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How European countries Germany, Poland, Britain, France, and Italy are increasing their defense forces and defense budgets to counter Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its military preparations is shown here in DW.com. Under chancellor Merz Germany plans to invest 5% of its GDP in defense for the first time and build Bundeswehr defense forces as the best in Europe. A key factor says DW.com was the speech of chancellor Scholz three days after the invasion of Ukraine, a speech that changed minds in Germany about the needs for defense in the 21st century. It is called the Zeitenwende or turning point speech on Feb 27, 2022.

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This report in WSJ says at an event in Germany in 2022 Merkel said that after annexing Crimea in 2014 Putin told her he wanted to destroy the European Union. Yet Merkel did not hesitate to double gas imports from Russia after 2014. Joachim Gauck, president of Germany when Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014 says Merkel's decision to boost energy imports from Russia after that aggression was surely a mistake. Gauck stated "some people recognize their mistakes earlier, some later. Her decisions for over concentration of Germany's manufacturing in China led to a similar situation with China that is only now beginning to unravel. The two decisions overconcentration of energy dependence on Russia and manufacturing dependence with overconcentration in China have had interwoven effects and shows Merkel did not grasp the implications and dangers of overconcentration or excessive dependence on any one country. Merkel instead doubled gas imports from Russia and had the Nord Stream 2 pipeline built at a time when Germany was already 55% dependent on Russian imports of energy. She moved too quickly to phase out nuclear energy completely after Fukushima accident leading to Russian gas imports rapidly increasing. When leaving office she said LNG which Germany has now used to replace Russian gas from places such as Norway to Qatar under efforts of Deputy chancellor Habeck was a third more costly.  It could be said that with her sheltered upbringing in the more affluent sections of Communist East Germany's, the GDR's, educational sector, Merkel had such limited exposure to the world that when she emerged as Kohl's preferred choice in ministry positions she was headed for the chancellorship without the right qualifications for leadership. When one considers the experience of an Konrad Adenauer or a Willy Brandt through the World War II years, Merkel's experience for the chancellorship not only pales by any comparison, but also shows significant limits of comprehension and sound or right thinking of the issues facing Germany and the world in the twentieth and twenty first century. ...

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So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...

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On April 21, 2022, US president Biden talks to Americans in a live television address and says US will send an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine. And an additional $500 million in economic assistance that takes the total economic assistance to $1 billion. He asks Congress to approve additional requests so that an uninterrupted flow of aid to Ukraine can be maintained to deter Russian aggression. He also opens up a path for direct entry into the US for some of the 5 million Ukrainian refugees. He calls attention to the 5 million refugees and to the millions of displaced children. He says about two thirds of the children in Ukraine are displaced by the war which he found to be shocking.

Biden said "you've got to admit- be amazed at the courage of the country, and of the young men and the young women." 

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Foreign Minister Wadephul of Germany in India for talks on a free trade agreement that would double trade volume to $64 billion- September 2025. It is notable that German Foreign Minister is in New Delhi to improve relations and shift to larger trade relationship with India at the very time US under pressure from Europe and Germany, France is pushing India to shift away from buying Russian oil to other sources. Each side is aware of the complexities in the relationships. In the long run Germany under Merz will after the experience of China's support of Russian invasion in Ukraine, make the changes that never happened under Merkel- making India its major trade partner in Asia. By 2030 Germany trade's with India could exceed $100 billion.

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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will spend Tuesday night August 2 in Taipei, Taiwan. China has threatened severe consequences and Taiwanese forces are on alert. Yet with over $1 trillion in China's exports to US and EU in 2021 the response will have to take this into account as also the US and EU to redesign its supply chains. This is the first trip of a senior US official to Taiwan as Speaker Pelosi comes next to the Vice President to succeed the presidency. The US response to the Russian attack on Ukraine was made in Biden's word as a deterrent to China in its role in the Indo-Pacific region. The Pelosi trip may be a reflection of this policy that seeks to maintain the US position that Indo-Pacific is international waters, that US policy will continue as before undeterred by actions such as the Russian attack on Ukraine with the support of China. And that US will engage fully with allies in the Indo-Pacific- Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. And that is doing this with the cooperation of its allies in the region- Australia, Japan and India. US and EU imports from China are $541 and $522 billion over $1 trillion for 2022. Loss of even a significant portion of these exports from major tensions in the region would have a severe impact on Chinese economic growth. The US and EU are already engage in redesigning the supply chain and would also face problems in a transition similar to the gas rationing in Germany after cutoff of Russian supplies. The trade is too big a factor at this time. ...

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Renewable energy will get a big boost after the Ukraine war but there will be a period of transition during which more fossil fuels are produced in the US, Qatar and other parts of the Middle East to meet demand in Europe in 2022. Europe is working to develop alternative supplies of energy in an effort to move away from dependence on Russian energy.

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US and Iran accept Pakistan's mediation of the war with a 2 week ceasefire and opening of Straits of Hormuz- April 7 2026. The mediation by prime minister Sharif of Pakistan gave both sides in the war a way to back down. Both sides agreed to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. As a partner of Pakistan, China may also have a role in setting up a settlement as China and Japan have the most to lose from the Straits of Hormuz being closed, oil prices rocketing up to $115 and higher, and even a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz Straits. Both China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits. Oil prices drop to the $100 level from $115 after the announcement of talks in Islamabad. This is not a long term settlement. After the two weeks US president meets president Xi of China in Beijing shortly afterwards on May 14-15. It is likely that preparations for that trip will involve China and Pakistan working together to get the US and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire. One outcome of this war is as Le Monde has noted- the unreliability of Hormuz supplies and shift to imports from US and Venezuela and other parts of the world for fossil fuels. And with this a renewed effort to reduce the fossil fuels needed by accelerating renewable energy supplies in Europe, India and China. More attention will also be focused on reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by all major powers. Removing US involvement in NATO may also turn out to be positive in some ways to bring Russia and US as nuclear powers to better working relationships, and reduce the nuclear arms race and weapons race. For Europe it means meeting needs of Ukraine and improving military capabilities. The overall result may be positive for all countries. The Middle East region will be seen as one in which no powers should get involved in and the Middle East will also find it has squandered its valuable oil dividend in five decades of wars and mismanagement and fall behind the rest of Asia and Europe, the US in economic progress and development. ...

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Elected to the Politburo in 1980, Gorbachev became president of USSR in 1985. In the six year period to 1991 he launched a movement to free the USSR from the rigid constraints of communist party rule called Perestroika to improve productivity, freedoms and quality of life. He came from a peasant family with Ukrainian origins and was born in 1931 during the period of upheaval in Russia. The rapid removal of Soviet rule was something Russia was not able to adapt to in the early years with no experience in democratic process. By 2000 after drop in life expectancy and fall in the standard of living Mr. Putin emerged as president.  Russia's economy recovered under Putin's three terms till the miscalculations in the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, that were itself a result of a sense that Russia had lost something with the fall of the Soviet Union and the advancement of NATO and the European Union. Gorbachev's sense in his memoirs was that Russia would do best under democracy. Even in 2017 he wrote that Russia and its people were "ready for a real multiparty system, fair elections and a regular rotation of government." Yet he was too much of an optimist and not enough hands on to grasp that Russia was a large economy and safeguards had to be put in place for the rule of law to prevent lawless elements that could control companies, safeguards for the vulnerable sections of society such as pensioners and older people, and limited self government through elected assemblies and parliaments were needed for a decade before democracy to take roots. Gorbachev's knowledge of American and British democracies, constitutions and parliaments and their evolution over centuries was non existent, with little contact and education of this sort under the Czar or Soviets. The democracies in Germany and Japan were established with American power and extensive education, the Marshall Plan, and unlimited imports by the US from Japan to prevent economic catastrophes of the kind experienced by the Weimar Republic in Germany in the 1920's. No plan from western aid and assistance, limited self government of the people was introduced as training ground as in India. In India the British introduced limited self-government or Swaraj in the 1930's with elected assemblies in Indian states, in the pattern of Dominion states such as Canada and Australia. Mohandas Gandhi negotiated the rights of indentured Indians in South Africa in this arrangement and studied British law and constitutions. This led to the catastrophic failure of the rule of law in Russia after 1979, lawless elements emerging under Yeltsin  that controlled companies and the state, high unemployment, failure of the economy, and drop in life expectancy between 1979 and 2005. How this led to the Putin years and now led to the war in Ukraine is covered in more detail under the Lyrarc article on Gorbachev and how he is seen in Germany. ...

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Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck says Germany has plans to almost completely end Russian energy imports by the end of the year. For this to happen Germany has to make extensive progress in cutting oil imports in a short time. By the end of summer the Russian energy imports will be cut by half. The effort is significant because before the invasion of Ukraine Germany received 50% of its coal, 55% of its gas, and 35% of its oil from Moscow. Coal deliveries will end by the end of autumn. 

Habeck confirmed that current contracts with Russian companies to import energy will not be renewed. He also confirmed that Russian gas deliveries will take longer to be stopped- not till mid-2024.

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There are serious differences in what Ukraine says it received $67 billion military aid and $31 for budget needs compared to the $350 billion figure cited by DJT. DJT calls Zelensky as not legitimately representing Ukraine as no elections can be called in Ukraine in wartime and Zelensky's term expired in 2024, saying should'nt the people of Ukraine be at the table. He also says Ukraine was at the table for 3 years and even a half baked negotiator could have settled this war. What DJT means is that Ukraine could have settled it by promising to stay out of NATO, and remain neutral not joining the EU. It would have given up control over formerly Russia supporting parts of Ukraine in the east that Russia now controls. Ukraine would have returned to being a buffer zone between Western Europe and Russia of today. Even today this has not changed as any peace would not reverse the status quo of control of these eastern regions by Russia. On NATO Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says- "Trump (DJT) is the first, and so far only Western leader to publicly and loudly say that one of the root causes of the Ukraine situation is the impudent line of the previous administration to draw Ukraine into NATO.” Zelensky's popularity has fallen in Ukraine as the war drags on. DJT says US has put $350 billion in Ukraine and asked for an agreement committing half of Ukraine's rare earth resources to the US. Zelensky says he cannot sell the state out. Zelensky's estimate of US assistance is $67 billion military aid and $31 billion in aid for the budget. ...

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This report in the WSJ looks at the war in Ukraine in July 2022 as seen from the Ukrainian side. Ukraine has 12 million people displaced or refugees, about a third of the population, particularly in the east. Most of the refugees are women and children. Cities in the east and the south face artillery attacks and airspace over Ukraine lacks the air defense systems that would help Ukrainians live lives not constantly under threat of bombs going off. In this situation and with the massive damage, there is also a breakdown of trust on both sides. Not just the leadership but 93% of the population is against negotiating a peace till the territories lost in the south and the east are regained, says this WSJ report. This report shows Zelensky describing his typical day, his yearning for peace, but serious fears after the failure of the 2014 peace agreements with Russia that Russia is simply negotiating agreements so that it can consolidate its control over territory till it launches another attack. This means that the war will go into a counter offensive phase in the south where Ukraine has its economic links on the Black Sea around the port of Odessa. Ukraine will want to recover the territories in the south so that its future on the Black Sea is restored to what it was before. The eastern part of Ukraine in the Donbas region is being integrated into Russia and Ukraine may seek to improve its position in that area around major cities that it controls and controlled till losses in June.  The lack of air defense systems over Ukrainian airspace that would protect civilians and people of Ukraine in the countryside and cities is what hurts Ukrainians the most. It is the reason why there are so many refugees and displaced people. The US and European countries have failed to provide the air defense systems that would have protected the civilian population and created the worst aspects of this war in the number of refugees having to flee their homes and seeing them destroyed. Years from now people may look back and say this is the worst aspect of this war apart from the claims of either side. As Lincoln said during the civil war in the US in his annual message of 1862 the land is there for ever, and this generation will pass away. The conflicts and tearing apart that this generation of Russians and Ukrainians have experienced, may not be the feelings of future generations.  ...

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Russia begins evacuation of residents of Ukraine as the city becomes a war zone. The war on the Dnieper river in the south of Ukraine near the Black Sea enters a new phase as Ukraine seeks to preserve its coastline on the Black sea ports including Odessa. These ports are its lifeline to Western Europe and the world to ship its grain and food that supplies the Middle East and Africa. This makes it a vital connection for Turkey, Egypt and other parts of Africa that depend on Ukrainian food supplies. Any future peace agreement is likely to take into account this food connection. The other connection Ukraine seeks to preserve is its industrial region in the east in the area around Kharkiv.

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French and German support for Ukraine alongside the US is critical for the ongoing effort to restore security on the Black Sea ports for Ukraine and on either side of the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine front. This is also critical for world food supplies particularly for Egypt and North African countries. A UN sponsored agreement with Turkish help is what makes it possible to ship Ukrainian grain to these countries from Black Sea port of Odessa. Even more critical after the drought has impacted grain harvests worldwide.

At one point Odessa was the target of Russian forces. Ukraine seeks to regain the Black Sea region in 2022 as its outlet to the world and to support its economic independence as a food exporting nation.

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The question whether the source of the coronavirus that led to deaths of more than 1 million Americans is a lab leak at a Wuhan lab in China is still being checked. The Energy Department says that with  "low confidence" it emerged from a lab leak at Wuhan, China. Earlier in 2021 the FBI stated that it was the result of a lab leak not a natural transmission. The Energy Department runs many labs doing research in the field. Petroleum exports supported the allied war effort in two world wars says this report in the WSJ. Europe is shunning Russian oil after its invasion of Ukraine.

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Former German chancellor Angela Merkel and foreign minister Steinmeier are singled out for their policies that likely emboldened Russia into its invasion of Ukraine. The DW.com says Merkel's tenure now shows deep seated flaws in leadership with her policies with Russia having gone too far in the other direction and leaving Europe in a vulnerable position. Merkel saw herself as continuing old policies from the period of SPD chancellor Willy Brandt of engaging with Russia, then called the Soviet Union. Yet looking at it closely the policy of Brandt was to reach accomodation with the eastern half of Germany, called the GDR, not to weaken Germany's position. By distancing herself from the US Merkel was in sense out on her own. Consider says DW.com that in 2014 Germany imported 36% of its gas from Moscow, by 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine it was 55%. The SPD under Gerhard Schroeder and Steinmeier following Schroeder share responsibility with Merkel for this dependence.    A similar integration of the German economy with China's economy happened under the 4 term administration of Angela Merkel. This can be seen in the port of Hamburg. This may have similarly emboldened China in its relations with neighbors in the Indo-Pacific region and with Taiwan. German chancellor Scholz is by one report reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms- "Europe The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." This historical account of the relations of major European states in the 5 centuries before the present period shows the Balance of Power as critical to the liberty and freedom that Britain and Netherlands as well as other countries were able to keep. Sweden was attacked in 1700 with sign of weakness, Britain faced challenges from France in 1700 and in 1800, and allied with the Hapsburgs and German states to maintain its democracy and way of life. Merkel of CSU and Steinmeier of SPD may have failed to realize this when they ignored the history of Europe. The WSJ report on the miscalculations on the German and French side with Sarkozy, Hollande and Macron show that all these leaders failed to grasp that by leaving the issue unsettled of Ukraine's NATO admission they had created the situation that was bad for both Russia and for Ukraine, creating seeds for serious differences that could lead to future conflict and war. By not respecting and giving room to the lessons of history these leaders in Western Europe have created the conditions for the very opposite of what they intended to do.  ...

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The European Union goes forward with $39 billion for Ukraine aid. The aid is backed by interest from the $300 billion in Russian assets in Europe frozen when war began. Another $15-20 billon is expected from the US when legal questions about frozen Russian assets are resolved- the US asking for a 36 month review of sanctions to replace 6 months in place in 2024. The European Union offices in Brussels have done a poor job of communicating how the EU is  aiding Ukraine with its own resources. Lyrarc.com had to point out that Ukraine aid from EU was about twice that of the US at about $200 billion compared to about $95 billion for the US. Former president Trump stated that this was just the opposite the US spending twice what the US was spending. Media in today's world means little or nothing because it operates highly fragmented and organically outside the control of any particular source online, television or print. And established sources apart from bias are spread so thin many important matters for the betterment of people's lives or giving a true picture from which to make observations, are left to wither or distort. The highly formal  corporate environments of the EU are impervious to the outside so that institutions such as the ECB, European Union headquarters are out of touch with the people worldwide.  ...

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Russian strategy is to continue to make gains and not seek an immediate ceasefire. Russian drone attacks on Ukraine continue in May 2025.

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Potash a potassium based fertilizer mined from the earth is environmentally friendly unlike nitrogen and phosporous based fertilizers. When Belarus and Russia which make 40% of world supply of potash could not supply the world market because of the war in Ukraine, Canadian producers which make 30% of potash stepped in to increase market share. Two Canadian producers will increase production to meet demand after a 28% increase in the price of potash. Potash has the added advantage of being good for the environment and for climate change action. The use of potash needs to double to meet climate change action goals. Nutrien, the world's largest producer of potash in Saskatchewan, Canada will increase production by 2026 from 15 million tons to 18 million tons a year. BHP has a new plant coming up in Saskatchewan in 2026 for 4.35 million metric tons of potash. 

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In August 2008 Russia invaded Georgia and established the independence of the 2 breakaway countries of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia tried to enter NATO that year but the French and the Germans objected, and the U.S. did not want to commit deep in the Caucasus region. In the 2012 election the anti-Moscow government of Mr. Saakashvili was replaced by a government that sought friendly relations with the West and with Russia. There are still no embassies between Russia and Georgia. A special representative to Russia was appointed in the new government of Mr. Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire who made his money in metals and banking in Russia. Saakashvili is now a Ukrainian citizen and is a governor of Odessa province, on the Black Sea, with separatist influence. Russia's trade ties with Georgia, a destination for Georgia's exports including wine, are gradually being restored after a trade embargo imposed in 2006. The trade embargo was lifted in 2013. The representative to Russia says its no use keeping the illusion of NATO membership even though it is an objective, as Georgia has to defend itself, the consequence of being in a difficult region. The strident anti-Russian rhetoric is now muted, as Georgia rethinks its relationship with Russia and the West to live in a difficult neighborhood. Ukraine went through some wild swings with the Orange Revolution, and the change in government to a pro-Russian government that jailed the earlier leader for corruption, leading to the protest movement calling for close relations to the West, the collapse of the elected pro-Russian government followed by the election of Mr. Poroshenko, and the Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2014-2015, leading to western sanctions on Russia. The sanctions end in Jan 31, 2016. The situation in Ukraine may stabilize where the NATO readiness force and German chancellor Merkel's call for "a persistent NATO presence in the Baltic states," lead to a situation where Russia determines the best course is cooperation with its neighbors, and trade, economic relations....

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Elbridge Colby memo led to slowing of US shipments to Ukraine in July 2025 just as Russia expanded its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. Leading DJT to resume all shipments and override Colby as he supported shipment of Patriot systems to  Ukraine, with Germany willing to pay for the cost. Who is Colby? Colby 45 years, was made undersecretary of defense for policy in DJT second term. He is the grandson of a former CIA director, attended school in Japan where his father was working at an investment bank, and later at Yale Law School. Colby's view is for the US to focus on Asia, specifically on China and the defense of Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan. He does not favor Ukraine in NATO, sees Russia as a potential partner, and is a Republican who opposed the war in Iraq as a monumental waste of American resources. Some of his views are controversial such as focus only on China when US faces other threats around the world. Colby opposed an attack on Iran and even argued that US could manage a nuclear armed Iran which he has now retracted. ...

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Egypt plans to tackle the financial crisis after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine by increasing natural gas exports by one third. It has the LNG terminals to do this which are underutilized. The LNG could be exported to Asia or Europe at ten times the price buyers in Egypt pay for it. The way this additional natural gas is to be exported is to impose 15% cut in use of natural gas in Egypt similar to what the European Union has done with its 15% mandated reduction. This will then be diverted to LNG terminals. The max temperature for air conditioning is 25 degrees under the new plan and lights are dimmed or shut off after 11 pm in streets, shops and malls.  The war in Ukraine has doubled the price of wheat and other basic food necessities imported from Ukraine and Russia. This put a heavy burden on state finances in Egypt with subsidies on bread and other food for 70 million people out of 102 million people. Investment needs are also affected. Saudi Arabia has stepped in with help as no IMF program has been set. A 14% devaluation of the currency took place in 2022 and another devaluation of the currency is expected. ...

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Much of inflation's rise in the US has been transitory after all, says Greg Ip in the WSJ, yet credit Jay Powell at the Fed for his resolute fight against inflation. Gasoline that was over $5.00 a gallon in June when inflation was at 9.1% following Russia's Ukraine war is now $3.27 according to AAA, and this is an important reason why inflation is at 6.5% in December 2023. Demand for autos after pandemic and lockdowns coupled with supply chain problems caused auto prices and used car prices to rise sharply. This is now reversing with price declines. Ultra low interest rates caused a jump in home prices- this is reversing with Jay Powell and the Fed increasing interest rates sharply.

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The European Union is making good use of the crisis in Ukraine to ramp up its shift to renewable energy. This WSJ report shows charts of where the EU is focusing its efforts from conservation, heat pumps, hydrogen, to wind and solar. Wind and solar show massive increases by 2030. By 2030 the European Union plans to increase wind and solar energy from 20 billion cubic metres to 170 billion cubic metres according to estimates from The European Commission shown in this graph by WSJ.

By the end of 2022 two thirds of Russian natural gas imports to the EU will have been replaced and by 2030 all of such imports will be replaced. 

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Germany is going through a second year of slight economic contraction. The newly elected government of chancellor Merz has setup a $1 trillion fund to invest in infrastructure and defense. This will increase the debt to GDP ratio from 62% much lower than other advanced economies to 75%, and could give the German economy a rebound with $500 billion for fixing aging infrastructure. Germany's unemployment rate stands at 6.3% in March 2025. The economy weathered a energy crisis with the cutoff of energy supplies from Russia during the term of chancellor Scholz. Infrastructure, child care, was neglected under Merkel and previous administrations as it was in the US under Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. The 2009 financial crisis, the eurozone debt crisis and the pandemic, Ukraine crisis from 2009 to 2024 have provided headwinds for action to renew Germany till now. A $1 trillion new fund and removal of the constitutional brake under the newly elected parliamentary majority of the CSU/CDU, the SPD and the Greens is the first step with $500 billion earmarked for fixing aging infrastructure, digitization of the economy, and other investment. The unemployment situation is deteriorating in the auto industry which was poorly managed and is now being hit with US tariffs of 25% on imported cars made by BMW, Mercedes and VW. ...