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Tranlation of an oped article in French on the Lashkar -e Taiba terrorist group in Pakistan, and its links and sponsors in the Pakistan ISI agency which is itself a state within a state.

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India's response says Amitav Ghosh is better being like the Spanish response to the Madrid bombings 11-M as it is known in Spanish, than the American response to 9/11. The American response was military buildup and the invasion of Afgahnistan and then Iraq. The Spanish response was says Ghosh was of vigilance, patience and careful police work in coordination with neighboring countries. And in the case of India the added effort to eliminate the terrorists hideouts and safe houses in cooperatation with other countries. Tightened security in all areas and bringing it on par with the security in countries that have addressed the challenge at a much better level.

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Dilution of the Volcker Rule by defining "hedging" as covering bank risk on a "portfolio basis," "including aggregate risk of one or more trading desks." The new wording is in a 174 page draft proposal for the rule released by regulatory agencies. The Federal Reserve, the FDIC, the CFTC, the SEC, and the Treasury Department are putting together the final wording. This opens the door for banks to engage in proprietary trading on their own account. Experts say this makes it possible for financial firms to make all kinds of bets on the market, by defining the risk of its portfolio broadly, such as a U.S. recession. Additional changes are the deleting of the requirement that chief executives pledge their firms are not engaging in proprietary trading. Another change that is being debated is whether to require banks to report all trading to a single repository so that regulators can see if there is systemic risk. The result of this would be a watering down of the original Volcker Rule provision in the Dodd-Frank legislation, that banned proprietary trading after the 2008 financial collapse on Wall Street....

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This report in the WSJ makes the America centric thinking mistake of forgetting where China started from in assessing progress and China's new priorities. In 1960 the World Bank shows China per capita at $90 which does not change much till 1990 when it was $300, the Deng opening to western technology and capital pushed it up to $3000 the year 2000 (US $36,000) and $4500 in 2010 (US $50,000) when the global financial crisis hit. Since 2010 the Chinese economy was burdened by high local government debt and struggled to get to $10,000 in 2020 under Xi Jinping's first two terms as president. Yet it paid a huge price for this -the chance of Bo Xilai (2014) upsetting the twin banners of Science and Modernization of the May 4th 1919 movement that set the course of China for 100 years uninterrupted through the Nationalists, the Japanese occupation, the Maoist CCP, the Deng CCP opening and Jinping CCP pullback. The huge inequality was seen as an opportunity for Bo Xi Lai or some other leader to capitalize on moving China in an unknown direction that posed risks for the future of China. Even then the first preference of Xi would be to carry on with what had worked after Deng. Yet it was clear that working class votes were shifting the dynamics of elections after the Trump election and closing the doors to open access to western capital, technology, and investment. With Trump in erratic and uncertain ways, with Biden after the elections of 2020 consistent and with single minded determination to limit flows. Not just Xi, any other Chinese leader would have had to have the internal discussions about the need to shift back to a model China was familiar with and one that worked before- that of state intervention in the economy, that of reducing the inequalities that posed risks for the CCP's survival as forging a path for stability to carry out the twin banners of the May 4, 1919 Movement - Science and Modernization as China's salvation. Unlike the hysteria about China posing a challenge to the US these internal debates of Xi and the party may have concluded that the US with about half the population of China's as it grows with immigration in the future and multiple times the per capita GDP was a country that no other country was going to come close to. In this sense the supply chains are deceptive as these are likely to be completely redone under the Biden administration to bring most important manufacturing back to China. It is in this context that Xi had limited room to manoeuvre and decided to focus on stability for the long term to fulfill China's dream of the May 4, 1919 Movement of the last 100 years for Science and Modernization casting aside the risks associated for instability of the inequality that comes with more of the western type of growth, and with the climate change risks also associated with it. Lower growth gives China a chance to correct some of the flaws of the hyper growth that was partly of its own making and partly thrust upon it by investors from the outside, so that the new climate would best serve the goals of the May 4, 1919 Movement of keeping high the banners of Science and Modernization. This kind of rethinking is also going on in the US in the same manner about inequalities and hardships for workers and families, with some of the anger directed at China as internal political sentiment- hence the trillions of dollars moved by the Biden administration to address the flaws of growth under free markets and intervene in the economy where needed as in climate change to give firm sense of direction. In a sense the direction taken in different contexts the American and the Chinese are the same - address the problems of workers and families, of the people, as Lincoln had pointed out and striven so hard for, so that Labor is the more important than Capital, and workers and families vital to the nation.   ...

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A new sense of optimism pervades Athens with the new government's standoff with international creditors. After governments from the centre left Pasok party and the centre right New Democracy Party from the country's elite, a new government led mostly by academics from Greece's universities and a fresh young face of Tsipras, has created a new spirit in Athens following 5 years of austerity and protests. Tsipras's Coalition of the Radical Left won 36% of the vote in the recent parliamentary elections of Jan. 2015, a month later polls show public support has increased to 70%. Even New Democracy supporters says the young Tsipras provides a breath of fresh air to Athens and Greece as he negotiates for an easing of the strict austerity measures leading to 25% unemployment. Signs of the change are everywhere. The riot police have been pulled back, and there is less security around parliament, 2000 bodyguards for senior politicians will be disbanded. Coffeshops in downtown Athens are filled till by young office workers and students as Greeks discuss the changes taking place. The ECB and the EU are taking a tough line in negotiations as the new government develops its negotiating stance, with much public posturing but deeper down a sense that a resolution needs to be reached that gives Greece the opportunity to return to growth. One aspect of the new government is a welcome change both for the EU, the ECB and Germany, as well as for the Greek people. As in Italy with Matteo Renzi following Berlusconi, leadership has passed to a younger generation better able to tackle the problems facing Southern Europe. In Italy Merkel personally intervened at one point calling Italy's president and creating momentum for the resignation of Berlusconi, followed by the shift to pro-EU Monti and Letta, and then to Matteo Renzi. Renzi received 40% of the vote in Italy's elections. In Greece a series of parliamentary elections shifted administrations from Papandreou to Samaras, and now to Alexis Tsipras. With fewer ties to the old governing elite the new administration can better deliver on prudent economic management in the long run to meet the concerns of Germany, Netherlands, the UK and other countries....

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Zweig, Light and Pleven reflect on the experience of the last 5 years in the stock market. Investors who went through severe anxiety for higher investment allocation in stocks in 2009 now feel the opposite for low investment allocation in stocks. What does one make of this, and what have we learned, is the question posed. One lesson is that investors should be wary of relying too much on predictions. At one point predictions of Goldman Sachs and other bank economists was for the S&P at 1250 at the end of 2012, when it was 1421 in April 2012. The eurozone crisis and the sluggish U.S. job growth, debt overhang, were major factors in their assessment. The eurozone recovered faster than expected and the Iranian nuclear crisis risks were reduced through negotiations. QE 1, QE 2, QE 3 by the U.S. Fed under Bernanke provided support to the market. Banks recovered faster than expected with help from the Fed. Another lesson is that this can happen with higher volatility, 900 point drops occured in May 2010 and there were drops in April 2012 and other dates. Zweig gives April 2011 as a date for the start of a 5 month bear market, citing Oct 4, 2011 as another date with the market dropping 21% from the April 2011 peak. Another lesson is that performance statistics can play tricks, a month or a year can make a big difference. If 2013 is not included the statistics look very different, if 5 years go back to Feb 2009 when there was a 11% decline instead of March 2009 when there was a 9% improvement the numbers change quite a bit. Another lesson is that macroeconomic news played a major part in the story of the stock market in 2009-2014 and continues today, with continuing support and vigilance from the U.S. Fed and the ECB. The bad news from the eurozone throughout 2011 and into 2012, and sluggish job markets in the U.S., took a positive turn in 2013. The U.S economy is improving and the eurozone is returning to growth gradually in 2014. Because of different timing in their recovery P/E ratios are higher in the U.S., than in Europe....

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Jeb Bush sees many who come to the U.S. looking for a better life as similiar to people who arrived here in earlier waves of immigrants all the way back to 1800. He described the actions of many who come to the U.S. illegally as an "act of love," and "act of committment to family," in a talk at College Station Texas, on the 25th anniversary celebration of the presidency of his father, George H.W. Bush. Its breaking the law, he says, but different, not a felony. Benjamin Franklin describes German immigrants to Pennsylvania in his writings at a time when immigrants were what made this country. They were different in some ways then but long since became part of the fabric of America, as have new immigrants in the different periods of the 19th and 20th century. Here is what Benjamin Franklin says about the German immigrants whom he praises for habitual "Industry and Frugality they bring with them," in a letter to Peter Collinson, May 19th 1753, addressing the fears as well as what they could bring to the new country, which throws light on todays immigration debates in a new light. "In short unless the stream of their importation could be turned from this to other colonies, as you very judiciously propose, they will soon so out number us, that all the advantages we have will not in My Opinion be able to preserve our language, and even our government will become precarious." And then saying in the same letter-"Yet I am not for refusing entirely to admit them into our Colonies: all that seems to be necessary, is, to distribute them more equally, mix them with the English, establish English Schools where they are now too thick settled, and take some care to prevent the practice lately fallen into by some of the Ship Owners, of sweeping the German Goals to make up the number of their passengers. I say I am not against the Admission of Germans in general, for they have their Virtues, their industry and frugality is exemplary; They are excellent husbandmen and contribute greatly to the improvement of a Country." ...

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Ann Lee a former investment banker and now adjunct Professor at New York University, gives us facts that show the smaller banks that lend to small and medium sized businesses in the country are being closed by the FDIC. According to ADP small business that employs between 1 to 49 people, accounts for 48 million jobs, those between 50 and 499 employees account for 42 million jobs, and large business for only 17 million jobs. Without access to capital these small and medium sized businesses will continue to layoff employees, creating a vicious cycle of falling credit and demand. According to Automatic Data Processing's August employment report large business shed 60,000 jobs, medium sized business 116,000 jobs and small businesses shed 122,000 jobs. These smaller banks says Lee have done most of the lending to small and medium sized businesses. And overall lending has dropped from pre-crisis levels. Treasury's Capital Purchase Monthly Lending Report shows that banks that received government money actually reduced loan balance by $54 billion. According to reports issued by major credit rating agencies $700 billion of asset backed securities were underwitten in 2007. In 2009 only $10 billion was issued. This has a significant impact in every area. Banks have no incentive to lend with all the bad nonperforming loans on their books. They only hope that over time renegotiated loan terms would enable to recover these loans. But this might take a decade says Lee, if this is similiar to other crises like the one in Japan. She says what the banks do to make money is to borrow virtually unlimited amounts from the Fed at near zero rates and earn money from the spread when they lend to the Treasury. Does our current banking system make sense she asks. Banks are not investing in economic activity, in real products and services,but engaged in agovernment backed shell game that enriches bankers at the expense of everyone else. She says that the banking lobby may prevail in preventing the nationalization of the banking system, but this will not prevent questions about the status quo and its assumptions from arising if the recovery and regulatory reforms fail. ...

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Citing the drop in oil prices (with housing having to hit bottom at some point) and the stimulus package, Alan Blinder, says the recession should end by the 4th quarter of 2009. This is in sharp contrast to Ferguson's, Spence's, Roach's and Reinhart's view on the editorial pages of the NYT. The difference is whats striking. Ferguson, Roach and Reinhart say 3-4 years, Spence, is of a similiar view, if actions taken don't work the way they are expected to, and they don't put any dates down because too much is happening in the economy, with so much uncertainty. The titles of these three economist's pieces are also instructive, Beware of False Dawn by Roach, Rule of Four by Reinhart, and Spence's A Long Goodbye. Here is Blinder not only saying there won't be any surprises from now on (who knows for sure?) but also puts down an approximate time. He also ventures an exact impact of the stimulus, of 5% impact on real GDP in 2 years. With all that has gone wrong under Greenspan's leadership, one wonders about the credibility of being Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve during Greenspan's time at the Fed. And as if to ridicule his own forecast he says without any hesitation: "But here's the rub. My forecast assumes that no other (big) shoes will drop. Sad to say, shoes have been dropping like rain." Whats the use of a forecast that has a remark like that tagged on to it, and how responsible is a statement that doesn't suggest caution, when businesses and jobs have been destroyed through overoptimistic forecasts and lack of decisive action. A case in point being General Motors, and the government and the American people are being asked to put $100 billion into General Motors. This is no time for reckless forecasts or for any but the most carefully thought through analysis. Lives and livelihood depend on it. Is this what the President means, when he talks about an era with a lack of responsibility in government and in companies, and those in leadership positions in the country, for their statements and their actions....

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Privileged minorities ethnic or white among large native populations. Amy Chua argues that free markets that empower the white minority giving it special privileged status, and democracy that empowers the native peoples, leads to conflict and exacerbates tensions. She talks about the Venezuelan experience with Chavez. Before Chavez Venezuela had free markets and elections in which two parties alternately controlled the government. Even before Reagan era and post Reagan era promotion of free markets and democracy this existed. However people were fed up with corruption and the native peoples did not see their lives improve. They tried a populist politician in Chavez who redistributes petroleum wealth to the poorer classes. Some of this tension is inevitable, but if all sides use good sense and understanding, and manage this tension constructively there still exists a better situation than there was before- when looking at overall public welfare and considering the welfare of the people and the educated professional classes. When there is a failure to work together it shows the shortsightedness of both sides, the poor understanding and lack of joint effort for mutual benefits, and not the shortsightedness of free markets and democracy. And one is not talking of free markets as American type, but free markets as crafted for each individual country based on its own history, culture, time and place, as free markets are not the same in America, Britain, Germany, France, Japan and South Korea, China and India in the post war period. China is not even a democracy and has practiced one of the wildest kind of free market economy based on its own unique situation, calculated consensus to use exports, foreign investment, and domestic investment in infrastructure as engines of development- its own peculiar use of free market ideas for its own situation. If it works, for as long as it works its good. Now as the situation changes with loss of export markets expected in 2009, China is changing to another kind of use of free market ideas tailored to its idea of free markets for development of the Chinese economy and distribution of benefits to urban and rural areas. ...

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Peter Hessler was a teacher in Sichuan province of China before living in Tibet and writing this article for The Atlantic.  It gives some insights into both the thinking of Chinese people and Tibetan people and the changes happening around them. Inevitably changes would have come to Tibet from outside or without China's takeover of Tibet in 1950, would have come in some other form, as it has in neighboring Nepal, Afghanistan, says Hessler, without some of the loss of some of the positive aspects of culture and of Buddhism.  Even in India feudal system of zamindars prevailed in villages into the late British period and the early Nehru period but has gradually disappeared over time, so that change has potential over time to happen, and comes inevitably.  Here he shows- the immigrants from Sichuan province, over 120 million people in the province, and part of a floating population of migrant workers in China, looking for jobs or economic opportunity, and some taking up life at the high Himalayan altitudes for 2-3 years or even 8 year terms. The belief Hessler says among Sichuan immigrants that high altitude was bad for the lungs over long periods and shortened life. The lack of women with a disproportionate number of men making the journey to start a new life in Tibet, the hardships, the enterprising nature of Sichuan immigrants in the shops and retail that Tibetans lacked the enterprising skills to do, the difficulties living with two cultures side by side, the lack of any incentive to learn the local language. The feelings of Tibetan people that they are somehow losing their culture and identity. The sense among immigrants that this is not their first choice of place but somehow would have to do till they go back and find someone to marry during brief trips back home to Sichuan. There is something timeless about this essay, as changes unfold, no one unambiguous trend, a more complex situation.  China's sense that the west has violated its sovereignty under the British and foreign powers in the nineteenth century. The feeling that somehow Tibet is part of this sense of China regaining what it had lost to the foreign powers. Without the realization that Tibet has served as a gift of nature, a given mountainous buffer that helped two Asian civilizations prosper in the Ganges and Yangtse river valleys, thousands of miles apart. And both having the similar experience with the British and foreign powers in the eighteenth and nineteenth century, and both recovering modernizing at the same pace.    The sense China has, says Hessler, that it is about China's sovereignty following a Qing dynasty entry into Lhasa in 1792, even though the Qing saw Tibet as a buffer state running its own affairs separating it from the British Empire on the other side of the Himalayas. Very little contact between China and Tibet for centuries simply because using yaks and mules it would take several months from northern China to Tibet crossing mountain ranges at 15,000 feet. The British saw this as a buffer state in the same way as happened also with the Mughals in the 15th to 18th century, and the Empires between the 11th and 15th century in India.  Because opium was shipped from Bengal under British colonial rule causing great poverty in India against the will of the Indian people, the same sense of violation of sovereignty existed in exactly the same way in the perception of foreign powers in India, so that the notion of violation of one's self respect being shared was serving no useful purpose in this context between China and India.     ...

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The secret say Dr. McGeverly an astonishing 104 years, as do others is to find things to do that make life meaningful and important and "our hearts sing." A daughter of missionary parents spent her childhood in India and is shown in an old photo carried in a basket. She studied medicine and had a holistic medicine practice in Arizona. She lives in a small home next to her daughter and is shown with her grandchildren. This last month we profiled Sandra Day O'Connor who created iCivics to spread civics knowledge in America for children after retiring from the Supreme Court at age 75. Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter were also profiled in Lyrarc.com for their resilience. In Virtues of Aging Carter says it is the action that is beneficial to others that is also beneficial to oneself that is the secret to aging right. This is also the concept we see common to the holy Bible, the Bhagavad Gita, and the Buddhist texts that define right living in this way.

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This BBC report gives the reasons for the success of the Leave campaign getting 51% of the vote- the votes of older voters particularly in the south, southwest, Midlands and the north east with 78% of people over 65 voting and 54% of 25-34 year olds voting in the 2015 general election. Three of five voters over 65 wanted to Leave, and voters over 55 favored leaving the EU. Other important factors was the voter discontent, the failure of the message on the economy of the Remain campaign, the 350 million British pounds that the Leave campaign said Britain would have extra to spend on the NHS every week as this was what Britain could free up by leaving the EU was the best remembered number in the campaign.  Another important factor is the failure of Labor Party supporters to come out to support the Remain campaign in large enough numbers for an effort led by Conservative party leader Cameron. 

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This report in the DW.com says the pandemic is spreading rapidly in Netherlands, and it has one of the highest mortality rates in Europe. The contentious idea of herd immunity or population immunity was accepted by the Dutch government says this report in DW.com. Very few countries have done this and it is a high risk strategy. Early on in the pandemic some in the UK brought up this idea, but the UK changed course once it was realized how costly this could be in human lives. There is a realization that this Dutch approach may just be an aspiration rather than actual intelligence in what the Dutch call an "intelligent lockdown." Neighboring Belgium, Germany and France have a strict lockdown. The Dutch attitude towards souther European countries such as Italy and Spain in the crisis has also come under criticism. The Dutch government shifted course on assistance to southern European countries supporting an Emergency Fund and admitted its initial attitude lacked empathy and was not consistent with how most European countries have acted. ...

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Some of the optimism in race relations after the election of Obama as U.S. president in 2008 fades after the Trayvon Martin verdict.

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Relations between Germany and the U.S. improve in the last year of the Obama administration. The low point is the NSA spying scandal. By 2015 with the Ukraine crisis and the refugee crisis, the U.S. and Germany develop closer relations. In April 2016 U.S. president Obama visits the Hannover trade fair and meets German chancellor Merkel, following a trip to Britian where he expresses support for Britain's membership in the EUropean Union. The U.S. general election campaign with less engagement of the U.S. in the world preferred by candidates Trump and Sanders, the Brexit vote in Britain, also creates a new environment and makes clear the need to support closer ties in an interconnected world.

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China's carefully planned stimulus in April 2014. It is designed to balance goals of not letting credit growth lead to a bubble and preserving a high enough growth rate of 7% to create 10 million new jobs each year. The smaller stimulus will be financed by the federal government which has more leeway than local governments burdened with debt. The stimulus is focussed on low income housing and railways. Pension funds, banks and other financial institutions will be encouraged to invest in shantytowns to create low income housing. Railways construction is focussed on southern and western China. Part of the rail construction is designed with the goal of creating export based industry in the interor of the country. IMF reports say this may not work out as planned as businesses may prefer to remain in the coastal or eastern part of the country.

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The new cabinet of prime minister Valls in France includes Segolene Royal as Ecology minister. Michel Sapin, labor minister in the outgoing cabinet, becomes finance minister. Sapin was finance minister under the Mitterand government in the 1990's. A critic of austerity policies Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg, continues in this position with a wider role. After losing badly in local elections in March 2014, president Hollande has asked the new cabinet to combine planned tax cuts for businesses with efforts to increase spending power of households. Finance Minister Sapin faces the task of convincing the EU and Germany that France should have more leeway in plans for deficit reduction to boost its economy and especially reduce unemployment. Unemployment is at a high of 11%. Sapin is seasoned in the ways of operating in EU circles. In his role as finance minister in the Mitterand administration he pushed for the passing of the French referendum on the Maastricht Treaty that laid the baiss for the euro currency....

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Michael Gerson was a policy advisor to Geroge W. Bush when Bush announced the PEPFAR program to fight AIDS in Africa. Here he reflects on its lessons. He recalls visiting sub-Sharan Africa and finding only about half a million people being treated out of about 30 million afflicted with the disease. About 14 million orphans had already resulted from AIDS, life expectancy had declined by 20 years, and in whole villages only grand parents and grand children were to be seen, says Gerson. The support came from Rep. Hyde, Rep Barbara Lee, Senators Frist and Kerry- in 4 months after the announcement in a State of the Union address the law was signed. Bush said: "a work of mercy beyond all current international efforts to help the people of Africa. This comprehensive plan will prevent 7 milion new AIDS infections, treat at least 2 million people with life extending drugs and provide humane care for millions of people suffering from AIDS and for children orphaned by AIDS." By late 2005 PEPFAR and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria had treated 800,000 people, and by 2012 this had increased to 5 million....

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Peter Eavis discusses ways in which regulators are conducting ongoing supervision of large banks under the Dodd-Frank legislation- with stress tests, and the review of living wills of banks in 2016

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Jorg Asmussen, senior member of the executive board of the ECB from Germany says in a speech in Hamburg; "The markets are pricing in a disintegration of the eurozone. Such systemic doubt is dramatic- and for the European Central Bank, unacceptable." He supports buying of bonds of member countries by the ECB. Both Asmussen and Jens Weidmann were economics students of former Bundesbank head, Axel Weber at the University of Bonn. Asmussen who is from the SPD party, was deputy finance minister and then nominated to the executive board of the ECB. Jens Wieidmann was an advisor to German chancellor Angela Merkel and was nominated to head the Bundesbank. Weidmann has continued the Bundesbank position opposing buying of sovereign bonds by the ECB, increasing the split in German opinion on this issue.