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This editorial in the WSJ points to Bernie Sanders 15% lead over Donald Trump in a Jan. 2016 WSJ/NBC poll- with Hillary Clinton having a 10 point lead- as proof that Sanders should be taken seriously. It says that electability of Sanders is no longer an issue, especially because the 2016 election is coming up with many surprises, including a changed election environment. Other possibilities raised in the editorial- the possibility that an independent like Bloomberg might run if Trump is nominated, further increasing the chance for Sanders to be elected president. By splitting the Republican party a Trump or Cruz nomination could also put the House in jeopardy for the Republicans, removing the House as a check if a Democrat is elected president.

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Glenn Hubbard is Columbia University's Business School dean. He is also a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. Hubbard came under criticism in "Inside Job," a 2010 documentary about the financial crisis for reported connections with financial services firms. Here he talks to the Wall Street Journal's Melissa Korn on the ways in which Columbia is changing its business school programs to ensure interdisciplinary learning. Hubbard thinks a broader education is needed, not just expertise in a particular area, for today's students turning into the business leaders of tomorrow. One of the big changes today is that a student today may have significant responsibilities and leadership position in a shorter period 5-10 years. Earlier generations of business leaders had a much longer period before they assumed such responsibilities. This makes it even more important for a business student to have a broader education and have broader perspective. In the next ten years Hubbard sees two major changes- continued globalization, and the reshaping of major industries such as financial services. This will require students to have a broader grasp of the changes that will be taking place, which cannot come from merely having expertise in a particular field. He says this kind of education will be needed for business decisionmakers to be capable of preventing a broader economic meltdown. Hubbard believes ethics courses simply marginalize the subject, when in reality ethics and doing the right thing is woven into everything that happens, decisions that take place in so many ways and places, and often over many years. For this reason Columbia seeks to cover this ground in case discussions in different subject areas across the breath of the curriculum. Some of the developments and decisions occur over 25 years as in a GM auto industry case taught at Columbia. ...

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Pozen calls for smaller Boards of Directors, and suggests about 6-7 directors for a board. Having closer to 11 directors, as is the norm he says, leads to "social loafing" where the directors do not contribute to effective governance. He cites research showing 6-7 is the most effective size for directors to take personal responsibility and take decisive action. This is important as Boards of Directors at GM, Citigroup and other companies failed to take action, leading to a government bailout of these companies. In other cases the situation was less dire, but the Boards failed to provide effective governance. He suggests the board be comprised of people with experience in the areas the company operates in, with one or two generalists to provide a larger perspective. The Citigroup board in 2007 was comprised of luminaries and only one independent director had worked for a financial services firm. The current practice of a board meeting in person every other month for one day, plus conference calls, is just not adequate to stay abreast of the global operations of a company. What is needed is for an outside director to spend 2 days a month on company business between board meetings. For this reason independent directors should be restricted to serving on just two boards of public companies, Pozen says. This would mean having experienced retired persons in the industry, who are over 60. Compensation which is about $200,000 for a board member would be increased to $400,000, as directors would be putting in twice as many hours. Pozen would like to see board members taking their duties seriously, and having expertise in the field the company operates in, making the board duties their primary job rather than an avocation....

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Young people in India express their rising expectations for the next government- for better infrastructure, for jobs and better incomes and a better vision for the future. Narendra Modi, leader of the BJP party and chief minister of Gujarat state, gives the development and high growth rates in his state as an example for what can be achieved in the the rest of India.

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PM Modi's win in Maharashtra, India's second largest state, and commercial center Mumbai with Ahmedabad, puts Vikshit Bharat plan to modernize India like China and Japan, on a firm footing. Some observers such as this one were of the view that the Chief Minister during Covid had done a good job, and that splitting his party with defections was not the right thing to do. Yet this view does not look at the infrastructure needs of the state and the nation which require effective government and government that can concentrate on delivery. It overlooks India's need to do what China and Japan have done to modernize their country in the last century. Vikshit Bharat is real, it is within reach, and Maharashtra senses this like the rest of the Indian nation. It is similar to Bumrah like Modi telling the Indian team that it had prepared well, now one should trust the process- which leads to Vikshit Bharat modernizing the nation - and give one's best. This led to Jasprit Bumrah taking the Indian team to a 297 run win over Australia at Perth after losing 3 Tests in New Zealand. A 14% vote margin for the NDA alliance called Mahayuti that is PM Modi's effort in Maharashtra, one of India's largest states which includes the city of Mumbai. This report says waves such as 2019 or ones in which Rajiv Gandhi won in 1985 were felt on the ground. This one was not anticipated. Yadav says in just 5 months after PM Modi's party lost in the Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections by 1-2% the shift is 15-16%. He says there is an additional 5 % deficit when a party contests a state election after a national election, widening the vote margin to 20 percent.  Of this he says the welfare schemes for women account for only 2-3%. The rest he can't understand.     ...

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Robert Reilly, an assistant to President Reagan, former director of Voice of America, says don't underestimate the importance of what the younger Bush as president called "the vision thing." Efficiency experts like Hoover, and Republican candidates who had business and other professional experience but could not grasp the moral imperative in politics such as Alf Landon (1936), Wendell Wilkie (1940), Thomas Dewey (1944 and 1948) failed to convince voters. Democrats presented ideas like the Fair Deal, New Deal (FDR), New Frontier (Kennedy), Great Society (Johnson) and captured this "vision thing" to win. This is why he is skeptical about Romney as business and management consultant coming in and bringing change with a number of management consultants. Reagan also presented the choice in moral terms which were then translated into how the government would function to fulfill the moral imperative, says Reilly.

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Arvind Subramanium, outgoing Chief Economic Adviser to the prime minister in an interview with the Hindu newspaper, shares some of the knowledge he gained from failures and successes. The key lesson he gained is that it is important to have independent advisers in government who can speak their mind. Finance minister Jaitley has embraced this point, that such an adviser is not just one more part in the technocratic machinery of government. The success in getting GST he says shows that cooperative federalism is needed going forward as a kind of technology for many changes, including agriculture, DBT.  Subramanium calls the Economic Survey a success with 350,000 unique visitors. He likes the independence and distance of the CEA job to propagate the big ideas combined with closeness to decisionmakers. He counts as a failure not being able to create an office of CEA to the states, a request from 7 chief ministers and state finance ministers. Subramanium sees the need for more people in government with specific expertise in different areas as opposed to generalists as the work of government is becoming much more sophisticated. There is much need for talent and the flow of lateral talent into government.  Responding to economic issues such as the impact of oil prices on the economy Subramanium sees CAD at 2%, inflation at 4.5% much better compared to 2013 levels of double digits and not in unhealthy territory and very manageable. He sees risks in the impact of a combination of oil prices, dollar appreciation, and currency trade wars that are happening. On Iranian oil imports and strict U.S. sanctions on importers Subramanium sees the cost of not complying as stiff once you are in the dollar trading system. On demonetisation he sees there are short term costs and potential long term gains that requires an assessment every 2-3 years provisionally, what happened to tax and formalization, and the costs. Including costs in inconvenience and hardship for informal cash intensive sectors noted in the Economic Survey. For GST he says the revenue growth rate is 16-17% in aggregate for next year, growing 12% in the first year after a difficult implementation. The poorer states have seen an expansion of tax base and revenue performance is unprecedented.    ...

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Anthony Faiola provides this exceptional look at the thinking of Chancellor Merkel and German experts, about the refugees creating more opportunities than risks for Germany. Germany is an aging society, with low birth rates. How to reverse this, so that there will be more young workers to meet future needs long term ten or twenty years from now, is a problem facing Japan and Germany. Germany is also fortunate with the timing, with Germany's unemployment rate at a low of 6.2%, and years of growth ahead from a eurozone recovery. A fortunate circumstance in the nature of refugees from Syria, is that many of them are young, well educated, skilled workers, doctors, engineers and architects, from a relatively moderate Arab country. This is a better immigrant pool than the one Germany took in from Turkey in early postwar years, in terms of education, youthfulness and skills, and one in which the lessons learned from that pool's inadequate integration could be applied here. This is why Germany is not only willing to take in 800,000, but German leaders are saying they could take in 500,000 a year for several years. Just as Germany has taken a long term view, and has the strength to execute it in its shift to renewable energy, Germany's centre right Christian Democrats and centre left Social Democrats in the coalition government see the issue long term around which they can bring a cohesive understanding and consensus in their country. Merkel addressing parliament said on September 9, 2015- "The refugees need help to learn German, and they should find a job quickly. Many of them will become new citizens of our country. If we do it well, this will bring more opportunities than risks." The decision to shift to renewable required a whole new mindset and leadership, in the same way German leaders are articulating the position based on a careful understanding of the situation and Germany's long term interests in reversing Germany's population decline and lower working age people. There are about 3 million Turkish people in the country, adding about 1.8 million Syrian and other refugees would still bring the percentage of people of foreign origin to less than 6% of the 81 million population, just a little bit less Christian and just a little bit less German in origin, which is in keeping with changes in a globalized world and no different than its neigbor France. What looked like a problem, if handled and managed well could be an opportunity knocking at Germany's door. Merkel's genuine convictions about universal civil rights make the "wilkommen refugees" very real in other ways....

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As the Obama administration plans a large stimulus spending plan that may approach $1 trillion over several years, considering also the second phase of the $800 billion first phase stimulus, there is a concern that there may be wasteful spending and social costs of borrowing and spending by the government of such proportions. In economics jargon this hinges on whether there is amultiplier effect of spending, higher if its efficiently and well spent with less impact on private consumption and investment, and lower if the opposite were true. The assumption behind amultiplier of 1.0 for an additional bridge or road is that resources like manpower and capital that would be otherwise idle are deployed to produce something useful. An increase in one unit of government purchases increases by one unit the real gross domestic product. The government has effectively created the additional bridge or road without a cut in anybody's consumption or a businesses investment. The other contrasting approaches are to say there is a multiplier of zero, meaning there is a social cost in two ways. One the reduction of consumption and the crowding out of businesses investing in new products and technologies for example, and second in the inefficent use of resources if a government bureaucracy is put to work allocating money and the additional dangers of favoritism and corruption. To say that there is a multipier of 1.5 would mean that the government figures out a way to get private investment through conversion of plants for automotive parts say to make wind turbine blades by giving incentives, tax benefits and grants, spends on a dilapidated road and public transportation infrastructure that may provide benefits in increased growth capacity over future years. The limits of a government bureaucracy and inefficiency of government would in this case be addressed by transparency rules adopted and measures that track progress that are freely available to all citizens say on a website on the internet, and by bringing in fresh management talent from the private sector. There appears to be no generalization that can be applied for one multiplier for all projects. It may be that the multiplier will vary with the project. Some projects like the conversion of a factory making unneeded auto parts to a badly needed wind energy part, to change the dynamics of energy market pricing, to meet energy needs and cut emissions, may end up having a multiplier much above 1.0. A redundant or less needed bridge has a lower multiplier than a bridge rebuilt before it leads to breakdown. And also the complication that too large a movement in one direction say of stimulus spending, might result in a shift of the curve towards a smaller multiplier and diminishing returns, as the resources to track such a large expenditure and the talent to adminster are overextended. The social cost of private investment not making that investment in new technology, new product or improved product has to be figured into all this, both at the conceptual level as all costs and benefits may not be picked up in the analysis, and at the macro level keeping in mind that the animal spirits, as they were once described, may just not be there to absorb the huge outlays which a government can make. These do not come without an opportunity cost and borrowing costs. All this leads one to to conclude that spending has to be carefully evaluated and projects assessed on a case by case basis for costs and benefits. The spending has to be balanced to provide just as many incentives for private investment to invest in new products and technologies. One way the Obama team is attempting to address this is to include a $300 billion tax cut for businesses and individuals. The business tax cuts are aimed at helping small business with losses, and for future investments and making hires and forgoing layoffs. The other part relates to careful evaluation of spending projects and transparency so the people can see if they are effective. See the link to this....

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The stark differences in the policy positions of the two major parties in the U.S. seen emerging in the television debates. Trump vocal on immigration calling for large deportations. Sanders and Clinton vocal on the struggles of the middle class and white working class.

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The employment-to-population ratio for people aged 20-24 fell to 60.1% from 67.1% in the last 3 years. Prof. Katz says young people who have not entered the labor force and a large number of people who have applied for disability benefits are problem areas. The unemployment rate of 9.4% does not reflect the people who have given up looking for a job, or those who retired, and those who applied for long-term disability benefits.

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Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State meets with Tory group of MP's that want to see other issues relating to China tackled following exclusion of Huawei from UK 5G networks, and suspension of the extradition treaty with Hong Kong. This includes 120,000 Chinese students attending British universities and many students involved in advanced scientific research. Both Labour party leaders and Conservative party leaders support taking action to protect British interests relating to sharing sensitive technology, and national security. The U.S. is moving forward with a decoupling of economic relations with China on issues of sensitive technology, transfer of technology,  ownership of American tech companies, manufacturing jobs and regaining industrial strength, and on trade that transfers wealth from America to China. Britain is having to restructure its relations with China based on the general trend in U.S. China relations. China is the UK's 6th destination for exports of goods and services, only 3.6%. U.S. is far larger about 14%. The UK also has one third of its investments overseas going to the U.S. The U.S. has total investments in the UK of 758 billion dollars in 2018, showing that Britain's relationship with the U.S. is very close. ...

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Narendra Modi's victory speech in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, on May 16, 2014, in which he focussed on "development" of a united India, of a billion people all putting in their own efforts in every sphere of development. He said he needed 10 years to make the dreams of development and good governance a reality in India.

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Taylor goes over details of the Romney Plan and why it is better for economic recovery in the U.S.

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Phased retirement is becoming a popular option for many Americans nearing retirement. An example is a employee taking 25% less income for 13 weeks of additional time off to spend more time with a reitred spouse, for vacation, and for trying out new locations for retirement. It gives working Americans an opportunity to gradually adopt a more relaxed lifestyle, to better understand what it would be like in retirement. This option also has the advantage of using good health to add some working years and improve the retirement portfolio, with less demands of work.

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Italy raised 18 billion euros in a record auction on Oct. 18, 2012, meeting its needs for the rest of the year. Italy's yield dropped to 4.64% on Oct 18. Spain raised 4.6 billion euros at 5.32%. Italy sold most of the BTP Italia bonds to Italian citizens with a 4 year bond linked to Italian inflation and designed for Italian retail investors with a new eBay type internet platform, including a loyalty premium of extra 40 basis points. Italian retail investors have 8 trillion euros in net private wealth and household wealth in Italy is more than 4 times the sovereign debt, according to the Bank of Italy. This is a big difference compared to Spain, because the interest on the bonds remains in Italy for consumption and investment. Spanish households are highly indebted after the housing bubble.

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Not since the days of the Vietnam War has Madison, Wisconsin seen the kinds of demonstrations that were seen last week. This raises a question whether this creates an awakening of the progressive movement. Wisconsin, New Jersey, Ohio, seem to suggest that whats happening in the states will become more important in shaping public opinion as the U.S. elections of 2012 approach. Ohio also has a plan by Governor John Kasich that restricts collective bargaining rights of public workers. A key question is how much public support there is for reduction of pension and health benefits of public employees. Even though the favorable ratings of unions are at a low, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center, the public is divided over whether it supports unions or state governments in disputes about benefits, with slightly more support for the unions. And other states such as Michigan with new Republican governors and majorities in state legislatures say they are not taking the path of Wisconsin in limiting collective bargaining rights, suggesting caution in this respect, even as they plan cuts in benefits. Because of the intensity and passion that has been aroused something more than the calculations of the politicians, including the President, may be at play. President Obama, says the Washington Post, is playing a longer game on the budget, with a measured response, but also saying that teachers, firefighters and police officers were being vilified. The demonstrations in Wisconsin were more bottom up than top down, and have the potential to affect the political dynamic and the way the U.S. addresses its problems in unpredictable ways....