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A tentative Brexit deal with the EU is reached but it is not clear that it can win support of the Cabinet of prime minister Theresa May, even before it has any chance in the British parliament. March 29, 2018 is the 2 year period for negotiations to arrive at a deal with the EU. The pro-EU transport minister Jo Johnson resigned and called for a second referendum, saying that the decision in the first referendum to leave the EU was made because false prospects had been presented by the Leave EU campaign. 

Because of the issue of Northern Ireland the U.K would remain indefinitely in the customs union, and this is opposed by the Leave EU supporters in the Conservative party government of prime minister May.

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Jeremy Corbyn was a euroskeptic calling the European Union a "banker's club." Most of his Labour Party's membership opposes Brexit. Experts say a substantial part of the Labour Party's parliamentary vote is needed for any Brexit deal to pass. So far only three members of the Labour Party have deviated from the party direction, and Labour remains united. Corbyn now has the choice to reverse his own skepticism of the EU, so that Labour has a shot at forming a new government to reverse years of Tory policies that Labour sees as neglecting workers.

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Horst Seehofer says there should be unlimited cooperation on security between EU and Britain after Brexit. Privately France has taken this position. The EU Commission and Merkel have taken the position that Theresa May's position hurts European security. Seehofer faces a challenge from the right wing parties in Bavaria's election and chose to take a different position than chancellor Merkel. 

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France and Britain are at loggerheads over fishing rights in UK waters. UK will now have 4 Navy patrol ships protect its fishing waters in the event of a no deal Brexit. French and other EU fishermen get 60% of the fish taken from UK waters. UK exclusive economic zone extends 200 miles from the shore. Conservative ministers have doubled the total fleet of patrol ships from four to eight. During patrol in extreme cases a EU boat can be impounded and taken to the nearest EU port, otherwise it could be boarded and inspected.

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Der Spiegel interview by editors Christiane Hoffmann and Christian Reiermann  with Finance Minister Schauble of Germany in June 2016, on Britain's exit from the European Union. Schauble points out that crises also present opportunities, citing the euro crisis which today is different after six years of tensions, and the Euro currency the second strongest reserve currency in the world. He says politicians would be deaf not to learn from the Brexit referendum, and to come up with better ways to bring Britain's active participation in the European Union. He says the more Britain is part of Europe the better things work. On defense and foreign policy he sees Britain playing a role with Germany and France so that the European voice can be heard in the world. Schauble says Europe can be sluggish and slow at times, but it can come up with solutions. He agrees with Britain that bureaucracy hurts Europe and needs to be tackled, more autonomy is also part of the foundation to build for Europe. It is not essential that all be part of the Schengen area or the monetary union, flexibility matters exceptions can be made, but active participation is vital. In Schauble's view Britain's "pragmatic rationality" is hugely valuable for Europe. ...

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This report in The Times take a look at the work Liz Truss has done as International Trade Secretary and now Foreign Secretary. Truss does not want Britain to become economically dependent on China. More than Johnson Truss is a UK Atlanticist who wants the UK to work with the US and the EU to build a western world that is entirely independent of China. Looking at her work and experience it would appear that Truss is the most underestimated of the candidates for prime minister, much more so than Sunak. She can be strident and aggressive but she has gone through a process of thinking and studying before that with a willingness to try new ideas. She come from an intellectual  family and one that was active in left wing activism. She studied at a comprehensive school in Leeds before going to Merton College Oxford  to study philosophy, economics and politics, and was willing to change her thinking when persuaded about a different course of action to get better results. She also gained the knowledge she needs to do her own thinking with experience first hand as Chief Secretary at Treasury, Secretary of International Trade, and as Foreign Secretary, getting trade deals with Australia and negotiating with other countries. Cameron, May, Johnson lacked this kind of knowledge and experience. And Sunak also falls way short of this kind of knowledge acquired and experience handling international assignments key to Britain's advancement after Brexit. ...

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Britain's prime minister Boris Johnson and his negotiating team meet EU president Ursula Leyen for dinner in Brussels on December 8, 2020, to get over fundamental differences for a Brexit deal. This report in The Guardian describes the details of that dinner meeting.  Boris Johnson told parliament that the European Union was asking Britain to be the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its own fishing waters. He said the EU was also asking that if the EU were to pass a new law that Britain does not comply with they would have the right to  automatically punish Britain or retaliate. On the issue of environmental and other laws that relate to the EU and Britain they are both at the same level today. The EU is worried that in future competition between Britain and the EU in trade and business Britain could relax environmental or other laws to gain an unfair advantage. Boris Johnson and his Conservative party back benchers insist that Britain should have sole right to make its own laws. France's Macron introduced the idea of automatic retaliation as a way to get Britain to keep a level playing field. Both sides see this as a negotiating tactic, hence the dinner meeting as a way to let top negotiators including the leaders to set an informal tone to the final stage of tough negotiating. Merkel made her own remarks to the German parliament saying she was willing to let the negotiations collapse if Britain rejected the EU approach. Merkel stated that if Britain insisted on certain conditions EU could not accept she was willing to let Britain leave without an exit agreement. This way if something went wrong Merkel would not take the blame.   ...

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Three members of parliament from Britain's Conservative Party who backed a second referendum on Brexit to cancel Britain's exit from the European Union left the party to join eight members of the Labour Party who left the Labour party earlier. They formed a new group in parliament called the Independent Group. This narrows Theresa May's majority in parliament to 8 members and increases chances for a new election. Several members of May's cabinet are threatening to quit if Britain leaves the UK without a deal.

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Schumacher of DW.com provides insights into the referendum in Italy in which the "no" vote has a lead. Some aspects of the constitutional reforms are not positive and reduce representation, Renzi's failure to guage public frustration especially after the failure of Mayor Marino in Italy to improve services and infrastructure, the coalescing of different strands of public opinion from right to left in a referendum such as in Brexit especially with a failure to improve economic conditions for the middle class, make a "no' vote likely.

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The more pro-European faction within prime minister Theresa May's Conservative Party is reluctant to push for a vote at this time to avoid what it sees as "political suicide"- a massively disruptive departure of Britain from the European Union without an agreement. This gives May another 2 weeks to come up with a solution. 

Most observers believe Theresa May is simply using a strategy of running down the clock to the March 29 deadline. By not extending the deadline she is seen as planning to hand out to the British Parliament two starkly different options- a massively disruptive no-deal Brexit causing Britain's departure from the European without any agreement and the option of accepting the agreement the prime minister has negotiated with the EU which protects Ireland and Northern Ireland peace and open border trade flows called the Irish backstop.

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Boris Johnson wins an 80 seat majority for the Conservatives in parliament in the 2019 election. He gets a mandate for a quick exit from the European Union by the end of January 2020, and billions of dollars in public spending on infrastructure, the NHS, and public services. He gets an unexpected 364 seats in parliament after winning the support of working class voters hurt by the financial crisis and by industrial decline. Working class voters in the north of England and the Midlands decided to trust Mr. Johnson. The Labour party won 203 seats, its lowest total since 1935.  The British pound surged to its highest level since May 2018, and domestic stocks surged with their best day since 2010. Part of the optimism stems from the size of the win that gives Johnson more flexibility at home and more leverage with the European Union to negotiate Brexit that works best for Britain. Working class areas that suffered for decades with loss of heavy industry, decaying infrastructure and poorer public services put their trust in Johnson's pledge to spend more to revive these areas. Johnson called his government "The People's Government" in his victory speech and promised to spend $131 billion on infrastructure, the National Health Service, schools, and public services. Johnson said in the speech that working class families may- "only have lent us your vote. I am humbled that you have put your trust in me, and that you have put your trust in us. And I and we will never take your support for granted." The other big event in this election is the election win in Scotland of the Scottish National party winning 80% of the seats and seeking a referendum on independence. Mr. Johnson has stated that he clearly opposes this. In Northern Ireland a majority of legislators were elected who favor unity with Ireland. This sets up a constitutional struggle that Mr. Johnson faces in his first elected term in office.   ...

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The government of Theresa May and the EU appear to be on a collision course with the release of the EU draft legal agreement that says Northern Ireland must remain in the customs union and future arbitration or appeal would be under the European Court of Justice.

Ireland favors the EU draft and sees it as a default solution to avoiding a hard border with Northern Ireland if it becomes necessary. Theresa May and the DUP party of Ireland on whom the prime minister depends for her coalition government's thin majority support in parliament, both reject the EU solution. 

The Labor Party says it would solve the Irish border issue by entering into a new customs union with the EU, so that no checks are needed at the border for people and goods. The Labor party sees it as vital to prevent any effort to undermine the Good Friday Agreement that forms the basis of the peace in Northern Ireland.

 

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Sunderland in the northeast of England voted 69% for Leave in the Brexit referendum. It is one of the most deprived cities in the UK and after years of neglect by leaders and political elites it voted Leave to express its resentment of its treatment. Following the collapse of the shipbuilding industry the northeast of England has suffered from high unemployment with a third of the children living in poverty. Yet today there is a marked shift and cooling of the sentiment for Leave, as many of the promises made by the Leave campaign that more money would go to National Health Service, the economy would improve, and contributions to the EU would be diverted to England, appear to be broken. About $445 million was sent to the northeast of England from 2014 and helped the local economy. Benefit cuts, and austerity measures were continued by the May government in the northeast causing people to have doubts about the Brexit Leave campaign's promises. The EU's requirement that people of EU origin could work in the UK had riled residents in the northestern England deprived areas. Now a more realistic assessment of withdrawing from the EU is now taking place. About 60% of the exports of the northeast of England go to the European Union. The effect of this will be felt in this part of England and the costs of Leave are finally sinking in  for Sunderland residents. A Nissan factory in the area is a major employer and the government has stepped in to protect jobs. ...