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US and Iran accept Pakistan's mediation of the war with a 2 week ceasefire and opening of Straits of Hormuz- April 7 2026. The mediation by prime minister Sharif of Pakistan gave both sides in the war a way to back down. Both sides agreed to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. As a partner of Pakistan, China may also have a role in setting up a settlement as China and Japan have the most to lose from the Straits of Hormuz being closed, oil prices rocketing up to $115 and higher, and even a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz Straits. Both China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits. Oil prices drop to the $100 level from $115 after the announcement of talks in Islamabad. This is not a long term settlement. After the two weeks US president meets president Xi of China in Beijing shortly afterwards on May 14-15. It is likely that preparations for that trip will involve China and Pakistan working together to get the US and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire. One outcome of this war is as Le Monde has noted- the unreliability of Hormuz supplies and shift to imports from US and Venezuela and other parts of the world for fossil fuels. And with this a renewed effort to reduce the fossil fuels needed by accelerating renewable energy supplies in Europe, India and China. More attention will also be focused on reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by all major powers. Removing US involvement in NATO may also turn out to be positive in some ways to bring Russia and US as nuclear powers to better working relationships, and reduce the nuclear arms race and weapons race. For Europe it means meeting needs of Ukraine and improving military capabilities. The overall result may be positive for all countries. The Middle East region will be seen as one in which no powers should get involved in and the Middle East will also find it has squandered its valuable oil dividend in five decades of wars and mismanagement and fall behind the rest of Asia and Europe, the US in economic progress and development. ...

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Italy which imported 40% of its gas supplies from Russia has shifted rapidly to Algeria as a source of its gas replacing its own supplies from Russia and even sending supplies north to Austria. Algeria, Africa and other gas producing countries Azerbaijan and Turkey are winners in the closing of the Nordstream pipelines to the EU from Russia. Algeria is making the largest contribution to EU gas supplies. Low Russian gas prices for a decade kept Algerian gas in the ground. Algeria is expected to send 100 billion cubic meters of gas to the European Union making up 65% of the 160 billion cubic meters the EU imported from Russia. Much of this gas is produced by the Italian gas company Eni and Sonatrach, Algeria's oil and gas company. Pipelines from Azerbaijan and Turkey deliver gas from that region to the EU. Azerbaijan plans to double its gas production.

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This editorial in the Economist looks at China's relationship with Russia. It says the Ukraine conflict and western sanctions have resulted in Russia moving closer to China. Yet the two countries have competing interests in central Asia, and different relations with India and Vietnam, in the Asian region. Russia is also wary of China copying designs of Sukhoi aircraft in sales to China of advanced military technology. The major oil and gas deal signed in 2014 provides Russia with a new outlet for oil and gas with the cooling of the relationship with Europe. Yet Russia has strong ties built with Germany over the entire post war period, and differences have emerged in U.S.- German relations. Germany's relationship with Russia- cooled by sanctions and German wariness over Russian intervention in Ukraine and Russian wariness over NATO close to its borders- spans 7 decades and is likely to remain strong in the long term. This comes from the shared sense of awareness of the terrible conflicts of an earlier period, just as it has for French-German relations, and from the strong efforts made by Germany to preserve the relationship and peace in Europe. Chinese president Xi's visit to Moscow on May 9, for celebrations of victory over Nazi Germany, will be followed by a visit May 10 by Chancellor Merkel of Germany. A factor in German-Russian relations is the close trade links, cultural exchanges, and history going back to the GDR where Chancellor Merkel is from, built up over many years, that are likely to set the long term future of relations. China's dominant partner relationship in the China- Russia relations does not bode well for the future of relations, compared to the equal partner relations with its European neighbor, Germany. In this different light Ukraine is a temporary pause, in German-Russian relations and peace in Europe, a situation which is in China's long term interest as it focusses on its economy and the next phase of development for a modernized economy. Especially as China continues to build on its own vital trade relations with Germany and the European Union, the latest example being Germany, other EU nations, and India, joining the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. ...

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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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At a videoconference between DJT and European leaders on Aug. 14, 2025, initiated by Germany's Merz , it was decided that no territory exchanges are to be discussed at DJT Putin meeting in Alaska. DJT and the Europeans will simply seek an immediate ceasefire followed by talks between Zelensky and Putin with DJT offering to be there to mediate differences. DJT says there will be strong sanctions on Russia in the event no ceasefire is reached. Legislation in Congress with 80 senators on board a clear majority of both parties is for putting a 500% tariff on countries such as China and India that import Russian oil. These imports exceed $100 billion each for China and India. DJT has placed a 50% duty on India if negotiations do not yield results on this issue. This is seen in Congress as fueling the continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine.

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This WSJ report traces the development of rail, trucking, container shipping and forklift use in Germany, Russia and the US. The World Bank Logistics Index shows Germany ranking first, the US 14th, China 26th, Russia 75th out of 160 countries.  Russia's military relies on a supply system that uses crates instead of container shipping, not much use of forklifts, and relies on rail and conscript labor. During the invasion of Ukraine in April Russian supply lines that did not control rail failed to supply forces leading to slow progress. Because of dense rail lines in the eastern Donbas region Russian supply lines have worked to sustain advances. About 750 miles of rail lines have also been repaired by a special force set up for this purpose.  In a larger sense the problem of logistics and supplying front lines remains. This report shows the contrast between the development of Russian logistics and American logistics described by military experts in the US. The Russian system evolved in the early years of the 20th century based on conscript or free and abundant labor compared to the US where labor was scarce and costly. Automation progressed rapidly with American business taking up use of forklifts and containers during the 1940's extending to its use in the military. During the Vietnam war Cam Ranh Bay US bases were converted to modern container and forklift use. Russia continued through the sixties till today with a different and less automated system of logistics and movement of goods.    The use of modern logistics in Russia is limited to the amount of freight that gets moved in Colombia and much less than France says this report in WSJ. Much of the industrial base in Russia is built around oil and gas exports and manufacturing with movement of supply chain parts has never taken the importance that it has in Germany or the US. This limits the capacity of the Russian military outside the rail lines located towns and cities in Donbas where it has recently made gains. ...

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The Russian economy will contract by 10% and the Ukraine economy by 20% in 2022, says the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The bank was setup to revive Eastern European economies after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2023 the Ukraine economy is expected to rebound by 23% with assistance from US and EU. The Russian economy faces long term challenges with lack of access to technology from EU and US and the loss of well educated workers leaving Russia, and is expected to face a long period of stagnation. The war has affected 60% of Ukraine's economic output and electricity consumption is down by 60%, with one third of Ukraine businesses closed, factories shutdown. Ukraine will be a much poorer country because a lot of stock has been destroyed, says Beata Javorcik, EBRD's chief economist. For Russia the drag on the economy will be present even if a peace agreement leads to lifting of sanctions says EBRD. Central Asian countries such as Uzbekistan and Armenia will also feel the effect of the slowdown with loss of remittance from workers in Russia. The faster shift to renewable energy and LNG in Germany, and a similar boost to renewable energy with COP26 Glasgow getting a boost in EU and the US, will result in loss of value of oil assets in Russia. With loss of technology access from US and EU Russian conversion away from a energy based economy will be slowed. All this is likely to lead to a difficult period for Russia. This means there are no gainers from this war, including China, which could see a further acceleration in US and EU restructuring of the supply chain away from China, leading to further slowing of growth. ...

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The effect of Russia's economic problems in 2015, including the drop in oil prices to below $50 a barrel, would cost Russia about $200 billion, according to Russia's finance minister Anton Siluanov. In addition to lower oil prices, Russia faces higher inflation from the decline in the ruble to 67 to the dollar on Jan. 28, 2015, western sanctions, capital flight, credit downgrade and reduced access to financing for Russian companies. Siluanov says $35 billion will be spent in 2015 for anti-crisis measures to stabilize the banking system, financing for companies with lack of access to financing in capital markets, and cushioning the impact of the crisis. Russia's economy is forecast to decline by 4% in 2015, by the Bank of Russia, with double digit inflation from a weaker ruble.

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Russians vote in 2021 parliamentary elections. With 30% of votes cast the United Russia party of Mr. Putin wins 45% of votes cast, followed by the Communist party of the Russian Federation with 22%, and the Liberal Democratic party getting 8%. Russia has mixed voting system with half the seats directly elected from party lists, and the other half assigned to individual candidates. United Russia had 334 seats out of total 450 seats in the outgoing parliament. Putin will need over 300 seats in the new parliament to get the two thirds majority to enact changes to the constitution. Putin needs this to extend his current term which ends in 2024.  Putin draws most of his support from the older part of the population that has seen the hardships imposed following the collapse of Communism around 1990. This led to collapse of the ruble currency, increase in poverty, an effort by oligarchs to capture state enterprises, and a chaotic period for law and order. Shockingly during that period even life spans of Russians declined as reported in the WSJ. Liberals who supported the shift to democracy had not anticipated all the ill effects of introducing capitalist free market systems in such a sudden and free fall way. Such sudden shifts to free markets are now better understood and seen as the wrong way, as western capital markets fail without inbuilt protections, safety net for workers and retired people, and are subject to serious distortions if no vigilant authority exists. This is in reality not a free market but a market captured by the few, in the interests of the few. Once this was clear retired people, pensioners, military, law enforcement, and liberals realizing what had happened shifted support to United Russia founded by Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin faces the typical situation faced by incumbents over long periods where there is a sense of the need for change. Yet the pandemic and other economic crises that could happen in the event of mismanaged economy are never really too distant for countries such as Russia, China, India that are developed but yet have not the strong industrial base of US, Germany, France. Such economic crises including the ruble currency and Russian energy companies were better managed under Putin than under the chaotic period following the collapse of communism and the introduction of so called "free markets" that were anything but. During the recentfree fall in oil prices Putin was able to manage a transition period with the help of president Trump who negotiated a price for oil with the Saudis to protect US shale oil workers and companies, as well as Russian workers and oil companies. As a result Russians particularly young people look for alternative places to vote for opposition parties such as Liberals, Communist party, and other parties. But the majority of Russians including those working for state energy and other state companies tend to stay with Putin's choices for state, regional and federal administration and for parliament. Nationalist spirit also provides additional support as Putin has restored Russia's status as one of the important nations in the world. Some missteps such as interference in US elections have led to a loss of some of this international influence, yet even president Biden understands the situation in Russia and is willing to work with Putin with new rules of conduct Under the Russian system about 70% of the laws are not made by parliament but are done by the government and the administration of the president and then go through parliament. In addition to parliamentary vote there are 6 governor races and three races for heads of regional republics. ...

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Russia's exports to the USA only 3% of total exports, 21% to China, 19% to India, and 16% to Brazil. But does this suggest the Russian economy is insulated It exports natural gas to Germany, its largest trading partner. Are oil exports from Russia to the US so insignificant that they constute only 3% of total exports? This needs to be verified. Russia built the $478 billion reserves based on oil exports. If prices drop this will affect future increases in these reserves and affect foreign investment in the Russian economy, investment it badly needs to modernize. Russia is less affected relative o other countries, but its stock markets dropped 20% after the global markets reacted in cascading effect in January 2008. There is some insulation but not really that much and the case is overstated. Russia is starting out with a smaller manufacturing economy. It badly needs to build this up and the effects of a global slowdown will mean reduced investment than would otherwise occur.

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Analysts say the price Russia agreed to for natural gas under the May 2014 agreement with China is about $350 close to the $380 price per 1000 cubic metres at which Russia sold natural gas to Europe for 2013. The deal involves building the pipelines on the Russian and Chinese sides and developing natural gas fields in Russian Siberia. The cost of the pipelines alone could be $70 billion, according to think tank RusEnergy, and the total deal worth about $400 billion. China National Petroleum website says Russia will begin supplying natural gas in 2018 with 38 billion cubic metres. By keeping the price "a commercial secret" in the words of Gazprom CEO Miller, Russia and China benefit from not having to renegotiate their contracts with other suppliers and buyers. Putin pointed out that the price has also been pegged to the future price of petroleum products and oil, which are expected to remain high.

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This WSJ report looks at the work of Alexei Miller as head of Gazprom which supplies Russian natural gas through the Nordstream pipeline to Europe. Mr. Miller is shown to have put too much reliance on the European market which is now shrinking with the European decision to cut dependence on Russian gas. compared to alternative markets in China Russia has invested too little in pipelines to other regions in Asia. He has also not invested in LNG which could be shipped to China and other countries leaving Russia too dependent on pipelines that run mostly to Europe such as Nordstream 1 and 2.  Russia was sending 160 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Europe and only 11 billion cubic metres to China in 2021. A major shift requires much new infrastructure. Miller also did not grasp how shale oil and gas would boom in the US. Mr. Miller started as a 39 year old economics PhD in 2001 when Putin made him head of Gazprom. Both had worked together in St Petersburg local government, and Miller was Deputy Energy Minister for 1 year, briefly head of a pipeline system to the Gulf of Finland. ...

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William Burns, a former Deputy Secretary of State, and a former ambassador to Russia 2005-2008, looks at the U.S. and European Union relationship with Russia following the expulsion of Russian spies in 2018. He says the U.S. and the European Union should take strong action, yet hopes this is a passing phase so that a healthier relationship can be built with Russia in the long run through diplomatic channels. Expressing views expressed by former president Obama and other experts, Burns says Russia lacks the alliances and broader support that the U.S. and European Union have, and is much smaller than the larger economies of the Western alliance. Under Putin a strong interventionist position has made Russia look better at home but may not be the best for Russia in the long run, says Burns.   Burns calls for stronger sanctions on the economic elite and business leaders under president Putin. Yet the sanctions have not deterred president Putin and a long run solution needs to be found, including issues such as Ukraine and issues that affect the Russian economy so that the change in relations since 2014 can be reversed. After the Berlin Wall collapsed hopes for integration of the Russian economy into the West were raised yet were not realized for Russia in the years following the Yeltsin government and the Russian economy suffered, first during that period and then during emerging market crises. Russian disillusionment with the West was followed by a more inward looking economy under Putin to help stabilize the Russian economy, accepting devaluation of the ruble to make the Russian economy more competitive in a period of low oil prices. Foreign investment collapsed following the Ukraine crisis but the Russian economy adapted to the shock from oil prices. This was followed by efforts to preserve these gains with an interventionist policy that made the Putin administration look better at home and win popular support with strong action in Crimea and Ukraine. This interventionist policy has played out too far with the meddling in U.S. and European elections creating a backlash that is now taking place. With the European Union, having a traditional policy of restraint and good relations with Russia, openly questioning Russian policy under Putin. Much of that period when Russia responded first to the collapse of the Berlin Wall with the collapse of the Russian economy, and in the following decade facing emerging market crises and collapse of foreign investment -which created a more inward looking Russia under Putin in his third term- is shown in Lyrarc.com. In some ways the Russian response in Ukraine, the effort to bolster popular support at home in elections, and the interventionist approach are linked to the efforts to find a Russian response to the economic crises Russia faced since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Seen in this way a shift to better relations is still possible as a broader perspective is gained.  ...

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Continued consolidation into state hands of the oil industry in Russia.

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About 600 US and European company brands are leaving Russia. This report in the WSJ shows how ordinary Russians are coping with jobs in limbo. Many of these companies are continuing to pay employees but jobs remain uncertain. This includes companies like Sweden's IKEA that are popular in Russia. As western sanctions make operating difficult companies future is uncertain. This is creating anti-Western sentiment particularly in the rural areas which use mostly Russian made products and which are Putin's main source of support. Even Russians who question the attacks on Ukraine are skeptical how the withdrawal of these companies helps find a solution for Ukraine. This is happening even as the errors made by 4 term German chancellor of increasing the dependence of Germany on Russian energy supplies from 36% during Putin's annexation of Crimea to 55% today are becoming abundantly clear.That makes an energy embargo on Russia difficult for Europe, with German business saying this would be "catastrophic" because it is unprepared even though this alone provides about $1 billion a day to Putin's Russia. Meanwhile EU and other western leaders call attention to India's drawing 1-2% of its energy supplies from Russia even though one month of Indian imports is equal to just one afternoon of European oil and gas imports from Russia. India has done more than Merkel's Germany to meet the need for humanitarian vaccine assistance for the poor countries of Asia and Africa, Middle East, and is now engaged in meeting the needs of the world for foodgrains after the fallout from an Ukraine crisis that is a result of emboldening of Russia from Merkel's policies.  ...

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A group of oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia stall progress on climate change goals at the conference in Belem, Brazil. Even deforestation goals are left out. A standoff between European nations and oil producing countries leads to lack of agreement on how to phase out fossil fuels. The US is not present.  

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Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...

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Full text of the Memorandum of Understanding  agreement reached between the US and Iran as presented by the NYT with NYT's comments on paragraphs. NYT takes a skeptical view of the Memorandum while at the same time opposing the war, not making exactly clear what it is standing for in a set of complex negotiations. Much of the media does not reflect the situation in the rest of the world especially in the poor countries, the fact that China, India, Russia, US, almost the entire Middle East, Africa and Latin America support denuclearization in the Middle East- the US simply taking on the burden of achieving this and having to take up a naval blockade for this purpose. As it affects China's vital interests and agreement was reached with China and Russia, it has the support of the EU and India, and the rest of the world, including the Arab world and Egypt, the elected government of Iran if not the military (the RGC). This is not mentioned in the Comments made by NYT. Pakistan was the mediator and it is clear that the countries that are bearing the brunt of this crisis are countries such as Egypt, Turkey, India and Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, the poorer countries and billions of people including also China's less developed regions, where oil prices and lack of supplies have hit the people hardest. In this sense there is a collective responsibility for ensuring it works for every major country in the world, that has never happened before, and will be the strongest reason for this agreement being the right step at the right time. For all of these countries the future of East Asia and of West Asia is at stake, of EU and the US, of North Africa and the Arab world, and these countries will push for a new direction for the entire West Asian region as well as its relations with East Asia. ...

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The severe impact of sanctions on availability of car parts in Russia is shown here in this Guardian report. Few industries are impacted by Russia's total isolation as the car industry says this report. Car sales in Russia have dropped by 84% according to the Association for European Business and car prices are up 50%. Import substitution is not working for the car industry say experts. The owner of a car repair firm in Moscow says speculation for car parts is rampant with parts cost up by 800% and original oil up 1000%. Reports show counterfeit or stolen parts flooding the market. The airline industry is also impacted by the severe shortage of aircraft parts. One Russian pilot says there are enough aircraft wheels and pads for one month maximum. A manager of Sukhoi Superjet says he gives the Russian airline industry one year if nothing changes. Safety concerns of pilots are being ignored says one pilot. Parts are being cannibalized from older planes for new ones to keep them running. With the nation's automobile and airline industries affected in this way the quality of living is affected in Russia only 3 months into this war. Having a large inflow of revenues from oil and gas for the 6-12 month period that it takes Europe to respond, and a large reserve fund of about $610 billion is not a real reflection of the strength of a country. In today's interconnected system of supply chain no degree of industrial strength would allow a nation to wage war through invasion with impunity without finding itself in severe difficulties for the quality of life in the country as the world community responds. The response is to prevent the wrong lessons being drawn by one nation using full scale war to occupy another nation and getting away with it.    ...

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Russian president Putin tells Russians at an annual news conference on Dec. 17, 2014, that the West wanted to deprive Russia of its natural resources. He says steps taken by the central bank and his administration were proper, including avoiding capital controls, except that the decision to raise interest rates to 17% in mid-Dec. should have been taken earlier. He deflects criticism that the sanctions and the decline in the ruble were "payment for Crimea" (Russia's takeover of the Crimea) by saying it was "payment for our independence, our sovereignty." Putin expressed unease with the expansion of NATO to Russia's borders. He told Russians to expect that the crisis will last for 2 years and during this time the Russian economy will adapt, in particular shifting its heavy dependence on oil exports. During the 10 years of the Putin administration since 2004, Russia has not made a vigorous effort to diversify away from oil dependence. Progress was made primarily in better integrating the economy with the European Union, entry into WTO, building a sovereign reserves fund, until the crisis in Ukraine. The Putin years may be seen in the future as the transition years towards a more diversified economy, and may lead to a shift away from the kind of management of economic and foreign policy by a single leader that may have led to the disruption in relations with Germany, a critical economic partner for Russia. Chancellor Merkel said Germany would continue to support sanctions as long as Russia opposed the right of self- determination of people in Europe and European values. Germany continues even now to maintain dialogue with Russia through Social Democrat Foreign Minister Steinmeier, which is why Putin continues to refer to it as "our partners" and cites the differences with our partners, very different from the Cold War period when no such close relations with Germany existed. ...

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Efforts to control out of control oil production by the Saudis and Russia as oil prices fall to $22. President Trump says he is considering tariffs in this situation to raise the oil price. He is also talking to president Putin and Prince Salman in an effort to moderate the decline in oil prices. The U.S. seeks to protect its oil industry which needs a higher price to operate profitably. One way for the U.S. to do this is to use its own oil to help the U.S. oil industry and not to take in any foreign oil. Another way is for president Trump to get the Saudis and Russia to make cuts in oil production and reach an agreement on supply of oil into world markets. During the early weeks of the coronavirus health crisis the impact on the world economy and demand was underestimated by both Russia and the Saudis. Russia depends on oil exports for one third of its budget and the Saudis have to cut 30% of their budget for ministries because of low oil prices, imposing hardships in both countries. ...

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The Guardian gives this story of Khamanei's rule in Iran after 1989. He was made president in 1981 in a landslide win at that time just 2 years after the revolution in 1979 that toppled the Shah of Iran's monarchial regime. Khamanei comes from a the family of a modest cleric in the town of Mashaad who was immersed in the anticolonial writings coming out of Arab North Africa's liberation movements. His policy towards Israel and the US, difficult relations with Arab countries in the neighborhood, and pursuit of nuclear weapons technologies, led Iran to become isolated and face sanctions that hurt its economy and its oil industry for three decades. It created its own version of governing and in setting up proxy militias but this resulted in huge investments diverted from the economy of Iran, neglect of its oil industry and production under western sanctions, that led to economy collapsing and student protests every decade. This expanded in 2025 to broad sections of the population calling for a new direction. Protests were suppressed leading to a disconnect with the people by 2026. To truly understand Iran one has to step back to the 1900's ( as one must also do to understand China or India), as Iran was ruled by the Qajar dynasty at the time. The first Majlis parliament was set up in Iran in 1906 -with the help of "good" Britishers like the British agent in Rajkot who helped send Gandhi to London to study law- wished to see a constitutional setup similar to Britain and limit the powers of the monarchy so that reforms in agriculture and in the civil service could be made. It lasted until 1908. At the time other Britishers in the British Empire both in India and in London sought to maintain British influence and keep out Russian influence. It was not a coincidence that the Majlis lasted only till 1908. That year in 1908 the first discovery of oil in West Asia was made in Khozestan province by George Reynolds, with investor backing of William D'Arcy. The following year 1909 the Anglo-Persian Oil Company( later Anglo Iranian Oil Company and later British Petroleum) was formed. The oil concession was given by the Shah from Qajar dynasty. From that time on Iran became the scene of oil company interests, monarchial interests first under Qajar dynaasty and then under Pahlavis dynasty (which set itself up like Napoleon II in France from humble origins, after 1925 to replace the Qajar dynasty), and the emerging middle class lawyer and civil service, agricultural landowners class, all competing for power and influence in a Asian region with Shihite Islamic embedded in the fabric of the society. Power swung to different groups from 1925 onwards for 5 decades to the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Pahlavi temporary replacement monarchy that worked with British oil interests. West Asia became a meeting point for anticolonial writings emerging from Arab North Africa and other places that took the form of and led to a socialist style anticolonial Baathist influnce that overthrew a monarchy in Baghdad Iraq in the "Free Officers" coup of June 14, 1958 led by Karim Kassem. Out of that Pan Arabic Iraqi mood emerged S. Hussein who with weapons systems imported from the US and Europe initiated the war with Iran in 1980. The Iranian counterrevolutionary movement to Iraq began from that time with the leadership of Khomeni and Khameni from 1981. This is what one has seen swing back and forth in the West Asian region for about 5 decades to 2026, the regional Arab states mostly Sunni monarchies ranged against Iran with its Shiite and also modernizing population. US oil interests in Arab monarchies of the West Asian region from the time of FDR's meeting with Saudi's Faisal in the WWII period clashed with Iranian public interests competing with oil interests (US and British) allied to monarchial interests, and the emergence of Shiite Islamic authority in Iran in these clashes. Iranian public interests that started out with the Majlis and parliaments set up by the "good Britishers" never got a chance in Iran just as the modernizing effort of Sun Yat Sen in China in the 1900's never got a chance in the middle of the surviving monarchy in China by 1910, and the Japanese colonial interests in China from that time competing with the Nationalists Koumintang and the Communist Chinese workers movements emerging in the 1930's, all competing for influence during the Chinese civil war and in its aftermath the emergence of Mao and the CCP of China. This is the situation we in the world face today. ...

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Oil prices of over $100 per barrel give Saudi national oil company Aramco profits of $161 billion in 2022. One change is the amount of oil going to Europe which almost doubled from 5.1% to 9.1% of European oil imports by the third quarter of 2022, after the EU ban on oil imports from Russia.

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As Chancellor Scholz sets anew direction for Germany reminiscent of the days of Adenauer and Brandt following the Berlin Airlift in 1948, two previous chancellors offer a stark contrast. Policies of Gerhard Schroder of the SDP and Angela Merkel of the CDU created some aspects of the situation where China and Russia are able to act in the manner they are acting today. Schroder made CDU policies under Merkel look acceptable even as they actually strengthened the position of both Russia and China in relation to the US. Both Schroder by joining the boards of Russian oil companies and Merkel with her policy towards China integrating German economy with China's, have created a situation where the American and European, Indian and other Asian, Latin American, African views of the free world are being challenged. 

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NHK shows that over her 16 years as chancellor in Germany Merkel conducted policy that built the overconcentration of trade and investment in China. This policy is now seen as posing serious risks for Germany now that lessons are being learned from the failure of the overconcentration of investment and dependence on fossil fuel supplies from Russia, a policy pursued by Merkel. It was  the deputy chancellor Habeck as Energy Minister who did the remarkable job of getting new supplies from other countries to replace Russian oil and gas. This made it possible for Germany to make it through the winter without supplies from Russia. Germany is now shifting away from this overconcentration in its supply chain in the new security strategy. This may only be the beginning of a larger change in Germany's policies.