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Mike Bird in the WSJ points out that there is very little foundation for the idea that there is a tradeoff between the economy returning to normal and lockdown measures. Singapore and Japan without strict lockdown measures have also shown very sharp economic decline. The U.S. Federal Reserve and MIT economists published a paper at the end of March that shows during the 1918 flu epidemic cities with stricter lockdowns actually had better economic outcomes. In the 1918 pandemic Philadelphia did not impose a strict lockdown till later, St Louis acted immediately with a lockdown. St Louis emerged out of the 1918 pandemic returning to economic normalcy much earlier than Philadelphia. It is critical say the authors to understand that pandemic economics is not normal economics. There are both a supply side and demand side effects. China today is still suffering from significant loss of world demand as it struggles even though its manufacturing and its retail stores are gradually returning to normal. It will continue to struggle as long as demand remains very low in the rest of the world. And even though the services sector is larger today in U.S. and Europe than in 1918, with a smaller manufacturing sector, the pandemic effects and economics provide a useful comparison.  Japan provides an example of how the services sector less exposed to overseas demand and with Japan operating without lockdown sees its service sector absolutely hammered.  This WSJ report says it recorded a sharper slowdown than even the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The authors of the study including from the MIT Sloan School of Management say they found no evidence that the cities that acted more aggressively in public health terms did worse in economic terms. If anything says MIT Sloan Asst, Prof. Vermer the cities that acted aggressively did better. The authors are specific, the cities that performed 50 days more of social distancing performed better in manufacturing employment by 6.5% after the pandemic ended through 1923. Earlier social distancing by 10 days translated into a 5% increase in manufacturing employment. ...

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Adjusted for the 35,000 workers on strike at Verizon counted as unemployed, the 38,000 jobs figure in the government report is still considered quite low. Especially striking even as unemployment drops for May from 5.0% to 4.7% is that the drop is attributed to people dropping out of the work force. The average monthly gain for the March through May is 116,000 jobs well short of the 240,000 jobs added on average in 2014-2015. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% in May and up 2.5% for the year. A widely accepted measure of unemployment that includes workers too discouraged to look for work or working part time because of a lack of full time job was at 9.7%. The labor force participation rate was at 62.6%.

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Rep. Ron Paul, assumes chairmanship of the House sub-committee that will oversee the US Federal Reserve. He is the author of the 2009 book "End the Fed." He is critical of the Greenspan-Bernanke Fed policy on interest rates, calling it an inflation of the money supply, penalizing the thrifty and cheating those who save, promoting consumption and spending over saving and investing. He views it as economically destructive. He views Fed policy in other areas as immoral, such as what he calls a counterfeiting operation-creating new money out of thin air- to sustain monopolistic financial cartels.

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In a policy shift the Bank of England's Governor, Mark Carney, announces that the central bank will keep interest rates low and bond purchases at the current level till the unemployment rate drops to 7%. This is similiar to the policy action of the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, to keep interest rates low till the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%. Carney said conditions under which this could change are if inflation increased or financial stability was affected by the easy monetary policy. He said: "Our biggest concern is the possibility that as the recovery gathers pace, that there is an unwarranted change in expectations about the pace of the withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus." "That is one of the principal points of providing explicit forward guidance." BOE said the official unemployment rate was 7.8% in the three months to May, and it is unlikely to decline to the 7% level till early 2016. The inflation rate for Britain was 2.9% in June. The higher inflation rate is partly due to the higher taxes and large increase in university tution fees which are unlikely to be repeated. The BOE's Monetary Policy Committee sees inflation declining to 2% by 2015....

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Daniel Altman's proposal for a tax on wealth over $1 million. He makes the case for taxing wealth not incomes to reduce inequality as this is where the situation in terms of inequality has worsened for the U.S. in recent decades. To support this proposal Altman cites the change in the U.S. Ginni coefficient, which measures inequality. The Ginni coefficient is anumber from 0 to 100 which goes up with higher income inequality. From the late 70's to the 1990's, the Cnesus Bureau showed this to be in the low 40's. By 1992 the Ginni coefficient went up to the mid-70's, according to the Federal Reserve data. It increased to about 80 in 2010. In 1992 the top 10% in the U.S. population controlled 20 times the wealth of the bottom 50%. By 2010 this figure triples to 65 times. and the graduated income tax even if it redistributes a small share of the wealth does little to affect the trend of wealth extremes from building up and threatening the social fabric of America, reducing mobility and opportunities for the bottom 50% to unprecedented levels since the 1950's. ...

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This exceptional report by Ian Talley in the WSJ cites trade and currency expert William Cline about the prospect of a worsening trade deficit under the Trump administration. With an improving economy, says Cline, the dollar had already surged about 8% beyond its fair market value during the last 2 years under president Obama as the economy improved. After Trump's election it surged another 3%. This makes it likely that the trade deficit could approach 4% of GDP with the stronger dollar. More protectionist policy to support U.S. industry, worsening trade deficits, more trade friction could be expected in these conditions. He does point out that markets may be overestimating what will be spent on infrastructure, and how much interest rates will go up which support a stronger dollar. Yet the fact remains that under an administration that is keen on promoting U.S. exports a dynamic is underway that makes U.S. exports actually less competitive in international markets.

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The Labor Department statistics show unemployment dropped from 8.9% to 8.2%, however at the same time GDP growth for the 1st quarter only reached an estimated 2.1%, only slightly higher than the economy's potential of 2%, the figure for growth used by Fed chairman Bernanke. This has puzzled Bernanke because there was just not enough growth to account for the drop in the unemployment rate. A lower jobs number of 120,000 for jobs created in March 2012 gives the Fed chairman only a short time to respond with another version of the Operation Twist, before election season begins in earnest with the Fed wanting to stay neutral, says Lahart. Other reports suggest that the U.S. Federal Reserve having come under criticism for being too interventionist may decide to wait longer.

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Seib draws parallels between the situation in 1889 with the large immigration, growing inequality, impact of science and technology, and progressive parts of the two main political parties. Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson pulled together progressives in the Republican and Democratic parties in the next two decades, and FDR-Truman continued progressive policies in the nineteen thirties and forties to tackle the Depression and promote economic recovery. Financial crises are not mentioned by Seib. The recurring financial crises since that period led to the creation of the central bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve and financial regulations for banks. The financial crises with asset bubbles in 2000 for tech and bubble in real estate in 2009, resulted from the lifting of financial regulation and lack of close supervision of financial markets.

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This NYT editorial provides statistics for the problems of young people facing high student debt, high unemployment, and working in jobs that do not require their educational qualifications. Federal Reserve data show 44% of young college graduates in 2012 working at jobs that did not require a college degree. Underemployment stands at 16.8% in the U.S.- this includes young people too discouraged to look for work and those stuck in part time jobs. Put another way the hope that existed in the 1970's for a better future is simply lacking. The boom, bust, and corrective policy preceding and following the 2000 and 2008 crises have acted as a huge distraction for needed policy steps and imposed additional penalties on young people, just as other trends in the globalized manufacturing and IT industry were shifting jobs overseas.

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Raghuram Rajan interviewed by BW's Peter Coy. Rajan was prescient in questioning the Greenspan Fed's policies and the risks posed by the excessive leveraging in the financial system at the 2005 Jackson Hole conference. After the excessive monetary easing by the Bernanke Federal Reserve, Rajan questions the wisdom of keeping interest rates too low for too long. He joins John Taylor, George W. Bush presidential advisor, and Allan Meltzer of Carnegie-Mellon in making this point. Rajan was the chief economist at the IMF from 2003 to 2006. He is the author of a 2010 book, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures still Threaten the World Economy. The fault lines he describes are rising inequality in the US and the dependence of the US on loans from China.

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Between 2007 and 2008 debit card volume doubled at Chase and almost doubled at Wells Fargo. For the first time Visa Inc reported that the total dollar volume of purchases made usingits branded debit cards surpassed credit card purchasesduring the last quarter of 2008 The $206 billion in US Visa debit card transactions were 50.4% of total transaction volumeup from 40% in 2003. And Visa's Stacey Pinkerd, head of the debit card business says "the reality is that the vast majority of consumers want to pay as they go."And the US governmentsaid last month that the personal savings rate rose to 5% in January 2009. Rvolving debt which mainly reflects credit card loans fell 9.7% to $956 billion in February according to the Federal Reserve.

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On taxes instead of $100 billion a year increase in the deficit that the 2017 tax cut of Biden's predecessor cost the Treasury -which benefited average Americans only $750 a year studies show, and reduced corporate taxes from 35% to 21% shifting billions to large corporations- Biden proposed $500 billon cut in the deficit by putting a 25% tax on 1000 billionaires in the US. Biden's guarantee that no one making less than $400,000 a year would pay an extra penny in taxes. Everyone would be better off, no one worse off. His predecessor's 2017 tax cut did not increase investment spending by companies which remained same as before. "There are 1,000 billionaires in America.   You know what the average federal tax rate for these billionaires is? 8.2 percent!  That’s far less than the vast majority of Americans pay.   No billionaire should pay a lower tax rate than a teacher, a sanitation worker, a nurse!  That’s why I’ve proposed a minimum tax of 25% for billionaires. Just 25%.  That would raise $500 Billion over the next 10 years." Only some of it would pay for the following the rest to cut the deficit- "Imagine what that could do for America. Imagine a future with affordable child care so millions of families can get the care they need and still go to work and help grow the economy.  Imagine a future with paid leave because no one should have to choose between working and taking care of yourself or a sick family member.    Imagine a future with home care and elder care so seniors and people living with disabilities can stay in their homes and family caregivers get paid what they deserve!  Tonight, let’s all agree once again to stand up for seniors! "       ...

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With inflation low at about 1.5% for an inflation measure used by the Federal Reserve, this article by Neil Irwin points to the low unemployment rate of 4.3% as the determining factor for raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by a quarter percentage point in June 2017.The Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen raised interest rates for the second time in 2017 and the fourth time in 18 months, as it sees a tightening in the jobs market.

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Orlik cites a 2011 survey from China's South Western University of Finance and Economics, which surveyed 8000 households and found that 55% of Chinese households had little or no savings for that year. 10% of households control 86% of wealth and 56% of household income. Surveys in 1995 and 2002 showed 10% of households controlled 31% and 41% of wealth. In the U.S. top 10% of households control 74% of the wealth, according to the Federal Reserve figures. What this means, says Orlik, is that before China can shift to consumption based growth the low incomes of the majority of households have to go up, requiring a major policy shift. Under current policies and even with movement in the direction of the DRC/World Bank policy report for China for a gradual shift away from state owned enterprises, there is little prospect for rebalancing the world economy.

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Japan's central bank chief, Shirakawa, has come under criticism from both the governing Democratic Party of Japan and the LDP for not acting strongly enough to support Japan's economic growth in 2012. He diluted efforts of setting a 1% inflation target by showing a lack of determination, saying the Bank of Japan could only do so much to tackle deflation, with effort to tackle structural inefficiencies required from the government. The impact of this was to strengthen the yen which weakens Japanese exporters. The LDP candidate for prime minister, Shinzo Abe, in Dec. 2012 general elections, was particularly critical of Shirakawa. Abe is likely to appoint Takatoshi Ito, a Tokyo University economist as the new central bank chief. Ito says Shirakawa talked down each BOJ monetary easing move with cautious language, describing it as a cold shower following each move. This is very different from the talk of the U.S. central bank chief Ben Bernanke, who gave clear signals to financial markets in his statements following monetary easing efforts of QE 1-3. Abe prefers a 2% inflation target and an activist central bank policy comparable to the U.S. Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke. Financial markets and exchange rates for yen have responded positively to Abe's policy goals....