LyrArc Article Gist
German companies investing in the US with incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act of president Biden.

LyrArc Article Gist
Which may not be a bad thing as it would keep inflation in check and shift to a new way of handling the economy with higher employment and wages and moderate to low inflation. The US may be facing inflation on a bumpy path to 2% or more likely stay near 3%. The 2% target of the Fed was from an earlier era when wages were stuck for most factory workers. The increase in wages was needed so that workers could improve their standard of living that was being eroded and after years of stagnant wages. Inflation at around 3% may be where inflation would be in the current environment. This also means higher interest rates on savings which form the most important source of income next to social security for retirees and older workers with larger savings. This also provides an incentive to younger workers to save that did not exist when interest rates were brought to zero to tackle recurring financial crises caused by banks and external events.

LyrArc Article Gist
The strike at Royal Mail in the UK as workers reject a 2% raise not enough to cover inflation, higher costs for food and energy. Royal Mail has 140,000 workers. A similar strike over a 2% raise is affecting Britain's transportation sector with rail employees on strike on certain days. This is the result of Tory Conservative policies. In France there is a cap on energy costs, no such cap exits in Britain which has inflation exceeding 10%, and workers struggling after years of austerity cuts.

LyrArc Article Gist
One more reason inflation is slowingin the US- the public is spending less and resisting price increases.

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Ip says in WSJ that Biden's $2 trillion Families and Workers Plan (Build Back Better) should be moved forward or restrained, not on the basis of its trivial or secondary effect on inflation, but on its main goal of expanding a torn social safety net.That one vote in the Senate in 50-50 US Senate, that of Mr. Manchin is holding it back, should be set out in the clearest terms- that Mr. Manchin is not comfortable with repairing a torn social safety net to the level Mr. Biden is.  Greg Ip points out that Moody's and other experts see the same effects on inflation with or without the plan which is over ten years. He says besides the supply chain bottlenecks that would ease at some point, inflation would be kept close to 2% target by Powell at the US central bank, the Fed. It is all about how the US plans renewal of its economy from this pandemic and from the crises past, knowing that it has learned the lessons along the way, so that the economy works for all the people and builds America's strength in the world- pointing to a brighter future for all and a strong America. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation is about too much money chasing too few goods or services. Paul Krugman, economic expert, says in the NYT that this inflation episode in 2021 is still he thinks transitory, as does the Fed's Jerome Powell. It is Krugman says a demand pull situation in which higher demand is  a result of the lockdowns easing and pent up consumer demand being released, just when the productive capacity of the country is affected by about 4 million fewer workers in factories and other places. The supply is crimped also by supply chain bottlenecks with covid affecting supply from countries in Asia also with fewer factories operating. Added to this is the whole logistics chain near Long Beach California moving ever so slowly because of fewer workers, and ships lined up all the way out to sea. The Fed chairman Powell thinks this is what is happening. Krugman says this reminds him of the 1946-48 episode of inflation after the war, when the disaster of war was followed by peace time 1946 and the release of pent up demand like today. At the same time in 1946 factories were still not fully operational for consumer goods after bombing in Europe and war time conversion in the US. The result too much money chasing too few goods available. In this situation Krugman says a calibrated effort that is based on new information is needed with moderate action, very small rate increases in 2022 so that inflation signals are sent out by Fed but not in a way that would disturb the long term trajectory of the economy for growth. After the pandemic has hit so many Americans so hard. Action that would preserve the long term strength and productive capacity, and technological competitiveness of America during this period of renewal. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The US Federal Reserve, America's central bank, would rather see a recession than for inflation to get a hold in the US. Another way of saying this is that the Fed sees the American economy fundamentally strong under the Biden administration as it strengthens protections for workers and families, corrects flaws in policies for rural America and in other areas, moves to attract foreign investment and gets US companies to invest in America. This makes the danger of inflation greater than a recession, so that a policy of aggressive action with interest rates is justified.

LyrArc Article Gist
Marking the sixth straight month of declines the US consumer price index rose by 6.5% over a year earlier in Dec. 2023. This is down from 7.1% in November and 9.1% in June. The US central bank chairman Jay Powell is resolutely pursuing anti inflation policy. Retail sales, manufacturing output and home sales declined in November. Exports and imports also declined. Prices fell for products such as autos and computers. Job and wage growth slowed. Tackling service inflation is the next challenge for the US Fed and Jay Powell says the WSJ.

LyrArc Article Gist
It is essential that we bring down inflation," the US central bank head Jerome Powell tells Congress.

LyrArc Article Gist
Approaching euro dollar parity and the weakening currencies in Japan and Britain is the subject of this editorial in the WSJ. The ECB is focused on preventing divergence in bond rates of Germany and Italy more than it is in fighting inflation. The Fed in the US is increasing rates aggressively to curb inflation. This divergence in policies of central banks is making the dollar stronger.

LyrArc Article Gist
The S&P 500 index gained 5.9% the week of October 29th for its best gain since November 2022. For 2023 it has gained 14%. A jobs report showing less job growth of 150,000 slightly higher unemployment at 3.9% and slowing inflation, led the US Fed to pause raising interest rates. This has created optimism that inflation would gradually decline which is good for the economy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Excluding energy and food inflation is at 6.6% in September 2022 in the US, and 8.3% including food and energy prices.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tution fees in the UK are 9450 pounds. The cost of housing about 7500 pounds in 2024, up 15% over the last 2 years. In addition to the over charges on student loans for Plan 2 Loans in Britain that take it from 4.3% with a surcharge of 3%, there is the 15% inflation in housing costs in Britain that households and student have to contend with. This situation is true today for Britain, the US and Germany, and other countries in the EU leaving less for food and transportation costs. This is why there is an added level of worry and anxiety for young people in Britain the EU and in the US, and for their parents.

Others one with a business economics degree and a solicitor apprentice in a law firm face the same situation. He works in finance and just sees it as he says a tax on having gone to university.  Similar stories across the US. It doesn't have to be this way for advanced nations education is FIRST PRIORITY.

LyrArc Article Gist
After coming down to $0.95 to the US dollar in September 2022 the euro is now back up to $1.07. A drop in energy prices and easing of recession fears in the EU is sparing a revival of the euro. A milder winter in Europe and an impressive effort in cutting gas consumption is helping the EU. The stronger euro also helps in tackling inflation in the EU.

LyrArc Article Gist
The dollar remains the dominant force in capital markets. It is strengthening after US central bank raised interest rates 8 times in 2021-2022 to about 5.25%. China is cutting interest rates as its economy with debt at about 290% of GDP is slowing, the EU increasing rates as it faces inflation fueled by price increases and some price gouging. In the US inflation is cut in half by Fed policy to 4% in May 2023, Biden's policies to help with the cost of living and restrain price gouging, and by supply chains working better than in 2021. The US looks the strongest of the lot.

LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation declined in October to 7.7% in the US from 8.2% in September 2022. This reflects year over year change in the consumer price index. Excluding food and energy it was 6.3%. Goods inflation for used cars, clothing slowed, airfares also declined.

LyrArc Article Gist
US president Biden's State of the Union speech on Tuesday Feb. 7 is much awaited as he prepares for the 2024 election. Much of the major legislation including the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act had bipartisan support. America is back and building better, and Biden hopes to continue his efforts in this direction, even as he faces a divided US Congress. Biden will also want to show the vigorous style of his leadership as America recovers its position in manufacturing, research and development, improves the lives of working families and tackles inflation.

LyrArc Article Gist
The return of women to the workforce is tapping into the US economy's underlying strength, its services sector, even as rising inflation and higher interest rates pose recession risks, says the WSJ. In the competition for a limited pool of workers women are also getting pay raises, which in turn supports increased consumer spending and economic growth. More women in the workforce will ease worker shortages and help cool inflation. Still barriers remain. About 5 million people were not working because of children who are not in childcare or school, according to the US Census Bureau.

LyrArc Article Gist
With the US economy showing strong labor markets there is a sense that Jay Powell at the Fed will continue resolute inflation fighting policies.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Bank of England increases interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.25%. Inflation increased to 10.4% up from 10.1% the month before.

LyrArc Article Gist
So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Higher savings, covid assistance checks, and cheap credit led to higher consumer spending in the second half of 2020. This lasted through the higher inflation in 2022 when consumer spending outpaced inflation by two percentage points. The share of monthly income set aside for savings dropped from a high in April 2020, to 7.5% in December 2021, to 3.4% in December 2022. This is rapidly reversing with increase in mortgage rates and interest rates by the Fed to 4.75%, home and car sales the lowest in a decade. Inflation is at 5% year over year and wages up 4.6% in December year over year. The labor market is tight with about 10 million unfilled jobs and unemployment at 3.4%. Tech and other companies that overly expanded during the pandemic and are under antitrust oversight are laying off some employees. A recession is possible but this depends on how Jay Powell at the Fed reads the employment situation so that it brings down inflation but not so much that it hurts American workers. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation is outpacing wages in the US by 4% in July 2022. Consumers are cutting back on spending. The US Fed is looking at another 0.75 percentage point increase in the interest rate in July 2022.

LyrArc Article Gist
German economy contracts in second quarter 2024 by 0.1%. Growth is forecast at 0.3% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025, according to country statistics office Destatis. The contrast could not be greater in Biden's management of the economy as US economic growth was much higher at about 2.8% in 2024. It shows the positive effects of Biden's effort to revive American manufacturing, and to support chips and science and American industry, and the investment of a trillion dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act in American infrastructure. Without these investments American recovery strong at this time would have hobbled along with much worse effects on jobs and inflation, and looming recession, under a Trump administration. Unusual factors such as the concentration of the supply chain in China have influenced US inflation, which Biden is correcting, and also bringing jobs at home. The economic management is excellent it  is the effects of the pandemic and broken supply chains, high mortgage rates and 20% price increases in apartment rentals that are making cost of living a problem for average Americans. Biden has taken cost of living action including canceling student debt and calling for limiting rent increases for apartment rentals to 5%. Harris has a program to support renters when housing takes up more than 30% of their income. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Wages are now consistently up more than inflationary pressures since mid 2023 to July 2024 by about 0.6 to 1.0% in Labor Department graphs about cost of living. This is good news for the US economy. It shows the policy of president Biden investing in rebuilding infrastructure and Science/Chips, and renewable energy is delivering for the American people alongside cost of living actions by the Fed's Powell and Biden. For the first time since 2021US CPI index for inflation from the Labor Department drops below 3%. It drops to 2.9% for July 2024. The Consumer Price Index increasing by 2.9% over the same month in the prior year 2023. This shows a definite trend for the cost of living to moderate after the supply chain events that increased inflation leading to lagging efforts for wages to catch up- cost of living issues for ordinary Americans. The costs of medical care and automobiles, automobile repair, food, all moderating. Housing costs still to moderate with higher interest rates.  ...