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German banks have commited 60% of their capital in loans to the shipping indusry, according to Moody's Investors Service. The 10 largest German banks have loaned 98 billion euros to the shipping industry and provided a surge of credit to the industry that has led to structural overcapacity. This includes Commerzbank and banks in Hanover and Hamburg. Under German law investors make tax free profits in this popular tax shelter. Experts in Hamburg say the container industry ordered too many ships and banks provided easy credit, resulting in an oversupply, declining cargo shipping prices, and losses at shipping companies. HSH Nordbank in Hamburg, owned by local governmnts and savings banks, says it need 1.3 billion euros in guaranees from Hamburg and the state of Schleswig -Holstein. Moody's affirmed the negative outlook for German banks partly because of the bad loans in shipping.

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Citigroup CEO Michael Corbat's plans to make 11,000 job cuts, about 4% of the workforce, and close 84 branches. Most of the cuts will take place in consumer banking with 6200 cuts, and in the investment bank and transaction services with about 1900 cuts. Citigroup has reduced its workforce by 100,000 since the end of 2007 after the bank was hit by the global financial crisis. Analysts at Credit Agricole Securities and Fitch Ratings say this does not go far enough. Fitch Ratings says the cuts reduce expenses by only 2% of annual expenses and are modest moves. The cuts at the investment bank do not compare with more aggressive action taken by UBS CEO Ermotti. Goldman Sachs analyst Ramsden says the investment bank represents 60% of assets but generates only 30% of revenue, a highly inefficient use of resources.

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Lee says India started fom alower base but has made greater gains for the rural poor.India's urban-rural income gap has steadily declined since the earlier 1990's. And in the last decade economic growth in rural India has outpaced growth in urban areas by almost 40%. Rural India acccounts for almost half of the GDP, up from 46% in 1993. Lee points out that in the period of Deng's reforms right upto the Tiananmen Square massacre China made 80% of th poverty reduction, but since 2000 poverty and illiteracy have doubled in China, while they have been halved in India. DOmestic consumption as apart of GDP has fallen to 35% from around 60% in the 1980's. Lee is a foreign policy fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney, and avisiting scholar at the Hudson Institute.

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This NYT editorial points to the dangers lurking behid the jobless numbers. The House bill that passed recently for $154 billion to extend unemployment benefits- set to expire in Feb 2010- to June 2010, and increases aid to local and state governments. It also includes infrastructure spending and help for small business. But it does not do enough for young people whose joblesness is at all time high. For instance only 4 in 100 low income black students found work in Fall 2009 This according to a study by the Northeastern University Center for Labor Market Studies. According to the analysis done by this Center the employment rates among teenagers has risen four times faster than the rate among adults since 2000, and todayme over 65 are more likely to find jobs than youth of 16-19 years.

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The employment to population ratio in August 2011 was 58.2%, down from 62.7% in December 2007, according to the Labor Department. For men the ratio is 63.6%, down from 69.4% in 2007 when the recession began. About one percentage point of this is a result of a surge of retirements during this recession period.

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There is a ton of cheese lying in storage -1.4 billion pounds - as Americans shift to foreign varieties and exports to China and Mexico are hurt by the tariffs war.  Americans are becoming more adventurous in their cheese eating habits. Many say they cannot stand eating processed cheese anymore. Processed cheese consumption is going down just as foreign cheese varieties are picking up strongly. Mozzarella cheese is up and cheddar cheeses is down with mozzarella popular in pizzas.   Cheese producers such as Sargento in Wisconsin are shifting to Gouda, a Dutch variety and other European cheeses as they adjust to the changing habits of Americans tired of processed stuff including processed cheeses.  Cheesemakers from Ireland and Quebec and local makers in Wisconsin were ramping up their production of cheese when the trade tariffs with China and Mexico hit dairy products. Cheese exports to China are down 63%. The result is that 1.4 billion pounds of cheese are now in storage in cold storage warehouses. Americans still eat a record 37 pounds of cheese every year, but processed cheese per capita is now half of what it was in 2006. Netherlands based Gouda producer Campina is expanding in the U.S. to meet the demand for gouda and other varieties.  Dairy farmers that supply cheese makers are hurt. Milk prices are down around 40% from a 2014 peak. 600 dairy farms closed in Wisconsin in 2018 alone. ...

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Krugman points to the mounting toll of joblessness in America in 2011. He calls the joblessness- six million Americans out of work for more than 6 months and four million jobless for more than one year- America's overriding problem. More than the deficits which he sees as a problem beyond the immediate next couple of years, and the dollar which he says has seen drops larger than the current one during the Bush and Reagan administrations and which presents an opportunity to increase exports. He says the scare stories may distract from the major problem unemployment presents for Americans.

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Logistical problems and need to authorize it for over 65's has delayed the effective use of Astra Zeneca vaccine doses in Germany and France.

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The first of many coastal wind turbine energy projects on America's coastline produces energy. The Vineyards Wind project in New Bedford harbour in Massachusetts sends 5MW of energy to the New England grid this week. The Operator says 5 850 feet tall turbines will be operational early this year. In all 62 turbines will generate wind energy, enough to power 400,000 homes. The White House's and president Biden's target is for 30 gigawatts of wind energy to power 10 million homes by 2030. Understand how Danish companies are leading the effort which is also why Danish companies were invited to India for its nascent wind energy industry. Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners is the developer with Avangrid of Spain. South Forks Wind is a smaller 12 turbine project off the New York coastline which s being developed by Orsted of Denmark. This Guardian report says some of the opposition to these projects in other parts of the country are coming from fossil fuel companies that seek to prolong the use of fossil fuels in the face of warnings of climate change by scientists and other leaders in government and industry. ...

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Should 33,000 member Boeing machinists union approve a 25% wage increase over 4 years or ask for 40%?  It has been a long time since a CEO pleaded with union workers to not go on strike. Boeing has negotiated a 4 year 25% increase wage settlement, no non union plants in the South. “I ask you not to sacrifice the opportunity to secure our future together, because of the frustrations of the past. I also know there are employees considering another path—and it’s one where no one wins." We suggested Stephanie Pope coming from a family of machinists for CEO- her dad worked at the Boeing plant. Pope says Boeing has a $60 billion debt pile and the Alaska Airlines accident with a bolted door coming loose midair. Pope says- "In past negotiations, the thinking was we should hold something back. Let me be clear: We did not hold back with an eye on a second vote.” ...

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Syrian refugees number 1 million in Germany and Austria. In Turkey 3.5 million, in Lebanon 800,000, Jordan 600,000. 6-7 million Syrian refugees all over the world. The figures are large for displaced people and refugees worldwide. About 60 million displaced, over 30 million refugees and about 6 million asylum seekers. (UNHCR figures). Some are in transit as one report in The Times shows 800,000 entered Greece in 2015. It was at the time of the financial crisis in Greece and other countries, putting a great strain on resources. Even as illegal migration is criticized in many European countries, the fact that Europeans have given refuge to so many at risk of strain in their social systems is also something the says a lot about the goodwill and resilience in European societies after two world wars. A similar show of sentiment is appropriate from these countries in the Middle East and Africa, from the diaspora, and needs to be translated into action by looking at better models of managing the economies and government of these nations so that mistakes of the past are not repeated and there is a place for all. ...

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China imports most of Iran's oil exports about 1.8 million barrels a day which flow through the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is heavily dependent on these exports for oil revenues that support it's economy. All Asian economies are heavily dependent on the oil flowing from Saudis, UAE and Iran through the Straits.  For Iran it would mean the loss of oil revenues needed to support its economy if the Straits are shut down. Iran's central bank says it get $67 billion from oil exports 90% of it going to China alone.  82% of oil imports of Asian countries  from Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Iran sources go though the Straits.  The US is not dependent on the Straits- less than 10% of its oil. Also true of Germany. The US  would have to use air strikes to prevent any mining of the waters seaway, and China, US, Japan, India would join in combined effort to keep all sea navigation open for international shipping.  ...

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Continental says it will ground 67 planes.

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Public health experts warn that it is essential that countries reopening their economy have a reproduction ratio of much less than 1.0 so that the rate of increase is under control. Germany's Robert Koch Institute which advises the German government says the reproduction ratio which was 0.70 in mid April is now up to 0.96 after creeping back up. This is based on a mathematical model and extrapolated from infection numbers several weeks back.  It doesn't reflect the change by recent easing of lockdown measures starting with reopening smaller stores. This validates the careful approach adopted by France which was put forward by prime minister Edouard Philippe in his address to the National Assembly. The Assembly approved the plan 368 to 100. More legislation will back up the French government's authority to ban non essential travel between French departments and the creation of a large brigade to perform contract tracing. That involves finding testing and isolating everyone potentially infected, using dedicated locations. Detailed restrictions on travel, work and gatherings will take effect when France reopens partially on May 11.  France is also putting resources behind its testing program to test every person having coronavirus symptoms, and all they are in contact with. That means about 700,000 tests a week. Officials will generate a color coded map from this with red areas facing more restrictions than green areas. Student size is capped at 115 per class. Cafes, restaurants, movie theatres and large museums will remain closed. Gatherings of more than 10 banned. Those who can work from home asked to do so. Public transit users will be required to use masks, and marks on platforms will indicate the social distance required. Only essential travel is allowed more than 62 miles from home. These rules remain till June 2, when new ones will be set. Large music festivals and sporting events are canceled till the fall. Mr. Philippe says "these efforts will not be in vain and should allow us to arrange for a better summer season." ...

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The British public is very conservative when it comes to reopening. 73% support prioritizing the health of citizens only 17% say prioritize the economy. This is the highest of industrialized nations, Japan being the next highest with 60% supporting prioritizing health only 16% in Japan saying the economy.  For Boris Johnson as he makes the speech on Sunday May 10 on reopening the political margin for error in decision is nonexistent. Britain's tabloid press and other media simply took the idea that to heck with it lets reopen reflecting a lack of caution in the headlines after Mr. Johnson expressed his intention to reopen. After seeing this Johnson and his closest advisers met without his hawkish ministers to reflect on what was happening in the country. The British government's scientific advisers say whether there are 100,000 deaths by the end of the year depends on many factors including testing, contact tracing, the way the lockdown is eased, the situation at nursing homes, and other government action  to prevent a resurgence in infections. At the meeting with Gove, Sunak Raab and Hancock, Mr Johnson stepped back and reversed any plans except for mild reopening- giving people more time outside for exercize, opening limited locations such as garden centres and advising strongly to wear masks on public transport. Both Johnson and Dominic Cummings his adviser had coronavirus, and Johnson spent some time in ICU. They know the impact of the coronavirus from their own personal experience.  For Johnson there is only one chance, Tory senior advisers say the public will forgive mistakes going into coronavirus, but will never forgive mistakes getting out of cotronavirus. He told Keir Starmer of Labour in parliament that he bitterly regrets what has happened in nursing homes. The scientists have warned him that the staff at nursing homes could seed communities once again. And that the coronavurus R ratio (1 being the level it starts growing again) could go up back to 1. This is the situation on May 10 as Johnson prepares to speak to the nation on Sunday at 7 pm, as he shifts to "maximum caution." ...

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Some of the most vulnerable populations in the world during coronavirus are in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the surrounding regions, in Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, and in African countries. This report looks at the increase in poverty in Pakistan and increasing food insecurity with food prices increasing. Government priorities are a concern says this report. Malnutrition is increasing with estimates ranging and some as high as 40% of children. A PTI official of the government is cited here as saying that it could be as high as 50% of children suffering from malnutrition. One of the problems for food insecurity in the Indian region going back to the famines during the British rule in Bengal and the famines in Bihar during Congress rule after independence is that supplies are lacking of foodgrains or that the incomes have fallen so drastically that people could not afford to buy food. Governments stepped in after independence to provide foodgrains at subsidized prices. These programs need to be pushed to the forefront and and international assistance needs to be sought. Planning minister Asad Umar points out in this report in DW.com that millions of Pakistanis are falling below the poverty line increasing food insecurity at a critical time. He gives estimate that one out of four Pakistanis have had their diets reduced. There is every reason to support efforts for cross border supply of foodgrains between India and Pakistan as humanitarian approach in the coronavirus crisis even as differences exist over border regions- as such differences exist all over the world over borders but humanitarian approach has benefitted the entire region during the Bihar famines after independence with aid from the U.S. Johnson administration. At that time in 1966-67 the seriousness of the situation in Bihar was only gradually and reluctantly accepted by the institutions, officials and governments around the world, says Cambridge University Press looking back on that crisis. And it is to the great credit of the Johnson administration that it launched the subsequent efforts for the Green Revolution and foodgrain production involving Norman Borlaug and the Indian government. Something of this type needs to be launched again across the region.   ...

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Eliud Kipchoge is one of the rare runners from Africa for his outlook on life. He is from Kenya, and holds the world record for running the Marathon. At the Berlin Marathon he set a record of just over 2 hours, with an improvement of 78 minutes the biggest in 50 years.  How does he do it? He wears a wrist band that says "No human is limited." He believes it is in the power of the mid to do what it sets out to do and what it believes. As he trains in the Kenyan highlands his idea of life is living simply which "sets you free." There at training camp he shares in the chores, including cleaning toilets, and always maintains the discipline that is part of his daily routine. Being disciplined is about not just the two hours running but the other 22 hours as well. A simple life means no distracted mind. Says Kipchoge: "My mind is always free. My mind is flexible. The mind is what drives a human being. If you have belief-pure belief in your heart- that you want to be successful you can talk to your mind and your mind will control you to be successful." This 34 year old Kenyan runner won the 5000 metres at the World Championships in Paris in 2003, won silver in Osaka in 2007, but failed to make the 2012 Kenyan Olympics team. He then switched to marathon running and won ten marathons, three in London. As part of the NikeBreaking2 project Eliud is taking on the challenge of running a marathon under 2 hours, 63 years after Roger Bannister set the 4 minute mile record. ELiud believes there are still beautiful things in store, some cool things to do. And his dream is to build a running world that brings joy and peace - "There is freedom in running. Go and run and your your mind will be free."    ...

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In getting the support of an overwhelming majority of Senators to support Ukraine aid Mitch McConnell plays a key role. His remarks on the floor of the US Senate underscored the gravity of this moment in the Congress: "Make no mistake: Delay in providing Ukraine the weapons to defend itself has strained the prospects of defeating Russian aggression. Dithering and hesitation have compounded the challenges we face. Today’s action is overdue, but our work does not end here. Trust in American resolve is not rebuilt overnight. Expanding and restocking the arsenal of democracy doesn’t just happen by magic.” President Biden's effort will be remembered. It is similar to what happened when Harry Truman had to persuade a war weary country and the US Congress in 1948 to pass bill for aid to Greece and Turkey to prevent an imminent Communist takeover with support from the Soviet bloc. McConnell will be remembered for his action, so will Speaker Mike Johnson and Senator Schumer and other Republicans, Democrats that worked hard to get a decisive vote for Ukraine aid of 79 For to 18 Against, with 15 Republicans and 3 Democrats voting against. Alabama Senator shifted to a yes vote saying most of that $61 billion of aid to Ukraine will be spent in the US to hire American workers in defense industries. A $10 billion loan provision with forgiveness included was a way to get the former president to support it. On the third try America's Congress gets it through in a decisive manner with overwhelming support. This is not unlike the efforts before, when Aid to Greece and Turkey had to be passed through Congress under president Harry Truman in 1948 with both countries facing a danger of Communist takeover supported by the Soviet bloc with only US support keeping democracy in both Greece and Turkey. Even in 1948 to a war weary country Harry Truman had to persist and get the support he did from the US Congress as president Biden did today April 23, 2024. ...

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Sadanand Dhume in WSJ reflects opinion in the US that is wary of handout politics that has been carried to an extreme in India's election. In Venezuela the bad turn for the oil rich economy was when Chavez's successor Maduro ignorant of the problems it would create decided to give oil at almost no cost to all Venezuelans. In India the leading opposition party offered $1 lakh rupees to every woman in the state of Uttar Pradesh. India's federal government under Modi has given free food to about 800 million people and renewed the pledge this year because of the pandemic's devastating the rural economy- about 60% of India is still rural. This is essential for India to advance to build a broad based growth model for India similar to China 1990-2010 and Japan 1890-1915 and 1950-1970 during the transformation of their economies, similar also to the US under FDR/Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy 1940-1965.  Clean environments Swacch Bharat was essential for basic sanitation and toilets to reduce health risks, cooking gas to shift rural women from firewood and health risks, direct deposit bank accounts for 300 million rural households essential to eliminate leakages, solar energy is planned to cut energy cost  This has brought and will bring the level of income and consumption power of the lower and middle classes to create a 500 million strong consumer base for industry. It is a carefully planned effort based on the success in states such as Gujarat, and looking at the way this was done in China and the US for learning lessons. It is not a reckless effort to win votes such as the offer of 1 lakh rupees to every woman in Uttar Pradesh state with no plan for industrialization and modernization of the Indian economy to make it the third largest ahead of the EU by 2035. Dhume is right to point this out and it is apparent to any outsider who looks at Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ke Saath- prosperity for all, including all parts of society irrespective of caste and religion.  ...

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Moderate far right, right and socialist have less meaning in the context of the French government of prime minister Michael Barnier. The NFP as the largest single party sees the turning down of it's moderate candidate Lucie Castets by Macron as not representative of the vote. Michael Barnier's choice as prime minister from the Les Republicains party with 47 members in the new National Assembly, the smallest of the top four parties NFP, Renaissance, RN and LR, means he will have to depend on Marie Le Pen's RN party to remain prime minister. Together the Les Republicains of Sarkozy and the Ensemble of Macron  have 213 members in the National Assembly representing the status quo, 168 for Ensemble Macron and 45 Les Republicians the Gaullist party. These two parties are the largest bloc combined compared to 182 seats for the socialist NFP Front Populaire and the Le Pen party with 143 seats. The strange twist is that Macron started out in the Socialist Party and was part of the Socialist administration of Francois Hollande, who formed his own party Renaissance (now Ensemble) to bring younger faces and replace the old political parties. This led to the decline of the Gaullist Les Republicains party. In 2024 Macron is back to the old parties- becoming part of an alliance with the old Les Republicains Gaullists. Yet the financial crises of 2009, the pandemic, and the inflation crises in France have changed France from what it was in the Gaullist De Gaulle period in the 60's to 90's, with a struggling lower and middle class who have shifted their support to Le Pen and to the Socialist Front Populaire. Barnier is left with the challenging job of combining new immigration policies (Le Pen) with socialist policies to help the middle and working class. A new consensus that says stopping migrants is part of helping working class (in Denmark and other EU countries) is how Barnier has to approach this situation to bring together different parties. ...