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Helen Gao provides this exceptional story of how 544,000 Chinese students studying abroad far from being success stories are facing stress, anxiety, depression to an unusual degree. About 329,000 of them are in the U.S. where the $50,000 to $60,000 college tuition cost is ten times the disposable income of a Chinese family. For working class families study abroad means using up savings. Researchers at Yale in a 2013 survey found 45 percent of Chinese students on campus had symptoms of depression, 29% had anxiety. This is similar to other universities in the U.S., Australia and Britain with large Chinese student populations. Language barriers and cultural barriers pose a problem particularly in student interactions with advisers and professors. Liberal arts studies emphasize critical thinking and other skills that are not found in a results oriented, memorization from note cards oriented system in China, creating academic stress. Worse what awaits students who return is not enough recognition for years spent studying in a different environment- about 80% of Chinese students from abroad earn a mere $1500 a month, according to a Beijing think tank Center for China and Globalization report done with a recruitment agency Zhilian Zhaopin. As she talks about the experience of other students from China, Gao describes her own anxiety attacks during 8 years of study in the U.S. Her father sent pictures after his first visit to the U.S. in 1995 says Gao, with words about how he wanted his daughter to see the U.S. with her own eyes, the beauty of the country and its spirit. Years later Helen Gao of Beijing sees a different America as she walks from one Harvard campus building to another in 2015 during her last year of graduate study, one that brings anxiety, financial insecurity, and uncertainty about the future.   ...

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The Bank of Japan's plans to buy 100 trillion yen of Japanese government debt in 2 years to fight deflation is having a positive effect on the eurozone economies. Japanese investors are buying eurozone sovereign debt. J.P. Morgan estimates the increase in investments for overseas bonds by Japanese investors in 2013 at 45 billion euros. This is lowering the yields on the sovereign bonds of France, Netherlands and Austria to record lows and lowering the yields of sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain. The 10 year yields on Italy's government bonds declined to 4.326%. Yields on 10 year Japanese government bonds was 0.514% on April 8, 2013.

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Exxon sells a 25% stake in the West Qurna-1 oil field near Basra, Iraq, to Sinopec. And a 10% stake to Pertamina. This field produces 510,000 barrels a day with potential for 3 million barrels a day. Exxon and Shell are heading the $50 billion project. The project is a service contract with the Iraqi government to develop the oil field. After the sale of the stake estimated at about $5 billion for a 10 year contract Exxon retains a 25% stake. Exxon is managing risk in the project after differences with the Iraqi government over its investments in the Kurdistan part of Iraq.

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Ireland went off the cliff by taking enormous unregulated loans. The banks lent money freely and the regulators simply ignored the bubble that was developing through the last decade. The speculators, developers, bankers and regulators all let the bubble reach astounding proportions. One developer got a $6.3 million loan on a personal guarantee without meeting his banker. One 1000 square foot Dublin carraige house went for 3 million euros in an auction. One of the developers, Simon Kelly, says that everything was funded by the Germans through the European Central Bank. The sale of the Jury's hotel in 2005 resulted in the amazing price of 60 to 70 million euros per acre. Ireland's GDP which was $25 billion in the 1980's, reached $267 billion in 2008. The boom that was initially based on export competitiveness and the low corporate tax rate combined with an educated English speaking workforce, was followed by a speculative boom in real estate financed by Irish banks, where regulators simply looked aside and placed no controls on lending. To get an idea how the government looked at anyone who raised a red flag, look at this quote from Bertie Ahern, prime minister of Ireland from 1997 to 2008, who said at a trade union conference: "sitting on the sidelines cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit sucide." And this coming from an Irish politician who helped in arranging the Irish peace accords with the help of Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. The risks of such uncontrolled speculation in real estate was lost on regulators, the government, and politicians. And the bankers stopped paying attention to their loans, with everyone wanting to lend money to 10-15 deveopers who were able to drive the market. The regulator at the central bank simply didn't pay much attention to the reports he received every quarter about the lending. Now the average household in Ireland owes 132,000 to the banks, according to David McWilliams of the Central Bank of Ireland, and unemployment is at 14%. If the Irish had completely lost track of the picture, what about the German and British banks that loaned money to Ireland? Why was money being made so freely available to Ireland. One Irishman says getting a mortgage in those days was like getting cupcakes. With prices haveing reached the stratosphere at 60 million euros an acre, were the European banks also pushing money into Ireland beyond the ability of a small country like Ireland to repay? According to the Bank for International Settlements based in Basel, Switzerland, Ireland owes $139 billion to German banks and $132 billion to British banks. Easy money was also available from US banks for countries such as Argentina which suffered similar crisis in prior decades. Banking crises ocurred in Asian countries in the 1980's. Much of this experience was lost in the manner German, British and other European banks loaned money to countries such as Iceland, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The Asian banking crises of the 1980's are being followed by European banking crises over two decades later. The ...

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Supply chains are unraveling in many industries with the tariffs imposed by president Trump on imports from China, and renegotiated trade deals with South Korea and other countries. The growth in the value of foreign value added was possible with cuts in tariffs in the period after 1990 and the emergence of China as a low cost manufacturer with cheap labor. Foreign value added increased from 20% in 1990 to 30% in 2011. The impact on factory towns and communities in the U.S. of trade in which the U.S. manufacturing declined as it shifted to China resulted in the surge in support for president Trump. The tariffs war with China is an effort to correct this imbalance. The result is a shift in supply chains away from China in some industries and gradual shift in others. Rising wages in China had already resulted in early shifts and the the environmental costs adding to this trend. President Trump temporarily suspended a threatened imposition of duties of 25% on $325 billion of Chinese imports. A renegotiated Nafta agreement with Mexico for automobile production and determination of U.S. based content and wages was designed to reset the relationship with Mexico and the auto supply chain for production in Mexico. A threat of tariffs on European auto imports to the U.S. is set for a decision in November. The trade dispute between Japan and South Korea and threat of tariffs also shows the effect this is having in other countries. With the U.S. looking at its own interest in the global supply chain and its advantage or disadvantage, industries and companies are not free to make decisions based on which country offers the best arrangement and deal for manufacturing. Notions of competitive advantage in the tech race with China are affecting the way the U.S. and European nations are acting. ...

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The WSJ cites several surveys showing Hillary Clinton's large lead among voters less than 35 years is declining. This is the reason WSJ says that the overall lead of Clinton among all voters has declined to about 2-4 points. In Michigan for example a Detroit Free Press survey showing a 24 point lead for Clinton declines to 7 points among voters under 35 years, and causes a overall 11 point lead to fall to 4 points. Some of the support has gone to third party candidate Gary Johnson. In the 2012 election president Obama won the votes of about 60% of voters under 30 years, an important part of Obama's coalition. Of the 66 million votes cast 22% were from voters under 30 years age. As a result First Lady Michelle Obama will campaign on a college campus in Virgina. Senator Bernie Sanders will also campaign to attract the younger voters that made his campaign so strong, and Elizabeth Warren will speak at two Ohio universities in coming days. Sanders will stress the importance of Clinton's proposal for debt free college and funding more programs with higher taxes on the wealthiest Americans, and ask young voters to look further than mere personality to what they can expect to improve the lives of students and young people. This is happening 6 weeks before the election. A look back at 2012 about 7 weeks prior to the election in Lyrarc shows Obama with a 6 point lead, but only even with Romney when it came to handling of the economy because of the long recession. This shows how each election presents its own different set of circumstances and challenges. ...

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Japan's energy efficient industry is a role model for the western world and for India and China. For years Japan has had a national consensus on consuming less energy an industry has focused on developing energy efficent technologies and investing in it even when oil prices were low. Japan wants to now contribute to the world in this area at the G8 summit on the island of Hokkaido. According to the International Energy Agency in Paris, Japan consumes half as much energy per dollar worth of economic activity as the European Union or the United States, and one-eighth as much as India or China in 2005. According to the Japanese Economic Ministry data corporate Japan has kept its energy consumption annually at a billion barrels of oil since the early 1970's even as the country's economy doubled in size during the 1970's and 1980's. The Japanese steel industry invested $45 billion dollars between 1972 to 2006 in developing energy saving technologies, according to the Japan Iron and Steel Federation. By capturing heat and gases that go into waste JFE Steel at its Keihin mill on Tokyo Bay uses it to power generators that produce 90% of the plant's electricity. The Japanese government is now pushing an initiative that sets Japan's level of energy conservation as targets of global industries. For instance the group leader of JFE's climate change policy group says that by adopting Japanese conservation technologies the global steel industry could reduce carbon emissions by 300 million tons a year. The sector approach advocated by Japan means setting the same numerical goals for all companies in an industry, regardless of location. At next week's summit meeting Japan willl back an initiative that sets its conservation induced energy levels as the new standards for global industries. This will also promote the sale and use of Japanese energy saving technologies around the world....

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Michelin has come up with a tire that improves braking distance and reduces rolling resistance on the tire. This "green" tire is now on the Peugeot 308 model car. It brakes 10 feet shorter than the previous generation tire and cuts carbondioxide emissions by 4 grams per kilometer, equal to a reduction of one metric ton of carbon dioxide during the life of the car. Michelin charges 10% more for this tire. All this is happening while tiremakers in the US which hasn't signed the Kyoto Protocol like the Europeans have, are trying to dissuade Congress and the states from passing new legislation or adding to the current energy legislation to mandate fuel efficiency standards for tires. One of the US tiremakers arguments is that it would create safety problems by increasing braking distance. Which can't be very convincing if Michelin already has the technology. The Japanese tiremakers like Bridgestone also are trying to develop new technologies to come up with better more fuel efficient tires. As this happens will this put US tiremakers behind and give a competitive advantage to the European and Japanese tiremakers? Note that a study in 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences in the USA estimated that about 2 billion gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel could be saved each year in the US by reducing rolling resistance of the tires by 10%. This was estimated to be the equivalent of taking 4 million cars and light trucks off the road. Other studies on the cost side show that the increase in production costs in Europe for reducing rolling resistance of tires comes to about 20 to 30 euros. Add to the 2 billion gallons of gasoline saved in the US the amount saved in Europe and Asia and you have a substantial saving. Add increases in air conditioning efficiency, increases in fuel efficiency of automobiles, and you have significant reductions in demand over the next 5 years and even more over next 10 years. How will this affect gasoline demand and prices? ...

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With a loss of $8.7 billion in the second quarter of 2008 Ford now moves to transform its production operations to make small carslike the Focus, and the Fiesta and to smaller cars in general converting existing truck and SUV plants to make cars. It will not be till early 2010 that therse new cars some of them from Europe where Ford has success with making a decent profit on smaller cars and has a number of models that are popular there.

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The NYT editorial on December 5 the day after the second effort by the automakers to present a case for a bailout loan, this time for $34 billion. The NYT says this time the automakers CEO's left 2 things behind in Detroit. One is their resignations, and other is plans to truly achieve the fuel efficiency gains possible comparable to what the European Union is aiming for, which is 50 miles per gallon in 2015. Instead the congress enacted under the influence of automaker lobbying groups a watered down fuel efficiency bill according to NYT, of 35 miles per gallon by 2020. It says experts believe that 43mpg could be achieved by then (2020) even without any technological breakthroughs and 50mpg could be achieved by making smaller cars. Only new management says the NYT could bring the deep cultural change needed for the industry in Detroit.

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A look at the graph showing inflation adjusted GDP growth in the South African apartheid years of 1980-1994, show GDP declines in 6 of the 14 years, with 3 years of decline in the last 5 years of apartheid rule. Which shows that the economy was suffering from a combination of world sanctions and the war with the African National Congress to defend apartheid. In 1996 an agreement was reached with the ANC to transfer power and end apartheid in South Africa. Some of the pressures against apartheid came from the business community's perceived interest in maintaining growth. This has been borne out by the graph showing the inflation adjusted growth in the years of ANC rule starting in 1995, which show a striking difference with growth between 4-6% for 1995-2008, high growth rates for 13 of 14 years, and slight decline in only one year 1998. This bears out the policy of business and a democratically elected government with respect for minority rights, and black-white-colored and tribal loyalties being reconciled to goals of economic growth and democracy. For two years Nelson Mandela head of the ANC maintained continuity in economic policies by retaining the white finance minister from the previous apartheid government. In 1996 Trevor Manuel who had little economic experience- who worked as an activist to organize protests against high bus fares and rents under apartheid governments- was made finance minister. He has been finance minister now for 13 years, and only resigned when President Mbeki resigned after losing the leadership election of the ANC. In the early years he controlled government spending to pay off South Africa's tremendous debt. He brought down inflation and built up foreign reserves. After the election of Jacob Zuma, another ANC veteran, supported by young black people, in September 2008, and his likely win in the current election, it appears that Zuma will retain Trevor Manuel. This ensures continuity in the face of the global recession, especially hitting commodity producers like South Africa. South Africa compares favorably with Nigeria in economic growth and modernization, spread of mobile phones, computers, literacy rates, but suffers from high unemployment, and low life expectancy. Pressures are increasing to do more for unemployment, address the crumbling infrastructure, and provide more help to the poor. Zuma has the support of the unions known as Cosatu and the Communist party, and of young blacks, in a country where one third of the population is under 15 years of age and over 40% of the population has mobile phones. South Africa has the largest economy in South Africa, is larger in land mass than Nigeria, has about 45 million people - a third of the population of Nigeria with 127 million population which has fertility rate of 5.6 twice that of South Africa- and GDP of 213 billion compared to $72 billion for Nigeria. Literacy rates are 82% for S. Africa and 68% for Nigeria, showing that higher literacy rates are lowering fertility rates and population growth. The figures are from the 2007 Economist pocketbook World in Figures. A strong press and media provides check on corruption which siphons away development funds in the public sector in commodity dependent countries like Nigeria. The private sector controls commodity exports of South Africa. So even with the relative lack neglect of the poor and unemployed in South Africa, and of health care, South Africa has done better overall than Nigeria. Average annual inflation was 5.1% in South Africa, compared to 15.7% in Nigeria, and this hits the poor the hardest. It goes to show that when it comes to modernization it helps to be inclusive, reconciliation oriented, and bring together all the resources of the country including a vigorous press and media, and business, regardless of color, race, creeds, faith, tribe or caste....

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Anat Admati, is a professor of finance and economics at Stanford University School of Business. He says banks should depend on generating 30% of their assets from equity, something the banking industry of today in the U.S. and Europe considers heretical. More of the bank's assets should come from equity and much less from borrowed funds. Outside of banking healthy corporations in the U.S. carry debt at about 70% of assets and there is no reason banks should not do the same. In 2013 says Admati, the situation is not much different from that after the 2008 global financial crisis- large banks carry liabilities and debt at over 90% of their assets. The $2.2 trillion in debt at JP Morgan Chase bank is about 91% of assets of $2.4 trillion. Basel III regulations allow banks to borrow upto 95% of assets, and proposed banking regulations in the U.S. put this at 95%, with the way this is measured still being debated. At such high levels of debt the margin of error is small, and systemic risk which is high in a globally interconnected banking system means the whole banking system can freeze from one large bank going into failure such as Lehman Brothers. This happened in 2008 and the margin of error is still small, which is why global banking is such a high wire act with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the ECB and other central banks issuing regular warnings and regulators faced with the task of keeping the banking system in check through vigilance and investigations of banks violating laws. How much difference has Dodd-Frank legislation in the U.S. made after 2008? Jason from Atlanta says in response to Admati's article, that the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 was 37 pages and the banking system did not freeze up in the way it did in 2008 for the rest of the twentieth century until its repeal. The 879 page Dodd-Frank legislation of 2011 is overly voluminous and still leaves 243 rules to be written by regulators in consultation with the financial industry. Banks are larger now than they were in 2008 and have an outsized influence in shaping the rules, leaving the U.S. Federal Reserve's supervisory committee and Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo with the job of somehow keeping banks out of trouble. JP Morgan Chase, Admati reminds readers, has $2.4 trillion in assets as of June 30, 2013, and debts of $2.2 trillion, with $1.2 trillon in deposits and $ 1 trillion in other debt owed to money market funds, other banks, bondholders and the like. ...

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AT&T, Colgate-Palmolive, Medtronic and Nucor are added to the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index. Companies on this index have raised their dividend payouts for over 25 years. AT&T is the largest dividend payer in the world, paying about $10.2 billion with a yield of 5.9%.

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The authors of this op-ed cite Federal Reserve Bank of New York studies that show ony 56% of borrowers of student loans from the government are making payments. The U.S. government does not correctly reflect its liabilities on these loans by treating all the loans as an asset.

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Machine tool orders of Japanese companies declined by 62% in November over a year ago, according to the Japan Machine Tool Builder's Association. Its like riding a roller coaster barrelling down from its highest peak said Mori, the President of machine tool maker from Nagoya, Mori Seiki Company.

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The U.S. Senate votes 92-2 in near unanimity to pass a bill on opioid addiction, for prevention, treatment and recovery. This comes as the U.S. faces a opioid addiction crisis in 2016. It increases funding by 47% for the efforts, with funding approval to be voted on separately.

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Leonhardt points out a couple of problems with Paul Ryan's budget proposal for Medicare. He says Medicare recipients, with the exception of the very affluent, currently haven't paid enough for the benefits they receive. He cites a study that shows Medicare pays out several hundreds of thousands of dollars for the average retiree more than they ever paid in. Medicare funds go for hospital expenses, the rest for doctors bills come from general government revenues. Government borrowing increasing the national debt to unsustainable levels so that current retirees do not have to pay higher taxes, is simply shifting the burden to the next generation. He says the Ryan plan shields those who will retire in the next 10 years because they are a powerful voting bloc, making this more of a political calculation than a bold reform step, as this means younger people will have to bear a disproportionate share of the burden. The other part of Ryan's calculus is that it has proven extremely difficult to reduce the volume of medical care that is consumed in terms of tests, lack of preventive care leading to graver problems, and surgeries. Simply by shifting a larger share of the cost to future retirees this will have an effect on the volume of medical care consumed and put a lid on costs. This is something that needs to happen says Leonhardt, but at the same time all Americans need to share in the higher taxes that are necessary to fund Medicare, exempting 75 million Americans only creates an imbalance in contributions. The other problem with this is that the costs of this exempted group will postpone serious deficit reduction for ten years....

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Lane Florsheim's interview with Melinda Gates.  Melinda Gates is reinventing herself at age 60 years. Born in the 1960's  and as part of the Gates foundation she now faces both the opportunity and the challenges ahead of her new effort with The Pivotal foundation, which replaces the effort she made at Gates, the launch of a new book to share her experiences with panic attacks and coming to terms with her own inner voice that said start over.  Here she describes her life in Seattle that starts with a cup of coffee at 6.30, and a chance for reflection in the early mornig hours. She goes out for a walk by 7.00 with three trusted friends she has gone out for walks for 20 years. Melinda describes her new life with her love of kayaking and her chance to do this without being recognized in Seattle. Her three children and her grandchildren live in the East coast. She likes poetry and instead of the frequent travel abroad in her first life, in this second life she can devote time to her passion for making life easier and better for women. She describes meeting women in Louisiana and other states and seeking solutions for better women's health and mental health. She has an objective view of the times, and faith in American democracy, and her new role in the discussions as her own self as a woman. ...

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Fairclough describes the experience of Poland inside the EU, but with its own currency, the zloty. Poland's per capita GDP measured by purchasing power was half the EU average in 2006, it is about two thirds in 2011. Growth is expected at 4% for 2011. Poland manufactures goods using lower to medium technological inputs, such as furniture, shoes, and processed foods. The zloty has declined in value by 25% since 2008. This gives Poland a competitive edge in exports. Additonal factors are cited by one manufacturer of furniture, Forte Manufacturing, as helping it remain competitive- ability to close one of five plants, investing in improved machinery to increase productivity, quality and just-in-time deliveries, computer guided machinery, and ability to run his plants on weekends. Central bank governor, Mr. Belka, points to competitiveness as a critical factor for comfort in the eurozone. Limiting budget deficits to 3% of GDP, and the Maastricht criteria isn't all it takes. Also needed is modernizing and improving the economy, and modernizing the banking sector, says Belka. Poland does not have the debt problems of some eurozone countries because of a constitutional limit on government borrowing and deficits. Belka says Poland benefits from having its own monetary policy, ability to adjust interest rates, the zloty able to depreciate against the euro, and not having to share in cost of bailouts. There is considerable opposition in neighboring Slovakia for having to bear the cost of bailouts. Recent surveys show declining support for adopting the euro in Poland- a Sept 2011 poll showed support at 29% compared to 38% in mid-2010, opposition increased from 47% to 53%, in a poll conducted by the Polish Finance Ministry. Risks for Poland are that 75% of the country's banking assets are owned by foreign financial firms, and the potential for a spread of the eurozone slowdown with lower demand. ...

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Problems with the CSeries project at Bombardier include cost overruns, and development problems delaying the first model from late 2013 delivery by 2 years. A Swedish carrier dropped out as a customer in August 2014. The effort to compete directly with Boeing and Airbus in larger planes was a risky move as the larger competitors are improving fuel efficiency and reducing prices. Bombardier, suppliers, and the governments of UK and Canada have increased the investment in the CSeries project from $3.4 billion to $4.4 billion. Bombardier's total aerospace sales are $9.39 billion. The project was started by Mr. Beaudoin, grandson of the founder and currently the CEO, when he headed the aerospace division in 2004. It started as an effort to tackle slowing sales by building a new passenger aircraft with 125-160 seats that was 20% more fuel efficient than existing aircraft using engines built by Pratt & Whitney. The competing versions in this market segment were the Airbus 320 and the Boeing 737. Airbus and Boeing responded by putting more fuel efficient engines on the existing A320 and the 737 instead of developing whole new models, something Bombardier had not expected. In Dec. 2010 Airbus launched the A320 neo line, single aisle jets with 124 to 240 seat capacity, promising 15% more efficiency using the same Pratt engine to be used on the CSeries. In 2011 Boing came up with the 737 Max line. Because these are a bit larger than the CSeries is a plus for airlines. Analysts say about 75% of the market is taken as airlines have placed large orders for the A320 neo and the 737 Max. With the CSeries Bombardier is now betting the company that the new aircraft will attract buyers....

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The plan to prevent foreclosures in Minnesota is supported by the state's Democrat- Farmer-Labor party which has a majority in the legislatre. The Republican Governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty is mentioned as running mate to McCain and he will be criticized in the election if he vetoes the bill. A 39% increase in foreclosures is expected for 2008 by Housing Link, a Minnesota nonprofit research group. with about 28,000 households affected. CEO of Toll Brothers, a luxury builder rates Minnesota a F- in assessment of regional housing markets. So what will this bill do? Under the foreclosure deferment plan loans closed from January 1, 2001 through August 1, 2007, when antipredatory lending law took effect would be eligible. Borrowers must be legal U.S. residents and have adjusted household gross incomes of less than $250,000. Second home are not covered. During the deferment period borrowers keep paying a portion of their mortgages. This is set at either the monthly payment of principal and interest when the loan was originated, or 65% of the monthly payment at the time of default, whichever is less. Rep Matsui of California introduced a similar bill in the House of Representatives May 13, 2008. Because the bill limits the benefit to those who are needy and worst affected it would appear to be a sensible approach. At this time there are so many proposals but with little Republican support and a public opinion that sees this as moral hazard or rewarding people for their mistakes with public money, there is little to help the most needy and deserving borrowers for whom a good case can be made for help on a bipartisan basis and with support of the public....