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Cathay Pacific incurred a $979 million loss on hedging contracts as oil prices went down sharply. Southwest Airlines also had large losses and Delta had $200 million loss to wind down hedging contracts.

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The third or booster dose of vaccine is needed to take out the Omicron variant. The UK Health Security Agency analyzed data from 581 Omicron cases and thousands of Delta cases to calculate how effective vaccines such as Pfizer and Astra Zeneca were against the Omicron variant. This early analysis shows a third booster dose prevents around 75% of people from getting any coronavirus symptoms. The double dose of the vaccine however provides good protection against severe coronavirus that needed hospital treatment says the UK Health Security Agency. Of equal concern is the rate of spread of the Omicron variant. Here this BBC report shows graphs of UK National Health Security Agency which show the rate of spread is rapid with cases doubling every 2-3 days. For the UK which on December 10 had about 1265 cases this means says this BBC report that the number of Omicron cases could be well above 100,000 in the UK by the end of December. The BBC graph shows the curve for Omicron cases moving in a close to vertical direction upwards. Reports say the experience in South Africa where the Omicron variant was first detected is similar in pattern causing rapid spread. ...

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American, Alaska Airlines, and Southwest Airlines are the only 3 airlines that never filed for bankruptcy. Analysts say that this has left it with a higher cost structure, and estimate that American's costs would be $600 million lower if it has the contracts Delta and Continental have. Delta Airlines merger with Northwest in 2008, and the planned merger of Continental and United, does not affect American Airlines management. CEO Arpey sees American as more nimble and trying to build something profitable, and sees being smaller than these newly merged competitors an advantage. American is focussed on markets around 5 major cities- Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami and New York. In international travel it has One World partnerships with British Airways and Japan Airlines.

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A small fishing community in the Pearl River Delta near Hong Kong is transformed into an industrial and tech hub in three decades of industrialization and growth, since Deng Xiaoping's opening to capitalism and foreign investment in 1979.

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Problems President Buhari of Nigeria faces problems with the Avenger group in the Niger Delta and disruptions by the group in the flow of oil. As a result Nigeria now lags behind Angola in oil exports. The decline is about 25% in oil production compared to a year earlier.  Years of neglect and frustration in the south are fueling the movement- the Niger Delta people feel oil resources do not benefit their region and benefits going to politicians and people in the government. Buhari has not visited the Niger Delta and a recent trip was postponed leading to a a sense of alienation. The south is Christian and feels discriminated against by Buhari, a Muslim from the north.  Separatist sentiment is growing in Biafra. And the Boko Haram movement has led to 2 million refugees in the north of the country. The result is that Nigeria faces a crisis.

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An official report after a 7 year survey finds 19.4% of arable land in China is polluted. The pollution comes for the most part from inorganic materials such as heavy metals cadmium, nickel which are byproducts of mining. Pollution is severe in the Pearl River Delta in the south, in Yangtze River Delta in the east, and in older industrial zones in the north east. Earlier efforts to get this data were stymied by some officials calling it a state secret about the time of the discovery of cadmium contaminated rice in Hunan province. China's 334 million acres of arable land, according to the most recent land survey at the end of 2012, is only 37 million acres above the minimum considered necessary to feed the large population, making this a major issue for China.

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With more vaccines available from Pfizer and Moderna, and the poor SinoVac Chinese vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant, Brazil and other countries in Latin America and Asia are shifting away from Chinese vaccines. Brazil's federal government has halted negotiations for additional doses of Chinese vaccines. In the early stages in 2020 Chinese vaccines helped Brazil cope with the devastating rise in cases. The slow pace of vaccinations in US and Europe has freed up more vaccine doses of Pfizer for other countries including Brazil. From accounting for 80% of vaccines in Brazil early in 2020, SinoVac vaccines now make up only 35% of Brazil's vaccine doses. At that time Brazil bought 100 million doses of SinoVac vaccine which were delivered. The local producer of SinoVac vaccine, the Butantan Institute will no longer make Chinese vaccines. While Sinovac vaccines are effective at preventing deaths, the vaccines have a low effectiveness rate for symptomatic infections. ...

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A supply chain crisis, shortages of coal and oil are affecting major world economies. The Guardian looks at the economies of Britain, the US, Germany, Russia and Australia. Inflation is above 4% in Germany for the last month. Shortages of workers is affecting most economies. Ports are filled with container ships that have not downloaded their shipments because of a lack of workers. There were a record 10 million job openings in the US mostly in the restaurant and entertainment industries. Low wages have led many to reconsider their careers during the pandemic, a phenomenon called the Great Resignation. Other people have dropped out of the workforce because schools have not reopened and there is a lack of good affordable childcare. The chairman of the US central bank Jerome Powell, says "It is frustrating to acknowledge that people getting vaccinated and getting Delta variant under control remains the most important economic policy we have. It is also frustrating to se the bottlenecks and supply chain problems not getting better- in fact at the margin getting a bit worse." ...

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Already vaccination experts at the Baylor College of Medicine cited here say they foresee another wave of the coronavirus in the Southern US because of vaccine skepticism barriers to vaccination, and much of the population not being vaccinated. The percentage of the population in the Carolinas, Georgia, Georgia and Louisiana, that has both doses of vaccine is low. About 50% have had just one dose. In southern states Mississippi and Alabama the vaccination rates are much lower leaving large parts of the population unvaccinated. The widespread presence of the Delta variant in the UK and the R rate being between 1.00 and 1.2 in UK shows that the UK even with higher vaccination rates than the US is still facing a danger of another wave as it reopens.  The ominous aspect of this is that from just over 400,000 the vaccinations per day dropped to 316,000i n the US. This means there will be a period when vaccination drive is stalled while the reopening is fully underway with a new contagious variant twice as contagious as the original coronavirus. This leaves the US at risk of another wave, with the south and western US, younger people who are out more and unvaccinated, more at risk.  ...

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Pearlstein says American Airlines (AMR) management had hoped to reduce employees count by 13,000, reduce benefits for employees and retirees and reform work rules by going through bankruptcy in the manner of other airlines such as Delta and Northwest. As it turns out AMR's unions and US Airways have made their own deal and come up with labor agreements that are likely to result in a merger deal with AMR with 1.2 billion in savings from synergies, instead of relying on labor savings for $800 million as AMR management had planned. This is because US Airways CEO, Doug Parker, sees increased savings and revenue from a new combined airline and a better hands on management team. Part of the reason is also the the way the combined airline provides additional feeder traffic from smaller cities to hubs in the east coast and midwest markets and in the Miami routes to South America. The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation also tacitly sees the benefit of a stronger airline so that its funds are not depleted further by having to support AMR's underfunded pension plan. The creditors have also realized what all this means by increasing the value of AMR bonds to 50 cents on the dollar from 30 cents on the dollar....

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US Airways fuel bill went up by $800 million in 2007 over 2006, and in the third quarter fuel costs were up 26.9% to $730 million. After 4 profitable quarters the airline had a loss of $79 million in the 4th quarter 2007. Delta and United Airlines and American also posted 4th quarter losses. US Airways traffic dropped 3% after trimming capacity 4%.

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Connors and Magalhaes provide an exceptional account of the work of nine young prosecutors in Brazil, including Deltan Dallagnol, a Harvard trained law graduate, Carlos Santos Lima, a Cornell law graduate, and Paulo de Carvalho, in looking into the corruption and money laundering at Petrobras. Contracts for work given out by Petrobras to construction firms were inflated in value, and 3% of the inflated value was given to executives at Petrobras, or to the fund of the ruling Workers Party of Brazil. Dallagnol is a prosecutor in Curitiba, a small provincial city. He detected unusual movement of money, where a local car wash showed a new Land Rover being gifted to a Petrobras executive, in an apparent money laundering effort. Appointments at high levels are made by the government, and the current president who has not been implicated, was at one time chairman of Petrobras. In Brazil, as in India, Nigeria, and other developing countries, politicians were known to have misused public funds, but were able to act with impunity because the legal system made it difficult to impose strict penalties. The effort by the young prosecutors in Brazil is an effort to bring changes to the legal system so that this type of near impunity no longer exists. It is the first step to bringing serious changes and increasing public awareness for change. The result in Nigeria is a huge loss in Africa, with the electricity system for the entire country the size of what it would take to light up one medium sized American city. In India with the lack of roads and electricity in rural areas of many states, the misuse of public funds is a similiar burden on the people. Brazil is coming out of a borrowing binge in the last ten years which is leading to a credit crunch in the country and near junk bond status for Petrobras, Brazil's largest company, which experts predict will lead to a contraction in the economy in 2015-2016. ...

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Risks in AMR's financial situation include net debt of $12 billion and a market capitalization of $1.1 billion. The stock is down 60% so far in 2011 and is now at $3.13 on Sept 30, 2011. Analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase say AMR should have $3.5 billion in liquidity by the end of 2011, or 15% of annual revenue. About $1.8 billion of debt matures in 2012. The demand for airline debt is still healthy. The airline industry is also better able to handle another recession because of cuts in capacity, and the effect of the merger between United and Delta, keeping flights full and prices up. A recession would also cut fuel costs, with fuel taking up 35% of revenue dollars, according to analysts. The problem is low margins and high labor costs, as a result of not filing for bankruptcy and cutting legacy costs. Credit Sights estimates AMR's margin as 6% before interest, tax, depreciation, amortization, and aircraft leasing costs, with the estimate for Delta at 12% and United at 18%.

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A number of factors hitting at the same time Chinese factories in the south, in Guangdong province and the Pearl River delta. Currency exchange rates, stricter labor laws, eliminated government tax benefits and incentives, stricter pollution laws, high oilprices, and higher wages, all have combined to make the apparel and footwear factories in the south less profitable and harder to run. In recent years about 10% of the footwear makers in the province have closed operations. Manuy are smaller operations. About 10% of the 60,000 to 70,000 HongKong owned factories in the delta region will close in 2008. Not just apparel companies making products for HP and Apple have longer term plans to shift production to othcountries. Hon Hai Precision Manufacturing Company has said it will quintuple its planned investment in Vietnam to $5 billion. Apparel makers VF corporation which owns labels like North Face and Nautica says it takes 30 days from Cambodia compared to 20-25 days from China to get product on retail shlves so the advantage of China in this respect is also diminishing...