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US public companies, manufacturers and retailers that make up more than half of the S&P 500 index, came out with strong sales per share of 24% increase in 2022 over 2019. This means slower growth is expected ahead in 2023, says Justin Lahart in the WSJ.  The shift to consuming more services such as dentist visits and tourism from buying washing machines and appliances will mean slower sales for these large companies that are manufacturers and retailers. Fed chairman Jay Powell's higher interest rates will also limit growth in sales in 2023. Overall the US economy may barely skirt a recession, and this depends on which forecaster one talks to.

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The average price of a smartphone in India in 2022 was $206 excluding taxes, Apple's smartphones go for $898. With discounts Apple is now bringing the price down to below $500. In 2019 phones over $500 made up 3% of the market. This has increased to 6% in 2022. Apple is counting on this share of the market going up and prices being brought down below $500 to build a larger share of the market. Its market in 2023 is about 5% in India compared to 22% in China.

In China Apple has its own stores. It is only now opening its first store in Mumbai. This and building manufacturing facilities in India could be the way to increase its share of the market in India to where it provides an alternative comparable to the Chinese market. This is the first time after the pandemic and the supply chain issues, the idea of friendshoring, that Apple is reorienting its policy for making India a key part of its supply chain and market. 

 

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Mr Biden's bold vision for the US in infrastructure, in health and education, in competing in the world is outlined in this video in the NYT of his address to the joint session of the US Congress in April 2021. Biden is determined to move quickly and this comes across in the first 100 days. He says he "has never been more optimistic and confident about America."

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China's loans and projects in Latin America and the unwinding of projects in 2026. China had shifted policy to collecting back $10 billion of loans to Venezuela in meetings of its envoy with Maduro the day the US acted to remove Maduro, says this report in WSJ. China is shifting to reduce losses in the region from loans. Over last 2 decades China has loaned Venezuela $100 billion in exchange for oil shipments. As its oil industry production declined without US assistance Venezuela went deeper in debt. This is another aspect of the problems that this type of model of development brings to finance building of rail and transport, seen across the world from Venezuela down to small countries like Sri Lanka and Zambia. For China this could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars in loans that lack transparency and are opaque to Africa and Latin America, when its construction industry debt and local government debt has led to problems. Other solutions and alternatives are needed.   ...

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After the disaster of the Japanese Fukushima nuclear plant in 2011 following a tsunami and earthquake chancellor Merkel made the decision to close nuclear plants. Germany will close 3 nuclear plants in December 2021. Decommissioning will take 20 years and 1.1 billion euros per plant. In 2022 Germany will have only 3 nuclear plants in Bavaria, Baden-Wurttemberg, and Lower Saxony, equivalent to power of 4 gigawatts from 1000 wind turbines. Gas prices are up 10 fold in 2021 as Germany makes the shift to wind and solar. Economy and Climate Protection Minister Habeck of the Greens party in the new German government sees a continuation of the policy removing nuclear plants and shifting to wind and solar.

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From Kansas to Southern Spain, pictures from The Guardian show the great conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in the night skies looking out into The Milky Way in December 2020. At the time of the pandemic understanding how small our world is on this planet as light travels at 300,000 kilometres per second and it takes 2 seconds to reach earth from the moon, thousands of years for light to reach earth from distant stars of which scientists say there are 200 billion. A British scientist and astronomer says there are 200 billion in a new book "The History of the Universe in 21 Stars."

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The ruling party LDP's defense committee has decided Japan needs to strike North Korean missiles on the ground. There is a growing consensus on this. Another consensus is developing over the issue of protecting the Senkaku islands adminstered by Japan and claimed by China. 

Earlier in 2020 T12 missiles with 100 kilometres range were deployed on Miyako island between Kyushu and Taiwan. Now these missiles range will be increased to 300 kilometres to reach the Senkaku islands. China has sent patrol planes and ships near the Senkaku islands. Other cruise missile range is planned for 1000 kilometres as Japan Self Defense Forces expand their capabilities to take on more of the responsibility for defending the Japanese islands. In alliance with India and Australia this capability is being expanded to the entire Indian Ocean region to counter an expansionist China.

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How Mamdani won NYC - 20-40% increase in turnout on a 100 degree F day. And by increasing the liberal coalition of the 2021 Democrat primary of Kathryn Garcia in lower Manhattan, and of Maya Wiley in other parts of NYC. This is what a Washington Post Analysis of the 43% of the vote won by Zohran Mamdani a 33 year old NYC resident shows, as his opponent Andrew Cuomo got 36%.

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Michigan Governor Whitmer, a Democrat, says she supports tariffs in a state hit hard by offshoring of American factories and loss of jobs leading to decay of small towns depending on factories. She says tariffs should be done in a way that do not increase cost of living for workers and families. Whitmer calls for distribution of tariff revenues to workers and small businesses hit by tariff related price increases in this op-ed in the Washington Post. DJT has called for a $2000 rebate to go to American workers and their families and all who are impacted by tariffs using the tariff revenues in 2025 and 2026 estimated at $550 billion. Expect to see this money to go out to workers before the midterm elections. 

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The NASDAQ index reached 5000 by April 2015, a level reached in the stock market boom in 2000. Yet investment strategists who were wary of the stock market in the period before the 2000-2002 collapse of the market see this market differently. The NASDAQ itself is not what it was in 2000, with the 2015 NASDAQ component stocks being different for the most part, and the healthcare and other sectors better represented in the index. Only three of the stocks in the top ten in 2000 are in the top ten today, including Microsoft. The S&P 500 trades in April 2015 at 18.5 times its company earnings for the past 12 months, compared to an historical average of 15.5, according to research firm Bespoke. A big part of the difference today is the investment climate of low inflation, which gives the U.S. Federal Reserve flexibility in raising rates. Low rates make bonds with lower yields less attractive, and increase the present value of future earnings. The yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury was 1.917% on April 25, 2015. In April 2000 it was 6%, and in mid 2007 it was 5.3% before the financial crisis in the two periods. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management oversees $347 billion in fund investments. He also was wary of the U.S. stock market in 1999, yet he does not see the similiar kind of risks today, and sees a long term bullish trend. The scenario he envisages is more of a pause or temporary decline. Paulsen has shifted money to European markets, as U.S. stocks are becoming more expensive relative to their European counterparts, a strategy that is being followed by other money managers since 2014. Higher price volatility is seen in the markets in 2015, with the S&P 500 up 2.9% for the first four months of 2015, and the Dow up 1.4%. ...

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After 3 decades the US is finally offering the scale and scope of infrastructure investment overseas that is needed. President Biden says $200 billion will be invested in infrastructure overseas over 5 years at meetings of the G-7 in the Alps south of Munich in Germany. Along with its partners and with government and private investments the size of the investment will reach $600 billion over 5 years to 2027. This will include projects such as $2 billion for solar energy in Angola, and a $600 million submarine telecommunications cable connecting France to Singapore.

It is a combination of direct government aid and private investment. President Biden sees Build Back Better World as the overseas version of his Build Back Better America for workers and families in the US for which Congress has authorized $1 trillion in infrastructure and climate change initiatives in the US.

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President Macron announces a curfew from 9.00 pm to 6.00 am in Paris and eight other metropolitan regions of France covering about a third of the population. The cities are in addition to Paris region, Grenoble, Lille, Lyon, Marseille, Montpellier, Saint Etienne, Rouen, Toulouse.  Macron said "we have to act now." The president called for bringing the daily cases which have reached a high of 27,000 by October 14 to about 3000 or 5000. About 1600 of the 5000 ICU beds in France are now taken for coronavirus cases and the curfew is an effort to keep the numbers from jumping as they did in March  and April 2020. To do this he said: "we won't be leaving the restaurant after 9.00 pm and we won't be partying with friends because we know that that's where the contamination risk is greatest." Macron made it clear that scientists are all in agreement on the pandemic continuing till the summer of 2021. He urged people to limit gatherings at home to 6 people and wear masks.  Financial support will be given to people affected by the curfew in the hospitality industry.  Anyone found outdoors after 9.00 pm will be fined 135 euros and 10 times that for repeat offences.  ...

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Mr. Pascal Soriot of Astra Zeneca says his company has signed agreements for production of 2 billion doses of the coronavirus vaccine being developed by Oxford University. He says manufacturing is starting now because "we want it to be as fast as possible." One of the deals is with Serum Institute of India, the other is with Bill Gates of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for $750 million for CEPI and GAVI organizations which he supports. Mr. Soriot says the licensing agreement with Serum Institute is to supply one billion doses for low and middle income countries, with 400 million doses ready by end of 2020. He says Astra Zeneca is building supply chains across the world and so far has secured manufacturing capacity for 2 billion doses of the vaccine. Mr Soriot tells BBC that manufacturing vaccines on this scale is not an easy thing to do. He says that Astra Zeneca will not make a profit in production of these Oxford University developed vaccines. The U.S. has secured 300 million doses of the Oxford vaccine, and the UK 100 million doses.   ...

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Kharg Island near Hormuz and Jask Island on Gulf of Oman two of Iran's main oil export terminals. Oil is pumped by underwater sea pipelines to storage tanks that hold 30 million barrels on Kharg Island then loaded onto oil tankers that make their way through the Hormuz Straits. The oil is shipped to teapot refineries in China- smaller independent oil refineries in China that have not faced sanctions. This oil is shipped at a discount. How does China pay for this oil? China gets 2.1 million barrels a day from this source. It is paid for with a $400 billion Chinese investment in Iran under a 25 year Comprehensive Partnership Agreement signed in 2021 during the Biden Administration in the US. The investment covers energy, infrastructure and technology in Iran. At $60 a barrel before the Iran War China would have an import oil bill of $46 billion for 1 years supply of oil from Iran. This was paid for in yuan based transactions and barter systems which involved Iranian construction projects performed by China and exchange of other products, raw materials. ...

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Deep polarization is seen also in South Korea. Policy issues are not being discussed with eligible voters divided evenly among progressives in their 40's and 50's and conservatives over 60 years, and about 20% of the voting public that are independents and younger voters deciding the elections in South Korea. As in the US cost of living is an issue, down to the price of onions of which president Yoon is seen as not paying attention to. Conservative People Power Party of president Yoon is expected to gain only about 100 seats of 300 seats in the National Assembly in the parliamentary election in South Korea. Yoon won in a tight race with Lee a candidate from the Liberal Democratic Party in 2022, which is expected to win about 200 of 300 Assembly seats. Yoon is building a close relationship with the US and Japan and visited the US for talks with Biden. The election is not expected to affect the close relations of US with South Korea. It reflects the polarization in South Korea, Yoon's effort for corporate tax cuts may not go through. The opposition has made allegations of corruption and abuse of power, and the cost of living, as campaign issues. About a third of 44 million eligible voters have cast votes. Younger voters and moderates appear not to trust Yoon. ...

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Ford plans to reduce the weight of its F-150 pickup truck by about 700 pounds, a 15% reduction in weight, by switching parts of the body from steel to aluminium. The new F-150 pickup truck is designed to be introduced in 2014 and capable of meeting new fuel efficiency standards through 2020. This would enable a 25% increase in fuel efficiency and help meet the Obama administration fuel efficiency standards of 2011, which require the U.S. vehicle fleet to average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.

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Two years after it was launched the Jal Jeevan Mission to bring tap water to every household in India has made significant progress. Only 17% of all rural households had tap water in 2019, today even with covid disruptions 41% of rural households have tap water. 48 million more households have tap water connections added. The goal of Har Ghar Jal (Every home tap water) is now seen as achievable by 2024. Financing in 2021-2022 is increased from 115 billion rupees to 500 billion rupees, quadrupling the financial resources dedicated to providing water to all of India's people. The Swach Bharat Mission Director General, Akshay Rout, shows how this mission for water is moving as as quickly as the open defecation free ODF mission  under SBM. A household in ODF saved Rupees 50,000 a year from cleanliness and medical costs according to UNICEF. A WHO study shows 200,000 diaorrhea deaths prevented. JJM is decentralized, demand driven and community managed. Rout says that setting a deadline and aiming for saturation that leaves on one behind is a good way of tackling critical problems such as hygiene, sanitation and water. He says shoddy implementation or product can be prevented by robust monitoring and supervision systems. By 2019 India had made big achievement in hygiene and clean India campaign with ODF open defecation free achieved under this approach. ...

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War in Ukraine after failed Alaska effort by US to end the war. In September 2025 Russia holds out, spurning peace efforts from the US president, to see if the economy holds out over the next 24 months and Russia can get Ukraine to abandon it's efforts to join the EU and Western European alliances. The baffling aspect of this war is that the neutral aspect adopted by Finland before the war, by Sweden, by the Swiss, was never considered as a realistic option by Ukraine, looking beyond the problems of the 1930's and having awareness that there were weaknesses in both the capitalist and the Soviet systems, to take the broad larger view. And with that being realistic that a better effort would be to reflect on the corruption and lack of clean government, the need to build the healthy institutions that would serve the people best. The approach taken by Gandhi in India in its relations with Britain, to preserve the best and improve on what failed the Indian people, and reflect on the integrity, the right attitude needed for India in the Modern World. From the Russian side the failure to use the period before the shift to renewable energy to invest the capital used in the war of $200 billion a year for a stronger economy and industrial base in 2022- 2027- an investment of a trillion dollars that would make it the industrial power and support its position as the preeminent power in Northern Europe. ...

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A 7 year redevelopment project is taken up for the Dharavi slum part of Mumbai between the Dharavi Redevelopment Authority and the Indian Railways. The Deputy CM of Maharashtra Devendra Fadnavis and Union Minister of Railways Ashwini Vaishnaw signed the agreement for handing over by Indian Railways of 47.5 acres of land in Dadar for the Redevelopment. Dharavi is Asia's largest slum cluster home to 58,000 families and 12,000 commercial businesses. Cost of project keeps going up from 4000 crore in 2004, to 28,000 crore in 2022. The State government is looking at a joint venture where the lead bidder for the projects- with Maharashtra government inviting global tenders- will take 80% of the stake and 20% will go to the state government. The bidding ends October 31, 2022, and the Adani Group is one of 8 bidders.

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The State of the Union Address in 2026 cited the enormous impact on the world we know today over 2 centuries by this Nation. Jefferson breathed his last in 1826, between that and two persons in the chamber- including Air Force pilot who is 100 years old- between 1826 and 1926 when this pilot was born is a span of 100 years, and in this pilot's lifespan another 100 years. In this period, a couple of generations in our lifetimes, so much was achieved, said the president. So much of the address was about the potential ahead following the heroic efforts of the past. We are part of something larger than us, says the president, and this larger than us is the collective consciousness of the American Nation. "Two-hundred fifty years is a long time in the life of a nation. But in another sense, it's really a mere moment in the eye of history. Two of the gentlemen we met in the gallery this evening took their first breaths one century ago. One hundred years before that, on July 4th, 1826, the author of the Declaration of Independence, brilliant Thomas Jefferson, drew his last breath. Just a single long human life span separates the giants who declared and won our independence from the heroes who stand among us tonight. Everything our nation has done, everything we have achieved, has been the work of those few great lifetimes. In those brief chapters, Americans built this nation from 13 humble colonies into the pinnacle of human civilization and human freedom. The strongest, wealthiest, most powerful, most successful nation in all of history. Americans ventured out across the daunting and dangerous continent. We carved pass through an unforgiving wilderness, settled a boundless frontier, and tamed the beautiful but very, very dangerous wild west. From empty marshes and wide-open plains, we raised up the world's greatest cities. Together we mastered the world's mightiest industries, shattered history's monstrous tyrannies. And we liberated millions from the chains of fascism, communism, oppression and terror." Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, FDR and JFK, through their efforts and the efforts of scientists and industrial pioneers, and of the People of the United States, of educators and scientific endeavors, so much was achieved, and so much lies ahead. ...

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Le Monde publishes the speech JD Vance gave at the Munich Security Conference with it says added context and explanation. It is useful because it is easy to make hasty judgements in one direction or another. The focus here is on immigration to EU and to the US, a sore point. Vance does not mention a bigger sore point - the lack of recognition worldwide to the 490,000 American lives lost in the illegal flow of fentanyl into the US without needed action from CMC Canada, Mexico and China. And business as usual carried on by these countries and the European Union, and a failure to act by the US.  JD Vance said- "And of all the pressings—challenges that the nations represented here face, I believe there is nothing more urgent than mass migration. Today, almost one in five people living in this country moved here from abroad. That is, of course, an all-time high. It’s a similar number, by the way, in the United States—also an all-time high. The number of immigrants who entered the EU from non-EU countries doubled between 2021 and 2022 alone. And, of course, it’s gotten much higher since.And we know the situation, it didn’t materialize in a vacuum. It’s the result of a series of conscious decisions made by politicians all over the continent, and others across the world, over the span of a decade." Fact Check- About 14 million of Germany's 84.5 million people are foreign nationals according to Destatis. This is 16.6% of Germany's population. Vance rounds it off to 20% not 17%. In the US there are 47.8 million people who are foreign born or 14.3% of the population in 2023. It increased by 1.6 million from 2022 to 2023, much of it coming from Venezuela and Central American failed states from left parties mismanaging the economy for hyperinflation and from gang violence. In 2022 EU member states welcomed 1.8 million Ukrainian nationals that was only 100,000 in 2021, which is two thirds of the increase. The reason for Vance's doubling. A similar situation happened in the US with Venezuela as a failed state with hyper inflation into 1000 percent inflation leading to migration to other Latin American countries and into the US during the Biden administration. Some of this happened because sanctions made things worse, mismanagement of the economy. A similar migration happened from Syria into the EU member states as a result of the civil war.     ...

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In May 2023 Germany's Scholz overruled Habeck to let sale of 24.9% of Hamburg port to COSCO go through. Here is how over 2000-2016 China build its world class network of containerized shipping ports while the second Bush added the war in Afghanistan to the wars in Iraq started by Reagan/Bush. Without defense costs China built this world ports network. Piraeus in Greece, south of Athens, a port concession acquired in 2004 Antwerp in Belgium (Austrian Netherlands), a minority stake in a container port acquired in 2008. In 2013 with sale of Terminal Link ports in a Cosco 49% stake deal by CMA of France CMA holding 51%, China has stakes in Zeerbrugge and Antwerp, Busan South Korea, and Le Havre, Montoir and Fos in France, Xiamen in China, Miami and Houston in US. Rotterdam, Netherlands- Cosco acquired in 2016 a 35% stake in Euromax Terminal in Rotterdam from Hong Kong's Hutchison's Holdings for $125 million. Valencia and Bilbao majority  51% stake for $270 million, when JP Morgan paid as much as $950 million to ACS of Spain for these ports after the 2009 crisis led to Spanish divestments. Today measured in TEU shipping containers China sends goods to Europe 10 times what it takes in through Spanish ports. ...

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As to financing of $6000 child tax credit costing about $100 billion a year as estimated by Office for Responsible Budget some of it would come from the $360 billion in tax savings over 10 years by Medicare negotiation of prices with Pharma, other would come from taxing corporations and high incomes at rates that are similar to what firemen and teachers pay of 20-25%. In his speech at North Carolina Aug 15, 2024 at Wake Tech in Raleigh, president Biden said- "You know how many billionaires there are in America?  There’s now a thousand billionaires.  You know what their average tax they pay — federal tax?  8.2 percent.  Anybody want to trade with a billionaire — their tax rate?  (Laughter.)  Well, guess what?  If they just paid 25 percent — it’s not the highest bracket by a longshot — 25 percent — do you know what that would do?  That would raise $40- — $400 billion over the next 10 years.  Imagine what we could do with that.  We could fundamentally sh- — slash the federal deficit.  We could make sure there’s home care.  We could do so many things — consequential — including finally making sure that we take care of Ukraine from that butcher Putin.  (Applause.) ...

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The 7 Priorities listed in India's Budget for April 2023 to March 2024 provide a roadmap for the next 25 years to 2047 when India marks 100 years as an independent nation. These are-Inclusive Development Reaching the last mile, Infrastructure and investment, Unleashing the potential Green growth, Youth power, Financial sector

Reaching the last mile- Gandhi's idea- "Ask yourself if the step you contemplate is of any use to him or her (the poorest and weakest man or woman you have seen), will he or she gain anything by it? Will it restore to him (or her) control of their life and destiny."

A fund will be setup for Agri-startups. A National Digital Library will be set up for children and adolescents and States will be encouraged to setup physical libraries at panchayat and ward levels.

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What we bring is scale, says Teskey, co-founder of Brookfield Asset Management, which has set a target of $25 billion for 2 private funds for climate action. $10 billion has been raised and it continues fundraising. $2 billion from the UAE for energy transition fund and $1 billion for emerging markets transition. Additional fund raising will take place for emerging markets fund. Across all its funds Brookfield says it has raised $100 billion for investment in renewable power and energy transition projects. The demand for renewable power comes from cities and companies looking for cleaner ways of powering everything from data centers to manufacturing. It also comes from regulations on climate and from generous incentives offered by governments. The demand for renewable power from corporates, says Connor Teskey of Brookfield, is simply overwhelming. Teskey and Mark Carney, the former head of the central banks of UK and Canada and the point man on climate for the UN, are co-founders.   Total global energy transition investment was $1.8 trillion in 2023, a 17% increase from 2022, and yet this is nowhere near the needed investment of $4.8 trillion for climate goals needed annually for 2024 to 2030. Lyrarc.com will track these investments in its Climate Change Action part of the site. Brookfield is looking at cutting emissions in what is a broader strategy. whih means it will invest in fossil fuel projects where it can significantly cut emissions. This includes cement and steel makers.    ...