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By June 7 US stocks were up 11.5% in the first half of 2026, showing a resilient stock market whatever economists say about tariffs and other policies. There is a lot of misinformation on the changes in trade policy. Sure the deficits over $1 trillion had become so excessive to be a burden for the US ( this is not even to address the 20:5:2  the 20 trillion transfer in US wealth to foreign countries, 5 million jobs lost and the 2% low growth since 2000 that USTR Lighthizer and Jamieson point out in Foreign Affairs magazine in 2026).  Greg Ip comments on this in today's WSJ that betting against DJT trade and economic policy is not working. Here we have another flashback to Brexit and why a similar situation of misinformation had the opposite result. The value of the pound dropped from $1.55 to $1.35 to the US dollar in June 2016 the day Brexit referendum was won by Reform UK and the Conservatives. Today it is $1.33 in June 2026. Here is some history of Britain's tussle with the European Union. When did it start? In 1961 Britain applied to join. The French never too eager to have the British inside rejected in 1967 under nationalist De Gaulle. It took 12 years  not till 1973 did Britain get in with Denmark and both kept their currencies. As soon as Britishers complained about the bureaucracy in European Union Brussels headquarters conservatives like Boris Johnson drove this to a high pitch. He even said only way it would affect Britain was in the price of a Mars chocolate bar. Well in 2026 it is much more than that. Labour's Wes Streeting calls it a disastrous step for the UK economy to isolate it from Europe.  As usual the French don't care and the Germans showed little interest, so Britain was left to its own devices not being careful would mean bearing the costs. Manchester's mayor Burnham in Labour says he grasps this but there are other priorities that are pressing and shelves this for another time. It took 12 years to get UK into the European Union- it took just a few years under shortsighted Cameron, May and Johnson to get out when after austerity policies imposed by Cameron a lot of anger had shifted to Labourites and Blair's policies like the shortsighted policies of Bush and Obama, for the 20 trillion US lost to foreigners in their watch. Will it take another 12 years again for UK to get it right and get France and Germany to enthusiastically support Britain in the EU? ...

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Over the last 5 years 2021-2025 Americans who are more excited than concerned about AI has dropped from 18% to 10%, and Americans who are more concerned than excited has grown from 37% to 52%, in Pew Research surveys. Showing that self-interested tech companies such as Microsoft and OpenAI, Google are making loud claims for AI that do not reflect the views of the American people as a whole in 2025.

Americans by large margins in Pew Research believe AI will help in day to day tasks from weather forecasting to inventing new medicines. And by large margins of 40% Americans think AI will hurt ability to think creatively and form meaningful relationships and by 20% will hurt for making difficult decisions. This shows Americans -similar to people in China as reported- believe in using AI for ordinary day to day routine tasks, and are wary of AI and aware that AI's usefulness is limited to such routine tasks only.

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Over 50% of respondents in the 2012 Gallup poll view Japan as the U.S.'s most important partner in Asia, compared to 39% for China. The shift in how Americans view China is pronounced in the last 3 years. In 2010 the two countries were tied 44%-44%. In 2011 China was 39% to Japan's 31%. In 2011 India, S. Korea and Australia were added to the poll as partners. Among "opinion leaders" such as business executives, government officials, academics and journalists, China gets 54% to Japan's 40%. The poll is conducted by Gallup for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan since the 1960's. The analysis shows that respondents picked China for economic reasons not for political reasons. A survey of the general population shows 84% view Japan as a dependable ally, up 2% froom 2011, with similiar trend for opinion leaders.

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Issuance of junk bonds in 2012 reached $274 billion in 2012, an increase of 55% over 2011, according to Dealogic. This is double the levels observed before the financial crisis of 2008. Yields on low rated junk bonds have declined to about 6% as prices move up. Also observed is an increase in covenant lite corporate loans. These types of loans relax lending standards- this increased from $8.5 billion in 2010 to $36.5 billion 2011, and $58 billion in 2012, according to Dealogic. This has drawn the attention of Fed Governors Jeremy Stein and Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed, who have raised a warning about the rapid increase in credit and financial risks.

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MBZ Mohamed Bin Zayed's leadership in UAE, the exit from OPEC and recognition of Israel, that is changing the Middle East. India has close relations with UAE and there are 9 million Indians working in the Gulf region. MBZ and Saudi leader Salman were close until both leaders differed on oil prices. Saudis wanted to keep oil prices high to finance its ambitious projects which contrasted with the UAE interest in increasing production. Saudis have a less diversified economy whereas the UAE has tourism and finance as other business sectors. UAE has capacity to produce 5 million barrels a day, but is only allowed by OPEC to produce 3.5 million barrels a day. US president DJT says UAE's exit from OPEC should lead to lower oil prices. About 250,000 British nationals live in UAE and millions of Indians. Even though the Abu Dhabi and Dubai region of UAE is small it has a large population of 12 million with about 10 million expatriates from India. It is also amore advanced economy with the help of the British and India, and now Israel. Saudi population is about 35 million and Saudis were poised to recognize Israel in 2024-2025. Egypt, the largest Arab nation, has shifted policy to be part of a Middle East that seeks modernization and economic development after decades of war and has close relations with UAE, so does Morocco, another Arab country with close ties to Europe and India.    ...

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In Argentina the Right and Left politics have failed for most of this century, the economy struggles again in 2026- Millei and Argentina as shown by the NYT's Cohen. Yet inflation is down and something different is being tried. Bloated bureaucracy is cut down to basics, investments in mining and oil, manufacturing weak and infrastructure investments lacking, no clear solutions. Mexico benefits from American reshoring of factories in automobiles yet is the place where drug trafficking is happening and this is a problem of major dimensions, Brazil benefits from its vast agricultural wealth in the Amazon region, Argentina is seeking a mining boom, Venezuela after a deep shock from Chavez ideas and hyperinflation only now recovering, much of Latin America and Africa have missed the economic and technological changes that are underway in Asia for the last 50 years.

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The Biden administration and Taiwan are accelerating the development of supply chain in India to tackle a chip shortage worldwide. Taiwan seeks to come up with an early agreement with India on tariff reductions for semiconductor components. The $7.5 billion plant investment would provide 5G electronics chips as well as automobile chips. India is studying various plant locations and 50% financial support after 2023 is planned with tax breaks and financial incentives.

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Rugged hilly coast and shallow narrow straits - problems for Straits of Hormuz shipping is shown in the NYT following similar reports in WSJ. It will cost $200 billion for the munitions supplies and interceptors, and US naval operations, French naval operations to keep the Straits of Hormuz open, which is supported by US business as is seen in opinion in Editorial Board of WSJ on March 24, 2026. The Straits are a lifeline for Asia until renewable energy and alternative supplies of oil make the Straits history and a redundant proposition, which will be sooner than later after this episode, one too many more from the Middle East. More likely by 2030-2035. China and Japan depend on it for 90% of imports, and India 50% with alternative supplies provided for India from the US and Russia. Germany is only dependent on the Straits for 6% of its imports showing how far Germany has come and how important renewables and alternative sources of oil such as Venezuela will become in the time ahead, in a two pronged strategy that does not forget the challenges posed by climate from fires and floods. Were not stuck with the Straits- Japan and China can and will find alternative sources and increase production of renewable energy in the way Germany has done to get to 6% of imports from that region. ...

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For 51 million seniors over 65 years the $4000 added deduction in the Big Beautiful Bill 2025 would take the standard deduction for married to $40,000 a year in 2025 and $41,100 in 2026.This is in lieu of eliminating the tax on social security benefits entirely which was originally considered but could not be done under the budget reconciliation rules used to pass this DJT budget. For married taxpayers it is phased out after reaching $250,000 of income. What does $4000 provision over 65 years cost? It costs $66 billion over 3 years, and needs renewal in 2028. Eliminating taxes on social security benefits entirely would cost $1.4 trillion over 10 years or over 3 years $420 billion with a lot of it going to income earners with income over $100,000 or $150,000. It makes sense that this was avoided, and the political appeal being still in place for an ideal situation where when it comes to social security where middle class incomes of $200,000 are not taxed-as consider that it costs that much to just have a middle class life in these costly times.  ...

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Restaurants in UK have large price increases. UK restaurant owners say they are facing a squeeze with 55% of revenue going to pay taxes in 2026, and 45% left for rent, employees wages, electricity, food and other costs. Unclean streets and closure of restaurants during covid affect the prospects in the restaurant business. 38% of restaurant customers say they cannot afford to go to restaurants the way they used to.

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The new India built refinery by RIL (Reliance India Limited) in the US at Brownsville, Texas, will reduce US trade balance by $15 billion a year and will produce oil using cleaner US shale oil and newer technologies that are less polluting for the environment.  India's RIL Refinery Project for $300 billion at Brownsville, Texas, is Explained here in the Indian Express. The Project is called America First Refining, and was announced by the US president recently.  $125 billion for 60 million barrels of US shale oil processed annually over 20 years and $175 billion for 2.5 billion gallons of refined product to be produced annually for 20 years. US  imports about 2.8 billion barrels a year and (exports 1 billion barrels a year) at a cost of $180 billion a year. This means the trade imbalance from crude imports will be cut by about 10% annually. The new refinery is the first in 50 years and is designed to process cleaner lighter shale oil from the US Permian Basin -whereas existing refineries are designed with older technology for heavier crude oil such as the US gets from Venezuela. Reliance India Limited has a fast turnaround time on projects- new project will come onstream in 2027. It currently has the world's largest single refining complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat, India.  ...

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At a glance see on a world map with colors which countries have accomplished the transition to renewable so as not to get caught in the quagmire of the Middle East for oil supplies- most of Europe has done very well, and the laggards- Asia from China and India that are making an effort to Japan which has a poor dismal record. Brazil Uruguay 90% Denmark 80% Canada 66% Germany Spain and Finland 50% UK 46% Italy 42%  France 27%- share of renewables in electricity production (2023). This means much of the world is not dependent on volatile energy supplies from the Middle East. It is only in China, India, Japan, South Korea that dependence is high on Middle East. And in China and India this is the time to focus again on renewables. Most baffling is Japan with only 23% and it is the country that has so much of its supplies flowing through the Persian Gulf volatile oil lane- when Europe has moved on and accomplished the task of avoiding volatile Gulf region.

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Norway has stepped up to meet Europe's need for oil and gas. About one third of the gas consumed in Europe comes from Norway. After the war started Norway increased gas exports by 8% in 0223 shipping more of it by undersea pipelines to Northern Europe. This increased oil and gas exports from $25 billion in 2021 to $125 billion in 2022. Like Saudi Arabia the government owns not only the oil and gas fields but also has large stakes in the companies that extract oil and gas. For a small country bordering Russia with 5.5 million people this put it in a higher status to meet Europe's plea for energy so that it could heat homes and would not have to shut down some of its industrial capacity. And it left no stone unturned to do this. Petoro CEO Kristin Kragseth says that we knew that Norway was always important but we did'nt realize how much. Petoro made $50 billion in 2022 almost three times what it made in 2021. Another of Norway's oil companies Equinor made $75 billion in adjusted earnings in 2022. Political sentiment has shifted too so that climate change that was a priority still is but Norway is willing to increase production for a few years to meet needs of Europe.     ...

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UK student survey shows 49% of students have  financial issues affecting their diet, missing meals or not having enough food or poor quality of food. It also shows 55% have financial issues that affect their mental health. Loans were falling short of covering living costs by 582 pounds a month in 2023, it was 439 pounds in 2022. Maintenance loans for students increased by only 2.8% in 2023-24 in Britain,for a maximum of 9978 pounds a year outside London. Shown here is an engineering student who gets up at 4am to do a supermarket shift, a law student who works 20-25 hours a week as a receptionist and missing one third of her lectures.

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China generates 53% of its emissions from coal in May 2024. All the remaining from non fossil sources. Two factors are evident, yet both do not indicate a big fall off in fossil emissions from this point just a plateauing effect with it flattening out. The first is that China is putting in solar and wind at 8 times the level of the US, taking up two thirds of world solar and wind installations. The second is that the one third of emissions from construction and real estate is falling off because that industrial sector has collapsed. Overall the future points to slowing of emissions as China comes only gradually down from that 53%. What happens in China makes a huge impact on climate change. India has also committed to climate change action and meeting targets early under PM Modi so that India as it industrializes will not follow the path of jumping fossil emissions China had. This is useful to know as the US and EU, UK, expand solar and wind. It is important that the US stay committed to climate change action something missing from the Republican platform for 2024. Delaying climate change action will impose huge costs on the US that could be about 1 trillion dollars if it is stalled now and is taken up in 2028. ...

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Policy on China in the second year of the DJT Administration- shift from adversary positions to cooperation. A shift in policy after the meetings with Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi at Busan, South Korea in 2025. WSJ Analysis looks at what happened in the first term of DJT, the Biden Administration that followed and in 2025 in US-China relations and how the posture changed, how Xi and his team built rapport with DJT and his team over the tumultuous period in 2025. US turned to Xi in getting Iran to the table for negotiations in Islamabad meetings after the month long effort to take out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program infrastructure. This was arranged in the early hours of Tuesday April 7th 2026. Throughout the US air campaign in Iran China pursued the policy it had set at Busan of not letting it affect US- China relations and the DJT visit to Beijing believing it sets the basis for the future course of US- China that affects the whole world beyond regions such as the Middle East where little headway has been made in bringing about peace. China US, EU, India, Brazil, Latin America, Africa, Indonesia, make up most of the world's population and China remains focused on ensuring the US and China can through their cooperation maintain peace in the world overall. This is reflected in this statement of China's Foreign Ministry on Busan meeting as the beginning of something new and big for the world- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world. And that is an important secret to our success. China will further deepen reform across the board, expand opening up, and promote higher-quality economic growth while achieving an appropriate increase in economic output, and advance well-rounded human development and common prosperity for all. This will also expand the space for cooperation between China and the United States." This relates to China's worst fear, worst nightmare - that before it can become a fully developed economy for 1.4 billion people it would find itself in the situation that faces Japan of an aging society and weak growth something Japan faces as a fully developed economy much smaller of 120 million people. Japan per capita GDP is at $36,000 2.5 times China's at $14,000 and about a fifth of Germany's at $64,000, about a seventh of the USA at $92,000. So that if China does not continue along the path of development it has followed since 1990 working with the US and EU it faces the prospect of losing forever the prospect of joining Japan and fall into lower than middle income status when large parts of the interior of China a third of its economy that is rural are still living in poor economy status with per capita GDP of $3500, which is 8% of the GDP per capita of the poorest state heavily rural state of Mississippi in the US. Even Shanghai and Beijing with about $32,000 per capita GDP are only about 58% of the per capita GDP of Louisiana in the bottom one third of US states. Xi Wang Yi, Lifeng are doing what China must do to compete with advanced US and European economies and Japan- continue to work with the US on the development model that has worked the best for China since 1990. It is not about supplanting anyone China is serious when it says here- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world." ...

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Strategic siting in renewable rich areas (Dallas center the largest is in renewable rich area) and fair cost allocation to not burden small businesses and households are major issues in Data Center building. Data centers for AI -rows and rows of servers 5000 in hyperscale data centers- used 4% of the US total electricity use in 2024. This is growing rapidly. By 2030 this is expected to grow by more than double, by 133%. About 60% of this to power the servers and 30% for cooling the servers. About a third of these servers are located in Virginia, Texas and California. How will this affect Cost of Living concerns, affect electricity prices? Carnegie Mellon working with North Carolina State University did the modeling on the energy and emissions implications of data center buildup in the US in their Open Outlook Initiative. A 8% annual increase in electricity prices is expected on average and as high as 25% in Virginia by 2030.  Total of about 40% increase over 5 years. Between 2014 and 2024 10 year period average cost for a home electricity use went up 25% from $114 a month to $142. This would now go up by 40% to about $200 by 2030 in just 5 years significantly impacting cost of living in the US. In which states will it strain electricity grids? In 2023 data centers consumed 26% of the total electricity supply in Virginia. In North Dakota 15%, Nebraska 12%, Iowa 11%, Oregon 11% according to Electric Power Research Institute. What are the energy types used? Natural gas is used for 40% of the data center electricity, wind and solar 25%, nuclear 20% and coal 15%.   ...

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Pew Research Center analysis of Biden's 2020 victory shows which groups played the big part in Biden's win. First time voters in 2018, 6% of total voters, mostly younger voters gave Biden a 26% margin over Trump. Other parts of the electorate that shifted in 2020 are Independents and Moderates who shifted to Biden. Catholics also shifted to Biden. Substantial leads in these voting blocs made the difference for Biden. In Arizona with Latinos, and Pennsylvania with the black population Biden did better than in the overall US electorate. In 2024 these same blocs are likely to play a key part. President Biden's visit to Ireland was well planned, his appeal to Irish roots genuinely felt and the connection made. His appeal to manufacturing workers is now based on accomplished results in fighting for worker's rights from teachers to railroad workers. Biden launched his campaign in front of a union audience, saying he saw things from the perspective of Scranton, and the working people he grew up with. In 2016 third party candidates got 6% of the vote, in 2020 only 2%. Of these voters Biden gained a 25% margin over Trump. Biden split the men's vote with Trump in 2020, compared to Trump's 11 point lead in 2016. Biden also maintained the share of women's votes of 54%  in the 2020 election. In 2024 the abortion issue is a significant factor for women. ...

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Watch key moments of King Charles Address to the US Congress April 28 2026. This is the most warmly and most embraced speech in the US Congress in decades. The last time a British monarch was in the US, and addressed the US Congress was Queen Elizabeth in the Suez crisis of 1956. Looking back the Suez crisis was precipitated by a Arab nationalist military officer taking over (nationalizing) the Suez Canal in Egypt from British and French control. As this was when the British and French Empires existed in Africa and Asia, and the US was for freeing people requiring breakup of these Empires.  It should be remembered American General Stilwell carried out this policy in China by fighting the Japanese Empire in China, and also India. America was never on the side of Empires as some would have us believe, and there is no better example of American spirit and generous heart than General Joe Stilwell in China for 1900-1950. Today Keir Starmer and Macron's move to represent the British and French as innocent bystanders is anything but, as the British and French created 50 years of wars in the Middle East by creating the artificial states of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq of Shia and Sunni people out of the defeated Ottoman Empire by 1921. King Charles was making the best of the bad situation in his speech as he supports US position of naval blockade to prevent Iran (or for that matter any place in the Middle East a powder keg of a region like the Balkans in 1914 that started WWI) from getting nuclear weapons. ...

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This story in WSJ says China may have a lead in electric car battery sales in 2024 and beyond. China is investing heavily in battery plants and EV plants in Europe and the US. This would help China meet the restrictions on import of electric vehicles from China by the Biden administration. CATL increased its market share in Europe from 10% to 24%. Sales of EV vehicles in China went up by 37% in the first 9 months of 2023, and China is the top exporter of electric vehicles. CATL's electric battery sales in Europe doubled compared to 60% for LG. And in excluding China sales CATL has caught up with LG both having 28% of the market.

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In a nutshell why the economy is lopsided benefitting some, ignoring many. Labour's (salaries of all working people including professional classes) share of gross domestic income is 50% in 2026 the lowest since 1947, and profits highest since 1950 at 12%. Then you have hourly wages up 3% since 2019, while profits are up 50%. Greg Ip of the WSJ says the causes are complex and implications sobering. He says you can be a red blooded capitalist and still worry- is something wrong or unsustainable? Political stability, good governance structures, good institutional structures that were set up since Lincoln (the beginnings for the Industrial Revolution), by TR and FDR/Frances Perkins (the basic institutional and good governance structures of modern America and now the industrialized world that allied labor and capital with fairness to all), the entire setup needs to be rebuilt and renewed. The problems are also appearing in Europe and causing dismay, with calls for rebuilding and renewal. ...

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BBC answers the question "Who is Keir Starmer?" in this report on the new British prime minister. He graduated from Leeds University and studied law at Leeds and Oxford. He joined the Socialist Movement soon after college. He was a prominent contributor to magazine Socialist Lawyer. In school he had joined the Young Socialists, Labour's youth organization. His name is from the first leader of the Labour party Keir Hardie. He is the first from his family to go to college. From 1988 to 2008 he was a practicing lawyer and concentrated his efforts on his work till he was made the Director of Public Prosecutions, the chief prosecutor of England and Wales. Keir likes to talk about this period including prosecuting terrorist gangs as an example of public service. It was late only until age 52 in 2015 that he was given the safe Labour parliamentary seat in north London of Holborn St Pancras. Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader of Labour in 2015. Sir Keir worked well with Jeremy Corbyn during this period and was Immigration Secretary and Brexit Secretary from the back benches. When Corbyn's leadership was challenged Starmer supported this, with Corbyn resigning in 2020 after the 2019 election defeat and being replaced by Starmer.  Then followed a period of fighting the Conservatives and only coming level to the Conservatives in 2021 in popular support. The changes that made Labour more popular and reversing finally the decline of 14 years did not come till 2023 only 12 months before this election. Throughout Sir Keir maintained his composure and moderate positions, distancing himself from Corbyn, to regain the confidence of the British people. When one sees that the votes increase in 2024 is only 2% for Labour in 2024 one realizes the achievement of Sir Keir in transforming Labour to run the country that is so needed today. The slight increase in votes converts into a landslide through careful planning and strategy, but it also hides the fact that the British people have turned to Labour for answers and solutions to the problems they face. Such is the level of confidence that Sir Keir has built over time bit by bit, as he says "brick by brick," something that is clearly in Sir Keir's character and manner of doing things. ...

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It reduces oil prices a little bit so why not let India buy Russian oil for 30 days- Scott Bessent announcement March 5 2025. Bessent said for the US- "India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran's attempt to take global energy hostage."

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Japan is still very cautious about nuclear power after the meltdowns at Japanese nuclear reactors in Fukushima. A decade after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami hit the nuclear reactors only 9 reactors are operating compared to 54  earlier. In Germany the final reactor is set to be retired in 2022. From Wales to South Korea and the US planning has stopped after Fukushima.