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HP CEO in aplanned reorganization will merge the printer business with the PC business. It is ameasure of how far the PC business has come since Mr Hurd was made CEO 4 years ago, and after he hired Mr Bradley a former Palm CEO to shake up the PC business. Mr. Bradley has made the PC division supply chain more efficinet especially in the fast growing consumer netbook PC business, and has cut costs. Meantime the printer business under Joshi has stagnated. The PC business was merged into printer business by Fiorina in the hope that Joshi could make a difference. Hurd separated the two and put Bradley at the PC division.Now its the PC business that is taking off and its head who will try to improve the printer business. Bradley has run alean business and improved PC margins even as prices of PC's have tumbled. HP also passed Dell in PC's sold. In the quarter ending July 31,2009 HP PC sales were$8.43 billion and $386 million in earnings, accounting for 12% of profits, printer and ink were $5.66 billion and $960 million in earnings for 30% of overall profit. Hurd told analysts in aconference call that he was disappointed in how the printer unit inventory was managed, and that HP had to get some internal stuff right. The ...

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To cut the deficit estimated at 5.5% of GDP, the Indian government is cutting fuel subsidies. It is reducing the $5.6 billion spent on fuel subsidies. About $4.4 billion is also is spent on subsidies by state owned energy companies. Prices for gasoline will rise only moderately by 3.5 rupees a liter to about 55.7 rupees a liter. This should improve the situation for state owned energy companies and for private sector companies like Reliance and Essar.

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The mangled inscription on the Martin Luther King memorial in Washington D.C. The original inscription was shortened from four sentences to one sentence with much of the meaning lost, even distorted. The original phrases were about Dr King saying "a drum major" attitude is not a thing one has to be careful about because it can lead to an egoistic view. There are many words of Dr King which would have better served the purpose at the memorial, why these were chosen remains a mystery.

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India's demographics show one startling fact. By 2020, the average age of Indians will be 29. This is happening just as the rest of the world is aging very fast. In the next 15 years India will have 130 million more people in the 20 to 49 age group. This compares with a shrinking in population of 100 million in that age group in developed countries and China, according to the U.N. Population Division. The problem facing India is malnutrition that runs as high as 43% for children with half the mothers anemic, weak educational system at the primary and secondary school levels especially in the government run schools, lack of good governance in the most populated states such as Uttar Pradesh in the Ganges plains which has 200 million people, the consequent overburdening of cities which have no plans to manage the migration of the rural poor to the cities. India has to find ways to fill the huge gaps in getting better nutrition, education, dignity and sense of opportunity, and work for the growing numbers....

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Problems this time as during the last ten years South Korean took oh a lot of consumer debts to increase consumption. During the last slowdown in the 1990's consumers were encouraged to take on more debt and this fueled growth. But this time the government expects private consumption to grow only 1% next year. South Korean household debt went up by 10.7% in the third quarter over last year, according to the Bank of Korea, and total debt per household has reached a high of 40 million won or $29,000 per household.

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The Indian rupee reached a low of 58.98 in currency markets on June 11, 2013. The Indian government increased the import tax on gold and the central bank RBI tightened the availability of credit for gold imports. Oil and gold imports were drivers for increasing India' large current account deficit to 6.7% of GDP in the 4th quarter of 2012.

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Girl from Ipanema turns 50.

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Note this comment by the head of the U.S. National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration in the Bush Administration. NHTSA Administrator Jackie Glassman says the average mileage for the fleet today is 30 miles per gallon and raising the current standard of 27.5 mpg for an automakers passenger fleet by 2.5 mpg won't put much pressure on automakers. The Bush administration- and the prior Clinton administration- has not committed to making major improvements to the national mileage standards, with the current standards of 27.5 mpg not having changed since 1990! Glassman says the NHTSA starts with the manufacturers product plans and then sees whether it can get additional fuel savings with these plans. This suggests an NHTSA that is more follower to the auto industry rather than a leader in setting the standards that the auto industry then tries to achieve to reduce the U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Also note that it takes 2 years for things to change, as it will take months for rule changes, and 18 months have to be given to automakers to implement the new rules. By 2008 the fuel efficiency based on market competition and Toyota focussing on hybrids and higher fuel efficiency across the whole car lines, might well exceed any new standards that are watered down, especially if crude prices hold up. Lawsuits by attorney generals of different states and the Lugar-Obama bipartisan bill pushing the adminsitration to mandate higher standards are intended to put pressure on the Bush administration to come up with new higher standards. The failure of Democrats and Republicans in the Clinton and Bush years to raise standards and require the auto companies to use new technology to meet these standards with government assistance is one of the significant failures. This will affect the prospects for the U.S. economy in the years ahead....

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Baer describes the role played by Jeb Bush at Lehman, the sensitive moments when Lehman was near collapse and Lehman executives suggested Dick Fuld, the CEO, should talk to his brother George W Bush, the U.S. president. According to Baer this call was never made because of the odd position it would place the two brothers in. Jeb Bush made a trip to Mexico City to meet Carlos Slim, a telecom billionaire, seeking investment prior to Lehman's collapse. Bush was paid $1.3 million annually for his work at Lehman, and after Lehman was acquired by Barclay's bank $2 million annually. Bush worked under Steve Lessing, a key fund raiser for his brother George W. Bush, at Lehman and Barclay's. The work involved talking to clients including healthcare companies Cigna, insurance company MetLife, and other clients. About half of Bush's time was spent working at the bank as an adviser, not an employee. The only other candidate for president in 2016 who worked at Wall Street, Ohio governor John Kasich, also worked at Lehman from 2001 to 2008. Kasich was reportedly paid $182,000 and a bonus of $432,000 as managing director at the investment banking division, less than Jeb Bush but working full time. When Jeb Bush graduated from the University of Texas in 1974 he worked at Texas Commerce Bank, founded by James Baker III, a close friend of his father George H.W. Bush. He worked there from 1974 to 1980, in the international division looking at country risks in Latin America. Both Jeb Bush and Kasich face the prospect of facing difficult questions about their time at Lehman Brothers, because of the 2008 financial crisis and aggressive leveraged expansion at the bank leading to its collapse....

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Mr Obama's vision of a nuclear weapons free world going back to his days at Columbia University. There as a senior he took Prof. Michael Baron's seminar on international politics and American policy. In a paper for that course Mr Obama analyzed how a President might go about negotiating nuclear arms reductions with Russia. Baron says Obama has been thinking about these issues for a long time. About this time Obama wrote an essay in the Columbia Sundial student newspaper. This was the time when the Greens movement for a nuclear weapons free world was strong in Germany, and Reagan was pushing for a nuclear arms development race with Russia. The article was titled "Breaking the War Mentality." As a senator Obama joined Senator Dick Lugar -who has worked hard for non-proliferation- on a trip to Russia to monitor efforts by Ruusia to scrap nuclear arms and secure atomic materials from theft or diversion. He allied himself with four Reagan period veterans Kissinger, Shultz, Perry and Sam Nunn, who in a 2007 WSJ op-ed article, argued that it was time- as the headline for the article said -to work for "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons." The steps in practice Obama plans to take are the following. A Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, which would bar all nations signing it from making fuel for their atomic bombs. Rewriting crucial provisions of the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, strengthening inspection provisions and closing loopholes that let N. Korea drop out in 2003. Countries would have to give up the freedom to make fuel for reactors and instead buy it from an international fuel bank. Global consensus and prevention when it comes to deviant states hoping to enhance their own security, or regimes or terrorist groups, will be crucial in setting up a new system for a nuclear weapons free world....

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The unravleing of Borders bookstores chain in the US, after Borders management failed to anticipate and build on the new trend to electronic books and made a series of mistakes. Borders filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in early Feb. 2011. Its online strategies simply failed to come up with answers to the cultural trend to online shopping for books and buying e-book readers. A serious bad decision from which Borders never recovered was to transfer its internet operations to Amazon Inc. in 2001. Amazon quickly built up customer relationships with millions of customers. Other decisions followed which put Borders in an untenable position. Borders increased its debt from $159 million in 2001, to $554 million for the fiscal year ended Feb 2, 2008, using the money for overseas expansion and share buybacks, which did little to address the looming internet problem. By contrast Barnes and Noble took the opposite strategy of paying down all of its $667 million in debt. Borders has modest beginnings starting in 1971, when Tom and Louis Borders, started a small used bookstore. By the 1990's bookstores with tens of thousands of books in one location were changing the bookselling landscape, as smaller bookstores were closing. Borders was able to ride this wave. When the next wave hit in 2010 with the internet, Borders was unable to respond and went into permanent decline. A costly trip through bankruptcy court means Borders will have to close one third of its 674 Borders and Waldenbooks stores, and cut a large part of the 19,500 staff. This will mean customers shifting to Amazon, Barnes& Noble, Apple Inc. and Google Inc. Mike Shazin, CEO of Idea Logical Co, a New York consulting firm, says he expects 50% of bricks and mortar bookstores to go away in 5 years, and 90% to go away in 10 years. ...

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The Economist points out that China's total debt of government, corporate and households has grown by about 100% of GDP since 2008. The 2009 crisis led to rapid increase in debt. It is now about 250% of GDP, according to the Economist. Slower growth of below 7% risks reducing China's ability to service this debt. About half of this debt is owed by state owned companies and property developers. China can use its sovereign reserves to continue supporting bank and state owned companies. Investor's are pricing bank shares to reflect about 10% of this debt as bad debt even though government estimates are much lower. The reserves provided China time to fix the banking system since 2008, yet the debt keeps growing and China has failed to take strong action in the last 6 years. Complacency is a problem, and the incentives for local governments to continue prior practices that increase debt continue. As Krugman and other experts have pointed out at some point the rules of finance will apply to China as they have for other countries that faced a debt crisis- Japan in the late 1980's, South Korea and other Aisan countries in 1997, and the U.S. in 2008. Even without a crisis through deft managemen and use of reserves China risks zombifying the economy as old loans are backed up by new loans, with the further risk of misallocation of capital or poor use of capital. This lowers productivity of capital and hurts development. With poor statistics such as the figure of 1% of debt being bad debt cited here, the problems of complacency can be magnified, as there is less reason for a strong response....

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Increasing regional tensions with a more assertive Japan and China. U.S. president Obama's so called "pivot to Asia," appears to have little impact. China has tended to look for its own security architecture in Asia that excludes the U.S. U.S. efforts to reduce tensions are being ignored by China in May-June 2014, as China asserts itself in waters that are in dispute with Vietnam. The lack of U.S. influence compares unfavorably with the situation that prevailed since 1900, when the U.S. had the most significant influence in Asian waters. It has more to do with a policy of withdrawal under the Obama administration than U.S. capabilities. The policy of withdrawal in the Middle East comes after much of the sacrifice had been made and the situation in Iraq changed, so that for a much smaller incremental effort the U.S. could have both lived up to its principles and ideals for democracy and freedom as well as win public opinion in the Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East. This withdrawal in the Middle East has given Russia and China the wrong signal leading to more assertive stance in Europe and Asia, and creating uncertainty where little uncertainty existed about U.S. determination. Under whatever terms it is wrapped the policy of the Obama administration is one of withdrawal. It is dangerous because it will mean a more costly effort would be needed under a future administration to restore the situation which prevailed earlier- in which the U.S. has helped create a climate in which the entire region including China and Japan have prospered economically, without the region descending into a competition between Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and India. The Obama administration with its muddled policies has inadvertently created this situation....

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Adly Mansour, a judge with the Supreme Constitutional Court in Egypt, is appointed by the military as president of Egypt. He was to take office as Chief Justice before the June 2013 protests in Egypt intervened to delay this. On July 3, 2013 he was sworn in as president before the Supreme Court. Mansour is one of two judges selected by president Morsi. He is a graduate of Cairo University, and studied public affairs and management in Paris before joining the judicial sytem in 1977. His decisions as judge went against both Mubarak and Morsi, showing his independent position as a judge on the Supreme Court. The judiciary is now taking an important role in Egypt similar to the role it has played in Pakistan, another Muslim country adopting democratic forms of governance after decades of coups and military rule since the 1950's. The larger Muslim countries in the Middle East, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and Egypt are faced with the challenge of balancing the demands of modernization with tradition, the demands of educated urban population with the more devout Islamist rural population, and creating stable transitions in democratically elected government. Islamists such as president Erdogan in Turkey who described western democratic forms of government as a train to get to a destination have still to take in to account the need to incorporate opposing secular views in governance. In this sense Turkey is not the model for governance as it once appeared for Egypt, Pakistan Iran and other Muslim countries. A new consensus in society needs to develop that respects all aspects of democratic governance including respect for the role of the opposition in a democracy, the role of an independent impartial judiciary, and the role of independent media. This will take time to develop just as it took time to develop in Europe and North America....

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For the 1st quarter 2009, finance industry spent $104.7 million to lobby Congress and the administration, down 8% from the prior year, according to WSJ analysis of data collected by the Center for Responsive Politics. The health-care industry spent $127.1 million for lbbying, up by 12%. Lobbying can affect legislation in ways that can be for either good or bad in the public interest. Since 1990 the financial industry has spent $2.2 billion in political contributions to lawmakers, more than any other industry tracked by the Center for Responsive Poltics. Since 1998, the earliest available data, the finance industry has also been the highest spender on lobbying activities , with spending on lobbying lawmakers at $3.6 billion. Its significant that the financial industry landscape has been changed, the higher risktaking by banks enabled, and the reduced regulatory activity environment advanced by heavy lobbying. The banking industry lobbied for the 1999 repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, a1933 law that kept banks out of the securities business. That effort led by Citicorp, J.P. Morgan,Bankers Trust took 20 years, many tries and more than $300 million in lobbying funds according to the WSJ. The Mortgage Bankers Association with a 10 story headquarters in Washington D.C. has 114 staffers, and SIFMA the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association has 120 staffers and 14 people in its lobbying group. As a sign of how all this lobbying is viewed across the country, Rep, Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committtee, frankly told Mr. Courson, the President of the Mortgage Bankers Association, "everybody hates you, and now they're starting to hate me for hanging out with you," a remark Courson recited at a meeting....

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Efforts by prime minister Erdogan of Turkey to reach a peace agreement with the Kurdish PKK and its leader Mr. Ocalan who is in a Turkish prison since 1999. Mr. Ocalan is reported to be ready to reach an agreement. Prime minister Erdogan is keen on reaching an agreement because of the war in Syria, where a group related to the PKK and Ocalan is in control of the Kurdish northeastern region in Syria. This creates a situation where the Kurds in northern Iraq and in Syria could form a Kurdish state. Other reasons for Erdogan to push forward with an agreement are his intention to rewrite the Turkish constitution to setup an executive presidency. Erdogan would then be able to run for president. He would need Kurdish voters support for this move. In recent years Turkey has moved closer to Iraq, is its main trading partner and a destination for Turkish exports. Turkey now sees itself as a regional power in the Middle East after years of waiting to become part of the European Union. Turkey sees other advantages for this move to a peaceful Middle East- it sees benefits from trade with Egypt, and a new Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, making the whole region a destination for Turkish exports and foreign investment. As part of this move Erdogan's administration is lifting curbs on the use of the Kurdish language in the Kurdish southeast of Turkey and in the regional capital of Diyarbakir. This is an example of how trade, commerce and changing political conditions can create peaceful progress. It is reminiscent of the situation in Spain where the Catalan language was suppressed by the government of Franco till the 1980's, when the formation of the European Union and the changed political climate led to autonomy for Catalonia under a elected federal government....

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Fiat's Marchionne leads Chrysler. He will keep Jim Press as deputy CEO. Press is a veteran from Toyota. The four brand CEO's are Peter Fong for Chrysler, Michael Manley for Jeep, Michael Accavitti for Dodge, and Pietro Gorlier for Mopar. Except for Gorlier, all are Chrysler employees. Ralph Gilles continues as Design executive, and Scott Kunselman, a Chrysler veteran will lead product development. Frank Ewasyshyn will continue to lead manufacturing. Doug Betts will remain in charge of quality, and Scott Gaberding, as head of procurement. Only Marchionne and Richard Palmer, the new Chief Financial Officer are the new faces at the upper ranks. Marchionne's mesage to Chrysler employees is that Fiat was perceived by many as failing in 2004, " a lethargic automaker that produced low-quality cars." But he says "most of the people capable of remaking Fiat had been there all the time. Through hard work and tough choices, we have remade Fiat into a profitable company." One thing that Marchionne has already in mind is a flattened organization with which he says "we are able to increase speed of decision-making and improve communication." Marchionne is actually a manager who worked and spent many years in Canada. He got his MBA at the University of Windsor, in Windsor, Ontario, in 1980 and his LLB law degree from York University in Toronto. His parents immigrated to Canada when he was 13, and he grew up in Toronto. He worked at Deloitte Touche and Canadian companies before moving to Europe. So he is very familiar with working in North America. Compared to the young group he had working for him in changing Fiat, he has many older managers at Chrysler. ...

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How bankruptcy courts can offer a solution to the foreclosure crisis or at least mitigate its effects on the economy and on people. Senator Durbin of Illinois is expected to introduce legislation to put this into effect. It was adopted as a Chapter 12 provision to save farmowners in distress in Iowa in the 1980's, and helped keep many farming families on the farm in that situation. Not all families would be helped as some will not be able to make even the reduced payments given by a bankruptcy judge. But it gives bankruptcy courts the authority to cut through all the red tape and reluctance of bankers and mortgage securities owners to take the initiative and reduce payments, and in the end may actually generate more money for lenders than foreclosure, which has high costs on several dimensions. One cost and one dimension that is not considered is the cost to the economy and to all businesses, from retail to other products, as foreclosures lead to declines in housing prices. This leads in a downward spiral to more homeowners going under water with their homes being worth less than the mortgage, and this in turn leading to foreclosures that lead to further house price declines. The decline in housing prices adds to the incentive to save and reduce spending, which leads to inventory buildup and layoffs. This is why the situation cannot be seen in isolation, and becomes an area where interests of individual parties like lenders and securities holders tend not to be maximized when they follow their personal interest. And there is no party that can take the collective interest in this case except the federal government. ...