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As the media in the US and world cover this issue the focus is on the war and Hormuz. In the background a different situation is playing out. US Iran peace talks with Pakistan/ Qatar mediation June 13 2026- different factions in Iran RGC and Foreign Ministry+mediators with different positions  put out conflicting reports throughout May and June. The mediators Pakistan, Turkey and also Qatar/Saudis which also have a keen interest in limiting the damage to their economies, are taking one position working with the Foreign Ministry and elected Iranian president Pezeshkian who won 16 million votes 55% in the 2024 election. Inside Iran the RGC under new leaders is pursuing its own interests that does not put the economy first in conflict with Pezeshkian and public opinion in Iran for putting the economy first.  Pakistan faces grave risks with its large population, the risks to the economy from oil prices at $125 a barrel to its balance of payments crisis. Turkey also faces risks to its economy with high inflation. Saudis and Qatar see their economic prospects as limited and need to cut economic projects as oil revenues decline. In this situation the US goal of getting nuclear material out of the country is now put into a phased process based on conditions for every step of the way by the US negotiators, yet with memorandum of understanding to accomodate a changing situation. This policy may also be now agreed on between China and the US, and to some extent Russia. This can be seen as playing out and media does not talk about it. China openly greets DJT in Beijing and US and China agree to work things out in May 2026. China cuts its oil use by 3 million barrels a day as shown in a WSJ report this week. This is a major step. UAE leaves OPEC and calls for cuts in oil prices. Next Delsy Rodriguez of Venezuela visits New Delhi, India, and meets to set up economic relationships that include large purchases of Iranian oil to replace supplies lost in Hormuz and what India can offer in exchange for these purchases to Venezuela, including infrastructure building support. This points to a Win-Win for the US, China, India, as oil needs are met from places other than Hormuz for major users of energy. China may have realized that its prolific use of oil for 25 years of rapid development may have led to wasteful use of oil- some of that wasteful use can now be cut- 3 million barrels of oil use cut accepting some slower growth for quality growth. Germany and Japan are using less energy per unit of GDP and China will be looking at their model of energy use as an example to follow. This has huge potential for limiting climate change, as without China and India becoming more efficient in energy use, nothing the US could do was going to make a big difference for climate change. This may be one of the unintended benefits of the Hormuz situation in 2026 - ways to cut energy use for climate change action. And ways to move away from Hormuz and Persian Gulf for supplies so that poorer countries and advanced economies have to pay less for oil helping the poorer countries (Pakistan, Turkey) survive and grow, helping middle economic status rapidly modernizing economies  continue rapid growth (China and India), and helping advanced economies with cost of living hurting the majority of their people (US and EU).  With less money Russia, Iran and other countries will face serious constraints for more military expenditures as for the first time alternative supplies (other than Hormuz) and lower oil prices are being brought about in a newly unfolding plan of the US, China, India and other nations, that is not discussed in today's world media headlines. This means when seen objectively there is room for optimism based on the one thing going for the US, China, India, EU, a host of poorer nations in Asia /Africa/ LatinAmerica, the  5 largest development blocs and population blocs today, which is that the US and China can agree on being custodians for peaceful development accepting their responsibilities for guaranteeing this world order- as DJT and Xi Jinping stated in Beijing in May 2026- with the US aim of nuclear free Iran also accepted by China, Russia, India, and large sections of the Iranian population that put the economy first. ...

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France nuclear deterrance doctrine is extended to Germany and European security in 2026. This is supported by Le Monde, and it goes along with "burden sharing" with other countries in Europe including Britain and Germany, Sweden in building up conventional forces as conventional deterrance that comes before and works with nuclear deterrance.

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Chinese flights near Taiwan or in Taiwan airspace have stopped for 10 days in March- to prepare for the visit by US president DJT to Beijing March 31-April 2, 2026. After US relations with Russian president Putin have improved, China may be seeking a similar kind of improvement in relations with the US.

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Putin visit to Beijing. Xi- Putin meeting in Beijing, May 20 2026 follows DJT visit by 2 weeks. China- Russia economic relations oil cover new oil and gas pipelines that reduce dependence for oil on the Persian Gulf region after Hormuz  Straits is blocked, and defense supplies for Russia in its war with Ukraine.

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Tiny sheikdoms such as Kuwait were set up in the heydays of the British Empire- in 2026 Kuwait's 1.5 million residents and 3 million expatriates face a completely stalled economy following the blocking of the Hormuz Straits. The kingdom is dependent now on $1 trillion reserve fund as it seeks to resume oil exports.

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US strikes on Kharg Island as deadline nears on April 7 2026, on military targets on Kharg. A two week ceasefire is arranged with Pakistan (and China's indirect) mediation. DJT to meet Xi in Beijing May 14-16 could lead to an extension of that ceasefire and oil prices gradually coming down.

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$150,000 or $250,000 income a year does not go far in 2026 when college costs $100,000 per child a year, housing is costly, hotels cost $300 a night and car rentals $100 a day, restaurants $50 a meal. A lot changed over the last 5 years with cost of living taking a sharp turn.

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Toyota's new startup Woven Planet was supposed to create a startup to produce the software that run's cars for today, and do this within a company that produces 10 million cars using tested quality control and factory efficiency methods. It has not worked as shown in this report in WSJ. Deadlines for the software were put off till 2027 and Toyota was falling behind. Toyota had planned a separate city near Mount Fuji for the company and separate cultural setting. This has not happened and Toyota is now integrating the software startup into its own operations bringing forward deadlines to 2025.

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The biggest decision coming out of the NATO and European Council meetings is Germany saying it supports stationing of long range missile systems in Germany by the US by 2026. German chancellor Scholz says the decision was a long time in the making and Germany supports it as a necessary step to secure the country. This happens as China's support to Russia continues through trade and economic relations and the Ukraine war prolonged for another year into 2025. Other decisions were to provide F-16's and added Patriot missile systems so that Ukraine can defend its skies from missile attacks.

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US census data shows Mexico exported $382 billion worth of goods to the US in 2022, an increase of 20% over 2021, according to US census data. American companies put more money into Mexico for investment than China in 2021. The high shipping costs and 2 weeks vs 2 months of shipping time are part of the reason companies are looking at Mexico as an alternative to China. The trade friction with the US and tariffs are added incentives for companies to shift manufacturing out of China. The shift is gradual as the infrastructure improvements in Mexico lag behind the infrastructure development in other countries in Asia.

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About 12 million women left the workforce in the US during the pandemic. Women gradually returned to where there are 1.2 million more women in the workforce as of March 2021. In the new workforce remote work is an option for two career couples with children, wages are up, child care is up. WSJ looks at the situation of a 51 year old  mother of two boys ages 10 and 11, whose husband is a surgeon in the military. She quits work during 2021, and restarts work in a remote work job in 2023. Another worker with children decided not to return to the workforce. 

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A 900 mile long frontline from Kherson on the Black Sea north to Luhansk stretches Ukraine's forces along a long line in June 2023. A Ukraine effort to retake areas lost to Russia in eastern Ukraine and near Crimea as part of the counter offensive is only making slow progress because of land mines and lack of airpower. The successful Ukraine effort in 2022 to retake Kherson happened in an area which had two rivers and where Russia faced logistical issues of supplying its troops. In 2023 both sides have prepared for some time and it is very difficult for both.

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Wages are now consistently up more than inflationary pressures since mid 2023 to July 2024 by about 0.6 to 1.0% in Labor Department graphs about cost of living. This is good news for the US economy. It shows the policy of president Biden investing in rebuilding infrastructure and Science/Chips, and renewable energy is delivering for the American people alongside cost of living actions by the Fed's Powell and Biden. For the first time since 2021US CPI index for inflation from the Labor Department drops below 3%. It drops to 2.9% for July 2024. The Consumer Price Index increasing by 2.9% over the same month in the prior year 2023. This shows a definite trend for the cost of living to moderate after the supply chain events that increased inflation leading to lagging efforts for wages to catch up- cost of living issues for ordinary Americans. The costs of medical care and automobiles, automobile repair, food, all moderating. Housing costs still to moderate with higher interest rates.  ...

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Criticism of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the WSJ for some overreaching actions. Yet also the failure of politicians including previous presidents Bush and Obama, that lead to a situation where huge burdens are placed on law enforcement lacking resources and numbers for missions that have placed on their shoulders the accumulated problems of decades. DJT says president Biden was not one to support the scale of illegal migration in 2020-2024 and open borders that happened, and seemed both unaware of the real situation and losing control of the situation. DJT's repeated reference to Biden using the robo-pen also refers to delegation to Biden's Homeland Security head Alejandro Mayorkas, who immigrated from Cuba in 1960 as a child and grew up in Los Angeles, and both Biden and Mayorkas failing to take strong action as the gravity of the situation became apparent in 2022-2023. The record 2.2 million encounters at the Mexican border in fiscal 2022 were the highest in history under Mayorkas, the first Latin American to head US Immigration Service and Deputy head of Homeland Security appointed by Obama. ...

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VW chairman Hans Dieter Poetsch tells reporters in Wolfsburg, Germany, that a small group of engineers starting working on emissions cheating software as early as 2005 when they could not find technical solutions to U.S. nitrogen oxide emissions within their timeframe and budget. When a technical solution was later available, it was not used. Poetsch said; " We are not talking about a one-off mistake, but a whole chain of mistakes that was not interrupted at any point along the time line."

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DHS Secretary Mullins makes changes at DHS April 2026, rescinding many of Kristi Noem's controversialpolicies such as requiring approval by the Secretary of DHS for all contracts over $100,000. This figure is now $25 million and above. Mullins told Congress he is "not a micro-manager."

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Small talk at G-8 Les Bains France June 17 2026, that includes Prime Minister Modi of India.

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Seen as IRA's these accounts in DJT's One Big Beautiful Act with the government investing $1000 of its money for every newborn's savings account is a powerful way to create wealth for the next generation. It is designed to be invested in funds that grow with the S&P 500, will be available in 2026. Lets look at the power of accumulation in a fund that has $3000 invested in it $1000 by the government, $1000 by a grandparent and $1000 by a parent. Over 10, 20 and 30 years. If the child has $3000 invested in it till he is 18 years this would have $54000 of payments made into the fund.   The actual S&P return has averaged 12-13% over the last 10 years 2023-2024. Including dividends it has grown to 249%. Assuming it grows at 10 percent a year ,the power of compound interest is huge- it will grow to $47,000 in 10 years, 147,000 in 20 years, and 349,000 in 30 years. This is 3 times the average IRA of 127,000 in 2025. Fidelity Investments shows average IRA in 2025 as as $127,000, for 30 year olds 104,000. In a good set of years this account alone would triple the retirement savings of ordinary Americans.   ...

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A moment of reflection by Joe Biden at the candlelit Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool in memory of the 400,000 Americans who died in the pandemic of 2020-2021. Mr. Biden plans to vaccinate 100 million Americans in the first 100 days.

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US stock funds are up 3.6% by Feb 9, 2025, on top of 17% gained in 2024.

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Independents make up the largest voting bloc in Arizona. Mr. Biden swung 60 precincts to win by 10,000 votes in 2020, and did well with independent voters. NYT looks at the situation in Arizona for 2024. Much depends on Maricopa county which includes Phoenix. About 60% of Arizona votes are in Maricopa county. Other states which are closely contested are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia.

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The Russian economy will suffer a loss of about 7% of GDP in 2022. After 2023 over the next five year period Russia will feel the effects of a drop in energy demand as it tries to find markets to replace European demand. The shift to renewables will accelerate in future years and will affect the demand for Russian fossil fuel supplies.