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U.S. stocks drop sharply, the DOW by 850 points, as China responds to president Trump's threat of 10% tariff on additional $300 billion of Chinese goods by suspending all purchases of agricultural products from U.S. China also lets its currency the yuan weaken to 7 to the dollar to offset effect of tariffs.

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China is using inspections, extra bureaucratic hurdles that increase U.S. companies costs. This is closely correlated to the trade war with the U.S.

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"To Invest (at home), To Align (with allies), To Compete (with the world)" sums up the approach of president Biden with China. It also sums up the approach at home and overseas. Biden senior adviser, Jake Sullivan at Council of Foreign Relations sets out the framework and path for managing US-China relations into the future for many decades. Here at the Council of Foreign Relations he shows how- through careful study of the relationship's history, the changes in the relationship, and where it is today in 2024. Having participated in previous administrations Jake understood how it has evolved, where mistakes were made by both China and the US, where misperceptions took hold and need for clarification, for action. The old Strategic Dialogue followed by Paulsen under Bush 2000-2008 allowed the relationship to be guided by business interests, -without any clear strategy or idea where it was going except maximizing interests of business on both sides- was continued by Kerry under Obama 2008-2016. Sullivan, Blinken and Biden have built a Strategic Economic Cooperation Framework that has clear goals on the American side and goals on the Chinese side, and work between the two presidents and their cabinet ministers. Trump 2016-2020 rejected the earlier Strategic Dialogue but was not able to set up a sound framework that would guide future relations for decades. Sullivan helped set up a new framework around three principles- To Invest, To Align, and To Compete.   Here he describes how the plan to invest trillions in infrastructure in the US was part of this plan's principle To Invest. On Align it was to derisk not decouple by reducing the excessive concentration of supply chains in China, that was revealed as a problem in the pandemic years. Building up manufacturing at home and in India, Vietnam and Japan. Align also was to have allies Japan, South Korea and India to be aligned with the US policy. It also meant that all three countries would follow the same framework for their economies To Invest, To Align, To Compete.  By combining the strengths of the 2 largest economic centers Seoul/Tokyo with New Delhi/Sydney in Indo-Pacific the leveraging effect of US strength could be felt to support its position. And third to compete on level field so that America retained control of its technologies and implementing exports controls. And sharing this in  open communication with China that the US was protecting its technology and interests the way China has done in the past for its interests. The benefit of open communication even where there are differences had the advantage of not turning this into open rhetoric that damaged relations as had happened under previous administrations. Wang Yi on China's side having seen and approached it with careful study and reflection had similar goals to stabilize and put the relationship on a sound footing. Sullivan met extensively with Wang Yi in meetings in several locations around the world. Ministers Yellen, Raimondo, Blinken, Kerry, were sent to China for extensive discussions as part of this strategy in 2023 leading to remarkable change in the mood and confidence in US- China relations after tumult in 2016-2020 and uncertainty in previous administrations. Much credit goes to president Biden and Jake Sullivan, Anthony Blinken, and also to Wang Yi and Jinping in no way diminishing their own initiative, so that for the first time in decades the US China relationship is now on a stable footing. Both countries faced common challenges around counter narcotics, around climate change, and other issues. These are being addressed. Competition is managed carefully and no rhetoric is taking place so that the largest two economies and about 1.7 billion in US and China and 2 billion people who are allies in India/Indonesia/Vietnam/ Korea/Japan living on the same planet earth can have economic and other cooperation  with different cultures, economic structures and systems of government. The result of such a framework also gives the basis for cooperation with America's allies to invest in Africa and Latin America and in the people of these two continents as another level of alignment and investment for a safer better world. ...

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The UK decision makes purchases of Huawei equipment for UK 5G networks illegal from the end of 2020 and gives carriers till the end of 2027 to strip out existing Huawei gear from 5G networks. The move Mr. Dowden, British minister in charge of digital issues, says will cost $2.5 billion and delay the development of 5G by 2 to 3 years. He said the whole sector suffers from a "global market failure" and is "dangerously reliant on too few vendors." The UK and Australia, U.S. decision will accelerate the development of more vendors in international alliance to come up with alternatives. Other European governments face pressure from legislators in Germany, Italy, and France  to reconsider decisions on 5G. In the UK some members of parliament are critical of the long time given to phase out Huawei gear in 5G networks. 

 

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Zoom's deal to buy an American services software company Five9 for $15 billion is under US government review because of China ties. 

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US-China relations shift from adversarial to peaceful cooperation after the Busan meeting in South Korea in October 2025 between Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi. This is how the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC presented the meeting- a turning point in relations. In April 2026, 6 months later it appears that this is certainly the case as shown in the WSJ Analysis in the adjoining article. Both leaders have decided that they will avoid any actions that disrupt peaceful cooperation and maintain friendly relations in anticipation of the May 14-15 visit to Beijing of DJT which will be followed by a trip by Xi and Wang Yi, He Lifeng to the US. The spirit of cooperation is reflected in this statement- "China will host APEC 2026, and the U.S. the G20 summit next year. The two sides can support each other in making both summits productive to promote world economic growth and improve global economic governance. President Trump said that it is a great honor to meet President Xi. China is a great country. President Xi is a well respected great leader, and has been my good friend for many years. We have always got along well. The United States and China have always had a fantastic relationship, and it will be even better. We will make both China and the U.S. even better. China is the biggest partner of the U.S. Together, our two countries can get many great things done for the world and have many years of success. China will host APEC 2026, and the U.S. will host the G20 summit next year. We expect both to be successful." ...

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India and China agree to a legally binding deal on climate change and emissions that would be drafted by 2015, and take effect in 2020. This would bring them in line with or symmetrical with the U.S. and European countries for controlling emissions.

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China's Defense Minister Gen. Wei and Mr. Austin, US Defense Secretary are to meet on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore in 2022. Mr. Wei last met Defense Secretary Mark Esper in 2019 in Bagkok. No meetings have taken place since then. Gen. Wei is seen as an outspoken leader who told a conference in 2019 that the use of the military to stop the Tiananmen protests in Beijing in 1989 was the right step as this gave Chine three decades of peaceful development.

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WSJ's Jeremy Page looks at Admiral Wu's efforts to build U.S.-China naval ties through relations with Admiral Jonathan Greenert, head of U.S. Naval Operations. Admiral Wu has the backing of Chinese president Jinping to expand the influence and capabilities of China's Navy. A skeptical Senate Armed Services Committee led by Senator John McCain sees the effort to enroll Chinese officers at U.S. naval colleges, and offers of visits to Chinese ports by U.S. aircraft carriers, as a ways to increase the capabilities of China's Navy. McCain and members of Congress are alarmed by the effort to build China's naval power on the Spratly islands to extend control over the South China Sea and beyond. Wu is the only naval leader on the 11 man China Central Military Commission, headed by president Jinping, which commands China's armed forces. He joined the People's Liberation Army in 1964 and in 1988 has commanded a group of destroyers. Wu as an advocate for a greatly expanded mission for the Chinese Navy following what is called the "century of humiliation" with the Opium War in 1842, is seen with wariness with close neighbors Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, Australia and India....

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Increasing regional tensions with a more assertive Japan and China. U.S. president Obama's so called "pivot to Asia," appears to have little impact. China has tended to look for its own security architecture in Asia that excludes the U.S. U.S. efforts to reduce tensions are being ignored by China in May-June 2014, as China asserts itself in waters that are in dispute with Vietnam. The lack of U.S. influence compares unfavorably with the situation that prevailed since 1900, when the U.S. had the most significant influence in Asian waters. It has more to do with a policy of withdrawal under the Obama administration than U.S. capabilities. The policy of withdrawal in the Middle East comes after much of the sacrifice had been made and the situation in Iraq changed, so that for a much smaller incremental effort the U.S. could have both lived up to its principles and ideals for democracy and freedom as well as win public opinion in the Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East. This withdrawal in the Middle East has given Russia and China the wrong signal leading to more assertive stance in Europe and Asia, and creating uncertainty where little uncertainty existed about U.S. determination. Under whatever terms it is wrapped the policy of the Obama administration is one of withdrawal. It is dangerous because it will mean a more costly effort would be needed under a future administration to restore the situation which prevailed earlier- in which the U.S. has helped create a climate in which the entire region including China and Japan have prospered economically, without the region descending into a competition between Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and India. The Obama administration with its muddled policies has inadvertently created this situation....

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Biden sends Yellen and Blinken to Beijing in April 2024 to meet with premier Li Qiang and foreign minister Wang Yi to improve relations with China. Xi says China and the US can work through their differences including on Taiwan. As tensions increase in Europe with Ukraine and with another election cycle in the US, it is essential that the US, China, India and the EU work though differences on Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, and plan ahead for a future peace settlement in Ukraine with the support of all nations, especially ones with which the US and EU, have a strong trading and economic relationship. China needs export markets as its construction industry stalls and increases investment in manufacturing. The US continuing strong investment in manufacturing in the US, continuing to trade with China on a level playing field. Both sides have economic interests, and interests of the world to advance peaceful cooperation. 

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US foreign direct investment to China goes down 40% in 2020 to 2022 compared to the period 2015 to 2020, for India this was up by 20%, according to IMF. India was the only G-20 country that received this level of foreign direct investment. Prashant Jha of the Hindustan Times correctly points out that the IMF paper and the model on which this paper is based are flawed. The paper sees countries based on alignment and India as a so called non aligned country not part of friendshoring, even though Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has openly called for friendshoring in India alongside finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. IMF experts have not caught up to Mr. Biden's remarks about the US- India relationship that it would be "the closest on earth." Closer even than America's relationship with Britain or Europe. On oil imports Biden and Jake Sullivan believe that after the pandemic India should import oil at the lowest possible cost to meet the long time denied aspirations of 1.2 billion people, and build the infrastructure that will make it a critical part of America's new supply chain. Every time there are military drills and blockade of Taiwan by China the people of America are moving a step further away from American companies that have overconcentration of manufacturing in China and closer to calling for a new supply chain that reduces concentration in China and builds new manufacturing in India.  ...

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's remarks to the Australian foreign minister that the US will "not leave Australia alone on the field, or I should say alone on the pitch in the face of economic coercion from China." Trade relations between China and Australia are being reduced as Australia takes on a new role in the Indo-Pacific region.

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Bien and Xi Jinping of China meet for the first time at the G20 gathering in Indonesia. This leads to clarification of positions of both sides on Taiwan and the emphasis on peaceful cooperation to resolve differences. The US says Biden seeks peaceful competition with China and exchange of opinions on differences.

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Researchers David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Gordon Hanson of the University of California, San Diego, and David Dorn of the Center for Monetary and Fiscal Studies in Madrid, in independent research, studied the impact of trade on 722 clusters of interrelated counties in the U.S. They focussed on the surge in Chinese imports and found a pattern. Counties with higher exposure to Chinese import growth showed higher unemployment and higher expenditures by the government for unemployment benefits, food stamps and disability benefits. Their calculations show the increased government payments amount to one to two thirds of the gains from trade with China. This does not include the losses suffered by people losing jobs who deplete savings as they look for new jobs. Hanson studied the effects of trade and Chinese imports in the 1990's and found the effects were relatively small. This time the effects are large and show counties that lacked local investments in industrial machinery and technologies in which China was still playing catchup such as Caterpillar in Peoria, Illinois, and Boeing in Everett, Washington, were most susceptible to higher jobless rates and in need of government support payments. Autor and Hanson found that from 2000-2007, communities in the 75th percentile- ones with greater exposure to Chinese import growth than 75% of all communities- saw a manufacturing jobless rate of about one-third more than communities in the 25th percentile. The government payments mean higher taxes or larger deficits are needed to support these communities, and long periods of unemployment reduce the incentive to work. Michael Spence, a Nobel prize winning economist from New York University, says the world has never seen such a rapid pace of growth as China experienced between 2000-2011, with rates approaching 12% in some years, making past experience and prevailing theories on trade an insufficient guide to what is happening....