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Both Democratic and Republican parties have been tarnished as both parties have about 10% more negative sentiment than positive, says this report in the WSJ. Mr. Trump gets more support for fighting the establishment and for the economy. The Republican base is equally energized at the time of its convention. Among white voters who make up about 70% of the electorate Mr. Trump has improved significantly since 2016, and is better with Hispanics today, and with voters who have not made up their mind. 

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A fascinating look in DW.com at pictures of an iceberg 158 kilometres long and 48 kilometres wide, on its way to hit the British territory of South Georgia in the South Atlantic. The island of South Georgia is known for large populations of penguins and seals, albatrosses, and humpback as well as blue whales. Prior to its splitting up the iceberg was even larger about the size of Luxembourg. The iceberg is a few hundred metres thick. The iceberg has already travelled for 1600 kilometres, and will reach South Georgia in 10-20 days.

Antarctica is the most southern region in the world, with 99% covered with ice some 5000 metres thick, 1.3 times size of Europe. Lowest temperature at -99 degrees centigrade, windspeeds can reach 155 mph. On it there are 4000 scientists in summer on research stations of 30 countries.

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Hard liners in the Iranian parliament include Hamid Rasaee and Ali Taheri, and other members from the days of president Ahamdinejad. In the media this includes Hosssein Shariatmadari, editor of newspaper Kayhan. They oppose any concessions in nuclear negotiations by Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, and any cooperation with the U.S. on issues related to Syria and Iraq. As negotiations face another deadline of March 25, 2015, Israel and the U.S. Congress are pushing for a ratcheting up of sanctions, while the Obama administration seeks more time to complete negotiations. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamanei has urged conservative critics to avoid discussion of negotiations, also setting low expectations for settlement.

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At a time of high inflation and food scarcity, the chancellor Rishi Sunak's wife's non-dom status breaches no law but sends a divisive social message, says this opinion in The Guardian. This is also because taxes are the only way for governments- whether Tory or Labor it is the same for all- to fund social benefits, social infrastructure and physical infrastructure, on which the real quality of all of our lives ultimately depends.

 

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German chancellor Merkel is interviewed by DW.com's Max Hofmann as her 16 year period as Germany's leader comes to a close. She discusses immigration to Germany, climate change and other issues. Not discussed are the issues of neglect of infrastructure and failure in preserving upward mobility in Germany society during that period. She is described as a "compromise machine," which she refutes by saying "I'm not a machine, of course, but... a human being." Through compromise she was able to extend the Christian Democrats hold on power for this long. Yet for much of the time she kept the Social Democrats, who were lacking in conviction at the time for real upward mobility, out of power; by compromises that meant she would do just so much not enough on social values. In the end her party the CDU fell to a low of about 22% support of Germans in the 2021 election. The Greens with more conviction and the Social Democrats surpassed the CDU under Baerbock and vice chancellor Scholz. Her achievements came reluctantly in the end in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. This time she put all her convictions and support behind the German and European Union financial package for trillions of euros of support that would enable Europe to get back on its feet after the pandemic's devastation. This may be her singular achievement, long after everything else is forgotten. Yet not one word of this interview talks about this achievement made with the full conviction of both Scholz and Merkel. Scholz and Baerbock will lead a new Social Democrat+ Greens coalition that will finally rebuild Germany along new lines on pillars of social mobility, infrastructure building, and climate change action for the New Germany. Baerbock is just 40 years, and Germany now moves to be run by a new generation so unlike the last in conviction and vision, and more in line with the vision and aspirations after World War II. With both Willy Brandt's vision of the Social Democrats, and the vision of Konrad Adenauer of the Christian Democrats, now carried forward with the help of the Greens Baerbock and the young generation of Germans. ...

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The World Vaccine Summit raises about $7 billion to immunize about 300 million children for polio, diphtheria and measles, over 5 years. Prime minister Boris Johnson who opened the summit called it "the greatest shared endeavour of our times." Bill Gates donated $1.6 billion and Britain pledged 1.65 billion pounds over 5 years, making Britain the largest donor. Mr. Trump also addressed the summit in virtual manner- "we will work hard, we will work strong... good luck, let's get the answer." Mr. Johnson called for renewing "the collective resolve."  Specifically he stated: " Just as we have great military alliances like NATO.... where countries collaborate on building their collective military defence, so we now need that sam spirit of collaboration and collective defense agains the common enemy of disease." Referring to failure of early warning systems for coronavirus with crucial weeks between Jan 6 to Feb 16 lost for the West with lack of international cooperation- "It will require a new international effort to cooperate on the surveillance and sharing of information- data is king- that can underpin a global alert system, so we can rapidly identify any future outbreak. And that will mean a rapid scale-up of our global capacity to respond."  ...

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The Nixon Mao meeting of 1972 now seems a very long time ago. Little is mentioned here in this WSJ report on what was happening inside China in 1972. The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution had severely divided the Communist Party. This was followed by the Lin Piao episode in which the defense minister clashed with Mao leading to a complete loss of confidence in the stability of the leadership. China sought the meeting and Chou-en-lai, premier and Mao's minister for foreign relations, was eager to seek a new relationship with the US. The period 1960-1970 had pushed China back 10-20 years in its effort to develop an industrial economy.  The event is presented as one in which the two countries were meeting at the same level after the Korean War, which was not the case. This report says it was the $3 trillion in US and foreign investment that helped an economy the size of India in 1972 to emerge into what it is today, much larger than India. This report goes on to cite Foreign Affairs and other authors who write that Mr. Kissinger and Mr Nixon saw this as a self-promotional event in contrast to the situation Chou-en-lai, the Chinese premier faced during that difficult time in China's history. ...

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About 18,000 people in 134 countries were surveyed by Hubbub, a international group, based at Durham University. The survey found men and women need 5 to 6 hours of rest doing activities in which they are alone- doing things which they find restful which can vary by person. The survey shows the people who are rested do better on a well being scale. These activities include watching television, doing hobbies, gardening, taking a jog or a walk, reading, listening to music. The rhythms of work, of how we use time, also affect our well being. The most problematic thing is the notion that somehow when we rest or take some time to do restful activities we are lazy, say the authors of the study. Of the activities reading came first, then being in a natural environment, being on one's own, listening to music, and doing nothing in particular. About two thirds of people feel they were not getting enough rest. Interestingly the wellbeing gradually decreases when it is over 6 hours- so it is something like engagement in life combined with periodic rest periods that produces good results.  And the fading boundary between rest periods alone and work because of cell phones and other devices is not a positive. ...

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For eight long years for event after event, rally after rally, and debate after debate the US journalism community failed over and over again to correct misstatements and wild exaggeration made by the first candidate and then former president Trump. David Muir and Linsey Davis maybe remembered in history for setting the record straight for the first time in 9 long years as they corrected every false statement or exaggeration in the Pittsburgh Harris Trump television debate. NYT reports Trump stated that a governor had supported killing of babies. Linsey Davis- “There is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it’s born.”  Trump painted a portrait of an America besieged by migrant crime. David Muir- “As you know, the F.B.I. says overall violent crime is coming down in this country.” Time and again during the debate Linsey Davis and David Muir corrected misstatement of facts. Something amazingly- and a huge comment on the way reporting has been practiced in America on its very real problems and opportunity, on its frustrations and its possibilities- that amazingly had never happened till September 10 in Pittsburgh. Global literacy, cultural literacy in America, can only grow and thrive when statements are made by correct observation as in a society based on science and technology. ...

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The Social Democrats leader Sigmar Gabriel is Economics Minister in the coalition government of Angela Merkel in Germany. He is sympathetic to French premier Manuel Valls effort to reduce austerity in the 2015 French budget now being reviewed by Brussels. Here he takes the initiative to call for discussion on the issue of growth and austerity facing the European Union, by joining French Economics minister Emmanuel Macron in asking two economists Pisani-Ferry and Enderlein at the Berlin Institute of Governance for advice on generating growth. The process started in late summer with the defeat of the centre right government in Sweden which supported Merkel's strict austerity policies for balanced budgets. The elections to the European parliament showed the dire situation facing Cameron in Britain and Hollande in France with the unpopularity of austerity policies, higher taxes and cutbacks. The Socialist Hollande government has the lowest public opinion ratings of any postwar government in France, at 18%, and it is unwilling to go further down the road with austerity. At the same time Valls has found a partner in Italy with the growing popularity of Matteo Renzi in Italy who won 40% of the vote in Italy for the EU parliamentary elections of 2014. ECB president Mario Draghi, has generated the debate by saying at a October 2014 Brookings Institution conference in Washington D.C. that countries that have fiscal space (referring to Germany) should use it. He added that governments that did not take action in the economic crisis facing the eurozone of no growth will be swept away by public opinion. IMF president Lagarde, a former French Finance Minister under Sarkozy, has also questioned policy of strict austerity. For the first time since the start of the eurozone crisis in 2010 there is an opportunity for open discussion on future policies for renewal in the eurozone....

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Kirsty Lang talks about the government failures in not investing in the British Council. Her husband Misha Glenny, 63 years, the writer and producer of the BBC 4 series How to Invent a Country, took a British Council scholarship to study in Prague at the age of 21. The neglect of British Council is happening at the same time that Germany is rejuvenating the Goethe Institut with new leadership and making it an instrument of cultural and educational exchange with Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This needs to happen with the British Council. People in these countries look for cultural and educational exchange with Europe and America through these institutions of culture and education. The libraries of these institutions perform an invaluable role. Long forgotten is the role these institutions including the US Information Service played in Asia, Africa and Latin America in the period after World War II, long before Misha Glenny's time. There is eagerness, even a hunger to learn about other countries in the young minds of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and this makes for a two way exchange that helps Europe and America learn about these countries- the way the Goethe Insitut is now setting as a new model for the future.      ...

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Without human consciousness Ai's simply lack the vital elements of what makes us human. So called intelligent behaviours don't amount to much in this the most important aspect of our behaviours that makes us human in the way we have evolved over long periods of time. A recent Japanese movie showed how even the creators of AI that runs things in a futuristic Japan find themselves trapped in an AI run society, and how AI fails Japanese society.

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This WSJ editorial raises serious concerns about the outlines of the nuclear deal with Iran- the AP Protocol does not provide for any time, any place inspections of nuclear facilities, could Iran evade inspections by developing a new facility such as it did with the Fordo complex underground after 2006. After all it reminds readers that Iran signed nuclear protocol agreements in 2003, but failed to observe them, and set them aside altogether after 2006. And Iran is not like reaching an agreement with Costa Rica or Netherlands, says WSJ, it could look good on paper, but with monitoring weak and the Iranian intentions not clear, a lot can go wrong. One of the principal concerns says the WSJ, is the nuclear weapons technologies spreading in the Middle East to other countries as Iran gets a weapon, leading to a disastrous war a decade from now. It says this is why president Obama's response to criticism that its this or war is not enough. A lot of the details says WSJ, have still to be worked out....

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Exxon is looking for a big oil dealer in the shale patch in the US. It is considering the acquisition of shale company Pioneer Natural Resources with a market cap of $49 billion. Exxon wants to make use of its windfall profits of the last year to good use. An acquisition of Dallas based Pioneer would give Exxon a dominant position in the West Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico. Exxon made windfall profits of $56 billion in 2022 after the jump in oil prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Based in Irving, Texas, it is heavily invested in fossil fuel assets and its thinking is that fossil fuels are here for a long time as it has not made a significant shift to renewable energy. During the cutoff of Russian oil supplies Europe has depended on LNG supplies from the US and Qatar, and on Norway for increased oil and gas supplies. President Biden included drilling concessions in some of the legislation passed in Congress and Conoco plans to drill in Alaska. The transitional period has gained support in places like the US and Norway following the need to support the European Union and Germany in the crisis. This gives oil companies some time to sort out their future plans for renewable investments. ...

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Writing your own narrative when it comes to failures at work is suggested by experts. In the second of a series of Podcasts on How we Work the WSJ looks at failures at work and how they are processed in people's minds. Failures can be seen as experiences that teach, lessons that can be learned from failures so that one can do better next time. In this podcast WSJ gives an interview with Minh Lee, author of Pachinko. The first line of the book is "History has failed us. It doesn't matter." Asked to explain she says the way history is written it simply has winners and losers, but for ordinary people this does not matter as they go on with their lives and try to make the best of things. She also talks about recognition and how important it is. Minh says leaning into ones competence is an easy way to become impervious to failures. It is only when one goes out of one's competence does one experience what is called failure but is really an effort, one effort in a series of efforts, an effort that teaches one lessons that one can apply in the next effort which puts one in a position to gain better results. It is a process of continuous improvement in which one is readily trying new things. Now compare this with one leaning into one's competence and not experiencing what is called failure, yet at the same time not having tried anything new and exciting or feeling the thrill of adventure. Just to take Minh Lee's line one step further. Civilizations fail. How? When a people or society is losing its sense of adventure and severely censors and restricts trying new things you have the absence of a Renaissance. The Renaissance in Europe put it way ahead of Asia, with observation and experimenting above theory and textbooks, and set it up for the Industrial Revolution which started in England. By this time civilizations that never adventured on the seas, never adventured out of their little line of known competence, the civilizations on the Ganges in India and the Yangste in China failed and collapsed. So there are larger lessons to be learned and this also tells us that a lot more is at stake than one's own individual so called failures and so called successes at Work, and in the adventure of life. One ignores so called failure in first efforts because this is what the Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution has taught us to keep trying new things till they work, and to patiently work through these efforts which may take some time, as all good work is arduous and filled with endeavours. In the oceanic adventures of Spain and Britain that discovered  America and Australia there were were difficult voyages that set the path open to those that followed. Captain Cook discovered Australia in his ship "Endeavour" in this way, opening the way to the settlement of a continent. He led the scientific mission for the British Navy on a voyage that lasted 3 years 1770 to 1773 when he returned to Dover from Botany Bay on the Australian mainland.   ...

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U.S. Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen, says the Fed will be prepared to respond to the "twists and turns" in the recovering U.S. economy in 2014-2015. In many ways Yellen finds the recovery "disappointingly slow and consistent expectations for a pickup in growth dashed over a number of years." She sees the labor market behaving in "some perplexing ways and showing patterns that are novel." The high rate of long term unemployed is an abiding concern and Yellen says a healthy job market is "more than 2 years away." This clarifies remarks made at her first press conference, which were interpreted to mean the Fed would raise rates in a much shorter time frame. U.S. stock markets responded favorably to her remarks after declines and volatility over several weeks following the previous press conference.

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This Journal editorial looks into the jobs numbers for September 2012 that showed unemployment decreasing to 7.8% according to the household survey. By taking the numbers as they are in the Labor Dept. surveys and setting aside skepticism it provides useful insights into the condition of the labor market. It cites the reason for some of the skepticism about the numbers- the 873,000 jump in employment shown by the household survey which looks at 60,000 households. It is the largest increase in employment for one month in 30 years says the Journal. The household survey finds that 582,000 of the 873,000 jobs are "part-time for economic reasons" in the survey's words. The number of part-time workers for economic reasons went up from 7.7 million in March 2012 to 8.6 million in September 2012. This also returns the focus on U-6 the measure of unemployment that Fed chairman Bernanke and experts looks at. This has remained the same for Sept. at 14.7% and includes the number of people working part-time who cannot find full time work. Another useful statistic for insight into the labor market is the decline in household incomes. Studies of Census data show a $4019 decline in median household income from Jan 2009 to June 2012. And the long term unemployed represent about 40.7% of the employed in recent data, an unusually high number that worries Mr. Bernanke. By looking at the broader picture one can get a better sense of the labor market....

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WSJ's Greg Ip points out the realities on the ground for housing inflation- Austin 11% higher prices for housing 2020-2024, for NYC 20%, supply up 17% in Austin NYC only 3%. Austin avoided rent control route in elections even when prices were up 23% in 1 year, rent control freeze is not allowed in Texas. Prices eventually dropped as supply increased. This is a warning sign for NYC primary winner Mamdani's rent freeze and rent control in NYC. This is not to say that landlords have to get their act together and fix homes, and moderate pricing. It is to say that the supply of housing matters and adding supply to housing as the British Labor government is doing in Britain under a socialist/private enterprise oriented government matters. For this to happen a comprehensive policy is needed cutting time to build reducing permit times, and incentivising builders, as well as cutting costs, and building affordable housing. It is a reflection of the degree of desperation that New Yorkers- created by the same educated and the professional workers among them, the rich and the elites- that the vast number of young college educated people are now pushing free buses, rent freeze, and city run grocery stores. And so little discussion is taking place on the comprehensive plan to increase supply of housing and building the new infrastructure in a city where roads and pavements, whole neighborhood infrastructures are crumbling as in Brooklyn. So little discussion on creating a rising tide that lifts all boats. ...

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The FBI and the IRS were working on the same investigation of FIFA from different directions and began working together since Dec. 2011, as they found that the same people were involved. Richard Weber of the IRS, says another round of indictments can be expected. The IRS case starts with investigation into tax fraud and one discovery leads to another in the case. By 2013 Chuck Blazer had pleaded guilty to tax and corruption charges and agreed to cooperate with the IRS and the FBI, leading to the breakthroughs that followed. Enhanced cooperation between the Justice Department and international banks since the indictments against banks for illicit operations has made banks willing to cooperate with investigations fully. Once the case was built up getting FIFA officials at one place for the meeting in Zurich made it easier to make the arrests.

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A tropical cyclone hits large parts of Mozambique and other Southern African countries destroying electricity and communication grids. It shows that climate change and rapid urbanization can hit these countries at the same time. The Red Cross says 90% of the city of Beira with population of 600,000 has been destroyed. Wind speeds were upto 105 miles per hour.

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The increasing use of millet grains to substitute for wheat and rice is good for India as it copes with climate change. Millet grains are more resilient in the current heat waves that will continue for some time. Millet grains are also better from a nutritional perspective. The entire chain, planting season timing, irrigation and fertilization of crops, need to be researched and the research used to prepare for climate change with new agricultural practices, say experts. Nutri cereals such as jowar, raagi, bajra, have the physiology to be resilient and have lower water demands, higher tolerance for coarse soils and heat, says a professor of ecology at Columbia University. The UN has declared 2023 as the Year of Millets and PM Modi has also launched a campaign for greater use of Millet grains. Millet grains have a high level of iron, fiber and certain vitamins.  With obesity increasing in all countries  after the world moved away from these Millet grains and other ancient grains the time has come for a return to the more nutritious grains of the past. Only one or two generations ago in our families history these Millet grains and ancient grains were used widely resulting in better health and fewer of todays medical conditions. ...

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Gerard Baker of the WSJ writes about not getting involved in unnecessary wars and prudent interventions where necessary. He does not bring up the nuclear issue which is the only issue this war was about- is that a prudent intervention where necessary? The other issue is what the Anglo-Saxon,Saxon world and the Europeans think and feel about the Jewish state after the experience deeply unsettling  of World War II for western civilization itself. Throughout 2026 in Britain, UK, Australia and Canada, and in the  European Union, the people have stood by the Jewish people and the Jewish state while also respecting the rights of Palestinian people. Iran's hostility towards the Jewish state, to its elimination, is the reason for the conflict. Is prudent intervention necessary for the US in this context and what is the Anglo-Saxon and European attitude to defending western civilizations thoughts and sentiment?  What does a nuclear weapons state do to the situation in the Middle East- the Arab states and Israel? This is the main reason for the US involvement even as it is committed to no unnecessary wars. A naval blockade during Iranian closure of the Straits is not an escalation, the US did not bomb Kharg Island only imposed a naval blockade. The US is able to sustain this kind of blockade for a long period as it showed in Venezuela and shows in its backyard in Latin American particularly where it is essential that the US stop all drug smuggling on the seas. The Editorial Board of the WSJ has sent warnings to the DJT administration that it would be a mistake to not address the nuclear issue now and to separate it to a subsequent stage as mediators Pakistan and Turkey have arranged for reasons that are not in the US interest- because that would leave Iran to renege on promises and go for nuclear weapons  third time and repeat the failures of the Obama administration. It can be noted that the WSJ reflects the views of the business community in the US which is thoughtful and not prone to overreach or US interventions. Baker is not part of it after resigning as Editor in Chief in 2018. Yet the members of the Board include- Henninger, McGurn, Strassel, Riley, Finley, Noonan, Taranto, O'Grady, Jenkins and many others. It is unlikely that all of these members would have a drastic and strongly interventionist attitude. ...

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President Trump tells Mexico to either slow the increasing flow of migrants from Guatemala or face higher tariffs on Mexico's exports to the U.S. For the first time in recent decades Trump uses tariffs as a tool of diplomacy to reverse policies of countries with which it is in an unfavorable position. For the first time Trump uses negotiations to convey America's position that when it comes to some issues such as migration or trade because of the slippage in America's middle class incomes the U.S. should be considered as the same as a developing country. So that no preference should be given to other countries to the detriment of people in the U.S. when it comes to jobs, incomes, and funding for social services. Mexico a developing country could no longer insist that Guatemalans should not find a home in Mexico just because it was a developing country, if its policies supported the flow of migrants from Guatemala to the U.S. as in the case of Mexican president Lopez Obrador.   ...

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The SUNY public university system is giving each student $2000 in aid to reduce college dropout. It is using simple approaches that include transportation money, and other aid to keep students from dropping out. It is called Accelerated Study in Associate Programs that has doubled graduation rates at the City University of New York since 2007. it provides textbook fees, transportation stipends, academic advisement, free tutoring, tution funds. In return the students commit to full time study and meet with their advisors regularly.