sugar and use the whole fruit. This will reduce the impact on the climate with more chocolate production and less deforestation for new cocoa planted in South American countries as an addition to production in African countries like Ghana. It will also benefit cocoa farmers in Africa and Guatemala by increasing their income. This report looks at the colonial past of chocolate production by companies such as Lindt as Swiss producers worked with French and British colonies to expand production in the late 19th century.

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In 12 years in the US Congress, six terms, Tim Walsh was a leading proponent on veterans issues having passed legislation to help Vets. He was the ranking Demcorat on the House Veterans Affairs Committee, and served multiple times on the Armed Services Committee. His strong point is in working in a bipartisan manner on many issues. He continued this bipartisan style as Governor of Minnesota for 2 terms, and after heading the Council of Governors. It will bring some of the strengths president Biden brought to his presidency in getting things done in Congress on a bipartisan basis. In many ways he can bring his head and his heart to the issues that face the Nation and pass the legislation in Congress that will tackle these issues that affect workers and families, and rural America, the vast majority of the Nation.

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Thomas Frank writing about the public outrage about executive compensation quotes Bill Black, a Professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, who makes an important point. Beyond the size of this compensation there was something else happening that was perverse in its design and in its effects. Black says that at each point in the development of the disaster of mortgage securitization, it was the pay for performance systems that sent the wrong signals to loan officers, real estate appraisers, accountants, and bond rating agencies. The compensation or reward systems actually encouraged wrong, unethical and ultimately disastrous behaviours for the companies and the economy. Another way to look at it, the way it happened on Wall Street- especially at Merrill Lynch and some other financial institutions- the bonuses and other compensation was a way for executives to recklessly milk (loot is the other word) the companies for all they could yield regardless of the results afterwards. And as Black says, to do this through normal corporate mechanisms. A whole range of behaviours of this type took place in the final years of the boom. See other articles by Thomas Frank. ...

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Tesla Motors delivers 10,350 vehicles in the 1st quarter 2015. This is a 55% increase over the same quarter in 2014. The target set by CEO Elon Musk of Tesla Motors is for deliveries of 55,000 in 2015, and reaching 500,000 by 2020. The new model Tesla Model X sport utility vehicle comes out in the second half of 2015. Tesla's expenses are going up rapidly with the higher sales, especially for a global supercharger network in North America, Europe and Asia, to meet new buyer concerns about the infrastructure. Capital expenditures budget for 2015 is $1.5 billion. Future expenditures include a $4-5 billion plant to make electric batteries. Tesla says it will not be profitable till 2020. Tesla is using attractive lease deals to overcome buyer resistance at a time of low gas prices. It is cutting back on plans for China. Tesla share price on April 2, 2015 was $191. This gives it a dizzy $24 billion capitalization, about half of the capitalization of GM at $58.8 billion in stock market capitalization, and Ford Motor at $63.4 billion. ...

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Google will take part in the Digital India project of the Indian government with a $10 billion investment over five years. This is about leveraging the power of digital technologies for transforming lives of farmers, young people and for creating new businesses. Google Search and You Tube reaches 245 million Indians. Local language content is popular for 66% of the content online. For Google CEO Pichai this as he says is deeply personal as the investments in early computers and digital use in the first 20 years after independence in 1947 provided the opportunities for Pichai and Microsoft CEO Nadella and countless others to learn about these technologies in schools and universities in India. These investments will lay the ground for opportunities to be created for new generations. Earlier Google partnered with Tata Trusts to launch Saathi so that the internet could reach India's villages. About 23 million women in 300,0000 villages have gained through Saathi the first use of internet. ...