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Spain's plan to reduce corporate taxes by 5% and individual income taxes by average 12.5% in 2015-2016, reversing earlier austerity measures. A similiar move in Italy.

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The Editorial Board of the Washington Post on the challenges facing Mario Monti, the new prime minister, and the Italian people in 2012-2015.

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To get an idea of the scale of paralysis in the Congress party administration of Manmohan Singh in India in 2011-2014 consider this- more than $100 billion in critical infrastructure projects were held up by slow growth and red tape, according to estimates of the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy. The Congress party was too preoccupied with fighting charges of corruption adding to the lack of leadership from Singh and Gandhi, and focussed on programs of subsidies for voters to prepare for the 2014 elections. In the last 12 months alone ending in March 2014, manufacturing projects of about $54 billion were shelved, according to the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy. The climate of uncertainty led to Indian companies investing overseas, or simply holding back instead of investing in the Indian economy. Industrial production declined for the first time since the 1990's during the 12 months ending in March 2014. It is in this vaccum in leadership since 2012, and a seriously troubled economy, that the 2014 parliamentary elections were held. Impatient young voters- with about 100 million new young voters added to voting lists- gave Modi and the BJP party an absolute majority and mandate for coming up with new solutions to India's problems in jobs and infrastructure....

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Raghuram Rajan, former chief economist at the IMF, and William White, former head of the economics department at Bank for International Settlements, both see the need to raise rates. But expert opinion on the other side sees the need for caution as the economic outlook worsens, and supports ECB and US Fed's efforts to counteract a deteriorating economic situation.

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Brooks on the Obama inaugural address- what it said about America's progressive character and the need for collective action, and what it left out about the individual initiative and innovation that made America what it is today.

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An appeal to the progressive coalition of the 30's, 60's and 90's in the FDR, Kennedy, and Clinton years, by U.S. president Obama in his second inaugual address, could be described as conservative. Yet it presents challenges in the post-boomer period of today with slower growth and an aging population.

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Mario Monti, the new prime minister of Italy, is taking on one of Italy's toughest problems, a pervasive culture of tax evasion. The loss to the economy is not measured ony in terms of the loss of money to the Treasury, which one estimate puts at $340 billion a year. This burdens companies and the manufacturing sector with higher taxes and reduces investment in new plants, research and development, capital equipment, which would increase jobs. By encouraging this culture of tax evasion Berlusconi undercut and jeopardized his own plans to bring new economic growth to Italy. Berlusconi prevented allegations of false accounting against his companies by passing a law through parliament that made reduced penalties for false accounting. In Italy one saying goes that "only fools pay." In a country of 60 millon people only 394,000 people earn an income of more than $135,000 a year. "Evasion totale," referred to in newspapers in Italy is about total evasion by some owners of large property. One effort in parliament is to introduce legislation that would require the use of debit or credit cards, electronic transfer or other similiar methods of payment for amounts above a certain amount- with one of the amounts proposed being 100 euros. A recent poll by Demopolis showed that 73% of Italians polled want to see strong action to prevent tax evasion. This is also a strong reason why Monti, Draghi at the ECB, Bundesbank officials at Germany's central bank, and German chancellor Merkel, do not see the ECB's large scale buying of eurobonds by essentially printing money as a solution to eurozone debt problems- it puts off taking the neccessary and essential steps for reviving eurozone economies....

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The Economist points out the shortcomings in Indonesia's effort to attract foreign investment and increase growth under the Widodo administration.

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India is an attractive place for foreign investors with the country moving up 23 places in the ease of doing business rankings of the World Bank. Growth is faster than China since 2015, and GDP is expected to double to $5 trillion by 2030, according to government think tank NITI Aayog. Corporate deal making from foreign investors exceeds that in China. Mergers and acquisitions targeting Indian companies reaching a total of $93.7 billion in 2018, up 52% from last year, according to Dealogic. Overseas purchases were $39.5 billion for India in 2018 compared to $32.8 billion for China. In comparison to China where trade tensions are increasing, India under the Modi government has improved the ease of doing business- implementing a new bankruptcy code, easing foreign direct investment rules, introduced a nationwide goods and services tax to replace a hodge podge of taxes in different states. In the consumer sector Unilever NV made purchase of a malted drink brand Horlicks from GlaxoSmithKline PLC as part of a $3.75 billion deal. Softbank led a $1 billion investment in OYO Hotels. In infrastructure Tata Steel made a $8.3 billion acquisition of steelmaker Bhushan Steel. Reliance Jio's aggressive push in mobile with low prices is leaving the telecom industry ripe for mergers and consolidation- Bharti Infratel acquired Indus Towers for $6.5 billion. Closely held family companies are also selling out their controlling stakes. ...

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Von Mark Schieritz of Germany's Zeit Online describes the changes underway following the election campaigns in the U.S., and France, and the Brexit vote in Britain, all signalling the discontent of people left behind by the tech, capitalism, trade and globalization changes of the last two decades. The appeal of one time fringe politicians using racist slogans and divisive rhetoric to appeal to those left behind, appealing to people lacking intergenerational mobility, and without much hope for a better future, is a serious concern. People who are gullible enough, lack college education, or racially isolated so that they are not likely to look carefully at what is being offered in terms of programs and change of competing parties, and likely to overlook the hard and difficult road for corrective course of action, because of anger and pentup fears. Schieritz cites as part of this change the unanimously approved conclusion in its final declaration at the G-20 meeting in Chengdu, China- "The benefits of growth need to be shared more broadly within and among countries to promote inclusiveness." Yet this can be a sort of "too little, too late."  Bankers who are cited in an email going around Wall Street lack credibility with groups on Main Street, to people adversely affected by tech, trade and globalization changes that have been persistently ignored for over a decade, close to two decades. More convincing is the tone of Theresa May, the British prime minister's first statement outside 10 Downing Street- who spoke of the "burning injustices" and her determination to make this a top priority of her government. Still more convincing are the programs to invest $275 billion over 10 years in infrastructure put forward by the leading candidate in the U.S. presidential election of 2016, to provide easier access to public universities and colleges to those left behind, as a sure way to create new jobs and address intergenerational mobility. In fact every leading candidate had made the loss of upward mobility their central plank already in 2015, long before Trump and Sanders started their campaign. The real hope lies in western leaders Merkel, May, and Clinton, all keenly aware students of changes, all women by the way who have sensed the injustice and have the ability to come up with something new and promising for the future, after learning the lessons of the past. ...

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Lagging growth in GDP per capita, productivity growth, in Italy, with small family business unwilling to take risks for growth, and bureaucratic hurdles for business. To get an idea how Italy has lagged severely behind other countries in Europe, consider that GDP per capita increased by 28% in Spain, and 22% in France, compared to only 8% in Italy during the 20 year period 1993-2013, according to the Conference Board. Productivity growth measured by GDP per hour worked for Italy showed growth of only 13% in that 20 year period, compared to 30% in France and 23% in Spain. Since the 2008 global financial crisis the Italian economy has shrunk by 9% and growth is barely 1% in 2014. During 1993-2003 top performers Germany showed 31% increase in GDP per capita and 32% increase in productivity growth, the UK showed 44% increase in GDP per capita and 38% in productivity growth. Because of slowing population growth GDP growth has to come from productivity increases in Europe. France is the strongest in terms of productivity with $59 of GDP per hour worked, UK $51, and Germany $57. Italy at $45 has fallen behind Spain at $50. Conference Board statistics show GDP per capita in inflation adjusted, purchasing power adjusted 2013 dollars at $35,847 for France, $40,868 for Germany, $30,145 for Spain, $39,904 for Britain, and Italy lagging behind at $31,386. Most of the gains were made before 1993 for Italy, whereas Spain surged in the period after 1993 only slowing after 2008. The struggles in the U.S. auto industry showed how well meaning changes for labor in the early postwar period if not adapted to changes in the global economy decades later can lead to sharp decline before adjustment is made. In Italy well meaning labor laws in the early postwar period not adapted to changes in the global economy decades later, combined with cultural behaviour of entrenched group interests, and a bureaucratic government, have stifled growth and productivity....

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The WSJ's Christopher Emsden and Alessandra Galloni's interview with Italy's Labor Minister, Elsa Fornero, after major changes to Italy's labor laws including Article 18. This is a major change for Italy. She describes the problems she faced and how she has tackled them to get the new labor law passed. Fornero will set up a monitoring system to ensure that the law's imprementation takes place smoothly. To make the change Fornero took apart Article 18 to its constituent elements, preserving the anti discrimination aspect and the right to appeal, but allowing employees to be terminated for economic reasons. This puts Italy on an even footing with its europartners Germany and France, and addresses one of the main reasons Italian businesses are loath to hiring new employees. It also addresses the main reason why foreign investment in the Italian economy is so scarce. In achieving this Fornero faced the lack of support from Confindustria, the business association (which does not cease to amaze her), CGIL, the labor unions, and the political class in Italy, with each side wanting to tweak the system to make gains or get special exemptions. Fornero is a pensions expert and economics professor at the University of Turin. Her ministry covers pensions, labor, welfare and equal opportunity policies....

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This Journal editorial cites the regulatory burdens imposed on small and medium sized businesses in Italy that discourage hiring and innovation. Prime minister Mario Monti's efforts to reduce these burdens and change labor laws in Italy.

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Italy's major problem is lack of growth, with growth averaging 0.3% in 2001-2010 compared to 1.1% for the eurozone area. In the 1st quarter of 2011 growth was only 0.1%. Italian bonds yield two percentage points above the yield on German bunds. With growth at the present level, Italy's would see an increase in debt to GDP ratios, according to Barclays Capital. Debt to GDP is currently at 119%.

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Andrew Roth describes a situation in Russia where president Putin is more popular than the ruling party. The United Russia Party was shown having support of 45% in pre election polls. The election campaign used Putin posters and the slogan "the party of the president," to increase voter support.  Some voters see Putin working really hard to improve the economic situation. Samuel Greene, director of the Russia Institute at King's College, London, says that even after efforts to increase support United Russia Party has failed to generate voter enthusiasm. Voter turnout was low especially in Moscow and St Petersburg. The election result is seen by experts as a way to give Putin support to tackle the economic problems facing the country, and ensure stability. About 343 members of the parliament out of total 450 are from the United Russia Party. The budget shortfall of 3% is being met by the government  by using state funds, and one of the sovereign funds is likely to be exhausted in 2017. One of the options is to cut back on social entitlements, increase the pension age. Prime minister Medvedev has already said state pensions cannot be indexed because "we don't have the money right now." ...

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This WSJ editorial says president Obama's second inaugural address missed the opportunity to bind old wounds with a reference to King on Martin Luther King day. The president chose to set forth a broader liberal agenda including climate change. The editorial points to the tone of the inaugural as setting the tone for the rest of the term and the possibility of return to the rancor that characterized the first term. "We the People" from the Consititution was mentioned several times in the sense of "collective action" that defined this text as government action. The programs of Medicare Medicaid and Social Security as "committments we make to each other." And the programs "do not make us a nation of takers; they free us to take the risks that make this country great," which are seen by the Journal as not appropriate for an Inaugural address that rises above the fray of politics.

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Moritz Kramer, a managing director at S&P, says Spain, Italy, France and Portugal cannot depend on austerity measures and cuts in spending alone to resolve the eurozone crisis. This is only one aspect of the problem facing the countries in southern Europe. The major reason for the problem is the lack of competitiveness in their economies. Nobel winner Stiglitz also points this out and adds that its important to note that the human and natural resources of Europe are the same and the potential just as good today as before the eurozone financial crisis. He says southern Europe has failed to utilize its human and capital resources and improve its technologies in ways that would make it more competitive with Asian countries. Experts point to the decade it took Germany to address problems created by inflexible labor markets, wage competitiveness, and investments in technology and human resources to get to where it is today.

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With Obama's popularity rating in 2016 similar to Reagan's in his last year in office at 51%, he announced his endorsement of Hillary Clinton for president. Obama is likely to campaign in 2016 for Hillary to reunite the Democratic Party, bring Bernie Sanders and Sander's supporters behind the Democratic nominee, including younger women.

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So far the Italian government has already recovered $15 billion for 2011 in its fight against tax evasion. The fight includes an advertising campaign depicting tax evasion as anti-social activity and vigorous enforcement by tax officials and the financial police. Italy has already banned cash transactions to reduce possibilities for evading taxes. This problem is severe in Italy because the underground economy is about 17.5% of GDP. An estimated $150 billion is lost to the Italian treasury from tax evasion. As a result Italy has a chronic budget deficit problem and is not able to make necessary investments in improving competitiveness to keep up with other countries. This may be one of the lasting achievements of the new administration of Mario Monti, along with its efforts to change the way the public thinks about other issues including labor laws that place large burdens on small companies in hiring practices. Italians sense the need to change the way they think about taxes because this is one way to reduce the burden of austerity measures- higher tax revenues could enable lowering taxes. It would also enable investing in improving competitiveness that would the economy grow and provide the jobs to reduce the high unemployment rate among young workers. One of the lasting positive aspects of the eurozone crisis is the change in the way the people and society think about many issues....