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Mexico’s Next Chapter

New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Pena Nieto, the new president of Mexico, says that this is a new generation and a different PRI party from the one in the past. His focus is to learn from efforts made by countries such as China, Brazil and India in modernization and reducing poverty, so that Mexico can fulfill its potential. His goal will be to avoid ideological positions and patronage, and achieve measurable progress against poverty in Mexico. He cites the Mexico's Office of National Statistics figures showing Mexico's growth rate at 1.7% for 2000-2010, and the lack of reforms in the energy sector, labor markets, education and social security.
Daily News Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Who is Nandalal Weerasinghe? This report in The Daily News gives some idea about the man chosen to help Sri Lanka negotiate a deal with the IMF.  Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe was an alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund before being appointed deputy governor of the Ceylon Central Bank in 2012. Before this he managed several macroeconomic departments at the central bank and was assistant governor of the central bank from 2007 to 2009, He has spent the large part of his career in economic positions at the Central Bank of Ceylon after getting his PhD in economics from the Australian National University. Weerasinghe is the leading expert in macroeconomics from Sri Lanka who has IMF experience. He says "things will get worse before they get better." He retired early from the central bank with a change in government in 2019. He was reappointed as Sri Lanka faced a debt crisis in March 2022 following the two year long pandemic, and the Ukraine war in 2022 that was bad for emerging market economies. Weerasinghe says about the crisis facing Sri Lanka- Recent decisons followed Modern Monetary Theory. This has dire consequences. In recent times the savings brought about by the low tax and interest rate regime passed savings on to the corporate sector and took away spending power from savers and pensioners. Surging inflation made things even worse for the lower income middle class and older parts of society. Years of accumulated debt have brought Ceylon to this point. In Ceylon one is seeing the effects of savings being passed on to the corporate sector in an economy dependent on tourism and remittances from overseas workers, both hit by the two year long pandemic. This is part of  a trend that has hurt emerging market economies from Argentina and Pakistan which also turned to the IMF to Turkey.  In other countries in the European Union savings also passed on to the corporate sector with low tax and low interest rate regime. With high inflation resulting in the cost of living crisis seen today in France and Germany. This type of policy that Weerasinghe calls 'Modern Monetary Theory' is not healthy for the European Union and the US, as these policies led to the neglect of much needed and vital investments in infrastructure, health and education. Only now are these effects being corrected by new administrations of Biden in the US and Scholz in Germany, with Biden's 2 trillion plan for workers and families, and a similar plan from chancellor Scholz. With this come needed investments to tackle climate change, all of which was neglected before. India has taken a different approach. By following good governance, managing vaccination effectively during the pandemic, social emphasis for food, water, electricity, cooking gas, medicine for the vast population of 1.2 billion, and a Master plan for building Made in India manufacturing,  India has avoided such crises and maintained strong economic growth. In this sense it is a model for South Asian, South East Asian, African, and Latin American emerging market economies that face a difficult situation today. Good governance is critical.   ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The murder of 43 students in Mexico becomes a major issue affecting the credibility of the Mexican state, the PRI, and Mexico's status as a rule of law country. A renewed focus on drug gangs in Mexican life and the infiltration of all levels of municipal government and police.
Economist Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The PRI party defeated the ruling PAN (conservative nNational Action Party) of Presidetn Calderon in midterm elections. PRI won five of six governorships and won 237 seats to the PAN's 143. Mexico is facing its worst economic crisis since 1995 with the devaluation of the peso and American loan assistance. THis time it is aflow-through of the American economic crisis, adrop in exports, a collapse of the auto sector, and drop in remittances from Mexican workers in the USA as well as tourism. The GDP of Mexico dropped 5.9% in 1st qusrter 2009. Unemployment and underemployment have doubled leaving one in six Mexicans without ajob. Poverty also has risen in this situation. Meanwhile a stalemate in the legislature has led to stagnation in terms of addressing critical areas of education, investing in the petroleum sector. And monopolies and oligopolies in a range of industries from tecommunications to cement trim GDP growth by 1% according to Guillermo Ortiz, central bank governor. Oil revenues are dropping, and proven reserves now are equal only to 13 years of current output. And public spending on infrastructure is declining. Disillusionment with the political system is growing, so much so that 5.4% of the ballots were spoiled in response to a campaign by political activists fed up with corruption and paralysis in the political system....
The Guardian Original article ›
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
A large blackout leaves Venezuela's capital Caracas and parts of the country in complete darkness. The blackout was the result of problems at the El Guri hydroelectric dam in eastern Venezuela. Venezuela's power grid has deteriorated rapidly from lack of investment, corruption leading to siphoning off of funds for investment in new turbines and technology, and mismanagement with the power company run by people with little experience in power generation. Initially Electricidad de Caracas was  bought by AES Corporation in the U.S. in 2000, then nationalized by president Hugo Chavez in 2007. The lack of investment is also a result of policies that subsidize power making it practically free, just as in the case of gasoline. 70% of Venezuela's electricity comes from El Guri hydroelectric dam. Hyper inflation estimated at an astounding 1 million percent is ruining Venezuela's economy leading to 3 million refugees into neighboring Colombia and other countries. ...
The Hindu Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The redevelopment of the classic Egmore railway station in Chennai at a cost of 734 crores is set to take off. It is a much needed renovation for Chennai and will take 36 months and bring it to international standards under PM Gati Shakti Master Plan for Inter Modal Connectivity. Egmore station handles 1.2 million people daily and is one of the oldest rail stations in India, and one that connects the south with Sri Lanka. Hyderabad based DEC is beginning the initial survey and plans to make this a showcase for other rail stations in India in the drive to modernization.

The Guardian Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Countries in South Asia such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan, as well as other countries in Africa and Asia, Latin America face debt repayment problems. These countries need debt restructuring and restructuring of payments by the International Monetary Fund in the current environment of surging inflation, depreciating currencies, and need to first support essential food imports and essential supplies including medical supplies. This report in The Guardian says IMF's Kistalina Georgieva is sensitive to the needs of these countries as they face surging inflation. Georgieva talks about the need for central banks to raise interest rates till other solutions are found.

NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Most American states fare worse than China in life expectancy and a third of American states including even Michigan fare worse than Sri Lanka in life expectancy. This series by Nicholas Kristof of the NYT looks at the interwoven problems from reading comprehension for 4th graders to a broken health system and large disparities of income never before experienced in this way through loss of manufacturing that are devastating America. Among retired people over half have no savings at all and about 90% of retired people are income insecure, something never before seen in the two hundred years of American history. 

BusinessWeek Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
HDFC Bank CEO, Aditya Puri, has succeeded with conservative practices in lending. It is now India's second biggest lender by market value, after the government owned State Bank of India. HDFC's lending to consumers has doubled since 2008 under Puri. He believes in prudent lending and keeps an autographed copy of Michael Lewis's The Big Short in his office. This has enabled Puri to avoid the losses experienced by other banks such ICICI, and with India's growing economy HDFC has profit increases of over 30% for the last decade. HDFC is adding 2 million customers a year, says Puri. The bad loan ratio is estimated to be 0.2% in the third quarter of 2011, one tenth of that at State Bank of India. India's largest mortgage lender, Housing Development Finance Corporation, is the largest shareholder with 23%. Puri says he will focus on growth in India, and will continue to avoid taking the kind of risks that would make depositor's lose sleep at night.
The Hindu Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Showing how short lived and misdirected were the efforts to use election wins to make the presidency all powerful under Gotabaya Rajapaksa, prime minister Wickremasinghe proposed an amendment to restore the powers of parliament in a parliamentary democracy. Sri Lanka stumbled badly into economic mismanagement with debt pileup and no action till it was too late without the checks and balances inherent in a parliamentary democracy. Prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned and with protests calling for the president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign, Mr. Wickremasinghe a four time former prime minister was brought back to lead the country out of the crisis. Mr. Wickremasinghe returned with an agreement with the president to restore the powers of parliament which were established since the independence of the country in 1948. Mr. Wickremasinghe has support of the western lending agencies and governments in US and Europe as he and an independent central bank governor Nandalal Weerasinghe with many years of experience working with the IMF seek a way out of the economic crisis. A level of transparency that was present in the early years after independence is being restored as the public suffers from energy shortages and 40% inflation. The foreign exchange reserves of Ceylon (Sri Lanka) were exhausted to the point that the country lacked the funds to let oil tankers in Colombo harbor unload oil and be paid for oil supplies. As a lack of oversight is being corrected Ceylonese are beginning to realize the costs of a unneeded war, wild swings in sentiment for and against parties, deconstructing parliamentary democracy and its checks and balances, corruption and economic mismanagement. ...
The Hindu Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman meets IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva to discuss impact of the geopolitical situation on world growth especially oil prices. Sitharaman said India was pursuing a policy of strong federal spending with capital expenditures increasing by 35% for fiscal 2022-23 to continue a public investment led recovery, raising capital expenditures from 5.5 lakh crore rupees to 7.5 lakh crore rupees. Indian GDP growth is now expected at 8-8.5%, the highest of large economies. Sitharaman also met with Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on the sidelines of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting and discussed the current global situation.

Wall Street Journal Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...
The Indian Express Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
PM Modi inaugurated the first global Buddhist summit organized by India's Culture Ministry.

At a time of climate change and other problems-

"This hope, this faith is the greatest strength of this earth. When this hope gets united, the Buddha Dhamma will become the world's belief, and Buddha's realization will become the belief of humanity."

"The path of the Buddha is the path of the future and the path of sustainability."

India where Buddha lived in places such as Sarnath, Buddha Gaya, Kushinagar , and Sri Lanka, Japan,  China, Vietnam, Korea and other countries in Asia are where the Ancient Path is getting a new life in the 21st century.

The Indian Express Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The view presented that Ambedkar's conversion to Buddhism was because of frustration that he had agreed to give up his demand for separate electorates for the lowest castes with the Poona Pact that he made with Gandhi in 1932. Gandhi saw separate electorates as one more effort at continuing divide and rule by the British to keep India divided and weak. This report in Indian Express says Ambedkar addressed a huge gathering of Mahars in Bombay in 1936 and advocated conversion to Buddhism. How much this was done to practice Buddhism is not clear. The Four Noble Truths are described as being dismissed from being part of Buddhism. Yet Buddhism as practiced in Sri Lanka, Japan and other countries consider it to be central to grasping the idea of Buddhism.

Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Enrique Pena Nieto of the PRI party wins the presidential election in Mexico with 38% of the vote. Lopez Manuel Obrador came second with 31% of the vote, and the candidate of the ruling PAN party, Ms. Vazquez Mota came in third with 26% of the vote. Voters were eager for change afer 12 years of rule by the PAN party under Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderon. Mexico averaged growth of 2% during these years, though growth has increased since the financial crisis. But the benefits of globalization, foreign investment, and trade reached the better educated and skilled workers leaving many behind. This period included negative growth during the 2008 financial crisis. .
BBC News Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
This BBC report looks at how a 1156 bed hospital, the Sri Aurobindo Institute of Medical Sciences, in Indore, India is tackling the coronavirus pandemic. Indore has emerged as a hotspot for coronavirus in India. This hospital is treating 144 coronavirus patients with 100 doctors and over 100 nursing staff working in 3 shifts. The hospital has set aside 525 beds in three isolation wards over two floors. A team of doctors looks after the patients- chest specialists, anaesthetists, microbiologists, and dermatologists.

Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
After repeated efforts to open up Mexico's oil industry in the last decade by the PAN party and stalling by the PRI opposition, Mexico finally makes the sorely needed changes to its constitution which will allow foreign oil companies to compete with Pemex. In Dec. 2013 the PRI Nieto government and the PAN join together for the two thirds majority in Congress to change 3 key articles in Mexico's constitution- 25, 27, 28. These articles are vestiges from an earlier era of nationalistic oil laws following the nationalization of the oil industry by President Cardenas in 1938. Brazil under president Cardoso opened up its oil industry by passing consitutional amendments in 1997, allowing foreign oil comapnies to compete with Petrobras. Argentina is in the process of attracting western oil companies to develop its shale oil reserves. Mexico faces the prospect of becoming a oil importer by 2020 if oil production remains stagnant at current levels of 2.5 million barrels a day, creating a new urgency for action. Pemex officials say Pemex can only come up with $25 billion a year of the $60 billion needed to develop Mexico's deep water reserves and shale oil and gas reserves. Under new legislation Mexico will allow profit-sharing contracts, production-sharing contracts, and licenses where foreign oil companies would pay royalties and taxes to the government. A major change supported by the PAN party is setting up a sovereign oil fund modeled on the Norwegian Oil Fund to send part of the oil income into long-term savings and pensions. A trust run by Mexico's autonomous central bank will manage the fund, according to a final draft. The changes are important for the Mexcian economy to increase the growth rate, and coupled with other changes for competitiveness and anti-monopoly legislation in the domestic economy. Additional changes coming from the Pacto de Mexico to the education system and other areas, form a major bipartisan effort for the first time in Mexico's recent history to improve Mexico's competitiveness in the global economy....
BBC News Original article ›
DW.COM Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Key recommendations of a parliamentary inquiry in France into the Paris terrorist attacks are- the creation of a new intelligence agency, pulling together three elite forces GIGN, Raid, and BRI, more security measures for airports, and improvements to the judicial and prison system where potential terrorists are further radicalized. The extensive investigation concluded that France was not prepared for the attacks.

The Hindu Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Pakistan issues Islamic bond at an interest rate of 7.95%, the highest it has paid on such a bond, for $ 1 billion loan. Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have dropped below $17 billion. A Saudi loan of $3 billion has proved insufficient to build up reserves ahead of international payments coming due. Neighboring Sri Lanka also faces international payments difficulties and is receiving assistance from India. 

The situation in South Asia remains a strange one to someone from outside South Asia with trade and commerce between India and Pakistan missing. This comes as the global supply chain is being renewed along new lines and manufacturing is taking a new role under Made in India and Atman Nirbhar Bharat. Better trade and commerce and financial relations would improve the ease of living for people in all parts of South Asia, giving trade and commerce a chance to define relations and usher a new era of peaceful cooperation.

New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Chnages to Mexico's labor laws passed in Congress and to be signed by president Calderon include companies having to pay only one year of back wages to laidoff workers for lawsuits on unfair dismissals. The law also formalized part-time work and temproary training contracts. The effort is likely to foster greater formalization of the workforce and push fewer workers into the underground economy. About 29% of Mexican workers are in the underground economy, where worker protections and legal benefits are lacking. Also made part of the law an yearly audit of union finances and election by secret ballot for unions. Mexico's large public sectors form a core base for support of the newly elected PRI government.

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