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Editorial Board of the Washington Post says the issue in the Ukraine war remains, and it says over again, remains the Russian aggression and invasion now in its fourth year. If Russia wants to go on fighting says the Editorial Board of the Washington Post in the nation's capital, so will the Ukrainians, there is nothing wrong in talks, as long as American negotiators do not lose sight of the facts of who started this war. It calls the American effort under DJT unconventional and says now on the second time Zelensky has astutely remained patient and worked on offering new counter proposals at the US mission in Geneva.

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The vote in Ohio in midwestern US for the Republican seat vacated by Rob Portman brings together voters concerned about crime, the Southern border and taxes. One of the candidates Mr. Vance, says problems closer to home are more important than Ukraine. This WSJ report looks at thinking in Ohio. About 88% of Republican have a negative opinion on Mr. Putin and 95% of Democrats. When it comes to helping Ukraine defend itself 35% of Democrats  and 62% of Republicans believe the US is not doing enough to help Ukraine defend itself.

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With Russia supplying 10% of the world's oil supplies and about 40% of Europe's natural gas supplies US sanctions on Russia's energy economy would only end up driving inflation higher and hurting the US and Europe. This leaves only a limited role for sanctions acting as a deterrent in the Ukraine crisis giving Russia more room to act in Ukraine.  

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DJT calls Macron and Starmer "nice guys," but guys who did nothing to end the Ukraine war. He says the effort for a minerals deal with Ukraine was made in the context of Europe making loans to Ukraine and the US having given outright aid and the need for the US to be treated same as the Europeans. 

CDU's candidate for Chancellor in next week's German election says Germany should consider taking a stake in the British and French nuclear arsenal, now that NATO Article 5 may not be honored by the US under DJT. Offers were made by the French for this to happen many years back.

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Ukraine's electricity grid makes it though a tough winter with frequent Russian missile attacks that led to power cutbacks throughout Ukraine. Kviv residents had only 4 hours of electricity and heat, water were also cut off for hours as the winter progressed. With better more advanced defense systems the attacks are fewer now, and the power grid is being repaired. Large transformers and other spare parts are being sent to Ukraine for the repairs. Ukraine is now able to resume exports of electricity in April 2023 showing that the worst of the electricity grid crisis is over.

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DW.com talks to Ben Hodges, the former commanding general US Army Europe, about the document leaks from the Department of Defense and the situation in the war in Ukraine. About the leaks Hodges says the Russians already knew this. He says this is the calm before the storm as Ukraine prepares its own offensive in the Donbas and in Crimea. 

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Drone attacks destroying 30% of energy grid in Ukraine and the US effort to send anti-drone defense systems to Ukraine that are months behind.

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The Russian position for a ceasefire in Ukraine and peace talks is set forth by president Putin. "Our principled position is that state of Ukraine must be neutral, non aligned and free of nuclear weapons." Putin wants Ukraine to give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian speaking regions in the east of Ukraine. Capitals of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and some of the territory is controlled by Ukraine today. It means that Russia could accept a ceasefire under the present lines of control. It also means Ukraine would not be part of NATO, though it could be part of the European Union, as a peace settlement. All western sanctions on Russia would have to be lifted. Throughout the decade of this war Russia has maintained close connections to the Russian speaking eastern part of Ukraine with historically close ties to Russia and as Ukraine public opinion shifted to the EU Russia began its efforts to bring these regions under its control even when German-Russian relations were better during Merkel years. Russia has the support of China and Brazil in its position. At some point if a settlement is reached one possibility is that the line of actual control or LAC would be put in place. It happened in the Korean War, when the demilitarized zone was setup and in other conflicts on the Indian border with China and Pakistan, in Cyprus between Greece and Turkey. For it to happen Russia will have to dispel fears in the EU and the US that Russia will continue the conflict at some later stage till all its objectives are achieved. This requires removing the perception that Putin is set on achieving all his objectives to reopen the war at some later stage. Mr. Putin hinted at this by saying "today we are making a concrete real peace proposal," and adding that Russia was not ''talking about freezing the conflict, but its final resolution." In this situation it is the western doubt about Putin's intentions that is another barrier to a settlement on European security, with continued destruction in Ukraine when the war has entered a stalemate where both sides have exhausted their resources and have little to gain by prolonging this conflict. ...

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Dropping wheat and corn prices will reduce the effect on increase in inflation for food prices. A recently signed agreement for UN and Turkey to supervise exports of Ukrainian grain to world markets is showing up in declining futures prices for corn and wheat that will show up in lower food prices. A large harvest for wheat and other foodgrains in Russia and Ukraine is also having an impact. Slower economic growth in China from frequent lockdowns and the ailing property sector, could bring oil prices down from the highs. The shift to renewable energy taking on a huge impetus from recently passed legislation in the US Congress for $369 billion investment and similar moves in Europe with a 15% required reduction under new EU rules could have the same effect of pushing down fossil fuel prices from their highs. This suggests Fed chairman Powell's sense that the economy would improve in the second half is consistent with international developments. The war in Ukraine could also have a possibility of coming to a close in coming months with Russian gains in the east and Ukraine recovering lost land around the Black Sea in the south. Decades of fighting in Ukraine may have obscured the fact that the eastern parts of Ukraine voted in pro Russian governments in the past and the western parts of Ukraine have voted in pro EU governments. The war could end with a settlement around these new boundaries. This would also enhance president Biden's foreign and domestic policy achievements and help the US focus on climate change actions, building new supply chains, rebuilding its manufacturing, its leadership in science and technology, its alliances with EU, and with Japan and India in the Indo-Pacific. ...

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The US under president DJT puts out a new National Security Strategy in a document which states it clearly. The days of the Middle East given importance are thankfully over it says. The focus is on the First Islands, from Taiwan, Philippines to Japan for strengthening defense in relation to China. The Monroe Doctrine is now part of US foreign policy with a DJT addition- "that the American people- not foreign nations or globalist institutions- will always control our own destiny in our hemisphere."  It also means the US has a new policy towards Russia and for NATO.  The DJT administration priority, it states, is “ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.” The new strategy is that Europe needs to “take primary responsibility for its own defense.” The Monroe Doctrine and the disassociation with NATO expansion are linked. How so? Russia's foreign policy is for winning recognition as a Northern European Power with its own version of the Monroe Doctrine, being able to control its destiny in its sphere of influence. The way the Monroe Doctrine was implemented in 1823 was by a tacit recognition gained from Britain that it would support the US in its idea of no European colonial powers (France, Spain other ) being allowed to interfere in Latin America, in the western hemisphere. In 2025 the way the Monroe Doctrine is implemented with the DJT Corollary is that the US is tacitly gaining support from Russia/China for implementing the Monroe Doctrine so that no foreign powers will interfere in US sphere influence in the western hemisphere.  Where does this leave Europe and Ukraine? European Union and NATO expansion has now gone too far and NATO which was primarily for Cold War struggle between Communism and US/UK style democracies is over, but NATO has not been disbanded, or a new alliance setup with new goals. Instead as it lingers on it has created new problems such as NATO expansion to the borders of Russia, creating security risks for Russia. This has led to the war in Ukraine and the Republican administration under DJT seeks to defuse tensions and the Ukraine war by excluding NATO expansion, removing the US from European security by delegating that back to Europe (Germany and France, Italy, UK) and by acting as a moderating influence between Russia and Germany, France, that see Russia as a threat after it's attack on Ukraine. US also upholds the policy and principle of no nation invading another country, as Russia did with Ukraine, and in anticipation of the China threat to Taiwan. This part gets nuanced but the overall policy is coherent and Russia accepts this, China is gradually coming to the idea that it has to accept this situation with Taiwan to preserve its economic advances and its exports to the US and EU.  In practice once the interference of China or Russia is removed and European powers in addition, the US has freedom of action in the Western hemisphere and Latin America to prevent crises such as with drug trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela, and unstable regimes sending people north to the US across the Mexican border as from Central America and Venezuela.   ...

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Efforts to develop the next generation Ukrainian aircraft industry from its current moribund state by discarding the old Soviet model. Attracting new foreign investment alongside state investment, modern management, preserving intellectual property rights, and looking for contracts across Europe, is critical for future development. Ukraine has a history of technology development and design in the aircraft industry, which makes this industry a good candidate for export revenues. The first mass produced helicopter was made in the U.S. and used a Sikorsky design in 1936. Igor Sikorsky is from Kiev, Ukraine, and immigrated to the U.S. in 1919, as Soviets took control of Russia. His son was a vice president of United Technologies Sikorsky helicopter division. (Wikipedia). MacFarquhar describes this industry in its new form at its early beginnings- a decade from now the industry under good management could provide large export revenues. Many of the old Soviet auto plants also developed in this direction with investments and technology from companies such as Renault, GM and others, helping revive the industry. There are no spheres of influence in modern industry- Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the U.S., all benefit from openness to new technology and investment, which improve the economy and living standards. ...

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Yanukovych, the president of Ukraine, is from the industrial eastern part of Ukraine centring on Donetsk. He is intensely disliked by the protesters in Ukraine and unpopular with the western part of the country which favors joining the European Union. Polls show 45% of the people support joining the EU, and only 14% joining Russia in a economic union. Yanukovych failed to bring the country together. The EU had called for the release of a former prime minister Ms. Tymoshenko in prison for the last 2 years, and Yanukovych's failure to do this worsened relations with Germany. The U.S. sees Yatsenuyk 39, a economist who served in the Tymoshenko administration as economy minister, as a person with the credibility in Ukraine and the experience to be part of a transition government. Figures who are popular with protesters but have no connections with previous governments include Vitali Klitschko, 42, a boxing champion, who has his own party Udar, meaning punch. Tymoshenko, was popular during the Orange Revolution in 2004, but her two terms as prime minister came under criticism for mismanagement. Parliament selected the prime minister under the 2004 constitution, and the protests focussed on consolidation of power under the president, including the appointment of the prime minister. As a first step parliament took on powers to appoint the prime minister on Feb. 21, 2014, freed Tymoshenko from prison, and set a date for elections in May 2014. Yanukovych fled Kiev and left for the eastern part of the country as parliament began the transition to a new government. ...

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WSJ's Fidler describes the views of Victor Ruhe, a former German defense minister, on the Ukraine crisis and the EU's response. The EU's position for relations with Ukraine comes under criticism for being technocratic as in earler trade and aid negotiations, and not addressing the problems which Ukraine faces. This requires closer cooperation from the EU, and some costs the EU has been unwilling to assume. Ruhe says the best response for the EU is to turn Ukraine into a European success story. This means taking on the effort to gradually transform the corrupt and inefficient political and economic system, something the EU did over many years in the Balkans. EU leaders have signed an agreement with Ukraine's new government on political dialogue and security cooperation. Critical parts of the agreement for trade, law enforcement, anticorruption actions, and macroeconomics changes, will be signed after a new government is elected in May 2014 elections. The EU is in this for the long haul as political support will be needed for a new generation of politicians....

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One bright spot even as the war in Ukraine continues is the recovery in Ukraine food exports. Ukraine's Food ministry says the exports of foodgrains from Ukraine reached 6.9 million metric tons in September 2022 compared to 7.1 million metric tons in September 2021 before the war. This shows how vital are the shipping lanes and agreements to keep shipping safe on the Black Sea ports as they are a lifeline for Turkey, Egypt and many countries in Africa. It also takes out some of the pressure on food prices all over the world.

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With America's 11th aid package to Ukraine what are America's goals in Ukraine? "I want be clear about the aims of the United States in these efforts" says president Biden in this extremely important article on June 1 in the New York Times. "It is not the ouster of president Putin."  "It is not to inflict pain on Russia." "We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign Ukraine with the means to deter aggression and defend itself."

"We are sending a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so that it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table." As Mr. Zelensky has said "this war will only definitively end with diplomacy."

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A Turkey and UN supported agreement is reached in Istanbul, Turkey, between Russia and Ukraine that would enable export of 20 million tons of Ukraine grains at its ports. Turkey and UN would inspect the ships to ensure no weapons smuggling is taking place and Ukrainian vessels would take the grain carrying ships through safe channels in the Black Sea. This will also get Russian grain out through the Black Sea ports.

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The task of getting 20 million tons of foodgrains in Ukrainian silos out of Ukraine is being taken up by the European Union. Ms. Leyen of the EU has emphasized the importance of this mission for poor countries. About 50 countries depend on Ukraine and Russia for over 30% of imports of foodgrains says the WSJ. One way supported in this WSJ Editorial Board opinion is to use naval ships to escort ships carrying grain out of Black Sea ports. This requires Turkey's support and has to be done as a humanitarian move with ships from many countries. Rail would be an option yet Ukraine and the rest of Europe use different railway infrastructure. Steps need to be taken to do this quickly to overcome the rail issues and also use motor transport. The port of Odessa has been mined by Ukraine to prevent a Russian naval assault showing that there are obstacles along the way to be met by land or by sea. Starting now would be the best way to approach this. Both the Eu and the US should work together on this. The baby food crisis in the US was tackled by special flights from Germany. This shows that many options can be combined and problems tackled to get food grains out. What seems insurmountable can be tackled with action taken early, learning along the way. The Berlin Airlift did this in 1947 with another Soviet blockade. This would also lift spirits throughout the world. ...

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Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

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Russian attacks on Ukraine grain terminals like this one on two US owned grain terminals in the port of Mykolaiv, are an effort to degrade Ukraine's ability to export food. This is seen as affecting the world's ability to feed hundreds of millions of marginalized communities in Africa, Asia and Latin America and is abhorrent to people all over the world.

 

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Reports by David Sanger and other reporters from the NYT on the situation in Ukraine as seen from the US, Russian, European, and Ukrainian sides. Russian president Putin sees Ukraine as part of the Russian cultural and economic sphere with deep ties to Ukraine in its history. The western parts of Ukraine near Poland and near the capital Kiev see their future more in relation to other Eastern European countries that have moved closer to or joined the European Union such as Poland and the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. It is not clear even to advisors to the Russian government what Mr. Putin's intentions and plans are. Russia has not yet recognized the two breakaway republics in Eastern Ukraine based in Donestsk.  Some of the key points in Ukraine's recent history- one needs to know this because Ukraine has a difficult history in its relations with Poland/Lithuania and with Russia alternating over centuries, with neither relationship providing the kind of government that would have helped Ukraine's people. Formed only in 1991 the Republic of Ukraine has a long history since 1500 of being part of Poland and Lithuania, and later part of Russia, with some parts of Ukraine under the Austrian Hapsburgs till 1900. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union in the 1920's to the 1950's in one phase in which it suffered badly with collectivization of agriculture under Communist Soviet leadership and famines. In the second phase of Soviet rule after the 1950's Ukraine made a dramatic recovery as Krushchev assumed control with Leonid Brezhnev who was from Ukraine. After 1964 Brezhnev ran the the Soviet Union till 1984 and this was a good period for Ukraine. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1990 and Russian leader Yeltsin separated Ukraine and Belarus to go their own ways as separate countries from Russia. For 1990-2000 Ukraine did badly losing about 60% of its GDP, a situation also experienced by Russia with economic instability. Russia recovered under Putin, yet Ukraine has struggled since because of mismanagement under different governments and widespread entrenched corruption.  Governments alternated in the period 2000 to 2020 between ones friendly to Russia and friendly to Poland and European Union. This happened in 2004 and again with protests in 2014. The protests in 2014 in Kiev and Lviv led to a government that favored closer ties with EU and NATO. It is this pendulum swing that is Ukraine's and Eastern Europe's experience in the 20th century and it continues into the 21st. What Russia wants is for Ukraine to not be a place for NATO operations, even if it is not allied to Russia after Russian president Putin was disappointed with the Russian allied government's performance under Yanukovich in the 2000-2014 period with corruption and mismanagement. France in the 16th and to 18th century is described by Brendan Simms of Cambridge in his new book on Europe, as needing the external danger for unity, and unity to meet external danger. This could be true also for Russia as the danger posed by NATO helps bring unity to Russia. And this could be a way to unify Russia and provide it with the confidence that it seeks in its effort for parity with the European Union and the US, China in the 21st century.   ...

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By having ships stay close to the Black Sea coast of NATO countries Ukraine is reviving the grain corridor that lets it send grain exports. This is also possible today because of increased surveillance capabilities of Ukraine and the increasing influence of Ukraine in the Black Sea. The corridor is important now that RUssia has withdrawn from the grain agreement put together by the UN and Turkey through negotiations with Russia.

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A 900 mile long frontline from Kherson on the Black Sea north to Luhansk stretches Ukraine's forces along a long line in June 2023. A Ukraine effort to retake areas lost to Russia in eastern Ukraine and near Crimea as part of the counter offensive is only making slow progress because of land mines and lack of airpower. The successful Ukraine effort in 2022 to retake Kherson happened in an area which had two rivers and where Russia faced logistical issues of supplying its troops. In 2023 both sides have prepared for some time and it is very difficult for both.

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The story of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city only 25 miles to the border. Santora and Hicks give this report on life in the city which faces constant missile and other attacks with much of its power and other infrastructure destroyed, and schools operating deep inside subway stations. Nothing like this destruction has been seen in European cities since 1945. Europe had only the Balkan conflict limited to Yugoslavia 1991-1995 as the country split into several states, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Slovenia and the US settlement in 1995 following NATO bombing in Serbian Bosnia. The Ukraine conflict stretches back decades starting in 2014 with the Maidan protests in Kiev and fall of the pro-Russian Yakunovych government. After a brief war and Russia taking Crimea it ended with the Minsk Agreement in 2015. Russia had supported separatists in Donbas region. Russian is the language in Russia and Ukraine and both countries share a common historical heritage. It started again with Putin's complaints about NATO enlargement in 2021, followed by an attack on Ukraine in 2021 bringing Finland and Sweden into joining NATO, and US support to Ukraine's defense.  ...

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Opening up of the Bystre and Sulina canals to get Ukraine wheat from the port of Odessa on the Black Sea to Romanian ports and to the Danube. This is one more step in getting grain out of Ukraine. Ukraine taking over Snake Island on the Romanian coast south of Odessa in July was a positive step for creating a route for ships getting to Romania and the Danube. Yet this route only adds about 500,000 tons of grain taken out. About 8 million tons normally leave in June from Ukraine ports only 25% or 2 million made it out.

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German chancellor Scholz finally approves 14 Leopard tanks for Ukraine. Shown here in this report is a graph of all the in service and stored Leopard tanks in individual countries of Europe including Poland, Spain and Finland which are ready to supply these tanks to Ukraine. Scholz says that he has acted with international coordination with the US. Ukraine says it needs a lot more tanks to face an expected Russian offensive and to initiate its own operations in coming months in the south and east.