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This writer appeals to old Cold War views and even before that the views of Russia from the 19th century when it was seen as a threat to the British Empire and Turkey, when he says the conflict in Georgia threatens American interests in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. The mountains of Afghanistan make it appear remote even from India much more from Georgia but in the grand strategy view all this is of no importance. And the conflict in Afghanistan has religious overtones with Islamic militants and involves Pakistan and other tribal and communal interests and now has become intertwined with the opium farming in the south. Besides America has no other interests in Afghanistan except it being used by elements like the Taliban and Islamic terrorist groups and has after the Soviet withdrawal left Afghanistan to itself, and the situation in Afghanistan is more a result of a conflict between India and Pakistan and of communal conflicts and creation of Taliban by support from Pakistan at that time....

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Zardari is asking for $100 billion when Pakistan has in its central bank enough foreign currency reserves for 2 months of imports of oil and food. He also wants to defeat the Taliban and militants and find those responsible for the death of Benazir Bhutto. This interview with Bret Stephens who gives an account of it and his own comments, ends with some remarks by Zardari about wanting to defeat the militant elements that killed Mrs Bhutto in a manner where "not letting them get away with it" referring to those responsible, is something he wishes to do before his own life ends. It suggests that this war is likely to take a new turn as the military in Pakistan takes on the militants and Taliban and as General Petraeus looks for a way to reverse Taliban gains in southern Afghanistan and other parts of the country.

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Cook and Olson look at how U.S. shale oil firms have handled the slump in oil prices. Their report in WSJ says the shale firms have weathered the oil slump well, with production declines in 2016 of only 535,000 barrels a day compared to 2015. The Saudi decision to not cut production and let oil prices drop has affected mostly higher cost less flexible production for mega projects such as deep water projects and oil sands in Canada. Oil shale firms are expected to snap back, according to experts, as demand increases. U.S. production is expected to increase by about 700,000 barrels a day by end of of 2017, say experts.

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How the American invasion in Afghanistan and Iraq has not produced good results. See related article on the mess it has created for the US in the Middle East.

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Ben Hubbard of the NYT describes the problems created by the Russian bombing campaing in Syria for the civilian population, and the lack of any changes on the ground. Russia may soon be looking for a way out from its involvement in the region, says Hubbard, because of the costs of such an involvement over time.

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Estimates including one by Fimat, of $80 per barrel when the security premium for oil goes even higher after the Iran backed Hezbollah war with Israel in Lebanon. oil markets jittery.

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This report on the Hindu Kush region that includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asian republics, looks at the interests of Iran, Russia, China, India and Pakistan in the region. German analysts say the many powers involved in the region and their different interests have resulted in four decades of conflicts which continue into the present day.

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Insights from Jagdish Bhagwati- 1) Poverty actually declined under the previous government, it was displaced by the Congress not because poverty had increased but by the revolution of rising expectations and the democratic processes functioning in India. 2) The pressure cooker democratization in a place like Iraq is different from democracy in India, because India had democratic processes and rule of law under the British, which was followed by democratic processes functioning under the Nehru years and right upto to the present day. This is almost over 100 years of democratic practice. 3) Minority rights were respected by the post independence governments. 4) In China the government thinks riots are caused by inequality and rural-urban prosperity divide. Actually it is more because of the lack of democratic processes functioning in China to accomodate the revolution in rising expectations. 5) From a perspective of longterm sustainable growth this makes India's democratic functioning a better approach. Bhagawati does not mention the advantages in terms of private initiative that are fostered in a system of private capital and private companies. This dates back to the Tata enterprises under the British going back a hundred years....

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Krauthammer says he favors the Boehner Plan because the two stage debt ceiling hike will give time for negotiations and public scrutiny of plans for entitlement and tax reforms. He is critical of the Reid Plan because more than half of the $2 trillion deficit reduction under the plan comes from not continuing surge spending in Iraq and Afghanistan for the next 10 years, which he calls outrageous and fictional savings. The lack of Obama's own plan even after setting up and receiving the report of the Bowles-Simpson deficit commission is a sore point for him and other observers, demonstrating a stark failure to lead. Tea party advocates will need a new mandate in 2012 where they control more than just the House of Representatives to push for their plan of aggressive deficit reduction and a balanced budget. Krauthammer sees the Obama stimulus, auto bailouts, health-care reform, financial regulation, and the current battle over deficit spending as a large Keynesian gamble which has failed to revive the economy. A choice on limiting government or a different set of policies should now be left to voters to decide....

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Brooks point to the percentage of GDP going to consumption as having gone up from 62% between 1962 and 1980. In 2008 it was 70% of GDP and debt went up from 55 percent of national income to 133%. Financial self restraint and values of earlier generations eroded. He says the slide in economic morality affects red and blue equally, so the cultural politics organized the way it is is obsolete. There has to be a movement to restore economic values cutting across the current lines. Building a producer not a consumer economy, return to financial restraint large and small. And importantly he says, such a movement will have to take on what you might call the lobbyist ethos. The conviction that every group is entitled to every possible appropriation, regardless of the public cost. Such a crusade will he says rearrange the current alliances and embrace policies such as energy taxes. See the Friedman article on a gasoline tax, where he tells those who want to fight the wars against religious extremism such as in Iraq, to not be wimps and take on the opposition to the gasoline tax....

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Contrary to earlier media reports of Mr Naimi the Saudi oil minister saying that the market was healthy and "well balanced" and that no cuts were expected, it turns out that after extensive debate the OPEC ministers agreed on a cut of 520,000 barrels a day or less than 1% of the world's oil supply. It would put OPEC production back to 32.7 million barrels a day same as the first 3 months of 2008. This was done to avert excess supply in the market but Algeria's oil minister said that this would not affect the downward trend in prices as buyer nations in USA and Europe had already built up supply inventories from weaker demand. Iran, Libya and Algeria argued that there was a supply glut or imbalance from reduced demand. OPEC President is Chakib Khelil of Algeria. Russia's top energy ministers and head of Roseft attended ths OPEC meeting. Sechin head of Rosneft Russia's largest oil company run by the government said tht Russia is preparing a memorandum of understanding for deeened cooperation with OPEC. At tis point OPEC supplie 40% of the world's energy, Russia supplies another 11%. ...

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A grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini runs for election in 2016 to the Assembly of Experts council which selects the next Ayatollah. Ruhollah Khomeini, a cleric, is seen as a moderate who supports prime minister Rouhani's efforts to forge closer ties with the U.S. and Europe.