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South Africa feels a sense of relief as omicron cases follow a pattern of very steep upward increase, followed by a short period of a month, and then a very steep decrease. Cases in South Africa with a population of 60 million, about the size of Britain, dropped from 27,000 at the peak to about 15,000 on December 21, 2021. The area around Johannesburg was hardest hit. The median age is 27 years in South Africa, 40 in UK and 43 in Italy. With younger populations in India and parts of Asia South African population demographic is closer to India than it is to Europe where populations are much older. Scientists do not want to extrapolate from the South African experience with Omicron for this reason. Immunity from vaccination and prior infection could be contributory causes to the less severity of omicron say NCID scientists. "In South Africa this is the epidemiology. Omicron is behaving in a way that is less severe," says Dr. Cheryl Cohen, of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NCID). "Compellingly together our data really suggest a positive story of a reduced severity of omicron compared to other variants," he said at a conference with other scientists on Wednesday, Dec. 22.  ...

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This report in the WSJ shows Cubans lacking water for washing, sanitation, and having electricity blackouts or electricity for only 4 hours a day. Cuba lacks money to buy oil. The economy has long been shown to be frozen in the past without the technological change seen in other countries in the developing world. It shows the only model that works is one of good governance, access to US and European capital and technology for modernization, close relations with the US, building domestic knowledge base and engineers for  modernization, as sine qua non essental conditions in the Modern World since 1950. China and India tried under Mao and Nehru under socialist regimes but failed. The Monroe Doctrine is not for the US, it is an essential pre condition for countries in the western hemisphere on which the other essential conditions are laid to create modern societies. China and India with the essential conditions achieving modernization under Modi and Deng and his successors. It is true that Cuban dictator Batista's regime was a bad one in the 1950's, yet the answer is not to put in its place or as a reaction to this an idealistic version which like human nature is prone to corruption and decline, but build on sound and firm ground foundations tsuch as these essential conditions and sine qua non that stand the test of time and are good for the American continent. ...

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The Indian Budget speech by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman seeks to keep the fiscal deficit on a downward trajectory from 4.9% fiscal deficit in 2024, lowering it each year 2025-2028. The total expenditures for Indian Budget 2024 are $720 billion and the total government revenues excluding borrowing $480 billion, tax revenues $390 billion. To attract investment by foreign companies in India the corporate tax rate is reduced from 40% to 35%. And abolition of angel tax for startups. capital gains tax reduced to 20% for short term gains and 12.5% for long term gains. Simplification of the Income Tax Act of 1961 within 6 months. Lowering of taxes for personal income taxes to 30% above 15 lakh rupees. Exempt 25 critical minerals from basic customs duties to assist processing in India. Reduce basic customs duties on mobile phones to 15%. Customs duties to support domestic manufacturing, export competitiveness. Simplify and rationalize the hugely beneficial GST Tax, "a success of vast proportions, reducing the compliance burden and logistics cost for trade and industry." "The gross and net market borrowings through dated securities during 2024-25 are estimated at ` 14.01 lakh crore and ` 11.63 lakh crore respectively. Both will be less than that in 2023-24. 114. The fiscal consolidation path announced by me in 2021 has served our economy very well, and we aim to reach a deficit below 4.5 per cent next year. The Government is committed to staying the course. From 2026-27 onwards, our endeavour will be to keep the fiscal deficit each year such that the Central Government debt will be on a declining path as percentage of GDP." For the year 2024-25, the total receipts other than borrowings and the total expenditure are estimated at ` 32.07 lakh crore and ` 48.21 lakh crore respectively. The net tax receipts are estimated at ` 25.83 lakh crore. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.9 per cent of GDP. ...

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Does a 10% reduction in tariffs on China with the October 30 2025 agreement- made in Busan South Korea at APEC meetings- make a difference for companies relocating from China? It only does for smaller companies who are stuck with Chinese sources. Larger American companies prefer to diversify their supply chain and continue to relocate part of their factories to Vietnam, India and other countries knowing that the tariffs game will end up with allies EU, Japan and India in the 10-15% tariff range as a concession to US for putting up with trade disadvantages and job losses 2000-2025. China's will still be at 47% in comparison and the fentanyl issue causing serious questions to be asked by the American people which have not been grasped in China or even in the US by companies and politicians.   Does it affect the urgency and general shift out of China? The fentanyl issue is unlikely to change and it is likely to do lasting damage to China's credibility to a degree that it not clearly understood in China, and even not fully grasped even in the US today because of the sheer size of the number dead- more young Americans dead from fentanyl than in the Korean, Vietnam and First World Wars combined. Other issues are technology that has been transferred without a proper assessment of the importance to national security, the need to shift the manufacturing base back home that US industries have inadvertently and carelessly shifted to China in the disastrous Bush and Obama years 2000-2016, and for the jobs, the wages, and cost of living concerns when supply chains are outside one's control. This article asks the question about tariffs on India and Brazil as being contradictory and showing a lack of consistency in tariffs. India is compared to China with India facing a 50% tariff because of Russian oil purchases, and Brazil a 100% tariff related to treatment of former president Bolsonaro even though US has a trade surplus with Brazil. One expects that at some point India and the US will come to an agreement that lowers the tariffs in a way that was done with the European Union to bring it closer to 10%. China's tariff to be sure is still around 47% dropping from 57% a concession for rare earths and for the upcoming elections and economic concerns not because of policy intent which has not changed on  strong action for fentanyl which is also part of the Appeal to the People in the DJT base.   ...

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India reaches $400 billion in exports for 2021-2022. This is a significant increase from the pre covid export figure of $330 billion in 2018-2019 which slipped to $313 billion in 2019-2020. Frequent lockdowns marked the period of the pandemic.

India's industrial sectors play a large role, including cotton yarn and the apparel industry. With the global supply chains being restructured and shifted away from China, India is gaining a more significant role. Australian exports are up 94% and US exports up 47%. India is making an effort to become a key part of the new supply chain arrangements of US and Europe, along with Vietnam and Japan. As part of the supply chain India is increasing imports from other countries with imports reaching about $600 billion, up about one third in 2021-2022.

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Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces the details of the $280 billion (20 lakh crore) economic package and action being taken to help (MSME) small and medium size enterprises in India. About 3 lakh crore or about $40 billion will be for support of the MSME enterprises. The MSME sector in India cover millions of micro, small and medium size businesses that support the economy. By increasing the size of the market by 2000 crores rupees through avoiding foreign tenders the government wants to give more scope for growth and investment to this sector. Some imports from China and other countries could now be manufactured in India as part of the push to be local and self reliant, as well as provide room for robust growth in the future after the blow from coronavirus.

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Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman meets IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva to discuss impact of the geopolitical situation on world growth especially oil prices. Sitharaman said India was pursuing a policy of strong federal spending with capital expenditures increasing by 35% for fiscal 2022-23 to continue a public investment led recovery, raising capital expenditures from 5.5 lakh crore rupees to 7.5 lakh crore rupees. Indian GDP growth is now expected at 8-8.5%, the highest of large economies. Sitharaman also met with Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on the sidelines of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting and discussed the current global situation.

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India's pharmaceutical industry gets a major boost with the development of a mRNA vaccine by Gennova Pharmaceuticals called HGC019. Gennova is funded partly by the government and is being developed in conjunction with Seattle based HDT Bio Corp.  The new vaccine can be stored between 35 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit making it easier to distribute in middle and low income countries with less storage and logistics facilities. It also uses a process of freeze drying called lyophilization to produce the vacine in powder form. It can then be more stable and easy to ship, easy to store at moderate temperatures. The powder can then be diluted with a diluent before vaccination. Another part of the new technology of this vaccine is its use of self-amplifying mRNA instead of non-replicating mRNA. This helps to administer smaller doses with less side effects. India's drug regulator has already approved Gennova vaccine in August for second and third phase trials after the shot was found to be safe in early stage study. Gennova Pharmaceuticals aims to get HGC019 approved for emergency use by Indian authorites this year and manufacture 60 million doses by December end. ...

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Eminent climate ecologist Nicholas Stern says India's commitment by 2070 demonstrates real leadership from Mr. Modi of India.The Guardian says India's commitment to net zero emissions by 2070 is realistic considering that it is decades away from its peak in economic growth and energy consumption compared to US or even China. Energy consumption is expected to grow faster than any other country in the next few years. India's population is also expected to pass that of China as the largest in the world. The Guardian says climate experts who did the modeling have said this was the most realistic scenario for India - to achieve net zero emissions by 2070. This also means India's peak energy emissions will be reached by 2030. Eminent climate ecologist Nicholas Stern says - "This was a very significant moment for the summit. This action might mean India's annual natural greenhouse gas emissions could peak by 2030. This demonstrates real leadership from a country whose emissions per capita are about one third of the global average."  Also significant is Mr. Modi's pledge to deliver on 5 commitments 1. 50% of India's power to be generated by renewable energy by 2030. 2. Increase of 500 gigawatts of renewable energy including solar by 2030. 3. Reducing carbon emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030. 4. Reduce carbon intensity of the economy by 45% by 2030. This relates to how efficiently energy is used to generate 1 unit of economic GDP. With 1.3 billion people India is the third largest emitter of carbon dioxide- at about 3 billion tons- after the US and China. In growth terms this means India is going to grow very differently from the way China did in 2000-2020 with its many highly polluting industrial plants. The head of the US Renewable Energy Agency Mr.Birol says in a BBC intervew that the cement and steel plants alone of China have more emissions than the whole of the European Union's total emissions. Much of this comes from old plants and old technologies with surplus production of steel from what is now a bygone era of excess, inefficiency and chaotic growth. India plans to bring climate change emissions and energy efficiency through renewables into its Gat Shakti master plan for the country's economic.development. ...

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Following an Indian proposal 2023 has been declared as the 'International Year of Millets.' Millet will be an integral part of G-20 meetings in India. There are about 6000 varieties of Millets cereal crops with varying colors and textures around the world. They are more nutritious than rice or wheat. For farmers it requires less water as millets do well on dry land, and require less fertilizer or pesticide.

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US foreign direct investment to China goes down 40% in 2020 to 2022 compared to the period 2015 to 2020, for India this was up by 20%, according to IMF. India was the only G-20 country that received this level of foreign direct investment. Prashant Jha of the Hindustan Times correctly points out that the IMF paper and the model on which this paper is based are flawed. The paper sees countries based on alignment and India as a so called non aligned country not part of friendshoring, even though Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has openly called for friendshoring in India alongside finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. IMF experts have not caught up to Mr. Biden's remarks about the US- India relationship that it would be "the closest on earth." Closer even than America's relationship with Britain or Europe. On oil imports Biden and Jake Sullivan believe that after the pandemic India should import oil at the lowest possible cost to meet the long time denied aspirations of 1.2 billion people, and build the infrastructure that will make it a critical part of America's new supply chain. Every time there are military drills and blockade of Taiwan by China the people of America are moving a step further away from American companies that have overconcentration of manufacturing in China and closer to calling for a new supply chain that reduces concentration in China and builds new manufacturing in India.  ...

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This article in The Guardian looks at the role of British authorites in the Empire in the 19th and 20th century that led to famines. Under Lord Lytton in the 1870's and in 1943-44 in Bengal there were famines that were worsened by British policy. Throughout the 19th and the first half of the 20th century India's energies were sapped and its poverty deepened by the British effort to extract wealth from India through commercial policy and taxation. During the Napoleonic Wars Britain used its Empire in India to finance the war in a way Napoleon lacked.  .As can be seen in the British Residency park in Lucknow  British authorites focused their efforts on the Treasury of the collapsing Empires in India whom they replaced. The people seeing tax territories shifted from one foreign authority to another stretching over four hundred years with little difference in development needs being met. After a period of self-rule which struggled with development after Independence in 1947, India's largest state Uttar Pradesh with a population of about 300 million, is finally bringing sanitation, water, roads, housing and medicine to all parts of the state. ...

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Apple gets 19% of its sales in China with a manufacturing base that includes 1 million people employed in one Chinese city. In an effort to promote Make in China China is giving Huawei more room to compete with Apple. Huawei is bringing out a new 5G phone as an alternative and has banned use of Aplle iphones in government agencies. This means about 56 million people will have to turn to locally made products. China presents this move as an effort to protect data and cybersecurity. Yet Apple has a share price increase of 46% this year even in an environment in which US and China are restricting the export of key technologies (by US) or critical materials for electric cars (by China). Apple's responses to this have been slow preferring to keep its supply chain the way it is in a strategy based on the short run, with some minor shift to India and Vietnam.

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The protest vote in Uttar Pradesh is just that a protest vote intended to get a message that the work of the Modi government to modernize and industrialize the economy needs to be accelerated to see its effects felt in rural agricultural areas of Indian states. Modi said yesterday- "If you work for ten hours I will work for 18 hours" showing that he sees the need for acceleration, even harder work ahead to modernize and industrialize India.  Disconnect with lower caste untouchable voters called Dalits and economic distress felt from the effects of the pandemic, decades of neglect that take time to correct in one of India's largest and least industrialized states Uttar Pradesh, led to prime minister Modi failing to get most of the 80 of 543 seats as it had done in three previous elections. Lower caste Dalits form 20% of the population, other lower castes another 40% of the population and 20% are Muslim voters. With this mix of voters and the time it takes to modernize and industrialize its economy in a state that was neglected for over 60 years the Modi government's best intentions have not delivered election results in the state in 2024 after the pandemic. Delivery on schemes for sanitation, clean running water, affordable housing, cooking gas for poor households, that have brought 250 million out of poverty nationally and about 40 million in Uttar Pradesh alone, was overlooked by voters, and younger voters. This does not change the path of modernization that countries such as China have taken and which require a strong administration with full public support working with industry and all parts of society to build infrastructure and manufacturing rapidly over 15-20 years. In China this happened from 1990 to 2010. In India this will take 2014- 2030 to achieve. In Bihar, UP, Orissa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, in all these states with large areas of backwardness in development the only path to realize the aspirations of the people is the path offered for modernization by prime minister Modi. The protest vote of 2024 is then a way of saying to prime minister Modi that the level of development needs only to be accelerated to see its benefits for hundreds of million of people in rural agricultural areas. ...

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Fewer workers will support the elderly in the U.S. and the process is accelerating, posing new problems for Social Security programs. Census figures show in 2017 there were 25 Americans 65 years or older for every 100 people in working years, by 2030 this figure goes up to 35 retirees. By 2025 it will reach 33 retirees. By comparison in 2025 Canada would be 40 retirees, Germany 44, Japan 58, and on the lower side India at 13, Mexico 16, China 22. Trustees for Social Security are dipping into the Trust fund in 2018 to pay benefits for first time since 1982.

States are in worse shape $2.6 trillion in assets cover $4 trillion in liabilities in fiscal 2016, according to data from Pew Trust.

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New targets are reviewed for malnutrition and under nutrition in India by prime minister Modi for the year 2022, the 75th year of Indian independence. Current status and nutrition initiatives were discussed and new targets set for the whole country, region by region. Real time monitoring will be conducted. Greater awareness is needed for this problem in India to get better results.

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Coal India, is a state run monopoly which is a huge stumbling block for India's economic development. India lags behind Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia in the percentage of the population having electricity. Production methods do not use modern technology similiar to mines in other countries, and the average age of the 333,000 employees is 45-50 years. An eight hour shift at some mines produces as much coal as a mine in the U.S. does in 5 minutes, because of the lack of modern technology. About 300 million Indians lack electricity. The Modi administration's focus is on improving efficiency, introducing competition, and bringing major technological changes to the coal industry. Piyush Goyal, India's Coal minister faces one of the biggest challenges in the Modi administration. His focus is on efficiency, and the Modi administration has set a target of 1 billion tons for 2020, a 15% increase in production each year for the next 5 years.

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Modi refers to an ecosystem that continuously shrinks the pool of capital from government revenues, revenues intended to fund development roads, bridges and other infrastructure illegally siphoned away, that stalled and suffocated rapid development in India for 75 years. Without foreign investment there can be no rapid development in India. Without strong and efficient institutions foreign investment has not come to India in the last 30 years in the way it has come to China. These institutions of good governance that prevent such siphoning away of revenues enable 100% of every dollar or rupee of taxes to go into development essential for funding infrastructure, climate infrastructure, logistics and the other inputs of capital, labor, energy and land to build manufacturing capabilities. An ever widening pool of the inputs of capital, labor and land year after year- a process that Japan, then South Korea, then China has accomplished is possible. I It is only now taking place in India. What Mohandas Gandhi, Nehru and Sardar Patel failed to grasp in the 30's, 40's and 50's is that it was possible to have an independent India and still remain a backward undeveloped nation for a staggering period of 75 years or almost half of the period the British ruled India. What Mao failed to grasp in China and which was corrected by other leaders to make China an advanced economy able to fulfill the aspirations of the Chinese people, is also the situation that prevailed in India. Post independence leaders in China and India both isolated their economies, both limited human potential, both let institutions fail in good governance.  It is only now moving India into the process of developing an advanced developed economy by 2040, able to fulfill the aspirations of a youthful population of 1.2 billion people. ...

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Depleting ground water reserves are leading to water shortages in India's cities. About 40% of India's people lack drinking water by 2030, according to government think tank NITI Aayog 2018 report. Water shortages are hitting cities such as Chennai. This report looks at the water shortage in remote Himalayan region Ladakh. WOrld Resources Institute points out that India is the 13th most water stressed country in the world, with a population three times the combined population of 16 countries that are water stressed. By 2030 water demand will double in India. The government is giving drinking water top priority in its plan for the next 5 years as key to development.  One of the problems is that farmers in the northern plains pay little for gorundwater use resulting in the planting of water intensive crops. The government plans to promote conservation of water as a national priority with education on this subject of water critical to achieving its objective of providing 100%  access to drinking water for Indians. Drip irrigation with minimal water use is also being encouraged to conserve water. ...

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The NYT provides a good look at the situation in India in September where cases are over 4.5 million, the world's second largest after U.S. During the lockdown in April and May India had successfully stemmed the coronavirus. After reopening in June a lot has changed as can be seen in this look at the steep curve in June, July, August and September. Cases are now at the rate of 95,000 daily and deaths at 1172 daily as of September 9. The deaths are up 16% and cases up 29% over 2 weeks. Maps show the situation in the states with Maharashtra, Andhra, Tamilnadu, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh showing the highest cases. Maharashtra has about 1 million cases and the two states in the south east Andhra and Tamilnadu have about 1 million combined with Uttar Pradesh at about 250,000 cases. Delhi has about 200,000 cases. So that about half of the 4.5 million cases are in three states in the southeast and the western state where Mumbai (Bombay) is located. The increase was seen after increased testing from 200,000 a day to 1 million a day by the end of August, a steep jump being seen in late August and September. At the end of July the coronavirus recovery rate of 70% in India and 90% in Delhi were the favorable signs, until things changed in August with increased testing and the spread to rural areas. India is doing over 1 million tests daily. On September 3, 1.1 million people were tested, taking the total to 45 million tested throughout India.  As in Europe and America the reopening which is essential for the economy and jobs has resulted in a big jump in cases. The laws for lockdown were carefully obeyed without many of the problems seen in America and Europe, the early complete lockdown was implemented with success, and Indian pharmaceutical companies are some of the largest in the world giving the public wide access to essential medicines and drugs. The postal service has functioned remarkably well during the lockdown for delivery of essentials throughout the country, and earlier action to establish bank accounts for each and every individual in the country, has enabled rural Indians to get through this most difficult period. This has given the government some breathing room as it faces the cases from reopening in a vast country of 1380 million people.   ...

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The Indian government imposes a 40% export tax on onions. Tomato pries have increased fivefold and onion prices have surged with drought in some areas and floods damaging crops. Uneven rainfall is affecting grain supplies also and the Indian government is keeping a close watch on this. Prime minister Modi also stated this in his Independence Day speech.

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DW.com's Aditya Sharma takes a deeper look at India's efforts to tackle climate change before the COP26 Glasgow Summit. Mr. Modi will attend the global summit in Glasgow, Scotland, COP26. Chinese president Xi Jinping is not expected to attend. India is the only major country to be on track to achieve its targets set in the Paris Climate change Agreement, according to the UN Environment Program's Emission Gap Report.  This report in DW.com says India plans to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP- volume of emissions for every unit of GDP- by around 35% by 2030 from 2005 levels. India is also nearing its goal under 2015 Paris Agreement for achieving about 40% share of non fossil fuel based electricity generating capacity, which the government expects will be achieved by 2023, 7 years ahead of schedule. Behind this are ambitious goals for solar energy generation set by prime minister Modi, after his first experiments with new solar energy technologies when he was running the state government in Gujarat state. Modi sees new technologies of the future playing a big role in making it possible to achieve ambitious goals way ahead of schedule. This is the unique approach India is adopting of pushing ahead with newer and newer technologies. ...

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A sign of the growing people to people relationship of the US and India is the number of Indians in US graduate schools which went up from 68,000 to 102,000 in the 2021-2022 academic year, up 48%. There almost as many Indians taking the GRE exam for entry into US graduate schools in 2023 as Americans taking GRE in the US. Another sign of the expanding people to people relationship is the decision of the Biden administration to give 1 million visitor visas to Indians in the coming year. In India physical sciences and humanities for GRE exceed engineering by a wide margin, showing the shift in subjects. Under India's new education policy NEP the shift is to a more multidisciplinary approach and allowing students to mix science subjects, math with humanities. This approach is seen as best for India to produce a new generation that can think for itself better than the purely engineering science or medical track graduates of the past who had limited knowledge of the humanities. This overly engineering focus has prevailed in the educational approaches of Japan and China during their rapid growth period. India under the Modi administration is betting on a wider knowedge of different and contrasting subjects and disciplines for its future. ...

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Even though ambitious targets are being set by the government raising from 50 million to 80 million in 3 years the target for new LPG connections to shift rural households from firewood to natural gas use, more needs to be done. The head of the Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister Modi of India. Bibek Debroy, asks questions about the Ujjwalla program in India to shift rural homes from firewood to gas use. Is the fixed subsidy of Rs 1600 enough? Is a 5kg cylinder what the market wants instead of the 14.2 kg cylinder? Are there externalities that favor use of firewood? Will rural households replace the cylinders at this subsidy level because the costs are still high?  The PMUY, or Pradhan Mantri Ujjwalla Yojana was launched in India in 2016 in Ballia, Uttar Pradesh under the Modi administration. The target for LPG gas use for firewood using households was 15 million in the first year and 50 million for the next 3 years. The government pays Rs. 1600 subsidy for a new connection reimbursing the oil company making the connection. The refill and cost of stove, is the rural household's responsibility. Separate guidelines were made for urban households. The government website mygov.in shows 41 million households have used Ujjwalla to get LPG and stop firewood use. The new target of 80 million means the goal post is moving higher. The 2011 Census is cited showing the rural household use moved up from 6% to 12% by 2011. For All India it was from 17% to 29%. About 100 million rural households use firewood, 62.5% of all rural households in 2011. A big issue is how this affects the health of women using firewood for cooking, and who collects this firewood. Firewood is still cheaper says Debroy, and there are negative externalities associated with firewood not understood enough. Changing the face of rural India is a project in motion, with new issues to tackle, new hurdles to overcome, every bit of progress showing how much more needs to be done. ...

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Murali Krishnan of DW.com has this interview with Adar Poonavalla of Serum Institute of India the largest vaccine maker in the world that makes about 60% of all vaccines used in the world. It is beginning manufacturing of the Oxford vaccine so that the manufacturing process is ready to turn out a billion vaccine doses over a short period of 1 to 2 years. Serum's Oxford vaccine would be priced at $13 per dose for coronavirus. Serum is conducting its own trials for the vaccine. About 40 million doses would be ready by October. 

India's pioneering work in vaccine production on a large scale is one of the reasons the world can tackle the future with some confidence for the economy and the health of billions of people all over the world.