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Dana Milbank of the WP says the views of some Democrats on Trump as a good Republican nominee based on the notion that he has high negative perception with voters is fraught with dangers for U.S. democracy. Milbank points out that this ignores what is good for the country. Having Trump as the nominee of one of the two main parties would create a divisive atmosphere and is not good for the country, says Milbank. In comparing Trump with Cruz, he says Trump is likely to follow his instincts to operate outside the U.S. constitutional system. Cruz as a person believes in the U.S. constitution and would never endorse violence or action against minorities. Cruz has not done enough to come across as a likable person with his persistent focus on conservative or Reagan values to the exclusion of everything else. This is changing in mid-April 2016 following a CNN interview with the Cruz family, a MSNBC town hall answering questions from undecided voters, and NYT coverage of Cruz at a Brooklyn bakery, that shows a different human face that people have never seen about Cruz. Cruz's self-deprecating humor in a NYT article where he talks about voters not liking "a hectoring scold," is part of this needed change that could have happened earlier in the campaign. About Trump Milbank cites Conservative party prime minister Cameron who says Trump would unite all Britons against him if he ever came to Britain....

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Chinese exporters are required to bring their revenue in dollars after covering costs such as imported materials, back into China, exchanging it with the central bank for yuan. This foreign currency is the main source of the Chinese foreign exchange reserves of $2.6 trillion. The system was based on an earlier period when China worried about capital outflows. Now with rising inflation, and a lot of money circulating in the economy after the recent stimulus and huge lending surge, China is rethinking this practice. Hu Xiaolian, vice governor of the People's Bank of China, says it makes it harder to control liquidity levels in China in todays situation.Because of this China's government is easing controls and letting exporters keep more of their revenues earned overseas. However with the expected declining value of the dollar Chinese exporters may prefer to convert their dollars into yuan. Some companies may want to accumulate dollars and other overseas foreign currency for investments abroad. The difference with Japan is striking. For Japan, also a major exporter, the bulk of foreign currency assets are held by companies, which are available for use to invest in manufacturing and other assets. By concentrating these decisions in the state, China has accumulated a huge reserve of foreign exchange. But this also creates major problems as China is concerned about the impact of the declining dollar on its huge holdings of US treasury debt. ...

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All sectors of the U.S. economy see an increase in hiring, including retail, transportation, healthcare and manufacturing, as the economy adds 288,000 jobs in June, according to the Labor Department. Manufacturing added 16,000 jobs, transportation 17,000 and the public sector increased jobs by 26,000. Hiring also picked up for high school graduates compared to the poor record in 2013. In 2013 one Barclays economist says the jobs for high school graduates at this point were declining by 16,000 a month on yearly basis. He says employers are now adding 29,000 jobs for high school graduates a month in 2014. The unemployment for high school graduates declined to 5.8% in June 2014, for persons with some college education or an associate degree 5.0%, for college graduates 3.3%. Barclay's estimate is that the U.S. added an average of 231,000 jobs a month for the first half of 2014. The inflation rate remains at about 2%, giving the U.S. Fed more flexibility in setting rates to support jobs growth. The lower unemployment rate of 6.1% understates the underemployment, as a more accurate measure of employment which includes people working part time because they cannot find jobs is at 12.1%. The proportion of Americans in the labor force is also at a 36 year low of 62.8%. These two indicators for unemployment, unemployment including people working parttime, and the proportion of Americans in the labor force, combined with inflation, are the main indicators Fed chairmam Yellen is looking at....

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The transformation of Fiat Auto. Marchionne relying on "my kids", getting good people throughout the Fiat global operations and outside of a younger generation, who were open to doing things in a new way. He had the courage to unassumingly go about the business of remaking Fiat, by removing middle and upper managers who produced a kind of paralysis or sclerosis in Fiat, making change impossible after years of a failed culture embedding itself. And in their place he brought in an energetic courageous bunch of younger managers and designers. It would be fair to say that he tore up the old plans, tore up the old organization charts, tore up the car plans and designs in the pipeline, tore up the failed models and put in place new ones- the Bravo for the Stilo, and tore up the old management, put in new people and tasks and wedded them in an informal way, with their own culture developing along the way. The were teams and their tasks, all wedded together in an informal arrangement, in close proximity, with informal communication. Marchionne saw his role as helping people reach decisions, setting stretch goals, and encouraging levels below him to take responsibility and make courageous decisions. He saw the Cinquicento as his version of the Apple iPod, and benchmarked Fiat against Apple, so he was looking outside the auto industry for people to emulate and for new ideas. He himself was from outside the auto industry. ...

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How Starbucks changed from a customer oriented experience like the ones at expresso bars in Italy, to add sandwiches, lunches and drive through. And in the process diluted its customer oriented experience (conversation, place to meet European cafe style) and the experience of real coffee, upto the point that its main competitor became Dunkin Donuts in many places. Consumer Reports rates McDonalds drip coffee better than Starbucks. Baristas at Starbucks lament the loss of the atmosphere of the early Starbucks as sandwiches and other items are pushed in a fast food type environment. One could have seen this coming as Schultz was a Brooklyn kid who seemed to struggle with his fascination for the Italian expresso bars he saw in Italy, and his New York and American ways of popularizing this experience by building hundreds of locations and expanding quickly. In the process Starbucks became a different place and a different company without quite realizing it. The Brooklyn kid in Schultz won over the other side that remained intrigued by his experience in Italy. This is described in his autobiography, "Pour Your Heart Into It," somewhere the magic disappeared. This is amazing that a place can change and competition can creep in on you when you kind of lose your identity, and forget where you started, the dream and vision. See the separate article where Schultz has taken charge of Starbucks operations and let go of the CEO....

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Research on agricultural production and improving and protecting rice, wheat and other food crops has suffered in the last decade as budgets for research have been cut. The USA is in the middle of cutting its $59.5 million annual support for a global research network by 75%. This includes the funding for the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines which has suffered from budget cuts for years. Its amazing that this Institute is the world's main repository of rice seeds as well as genetic and other information about rice, the staple food in Asian and many other countries. This includes the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico. Agricultural experts have warned about this neglect for many years but have been ignored as the pace of industrialization took off in many developing countries and agricultural production was taken for granted. With the current crisis in agricultural production one would expect this cutting of research aid to be reversed, as President Bush asked Congress on May 1, 2008, for an extra $770 million to pay for food aid and to help improve agricultural productivity in developing countries. Its ironic that growth of food supplies has suffered just when incomes are improving in the developing countries leading to greater demand for beter food and nutrition and resulting in soaring food prices which cuts into that very effort to improve the nutrition and diets in the developing countries. ...

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India places a $3 billion order for 1200 electric locomotives and railway modernization with Siemens. It includes a 35 year contract for maintenance. The equivalent of 800,000 trucks can be replaced by these locomotives over the lifetime. Siemens CEO Roland Busch says "This will help India create the world's largest green rail network, as our locomotives will save the equivalent of 800 million tons of CO2 emissions over their lifecycles."

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Chancellor Scholz of Germany holds talks with PM Narendra Modi on growing ties between Germany and India in trade, clean energy and new technologies. Scholz is on a two day trip to New Delhi and Bengaluru. The trip takes place in the backdrop of G-20 talks in India.

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Chancellor Scholz's visit to India with the heads of 12 large German companies and heads of medium size company business associations will lead to increasing economic cooperation between Germany and India. Bilateral trade is about 25 billion dollars. German companies such as Siemens are suppliers of rail locomotives for modernization of India's rail network. Topics for talks include the geopolitical situation in Europe with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, cooperation on climate change, utilization of German technologies, and increasing investment by German companies in India's economy.

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As India takes on the presidency of the G20 in December the first steps are being taken by the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to build closer ties with India. The Hindu gives this intervew with Baerbock that shows Germany's keen interest in building the India Germany partnership. This sets the stage for the bi-annual India Germany summit meeting, with German chancellor Scholz to visit India in early 2023. Some of Baerbock's comments show energy and enthusiasm for India to work closely with Europe. "Our countries have so much to offer one another. We want to tap that enormous potential. One such example is the concrete agreement we will sign during my visit, making it a lot easier for both Indians and Germans to study, research and work in our respective countries." "Today's era is not the era of war, that was Mr Modi's message to Putin- that was the resounding message and I highly appreciate India's seminal role in achieving this." ...

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Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel announced that she will not seek reelection. She will finish her term in 2021 and retire from politics. She led the CDU party for 18 years and Germany for thirteen years. She started out as a youth leader in the communist German Democratic Republic shortly before the collapse of the Berlin Wall. After reunification she was given roles in the government by Chancellor Kohl of the CDU, and was favored by Kohl.  During her years in office the CDU moved to the centre adopting some of the policies of the Social Democrats party. Merkel's last two terms were marked by her leadership of the European Union in tackling the debt crisis in Greece and other countries. Her leadership of the CDU was challenged by conservative leaders from Bavaria of the CSU party who had different views than Merkel on immigration and accepting wartime and economic refugees. By the beginning of her current term in office the CDU and the Social Democrats Party which alternated in running Germany in the postwar period had lost support as voters shifted their allegiances to parties on the right such as the AfD opposing immigration, and parties on the left, and to the Greens party advocating environmental issues. One of the main drawbacks during this period were the austerity policies during Merkel's terms in office that were implemented in the EU leading to higher unemployment before a tenuous recovery, and the lack of building infrastructure. The acceptance of a large number of refugees the official tally being about 890,000 entering Germany in 2017 and 200,000 in 2018, has strained the system and created tensions in society. About 480,000 had applied for asylum in Germany by the end of December 2017. Merkel defends her decision to accept refugees in these numbers, yet she says she was wholly unprepared for the influx of refugees that happened in 2017 and the year before. She says she wishes she had many more years experience to prepare herself for handling a crisis of this kind. The decision has created dissension in Germany especially in the eastern part which was part of the former communist German Democratic Republic.  ...

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Incidents of pollution and contamination of the water supply from the Huangpu river to Shanghai.

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The U.S. and Turkey launch a major effort with the help of Kurdish forces against ISIS on the Turkish border. U.S. backed forces are on an offensive with U.S. air support across Syria and Iraq. This particular effort called "Euphrates Shield" is coordinated between the U.S. and Turkey to cut ISIS supply routes to Turkey.

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Jean Claude Trichet is one of the last leaders from a generation that helped create the euro currency union and a pathway to closer union of European nations. For four decades he has worked at the upper echelons of European economic policy making. In accepting the Charlemagne prize he stayed true to his idea for closer integration in the European Union. He said- "Confronting the challenges of the future requires strengthening the institutions of economic union." He would like to see a finance ministry for the EU, saying that "in this union of tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, would it be too bold...to envisage a ministry of finance of the Union?" Such a ministry would exercize oversight over European nations economic policies and exercize veto power over national budgets. In the current crisis in Greece such a ministry could take actions and make decisions applicable to Greece. Trichet's remarks were delivered in Aachen, Germany. At the very same time finance ministry officials from 24 European countries were meeting in Vienna to come up with a solution to the Greece debt crisis. A main stumbling block is disagreement between Germany and others including the ECB, about how to make private-sector creditors share the burden of helping Greece avoid a default. Trichet and the European central bank and other central bankers have rejected Germany's insistence of an extension on the maturities of Greece's bonds, because they fear this would be perceived as a default by financial markets.This in turn would lead to contagion effects spreading to Spain and Italy, and a Europe wide crisis. In direct exchanges between Trichet and French president Sarkozy, Sarkozy has told Trichet he represents the bankers views whereas Sarkozy and Merkel have to take public opinion into account. In fact in past resolutions of financial crises in Latin America this type of extension of maturities for bonds has been applied, as for instance in the Brady Bonds and negotiated settlement arranged by the U.S. for banks, and Latin American and some Asian governments. Search term "brady" and see Landon Thomas's piece Nov. 30, 2010, in the NYT. This becomes necessary when countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal are unlikely to ever be able to repay the debt without a renegotiation of the original debt agreemments, spreading the debt over longer maturities, and private creditors taking some losses. By shifting the entire burden on austerity and spending cuts the current agreements leave the EU lurching from crisis to crisis as the underlying situation remains unresolved. It is here that Trichet's laudable vision of European unity runs aground because of the failure to build bridges between the outlook of the financial community and the public opinion of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other countries. The governments of creditor countries such as Germany seek a renegotiation for a restructuring of debt. The governments of Greece, Ireland and Portugal understand that severe austerity cuts alone with declining growth can never resolve the situation, and would welcome a restructuring especially because the cuts are deeply unpopular. The renegotiation has to be conducted with the full faith and credibility of the European governments, ECB and the support of the U.S. government, so that financial markets are given a certain reassurance that the situation will be managed to a successful conclusion, and not lead to contagion effects on Spain and Italy. When asked about this Nicholas Brady recently said this required "a unified decision." This would include money set aside for recapitalization of European banks that are affected by such a restructuring. In such a restructuring the German government and other European governments would still come up with taxpayer money for the resolution, yet the shared cost by all parties would create a fair and workable financial arrangement that has the potential for successful resolution to the sovereign debt crisis. This disconnect between the political leaders and the bankers is why observers say the Europeans have not been able to wrap their arms around this problem. ...

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By July 2013 only about 40% of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation rules were completed, 60% of deadlines were missed, according to law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP. A singular aspect of the Dodd-Frank legislation was that rule making was left to regulators in different agencies and open to lobbying by the financial industry. This has the effect of delaying the rule making until a consensus is reached, diluting some of the original intent as financial firms jockey for advantage, and making it voluminous in many cases because of the wording designed to achieve consensus and account for objections by various interests. Reform legislators such as Barney Frank openly said they had no interest in learning enough about the financial industry to do the rule making, and may have left an excessive amount of the rule making to regulators in the future. A consumer protection agency was established under the new law and derivatives are required to be traded on exchanges. The Volcker Rule to separate investment banking from deposit taking and a requirement that banks hold onto a portion of mortgage securities marketed are not completed. The S.E.C. has to write the rule on how much money brokerages must set aside for losses on swap trades. Another bubble in financial markets would leave the U.S. and European economies vulnerable to problems similiar to the global financial crisis of 2008, which is why the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European regulatory authorites are requiring large banks to set aside more capital reserves. The S.E.C. under its new chief is also taking a more active role in overseeing the banks for violations of securities laws, including a series of actions taken against JP Morgan Chase bank in 2013. This has a deterrent effect as the huge monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce unemployment also creates bubble conditions in financial markets, according to Fed governor, Jeremy Stein. Former FDIC chief, Sheila Bair, says the lack of leadership in this area is simply astonishing....

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The deal for buyout of Alitalia by Air France-KLM values Alitalia at0.10 euros a share about 80% below its closing share price of 0.53 euros per share last week. Air France-KLM will give one of its shares for 160 shares of Al Italia and will take on the airlines 1.3 billion euros in debt and losses of a millon euros a day. This values Alitalia at 139 million euros. The Italian Government has put in 4.3 billion euros in the last 5 years to keep Alitalia running till the European Comission ruled out any further help. Alitalia's market share in Italy has dropped to discount airlines like Air One Easyjet and Ryanairdropping from 80% to 30% in the last ten years. The new deal will drop Milan's airport considered to be one of the worst in Europe as a hub and use the airport in Rome ast he third hub after Paris and Amsterdam. It will also retain the Alitalia name. The fire sale of Al Italia shows how the new economic climate is affecting Europe and how a recession in the US could affect the market. At the time Al Italia was also running out of cash with only 282 million euros of cash left at the end of Jan 2008....

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This report in DW.com discusses the quick rise of Annalena Baerbock, 40 years, to the co-leader role with better known Robert Habeck, 51 years, at a party conference in 2018. In the winter of 2019 she was supported by a huge 97% of delegates at the party conference, with Habeck getting 90%. She has an advantage in foreign policy issues with her education in England at the London School of Economics, where she studied for her Masters degree in International Law. She speaks fluent English, rare in German politics. Baerbock spent 1 year in the US when she was only 16 years old. Very useful now with changes in Europe, the US and India. Boris Johnson in Britain, Biden in the US, and Modi in India, all speaking English.  She has spoken up against xenophobia, and being from Potsdam in the east is able to understand issues facing East Germany. A big change Baerbock says happened in 2019. Then she and Habeck decided to open up the Greens to become a big tent party that welcomes people from all sides. This was a smart choice at the time as Germans moved away from the two main parties- the SPD and the CDU. Dismay from the Schroder years when working class issues were ignored, and dissatisfaction with the Merkel years when investments in infrastructure, social care, health, education were neglected.  AfD support has stalled with the end of the migrant crisis and immigration no longer an issue. Baerbock says today of that 2019 party conference- "What we knew then was that we wanted to open our party up, that we wanted to make policies for a broad society: inviting and with clear objectives. Here today I want to make an offer, for the whole of society, as an invitation to lead our diverse, strong, rich country into a good future." Key changes that could happen in Germany in 2022- Phase out of coal powered energy by earlier date than 2038. No support for increased defense spending. Yet this is not likely to be an issue with the new American Biden administration. Infrastructure and vital investments in health and education would become a top priority similar to the US, UK and India. Careful policy coordination by Germany with the US, UK, France, India and Japan, and other EU nations, as the world shifts into a period in which lessons learned from the pandemic and the last three decades lead to renewal of supply channels and renewal of societies.   ...

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The FDIC help to troubled borrowers with housing loans from IndyMac which was taken over by the FDIC, could serve as a model for help to other troubled mortgage holders.

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Biden meets workers of the Culinary Workers Union in Las Vegas as he campaigns for the Nevada primary. Biden says he recognizes that there is a lot of work to do to get worker enthusiasm up, as this has been a difficult period for workers in the hospitality industry that is the main industry in Nevada. This is an industry that was affected badly by the pandemic and is only now recovering. Cost of living is a major issue with the union negotiating for wage increases. Nevada needs to have jobs from manufacturing and other industries to support its young people.

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Risks in the all busainess class airline niche as Maxjet files for bankruptcy failing to hold onto the air routes into London because American Airlines added flights into Stansted and other airports and squeezed out Maxjet in these routes.

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Robert Lighthizer, U.S. Trade Representative, makes a passionate plea for the dignity of work in America, the founding principle for the society of opportunity that America has been and the reason it was settled by immigrants from Europe over 200 years. He points out that trade policy is not about geopolitics or about efficiency as others perceive, it is about what kind of society we want to live in. Is it about a society of opportunity? This is the foundation on which this American continent was settled by settlers from Britain and Europe, and the basis of the growth over two hundred years till the last four decades. From 2000 and China's entry into the World Trade Organization under president Clinton to 2016 the U.S. manufacturing base has shrunk with the loss of five million jobs, two million jobs lost to China in the period 1999-2011 alone. And 350,000 automobile manufacturing jobs to Mexico since 1994, one third of all U.S. automobile jobs. Without the initiative and hard work of Mr. Lighthizer both American workers and Mexican workers would be stuck in low paying jobs. The USMCA he negotiated changed all that by giving Mexican workers fair wages and American workers and manufacturing the opportunity for revival.  This view was also expressed by Intel founder Andy Grove, a founder of one of the first pioneer companies in Silicon Valley. Grove asked the question after seeing the outsourcing of production out of America and the condition of the American worker- he said for him it was about what kind of society he wanted to live in. It was all about the dignity of the American worker long ignored by economists who live in a world of theory and the elite that has lived for so long apart from the places where the fabric of American workers and working life was torn apart. It was a question that touched Andy Grove's heart just as it does for Robert Lighthizer and others who are fighting to make America a society of opportunity for the American worker and opportunity for the American people, for dignity in America. It also charts a new course for the French worker, the British worker, the Indian worker, as other countries learn from the American experience. We have covered Grove and Lighthizer from the early days of their leadership and wise reminders to the people of what America is and stands for. Lighthizer points out one huge error that makes the thinking of these economists and elite that have not listened for so long, more than a bit crazy, reckless and callous. He says there about half of 250 million adults who lack a college diploma in America. Historically manufacturing has provided stable well paying employment. Even if with investment in education they were taught to write software code, there aren't enough jobs for them. The combined total of jobs at Apple Google, Facebook and Netflix is 300,000 jobs. Never has so much been at stake for so many and defended by so few. ...

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For anyone trying to understand the Middle East read the gripping story told in Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's own words-"The Great Speech- Nutuk," it is on Kindle Amazon. It shows week after week  Mustafa Kemal as he fought the colonial powers  the British and the French, and then turned a Caliphate into a modern country. If the Vietnamese who fought the French were seen by JFK in the way he saw Ataturk (hear JFK's words on Ataturk in Lyrarc.com) then there would be no Vietnam War. Ataturk's Republican People's Party in opposition for 2 decades wins by a landslide in Turkey's main cities- in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa and Antalya. In Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu wins by a margin of 11.5 percentage points. In Ankara Mansur Yavas wins by a margin of 28 percentage points. Voter turnout was 78% surpassd only by the 87% turnout in the presidential election. Imamoglu is now the contender for the presidency. This is a delayed reaction by voters to the economy with inflation having reached 86% in February and a slowdown in growth, with hardships for ordinary families. Ozgur Ozel, 52 years, replaced an aging civil servant Kilicdaroglu who hung to leadership for 13 years losing repeatedly to Mr. Erdogan and not able to exceed a 25% of the votes. Imamoglu supported Ozel to change leadership of the party founded by Kemal Ataturk in fighting for Turkey's independence from foreign powers in the 1920's. Under Ozel-Imamoglu leadership the Republican party won 38% of the vote to 35% for Erdogan's Justice Party. This is a historic win and sets Turkey on a new path, which could also set a new path for the Arab nations in the Middle East because of the tone of moderation and modernization, good governance, scientific mind, set by Kemal Ataturk. Hear JFK's remarks on the 25th anniversary of Ataturk in Lyrarc.com. If JFK had said the same for another nation building effort in Vietnam similar to that of Ataturk there would be no Vietnam War but a negotiated peace- that is if Kennedy was alive and his life not cut short in 1963.  Few people in US and Europe even know how Kemal Ataturk founded the Republic in the place of the Caliphate type of structure in Ottoman Empire, and defended his homeland from the French and British colonial powers who sought to dismember Turkey, then the remaining parts of the Ottoman Turk Empire. It is told in his own words in the Kindle book "The Great Speech Nutuk," and it is a story that is gripping in its detail of the fight against colonial powers effort to dismember Turkey in the 1920's and even maintain the old Ottoman structures to their benefit. The story is told as if it was happening right in front of our eyes. ...