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Russian seaborne crude shipments are up 18% as of June 11 over the prior year, Iran's shipments up even more by 45%. The result is increased supplies even though the Saudis tried to increase oil prices by limiting production. China's economy is slowing and faces headwinds that will not go away anytime soon of debt close to 290% of GDP higher than US or Europe. And lower imports by the US and EU as they correct the mistakes of overconcentration in China. The European Union faces high inflation and a mild recession. This is cutting demand as supplies increase. It will help the Biden administration as it seeks to give all Americans a fair chance to improve their standard of living, by reducing the cost of living and investing in the economic potential of the country in a way no other adminstration has done in the last 40 years.

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Florida Governor Bob Graham 1979-1987 work in investing in education boosting per pupil spending and investment in Flordia university system is similar to California Governor Pat Brown 1960-1968 who helped build the Cal State University system. Bo Graham covered the Kennedy-Johnson period of the sixties to the turn of the century, retiring in 2003 after serving in the US Senate for 18 years. His early upbringing was on a family farm in Florida. He is known for his effort to take on the roles of ordinary Americans for 100 days when he ran for public office. This period is a reminder of the changes in the democratic system, business and the economy since then with influence of lobbyists in Congress, tech monopolies, and the financial industry leading to crises since 2009, and wars in the Middle East that dissipated the Nation's resources that should have gone into replacing dilapidated infrastructure.

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The US Federal's half percentage point interest rate cut bodes well for stocks and bonds in the US, says this report in WSJ, as it reduces the burden of interest rates on small business that has a part of its debt in floating rates. The default risk component of rates also shrinks for large and small companies. A lot depends on how much the US is investing in manufacturing, in chips and science, in education, in infrastructure that reduces the costs to business and in its industries, which is the ultimate driver of growth. In this sense the Biden administration and Jerome Powell's Fed have accomplished a remarkable deal in the difficult period of the pandemic's four years 2020-2024. Much remains to be done yet this is a big deal, and the next president can leverage these strengths to set the US on the right path, the Way Forward for America.

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US president Biden gives a rousing and vigorous speech drawing a picture of his vision for the country and contrasting that with the chaos, prejudice and lack of action on key issues facing America of his predecessor. On defending democracy, on Ukraine and Europe, on the economy and jobs, on preschool and education, on pharmaceutical cost reduction, on fair taxes and cutting the deficit while investing in manufacturing and new jobs, on all these issues he drew a sharp contrast with the predecessor and former president. He also drew on the tradition of America for democracy and called on America to move forward in line with its values and decency and diversity, not go backwards in the way of his predecessor. He said it was not about being young or old as he was considered too young when he was the youngest senator of the US at 29 years of age, and now people talk of me being old. It was of not being old in the way that the oldest emotions are of hate and resentment reminding people of his predecessor's sharp language about other people and cultures. ...

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Chinese companies are building railways, power projects, airports and other infrastructure in East Africa. This report looks at work in Uganda building infrastructure projects and exploring for oil near Lake Albert. Chinese state owned banks provide access to financing for projects and other infrastructure companies build projects using about 60% of labour from China, on low interest rates but with payment over shorter periods than with World Bank projects. The U.S. lags far behind in investing in African infrastructure which badly needs modernization. 

The drawback of debt load is being balanced by exploring for oil in Uganda and keeping the debt load manageable. CNOOC is exploring for oil near Lake Albert. Uganda received $1.4 billion from 200 to 2014, in 2015 another $1.9 billion for 2 dams, and now $2.2 billion loan for new railways.

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A wise and astute Susie Wiles, DJT's chief of staff, acts quickly to keep the narrative in place for the first 100 days and beyond.

There are many forms of the Musk Risk Factor in the first 100 days of the DJT administration and Susie Wiles has a sense of what this means.  "Musk Paradoxes" as Le Monde calls it poses narrative challenges for the new administration- investing in America vs investing in China plant for Tesla, the Cultural Literacy that is part of America for the last 200 years and the Movement for Global Literacy at Lyrarc.com vs social media channels that are a risk to cultural literacy and literacy itself in America and the world, and the volatility poor signalling that distracts from the tasks of safe borders and communities that America expects from the DJT in its first 100 days and the next 1000 days. Not to mention the tasks of the economy and of building a safer world. 

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The incomprehensible situation that the UK Tory governments have not asked Shell and other oil companies to pay a properly implemented windfall tax on record profits. Shell made over $30 billion in profits in 2022 so far says this report in The Guardian and paid no windfall tax, because Mr. Sunak as finance minister put a huge offset to taxable profits by giving back 91p for every  1 pound as tax breaks to oil companies for investing in extraction in North sea fields when he imposed the windfall tax. Shell made large investments in North Sea fields that nullify the windfall tax so no such tax is paid. Mr. Sunak thus completely negated the very positive effect of the windfall tax. This tax if paid would help the UK with its fiscal situation during the pandemic and reduce borrowing costs, provide credibility in financial markets, fund assistance to vulnerable segments during a cost of living crisis, at a time of crisis in UK finances in October 2022.  ...

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Was Merkel right in setting an amendment to the German Constitution to limit the structural budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP. It is called the Schuldenbremse Amendment. It means there is no money to invest in the country's future, no money for infrastructure even when it is old and crumbling for roads, bridges rail stations and airports, no money for digitization of the economy in which Germany has fallen behind, not enough for defense, and no money to fund needs in education, healthcare, childcare. And not enough money to invest in climate change action. Absent this investment the German economy falls behind, jobs become precarious and public dissatisfaction leads to volatile political situation. Like the Republican party in the US which calls for tax cuts and no walk the talk for infrastructure investment, the CDU/CSU and FDP, have a mindset opposing investing in Germany. Investment that the Greens and SPD promised but could not deliver with the FDP in the Scholz /Habeck /Lindner coalition over 4 years. ...

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Wages are now consistently up more than inflationary pressures since mid 2023 to July 2024 by about 0.6 to 1.0% in Labor Department graphs about cost of living. This is good news for the US economy. It shows the policy of president Biden investing in rebuilding infrastructure and Science/Chips, and renewable energy is delivering for the American people alongside cost of living actions by the Fed's Powell and Biden. For the first time since 2021US CPI index for inflation from the Labor Department drops below 3%. It drops to 2.9% for July 2024. The Consumer Price Index increasing by 2.9% over the same month in the prior year 2023. This shows a definite trend for the cost of living to moderate after the supply chain events that increased inflation leading to lagging efforts for wages to catch up- cost of living issues for ordinary Americans. The costs of medical care and automobiles, automobile repair, food, all moderating. Housing costs still to moderate with higher interest rates.  ...

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It is Tuesday afternoon in Volant, Pennsylvania, population 126 residents and a Minnesotan Walz is talking to farmers in rural parts of the state, farmers trudging their way to see him. In this part of midwestern America there is anxiety about the cost of living, about immigration, and about a way forward. It is here in Beaver County that Biden campaigned in 2008 and in 2020, and Walz is back in 2024 in the closing days to get his message across that America can be tough on immigration, and also invest in renewal by investing in the future, and controlling the cost of living, fighting monopolies and corporations that don't pay their fair share of taxes that can fund America's  rural infrastructure that has been neglected for three decades by both parties till the Biden legislation funding rural infrastructure renewal. This means getting the message out and fighting every step of the way in rural America that needs and deserves respect, says Katie Glueck.

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Over the last 5 years 2021-2025 Americans who are more excited than concerned about AI has dropped from 18% to 10%, and Americans who are more concerned than excited has grown from 37% to 52%, in Pew Research surveys. Showing that self-interested tech companies such as Microsoft and OpenAI, Google are making loud claims for AI that do not reflect the views of the American people as a whole in 2025.

Americans by large margins in Pew Research believe AI will help in day to day tasks from weather forecasting to inventing new medicines. And by large margins of 40% Americans think AI will hurt ability to think creatively and form meaningful relationships and by 20% will hurt for making difficult decisions. This shows Americans -similar to people in China as reported- believe in using AI for ordinary day to day routine tasks, and are wary of AI and aware that AI's usefulness is limited to such routine tasks only.

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DJT's 32% reciprocal tariff on Taiwanese goods including chips is working. When reports under president Biden showed TSMC investing in Arizona it was still a slow process with much foot dragging including articles by TSMC executives about how difficult it was to make in US. Lyrarc commented specifically on this as TSMC founders got their education and training in the US and it sounded a bit too condescending. Now that the Trump administration has its tariffs in place this WSJ report says the factory in Arizona is advancing production by several quarters, and it has started production late in 2024 with quality comparable to TSMC plants in Taiwan. How quickly DJT's approach with tariffs to level playing field and letting Taiwan know it owes defense and its education in semiconductors to the US is working, is shown by this example like others. And the $65 billion investment is now up to $165 billion in the US that TSMC is planning. The extra $100 billion is a commitment made to DJT. TSMC revenue growth is higher now at 30% than 20% it had previously with AI and robotic demand in 2025 so that it needs to make more chips quickly. ...

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"It may be that this iron curtain is small, unimportant and justified, but it is a bad sign." Howard Buffett took a stand in the House of Representatives against the VOA broadcasts being used inside the US in 1947.  Warren Buffett is the son of Congressman Howard Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska, who was on the Board of Education of Omaha, started a small stock brokerage firm, and ran for US Congress in 1942, reelected twice and in 1950. He also ran Howard Taft's Republican presidential campaign in 1952. Looking at Buffett in the FDR-Truman years- one sees a young Buffett in contrast to Warren Buffet's silence on the 2008 financial crisis, raising serious issues- about the Truman doctrine in 1947 on the floor of Congress, was Acheson falling dominoes analogy a dangerous one?  It worked in Turkey-Greece with $400 million in aid in 1947 but was Acheson/Truman using a dangerous analogy of dominoes that would later hurt the US in French colonial Indochina wars, and in the reference to protecting oil resources in Middle east in Iran, Iraq and Saudi to lead to wars that exist to this day in 2024? Wars DJT and Biden have both opposed in contrast to Reagan, Bush, and Obama. There is a huge contrast between the father Howard Buffett, descendent of Huguenot ancestors from 1600 New York, and the finance professional Warren Buffett who went to Columbia University in 1951-52 as student of Prof. Graham with 70 years in finance during which financial crises destabilized the US with Buffett not taking a stand. One hedge fund manager say it is pure nepotism to pass on the company Berkshire to Warren's son Howie. But he is not surprised- who else would be sure to keep the company headquarters in Omaha, keep things simple invested in index funds and much of it in a few companies leaving the investing to managers chosen by Warren, with Howie's job to make sure his father's principles remain. Howie is Warren Buffett's 70 year old son, who Buffett 90 years is setting up as his successor as chairman who will not do investing leaving it to managers, yet be able to change CEO's. Howie worked for a few years at See Candy, a Berkshire owned company before becoming corporate VP at ADM food producer, followed by working on his own farm in Decatur, Illinois which he enjoyed doing. At ADM Howie left after an anti trust investigation began, in which the company was charged with $100 antitrust fines for price fixing says the WSJ. What is Berkshire Hathaway? It is a trillion dollars of investment funds invested in a few companies under name Berkshire Hathaway, using some of the basic ideas of Benjamin Graham, a pioneer in careful investing, adopted by Warren. Where has Buffett put his money? Berkshire top ten investments are- about $90 billion in Apple, $70 billion split between Bank of America and American Express, $30 billion in Coca Cola, and $30 billion split between 2 oil companies Chevron and Occidental. He has not invested in pharmaceuticals or in renewable energy- in just a piece of America.This has generated a compound interest of about 14% over 3-5 years and about 12% over 10 years. He holds 30% of his investments in cash or fixed, mostly cash at this time. And holds the remaining 70% in stocks. ...

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The head of Oxfam International shows how tackling problems such as clean water, health, daycare, can improve participation of women and generate additional employment. A major problem worldwide particularly in the developing world is the lack of enough good jobs. Investing 2% of GDP in healthcare in African, Asian and Latin American countries can generate additional 1-3%  employment. Higher levels of investment are needed in health and other services that improve the quality of life.

About $170 billion in taxes not paid to governments of developing countries because of tax dodging leaves governments short of the funds needed to invest in public services, schools and hospitals.

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The increasing competitiveness of Mexico compared to China and India as an investment destination in 2013. Foreign companies are investing heavily in Mexico because of investment advantages in labor cost, supply of engineering and management talent, and proximity to the U.S.

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The bottom half of all U.S. households have only recently recovered the wealth lost in the 2009 financial crisis. They still have 32% less wealth than in 2003 when inflation is taken into account. The top 1% of households have more than twice as much as they did in 2003. Wealth is defined as net worth that includes houses , savings and stocks minus any debt. The wealthy have 85% of their wealth in stocks and bonds. For the bottom 50% half of the assets are in the house or family home. Economic and regulatory trends have happened in ways that favored the people investing in stocks, and rescued people investing in stocks with policies designed with this purpose by central banks and the U.S. government. By contrast for the bottom 50% buying a home is more difficult today. The problem this WSJ report points out is that the next recession would most hurt the bottom 50%, even before they have recovered from the last one which was a result of shaky practices of banks in financial lending and not some cyclical swing in the economy. Policy was then geared to provide a recovery first for stock markets as a way to economic recovery. The bottom 50% have little stake in the stock market, the top 1% have most of their gains from the stock market. Much of the popular anger comes from the way policies by both Democrats and Republicans differed little in past administrations in the way they approached this in shaping economic policy. As a result infrastructure building and investments in public services took less priority in this period of 30 years with trade imbalances with China building up on the external front, in another side to this development. The shift to Trump and to right wing populists in Europe is only the first phase in the corrective action that has to take place to return to a fairer distribution of wealth that existed before the last 3 decades. Eventually it is not right wing or left wing factions or parties, but healthy policies, that matter to create a better balance for society.  ...

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Zhu Changhong plays a key role in investing China's $3.5 trillion dollars in foreign reserves. He is part of the management at China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange or SAFE, a division of the central bank. He maintains a low profile, yet he has played a critical role in shifting investment into Japanese and U.S. equities and bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Fund, reducing the risk exposure to U.S. Treasury's as the U.S. Federal Reserve changes monetary policy. From 45% of China's foreign reserves invested in U.S. government bonds, or $1.11 trillion, in June 2010, SAFE under Zhu's guidance reduced the allocation to 35%, or $1.14 trillon, in June 2012, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. He has an interesting background. Coming from Anhui province, he studied physics at the University of Chicago, then shifted to life as a trader in financial markets at Allianz's PIMCO investment firm. After spending 20 years in the U.S., Zhu returned in 2009 as chief investment officer of SAFE. He was drawn back to China by another expatriate Yi Gang, a SAFE director who was an economics professor at Indiana University- Purdue University, Indianapolis....

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Seen as a rural urban divide, less educated and well educated and tech workers the situation in France looks similar to that in the US in the elections of 2016 and 2020. With business in the US and European Union shifting manufacturing to China and the governments neglecting rural areas, decline in standard of living for people on pensions that have not kept up with the cost of living, the situation in France as in the US is decades in the making. Bernie Sanders and Melenchon were appealing in different ways to younger people yearning for change and a system that would correct these changes.   Melenchon coming this close to less than one percentage point of Le Pen in the first round of French elections shows that a straight Macron Le Pen version of what has happened is an oversimplification, just as seeing the changes in America under president Biden vs Trump would be a simplification, as voters for Sanders who voted for Biden are changing the Biden agenda and setting America on a new path. A path to reshoring jobs that were sent to China, rebuilding American manufacturing, increasing workers wages and restoring workers leverage for higher wages, investing $2 trillion in child care, housing, supporting worker incomes and families, supporting older Americans on pensions. In the same way beneath the idea that nothing has happened after the yellow vest protests for cost of living, that has not only not gone away- but increased in the concern for cost of living in this election with the surging inflation - new developments are happening.  Even as Germany under Merkel appeared not be changing in 2020- 1 year after Merkel the situation will have changed completely to address social concerns that were ignored earlier and to invest in infrastructure in a big way. Behind this is a fundamental change that is taking place. Facing a challenge from totalitarian states the fabric of society in the free world, the US, Germany, France, other EU states, India, and nations in the free world will have to respond with changes that restore the fabric of society to what it was before this kind of fracturing, bringing all parts of society together to bring all the energies in place for rebuilding, investing in infrastructure, restoring local manufacturing and renewal. It requires a unified effort to be put in place to respond in the right way.     ...

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Samuelson looks at patterns of investing in stocks in the U.S. since 1982. He cites S&P's Howard Silverblatt that the P/E for the S&P 500 averaged 16.9 since 1935 and the current P/E for the U.S. is at 17.6.

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Jim Tankersley in the NYT says administration officials point out that president Biden is determined not to repeat the political and economic mistakes of the Obama era. Economists now say that these economic mistakes slowed the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis caused by faulty mortgages of banks and excessive leveraging. Obama cut back on spending on education, on relief for workers and families affected by the financial crisis of 2008, and in investing in education and other public goods. Administration officials also point to polls that show the public increasingly sides with the president on this. "The American people are absolutely right in saying that having the super wealthy and special interests pay their fair share is the right way to cut the deficit," says a communications adviser to the National Economic Council. Huge social gaps opened up in America with these economic mistakes, including the transfer of America's manufacturing base to China, an overconcentration in one country that is only now being reversed under president Biden. Jim Tankersley has covered this loss of opportunity for American workers for over a decade. ...

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The Paris climate change agreement involved 195 countries. Agreed to on December 12, 2015 it was seen as a major step forward to limit global warming to 2 degrees celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Progress has been slow in taking action since then. Because of covid 19 the Glasgow conference was cancelled. Hope stems from the goals set for carbon neutral economy of Japan, the EU, UK, China, and the U.S. as it enters the agreement after withdrawing.  Much will depend on action taken as the pandemic has pushed economic goals of recovery to the forefront. As India has shown in renewable energy, particularly in solar energy targets and bold vision, there is a lot that can be done by each country acting on its own without the hype of the agreement. India now sees huge opportunities in solar energy because it is cheaper and pollutes less than coal. This is a game changer that comes from investing in new technologies and taking advantage of India's abundant access to sunny weather and the lower labor and other costs. ...

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Higher inflation and interest rates at 2.2% are having a profound effect on the Japanese economy. Japan is starting a new era of positive interest rates with the first interest rate increase in 17 years this week. Pay raises reached an average of 5.28% in 2023, according to the Japan Trade Union Confederation where the highest for the previous decade was 2.4%. PM Kishida has pursued a course that encourages workers to get needed pay raises. It will affect everything from US mortgages to how much money stays at home and is invested in Japan. Japan holds $4.2 trillion in foreign investment holdings of which $1.1 trillion is in US Treasury bonds. As the differential with US interest rates decreases - varying from 1.5% to 3%- it will increase investment in the Japanese economy and in manufacturing at home. Japan has seen low wages and a hollowing out of its manufacturing sector similar to the US creating a sense of less hope for the future. This shift to investing in Japan is a change for reasons of supply chain reliability and increasing confidence of workers and worker's families in Japan. ...

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The Indian Express looks at the migration to European Union countries from Asian countries. Entry points include Serbia in Eastern Europe with tourist history built for entry. Routes that are long and hazardous. The lack of rapid industrialization and development in Asian countries leads to a flow of migrants to the EU and the US. Better management of this flow requires stable and good governance in Asian states and willingness of the EU and the US to share technology and invest in South Asian and South east Asian nations. Reports of Vietnamese or Indian immigrants in cramped spaces hidden in trucks or lorries, shows how the welfarism or handing out of government benefits is not the answer to the need for rapid industrial development and investment in infrastructure needed in South Asia and South East Asia. With accelerated development made possible with business in the EU and the US investing in manufacturing  in this part of the world. This is also part of what is seen as diversification of American and EU investment so that manufacturing is not simply concentrated in one Asian country. ...

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Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares is an engineer from Portugal who joined Renault as a test track driver in 1981. In 2014 Fiat merged with Chrysler and in 2021 the PSA Group merged with Fiat creating the Stellantis car company with sales in Europe and the US. As CEO of PSA Group Carlos Tavares headed Stellantis. Tavares has skills in persuading unions in Europe to work with him, and motivates his people with his working style. At Chrysler even with losses from 10% absenteeism he has managed to reach operating profit margin of 16.4%. Stellantis plans investments of $35 billion in EV vehicles by 2025 which means it is putting back profits into investing in the future. Stellantis is today larger than GM or Ford. It has 47,000 employees in the US.  Earlier PSA had acquired lossmaker Opel from GM in 2017. Tavares is known for his careful attention to cost, and he has skills in negotiating with the labor unions in Europe for job cuts to stabilize loss makers.  ...

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George Washington is cited for his emphasis on preparedness and preparation for conflict as critical to preserve peace, or to defend America's role in the world as the first Republic based on a simple idea in the Declaration of Independence. Much of the war with Britain in the late1770's depended on the careful and many years of preparation done by Washington. Washington's diaries tell the story day by day of the preparations over years and the final months that won the war at Yorktown in 1781 that no one not the British were aware of- the logistics of moving the army from the south to the north, of equipment and training.  Roger Wicker, leading Republican on Senate Armed Services Committee has a plan- add $55 billion for defense in 2025, Add 357 ships for Navy and 340 fighters for Air Force by 2035. Do the $180 billion backlog for maintenance of the defense forces. Raise the military spending from 2.9% to 5% over 5-7 years as a parallel effort to investing in infrastructure and manufacturing at home. ...