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Arvind Panagriya, Prof. of Economics at Columbia University, points out the key initiatives of the Modi government in its first four years which will show results in future years for development of the country.  He mentions the Swachh Bharat Mission and cites results that show rural households with toilets are now 84% up from 38%.  By 2019 the whole country will be defecation zone free on the 100th anniversary of the birth of Mahatma Gandhi. The Dhan Jan Yojana DJY accounts opened for rural households are up to 316 million. Aadhar cards for identification are up from 650 million to 1.2 billion. The Aadhar and DJY work together to enable direct transfer of benefits to poor households, eliminating the leaks in benefits transfer and ghost accounts of the period since independence in 1947. Not mentioned by Panagriya is the Health Insurance scheme for lower income households that enable families to survive a sudden medical expense that could put them in dire straits.  These efforts work in a way to change India from the ground up from its villages and rural areas as envisioned by Mahatma Gandhi in the struggle for independence. The land acquisition law amendments were put on hold till farmers concerns could be better accomodated, an area of concern for industrial development cited in an editorial in the Hindu newspaper. Fiscal consolidation and inflation targeting have resulted in an average inflation rate of 4.3% for the 4 years of the Modi government. Inflation was over 9% in the last 2 years of the previous Congress UPA government with GDP growth dropping to 5.9% for the last two years. Average GDP growth for four years for the Modi government is 7.3%, even after the changes to implement GST taxation for one national tax eliminating state barriers in interstate commerce and demonetization to fight corruption and black money. Rate of GDP growth should be higher after the gains from the initiatives and the new GST integration of the country are felt, with increase in investment and FDI, after infrastructure improvements and land acquisition arrangements are made. Transportation infrastructure modernization initiative pushes ahead with the first bullet train in the pilot project for Ahmedabad- Mumbai set to start in 2022. This is a $17 billion project financed for $13 billion by the Japanese government at 0.1% loan for 50 years, moratorium on repayments for 20 years, using E5 Shinkansen series technology. Implementation of this project on a sound financial basis should lead to transformation of the Indian rail network, raising the level of technology implementation across the entire Indian rail system. Such an achievement would rival the first introduction of railways into India in the nineteenth century under the British. A new bankruptcy law is intended to free up capital for investment by putting behind the large number of non performing loans in the Indian banking system. Changes made by the central bank RBI are designed to speed up this process so that loss making enterprises are absorbed, consolidated or shut down, a legacy from the earlier period.     ...

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The Bank of England under Governor Carney cut interest rates 0.25% from a low of 0.5%, and suggested further cuts were on the way. This follows Brexit and action by the central bank to avoid a recession. The British pound fell about 1.6% to $1.3112 against the dollar, and euro 1.770 against the euro. Government borrowing costs declined, and the 10 year bonds yield dropped to 0.639%. Economic growth in Britian for the second half 2016 will be little or none. The GDP growth forecast for 2017 is now 0.8%, down from 2.3% before the Brexit vote. Bank of England staff say their calculations show Brexit vote has "conservatively" reduced growth by 2.5 percentage points over 3 years even after the rate cuts and stimulus action of the Bank of England, which other estimates show could add 0.5% over 2 years. This brings the Brexit impact to about 3% loss in GDP over 3 years, with these reliable estimates. Months after the Brexit vote the question remains whether Brexit supporters misled British voters, leaving the Bank of England to come up with a way to prevent a recession. After the austerity cuts since 2009 and the prospect of some improvement in the economy, this is a step backwards at a time when some of the working and middle class find themselves left behind. ...

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India is an attractive place for foreign investors with the country moving up 23 places in the ease of doing business rankings of the World Bank. Growth is faster than China since 2015, and GDP is expected to double to $5 trillion by 2030, according to government think tank NITI Aayog. Corporate deal making from foreign investors exceeds that in China. Mergers and acquisitions targeting Indian companies reaching a total of $93.7 billion in 2018, up 52% from last year, according to Dealogic. Overseas purchases were $39.5 billion for India in 2018 compared to $32.8 billion for China. In comparison to China where trade tensions are increasing, India under the Modi government has improved the ease of doing business- implementing a new bankruptcy code, easing foreign direct investment rules, introduced a nationwide goods and services tax to replace a hodge podge of taxes in different states. In the consumer sector Unilever NV made purchase of a malted drink brand Horlicks from GlaxoSmithKline PLC as part of a $3.75 billion deal. Softbank led a $1 billion investment in OYO Hotels. In infrastructure Tata Steel made a $8.3 billion acquisition of steelmaker Bhushan Steel. Reliance Jio's aggressive push in mobile with low prices is leaving the telecom industry ripe for mergers and consolidation- Bharti Infratel acquired Indus Towers for $6.5 billion. Closely held family companies are also selling out their controlling stakes. ...

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Total household debt in Thailand at $306 billion in the second quarter of 2014, or 80% of GDP, is twice what it was in 2010. A assistant governor of the central bank expects sharp decline in spending rates. Low water level in dams is likely to affect the agricultural economy. The slowdown in China is lowering Thai exports. The result is a sharply slowing economy with growth expected at 1.5% for 2014.

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Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, says Poland has achieved a remarkable transformation over 25 years with steady growth of 4% year after year. The bright spot is manufacturing. For emerging nations the average percentage of GDP from manufacturing exports is 22%. Poland is at 33 percent of GDP for manufacturing exports. Countries dependent on commodity exports such as Argentina, Brazil, Russia, lack this steady growth from a manufacturing base and are less likely to cross the line of $15,000 of GDP per person that qualifies for it to be called an "advanced economy" for the IMF. South Korea, the Czech Republic and Poland are some of the countries that have benefited from manufacturing exports. Poland's wages are one third of that in Germany and its currency is cheap, giving it an advantage as an export hub for German companies. Germany is the main destination for exports and the German automobile industry uses the Czech Republic and Poland as export hubs. Poland's and Czech Republic's geographical location near Germany with a highly educated population makes it attractive for German companies. Poland has gone from $2300 per capita GDP to about $13,000 in 25 years according to the IMF, and is likely to be the next country to make it to advanced economy status by 2020, says Sharma. It is important not to run up debt, to manage finances carefully, and to maintain steady growth not growth in spurts interrupted by declines, and have a manufacturing base, says Sharma.  ...

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Russia's GDP growth declined to 3.4% in 2012 from 4.3% in 2011. Exporters and Russian business are critical of the strict monetary policy followed by the central bank, the Bank of Russia. Inflation was at 6.7% in 2012 coming down from double digits in the prior decade. Central bank chief, Sergei Ignatyev, sees inflation coming down to 5% or even 4%, and says borrowing rates will come down as inflation declines, "maybe not immediately, but they will."

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The Labor Department reports that there is no U.S. productivity growth in the 4th quarter of 2014 over the prior year. U.S. productivity growth is about 1.3% for the period since 2009, showing a weak expansion. Job gains of 295,000 in February 2015 show an improving jobs picture, yet wage gains are tepid. This is partly due to slack in the labor market not reflected in the official unemployment rate of 5.5% for Feb. 2015, with a large number of part time workers who do not have full time work. The low productivity growth is another reason for low wage gains in this economic recovery. Economic growth is also weak with economists estimating GDP growth for the 1st quarter 2015 at 1.5% annualized. GDP growth is in the 2-2.5% growth range since 2009. Hourly wages are up less than 2% since 2009, with hourly wage growth in Feb. 2015 at 2% over the prior year. Weak business investment is part of the reason for the sluggish economic growth. Macroeconomic Advisors estimates the capital investment for equipment software and buildings is seeing growth of only 0.3% in the last decade, much lower than in the last forty years. With most of the gains from the internet technology advances already made there is less prospect of a sudden increase in productivity....

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With U.S. exports to China related to about 1% of U.S. GDP, and the direct foreign investment by China in the U.S. being less than 1% of all foreign investment in the U.S., the slowdown in China is likely to have a small effect on the U.S. economy, say experts. China's slowdown will help service industries in the U.S., internet companies, software and entertainment companies. Positive factors include slower growth in manufactured imports from China, low commodity prices including oil for an extended period of time, access to more Chinese investment in the U.S. with higher returns, and more talented students from China staying in the U.S.

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Efforts by the government of prime minister Erdogan to keep Turkey's interest rates at the same rate as inflation, with an effective real interest rate of zero. Erdogan strikes out at what he calls the "higher interest rate lobby." Erdogan's party fears a downturn in the Turkish economy could affect the government's referendum on a new constitution. The IMF sees a high credit growth to GDP ratio as a warning light for countries and Turkey is identified as one of the main countries facing this problem.

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The Russian economy says a World Bank report in June 2009 won't recover to precrisis levels till 2012. The growth in the first quarter of 2008 reached 8.7%. The drop in GDP in 2009 will be 7.9%. And World Bank chief economist for Russia, Zelkjo Bogetic, says that half a decade will be lost. This is even with the rise in oil prices and the worst of the crisis with the collapsing ruble now put behind Russia. What is keeping things looking grim is the drop in domestic demand, reduced global growth, tight credit, and declining infrastructure investment. The World Bank projects Russia will see increasing number of people slipping back into poverty. By the end of 2009 17.4% of the people in Russia, or about 26.4 million people, will be living in poverty.

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Mexico's President appointed Carstens as Central Bank chief replacing Ortiz, who had held a strict line against inflation bring in down to 4% even as Mexico's economic growth declined in 2009 with a 7% drop in GDP. Ortiz differed with President Calderon and saw his mandate as acting strctly to keep inflation under control. Now Calderon is emphasizing job creation and growth. He appointed Social Developmet Minister Cordero to the post of Finance Minister. Until now Mexican Presidents including predecessor Vicente Fox relied on technolcrats to run financial positions.

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China's GDP growth rate slowed to 7% in the 1st quarter of 2015, compared to 7.3% in the 4th quarter of 2014. China's Office of National Statistics reported industrial production growth at 5.65% year over year in March 2015, and fixed asset investment in the 1st quarter at 13.5%. The statistics agency reported unemployment at stable level of 5.1% for the 1st quarter 2015. Experts say the low unemployment is the one positive sign in the economy, easing pressures on economic policymakers to take action considering the high debt levels in the economy. As a result China can pursue selective monetary easing efforts and smaller, selective, better targeted stimulus.

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The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 7.7% in February 2013 from 7.9% in January, with 236,000 jobs added. IHS Global Insight's forecast of GDP growth is 1.5% for the first half of 2013 because of spending cuts and the increase in Social Security taxes in Jan 2013. Macroeconomic Advisors predicts the federal spending cuts will lead to loss of about 700,000 jobs, with most of this ocurring in the second and third quarters. As a result economists expect the unemployment rate to be at about 7.5% by the end of 2013. The job gains were broad based including manufacturing and business services, and 48,000 construction jobs were addd. At the same time the labor force participation rate declined to 63.5% reflecting some workers retiring and some discouraged workers dropping out of the job market.

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Half of the 17 percentage points of lower investment in Britain between 2016 and 2023 came from administrative barriers with EU and of Brexit. Britain had deindustrialized and hoped to get growth from so called "clever industries" such as finance, media, and higher education. The Tories party led by Johnson and then Sunak painted a rosy picture for Britain leaving the European Union and doing better without it by working with China and the US and connecting to global supply chains. They ignored the actual facts of the globalization cycle reversing itself leaving Britain exposed in the storm.The slump in investment from Brexit hit Britain hard, the Ukraine war meant higher prices for energy imports from Norway and the US. The result is that only about half percentage point of 2 percent cumulative GDP growth in Britain between 4th qtr 2019 and 4th qtr 2023 came from jobs growth compared to about 3.75% in the EU economies. Eurozone growth at 4% was twice that in UK, and the US with higher productivity and job growth was growing at four times that in UK and twice that in EU at 8% over this period. ...

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Sam Bowman, economist and editor of magazine Works in Progress, says one reason Britain is lagging behind other EU countries, is that it's insular political and media class are rarely serious about anything else except managing public opinion. They have lost sight of economic growth led by investment and productivity. Poland, Slovenia and South Korea may soon surpass Britain in GDP per capita. The productivity rate in Poland is expected to surpass British productivity, this report in The Times shows.

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Two months of lockdown will cost France 120 billion euros. 

France's Budget Minister says debt will reach 9% of gross economic output in 2020.

Throughout the financial crisis in the eurozone France was restricted to keep the deficit under 3 percent and public debt at 60% of GDP -with some flexibility but with warnings- under the Stability and Growth Pact of 1997 fiscal rules underpinning the European Monetary Union. Today the debt is at 115% of GDP up from 100% before the crisis. 

Now the deficit will be three times the 3% envisaged by SGP.

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Signs that the consumer credit boom in Turkey is reaching alarming proportions are evident from the surge in credit card use. Credit card debt has increased by 20% in 2011, after an increase of 23% in 2010. There are an estimated 3.7 million delinquent cardholders and 2.5 million cardholders who only make the monthly payments. The Turkish regulators are now requiring cardholders to payoff at least half of the balances before they can use ATM's for cash. Banks charge interest rates of about 29% and cardholders who are using credit cards for the first time -as more of the Turkish people are joining the middle class during the country's decade of high growth- do not understand the risks. Turkish banks, Garanti, Yapi Kredi, and Isbank, are in the list of top ten card issuers in Europe, according to Nilson Report. Card purchases average $3,500 per year, in a country with per capita income of $12,300. Turkish banks have pushed card use, with Garanti Bank's website giving users cash for frequent use of cards, and asking users to show the card even if they are buying an apple at the grocery store. The volume of personal consumer loans has doubled since 2009, because Turks use the consumer loans to pay off the high interest rate balances on credit card debt. Analysts at ING Group in London who follow Turkish banks say the delinquency rates will be above 9% in 2012. The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report of Sept. 2011 has identified the credit growth to GDP ratio as one of the key factors leading to an economic crisis. This was true for the U.S. before 2008, for Portugal and Ireland before the eurozone crisis. China's credit growth was up 29% in 2009 and Hong Kong's up 30% according to the IMF Report. Turkey and Vietnam also have high credit growth to GDP ratios according to the IMF. Turkey's high capital inflows can quickly reverse in a crisis increasing the risks facing the country....

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This BBC independent review into its economic coverage by Dilnot and Blastland covered by The Guardian, shows that economics has been badly presented and mostly misunderstood in the culture and the media, leading to errors in policy that hurt workers and families in Britain and the US. Tory spending cuts in Britain have led to a lost 400 billion pounds in growth since 2010, says The Guardian citing the TUC report. Britain's GDP would be 2 trillion pounds higher today if the pre-1979 growth rate was maintained, says TUC. This editorial says about the framing of the debt and spending in the culture and media- "It is an anti-democratic bias that shuts people out of discussion about their lives and their society."

 

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At the current rate of reducing the 10% current account deficit by the central bank, it will be the end of 2013 when it could be brought down to 6%. This may not be fast enough as Turkey could face an external shock if sentiment of foreign investors changes before that. As Turkey partly depends on foreign investors for short term funding of the deficit, this is critical for Turkey's economy. Only one quarter of capital inflows are in the form of long term direct investment. As the situation in the eurozone worsens in 2012-2013, Turkey is in serious danger of a sharp downturn in the economy after years of growth. The IMF has cited Turkey in the list of countries where the credit growth to GDP has increased to the level of a warning light indicator. Other countries cited by the IMF are China, Vietnam, S. Africa and Brazil.

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The Center for Economics and Business Research in London estimates GDP growth for the UK of 0.4% in 2012. According to Britain's Office of National Statistics the UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the third quarter.

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Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, says growth is expected to be "sluggish" with higher inflation. Inflation increased to 2.7% in October from 2.2% in Sept. 2012, with rising costs of university fees. The growth of 1% in the third quarter he described as a one time situation because of the Olympics in Britain. The strength of the pound relative to the euro and the GDP decline in the eurozone also hurt Britain's exports. Economsts at IHS Insight expect the Bank of England to keep the benchmark interest rate at current level of 0.5% for at least 2 more years and increase asset purchases by 50-79 billion pounds in Jan-March 2013. Some economists see the need for other approaches because of tight bank lending. King says the central bank committee retains faith in asset purchases as a policy instrument.

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecasts for GDP growth in Russia to 3.1% for 2012 and 3.3% for 2013. Moody's Investors Service warned that the Russian economy could contract 5% in the next 10-12 months and the ruble could depreciate by 30% if the eurozone crisis worsens.

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China's GDP growth of 8.7% for 2009 is based on private sector investment in housing and infrastructure spending through the stimulus funds. Now with a asset price bubble developing from excesssive lending in 2009 the government is trying to slow bank lending. Experts see a situation similiar to Japan, as an asset price developed there in the 1980's after rapid industrialization. Even though China will still be a developing country after this phase of growth. Property prices are going up by 20% a year in the major cities. And with it making housing unaffordable for most people except the top 20% of the people who comprise about 120 million. This raises issues of equitable growth for Beijing. Much of the rest of the country is being left behind when it comes to housing and in other areas like health care.

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The effort to shift China's economc growth away from the rampant overbuilding in housing and industrial capacity of the past to domestic consumption, and focus on meeting the demand for better medical care, quality of food, education and other quality of life products. China's leaders met at the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing in Dec. 2015 to work out ways to make this shift so that growth rate of 6.5% and other goals can be met. Plans include reducing industrial overcapacity, dealing with overinvestment and unused inventory in housing, reducing financial risks from high corporate debt to GDP ratio approaching 160% estimated by Standard and Poors Ratings Services. By comparison the U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 70%. A steep rise resulted from the huge China stimulus program of 2008-2009, when the ratio was 98% for China. Experts such as Derek Scissors of the American Enterprise Institute are pessimistic about the prospects of successfully implementing reforms, saying reducing industrial overcapacity was a goal of the new Jinping Li-Keqiang leadership in 2013, but not much progress has been made in 2 years....

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New studies from the University of Chicago and the Chinese University of Hong Kong show China's growth rate measured by real GDP to be overstated by 2 percentage points on average every year from 2008 to 2016. As a result the size of the economy may be overstated by 16% or more than $1.5 trillion. Industrial output and investment it says have been exaggerated.