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Eleven members of the panel on the US Deficit Commisssion supported the plan, and seven opposed it, in a 11-7 vote. The panel members supporting it include Senator Durbin, Senator Coburn, Senator Crapo, Senator Gregg, and Senator Conrad. In the House the following House members voted against it- Rep. Becerra, Schakowsky, Camp, Hensarling, Paul Ryan. The House Democrats opposed it because of the changes to Social Security, and the House Republicans opposed it because they said the report did not tackle federal health-care spending sufficiently.

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Reforms planned by the administration of prime minister, Naoto Kan. Plans to raise the consumption tax, to make changes to social security, and to commit Japan to join the Trans Pacific Partnership. Japan's business community supports the plan to join the free trade community called the Trans Pacific Partnership. This group consists of USA, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Peru, Chile. South Korea has signed free trade agreements with the USA and the EU, and Japanese business does not want to be left behind.

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The passage of legislation to double the sales tax to 10% passed the lower house of parliament in Japan by a vote of 363 to 96, with 57 members of the 289 members of parliament of the Democratic Party of Japan voting against it. The IMF in a recent report recommending increasing the sales tax to 15%, raising the retirement age, and cutting social security spending. Moody's investors Service described the move as "credit positive" for Japannese government bonds, and see it as a first step.

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A number of issues came up at the Women20 Summit in Berlin. Annette Niederfranke, Director of the International Labor Organization, brought up the issue of family reconciliation as "one of the toughest challenges for working women worldwide," that in order to meet obligations women tended to work in "non standard forms of employment and in part time work linked to lower wages, lower social security, lower benefits, and fewer training possibilities." Childcare was also an issue that was prominent considering the lack of adequate childcare in many countries including in the European Union. With responsibilities for the elderly, babies, and small children women tend to be in the workforce for shorter periods leading to men taking up many of the higher positions. Angela Merkel pointed out that Gemany tended to take a narrow view of professions available to girls, saying- "So it is very very important that we take a broader view of things while girls are still at school." Merkel also supports a Africa compact that would help women set up small and middle size businesses in poor countries. The "Digital" aspects of this and other efforts for women were a major topic being discussed. One idea that came up was that more cooperation from men was needed to make things happen. This is the third Women20 Summit after ones in Turkey and China, and a sense of momentum was felt by women. ...

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This report in the WSJ  shows that president Xi is pulling back from his signature economic policy to reduce wide gaps in wealth and opportunities in China. In 2021 this was a policy that Xi pushed to reduce inequalities that have built up over decades of hypergrowth. One tenth of the population owns 68% of the wealth in China creating an highly unequal society. Concerned about the future of the Communist party as disparities kept widening and 40% of the population was left behind, Xi early on in his first and second terms made tackling corruption and inequality part of his policy.  Yet the way China's economy is structured, its dependence on the construction industry for growth, and on local governments for investment, it is easier to tackle infrastructure projects than address widening gaps in society. Xi's efforts have led to slowdown in growth to 5% or less. With the US and Europe moving to shorter supply chains and moving supply chains to less integration with China, slowing growth to less than 4-5% presents a major challenge for China. Leading to a pull back from the Common Prosperity policies that Xi initiated and which are part of Communist party policy in its early period after 1949. A major problem for China says WSJ is that social security contributions revenue is 6.5% of GDP compared to 9% for advanced countries in the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Personal income taxes are 1.2% of GDP compared to 10% in UK and US. This prevents the better funding of programs for maintaining a better safety net and social support for the less well off in society. The pandemic followed by Ukraine war have added new urgency to the acceleration of the effort to build new supply chains, leading to new manufacturing innovation and manufacturing leadership in the US and European Union, and in countries such as Japan, India, and other parts of Asia. This too has made the goals of reducing inequalities and addressing the wide disparities in Chinese society more difficult with sharply slowing growth in China. This was also the experience of Japan and South Korea with decades of fast growth followed by sharp slowdown with unanticipated problems. ...

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Rick Perry faces criticism from Republican candidates Romney, Bachmann, Huntsman and Paul at the Republican presidential candidate debate in Tampa on September 12, 2011. Perry defended his remarks on Social Security by telling viewers- "slam dunk guaranteed that program is going to be in place." Romney suggested Perry had been served four aces for his jobs record in Texas. And Santorum accused Perry of providing education assistance to illegal immigrants to attract the Latino vote. Perry defended his remarks on Fed chairman Bernanke printing money amounting to treasonous behaviour.

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The Post's Lally Weymouth interviews Enrique Pena Nieto, leading presidential candidate in Mexico. Nieto discusses the war on drug cartels. He says his government is commited to continuing the fight, but says Calderon's strategy has not worked, and the need now is for reducing the rising level of crime. Nieto's priorities are to open up the economy to competition by reducing the power of the monopolies and oligarchs, reduce poverty by providing social security to all Mexicans, increasing private investment in Pemex, and increasing the taxpayer base to finance new investment and programs.

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Project 2025, originating at the Heritage Foundation, most dangerous idea similar to abolishing Social Security is to consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve. Why? Because the Fed was established to avoid banking panics and setup a sound banking system, a sound economic system. It suggests unravelling solutions that were developed after one hundred years of experience gained by US that has made the period since 1950 the least crisis prone compared to prior to Fed's formation in 1913.  Mr. Trump himself said in 2022 that the Heritage Foundation will "lay the groundwork and detail the plans" for what our movement will do, according to the WSJ report." It has become a matter of huge controversy with plans for outright attacks on the civil service, a blueprint of plans to shut down important government agencies such as the Education Department, Department of Homeland Security, and affect the functioning of the government of the United States in accordance with the Constitution.  The most radical is to change the financial system of the US that evolved from the Great Depression and previous economic crises since 1900 that led to the formation of the US Federal Reserve as the central bank that monitors aspects of the economy such as inflation and unemployment. Project 2025 says consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve and replace it with 'free banking' that does not control interest rates or the supply of money. These are untested ideas but more significant is the fact that it is the US Fed that under different presidents has taken the lead in managing the economy when a crisis happened. President Woodrow Wilson signed into law the founding of the US Fed, and its regional Fed system with a. supervisory board in Washington on Dec 23, 1913. Before the Fed the US currency was printed by individual banks and inflation or the economy could not be controlled. This led to banking panics the last in 2007, with great loss to the working people and families of America. It is unthinkable today that individual banks not the central bank the US Fed would issue US currency dollar banknotes. Yet it is just this kind of radical Barry Goldwater type of idea that is being put forward in Project 2025 that is written for a future administration running the country. ...

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On Jan 19, 2023 the US hit its debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion. Republicans control the House of Representatives by only a few votes after a strong showing in midterms by Democrats who control the Senate. A small section of the Republican party insists that raising the debt ceiling- a task performed by the House of Representatives- should only be done with serious cuts to Biden programs to help workers and families during a cost of living crisis. Biden says he will not negotiate, simply won't.  This report in NYT by Jim Tankersley, says president Biden in the last resort could resort to the 14th Amendment which says: "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions shall not be questioned." What this means is that in the last resort if Republicans insist on serious cuts because of a faction within the party, and not because the whole party supports it, Mr. Biden could continue public borrowings to pay social security and make other payments. Moody's says this would lead to a rise in borrowing costs temporarily but would not lead to a recession, and have long term benefits as the debt ceiling could not be applied in the future. It would be challenged by Republicans and go to the Supreme Court which would have to decide on the issue: "the validity of the public debt of the United States shall not be questioned." This drew 1338 comments on NYT. ...

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A detailed breakdown of the the waste, fraud and improper payments in federal spending is shown in this WSJ report. . Of $4.1 trillion, a big chunk of the $6.7 trillion the US had in federal spending in 2024 according to CBO, 3.7% is self identified by agencies as improper payments or $149 billion. 90% of improper payments are overpayments. It reached a high of 7.1% of federal spending in 2021 during the pandemic when loose controls led to more improper payments. Only $22 billion was recovered for 2024. Outside agency control including state and local control where the federal and states are running programs is the single most difficulty in getting improper payments back. Top government programs with improper payments are: Health and Human Services Medicare $31.7 billion Medicaid   $31.1 billion Medicare Advantage $19.1 billion Medicare Prescription Benefit $3.6 billion Treasury - Earned Income Credit $15.9 billion Agriculture- Supplemental Nutrition Assistance $10.5 billion Social Security Supplemental Security Income $6.5 billion Labor- Federal and State Unemployment Insurance $5.1 billion ...

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University of Texas professor James Galbraith tells Tom Keene that its a good thing that the supercommittee failed because long term cuts to Social Security and Medicare would have inflicted significant damage to the middle class in the U.S. He says if the U.S. cannot make large investments in infrastructure building, one necessary step is to make a large increase in the minimum wage. He considers the ratings agencies downgrade of the U.S. credit rating an act fit for comedy, because these are the same agencies which not only missed the subprime crisis but actually benefitted and supported it with misconceived ratings.

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Good practices for planning retirement in today's environment. Delaying retirement and working longer is important to increase the amount of money available for retirement, especially in today's low return environment. Avoiding increasing the ratio of stocks to bonds and cash beyond the 40% that has become an established practice is important say experts. The 4% rule for withdrawals after retirement should be modified to 3% because of uncertain returns in today's environment. Delaying Social Security adds 8% each year to monthly benefits, says one expert, making this an important and necessary practice in planning for retirement for all Americans.

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About 7 million people or 10.3% of people living in France in 2021 were immigrants, says national statistics agency INSEE. Compare that with 6.5% in 1968. About one third have acquired French citizenship. What this has done to French society is to shift sentiment away from protecting workers and families struggling with a cost of living crisis by splitting the vote of traditional parties supporting working class families. Shifting some of it to the far right anti-immigration parties that have emerged since 2010. This has added to the fracturing of society that happened from neglect of manufacturing communities across France as more manufacturing was concentrated overseas in  China. Neglect of rural areas and smaller towns, the emergence of tech hubs disconnected from the larger community across France has added to this. This is true of other European countries and a similar situation happened in the US. Denmark's prime minister is very candid about this, saying immigration of this type hurts the working class families in Denmark. Mette Frederiksen of the Social Democrats is the first to have clearly stated this problem and is providing a new way of protecting Danish workers and families from these social and technological changes in society from which they have no protection. President Biden in the US has also grasped clearly the dimensions and magnitude of the problems facing workers and families in the US. The problem is not limited to worker loss of income security, it affects the whole society and the public as a whole in other ways. Opportunistic politicians using anti-immigration appeals without a true commitment to democratic principles and ideas have tendencies that threaten democracy itself. This is the real danger of concentrating manufacturing in one country such as happened with China. And of neglecting rural areas and small towns. For this reason Frederiksen in Denmark, Biden in the US, and other leaders in Europe are looking for ways to send aid and industry promoting assistance to poor countries but restricting illegal immigration. This requires handling cultural issues which have further hit society with care- "with malice towards none, with charity for all," so that the focus can be kept on the real issues affecting workers and families of the cost of living crisis and a better life, better education, health care and public services for all, to improve the quality of living. It requires a new state of mindfulness from leaders in North America and Europe, as well as from allied countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa.  ...

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Lawrence Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, writes on August 2, the day the debt ceiling deal passed the U.S. Congress. His reaction to the deal is one of relief, cynicism and economic anxiety. Relief that the deal does no immediate damage to the economy, which he says is no small achievement. This comes from not denting the U.S. safety net of Medicaid, Social Security and other social programs in the midst of high unemployment. And raising the debt ceiling through 2012 avoids a repeat of the kind of tense negotiations that took place recently. Cynicism because with the revised information from the Commerce Department of 0.4% growth in the first quarter and 1.4% growth in the second quarter of 2011, the new forecast of U.S. budget deficits would be much higher in the years further out. A mere loss of one half percentage point in the annual rate of growth could add $1 trillion dollars to the national debt in 2021. Summers points out that Congress votes annually on discretionary spending and a current Congress cannot control what a future Congress does. Caps and sequester deals can be reformulated in 2013 by a new Congress. This deal says Summers has only confirmed the lower levels of spending already negotiated for 2011 and 2012, even though the estimates show $1 trillion in deficit reduction. For the remaining $1.2 trillion in reductions to be negotiated by the "super-committee" there is no baseline for these cuts- it is not stated whether this baseline is with the Bush high income tax cuts included or excluded. His economic anxiety comes from the low rate of growth in the first half of 2011 which suggest an economy at close to a standstill. He sees a one in three chance of a U.S. recession in the absence of any efforts to spur growth. Martin Feldstein was quoted on television business channels on August 2, saying he sees a 50% chance of the economy slipping back into a recession. Steps Summers advocates are a non-extension of the Bush high-income tax cuts which would add $1 trillion to deficit reduction, some entitlement reform, extension of the payroll tax cut, extension of unemployment insurance, and infrastructure maintenance....

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It is about the fighting spirit of FDR and reviving and renewing the New Frontier of John F. Kennedy that was muddled by the Vietnam War. As Frank Bruni in NYT, and many others are saying US president Biden seen along with the team of Jake Sullivan at NSA, Anthony Blinken at State, Janet Yellen at Treasury, and Katherine Tsai at USTR, Pat Schumer Majority Leader in the US Senate and other cabinet members may be the best team in terms of experience and talent that the US has had in many decades, combining relative youth (Sullivan and Tsai) with many years of experience (Schumer, Yellen and the president). The president's experience in US Congress for about 40 years was invaluable in getting through Congress the Chips and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the assistance to families during the pandemic. Only LBJ in recent post war American history had this kind of experience in getting Medicare and Social Security legislation through Congress. Combining this with the experience and negotiating skill for legislation of Pat Schumer Senate Majority Leader is something not seen since the 1960's. This team comes with a clear dedication and plan to restore democracy to the people by building infrastructure, rebuilding American manufacturing and protecting workers and families through cost of living action and higher wages. As Jake Sullivan NSA, a law clerk for Supreme Court Justice, and one who with the advice of the president has put domestic policy at the heart of foreign policy, puts it for workers and families in the US, these are goals he said at Brookings, "we must, we will achieve." Compare that with every other administration since FDR and Kennedy/LBJ for workers and families everything pales in comparison.  ...

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Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar makes a 3 day visit to Saudi Arabia. He addressed diplomats at the Prince Saud Al Faisal Institute of Diplomatic Studies in Riyadh. He will co-chair with Prince Faisal bin Al Saud the first ministerial meeting of the Committee on Political, Security, Social and Cultural  Cooperation (PSSC), established under the framework of the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council. What is happening here is that the Saudis can build their own ties in the region as they choose what is best for the future, compared to the relationship in the past which was as a state mainly dependent on the US but which sorely lagged behind in educationally, culturally, in developing its own scientific and technology institutions to transition into the modern age. The relationship in the past also appeared to be rooted in the colonial period that had transitioned only half way out of the colonial period into the relationship built by America's FDR and succeeding presidents with the royal family and monarchy of Saudi Arabia. Under Mohamad Bin Salman it now gives Saudis an opportunity to make its own choices with the help of neighbors such as India, Japan, and other countries. It also strengthens the relationship with the US and the EU in unseen ways through the Saudi relationship with India, Japan and other countries. Bilateral trade is at $30 billion for FY22 April to December. India imports 18% of crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia. Indian imports worth $23 billion, Indian exports worth $7 billion to Saudis. About 2.2 million Indians are living in Saudi Arabia. During the pandemic India was the closest health ally of the Saudis.   ...

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Prof. Barry Naughton at the University of California, San Diego, looks at how China has approached tech regulation in a way that has not yet happened in the US and Europe. It says tech regulation expands the role of the government, yet is one that has "a reasonable regulatory rationale," and can be easily supported on an individual basis. It says the US and Europe have recognized the issues that need to be tackled as tech companies were left with no checks or regulation after growing in insidious ways in the last ten years, but have so far failed to act on this knowledge. Some of the goals pursued in China made sense for China it says- technology self-reliance after delinking with the US, data security, de-risking the housing market, getting on a path to carbon neutrality. Other goals such as de-licensing tutoring companies and reregistering as non profit companies-  this was because of president Xi's concern that excessive costs and stress were discouraging Chinese families from having more children as China's population ages rapidly. This means the government plays a bigger role yet Naughton says when it coms to the goal of reducing inequality China has still to come up with ways to use tax policy and other ways to mitigate an extremely unequal distribution of wealth in China. Today this is limited to donations and giving by companies. In the US and Europe social democratic governments from Biden, Scholz and others are taking serious steps and have plans to address these problems of common prosperity with plans to help families and workers. ...

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Tim Walz uses a sports metaphor about being one behind, fighting for every inch in this football game to score, as he brings to life this final effort of 75 days to win the election for president Kamala Harris, for president Biden, and for workers and families across the 51 States. Read the full speech at the Convention as Tim Walz accepts the Democratic nomination for Vice President. "Their Project 2025 will make things much, much harder for people who are just trying to live their lives. They spend a lot of time pretending they know nothing about this. But look, I coached high school football long enough to know, and trust me on this: When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re going to use it. And we know, if these guys get back in the White House, they’ll start jacking up the costs on the middle class. They’ll repeal the Affordable Care Act. They’ll gut Social Security and Medicare. And they will ban abortion across this country, with or without Congress. Here’s the thing. It’s an agenda nobody asked for. It’s an agenda that serves nobody, except the richest and the most extreme amongst us. And it’s an agenda that does nothing for our neighbors in need. Is it weird? Absolutely. Absolutely. But it’s also wrong, and it’s dangerous. It’s not just me saying so, it’s Trump’s own people. They were with him for four years. They’re warning us that the next four years will be much, much worse." ...

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Goldfarb says everyone is focussed on the "fiscal cliff," yet there are other issues which when put together could lead to a drop of 1 percentage point in growth and add a million people to the jobless. The temporary payroll tax cut for 160 million workers was setup in Dec. 2010. The payroll tax which funds Social Security is 4.2% since then, down from 6.2%, adding about $1000 for the average family to spend. The unemployment insurance benefits which expire for millions of people will also have an impact. As will the $60 billion in spending cuts on domestic and defense spending under an agreement made in the summer of 2012.

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Pena Nieto, the new president of Mexico, says that this is a new generation and a different PRI party from the one in the past. His focus is to learn from efforts made by countries such as China, Brazil and India in modernization and reducing poverty, so that Mexico can fulfill its potential. His goal will be to avoid ideological positions and patronage, and achieve measurable progress against poverty in Mexico. He cites the Mexico's Office of National Statistics figures showing Mexico's growth rate at 1.7% for 2000-2010, and the lack of reforms in the energy sector, labor markets, education and social security.

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The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revised estimates in May 2013 show the U.S. debt to GDP ratio in 2013 at about 75.1%, coming down slightly in the next couple of years and then rising to about 73.6% by 2023. The U.S. deficit for fiscal 2013 is estimated to be about 4% of GDP, down from 7% in 2012 and 10.1% in 2009. The deficit is estimated at 3.4% of GDP in fiscal 2014 and 2.1% of GDP in 2015. Spending levels increase closer to the 2020s as more people reach retirement age. Lower projections on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security spending have reduced the cumulative deficits over the next decade.

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Peter Coy of Bloomberg Business Week points out that the debt ceiling and proposed deficit reductions in the range of $4 trillion really obscure the real size of the problem which is much larger. The real problems hit when the U.S. faces a larger graying population by 2020 with sharply higher per capita health care spending; and at the same time workers from this generation retire and become beneficiaries of Social Security and Medicare with fewer younger workers to support the system with tax revenues. Another problem is that older Americans are likely as a voting bloc to vote themselves benefits that will cost the younger generation, benefits that the younger generation will not be able to enjoy. Even the Paul Ryan plan with its cuts to Medicare insulated todays seniors from the sharp cuts, as it becomes political necessity for both Republicans and Democrats to shy away from touching the current beneficiaries.

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John Harwood's interview with Govenor Rick Perry. Harwood asks Perry tough questions about his 20% flat tax, spending cuts and the deficit (response: the only way to get the country working again is to reduce the tax burden across the board and create the incentives to invest), raising the retirement age for Social Security (response: will discuss this one with Congress), views on regulation (response: regulators did not do their job, nothing wrong with the old regulatory system). Perry saying that this is the way America has always worked- by creating the incentives to invest. Perry say he is for a bold plan not something that will trim things at the edges as Romney would do.

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France's public finances and how this affects the strength of the euro-zone package of 750 billon euros to support eurozone countries facing financial crisis. France has a ratio of government debt to GDP of 80%, with BNP Paribas forecasting it to go up to 90%. France's budget deficit is forecast at 8% for 2010. And with high taxes it is risky for President Sakozy to raise taxes. The government's target is to cut the deficit to 3% by 2013. Part of the plan is to close tax loopholes, unwind stimulus spending, and to address the social security deficit. Weakened by poor midterm election results and facing strong unions, Sarkozy's options are limited.

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Australian anthropologist Genevieve Bell heads a group of 75 people at Intel Labs working to figure out all the ways technology affects people and society. Here she talks to NYT's Quentin Hardy. She says there are three areas in which technology is changing the way we live, and act, and our relationship to society. Like electrification the digital revolution is changing the concept of time, introducing new ideas about availability and response time. Here she points out the need to leave some parts of the day for disconnectedness, to preserve quiet time in our lives for recharging and getting a sense of who and where we are. Then there is the idea of space, of imaginary space when connecting to people in distant places, and physical space such as at airports and public places with wifi and internet to connect. After space and time come social relationships, about relating to one's fellow human beings. With this comes ideas of privacy, security and risk. With changes in how we view time, space and social relationships, comes anxiety. Social movements are likely to develop around ideas of government and governance, on issues such as what it means to be unequal and denied economic opportunity, when the digital revolution itself is opening up new visions of what is possible, just as electrification did at the turn of the twentieth century....