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Ukraine's central bank says its foreign currency and gold reserves dropped to $6.4 billion in Jan. 2015. The conflict in the east with the flareup in Fe.b 2015 is taking its toll on the Ukrainian economy. The central bank raised interest rates and moved to a freely floating exchange rate in Feb 2015. The currency hryvnia lost half of its value in 2014. Ukraine's currency lost one fifth of its value on Feb. 5, 2015. FactSet figures show the decline was down to 25 hryvnia to the U.S. dollar.

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WSJ tells the story about Biden being slow to act in 2021 and 2022 to close the Southern Border, without telling the complete story and all the facts. Biden did close the Border in 2024 by executive order- when Trump blocked passage of Republican Lankford's legislation in Feb 2024 supported by Biden to close the southern Border. No mention is made that Biden was faced with a once in a century pandemic, winning the fight for vaccines over skepticism, and on Feb. 22 2022 Putin launching an attack on Kiev, Ukraine, and negotiating to get the crumbling infrastructure of the US rebuilt, funds for CHIPS and Science. On top of this the Venezuelan economy completely collapsed leading to an unanticipated migrant surge. Only FDR and Lincoln faced so many huge challenges and tackled them one by one. Without these facts the result can be to stall the biggest boom in manufacturing under president Biden/Harris that America has experienced since the space race in the 1960's. ...

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Refugees in Germany are 3.48 million in 2024 at 4 percent of the population, government data shows. This is 60,000 more than in 2023. One third of them are from Ukraine and many of them seek a return to their home country. Clara Bunger a member of the German parliament requested the information from the government. Bunger says- "It's in clear contradiction to the misleading portrayal of an alleged 'national emergency. Such scaremongering deliberately distracts from actual social problems and uses fear to make refugees a scapegoat." This distraction from the problems of cost of living is why immigration hurts workers and families, why PM Mette Frederiksen, Denmark, PM Michel Barnier, France, US president Biden/Harris who negotiated the legislation with Republicans in Congress to close the Border are taking this important step to refocus on the future of America and Europe, and the world at large. ...

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WSJ talk of "reverse Nixon" shift of Russia from China Feb 2025- reminscent of how China moving away from Russia in Mao's last years by 1971- with DJT overtures to Russia. This report does not say that Lt. Keith Kellogg has said clearly and many times the main reason- it is a senseless war that is costing an entire generation of young men from Russia and Ukraine with loss of about 1 million young people in war zones including civilians. All coming after a pandemic has taken away millions of people of an older generation from China, India, US and Russia. PM Modi has also described it in this way.

Europe sees this but has become so entrenched in a view that there will be a winner in this war when there are no winners. America as a beacon of hope in the world takes a position that is in the interests of India, China, EU, Russia and the US.

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A new Cold War takes shape as US and Russian talks proceed on borders in Eastern Europe. Russia insists the border today is a result of it being thrust on a weakened Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The European Union and Britain insist on the right of self determination of the countries of Eastern Europe such as Poland and Ukraine, Baltics. The US seeks some common ground as Russia places its army near the Ukraine border in January 2022.

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Farming companies that are attracting interest from investors range from NZ Wellington based NZ Farming Systems Uruguay which has 100,000 acres in Uruguay for dairy farming using its own methods such as fertilizing grazing grass and making water available to cows at all times, to Brazil listed SLC Agricola which grows corn, cotton and soyabeans on 400,000 acres in Brazil, Stockhom listed Black Earth Farming and London listed Landkom International which grow wheat and rapeseed in the former Soviet Union and in the Ukraine.

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A detailed look at how Enel is trying to penetrate the Russian power market. It is investing $6 billion in Russia. Mr. Fulvio Conti, CEO of Eni, has a clear idea how he is going to operate in Russia. He has developed close ties with Gazprom, has Gazprom as a partner in ownership of former Yukos gas assets which supply power plants it is acquiring ownership of (OGK-5's constellation of power plants in western Russia.) Eni uses Gazproms pipeline network to get the gas to its plants. In this way Eni feels it has a winning model to convert gas into electricity with low risk. Eni can then wait for what it expects will be gradual progress towards liberalization of electricity markets in Russia, so that prices will be higher and give Eni good margins. It will also put Eni ahead of German and other European competitors. Russia's electricity market is expected to grow rapidly as its economy grows. It needs $120 billion in investment to build further its electricity infrastructure and foreign investment is needed in this area. Eni has also offered Gazprom reciprocal ownership of power plant assets in Italy in its negotiations, to build a win-win situation....

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Yascha Mounk says Germany is not as committed to the West as it was in the days of chancellor Adenauer. Policies pursued by Gerhard Schroeder distancing Germany from the U.S. were also carried on under chancellor Merkel.

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This WSJ editorial looks at the situation in the Ukraine war after the events of the last few days in Russia.

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Barley points out that Russia has two strengths as it tackles S&P's downgrade of its credit rating. The downgrade was a result of large capital outflows. He cites Moody's for the low level of government debt of about 13.5% of GDP in 2013, or about $265 billion. Interest payments on debt are about 1.7% of government revenues in 2014. And Russia has $442 billion in foreign exchange reserves as of April 1, to support its efforts and stabilize the economy. The weakness is that Russia depends on oil and gas exports for half of government revenues and 67% of exports, according to Moody's. Higher interest costs on Russia's bonds are one cost of the crisis, bonds due in 2023 have a yield of 5.6%, according to TradeWeb. This yield could go up higher.

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Chen and Goelfeb provide insights into the life and experiences that led Ukrainian immigrant Jan Koum to found startup WhatsApp. After taking a break from work at Yahoo he decided to travel places including Argentina, where he found it especially difficult to communicate with friends in other countries by phone and messaging. The messaging service was a response to this desperately felt need on his own travels, leading to the conviction that it was best to offer it free and make it easy and convenient to use. A similiar situation on travels to Mexico, with little adequate information on hotels, led to another startup Trip Advisor.

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IBM's sales increased in the 4th quarter 2007 by 10% to $28.9 billion and profits by 24%. What is behind this surprisng result when the US economy is seeing recession conditions and tech spending is affected? IBM's globalization strategy is paying off, it is no longer dependent on the US economy. Even to a much larger degree than companies like HP and Intel which get more than half their sales abroad, IBM has recently pursued an aggressive internationalization strategy. Even more than most companies seeing globalization affect the way they operate and expanding aggressively overseas- including companies like GE which see great scope in infrastructure spending in Asia- IBM has pursued internationalization with a vengeance. It has focussed on India, and there its growth has been breathtaking, taking talent away from Indian software companies that only recently were eating IBM's lunch. See the recent link on this. Today IBM has 73,000 employees in India. As the Indian ruppee has strengthened and other currencies aborad strengthen vs the US dollar IBM benefits from currency gains. Note that half of the revenue gain came from currency gains. This exaggerates even more the gains in getting sales and talent overseas. Whats next in IBM's plans? IBM will invest $1.6 billion in the next stage of emerging market expansion in Ukraine, Vietnam, Ecuador, Venezuela, Poland and the Czech Republic. The selection of countries is significant. Ukraine, Poland, And Czech Republic are attractive places for foreign investment and so is Vietnam. Analysts see this level of globalization of sales leading to a different response to recession type conditions in the home market. Instead of across the board cutbacks tech companies will be selective in their cutbacks. In many ways IBM leads the way and a pattern is being set for the whole of US business.The auto industry that emerges in the next few years will tend to look more and more like these tech companies with half or more sales generated abroad, and similiarly for other industries. ...

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Europe ten years ago invested heavily in gas fired electricity plants thinking that natural gas will be plentiful in the future. Now with global demand rising with the emergence of China and Russia. and Western Europe's own reserves, such as Norway's depleting, Europe is in a bind. Alexei Miller told shareholders: "The Natural Gas Market is now a seller's market." Western Europe's share of global gas consumption rose to 17.4 % in 2004 from 14.9% ten years ago. Now countries like Italy and Germany are scrambling to secure supplies and build long term relationships with Gazprom while Poland and other Eastern European countries are facing uncertainty about reliability of Russian gas supplies. Italian oil company Eni is negotiating a long term relationship to cooperate with Gazprom to recover gas from the Russian North and to supply the Italian market. Eni's CEO Paolo Scaroni addressing an industry conference in Amsterdam in June 2006, provided estimates that by 2012 Europe will need 220 billion cubic metres or nearly 2 and half times Italy's annual consumption. Scaroni said: "Where are we going to find all that gas?" Like other countries in Europe Scaroni does not see Gazprom as the whole answer, but sees few other ways to solve supply problems. Italy will invest in liquefied natural gas to have flexibility of sourcing. In the end though Scaroni is relying on Gazprom and says : "This gives them a responsibility to the Italian market .. and it strengthens our relationship."...

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Lingling Wei on Chinese policy on trade with the US in the WSJ and China seeking a visit by DJT to Beijing instead of APEC side meeting in South Korea. A meeting in Washington DC is seen as risky after the Zelensky meeting with DJT took an unexpected turn, and the idea of meeting in Beijing gives more opportunity for getting an organized result and show China's standing in the world of nations. This happens after XI met Putin in Beijing on Victory Day celebrations for World War II where Russian and Chinese losses were far larger than European or US losses. China's huge losses in the millions have not received much attention in the US or Europe. This is also true for losses by the Philippines, Indonesia and India from decisions made during wartime by colonial powers and the Imperial Japanese Army. A meeting of Xi and DJT in Beijing from China's point of view may also show China is ready to work with the US in trade and the economy where it has huge interests in a stable transition to where Chinese industry does not overproduce what it cannot sell and seeks a diversified market shifting away from concentration in the US. Both Xi and DJT are playing to a domestic and international audience to show they are wise leaders willing to engage and at the same time protecting their national interests. The issues of support for Ukraine and fentanyl sources in China remain unresolved. ...