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Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...

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Mohammed bin Salman, 31 years old, is made the successor to his father King Salman. Prince Nayef, 57, the crown prince is removed from this position. Nayef was Interior Minister. After the current king assumed office in Jan. 2015, he promoted his son to the position of defence minister, overseeing the state oil company and overseeing economic affairs. He put together a plan Saudi Vision 2030, and the kingdom has taken a larger role in international affairs under his leadership as the U.S. under the Obama administration moved away from the Saudi policies in Bahrain, Egypt, and Yemen. Under Salman the Saudi kingdom has moved to confront Iran in Syria and Yemen supporting opposite sides in the conflict, and with Saudi aircraft bombing targets in Yemen.  Recap- for more depth see groups and links and search. In international affairs the Saudis grew restive as the Obama administration failed to setup a no fly zone in Syria to protect its Sunni population. Following the chemical weapons attacks in Syria the lack of a U.S. response led to the Saudis turning down a Security Council seat.  Early confrontation occurred in Bahrain with a Shiite population and Sunni government. The Saudis then intervened to support Sissi in Egypt against the Muslim Brotherhood government as the liberals drifted away from the Brotherhood. With Iranian and Russian support for the Syrian government in Damascus against rebels, the Saudis began to use oil policy leading to an effort to let oil prices fall by loosening production limits, believing it would hurt their rivals even more. This hurt Iran, Russia and Saudis, each in a different way. Some of the roots of the Russian involvement in Syria are also related to this. Russia responded to the oil price drop by relying less on exports, and letting devaluations help the Russian economy become more self sufficient. Iran by working to get a deal with the Obama administration on nuclear development to get out of the sanctions regime that hurt Iran's economy. The Saudis cut some subsidies and Prince Salman led the effort for an initial public offering for Saudi state oil company Aramco. As time progressed the Arab Spring with protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and even before that in Iran for greater freedom, morphed into a sectarian struggle between Shiites and Sunnis. The roots of Islamic State are in the unrest in Mosul, Iraq's largest city, with the Shiite government of a pro-Shiite prime minister, leading to the fall of the city to the militants. He was replaced by the current prime minister Abadi to accomodate U.S. insistence on keeping out sectarian sentiment. This is why the problem is so intractable. Desire for freedom plays a role, but religion also plays a role, not only that but there are two versions of Islam in the region.  Remember Gandhi's admonition- "an eye for an eye that makes the whole world blind," as India struggled to set up a democracy in the South Asian region, after the British left.         ...

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Demand from China and the Middle East alone will increase by about 2 million barrels a day this year, with another 2 million barrels a day increase from other growing economies, the U.S., Europe and Japan not changing much. This will drive prices according to the International Energy Agency. Supply is not growing enough, consider Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Mexico, which have stagnant production levels and increasing demand. Price volatility has been a feature of oil markets with so much uncertainty, including uncertainty of non-OPEC production so that OPEC alone cannot determine oil price levels. Economic crises in the the US and Europe and prospects of a recession have so far not affected oil prices. If demand continues to grow in places like India, China and the Middle East, then prices will continue to remain high.

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China is building a port hub at Chancay that will have an initial 1.5 million TEU or twenty foot long containers capacity. It will be opened by president Xi in November. This megaport will cut the time it takes from South American coastline to Shanghai from 35 days to 25 days. Before this port China trade was conducted through Long Beach or Manzanillo in Mexico. China is now Brazil's largest trading partner and this port offers the possibility of connecting further from Brazil to Peru by land. This does pose new challenges such as crossing the Andes mountains and Brazilian jungle. The port will cost COSCO China's large shipping company $3.5 billion. China has invested in 100 foreign seaports with $30 billion over 2 decades. The port of Piraeus is operated by Chinese companies, and China has invested in a stake in the port of Hamburg, Germany which is the main gateway for Chinese exports into the EU. The US neglected Latin America and India during the three decades in which Reagan and Bush Sr, Bush Jr, engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wasting trillions of dollars, neglecting infrastructure investment in the US, and in Latin America and India. Over two decades the US has invested by comparison trillions of dollars in wars in Iraq starting with Reagan and Weinberger, Bush Sr. in the 1980's, and Bush junior in Afghanistan. Much of the oil dividend of the Middle East wasted by regimes in the region in wars. Not only the US infrastructure was starved of resources, Latin America, India and Indonesia did not receive the investment these countries needed for rapid development. Yet today Reagan and Bush are lauded for their contribution by Baker in WSJ today and by columnists in the NYT. The fall of the Berlin Wall was itself just an episode in the US relations with Russia as Russia and China are competing with the US. Germany itself of the Berlin Wall remains divided (with AfD popular in the East around Dresden), and Germany divided on pursuing policies that lead to worsening relations with Russia. Germany also maintains a strong trading relationship with China including a stake in Hamburg port given to China during the pandemic at a time when the supply chain over concentration in China was being questioned in US, EU, India. ...

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Bret Stephens of NYT shows a lack of knowledge of European history and remains oblivious of the disastrous consequences of Reagan's policies that he lauds. He cites Reagan as saying to his own audience - "My idea of policy towards the Soviet Union is simple, some would say simplistic. It is "We win, you lose."  The US did not win through Reagan policies, it began three decades of US involvement in wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East, with Iran, that have wasted trillions of dollars and many lives, a period in which it created space for the emergence of China as a world power with newer infrastructure built in a period in which China could quietly rebuild and modernize while the US frittered away its vital resources to the point that funding was missing for vital infrastructure rebuilding and education was not financed by the government as it had done in the early postwar years. The classic European History book by Cambridge historian Brendan Simms, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present" shows that every time any country became too powerful, the others regardless of religion, old ties or other affiliation joined together to counterbalance and restore the balance- Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary were never allowed to become too dominant. The idea that the Soviet Union collapsed because of Reagan's policies is incorrect- it would have collapsed a decade later without Reagan as by the 1980's the people running the government and the ordinary people had realized the system was not meeting the aspirations of Russians. By buying into this myth Americans were embroiled in useless wars and in so doing probably destroyed more wealth in a short time than any period in world history- the trillions of dollars of oil wealth transferred not to countries such as China or India that had to pull themselves by the bootstraps but to Arab desert regions that were itself not benefitted because they went to fight wars and destruction. ...

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US effort to strike economic deals and business deals that will change the direction of South and Southwest Asia in ways that are the need of the hour. DJT replaces the failures of the Republicans under Reagan, and his 1983 Middle East Envoy Donald Rumsfeld, who knowing about the use of chemical weapons intervened on the Iraqi side with arms support that led to the subsequent wars. Rumsfeld was to lead the US into Afghanistan War in 2001 and into Iraq War in 2003 by his Office of Special Plans intelligence. By contrast DJT wound down these wars and is now setting a new path to peace in the Middle East by showing the economic path that India now leads for South Asia, and South west Asia's Saudis, Qatar, UAE and Pakistan. This is a remarkable change for Republicans and the Nation, which has the support of well meaning Democrats, including Biden.

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Shehbaz Sharif 70,  is the younger brother of a three term prime minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif. He ran Punjab province, the country's largest state when his brother was prime minister. In this way he brings substantial experience to the problems of the economy that now face many developing economies such as Pakistan.  First on the agenda is to normalize relations with the US, rebuild ties with India, and restart negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. Pakistan faces severe inflation of 14% and devaluing currency that makes imports costlier as the foreign currency reserves have dropped to alarming levels of $24 billion when annual import needs are at about $56 billion. This has a direct impact on cost of living, standards of living and on industry. Shehbaz Sharif understands the situation and has said restoring the economy "will take effort, effort and more effort." A similar statement has been made by Mr. Modi in Hindi "sab ka viokas, sab ka prayas" which also mean effort, effort and more effort, which all of South Asia and Bay of Bengal, and South East Asian countries needs considering the impact of Covid pandemic, and now inflation from the war in Europe hitting food supplies. The situation is grim in other parts of South Asia- in Myanmar, in Sri Lanka, in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia. The popular sentiment is also shifting as seen in the Indian part of the old British Punjab province. Mostly Sikh this part of old Punjab state in India made a complete change bringing in a new party Aadmi to improve the economy and provide good governance. In this situation all governments are expected to deliver on good governance and the economy.   ...

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Many prior pieces focussed on extravagant gasoline consumption in Iran because of subsidized prices. A recent piece showed how Iranians protested against the rationing of gasoline. Iran needs more refineries as its refinery capacity is limited- no mention on how Iran is tackling refinery constraints. The subsidy is huge as it 34 cents vs $2 on world markets, it also costs Iran $5 billion which it can use to build more refineries. This piece shows Venezuela's willingness to supply Iran in the event Iran cannot depend on supply from India, Netherlands, France, UAE and other suppliers.

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The last thing we want to do is to bring back the images of the 1953 American sponsored coup, which ousted Prime Minister Mohamed Mossadegh and returned Shah Pahlavi to power, says Senator John Kerry in an op-ed article in the NYT. He cautions America getting involved in Iran, letting Iranians decide on their own, as the CIA supported coup that overthrew Mossadegh's elected government and put a king in his place because he would be more friendly to American oil and other interests in the region, may arouse bitter memories of America's influence in avery negative way in an earlier period. Most Americans may not remember the American sponsored coup. Mossadegh was a socialist during the Cold War and wnated to nationalize the oil industry run by foreign companies in the country. During those days the interests of American oil companies, the Cold War with the Soviet Union, and British-French colonial era interests in the Middle and Africa and Asia, were all intertwined. The Korean war had just ended, Suez crisis of 1956 with the nationalization of the Suez Canal by Egypt, was a few years away, the French were fighting to keep their colonial empire in Vietnam, and America was supporting Pakistan with Sabre fighter jets bringing a version of the cold war to the Indian subcontinent even though India was the largest democracy in Asia. Partly because its leader Jawaharlal Nehru, was an independent minded socialist, who avoided joining the cold war with his non-alignment policies. Adlai Stevenson, Democratic candidate for President against Eisenhower was very enthusiastic about Nehru in his speeches, but Republican Secretary of State Dulles saw things differently, just as today there are huge differences between the way a Rumsfeld and an Obama see the world. Many of the problems today in places like Pakistan Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq had their beginning during this period....

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Greg Ip points out that the stronger dollar in 2018 is creating serious problems for Argentina, and will have an effect on Turkey, Indonesia and other developing countries. Dollarization hurts because it increases debt as debt servicing becomes costlier with dollar denominated debt and imports denominated in dollars become costlier. The dollar has increased in importance in the global economy. This is why the economic growth has suffered in developing countries in 2018. It is also why president Trump believes he can cut off Iran from the U.S. banking system to increase chance of new negotiations to fix flaws in the Iran nuclear deal, says Ip.   Argentina has seen internal problems compounded by the rising dollar causing the peso to drop by 17% so far in 2018. 88% of Argentina's imports are denominated in dollars. A rising dollar means it costs more in pesos for imports. Argentina's different levels of government have $98 billion in dollar denominated debt, and private sector has an additional $68 billion, the total being a third of its GDP. A decline in the peso means this is harder to pay off. About 40% of world trade, according to Harvard economist Gita Gopinath, is invoiced in U.S. dollars, four times U.S. share of world trade, and developing countries together owe $2 trillion in dollar denominated debt according to BIS. This makes it harder for developing countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, India, Argentina, Brazil, as they now face rising oil prices in combination with a rising dollar. In Argentina a poor crop for soyabeans and other agricultural exports in 2018 creates additional woes.   ...

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Azimji Premji of Wipro is one of the few Indian business leaders with a strong bonding with Gandhi's ideas of personal responsibility for India's betterment and the betterment of millions of ordinary people in India. He says Gandhi influenced him only next to his mother who ran an orthopaedic hospital for disabled children for 50 years, and learned what it took to do this as well as the difference it made in people's lives. He quotes Gandhi as his own personal philosophy-  "Supposing I have come by a fair amount of wealth- either by way of legacy, or by means of trade and industry- I must know that all that wealth does not belong to me; what belongs to me is the right to an honorable livelihood, no better than that enjoyed by millions of others,. The rest of my wealth belongs to the community and must be used for the welfare of the community." Azimji Premji gives as three enduring parts of Gandhi's leadership- the pursuit of truth, the importance of means over ends, and empathy for all human beings. He cites a saying of Gandhi to be seen at Sabarmati Ashram and Gandhi Smriti- "I will give you a talisman. Whenever you are in doubt or when the self becomes too much with you, apply the following test. Recall the face of the poorest and the weakest man (woman) whom you may have seen, and ask yourself of the step you contemplate is going tobe of any use to him or her. Will he or she gain anything by it? Will it restore him (her) to control over his (her) own life and destiny? In other words will it lead to swaraj for the hungry and spiritually starving millions? Then you will find your doubts and your self melt away." ...

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In response to bellicose speeches by Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference on March 6, 2012, President Obama stated at a press conference: "This is not a game..The one thing we have not done is we have not launched a war.. If some of these folks think we should launch a war, let them say so, and explain to the American people." The U.S. president, advisors and intelligence officials believe that Iran has yet to acquire a nuclear weapon, that there is time for sanctions to work and make the Iranian government give up any weapons programs it is working on. Their view as stated by the U.S. President is that this time cannot be measured in two days or two months. Recent elections in Iran show divisions in the government between the Ayatollah Khamanei and premier Ahmadinejad, with the elections favoring candidates supporting Khamanei. There is also the dynamic of changing relations in the Middle East- between Iran and other countries such as Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India- which have strong ties to the U.S., and Iran's relations with China and other countries which have close economic ties to the U.S. In addition in a country with a demographic skewed heavily towards younger people and a third of the people under 15, the democracy protests in 2011 about a flawed election in 2009 are supported largely by university and college students. That election may actually have been stolen by Ahmadinejad from Mr. Moussavi, who in an election eve television debate accused Ahmadinejad of "adventurism, illusionism, exhibitionism, extremism, and superficiality," (Nazila Fathi, NYT 6/4/2009). These factors are likely to be behind the Obama administration's sense of a "window of opportunity," to use Mr. Obama's words. Recent polls by the University of Maryland's Prof. Telhami show only 19% of Israelis favored a military strike without U.S. backing in Feb. 2012, and Israeli public opinion experts see Obama's position as reflecting a sound judgement. Research by Citigroup shows that at a price for Brent crude of $120 with an escalation in Iran, it would take 9% of the world's GDP to support the higher energy costs, hitting Europe especially hard (Liam Denning, WSJ 1/6/2012)....

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Jawaharlal Nehru was leader of the party under Gandhiji which fought for independence in the 1930's. Under the India Act of 1935 India was given the opportunity to setup state assemblies and free elections  for local self-rule that prepared for eventual Dominion status similar to Canada and Australia. Rab Butler as India Secretary fought hard to get it passed through the British parliament. See Rab Butler in the adjoining articles gist. This is very important as none of what happened in 1947 the task of writing a new Constitution and a Constituent Assembly to do this for India would  have been possible without India Act of 1935- the initial training for elections and assemblies. Some good work was done for example in Tamilnadu Chief Minister Kamaraj under Nehru changed that southern state with progress in education, health, and industry over 15 years 1950 to 1964. By the seventies to the 2010 period the progress ran into serious problems first with one party followed by weak coalitions that led to poor governance, corruption and economic progress stalled. After the experience of China's modernization India is attempting a similar effort with Vision 2047 for modernization of infrasructure and development in speed and scale with one difference- the legacy of Rab Butler who no one knows about in India and forgotten in Britain, the simple document Hind Swaraj written on a British steamship from South Africa to England in 1912 by Gandhiji that asked Indians to self-reflect on their part in letting the British in "who made the Company Sardar?", the post 1950's leadership of Sardar Patel who like Rab Butler was also forgotten till 2014, Jawaharlal Nehru who won a third term in 1962 but was followed by a series of weak governments unable to steer economic progress of scale similar to China or Japan, Lal Bahadur Shastri cut short like JFK, and Narendra Modi who is bringing to the task the hard work and discipline that made it possible for first Japan and then China to modernize infrastructure and emerge as dominant manufacturing nations. Like Japan and China India with its own stumbling periods is making its way in the world today. Both Shastri and Modi are in the direct tradition of their Master, Gandhiji, in the words of Shastri "hard work is equal to prayer." ...

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Important year end reveiw of the oil price forecasting work of so many anlaysts and where they failed . The IEA and the US Enery Dpt forecast have year after year underestimated this pirce by over 20%. Analysts change the price forecasts within a couple of weeks based on changing information and assumptions. Of all this the Saudi Arabian forecasts have ben within 12 % of what has actually ocurred according to a study by Ronald Berger Strategy Consultants of Muich, Germany. And whats their forecast for 2008. By extrapolating from the Saudi budget and the assumptions, used such as giving a wide margin to avoid a deficit in the budget if oil prices undershot by a wide margin, one gets $75 for US benchmark crude. Forecast by experts are in the neighborhood of $80 average for the whole year 2008. Goldman recently revised theirs upwards from $85 average for 2008 to $95 within a 4 week period. How good is the Goldman forecast. No one really knows. Lehman has a forecast of $84 average for 2008 and bases it on the opacity of the market because no one knows what OPEC will do with supply and China does not provide good information on demand. So basically anlysts are adding an uncertainty premium to the price of oil. And this is especially so because as the Chief Economist at IEA says global space capacity is so thin and any event can influence price. Last year the rhetoric about Irans nuclear intentions was enough to stir up the price, as were other smaller events disrupting supplies. But the Iranian situation has since cooled down and diplomatic solutions are in the works. So what to expect in 2008 in the way of political uncertainty. Iraq, Iran, Palestine, Lebanon have all seen a cool off in the ast couple of years and the Bush administration rhetoric has become outmoded as has other rhetoric from Iran so that does'nt look like it will stir up oil prices in 2008. Still there will be some uncertainty premium about supply from OPEC and demand from China and India. And demand from the Middle Eastern oil producing countries themselves as well as the increasing demand in India and China will mean that lower demand in the US because of a recession will still mean an increase in global demand over 2007 of 1.5 million barrrels a day over 2007's 85 million barrels a day. What will change the dynamics of this situation is the government mandated fuel economy for all vehicles on the road with Europe more aggressive in this area under the pressures of global warming. If this impacts India, China and Russia as these fuel saving technologies are transferrred there overall consumption should see an impact. Europe's targets are only 4 years away for 2012. And the environment may cause China to bring in newer technologies that both contribute to improving environment and conserving energy. Because China's environmental record is almost catastrophic one could see some of this happen much sooner than expected after the Olympics in 2008. All that might change the way the world looks at oil and its use, and all energy sources and their use. ...

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UNICEF say 2.5 million children are not attending school in Syria and another 1 million are in danger of dropping out. And that one third of school buildings are destroyed. This is what is left after decades of civil war. The intervention of local and foreign powers in the Arab world has led to huge breakdowns in society, and massive destruction in countries facing civil war such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya. This is the kind of situation that happened in China's northern and southern provinces in the 1930's, and 1940's. A new pathway for peaceful development outside of ideologies and socialist movements, pan arabist or religious movements need to be found for the region, the Arab world in North Africa to the Middle East. China, Korea, and Vietnam found a way out after civil wars over 1940-1975. India is putting out a map for a course of action with Vikshit Bharat  or Developed India after two centuries of stagnation under the British Empire 1756-1947, and 5 decades of stagnation under the Congress Raj 1947-2000. The spirit of development and desire for modernization, for modern science and technology, good governance and institutions, must come from within.   ...

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Irresponsible talk of former officials of the previous administrations, that engages in speculation about China's motives and it's interests in Iran. 
Russian interests are to be respected as a part of western civilization as a part of evolving modern Northern Europe since 1400, and in the 20th century since the development of nuclear weapons a technological world power that sees its first responsibility to prevent nuclear proliferation and maintain the health of the planet. China's interests as a world power are also first and foremost about its responsibilities for nuclear non proliferation, responsibilities it shares with the US and Russia. China and India also see western civilization as a role model with the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and the scientific and industrial revolutions, and wish to embrace them for their entry into the Modern World.

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Several factors make it likely that oil prices will remain low for an extended period of time into 2016 and beyond. As Ailworth points out nobody is blinking. The Saudis plan no change to their high production. U.S. oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have already made investments for deep sea drilling wells following the end of the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf. Many of these wells are producing at very low marginal cost as most of the investments have already been made. It makes economic sense to produce even in a low price environment, according to Andarko. Shell continues to invest in the deep waters of the Gulf. Its production is up 10% to 250,000 barrels a day. American shale oil drillers have not cut back as much as expected, partly because many companies with large debts need the cash flow to pay interest on debt. And some of the 1200 wells that were drilled but left untapped may also be brought on stream to slow production declines. As a result the overall production of American crude, according to monthly federal information, has declined by about 3% to 9.3 million barrels from the peak reached in April 2015. This helps the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time when their economies are experiencing different problems. It hurts Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. Russia is coping as its exporters convert dollars into rubles after the sharp depreciation in the ruble, and helps local industry including steel producers, as well as wheat exports. Venezuela's economy is the worst hit. And Iran now has to produce at high levels in 2016 to improve its economy following the lifting of sanctions....

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Scientific American says 8-11% impact larger emissions under the One Big Beautiful Act than the 61%-66% emissions cut under Biden IRA in 2035 over 2005. What is the reasoning behind DJT Republicans approach? 

Remember that the wealthiest House districts are now in the Democratic party and the working class, rural and poorer districts are now in the Republican party as shown in the recent WSJ analysis.  In this situation after  30-40 increase in the price of groceries, new and used cars, and housing costs 2019-2024 the argument is that American working families need relief. Another factor was the grasp of the fact that for climate change action to work China could not be allowed to build one coal plant a week (95GW of coal electricity capacity in 2024). In 2024 US represented only 12% of global emissions and EU only 6%, China, Russia, India, Brazil etc emitting the rest of 82%. 

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The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

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Michael Boskin, the elder president Bush's chairman of the Council of Economc Advisors was instrumental in setting up the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Here he points to the dire need to open up trade between India and Pakistan. Trade today between the two countries is $2.7 billion. Under trade models Boskin says the trade could be 20 times larger, about $50 billion. This would increase benefits and wages in both countries and is badly needed and long overdue.

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Russia has 600 billion dollars in reserves and with oil prices above $100, with the Ukraine conflict lifting oil prices for Russian oil exports, there is little that the US and Europe have done to prepare for this situation. The Merkel years were essentially wasted in building a trade based relationship on cheap Russian gas supplies, and the wasted resources under Bush and Obama in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan only distracted the US from the major issues relating to China and Europe that it now faces. 

The need is for a new overall structure to be built- for social structure supporting all aspects of infrastructure, and stronger supply chains with local manufacturing. And international structures that include India and other nations of Asia and Latin America, Africa, that would be a framework for the future- a broader framework for peaceful relations.

 

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The Adventures of Amir Hamza is a story much like the Odyssey but set in the Persian, Central Asia Islamic world. It was born as far back as the 9th century. It has a South Asian version since the epic is retold in different settings and has a oral tradition of being recited by dastangos who used to recite these myths and legends . Amir Hamza is supposedly the uncle of the prophet Mohammed. Its South Asian version is in the Hamzanama that was commisssioned with painted manuscripts by the Mughal emperor Akbar. It has 1400 illustrations and formed the basis of Mughal art which was a fusion of the artistic worlds of Hindu India and Islamic Persia and Central Asia. In those times the Persian speaking world extended from Tabriz to Hyderabad in south of India and the Hamza Adventures were told around campfires and in the outdoors. The Hamzanama paintings commissioned by Akbar were shown at the Sackler Gallery around the time of the Iraq invasion in the summer of 2002 and show a world long forgotten. The Saudi type of Wahhabi Islam and religious zealotry is a far cry from this more open world of art and legend and life in central, south and western Asia, of commerce, trade and ways of life intermingled and flow of people across a large region in Asia. What it may suggest is that the current wave of religious zealotry is a kind of phase that like a passing wind comes and then is dispersed, maybe its a reaction to western interventions, maybe a failed response of tradition with modernization, maybe something else, a clinging to old outmoded patterns in areas that are most left behind by change, with ethnic and other strife mixed in with it. No single or simple response to it makes sense and a lot of patience is needed. Conflict of civilizations talk and the like may simply be overdone and way oversimplified things....

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Sindhi sentiment in Pakistan. Behind the calls for democracy and elections sentiment is gathering in the Sindh that supports looking after Sindhi interests. Because the Punjabi majority in Pakistan has dominated the bureaucracy and the military and looked after the interests of the Punjab. The nature of the Pakistani state not providing safeguards and devolution of power to the provinces, there is some basic underlying tension even without the problems that have been piled on it by the migration of Pashtuns and Punjabis into Hyderabad and Karanchi, and the killings of 2 popular Sindhi politicians in the Bhutto clan, and the army's suppression of a Sindhi revolt in 1983 with harsh treatment of Sindhis. Now the aftermath of the new Bhutto killing is taking a new turn with calls for Sindh and its 38 million people to go its own way. The Bhuttos have not supported it but the sentiment is now appearing to take a life of its own, disregarding Zardari and Bilwal, spouse and son of Benazir, who are said to be of Baluchi descent. The large dam on the upper reaches of the Indus river benefits military officers who own land there but shrinks water supply to the Sindh which is on the lower reaches of the Indus river. This further aggravates tensions. The province is now run by Punjabi associates of Musharraf and this does not help matters as Sindhi interests may have been ignored. If there is sentiment for a separate state, the state of Pakistan that was built in 1947 and how it has shaped itself with Punjabi military running things is not designed to handle that kind of upheaval very well. It lacks the checks and balances, devolution of powers to provinces enough to keep local representation strong, and the avenues of expressing sentiment being kept open for local ethnic communities. The Pakistan military is strong and there are nuclear weapons, but how effective is that if the goodwill and sentiment of the Sindhis is lost. In the long term the only hope may be for an economic union much like that of the EU in South Asia in which the Punjab, Baluchistan, and the Sindh could coexist with India and among themselves in whatever form the political aspect of states takes shape, making the politcal shape of states less relevant, and like the EU putting the years of internecine strife behind them. Looking towards a better economic future, open trade, investment, communication and infrastructure links in Southern Asia and parts of Central Asia and Iran. ...

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A riverside project on the banks of the Sabarmati in Ahmedabad gives the city of 10 million a new look. The project is similar to ones on the Thames in London and Seine in Paris bringing new park space and areas for of public space for a rapidly growing city. Guardian Cities is looking at 15 new cities with population growing to exceed 10 million by 2035- from Tehran, Iran, to Luanda, Mozambique, Hyderabad, India, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Surat, India, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Chengdu, China, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The way this was done was to develop a self financing model. This was the work of architect Bimal Patel who proposed selling 14% of riverfront land of 200 hectares to recover costs. The Sabarmati Riverfront Development Corporation spent 161 million dollars to build new housing for 11,000 displaced families who worked in squatter type housing on the riverbanks as domestic workers, clothes washers. The riverbed had become for decades a dumping ground for city waste. The goals were to provide access for public to the river front and clean up the water with water treatment plants. Bimal Patel calls the project one of three generations as  will take another three years for new water treatment plants. The Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation bears the cost of about $220 million. The famous Sabarmati Ashram of Mahatma Gandhi lies along this riverfront and it gives this sacred space in India's history, the home of Mahatma Gandhi for many years in the struggle for independence, a healthier, brightened space along the river. ...

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As OPEC members met again in June 2015 for the first time since the meeting in November 2014, there is a sense that OPEC no longer exerts the same influence on oil prices. There are 4000 oil companies in the U.S., says one U.S. State Department official, even if OPEC were to cut production the cuts could be matched by shale oil producers in the U.S. quickly increasing output. This is the new reality, say experts. OPEC expects to keep production at the same level of the current production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day in place for the 7th meeting in over 3 years. Algeria and Nigeria, both hurt badly by the drop in oil price, have called for cuts but failed to persuade the Saudis. With Russia unwilling to join a coordinated production cut, there is not much talk about doing this. The Saudis and Iraq have continued to pump more oil, with April 2015 production of 30.84 million barrels a day the highest monthly average since 2012. Other factors also remain in the minds of the Saudis and other producers such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar- policies on climate change, use of less energy and more from friendlier sources for the same amount of economic output demonstrated by countries such as Germany, advances in technology, energy saving transitions in emerging markets such as China and India....