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Universal Health care, Education, and Energy are going to be tackled in 2009. Obama is not going to shy away from tackling all these issues in his first 6 months and he sees this as part of the solution, the simultaneous attack on all these problems which are interrelated as far as the economy is concerned and how it impacts the people. Health care for instance is a serious problem as the economy deteriorates and job losses increase and the highly indebted people find health care unaffordable, which the President emphasized with statistics to this effect. He also called for patience and support with restoring the banking system even though bankers have lost the trust of the American people. More money will be needed and his administration is working on all the details.And he reaffirmed his view that there is no waste inthe nearly $800 billion Stimulus plan, and his promise to keep a sharp eye out for wasteful spending by state and citiy officials..

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Chozick and Parker of the NYT show how Donald Trump's frequent sexist comments on women and references to Hillary Clinton in similiar terms are likely to influence the outcome of the general election of 2016. The women's vote has played a significant part in the recent elections of 2008 and 2012 helping Democratic candidate Obama. Trump has a astonishingly high disapproval rating with women, unprecedented in U.S. election history, cited by the WSJ as 75%. Cruz's choice of Carly Fiorina as a running mate shows an awareness of the importance of the women's vote. Some of the comments cited here include the Trump comment that "if Hillary Clinton were a man, I don't think she would get 5% of the vote." It is not clear if this will help the Republican party, as such comments could alienate the mass base of women voters, including the base of young women voters who supported Sanders, women who are independents and moderate Republican women. Hillary Clinton is carefully planning a fall campaign in which such Trump attacks are expected, and the response will be handled not directly by Hillary but by Super PAC's, as Hillary sticks to calling them sexist and energizing her base from the attacks. CBS polls show Trump has the support of 39 percent of white women, compared to 50% for Hillary Clinton. Trump's attacks on women are strangely enough targeted at getting the support of white women- and men - in another wild twist of the 2016 campaign....

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Pearlstein lists the names of insider investors for Facebook- Peter Theiel and Founders Fund, Jim Breyer and Accel Partners, Greylock Partners, Microsoft, Li-Ka-shing, Bono and Elevation Partners, Alisher Usmanov and DSL. For full disclosure he states Washington Post Co. chairman, Donald Graham, is on the board of Directors of Facebook. Venture capitalists are leveraging their position in Facebook to get new investors, share prices of companies involved are up. Goldman benefits by the $60 millon for placing client money in Facebook, a cut of 5% from any profit they earn, and the hundreds of millions of dollars from being a lead underwriter for Facebook's IPO. What all this does is create the conditions for a bubble for internet stocks similiar to the bubble in late 1990's, with insiders reaping most of the benefits and the public taking on most of the risk as the internet stock loses its dominant position with the entry of new technologies and competitors in the market or a change in consumer preferences. As was evident in the earlier bubble this is not hard to create. Some of these bubbles are in fact already taking place for Chinese internet stocks on US stock exchanges, with investigation staking place into accounting practices of some of these companies. With the financial electronic media and analysts doing their part in the hype and sell such a bubble is underway, just when the debt burdened US middle class can ill-afford any losses that may take place. ...

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Robert Gordon of Northwestern University shows the optimistic and pessimistic factors in the economy in terms of their contribution to GDP. He says botht he optimists and pessimists ae correct, with the question being the relative strength of the factors. He says the recovery will not be a V shaped recovery , and it will only be half as strong as the recovery of 1983-84, in the range of 3% to 4%, the annualized growth rate between 1982 4th quarter and 1984 4th quarter was 6.4%. Annualized growth according to the Commerce Department was 3.2% in 1st quarter 2010, following 5.6% growth annualized in 4th quarter 2009 In this picture international trade and exports have not played as strong apart as imports continued to rise. Overall personal consumption expenditures held up pretty well and showed +2.55, inventory change +1.57 as companies began to replace IT and other equipment, producers durable equipment and software, federal government +0.11. On the pessimist side residential structures were -0.29, nonresidential structures -0.44, net exports -0.61 showing that exports are not playing the part needed for the economy to recover, and state and local governments are -0.48. The progressively deteriorating situation expected as state and local governments cut back will weigh as aserious negative in this respect says Gordon. And this just as the inventory chnge numbers wind down to a smaller number. The total has to add upto the +3.24% growth for 1st quarter 2010 on an annualized basis as shown in the Bureau of Economic Analysis numbers. ...

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The Indian economy is expected to grow by 8.5% this year compared to 6.5% in 2009. But a major problem looms in the high inflation facing India. The poor monsoon in 2009 led to higher prices for foodgrains, lentils, and sugar. And the government's cut in the fuel subsidies will lead to more efficient use of energy, but will lead to one additional percentage point in wholesale price inflation according to the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. The whoesale price index in India went up by 10.5% in June from the prior year, and this after a 10.1% increase in May. Bloomberg's tracking of consumer prices in the Asia-Pacific region shows India at the top of 17 countries in inflation, and consumer prices paid by industrial and farm workers in India are shown to be increasing at 14% annually. The government is coming under criticism for not releasing more grains from its stocks to soften the impact of last year's monsoon. The Manmohan Singh government finds inflation at above 10% unacceptable and is looking for further action from the central bank. Reserve Bank of India governor Subbarao has raised rates 3 times since March 2010 to 5.5%, and a further increase is expected at its next meeting on July 27. A better harvest in September, from a better monsoon season, could help lower food prices. If this does not happen, more tightening by the central bank could hurt economic growth, putting the government in a quandary....

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With Bud Lights sales declining for the last 3 years, Anheuser Busch is responding with new "craft" beers and new malt beverages which have the taste of iced tea and tequila. Anheuser has 46.9% of the U.S. market, down from 48.9% in 2008, according to Beer Marketer's Insights. Shipments declined by 3.2% in 2011. The emergence of many small independent "craft" beers as consumers look for variety and new alternatives, has cut into sales for Anheuser and MillerCoors. MillerCoors, a joint venture between London based SABMiller and Denver based Molson Coors Brewing, is increasing its advertising budget by 50% to boost Miller Light. In the U.S. "craft" breweries increased production by 13% in 2011, reaching 10 million barrels according to the Brewers Association. This is 5% of the total market in the U.S. of 200 million barrels. Anheuser's new product introductions include Bud Light Platinum, with higher alcohol content, and new packaging, which has taken a 1% share in the market. Anheuser has a research brewery which is trying out new beers- one is a wheat India Pale Ale with its strong taste, introduced under its Shock Top Label. In the malt beverage category Anheuser has Bud Light Lime-a- Rita, with 8% alcohol coming to stores in April, that has the flavor of margarita. Anheuser is also heavily promoting its Belgian beer Stella Artois, which increased sales by 24% in 2011, to reach 1 million barrels. Another strategy is buying craft breweries, such as Chicago based Goose Island, which Anheuser acquired for $39 million in 2011....

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In this Agenda column Simon Nixon takes on the U.S. Treasury's criticism of Germany for its current account surplus of 7% of GDP in 2012, and not doing enough for the economies of southern Europe. The German government called it "incomprehensible." Nixon says it is better for the German economy to remain strong and to boost competitiveness and consumer spending in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece. He says the low eurozone inflation of annualized 0.7% for September 2013, which prompted the ECB to cut rates by 0.25%, is healthy to the extent that consumer prices are declining to adjust to a decline in wages. The reduction in labor costs is a way to restore lost competitiveness, just as Germany did in the last decade. The criticism is considered by many economists to be misdirected, and seen as "incomprehensible" by Germans, as Germans ask what would the U.S. have them do- provide stimulus when the government debt to GDP ratio is currently 82%, increase wages and how would this help Southern Europeans. Focussing on Germany's current account surplus says Nixon, is obscuring the larger issues of increasing consumer and business confidence and spending in the eurozone, and increasing bank lending. The new ECB bank resolution arrangements and other changes including deposit insurance if done right should help the recapitalization and restructuring needed for restoring bank lending to support recovery. Spain is furthest along in regaining competitiveness, with changes in Portugal, Italy and Greece also supporting a gradual return to growth....

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Simon Johnson, is Professor at MIT's Sloan School, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, co-founder of BaselineScenario.com a widely cited site on the global economy, and is a member of the Congressional Budget Office's Panel of Economic Advisors. Here he talks to the WSJ's Deal Journal reporters. He says the stress test don't mean much because the government using a milder scenario, made the banks look better than they really are. He suggests a wait-and-see strategy, as banks have 1 month to file plans on how they will raise needed capital and 6 months to do it. He sees a steeper yield curve on Treasury debt as a result, with long term Treasury securities like 20 year Treasury notes yielding higher than short duration securities, which should stimulate long term lending. Expect banks to issue more bonds than stocks which dilute shareholders value, and as bond prices are low. Johnson sees real risks of inflation in 1-2 years, becaue of the way the government has inflated the economy, in a manner he says like the private sector bubble. Expect the government to cut back to prevent this from happening. He also sees pretty good earnings in the financial sector in the second quarter which should help stocks. The question remains about how sustainable all this will be, because he says " the government by oversubsidizing the financial sector will get us stuck in the same kind of financial bubble that got us into the mess in the first place." ...

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Fed chief Bernanke's childhood home in Dillon County, South Carolina, a home in which his grandparents lived after building it on purchased land in 1945. The home was transferred to his parents and remained in the family till 1996. The town with its tobacco and textile industries is suffering decline and unemployment is 14%. The dropout rate at Dillon High School where Bernanke studied, graduating in 1971, is 40% for the ninth grade. Bernanke's grandfather Jonas, a pharmacist, opened Jay Bee Drug Company on Main Street in 1941. Ben's father and uncle ran the drug store. Now the home has ended up in foreclosure and was bought recently from foreclosure for $83,000, by a 25 year old working in a bank who grew up in the neighborhood. Mohawk Industries closed a plant making yarn for carpeting, Wix Manufacturing cut hours and jobs at its automotive filter factory, and Smurift Stone Container making corrugated cardboard filed for bankruptcy in Dillon county. The house has an interesting mortgage history. The owner who could not make the payments had a 10.1% 30 year fixed mortgage, well above the rate for a prime loan, with their payments on the $123,000 home at $1088. When Mrs Rogers lost her job at a shoe store the couple could not make the payments. The couple broke up under the financial strain. Landmark Mortgage which made the original loan transferred the loan to Option One Mortgage Corporation, which packaged it with other mortgages into a $818 million security. ...

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Brazil depends on private financing for agricultual production by farmers from companies like Cargill, ADM and Bunge. These companies finance about 40% of Brazilian farmers financial needs, though this year it may drop to 25% as credit tightens. They provide this money in advance cash payments and loans in exchange for future delivery of grain. This has led to a,rapid buildup of agricultural production and the infrastructure and roads needed, making Brazil the second biggest producer of soyabeans and accounting for 25% of world production. Now Bunge has cut advance cash payments by 70% since December 2007 according to company filings. ADM and Cargill have actually expanded the amount of credit available. But Soyabean and Corn Advisor, a consulting firm in Illinois estimates the cost of producing the 3 main crops in the state of Mato Grasso, the soyabeans, corn and cotton, will increase by 42% in 2008 over 2007. So farmers are faced with higher debt especially because this comes on top of accumulated debt from prior years when there were higher exchange rates in the early 2000's. Now Brazilian farmers are faced with falling crop prices, rising costs of farm supplies, unfavorable real-dollar exchange rates, and tighter credit, similiar to the situation playing out in the American farm belt. The plantings are smaller this year for soyabeans. And many farmers are forgoing debt payments and letting banks repossess farm machinery in Mato Grasso state. The overall impact of this will be lower global farm production and the impact will be felt in Brazilian GDP growth rates. ...

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Chrysler is beginnning the effort to cut dealership that aren't sellin enough cars. Note the figures for dealerships, GM 6900, Ford 4200, and Chrysler 3700, Toyota 1400 for market share, GM 23%, Ford 16%, Chrysler 14%, Toyota 16%, This comes to 300 delaers per market share point for GM 280 for Ford, 270 Chrysler, 90 for Toyota. Lower producing dealers and surplus dealers undercut prices of stronger dealers and everyone in general.

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Timothy Rooks in DW.com points out rightly that it will be how well Macron grasps the opportunity to turnaround the economy within the EU that will make a difference. France needs some of the changes Macron is proposing because it has one of the largest state sectors of western economies, and private industry needs to be revitalized to generate the jobs to reduce youth unemployment. A cut in the corporate tax to 25% from 33% would be in line with Britain, Germany and other countries. Some cuts in spending 60 billion euros over 5 years, and 50 billion euro stimulus package. The wealth tax would be retained, and the 35 hour work week.  He has opposing views on 35 hour week but now will focus on flexibility on overtime, capping severance pay and investing in education, job training, other ways of reviving the labor markets to get hiring started again and cut into 25% unemployment for persons under age 25. He also plans to follow the German model of letting companies deal with unions at the local level, at the company level, not only at a national level. Close cooperation with Germany and the confidence of French industry will be a plus as he works to revive the French economy, with the conviction that this will also be a project to fulfill the hope of young people for jobs, and a way to reduce the number who have turned to extremist parties in France. ...

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Alexandra Stevenson provides this exceptional account of how the debt deal between Argentina and the hedge funds was negotiated. A decade long deadlock was broken for the first time when Argentina's finance secretary in the newly elected government of Mauricio Macri met Jonathan Pollock and Jay Newman of Elliott Management on Dec. 7, 2015, at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York. It is based on 8 intervews with the participants in the negotiations, court filings and emails. Critical to the settlement was the work of Dan Pollack, a trial lawyer with the McCarter & English law firm who acted as the mediator and made some rules including no pen and paper allowed, building trust through open discussion. Back channels helped including one setup through Marcos Mindlin of energy firm Pampa Energia in Argentina, who helped the hedge funds communicate with the Argentine negotiators. Mindlin met the hedge fund representatives at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Argentine president Macri insisted on making the terms he offered public on Feb. 1, 2016 of $6.5 billion because this is a sensitive issue in Argentina. Pollack pushed for a simple business transaction to close the issue and not the complex debt structuring the hedge funds favored. On Feb. 19, Judge Griesa of Federal District Court in Manhattan, who presided over the legal settlement, agreed to lift an injunction that would prevent Argentina from making bond payments and raising new money, and set a deadline of Feb. 29 for the settlement. On Feb. 28 the deal was signed by all the hedge funds. Argentina paid all holdout hedgefunds $9.3 billion, according to the Economy ministry, Elliott getting $2.4 billion....

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Plastic water bottle use surged with a shift to single bottle use of bottled water as a preferred option to using sugar drinks and sodas. In the U.S. this use has surged 284% since 1994, with 67% of the bottled water sold not in jugs but in single use convenience type plastic water bottles.  Manufacturers of plastic water bottles have failed to come up with a technology that makes the kind of plastic that can be easily recycled. Danone's bottled water company Evian brand makes about 30% of its plastic water bottles from recycled plastic and no aims at shifting entirely to recycled plastic by 2025.  Images of bottles filling landfills and hurting sealife have led to consumer opposition to their prolific use. Ocean Conservancy says plastic water bottles are behind cigarette butts and food wrappers the thrid most item washing up on shorelines.  Curbs- Cities in Massachusetts along the coastline are banning their use. New York City is banning the sale in parks, beaches, of these bottles. And the European parliament  is backing laws for member states to collect 90% of these bottles for recycling by 2025. Mumbai has banned this year eater being sold in small bottles. The importance of this is now sinking in. ...

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Saudi Arabia needs current oil price of $60 a barrel to move up to $80 a barrel to balance its national budget. To do this OPEC needs to coordinate its oil production cuts with a group of 10 countries led by Russia that includes Mexico. These countries include countries in the former Soviet Union.  In December cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day were coordinated between the 2 groups to push up oil prices. Now the OPEC cartel plans regular meetings with the Russian led group to push up oil prices. Under a draft document an alliance between the 2 groups would last 3 years and include regular meetings. Earlier Prince Salman led Saudi government proposed replacing OPEC with a new group combining Russia and Saudi Arabia and the other countries in OPEC, yet giving most of the decision making power to Russia and Saudis. This was rejected by Russia and was received poorly by Iraq, Iran  Nigeria, Angola, Algeria. The Iraqis reminded Saudis that OPEC was started in Baghdad. ...

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A Republican move for a 3 month extension of the U.S. debt ceiling to provide time to reach a negotiated deal with Democrats.

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Krugman points out that the prospects for the economy while improving in 2011, will acutally be worse off in 2012 than in the absence of the the Obama tax cut deal with Republicans. He points to the prospect of another bad deal nearer the elections. His main concern is that the Bush tax cuts will become permanent under this deal because this continues the practice of stringing things along, with the hugely negative impact on the deficit.

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BW's Mandel takes the Bureau of Economic Analysis numbers and finds that the American savings rate is somewere near 6.4% and Americans have cut spending by $200 billion or 3.1% over the past year. And over the past year Americans reduced spending on automobiles by 10.8% and clothing by 4.2%. But this still does not explain the steep decline of nearly 40% in the sales of automobiles for the Detroit carmakers and big declines for the Japanese carmakers also.