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U.S. GDP increased by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2012. This is down from 2% in the first quarter of 2012.

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The title of this BBC report is a misnomer as the content of the report is that India and the US are actively negotiating a Trade Agreement after some disagreements on Indian oil purchases from Russia bumped up from 2% before 2019 to about one third to 40% of its imports by 2024. This is being rapidly reversed and some estimates by consultants CLSA show India only made $2-3 billion from Russian discounted oil sales, a miniscule amount. On American interest in agricultural exports India can take in some products other than grain which it sees as important to feed 1 billion people and food security.  DJT says the "special relationship" between India and the US is important, and says "there's nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion". India has much bigger stakes in trade with the US. In fact it's growth into the third largest economy in the world means doubling or tripling its trade with the US and the European Union in the next few years. This would narrow the difference in GDP and per capita between India and China, as India and China started at the same GDP and per capita in 1950. Only in 1990 with China's trade with the US has the Chinese GDP and per capita income increased to create the huge gap with India. ...

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Trump's tax plan sets a 15% tax rate for owner operated companies,on so-called pass-through businesses. A tax break is planned for child care.

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High level Swiss business team negotiators reach agreement with US for 15% tariffs in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US by 2028. One third of this investment has to take place in 2026. The Swiss business team met with DJT at the White House. 

Swiss will remove taxes on US beef and poultry exports. Swiss investments cited by trade negotiator Helene Artieda are plane maker Pilatus to build a US plant, and train maker Stadler to expand operations in Utah.

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Perceptions of Turkey in Germany are shown here in DW.com. Turkey has 1.5 million people in Germany who vote in this election. About 70% of people in Germany see the opposition providing an alternative as good for the future of Turkey. The general perception is that Turkey is facing a severe crisis after the cost of living crisis and the earthquake, the Ukraine war cutting off food imports, that it needs foreign investment in the economy as a part of the US and European nations. The Republican party in the Opposition led now by a modest civil servant named Kilicdaroglu, was founded in 1921 by Kemal Ataturk when the colonial powers decided to breakup the Ottoman Empire and the Anatolian heartland. It was in Ankara that Ataturk formed the resistance to that plan and setup the modern state of Turkey by doing what Japan did- taking on western institutions, dress, education, and changing from Arabic to an alphabet that would increase literacy. A transformation that was a sort of miracle that was accomplished between 1921 and 1938 under Ataturk's leadership. Ataturk's vision at that time was that Turkey would be close partner to America and Europe. John F. Kennedy taped an audio broadcast on the 25th anniversary of Ataturk's death in 1963 at the White House pointing out Ataturk's achievement and vision. It is to this vision that the Republican party now moves after an effort over 2 decades to move the country back to its Ottoman period. That period happened around 1500. The Ottoman period lasted for only 150 years before it was pushed back in the 18th and 19th century by European powers. Before that Turkey and Constantinople was an integral part of European civilization. In fact modern Turkey under Ataturk and Greece maintained close relations and worked together in a shared responsibility to maintain peace in the Balkans, something almost forgotten today. Greece joined the western nations when US president Truman responded with American assistance during the 1950's, so did Turkey.  ...

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This Washington Post analysis of the Republican tax bill gives an exceptional view of the bill's impact and provisions. This is the first major change to the tax laws since 1986. The size of the bill is $1.5 trillion, with the Joint Committe on Taxation projection that the bill will increase tax revenues over a decade by $500 billion, meaning that it will cost $1 trillion being added to the deficit. What the bill does: 1. It offers a permanent tax cut to corporations by reducing the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent. Industries benefiting the most are mining, real estate, technology, manufacturing. 2. The individual tax cuts expire in 2025. They are skewed to disproportionately help highest income Americans, much less lower income Americans and much more highest income Americans compared to high income Americans. In this sense it is skewed in a an unusual way to the highest earning Americans- a sort of Trump effect in place. The top 1% get a tax break of $51,140 in 2019, middle income people earning about $100,000 get about $1000 a year in 2019, tax payers earning around $50,000 about $380, and those earning less than $25,000 about $60 a year in 2019. Taxpayers earning about 150,000 get about $2000 a year tax cut. (Tax Policy Center) 3. The basic assumption is that tax cuts are revenue neutral if there is economic growth and most of that growth comes from corporations investing in growth. The problem as Greg Ip points out in the Wall Street Journal is that countries trying thsi approach in the past such as Britain have not seen such growth materialize. Corporate profits are the highest in 15 years as percentage of GDP, according to Vanguard founder Bogle, and are now 20% of GDP compared 11% in 1980. If corporations did not invest with this level of profits how much additional investment is going to happen, ask critics, especially as demand drives growth and wages are not boosted under this plan.  4.  Because the bill's changes to current law makes it likely that 13 million less Americans will be insured over a decade- from fewer people signing up for Medicaid and on exchanges for Affordable Care Act- it will hurt lower income Americans. Skewing at both ends of the income spectrum of this type is rare in American history particularly in the twentieth century after the Depression of the 1930's, and poses risks for social cohesion, making it unpopular with most Americans. A CBS News poll taken Dec 3-5 shows 53% of all Americans opposed, only 35% support the tax bill just passed in Congress.  5. Then why did Republicans do this? Republicans needed a legislative success after failure to repeal the Obama Affordable Care law. This pressure led to passage with Republicans probably aware that this is temporary tax reform requiring a real effort by both parties working together after the midterm elections in 2018 and as the presidential election approaches in 2019.    ...

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German response to Greenland tariff is muted- "appropriate response at appropriate time" realizing that Denmark and Nordic countries not Poland, Austria, Hungary, Russia, China, and other countries are concerned about Greenland, and after action by Denmark's government that "is going nowhere" in the words of DJT.  Denmark has misrepresented the facts and US history in relation to Greenland's exploration by US Navy and Adm. Perry in 1890's is ignored, Denmarks colonial power history is left out which is how it acquired Greenland in 1813 in Treaty of Kiel with Sweden in exchange of territory during Napoleonic Wars. Much of this can easily be researched and it is baffling that the Danish socialist party government is bringing NATO into this as it has to do with security of the eastern seaboard of the US, a concern since the early days of the founding of the Republic of the US since 1820's.

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US and Iran accept Pakistan's mediation of the war with a 2 week ceasefire and opening of Straits of Hormuz- April 7 2026. The mediation by prime minister Sharif of Pakistan gave both sides in the war a way to back down. Both sides agreed to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. As a partner of Pakistan, China may also have a role in setting up a settlement as China and Japan have the most to lose from the Straits of Hormuz being closed, oil prices rocketing up to $115 and higher, and even a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz Straits. Both China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits. Oil prices drop to the $100 level from $115 after the announcement of talks in Islamabad. This is not a long term settlement. After the two weeks US president meets president Xi of China in Beijing shortly afterwards on May 14-15. It is likely that preparations for that trip will involve China and Pakistan working together to get the US and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire. One outcome of this war is as Le Monde has noted- the unreliability of Hormuz supplies and shift to imports from US and Venezuela and other parts of the world for fossil fuels. And with this a renewed effort to reduce the fossil fuels needed by accelerating renewable energy supplies in Europe, India and China. More attention will also be focused on reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by all major powers. Removing US involvement in NATO may also turn out to be positive in some ways to bring Russia and US as nuclear powers to better working relationships, and reduce the nuclear arms race and weapons race. For Europe it means meeting needs of Ukraine and improving military capabilities. The overall result may be positive for all countries. The Middle East region will be seen as one in which no powers should get involved in and the Middle East will also find it has squandered its valuable oil dividend in five decades of wars and mismanagement and fall behind the rest of Asia and Europe, the US in economic progress and development. ...

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Friedman calls for a third party candidate to bring a focus on the issues facing the U.S. - winding down the war in Afghanistan, increasing fuel economy and conservation to reduce dependence on foreign oil inclusing a gasoline tax, enacting the proposals of the Simpson-Bowles Commission which eliminates or reduces tax expenditures and reduces spending, and provides any needed fiscal support for the short run. He says the two party duopoly is not working and even if the third party succeeds only in framing the debate and the issues in a constructive and useful way, it will have achieved something significant.

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In France 67% of young people 15-17 years in a Acadomia survey support ban on under 15 years children for social media. A bill is being introduced in French parliament to restrict children under 15 year from social media platforms supported by the governing party. A French parliamentary inquiry into “the psychological effects of TikTok on minors”, was set up in Spring 2025, and the results have set off an alarm about the negative effects on children. The new law would apply to children in high school lycee 15 years to 18 years, as it is already in place for children 11-15 years in college French middle school. The bill will be debated in parliament on Jan 19, 2026 and has support of EPR Ensemble Macron's party and of 121 members of parliament. It also restricts use from 10 pm to 8am to support better sleep patterns for young people and for studies.

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Toshiba is going private in a $15 billion deal with Japanese investors. This follows tensions with foreign investors and is an effort to bring the company back into Japanese ownership.

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The US Congress passes $13.6 billion in aid to Eastern Europe as part of a larger package.

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EV slowdown in the US in 2024. And GM surpassing Ford in EV's.

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The Cass Commission of the National Health Service in Britain looked at the serious risks to health of children and mental health of parents from transgender medical activities.

The Cass Commission in Britain of the National Health Service NHS has raised serious concerns about transgender medicine and its impact on the health of young people. Parents across the US and in European countries are very seriously worried about the impact on their children creating a great deal of stress, coming so soon after the pandemic when elder care caused much distress.

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107 year old Irving Kahn is the only surviving investor who worked directly with legendary value investor Benjamin Graham after Warren Buffett. Zweig talks to Kahn at his offices in New York. Kahn works five days a week and has the same intellectual curiosity today as he did when he was assistant to Graham at Columbia University. He believes in knowing more about a stock than anybody selling it does.