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The low number of confirmed cases and small number of deaths in India and Pakistan is being analyzed for what to expect in the coming months from June to August. Some experts see this as just the beginning that the peak will come later on. India has about 75,000 cases and Pakistan 35,000. Testing has lagged behind with only 1.5 tests per thousand people compared to 26 per thousand in the U.S.  one reason the confirmed case count is lower. Some confidence is being drawn from the deaths- 2415 in India and 737 in Pakistan. This is because only 2.2% of cases in India and 3.3% in Pakistan led to deaths, compared to 14.3% in UK and 5.5% in China, 6% in U.S., using John Hopkins database. One reason given is that only 6.4% of India's population and 4.3% of Pakistan's is over 65 years age. Compare mean age in Italy 46 years to 27 in India and 23 in Pakistan. And there is plenty of sunlight which appear to destroy the virus. Other factors that may influence the virus- taking of the tuberculosis vaccine and routine exposure to more pathogens in both countries. Prime minister Modi in India is taking no chances considering the size of India's population. He has put forward a $280 billion economic package and is moving in deliberate carefully prepared steps to lift lockdowns with the current phase No. 4 allowing more reopening. The shift now is to a more self reliant economy in industrial production making "local more vocal."  During the lockdown the large rail network and postal networks with their millions of employees, IT technology driven banking with Aadhar identification for direct deposit to hundreds of millions of the most needy citizens, and farmers, proved to be the most reliable and supportive. ...

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India's vaccination drive which has passed one billion vaccinations is one of the great stories of our time. This report in DW.com looks at vaccination drive in a region that is densely forested. It is in central India in the state of Chhattisgarh with about 30 million people and about 7 million tribal people living in dense forests that make up 40% of the state's territory.  One such place is the Dandakaranya forest, Sukma district, 500 kilometres from the state captial of Raipur. It takes an arduous journey just to get to this place which has no electricity, no potable water and no road connectivity.  Block development officer Kapil Kashyap from Sukma tells DW.com how they worked hard, won trust among villagers and brought basic medical services to them. Astonishingly with such effort to overcome vaccine hesitancy, 95% of the people in the village here had their first shot, and 40% received two doses. It is such a kind of effort in every district that prime minister Modi has called for in the unrelenting effort needed to vaccinate fully 1.3 billion Indians. ...

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In the meeting in the Oval Office Biden and Modi had this to say about India US relations. Modi called it a "transformative" decade. Mr. Biden called it a "new chapter" in ties, taking on tough challenges in coronavirus vaccines for the rest of Asia outside India and China, tackling climate change, and ensuring rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region.  Biden's view- "I think that the relationship between India and the US, two of the largest democracies in the world, is destined to be stronger, closer, tighter, and I think it can benefit the whole world." A look at the US under the Biden administration shows a US that is very different from that of the US in the period of presidents since Harry Truman when he met Jawaharlal Nehru at the White House in October 1949. Biden sees the US needing renewal of its infrastructure, reviving worker incomes and families, regaining its leadership of the free world, for its role and place in the world. Throughout the period 1949 to 2020 for 70 years India was never seen as a modernizing nation of 1.2 billion people. For most of this period it lacked the good governance and speedy implementation of modernization of economy that is essential for a truly good relationship. By releasing the potential of the younger generation in a country where people under 35 years form the major part of the population, with good governance and development agenda, the Indian prime minister has changed the entire dynamics of the India US relationship. This is happening in the way China had done in its relationship with the US after 2000 by modernizing the country. India is now the country with huge potential and the country the US sees as helping it build its own role and place in the world. The sheer size of India and its population with countries around it in the east such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam with shared values in south and southeast Asia bring together a population of close to 2 billion people much larger than China, to determine the direction of Asia.  This is the new chapter that president Biden has in mind, and it is also the "transformative decade" in the eyes of prime minister Modi as India finally puts behind it years of bad governance, and speeds up modernizing its economy.   ...

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Oxford Biomedica is the company that is part of the consortium making the coronavirus vaccine being developed by Oxford University's Jenner Institute.  Her Mr. Dawson describes the challenges he faced and cash crunches 4 times in 12 years, the last 4 years ago. The turning point he says was in 2012 when the cell and gene therapy was validated with a new drug developed for a form of cancer using this method. Oxford Biomedica is setting up a facility for manufacturing the vaccine in England at a 84,000 square foot former Royal Mail sorting facility in the city's business park called Oxpark. Dawson says cell and gene therapy is going to be big in health care. He did not see it coming till 2012. In 2014 he says during a cash crunch they had realized that what they had to do at Biomedica was to get to the time when it was going to be big. Today Astra Zeneca of the UK is organizing the effort and includes the use of British and Indian facilities for manufacturing, and Oxford University for research effort. ...

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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

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All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...

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Boris Johnson looks back to September of 2020 when he was at the Edward Jenner Institute in Oxford and scientists showed him the first slides of antibodies from the developing Oxford vaccine, and his realization that this was a cause for optimism, for Britain and the world.  Today its manufacture in India, Britain and other parts of the world show the meaning of Global Britain, says Johnson. By engaging with the world, both the world benefits and Britain gains. A larger view is that of protecting the values that originated in Britain and are part of the order in other parts of the world, including the rule of law, representative democracy, habeas corpus, freedom of speech. The new review of Britain in the world today is about how Global Britain engages with the world, with like minded nations, with democracies in Asia and Europe, America, to build a better future for all, and to advance those ideas and beliefs against those who oppose them, says Johnson. ...

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Ignorance about the risks and benefits of good healthcare was once seen as a problem in less developed countries such as in South Asian region. The coronavirus is changing this so quickly that it leaves one incredulous. This report in WSJ shows how people in the U.S. are questioning the risks of coronavirus, skeptical about prevention measures, and questioning the value of a vaccine. From El Paso, Texas to Boise, Idaho in smaller towns and cities across the U.S. there are higher daily cases because of this attitude. The U.S. had daily cases of new infections of 195,000 on december 2 during the second wave. Compare this with 31,000 in India on December 1 for 4 times the population and one can see that nothing can be treated as given or a state of affairs that will exist in the future- the capacity for change is upto oneself. Even this reversal for the U.S. can be changed starting with a clean slate and a clean heart after lessons are learned.

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IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath, says multispeed recoveries are in place in regions and across income groups, linked to the differences in vaccine rollout, and extent of economic policy support. 

All regions in the world are expected to grow faster than estimated in January 2021 by IMF. 

US - forecast raised to 6.4% from 5.1%, this follows contraction of 3.5% in 2020. Rapid vaccination drive and large economic support under president Biden accelerating growth. About $5 trillion in economic support in the US by April 2021.

Europe- forecasts raised for growth in UK and Italy.

Latin America- growth forecast raised to 4.6% from 4.1%.

Africa- growth forecast raised to 3.4% from 3.2%.

Emerging and developing economies including India as a whole- growth forecast raised to 6.7% from 6.3%.

 

 

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In his farewell speech Boris Johnson, with true British resilient spirit,  says "I will be giving fervent support to Liz Truss and her government every step of the way." Johnson likened his transfer of power to Ms Truss to a relay race. "The baton will be handed over," saying it "unexpectedly turned into a relay race, they changed the rules halfway through." But he expressed no feelings of regret, having come to terms with the arrangement in his own way. More likely Johnson is without saying it still determining the policies and direction of the government, perhaps more so now with Liz Truss and his loyalists the only persons in the cabinet and running the British government. Johnson addressed people's fears about the energy price increases- "the UK would continue to have the strength to give people cash they need to get through this energy crisis that is caused by Putin's vicious war."  He listed his government's achievements- the response to Covid. Some of this is forgotten as the UK not the EU leadership was first to move forward with vaccination plans. Johnson put his government's faith in the vaccine invented at Oxford University and committed early while the EU languished under Merkel and her protege Ursula Von der Leyen. The EU fell behind in providing vaccine leadership as Britain forged ahead early, giving hope to the rest of the world's population including India that adopted the Oxford vaccine. Johnson likened his role to the missions to the planets- "Let me say I am now like one of those booster rockets that has fulfilled its function and I will be re-entering the atmosphere and splashing down invisibly into some remote and obscure corner of the Pacific." Johnson has taken the situation in a truly British way without any rancor and gracefully. With Liz Truss in charge he even gets a break after the difficult period handling the once in a century pandemic, handing over to a younger member of his group, and yet deciding on many of the policies and guiding the government for the term it was elected for to 2024. History will look at him favorably for his handling of the pandemic and vaccination, and for his instincts about the Ukraine war and Britain's unwavering support, and now in guiding Truss to provide Britain with strong support for the cost of living crisis caused by the war. His failings stem partly from his exuberance and optimistic spirit, but nowhere near detract from these achievements. ...

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Novax vaccine could be a game changer for the poor countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Novax has 90% efficacy overall and 93% effectiveness against the UK, South Africa and Brazil variants. The Delta variant was not there during the trials. Novavax has signed an agreement to provide 1.1 billion doses to Covax, the organization which is designed to send vaccines to poor countries. India has contracted through Serum Institute of India to make 100 million doses. UK has ordered 60 million doses that may be sent to the developing world.

Novavax vaccine goes for regulatory approval in the third quarter of 2021.

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The P1 coronavirus variant from Brazil is seen in 200 of 877 cases in ski resort in Whistler, British Columbia. Helath officials have little knowledge of how this variant entered Canada's western province. This report says the housing shortage for hospitality workers is worsening the pandemic with 6-8 hospitality workers living together and no chance to limit the spread.   The decision by the state health officials not to screen with testing for which variant is responsible for an infection of covid is coming under criticism, as reported in The Guardian. This allows the variant to spread with no knowledge about where it is happening so that countermeasures can be taken. In the absence of this type of screening and testing one is flying blind, says this report. Recent steps to contain the spread in India advocated by prime minister Modi in India give micro-containment a big role, with screening and testing and detection of incidence of mutation becoming critical. To do this the health system has to be well prepared and have full support and direction from a unified authority bringing together every arm of government at the federal, state and local levels. Response has to be very quick and resource allocation proper from testing labs, people on the ground, vaccine supplies, and vaccination drive effective. ...

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So far Covax Africa is proving to be a failure. Consider the numbers 1 billion people only 31 million vaccines given. Another wave of the virus is underway with 130% rise in cases in Uganda, increase taking place in DRC, Namibia. About 30% increase in cases for all of Africa this week. The new Delta variant that is twice as contagious as the original virus is widespread in the UK and is an unacceptable risk in Africa and in Europe and the US.


 By comparison India has 1.2 billion people and 230 million people vaccinated with at least one dose.

US has 330 million people and has adminstered 300 million doses. UK and Brazil have each adminstered over 70 million doses.

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PM Modi talks about the changes since 2014 and the difference in India now compared to before 2014, during his visit to Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, a place that is close to his heart. His visit is for the "Garib Kalyan Sammelan" for the many schemes launched by his government for the benefit of ordinary people. "Before 2014 there were headlines in the newspapers, debates were taking place on TV channels regarding loot corruption and scams. But time has changed, now the talk is about benefit of government schemes. The World Bank too talks about ease of doing business in India. The Government prior to 2014 regarded corruption as a necessary part of the system. That government succumbed to corruption instead of fighting it. The country then was watching money for schemes being looted instead of going to the needy." With the combination of Jan Dhan, Aadhar and Mobile Modi said money was directly reaching the beneficiary account. Previous governments had accepted that money would not reach the beneficiary and development would be looted. "We have taken the initiative to make 100% benefits reach 100% of the beneficiaries. The government has taken the pledge for reaching the saturation of beneficiaries. 100% empowerment means ending the discrimination, every poor person gets the full benefit of government schemes." "Earlier there was compulsion to suffer because of smoke from the kitchen, today there is the facility to get LPG cylinders from the Ujjwala scheme. Earlier there was the shame of open defecation, today the poor have dignity of toilets. Earlier there was helplessness to raise money for treatment and hospitalization, today the poor have the benefit of Ayushman Bharat." PM Modi talked about how the Northeast was alienated before 2014, and now it was connected by heart and by infrastructure. During the pandemic India sent medicine and vaccines to 150 countries. India stretched out its hand to help other nations. India, he said, has shown that it not only has the potential, it is also a performer. International organizations are accepting that poverty is coming down and there are more facilities for the people. ...

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The problems of vaccine access in Africa affect us all - this is the simple truth. Here the NYT gives letters from people on the frontlines, healthcare workers in Africa who in one situation in the Sudan had over 4000 people arrive some by canoe through floods and had only 545 vaccines. Africa Centers for CDC show 79% of people in Africa will take the vaccination. Vaccine access for Africa is something that should be on the top of the list for Biden in the US, Johnson in UK, Modi in India, Scholz in Germany, and for all world leaders.

 

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India stands true to the principles of Mohandas Gandhi and joins Pope Francis in strongly condemning the killing of innocent civilians in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Gandhi would have done in his own way when he even paused the nonviolent struggle against the British after the burning of police stations in British India. Of no less significance is the danger of food insecurity caused by the war in Asia, Africa and Latin America which India is meeting. India is America's true partner in the free world in a way that even Germany, France, even Britain fail to be now that we know Merkel's policy "errors" and Macron's lofty ambitions for Europe, emboldened Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. American and German business integration of the American and German economies with China may also have emboldened Russia and China in their perceptions of world affairs that directly conflict with China's Buddhist history, Gandhi's view of the world, and India as the land of the Buddha.  Mr. Biden will talk with Modi about the invasion of Ukraine , the Indo-Pacific, and the building of strong India-US partnership. A major issue that has not been discussed at this level is the challenge India is facing and meeting of food security after the war in Ukraine. Pakistan, Sri Lanka and many developing countries are feeling the effects of the war with soaring food prices denying access to basic necessities in these countries. This extends to countries from Asia to Africa and Latin America affecting hundreds of millions of people.  India is providing food assistance following its effort to share vaccines in a remarkable effort that has not received the world's attention. Vaccination for over a billion people in India has taken place in one of the significant achievements during the pandemic. This was combined with food security assistance to hundreds of millions of people in India in India's population of 1.2 billion people. India is now in a position to meet some of the world's food needs with its own efforts in agricultural production. In this way the role played by the US since World War II for peace and security is being met by India as a significant partner in the free world, and in a way this is returning the kind of help the US offered India during the period of famine in the sixties. US president Biden understands this as he will discuss "mitigating the destabilising impact on global food supply and commodity markets" of the war in Ukraine. These are the hidden costs of the war that are not less painful than the gory war scenes unfolding today in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and because they are about food they are of no less importance. ...

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Saudi Arabian deputy defense minister Prince Khalid says polls show Saudis younger than 30 years old favor improved relations with Israel. As a first step Israeli planes would be allowed to fly over Saudi Arabia and control over two islands in the region would be handed over to the Saudis.  President Biden as a candidate had concerns about human rights in Saudi Arabia. Following the war with Ukraine and improving Saudi Israel relations it now appears likely that this will have an impact in improving US relations with the Saudis. Prince Khalid visited Washington and William Burns has also visited the Middle East for the Biden administration as it seeks to get Saudi Arabia to increase oil production following the EU oil embargo on Russian oil.  Saudis under Prince Salman who heads the administration are pushing to modernize Saudi Arabia and build ties for a broader relationship with the world than the traditional ties in the Middle East of Arab countries.The Saudis are improving relations with India and India was the first country to ship vaccines to Saudi Arabia. UAE and Qatar have also improved relations with the Modi administration in India. With China  engaged in trade and technology friction with the US after US investment and aid to China during the last 2 decades and the long period of aid to China during the Japanese invasion, the US is building new relationships in Asia, the Pacific and the Middle East. The new Saudi US relationship would be different from that of the old Saudi relationship as Saudi remains a monarchy but under the new administration and a younger generation of Saudis sees itself as a modernizing influence in the region. Biden sees these new factors as it looks to rebuild relationships in Asia.   ...

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People have to take charge of their own lives by eating healthy food and lots of fruits and vegetables, to reduce obesity in this pandemic. Studies show that people with obesity were twice as likely to end up in hospital, and 74% more likely to end up in intensive care. Efforts to rid our diets of sugary drinks and junk or processed foods need to be escalated, and exercize, walking, cycling, other activity need to be made part of our daily activity. This needs to be taken up as a fight for life, a war against decades of neglect and reckless behaviour in eating habits.  Even vaccines will not work well when body mass index BMI is over 30. Obesity has reached unbelievable and scary levels - 66% in the UK, U.S., high in the Middle East, and increasing all over the world. Added risk is high smoking levels in China and India. Coca Cola takes the place of water in parts of Mexico where obesity is high and Mexico has suffered from high coronavirus cases. ...

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The state of India's fight against Tuberculosis is shown here by AID's Atul Gawande in NYT. He visits a homeless shelter in New Delhi and asks what can be done to prevent the number one infectious disease in India and globally. The disease affects 1 in 38000 in the US and 1 in 500 in India a huge contrast as poverty and poor health conditions increase spread of TB. It grows with depleted immune systems and poor food intake. This alone shows how important it was and continues to be that prime minister Modi put forward no cost (free) allocation of foodgrains, lentils and vegetables during the pandemic to hundreds of millions of needy households. This and Clean India campaign Swacch Bharat + Har Ghar Jal Clean Water Every Household  play a critical role in providing the basic environment for health in India at the ground level for nutrition+ clean water, and sanitation. India has allocated $1.7 billion for TB prevention and treatment. 4-5 TB vaccines are in test stages.  Nearly 90 percent of estimated TB cases are now being diagnosed with treatment success rates high, says Gawande. Prevention is also at a similar level.   ...

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Speaking for the Biden administration Anthony Blinken says that "on the current trajectory, if we don't do more, if the entire world doesn't do more, the entire world won't be vaccinated until 2024." What is needed he said is to "speed this up, and get that done, I think, in a much shorter time." Experts say the immediate impact of the Biden decision to give waivers on transfer of patents technologies is to get drug companies to cooperate with each other and for them to voluntarily join in the manufacture of vaccines globally. This would be done through global manufacturing alliances in major pharmaceutical manufacturing nations such as France, India and other countries that can quickly ramp up manufacturing if they have access to the technologies involved and the knowhow itself. The Biden decision is then the first of many decisions that would lead to voluntary action by pharmaceutical companies cooperating say Novartis and Sanofi in France and Switzerland with a Pfizer or Moderna in increasing manufacturing capacity or a Serum Institute or Reddy Labs in India working with Pfizer and Moderna or Novavax. These companies already have the basic structures to ramp up. This would take months yet the process has to start immediately. Today many companies such as Glaxo Smith Kline in UK and US are in a position to get involved in manufacturing but need access to the technologies and knowhow. Leadership by the US plays a huge part in making that happen.  ...

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Episode 121 of Mann Ki Baat by PM Modi of India on April 27, 2025 covers a range of subjects from the economic advancement of Kashmir region and the efforts to disrupt this economic progress, to the fight for freedom at Champaran and the role played by Rajendra Prasad. It looks at the British rule in India forcing farmers in Bihar to destroy their land's productivity by planting indigo to meet British traders demands. This was leading to farmers and their families starving for lack of food till Mohandas Gandhi took up the struggle to help farmers with the first test of Satyagraha struggle.Modi describes the months of April as a period of independence struggles from the Jallianwalla Bagh massacre by the British in the Punjab, and the Dandi March from the sea to protest British Salt Tax. Modi describes the efforts to aid Myanmar in earthquake relief, and vaccine aid to Nepal and Afghanistan. He talks about India's scientific mission to Moon, Mars and its 106th launch of space satellite flights. He describes how science is attracting the nation's youth and its imagination as even in Chhatisgarh science centers are attracting young people. This gives a good sign about the future for modernization of the biggest nation in the world. ...

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The Biden vaccination target of 70% of American adults at least partially vaccinated with one dose by July 4, 2021 remains elusive as vaccination rates have dropped. From a high of 2 million a day vaccinations have dropped to 400,000 a day during the first week of June 2021. Vaccination skepticism particularly in the south and western part of the US is making it harder to vaccinate the rest of the US population. This poses increasing risks as the new variants of the virus such as the Delta variant found in India, and now the most widely prevalent strain of virus in the UK, remain a serious problem. The unvaccinated population in the US is too large for any degree of safety in numbers vaccinated. Consider that at the press briefing given by the White House on June 3, 2021, only 28 states out of 51 states have fully vaccinated 50% or more of their population. There is a large variation between different states with states in the south such as Mississippi as low as 34% at least one dose and a similar situation in Alabama. In Arkansas, Georgia, Carolinas, and Louisiana  it is higher at about 50% with at least one dose. Even these figures are deceiving as in some parishes in Louisiana only 20% have even one dose. Studies show that only after the second dose are enough antibodies released to protect well against coronavirus. This is why vaccine experts at Baylor College of Medicine cited in NYT foresee a second wave in the southern US because of the South so underachieving in the case of vaccination.  ...

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This WSJ podcast looks at the Fedspeak, the language, the use of specific words that telegraph the US central bank's carefully thought out message to markets. Th topic is inflation. Is it persistent or transitory? Fed chairman Powell's word for it was "transitory." Then transitory" but longer than we thought, because our Fed models did not include supplychain bottlenecks.  In reality every new variant brings new lockdowns and slows the rise or reverses the increase in gas and fuel prices that are a main driver of inflation. Wage increases are a good thing after decades of lack of leverage of workers and economic distortions from this, this may be termed constructive inflation.  Supplychain bottlenecks are likely to ease and not be permanent so that the Fed could be right on that point. A less noticed aspect of the Fed's decision to raise interests without careful thought is that this will impact the ability of poor and moderate income countries to afford medicine and food as exchange rates make their currencies worth less. At the time of variants this is both a practical and a human consideration. What are called emerging markets in finspeak (financial language) are really countries that Stephanie Nolan is writing about on the frontlines of the pandemic in the NYT- South Africa, Zambia. Then there are other poor or moderate income countries- Brazil, Mexico, Russia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia. Today the Fed needs to think about them also. How much vaccine, medicines, or food imports can they afford with weakening currencies as the Fed raises interest rates? At the same time some accomodations for inflation are necessary, but carefully thought, with a lot of thought given to the current state of the world with new variants and weakened economies and no stimulus payments in large parts of the world to offset weakness. ...