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As one group of B-2's headed west pver the Pacific, another group quietly headed east to bomb the Iranian nuclear weapons development sites. The intent was to carry out the decision made by the US and the EU and tacitly supported by Russia, China, India, and the world, to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. It is now evident that since the beginning of 2025 the number on priority of the DJT administration in foreign policy was to end Iran's effort to get a nuclear weapon. This is why the US DJT administration brought together Gulf regimes Qatar and UAE, Saudis for $2 trillion in business and economic deals in a DJT visit in May 2025. It is also evident that when India launched air strikes on Pakistan terrorist bases in June the US president DJT ended the war quickly in 72 hours. The Pakistan military head met with DJT in the White House a week back. This was preparation for the plan to take out the nuclear sites with minimal regional instability, a goal of the American people after Reagan/Bush miscalculations in supporting Hussein in Iraq and creating the Middle East wars Americans have had enough of. It may close a chapter of violent conflicts in the Middle East to be replaced with US support for India, UAE/Qatar/Saudi, Pakistan economic deals economic agreements. Much of the Indian media fails to understand this. The job of a US president if done right has responsibilities to the Nation and the World, after all the missteps of his predecessors DJT is stepping into this role. ...

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Weak and poorly equipped public health systems, densely crowded conditions, make coronavirus spread extremely serious in South Asian and African countries. India imposed a complete lockdown of the entire country. South Africa imposed a 21 day lockdown enforced by the military. Decisive and strong action is needed early. Pakistan acted early to quarantine pilgrims entering the country from Iran. Pakistan's government has announced a $20 monthly wage subsidy for poorer households. The average in Africa is 20, according to the UN, and South Asian populations are also very young. Generally hotter climates may offer some offsetting factors to makeup for the lack of strong public health systems. India made major strides in direct deposit to bank accounts of 1.3 billion citizens by the government for many social safety net schemes in the last 5 years. It has also computer records of all citizens under a plan underway for a decade. The nationwide rollout of 4G mobile technologies has connected every citizen including remote areas. This should assist in the identification and isolation of affected areas and people. Other factors that mitigate the spread will be access to medicine when medicine and vaccine is developed for the virus. India has a large pharmaceutical industry, scientific labs and other medical resources similar to South Korea, which should help limit the affected areas and people. ...

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DJT arrives in Beijing China May 13 2026. Topics that will be discussed are - the Iran War and how to resolve it, trade with China, tariffs, and US Taiwan policy. China continues to run trillion dollar surplus in trade with the world with lower trade surplus with the US after DJT tariffs. From $295 billion in 2024 under Biden the new DJT administration with DJT, Bessent and Jamieson has lowered this to $202 billion by 2026. In that same period the world trade surplus of China has increased from $992 to $1.19 billion. It is not clear whether some of the drop in the US figures is from China sending product through channels to Mexico and Vietnam that is then shipped to the US. DJT showed results in his policies by lowering the trade imbalance by 32%, while trade imbalance with the rest of the world has worsened (increase in trade surplus of China) by 20%. What does this show? We can safely assume that excessive trade imbalances are not in either China, EU, or America's interest. China increases trade and political friction by doing so, and it leaves its own policy weak by overdependence on exports, too little effort to increase domestic consumption and living standards.  FOr the US and EU trade imbalances with China of over $1 trillion reflect misguided policy at the top by US and EU decision makers and governments. By exposing their manufacturing base they are losing valuable jobs by the millions and creating a situation where the few with good jobs in select industries live in large cities and the rest of the country in smaller towns and rural areas suffering from lack of amanufacturing base. This weakens the investment base for public services and leads to lack of investment ininfrastructure. This is called deindustrialization which the DJT and Biden administrations both fight hard to reverse for the last 10 years since the disastrous years of the Obama and Bush administrations 2000-2016. For this reason we can say a good Republican is as good as a good Democrat, a bad Republican is as bad as a bad Democrat, political labels are just that labels. The media in US and EU are on a wrong footing and still fail to cover this the way it should be covered to shake off the lethargy in public sentiment in the US so that a rapid drive to reindustrialize and build new new infrastructure on top of the old that was built after World War 1 can take place. In today's world India is stepping up with major infrastructure building just as the US and EU ramp up their rebuilding.  ...

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The US president tells the King it was special that all members of Congress stood up for a standing ovation many times- something that in recent years rarely happens. The King "has shown his class" in the last 24 hours says BBC, it is now up to Starmer and the British government, DJT and the Americans to make it count. Notable DJT sharing that the King agreed with him that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. The King also talked about the NATO alliance and its role in keeping the peace for 80 years in the world. In the King's words-  "the international rules that have allowed us to trade and have kept power in balance for 80 years." Adding that the US should not go it alone- "The challenges we face are too great for any one nation to bear alone." However the King is only doing what his is role as monarch to present British interests, and it is important to recall that Britain's interests were once colonial interests around the world, that opposition to these colonial interests led to the Declaration of Independence by Jefferson and Washington in 1776. And caution in Washington's advice to America in Annual messages when it comes to these Empires. Right after 1945 when NATO was created- as it was throughout its Empire in Asia  in 1750-1950- Britain opposed Russia and was the most vocal opponent of Soviet Russia in 1950's and saw NATO in this mission. Times have changed with the emergence of Russia after 1990, China in 1950 and again in 1990's, and America as a world power is best following Washington's advice not to get involved in or inherit the British anti-Russian attitude as it has interests in the Western hemisphere and around the world that require cooperation with other world powers such as Russia, China, India, and Germany to create a peaceful world  and not the kind we have today that puts Russia and China on the wrong side just for opposition, as no powers have any interest in drug and people trafficking in the western hemisphere form places like Mexico and Venezuela, or creating small wars in other parts of the world. A situation NATO as seen by Britain in 1950 as Anti-Russian creates for the US- Lord Hastings Ismay first Secretary General of NATO set British goal for NATO (not the US interests or consistent with George Washington's advice to distance from) in 1949 as "Keep the Russian Out, the US Involved, and the Germans Down." ...

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China imports most of Iran's oil exports about 1.8 million barrels a day which flow through the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is heavily dependent on these exports for oil revenues that support it's economy. All Asian economies are heavily dependent on the oil flowing from Saudis, UAE and Iran through the Straits.  For Iran it would mean the loss of oil revenues needed to support its economy if the Straits are shut down. Iran's central bank says it get $67 billion from oil exports 90% of it going to China alone.  82% of oil imports of Asian countries  from Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Iran sources go though the Straits.  The US is not dependent on the Straits- less than 10% of its oil. Also true of Germany. The US  would have to use air strikes to prevent any mining of the waters seaway, and China, US, Japan, India would join in combined effort to keep all sea navigation open for international shipping.  ...

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As Iranian Foreign Minister left Pakistan before arrival of American negotiators showing lack of interest in negotiations on nuclear issue and navigation on which US has insisted, the talks are on pause. The US goal is only for the safety of the Iranian people and the peoples of the Gulf kingdoms, and the Arab world divided into unmanageable countries in some situations by colonial Empires of the British and French in 1921 (Syria, Iraq), the wider Arab world from Egyot to Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, to be free of nuclear weapons. Because these colonial policies not of the US but of the British and French and the counter response of Arab nationalism, have created 5 decades of wars in the world. It is then to remove these nuclear materials to another country such as Russia. The misperceptions created in the media appear in some parts to cast the US as a colonial power which it never was in the way of the Spanish, the British, the Dutch, the Portuguese, the French, the Danish. In fact exactly the opposite. One cannot think of an American who felt deeply for the situation the Chinese people were left in with the Japanese invasion than Gen. Joe Stilwell, as shown by Barbara Tuchman in her book Stilwell and the American Experience in China. Stilwell amazingly risked his life in railroad cars behind Imperial Japanese Army enemy lines in north eastern China in the 1930's because of his deep ly feelings for China at that time. Ever since the US differed with the British and the French on reparations during the Boxer rebellion of 1902, with Woodrow Wilson using the funds to create Tsinghua University in Peking (Beijing), the US has been benevolent in its intentions and as shown in its policy to Africa a partner for nations in Asia and Africa- with China, India, Indonesia, a large part of the Asian population, and now with Africa as shown in the investments in Angola, Congo, Zambia on this page. FDR made it clear in his letter of reply to Gandhi's letter from Wardha whose side America is on even in the middle of World War II. ...

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Many of the 255 Comments on this article in the NYT say it is misleading or grossly misleading title. Michael Crowley of NYT quotes Wertheim for his conclusion that there seems to be a sense that the world is out of control, there is chaos under president Biden. This is subtly presented and clearly wrong. Wertheim is the author of a book that questions America's exceptionalism, and says "isolationism" was somehow concocted by policy makers such as Eisenhower and Dulles, both Republicans for a postwar world built on American supremacy. What Crowley and Wertheim do is put their very idea of asking questions about policy which is a part of the discussion into misrepresenting through misinformation about what happened. Biden has acted with courage to close wars no other president not Reagan/ Rumsfeld who started the conflict with Iran by arming Iraq's unprovoked war on Iran, not Bush who initiated the war in Afghanistan, not Obama and Trump who did not close the war in the mountains around Kabul that is a "graveyard for Empires" - the Maratha Empire in India in the 1700's that opened the door to British rule in India, not the British Empire wisely staying out of it, the Soviet Union beginning its decline there, and the US mired in it similar to the Soviets. Crowley/Wertheim are only making things worse- Netanyahu was emboldened by the former president and made a major security failure. Putin miscalculated in Ukraine, Biden simply acted in the way any wise American president would -strengthened NATO with Finland and Sweden, providing reasons for Russian restraint yet without escalating the conflict. To say this is chaos is to misinform and misrepresent, and favor the very Supremacy that former president Trump proposes as policy based on US power. By contrast Biden' approach is peace through strength from building close relations between partners in Europe and Asia, not provocation or supremacy. Wertheim is only one voice in a larger discussion not the authority he is presented as. For Wertheim to say "isolationism" was a bogey and point to 1950 as the point when it was created is simply wrong. It existed in some form from the early days of the Republic. Washington was an advocate of not involving the fledgling Republic in foreign entanglements of France even though it was an ally. It is not that response to isolationism is the cause of America embracing the role of leading the Free World as it is now. It is simply the situation leaders faced. Truman faced it when Soviets planned insurgencies in Turkey and Greece which would not exist as democracies today without Truman. And across Eastern Europe Hungary 1956 Ike acted cautiously. Czechoslovakia 1968 LBJ Johnson acted cautiously already in the wrong war with Vietnamese nationalism.  ...

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See the BBC show geography of the Straits Hormuz of Iran and Saudi/Oman. Would Iran block the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow waters in the Persian Gulf where Oman, Saudi Arabia on one side and Iran on the other meet. At some points the corridor in the sea which is 20 miles wide at narrowest point, is 108 miles long, is only 6 miles wide for oceangoing tankers carrying a fifth of world oil supplies. The reason Iran woul be hesitant to do this are- Iran supplies China with discounted oil through these Straits. Iran central bank says $67 billion of its total oil exports go through the Straits Hormuz, 90% of it to China. China gets a third of its oil supplies from the Saudis/Iran through these Straits. India gets 40% of its oil supplies, Japan 75% and South Korea 60% of crude oil supplies through tankers plying this waterway. It would put China and  all industrialized countries in opposition to Iran. It would also cut Iranian oil exports and leave it's oil based economy unfunded.   ...

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Ishaan Tharoor provides a brief history of Russia's intervention in Syria and its role in the Middle East since 1950. This does not mention the Dulles period under Eisenhower in U.S. politics when the U.S. engaged in the Cold War withdrew support for building the Aswan High Dam, thinking that the Soviet Union would not come up with support. The Soviet Union under Krushchev provided $1.2 billion at 2% interest in 1958 for building the Aswan High Dam- constructed from 1960-1970- which helped increase irrigation and crops in the Nile river region and reduced the damage from droughts and floods. Soon after the dam was built it provided about 50% of Egypt's electricity. This was the high point of Soviet Union's economic engagement, latter support was defined by military arms supplies and led to the Six Day War, and the economic stagnation of the economy under Nasser's successors from the military. The Soviet Union was actively engaged in Iran with a Russian and British zone in the country in 1907, soon after the flowering of an effort to write a democratic constitution 1900-1907 for Iran with the help of British intellectuals, similar to the failed effort of the Arab Spring today. In neighboring Afghanistan the Soviet Union fought a long war under Brezhnev, contributing to the unravelling of the economic structure of the Soviet Union before the fall of the Berlin Wall. The British were primarily focussed on protecting oil interests in Iran in the period 1900-1950, yet contacts with British civil society led to the first grasp of democratic constitution and processes in Iran during this period. The American intervention funnelling arms support to the Saddam regime in Iraq in a war Iraq initiated against Iran 1980-1988, marks a low point in American intervention similiar to the Russian intervention in Iran-Iraq-Syria today. It may also define some of the problems of today because of the length of that war, the entrenching of military in the government in Iran, suspicions of the U.S., and the possible sense of a need for nuclear weapons to prevent attacks on Iran, as Pakistan has done in its conflict with India, though this is rarely brought up in discussions. The American arms support intervention, led to a series of cascading conflicts since 1980 with the invasion of Kuwait by the Saddam regime in 1990, the destruction of Shia in the marshlands of Iraq after a flawed peace agreement, and the follow up to that conflict with George Bush's invasion of Iraq on grounds of WMD development in 2003 for the 2003-2011 Second Gulf War including the Surge. The arms support of the Saddam regime in the war it initiated against Iran, was policy designed under President Reagan 1980-1988 following the hostage crisis and the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979. The cascading crises with Iran and Iraq may not have led to this level of conflict and disruption, refugees and deaths in the Middle East, if American policymakers had heeded George Washington's advice during his presidency, that your enemy's enemy is not your friend when it comes to framing policy- for this reason Washington as president did not see it in the national interest to get involved in conflicts between Britain and France beginning in 1793, France having aided the American side against the British in the War of Independence. In the Proclamation of Neutrality, Philadelphia, April 22, 1993, he says: "Whereas it appears a state of war exists between Austria, Prussia, Sardinia, Great Britain and the United Netherlands, on the one part, and France on the other; and the duty and interest of the United States require, that they should with sincerity and good faith adopt and pursue a conduct friendly and impartial towards the belligerent powers.." And in a letter to Patrick Henry offering him the position of Secretary of State from Mount Vernon, October 9, 1795, Washington says: "My ardent desire is, and my aim has been, to comply strictly with all our engagements, foreign and domestic; but to keep the U States free from political connexions with every other Country. To see that they may be independent of all, and under the influence of none. In a word I want an American character, that the powers of Europe may be convinced we act for ourselves and not for others, this in my opinion is the only way to be respected abroad and happy at home and not by becoming the partizans of Great Britain or France, create dissensions, disturb the public tranquillity, and destroy perhaps for ever the cement which binds the Union." At a time of passionate political debate, it is time to step back and reflect on lessons that can be learned from the founding fathers about the way they tackled the important issues of their time....

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The Fed's interest rate policies to fight inflation have increased the return on US assets vs overseas emerging market countries such as Brazil and India. US Treasurys now offer 2% return after inflation. This means investors shy away from emerging markets as the extra yield offered by emerging market country bonds is diminishing. This reduces inflow of investment into countries from Turkey to Brazil. Higher rates also increase the value of the dollar vs other currencies including that of China and India, Brazil, Mexico. This means it is costlier for other countries to buy goods priced in dollars (India, Mexico)  or service dollar denominated debts (Argentina or Turkey). Where countries had raised rates to fight inflation this means central banks have less room to cut rates to stimulate their economies. This also happens as China's growth of 5% in 2023 as it has high debt and little room for stimulus measures, reduces any growth in countries in Latin America or Africa that export commodities from copper and iron to other materials. ...

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Difficulties in New York Times reporting on prime minister Manmohan Singh, BJP opposition leader Narendra Modi, and on Indian politics and government. The misleading nature of an analogy to black people in the U.S. for Muslims in India, Muslims in British India. Or Muslims in South Asia going back to the 12th century with the long history and culture of Muslims in the region linking up with Muslim civilization in Iran, highly developed with their own languages and dominant in the region during different historical periods. Yet also in decline during some periods such as the British period because of rapid advances in science and technology.

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Saudis are now prepared to increase oil production after weeks of US diplomacy in exchange for security guarantees against attacks by Yemeni rebels and Iran. Russian oil output has declined by about 1 million barrels a day since the start of the war says WSJ. Drops in production lead to a rise in oil prices more than making up for the decline in revenues for Russia. This makes oil sanctions a weak deterrent for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine unless Saudis and UAE step in with increased oil production to make the EU embargo on Russian oil work effectively to cut Russian oil revenues financing the Ukraine invasion. Europe has stepped up with its embargo on about 90% of Russian oil- all except pipeline supplies to Hungary and Czech Republic, Slovakia as an exception. This will reduce oil production in Russia as EU is the biggest importer of Russian oil, bigger after previous German chancellor Merkel's failure to see the risks in such dependence and increased imports. For the oil embargo to lead to sharp reduction in Russian oil revenues that reduces financing of the Ukraine invasion, and for the EU oil embargo to bring results the missing piece is Saudi action to increase production. This may now be in place as Mr. Biden visits Riyadh next month. Crown Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia has pushed Saudi Arabia to make changes to modernize the country's culture providing the US with a partner that is now different than the Saudi Arabia steeped in tradition and inward looking under previous rulers. Under president Obama Democrats favored Iran and reduced security guarantees that were set up since president Franklin Delano Roosevelt met the Saudi King in 1944 aboard an American ship during the war. The turn of events with Russian invasion of Ukraine with Chinese support have created risks of a China invasion of Taiwan with aggressive action of China. President Biden has made this clear and stated straightforwardly the American position on Ukraine- Russia winning by invading a neighboring country sets the precedent for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This is why the US remains resolute with its European partners in seeing to it that Ukraine remains as Biden said in the NYT  "independent, sovereign and able to deter invasion and defend itself." For Europe it is about defending its neighborhood from the Baltic Sea to Bulgaria in the Balkans with American support. For the US it is about keeping its leadership presence in Asia in an alliance with Japan, India, Australia and most of South East Asia including Indonesia, Bangladesh with a population of close to 3 billion people. China which was supported by the US throughout the period of colonial dominance since the 18th century preventing its breakup and foreign rule as happened in India, and a major recipient of American aid and investment in the 20th century is now where Japan stood in the two decade period 1925 -1945 with its aggressive expansion under Japanese imperialist rule. In this sense the world is moving back to the days of the Free World's struggle in the days after the Iron Curtain fell over Europe with Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe. Saudis, UAE, and Turkey as part of NATO, are also moving back to the positions they had over a long period for centuries from 1800. Saudi Arabia and UAE came into prominence after discovery of oil and were backwaters to Egypt and Turkey which were supported by Britain to keep Russia from advancing in Asia and Europe during that period. India under the British Empire is now in the Indo-Pacific Framework with Japan which was inward looking and under European influence for most of the last 200 years.  ...

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The attack against the ill trained and ill equiped Pakistan poilce forces in the Punjab and across the country. It also resembles the attacks against police forces and suicide bombings by insurgents in Iraq. The police force of 167,000 recruits the same way as it did during the times of the British rule, which is to take poorly educated recruits and train them to protect the ruling elites and maintain order. THe Punjab police officer in charge of logistics says the force has only 80% of the weapons needed for the 167,000 men. Because police officers take bribes routinely they are also not like by the public, whereas the terrorists act like pious Muslims and mix with the people. The terrorists by contrast are very well equiped and trained making the police no match for them. Making things worse the terrorist groups that were supported by the Inter Services Intelligence or ISI of Pakistan and encouraged to operate against India are now coordinating actions in Pakistan with the Taliban. These terrorists have even more training and equipment than the Taliban, operating in places like Kashmir fighting the Indian military....

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The Biden administration has limited the conflict in the Middle East through maintaining relations with the government in Tehran. Now more than ever there is a need for the kind of stable well thought out policy in the long term interests of all nations including the US, Europe, China and India for a peaceful solution to conflicts- this is being pursued by the Biden administration. It is possible because president Biden has focused on economic growth for all and extracted America from the entanglements in the Middle East in Iraq and Afghanistan that have undone previous presidents and US development.

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Zalmay Khalizad, a former diplomat to Iraq, reports from Iraq after discussions with prominent Iraqis, describes the state of U.S. relations with Iraq under the Abadi government. He says the Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq prime minister Abadi, and Iraqi public opinion, now favor improved relations with the U.S. following the sectarianism promoted by prime minister Maliki and Iran's expanded role in Iraq. Other reports show Iraqi opinion in transition as the U.S. withdrawal promoted by Maliki has led to 2 million refugees, and huge dislocation of people with the expansion of Islamic State from Syria into Iraq. The change in opinion is also towards promoting better relations with Sunni countries. People in the region do not see a bright future with an increase in religious tensions that only lead to more destructive behaviours and increase in refugees. Towards the end of the Bush administration there was some hope that Iraq would see a bright future, only to see this reversed under Maliki's sectarian policies. U.S. public opinion has shifted away from any involvement following the failure of the people in the region to resolve differences and live peacefully. The cost of the wars with little gained as a result of the failure of the people in the region to work together in the common interest is a part of the public debate in the U.S. presidential election of 2016. Sectarianism in the region is the root cause of the growth of the Islamic State and the expansion of the war in Syria, and this has not only worsened the situation for the people in the region, delayed economic development given large oil resources, and left the region worse off than before. It has also led to the refugee flow into Europe worsening the situation in the European Union, adding to tensions in European societies such as France, Germany, Denmark and Sweden, following terrorist attacks and political parties promoting fear of immigrants. What started as a U.S. response to terrorism originating in this region in New York, followed by the war in Iraq, has led to more convulsions in this region, a huge number of refugees, whole country populations displaced, and requires a fresh rethinking about what people in the region can do to live and work together and promote the peaceful participation of people in their own development and growth, before Western societies consider further involvement. The statement about lost to Iran in the title also suggests framing of statements in the old way that are the root of the problem. When the dust settles years from now Iranians, Iraqis, Saudis, Yemeni, Turkish, Pakistani, Indian and other Muslim societies may want to look back at this period as reflecting the dangers of getting caught up in the geopolitics of world powers, letting religious sentiment override calmer thinking, and reflect on the brighter aspects of the common Islamic heritage in Iran, Turkey, India, expressed humanly as it is always is in different ways and forms. They can also take hope and confidence in the fact that European societies have struck the same rocks and emerged calmer, wiser, and better than before....

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There is a 82% jump of oil at sea in 2025 as China and India stay away from sanctioned oil from Russia Iran. About 1.4 billion barrels or 15% of supply out at sea on tankers by December 2025. When Modi met Putin he offered to continue supply of oil. India says Jamieson Greer in a recent interview with Sarah Burns, is not buying Russian oil and negotiations are ongoing so that a deal with US on dropping tariffs is reached in the very near future. This oil at sea is keeping prices of Brent crude at about $66 in December 2025. DJT is referring to prices down for oil, to gas pump prices in US states having dropped to $1.99 a gallon to show progress in tackling the affordability crisis in the US at a rally in Pennsylvania.

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Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...

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Mohammed bin Salman, 31 years old, is made the successor to his father King Salman. Prince Nayef, 57, the crown prince is removed from this position. Nayef was Interior Minister. After the current king assumed office in Jan. 2015, he promoted his son to the position of defence minister, overseeing the state oil company and overseeing economic affairs. He put together a plan Saudi Vision 2030, and the kingdom has taken a larger role in international affairs under his leadership as the U.S. under the Obama administration moved away from the Saudi policies in Bahrain, Egypt, and Yemen. Under Salman the Saudi kingdom has moved to confront Iran in Syria and Yemen supporting opposite sides in the conflict, and with Saudi aircraft bombing targets in Yemen.  Recap- for more depth see groups and links and search. In international affairs the Saudis grew restive as the Obama administration failed to setup a no fly zone in Syria to protect its Sunni population. Following the chemical weapons attacks in Syria the lack of a U.S. response led to the Saudis turning down a Security Council seat.  Early confrontation occurred in Bahrain with a Shiite population and Sunni government. The Saudis then intervened to support Sissi in Egypt against the Muslim Brotherhood government as the liberals drifted away from the Brotherhood. With Iranian and Russian support for the Syrian government in Damascus against rebels, the Saudis began to use oil policy leading to an effort to let oil prices fall by loosening production limits, believing it would hurt their rivals even more. This hurt Iran, Russia and Saudis, each in a different way. Some of the roots of the Russian involvement in Syria are also related to this. Russia responded to the oil price drop by relying less on exports, and letting devaluations help the Russian economy become more self sufficient. Iran by working to get a deal with the Obama administration on nuclear development to get out of the sanctions regime that hurt Iran's economy. The Saudis cut some subsidies and Prince Salman led the effort for an initial public offering for Saudi state oil company Aramco. As time progressed the Arab Spring with protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and even before that in Iran for greater freedom, morphed into a sectarian struggle between Shiites and Sunnis. The roots of Islamic State are in the unrest in Mosul, Iraq's largest city, with the Shiite government of a pro-Shiite prime minister, leading to the fall of the city to the militants. He was replaced by the current prime minister Abadi to accomodate U.S. insistence on keeping out sectarian sentiment. This is why the problem is so intractable. Desire for freedom plays a role, but religion also plays a role, not only that but there are two versions of Islam in the region.  Remember Gandhi's admonition- "an eye for an eye that makes the whole world blind," as India struggled to set up a democracy in the South Asian region, after the British left.         ...

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Demand from China and the Middle East alone will increase by about 2 million barrels a day this year, with another 2 million barrels a day increase from other growing economies, the U.S., Europe and Japan not changing much. This will drive prices according to the International Energy Agency. Supply is not growing enough, consider Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Mexico, which have stagnant production levels and increasing demand. Price volatility has been a feature of oil markets with so much uncertainty, including uncertainty of non-OPEC production so that OPEC alone cannot determine oil price levels. Economic crises in the the US and Europe and prospects of a recession have so far not affected oil prices. If demand continues to grow in places like India, China and the Middle East, then prices will continue to remain high.

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China is building a port hub at Chancay that will have an initial 1.5 million TEU or twenty foot long containers capacity. It will be opened by president Xi in November. This megaport will cut the time it takes from South American coastline to Shanghai from 35 days to 25 days. Before this port China trade was conducted through Long Beach or Manzanillo in Mexico. China is now Brazil's largest trading partner and this port offers the possibility of connecting further from Brazil to Peru by land. This does pose new challenges such as crossing the Andes mountains and Brazilian jungle. The port will cost COSCO China's large shipping company $3.5 billion. China has invested in 100 foreign seaports with $30 billion over 2 decades. The port of Piraeus is operated by Chinese companies, and China has invested in a stake in the port of Hamburg, Germany which is the main gateway for Chinese exports into the EU. The US neglected Latin America and India during the three decades in which Reagan and Bush Sr, Bush Jr, engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wasting trillions of dollars, neglecting infrastructure investment in the US, and in Latin America and India. Over two decades the US has invested by comparison trillions of dollars in wars in Iraq starting with Reagan and Weinberger, Bush Sr. in the 1980's, and Bush junior in Afghanistan. Much of the oil dividend of the Middle East wasted by regimes in the region in wars. Not only the US infrastructure was starved of resources, Latin America, India and Indonesia did not receive the investment these countries needed for rapid development. Yet today Reagan and Bush are lauded for their contribution by Baker in WSJ today and by columnists in the NYT. The fall of the Berlin Wall was itself just an episode in the US relations with Russia as Russia and China are competing with the US. Germany itself of the Berlin Wall remains divided (with AfD popular in the East around Dresden), and Germany divided on pursuing policies that lead to worsening relations with Russia. Germany also maintains a strong trading relationship with China including a stake in Hamburg port given to China during the pandemic at a time when the supply chain over concentration in China was being questioned in US, EU, India. ...

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Bret Stephens of NYT shows a lack of knowledge of European history and remains oblivious of the disastrous consequences of Reagan's policies that he lauds. He cites Reagan as saying to his own audience - "My idea of policy towards the Soviet Union is simple, some would say simplistic. It is "We win, you lose."  The US did not win through Reagan policies, it began three decades of US involvement in wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East, with Iran, that have wasted trillions of dollars and many lives, a period in which it created space for the emergence of China as a world power with newer infrastructure built in a period in which China could quietly rebuild and modernize while the US frittered away its vital resources to the point that funding was missing for vital infrastructure rebuilding and education was not financed by the government as it had done in the early postwar years. The classic European History book by Cambridge historian Brendan Simms, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present" shows that every time any country became too powerful, the others regardless of religion, old ties or other affiliation joined together to counterbalance and restore the balance- Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary were never allowed to become too dominant. The idea that the Soviet Union collapsed because of Reagan's policies is incorrect- it would have collapsed a decade later without Reagan as by the 1980's the people running the government and the ordinary people had realized the system was not meeting the aspirations of Russians. By buying into this myth Americans were embroiled in useless wars and in so doing probably destroyed more wealth in a short time than any period in world history- the trillions of dollars of oil wealth transferred not to countries such as China or India that had to pull themselves by the bootstraps but to Arab desert regions that were itself not benefitted because they went to fight wars and destruction. ...

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Shehbaz Sharif 70,  is the younger brother of a three term prime minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif. He ran Punjab province, the country's largest state when his brother was prime minister. In this way he brings substantial experience to the problems of the economy that now face many developing economies such as Pakistan.  First on the agenda is to normalize relations with the US, rebuild ties with India, and restart negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. Pakistan faces severe inflation of 14% and devaluing currency that makes imports costlier as the foreign currency reserves have dropped to alarming levels of $24 billion when annual import needs are at about $56 billion. This has a direct impact on cost of living, standards of living and on industry. Shehbaz Sharif understands the situation and has said restoring the economy "will take effort, effort and more effort." A similar statement has been made by Mr. Modi in Hindi "sab ka viokas, sab ka prayas" which also mean effort, effort and more effort, which all of South Asia and Bay of Bengal, and South East Asian countries needs considering the impact of Covid pandemic, and now inflation from the war in Europe hitting food supplies. The situation is grim in other parts of South Asia- in Myanmar, in Sri Lanka, in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia. The popular sentiment is also shifting as seen in the Indian part of the old British Punjab province. Mostly Sikh this part of old Punjab state in India made a complete change bringing in a new party Aadmi to improve the economy and provide good governance. In this situation all governments are expected to deliver on good governance and the economy.   ...

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Many prior pieces focussed on extravagant gasoline consumption in Iran because of subsidized prices. A recent piece showed how Iranians protested against the rationing of gasoline. Iran needs more refineries as its refinery capacity is limited- no mention on how Iran is tackling refinery constraints. The subsidy is huge as it 34 cents vs $2 on world markets, it also costs Iran $5 billion which it can use to build more refineries. This piece shows Venezuela's willingness to supply Iran in the event Iran cannot depend on supply from India, Netherlands, France, UAE and other suppliers.

LyrArc Article Gist
Out of a world population of 8 billion, the population of the Middle East and the Gulf region is about 400 million, or just 5% of the population with 90% of the wars since the 1970's. Keeping this region denuclearized is of fundamental interest to the major population centers in north and south America, Europe including Russia as western civilization, and India and China which have embraced western civilization and it's scientific revolutions. Russians and Americans see themselves as part of western civilization. On this point there is no difference, none, it is only who is the more important and whose view of the world is right. Asian civilization including China and India see the benefits of western civilization, of the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Scientific Revolution and embrace it wholeheartedly and wish it had come sooner on of their own volition and intent. Other than the Korean and Vietnam wars fought in their origins against the Japanese and the French colonialism and Empires, the wars of the Middle East since the end of colonialism stand out. In Iraq, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen the only other major wars since the 1970's there are religious and ethnic wars that are of no interest to the people of three continents Europe, Americas, and East and South Asia, for whom the spread of nuclear weapons to the Gulf region brings nothing but dangerous developments for their peoples and for the peace of the world. ...