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June unemployment numbers will jump say experts at IHS Insight as GM and Chrysler downsize even more to become smaller companies with even less market share. This will reflect closing Pontiac and sale or closing of the other GM brands Saturn, Saab, and Hummer. It will reflect closing of more dealerships of GM and Chrysler. THis might be offset by a pickup in sales if something like the European trading clunkers for new cars program takes off in the USA. But with the US customers more in debt and with rising job losses, the pattern may be different in the US. It may only offer a small boost in sales. Manufacturing still matters in a recovery. In 1980 manufacturing was 20% of America's output, now it is 11.5% says Mark Zandl of Moody's Economy.com. Manufacturing, he says, has a bigger impact than its size suggests, because it responds quickly. As sales resume workers are called back to their jobs. The sharp V shaped recoveries in the early 80's reflected the rapid response of manufacturing. After the 1980's both the declines and the recoveries were shallow in 1990-1991 and 2001. Now with GM and Chrysler shrinking further under the government plan to fix these companies, and taking the supplier impact, the rebound leg of the V is missing. The kick from the Big Three and their suppliers is missing, says Nigel Gault of IHS Insight. Of the 5.7 million jobs lost from Jan 2008 to June 2009, 1.6 million were in manufacturing and 289,000 were in motor vehicles, split almost evenly between assemblers and supplier networks....

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Tata Projects Limited is the lowest of two bidders at 860 crores for India's new parliament building. The old parliament building is considered inadequate today and was first opened in 1927 when the British first introduced local legislatures as a form of home rule in India. The time allowed for it to be built is a strict 21 months and will require putting a new face on the central Vista area that runs through the centre of New Delhi. It should generate jobs, and provide a fitting place for debating the many issues that face India in its drive for modernization, particularly today after the pandemic when many issues such as manufacturing, industrial development defense, agricultural modernization, infrastructure development are taking on new urgency. After almost three decades of slow progress India is now entering a new phase for speed and implementation of projects.

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The WSJ of August 24 has flaws in that no questions were asked on wages and benefits for workers and climate change. About 73% of voters see Mr. Biden's age as a factor. Voters have not grasped Biden's vision for America. A Trump 10% margin for vision and record of accomplishments is unusual considering it is Mr. Biden who is making the changes on climate change, wages and income, infrastructure building with trillions of dollars of funding. The poll itself has issues because it was done by a Republican poster who is working for the Trump campaign and does not have questions on climate change or wages and benefits of workers. President Biden does well on infrastructure, on jobs, and the effects of inflation are being tackled by increase in wages and benefits supported by Biden.

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BYD is China's largest EV automaker. It boosted employment by 50% to 630,000 in 2023, with growth of 73%. This WSJ report shows how the Chinese government is now favoring EV automakers and the EV industry over Chinese internet companies such as Alibaba and Tencent that once played a large part in the economy.  $72 billion in tax breaks are provided by the government to EV automakers. Jobs have shrunk in internet companies during the pandemic with the Xi Jinping government moving away from housing and internet industries creating higher unemployment. Youth unemployment had reached 21%. The growth of BYD by 73% in the 8 months of 2023 shows how the EV industry will play a larger role in the economy, along with other new industries and technologies. It will also become an export leader with domestic innovation in technologies.

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The NFP Front populaire alliance of socialist parties wins the most seats 200+ in early projections in the National Assembly in France. Macron's Ensemble party comes in second with about 150 seats, and the RN National Rally third with about 130 seats. This is the most closely watched election in European Union in decades. Voter turnout was 67% up from 48% in the last election. Only the Front Populaire called for investment in the French economy- not the Macron Ensemble or the Le Pen RN party- and taking serious cost of living action for gas prices, food prices, transport prices, for the struggling lower and middle classes in France. With corporations and the super rich paying their fair share- also a modest share- investment of $140 billion is planned for infrastructure, manufacturing, jobs and wages, climate change action in the French Nation.

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XI Jinping tells China's National People's Congress that "western nations- including the US- have implemented all round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to development." Addressing the private sector Chamber of Commerce representatives which create significant number of jobs in China he said the Communist Party "has always regarded private enterprises and private entrepreneurs as our own people, and will always support them whenever they run into difficulties." Job creation in China is a challenge with high youth unemployment estimated at about 20%. The pandemic worsened the situation for state finances and for unemployment for migrants, the construction slowdown has added to this. The burden of trillions of dollars of local government debt increased during the pandemic with the central government lacking the resources to help, creating problems in the local economies.  This WSJ report says Xi's speech seeks to present his government's performance in the light of these challenges and future challenges as growth slows in China. The trading relationship with US-EU added to employment and income problems for China's economy and people, yet it had one weakness an over concentration in manufacturing in one country that European and US business placed in one country. The building of a  new supply chain that creates manufacturing in other countries to reduce this concentration, and the limits placed on access to western technologies by China to protect US-EU in competition, places new development challenges for China, which Xi alludes to. In the past China was able to use huge stimulus to tackle its debt by creating more growth that supported this debt creation. The pandemic may finally have reversed this as trillions of dollars of debt have built up, and construction of homes and infrastructure has reached a saturation point. This is the kind of situation that Japan entered in the 1990's after three decades of torrid growth and development rates. History is being repeated as China like Japan is entering a new phase of an aging society. In this sense the challenges China is facing are very different from that of Russia. Creating jobs is a perennial problem in India and China with their large populations and rising aspirations of people after centuries of underdevelopment, something that Europe including Russia does not face in anywhere to a similar degree. in this sense there is more in common between the EU and Russia even when they are in a war, than Russia and China, and China has more in common with India. The struggle in Europe as Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has pointed out in his History of Europe, is more about the balance of power which is the story of European history since the 1450's where no one country has been allowed to act with impunity in invading its neighbors and other countries formed a concerted group to prevent this. Be it France, Austria, Britain or Russia that acted seemingly with impunity. China has little to do with it or Europe's history. President Biden is right to say that the US only competes with China in the economic and business fields, and seeks to find common ground on climate change and food insecurity. The US has supported China throughout the twentieth century since the time of Woodrow Wilson in 1913, around the period when Tsinghua University was established with US help. The US helped China during the Japanese invasion and the Cold War period ended with renewed relations.  ...

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China's tariffs on US products could be called self-respect tariffs as US exports to China are small compared to China's $1 trillion surplus a year. $143 billion mainly oilseeds and grains! US business not willing to rely on US labor created the outshoring that built Chinese industrial growth, shipping out technology in the process, that created this situation. Consultants to Apple at the time such as myself bringing Total Quality of Management from Japan to the US, could see the failure of production quality at the Colorado Springs plant just before Steve Jobs returned to the company in 1998. About 20-25% of PC product was defective on the production lines seen with my own eyes. Looking back I believe it was not just the workers but the managers and engineering that needed to guide and motivate the workers with new ways to build in quality control. These were the days when Apple's Steve Jobs hired Tim Cook to revamp production and ship it to China. American workers got blamed. Yet as Jim Carlton shows in "Apple the Inside Story of Intrigue, Egomania, and Business Blunders," by 1996 a new German CEO Michael Spindler 1993-1996 had driven the company to the ground. The struggle with Microsoft gave Jobs an idea- by shifting production to a low cost location he could make the high margins to outinvest all competitors with new products-ipods, iphones, ipads. There is nothing wrong with American workers and their craftsmanship. Timeline- Steve Jobs returns to Apple 1997-1998 Tim Cook is hired from Compaq to revamp manufacturing in 1998 1999-2000 - the strategy is made to shift all of the production to China. Jobs could generate the margins and quality to challenge Microsoft, and profits to invest in new products 2020 -   the weakness of the strategy is apparent with supply side shock for chips and computers with the pandemic stopping shipping 2024 - after taking small steps to shift production to India does little to shift back to America 2025- Apple facing serious tariffs and the country's mood shifting to Make in the USA tells the new US president DJT it will invest $500 billion to shift production back to America. ...

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In 2024 gender has receded into the background it is all about how to help ordinary Americans, workers and families, and children, and seniors. Harris is all about the Way Forward and the opportunity Economy, tackling the cost of living and jobs, higher wages.

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Does a 10% reduction in tariffs on China with the October 30 2025 agreement- made in Busan South Korea at APEC meetings- make a difference for companies relocating from China? It only does for smaller companies who are stuck with Chinese sources. Larger American companies prefer to diversify their supply chain and continue to relocate part of their factories to Vietnam, India and other countries knowing that the tariffs game will end up with allies EU, Japan and India in the 10-15% tariff range as a concession to US for putting up with trade disadvantages and job losses 2000-2025. China's will still be at 47% in comparison and the fentanyl issue causing serious questions to be asked by the American people which have not been grasped in China or even in the US by companies and politicians.   Does it affect the urgency and general shift out of China? The fentanyl issue is unlikely to change and it is likely to do lasting damage to China's credibility to a degree that it not clearly understood in China, and even not fully grasped even in the US today because of the sheer size of the number dead- more young Americans dead from fentanyl than in the Korean, Vietnam and First World Wars combined. Other issues are technology that has been transferred without a proper assessment of the importance to national security, the need to shift the manufacturing base back home that US industries have inadvertently and carelessly shifted to China in the disastrous Bush and Obama years 2000-2016, and for the jobs, the wages, and cost of living concerns when supply chains are outside one's control. This article asks the question about tariffs on India and Brazil as being contradictory and showing a lack of consistency in tariffs. India is compared to China with India facing a 50% tariff because of Russian oil purchases, and Brazil a 100% tariff related to treatment of former president Bolsonaro even though US has a trade surplus with Brazil. One expects that at some point India and the US will come to an agreement that lowers the tariffs in a way that was done with the European Union to bring it closer to 10%. China's tariff to be sure is still around 47% dropping from 57% a concession for rare earths and for the upcoming elections and economic concerns not because of policy intent which has not changed on  strong action for fentanyl which is also part of the Appeal to the People in the DJT base.   ...

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The job of harvesting 24 billion cherries in the short harvesting season.

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Melissa Eddy of the NYT provides this exceptional account of the debate in Germany on national priorities, as the child care educators represented by the Verdi service workers union go on strike for a 10% increase in wages. Workers at entry level jobs in manufacturing represented by strong unions earn the same pay as teachers in child care centers and early childhood education who have many years of experience. The child care education workers are supported by the federal family minister, SDP minister Manuela Schwesig, who says that the additional experience and education upto university level of the child care educators in early childhood education should be recognized. Schwesig said: "We need a debate in Germany on how much we value the work of those who take care of the early education of our children and with young adults." One aspect of the 240,000 child care educators strike has drawn less attention. This is the gender pay gap as a large percentage of educators in childcare centers are women. Equal Pay Day in Berlin was organized for June 5, to call for equal pay for women who have fallen behind in pay. Data from the European Commission in 2014 shows Germany ranks third to last in gender pay equality, with only Estonia and Austria trailing behind, as cited by Deutsche Welle. Schwesig who attended the rally pointed out: "When women, despite equal work and education, earn less than their male colleagues, it is not only unfair. It is wrong." While Germany has moved ahead in quotas for female employees, women in boardrooms, parental leave, this does not help women in critical areas such as early childhood education and elderly care, which suffer from a large pay gap with men working in manufacturing jobs. ...

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Krugman on tax breaks for large corporations that do not create jobs and large cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.

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China's carefully planned stimulus in April 2014. It is designed to balance goals of not letting credit growth lead to a bubble and preserving a high enough growth rate of 7% to create 10 million new jobs each year. The smaller stimulus will be financed by the federal government which has more leeway than local governments burdened with debt. The stimulus is focussed on low income housing and railways. Pension funds, banks and other financial institutions will be encouraged to invest in shantytowns to create low income housing. Railways construction is focussed on southern and western China. Part of the rail construction is designed with the goal of creating export based industry in the interor of the country. IMF reports say this may not work out as planned as businesses may prefer to remain in the coastal or eastern part of the country.

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Competing interests of the U.S. and China on issues such as jobs, currency and trade. Chinese stalling over currency revaluation.

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The $3.5 trillion bill of president Biden to help America get back on its feet after the pandemic and after years of neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing technologies, child care, health and education, is that much only if offsetting tax increases and spending cuts are not included. When this is taken into account the US is spending about $871 billion to rebuild its economy and for a better life for Americans. That is the estimate provided in the report September 13 by the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.

Experts say that if president Trump's bill- Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was calculated without offsetting cuts and tax increases the same bill would be $5.5 trillion package.

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The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

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The Economist cites figures showing Canada lost 500,000 manufacturing jobs since 2005, with employment in manufacturing down to 1.7 million by 2013. From 2000 to 2013 manufacturing's share of GDP declined from 18% to 10%. This situation is shown by the decaying manufacturing towns seen in Ontario. About 500,000 manufacturing jobs were lost between 2005 and 2013, as the price of oil increased to the $100-$120 range and the Canadian currency was overvalued, leaving the Canadian economy more dependent on energy exports. Some of the auto manufacturing supplier base has shifted from the midwest to southern U.S. states, reducing the attractiveness of Ontario for manufacturing investment. Overvalued currencies have hurt the manufacturing sector of commodity producing countries dependent on exports of mining products or oil, especially Brazil and Canada. The depreciation of the Canadian currency in 2014-2015 may not help, as many of these jobs are not likely to return.

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A critical point mentioned is that for a heavy polluter like China, the slowdown means less production of heavy industry like cement and steel that produces few jobs and has large emissions. The slowdown is an opportunity to make a transition to a greener economy that creates more jobs. The spokesperson for the European Commission says it depends on the vision and foresight of European, American and Chinese leadership whether they use the transition as a short term bitter apple to create new sectors that help in conservation, the environment, and for jobs, all at the same time. Government incentives and mandates, education, and leadership may be critical to doing this. Business and the private sector and markets can be shortsighted in this respect, and lack the will and staying power to see it through, leading to suboptimal results at best or destructive results as critical time is lost in indecision or inaction.

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China chooses periodic blockades or air-sea coordinated exercizes around Taiwan's 12 mile waters as a strategy to respond to US Indo-Pacific strategy of keeping lanes of sea traffic and navigation on oceans open to all nations. This is seen as less risky than an outright invasion. Military exercises in August 2022 are seen as preparing for such a strategy.  The US is the destination for $541 billion and Europe $521 billion in products Made in China in 2021, which make China the manufacturing powerhouse in the world. Without the export of $1 trillion in Chinese products thousands of factories and millions of Chinese workers would remain idle. It is unbelievable that China is risking so much with its Taiwan policy with no idea of what the consequences would be years from now. It took China three decades after the gradual opening by 1990 and a willingness on the part of American and European governments and business to give up much of their own manufacturing leading to loss of jobs in communities across both America and Europe and much pain from this loss, for China to get to $1 trillion in exports. This situation may never come back as the supply chains shift and jobs return home and to countries that are becoming competitive in infrastructure and capabilities in Asia. Such competition between nations is not unknown as it was with Imperial Japan in the Pacific just 100 years back. The US maintains its position as keeping navigation on the oceans of the world open and rule of law, and it is on these foundations that China was able to get the strong manufacturing and exporting position it has now that no nation has enjoyed in history to this extent. Only the British come close in the nineteenth century. So much of China's progress in the twentieth century was a result of cooperation and support from America, from the first university Tsinghua in Beiijing, to the war against imperialist forces of Japan, to the rebuilding of China's manufacturing and technological competitiveness with American business cooperation. ...

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Read the full speech of president Biden at an important time in the Nation's history, 76 days before a national election to decide the future of the Nation and the World. Excerpts from the speech selected by Lyrarc- "Look. Folks, how can we have the strongest economy in the world without the best infrastructure in the world? Donald Trump promised Infrastructure Week, every week for four years, and he never built a damn thing.  And now because of what Kamala and I have done—remember, we were told we couldn’t get it done? Remember, when we came into office, we couldn’t get anything passed?—but right now, we’re giving America an infrastructure decade not week. We’re modernizing our roads, our bridges, our ports, our airports, our trains, our buses, removing every lead pipe from schools and homes so every child could drink clean water. We’re providing affordable high speed internet for every American no matter where they live, unlike, not unlike what Roosevelt did with electricity. And so much more. We are uniting the country, we’re growing our economy, we’re improving our quality of life, and we’re building a better America. Because that’s who we are. How can we be the strongest nation in the world without leading the world in science and technology? After years of importing 90% of our semiconductor chips from abroad, which America invented those chips, our CHIPS and Science Act meant that private companies from around the world are now investing literally tens of billions of dollars to build new chip factories right here in America. And over that period, they’ll create tens of thousands of jobs. And many of those jobs in the so-called Fabs, the buildings that make the chips that are being constructed now. And guess what? The average salary in those fabs, size of a football field, will be over $100,000 a year, and you don’t need a college degree.  ...

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US Senate increases debt limit increase to $5.1 trillion from House 3B Tax Cuts Bill debt limit of $4.1 trillion in 2025. The Big Bold Beautiful Bill as the president calls it will also make the debt limit increase permanent to avoid the brinksmanship of earlier administrations. Republicans will pass this as they assume the mantle of working for the average middle class and working class household. Republicans have taken up the cause of small businesses in the US who are supported by this bill. The bill in the view of Treasury Secretary Bessent helps growth of the economy through its 100% expensing provisions, so that the capital expenditures spending of small and large businesses on equipment and buildings that is now held up will take place  rapidly in the coming year. The 3B Tax Cuts Bill does decrease the taxes of the higher income households, yet it also decreases the taxes of small business owners, and of people in the middle income range. Similar bills in the Reagan period led to a larger share of national income going to a majority of the population, and increasing growth and investment. This bill's expensing provisions goes a step further to release capex energies. During the Carter period before Reagan and the Biden period before Trump's second term the lower income classes were cheated out of their income's propensity for a better standard of living by inflation. Republican administration of DJT has focused on inflation to help working class people and focused on capital investment to generate the growth that will increase jobs. ...