LyrArc Article Gist
The US will sell 5 Virginia class nuclear submarines to Australia. Manufacturing will start in the US and be shifted to Australia with nuclear submarine visits to Perth in western Australia by 2027. The US will at some point augment its own nuclear submarine fleet where about 1.5 submarines are added each year. The new US fiscal 2024 defense budget will be $835 billion, higher than in 2023. Australia and Britain will acquire new technologies and the knowledge to maintain these submarines. This will help the US maintain its lead in undersea technologies over China. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain becomes the worst performer in the G-7 countries with growth in the 1st quarter of 2017 of only 0.2%. Germany at 0.6% and France at 0.4% surpass the UK. The decline in the British pound and higher prices is slowing the economy following Brexit vote.

LyrArc Article Gist
Gordon Brown, former prime minister of Britain from 2007 to 2010, chaired the April 2009 G-20 meeting that came up with ways to tackle the global financial crisis. Brown also led the way by recapitalizing British banks, a step the U.S. followed. He comments on the volatility in financial markets in August 2007 following the S&P credit downgrade of the U.S.. Brown gives an incomplete grade to the tasks the 2009 G-20 set out to accomplish. He points to three goals the G-20 had set in the middle of the financial crisis in April 2009. The first was to prevent a recession from becoming a depression. The other two were to establish a financial stability regime, and a compact for growth. These two became paper promises says Brown. Brown sees the best approach to prevent a lost decade is for U.S. and Europe trading their way out of a downturn as the Asian market absorbs more industrial goods from Europe and the U.S. This includes policies that would keep commodity prices low and ways of coping with currency shocks. Analysts have pointed to an export led recovery as one of the solutions the U.S. was hoping to achieve with a lower value of the dollar. This has had only limited success because of deep structural problems- high consumer indebtedness, bad debt at the banks, weak housing sector following the mortgage crisis, and a rising U.S. deficit- which will take some time to clear. Brown does not come to grips with these underlying imbalances built up during the boom years of the last decade, both in Britain and in the U.S., during which he was the finance minister of Britain....

LyrArc Article Gist
The concerns that China was going to overtake the US and become the largest economy is a misconception of how countries have developed through industry and technology. Britain and the other countries of Europe, Germany and France, went through rapid development in the 1930's and 1960's then at some point after saturation were relatively stagnant. China for the first time in 250 years of the Industrial revolution began to develop rapidly and urbanize in the 1990's. China is at that same point of saturation and it's economy moving to relative stagnation with 4% annual growth in 2026-2030 and 2-3% annual growth beyond to 2047. India is taking place of China as parts of India (large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra with population 500 million) can achieve 15-22% annual growth in 2026-2030. A quick idea of this can be seen here in the WSJ. China as a percentage of the global economy was 18.5% in 2021 and has since declined to 16.5% of the global economy in 2025. China was three fourth of the US economy when it peaked in 2021 and has since declined in 2025 to two thirds of the size of the US economy. As a percentage of the global economy China will go down to 12% over the next 5 years as India advances, and the population of US, Canada, Australia with their continental spaces continues to grow and with it GDP growth. This is validated from the Japanese experience of peaking at becoming 18% of the world economy by 1996 and then dropping by 2006 to about 11%, 2016 to 6% and 2025 to 4%. The combined effect is to reduce the size of China's economy as a percentage of the overall global economy at a point of time in the future 2030, 2040, 2050. Japan is a good example. There are other factors in play including technology and capital access as technology and capital shifts to other parts of the world where it can be better deployed and conditions are suited for rapid development as in India/Indonesia and in the US/Canada/Australia regions of 1.6 billion people and 450 million people from China (saturation overbuilding), the Middle East (wars and mismanagement). ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Dominic Raab Britain's Foreign Secretary reflects on the period when Boris Johnson was in hospital for close to 1 month when he took over running the government in Johnson's place. Raab took over when Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital with coronavirus on April 5, 2020. With Mr. Trump admitted to Walter Reed Hospital the situation in Washington D.C brings back memories of the difficult days in April in London.

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain's GCHQ takes on Russian disinformation on the vaccine in an offensive cyber-operation. One of the problems it faces is the social media platforms where information spreads quickly. As one looks at the emergence of social media as a form of communication in the last 5 years it is clear that it has significant drawbacks particularly in health field, as it has spread disinformation for efforts on other vaccines in Brazil and other countries.

LyrArc Article Gist
Christopher Eubanks of the US wins over Britain's No. 1 Cameron Norrie at Wimbledon. After some doubts about a tennis career during a period when he did not make it to the top 100 Eubanks wins the Mallorca Open, and wins a place in the quarter finals at Wimbledon after a 5 set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. He finds surprising help from the grass surface at Wimbledon that fits his game.

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain is a country which for various reasons is addicted to adjustable rate mortgages only 5% of the mortgages are fixed rate in Britain, and meantime the Bank of England is moving rates up now at 5.75%. And Britain has a retail mortgage market without mortgage secutization that has created capital pools that support the mortgage market in the USA. In fact the first 25 year mortgage was introduced in March 2007 by Nationwide, as HBOS and Abbey did not offer one. About 2 million mortgages will switch to adjustable rates in the next year, so Britain does face a looming housing crisis.

LyrArc Article Gist
This essay in the Economist warns that most of the public does not understand the dangers of the idea of no Brexit as a preferred option to a Brexit deal that gives too much to the EU. It says this is dangerous in terms of the harsh effects at the border with Ireland and on the economies of Ireland and Britain. It points out that the private view of the EU is very negative towards Brexit compared to the diplomatic comments, so that little should be taken for granted. The European Union and Britain would in the event of no deal on Brexit not follow agreed  terms such on as the 40 billion pounds exit bill, guarantee of EU citizens rights, averting of a hard border in Ireland. The unfriendly nature of such a no deal would lead to aggravating its effects, argues the Economist.  The Economist estimate is that about 4% of GDP would be lost over 5 years for Britain and Ireland. Supply chains would be disrupted. Depending on WTO rules alone is not sufficient as the EU has bilateral deals with many countries. The car industry is particularly vulnerable as it employs 800,000 people and exports 80% of output- it would lose EU certification and face 10% tariffs. EU has made clear that trade for chemicals, pharmaceuticals or cars depends on meeting its standards. These are only a few of the problems in trade as the list goes on and on. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Bernie Sanders presents the case for Medicare for All, healthcare for all legislation in the U.S. Congress introduced in September 2017. It has the support of 15 Senators. He says the current system is costly, wasteful and bureaucratic. It is time says Sanders for the U.S. to join the rest of the industrialized world, join Britain, France, Germany and other countries of Europe, Japan and Australia, Canada, with healthcare for all Americans. After all he says only 50 miles north of his electoral district in the Burlington, Vermont area is Canada, where the system of healthcare for all works better than in the U.S.  And the Canadians, Germans, French, and British do this spending less than half the U.S. does. In 2015 the U.S. spent $10,000 per person for healthcare, this means that it cost less than $5000 per person in these advanced countries and the way they do it can be studied and its best aspects adopted by the U.S.  He says this is because the U.S. healthcare system is designed to maintain profits for the medical-industrial complex. A major problem is the manner in which the issue is distorted by different sides on the issue of health care in the U.S., without a consensus being developed on what the common interest is in a civilized society. Mostly because the U.S. unlike other societies is still grappling with the issue of what values it embraces on healthcare being made available to all. Under this legislation the transition to healthcare for all would take place over 4 years. In the first year eligibility for Medicare would start at age 55 years, and children under 18 would be covered. In the second year the eligibility starts at 45 years, in the third year at 35 years, in the fourth all are covered.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Gerald Seib of the WSJ describes the huge wave of young supporters who helped Labor party leader Corbyn in Britain's 2017 general election. He cites an analysis by the Financial Times that shows young people backed Labor over the Conservatives by 51 points more than the national average. People over age 65 backed Conservatives by 32 points more than the national average. This points to a staggering age gap of 83 points, said the Financial Times. Young people failed to turn out in large numbers during the Brexit vote, and this was a large factor in the pro Brexit win. One exit poll shows turnout went up by 12% in 2017 compared to the 2015 parliamentary election. Only 26% of voters in a WSJ/NBC poll for ages 18-34 years say they approve of U.S. president Trump's performance, 64% disapprove. Seib says the movement of Corbyn is similar to the Bernie Sanders movement in the U.S. and has implications for a similar surge of support showing up in the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report calls for more vigilance on the part of intelligence agencies in Britain even when it comes to referendums and electoral processes, that the intelligence agencies themselves do not want to affect in any way. Only six lines of text could be obtained initially from M5 the UK intelligence service on its vigilance during the EU referendum. Intelligence agencies see this as something of a "hot potato." Staying away from this, though the 55 page Intelligence and Security Committee Report now says the agencies need to be involved to protect the democratic process.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Conservative Party under David Cameron won 330 seats in the British parliament, securing a majority in the 2015 general elections. The Labor party won 232 seats, losing 26 seats compared to the 2010 election. The Conservatives gained 24 seats. The Labor party lost very badly in Scotland, winning only 1 seat. The Scottish National Party won 56 of 59 seats in Scotland. Opinion polls underestimated the strength of the Conservatives whose campaign theme was jobs created under the Cameron administration. Austerity was a theme for the Scottish National Party and Labor, yet as Greg Ip reported in his column on the British economic recovery the Cameron administration adroitly managed this by relaxing deficit targets after 2012 forecasts on the deficit cutting could not be met with lower revenues. Labor was hit by the sense that the Tony Blair type liberal economics had failed to reverse the decline in real wages and jobs for working class people, and the Conservatives were taking on a tough situation with the deficit and the 2008-2009 recession that started under Labor. This hurt Labor in Scotland and in the rest of Britain. Labor leader Ed Balls lost his seat. The UK Independence Party fared badly winning only one seat and its leader Nigel Farage lost his seat. Prime minister Cameron promised a EU referendum for 2017 during the election, and he will now have to manage this issue as his party favors membership in the EU with some changes. The improvement in jobs was a strong point for the Conservatives, yet Britain faces wage stagnation with low productivity gains which will be a challenge for the new administration....

LyrArc Article Gist
The squeeze on consumers and consumer spending in Britain as wage growth cannot keep up with the consumer price index from 2007 to 2013. A widening gap between average wages and the consumer price index. Basic items such as potatoes, milk, butter, ham, eggs, apples, pork and other food items have gone up much faster in price compared to wages. From 2007 to 2013 basic food staples such as butter are up 99%, potatoes 148%, apples 56%, ham and eggs 50%, milk 31%, pork sausage 37%. Gasoline up 40%. The gap between average wages and the consumer price index has steadily increased since 2010 when Cameron and the Conservatives took office and the austerity measures were introduced to cut the deficit. Upto that time wages kept up with the consumer price index except for a period during the 2008 financial crisis, according to information from the UK Office of National Statistics. Government figures show wages up 1.1% for the 2nd quarter of 2013, much less than half the rate of inflation of 2.8% in July. The household saving ratio is forecast to drop from 7% in 2012 to 3.5% in 2013, and Britons are dipping into savings to pay for basics, according to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. The House of Commons library compiled data shows average hourly wages down by 5.5% in real terms in Britain since mid-2010. Weak consumer spending hurts economic recovery and hopes of cutting the deficit. In the Bank of England's minutes for the August meeting policy makers said consumption growth cannot occur without increase in household incomes. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Prime minister Theresa May's Conservative party needs the 10 seats of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland to have a slim 3 seat majority in Britain's 650 seat parliament. Yet many members of May's Conservatives oppose an agreement with the DUP which is seen as not similar in social views. The DUP is the party of Rev. Ian Paisley which was in conflict with the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein party in Northern Ireland for many years. Former Conservative prime minister John Major says an alliance with the DUP would be in violation of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland. Under that agreement the UK and Irish governments stated they would have "rigorous impartiality" towards all the different groups in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein sees a new Conservative government with DUP support as preventing the power sharing agreement with DUP that brought peace to Northern Ireland. Complicating this further is the vote on Brexit with 56% opposed and 44% in favor in Northern Ireland. And the DUP wants a "frictionless border," an open border with Ireland so that it would not affect the way of life Irish people have enjoyed since the peace agreement. So that even as talks are supposed to begin this week on Brexit with the EU, Brexit is looking more and more in doubt. Negative impact on Britain's economy through increased uncertainty and rising prices, and increased participation of young people opposed to Brexit in the parliamentary election leading to the vote for Labor party of about 40% of voters, also contributes to this sentiment. (gist in 264 words, about 955 words in original article) ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The changes taking place in Saudi Arabia under Prince Mohamad Bin Salman are the subject of this article from Prof. Mohsin Khan of Jindal Global University. Similar changes were initiated earlier under MBZ Mohamad Bin Zayad in the UAE which inspired the changes in Saudi Arabia. The effects are easy to see for Upward Mobility, Diversity, the economy, the relations with the EU and the US and other countries, the shift away from oil to renewables, women's participation in the workplace, and education in science and technology. During the last 50 years the wars in the Middle East have wasted resources in unimaginable ways, human and in trillions of dollars that could have improved the quality of life and ease of living of people. The result is that like Britain in the nineteenth century the US in the 21st shows no interest in Afghanistan or regions of South Asia which have scattered its resources. The shift now is to the seas and the region that covers the west coast of Africa through the Indian Ocean to the Pacific past Indonesia to Japan and the Hawaiian islands, the western coast of the US- called the Indo-Pacific. With the US, India, Australia, and Japan committed to freedom of navigation and international law in the region. It is all about investment, new supply chains, trade and growth, science and technology. And the UAE, Saudi now fit in within this larger framework, along with the European Union, and other countries in this region. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This view from the Editorial Board comes as Republicans in Congress geared up for a legislative victory decided to ignore the expert opinion of the Joint Committee on Taxation and polls showing a majority of Americans disapprove of the tax law. It says a "corrosive partisanship" that is affecting the nation has led to this decision. Not an informed consensus necessary to make real and lasting changes to the tax laws that increase growth without disrupting hard won gains in social cohesion after World War II.  Republicans pushed through a trillion and half dollars in tax cuts in the law that reduces the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, and cut taxes in 2019 by 51 times ($51,400) for the top 1% of incomes compared to ($1000) for middle class families earning less than $100,000 (Tax Policy Center). The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates it will add $1 trillion to the U.S. deficit as only $500 billion is expected in increase in government revenues over a decade from additional economic growth. This is supported by evidence from countries such as Britain that implemented this type of corporate tax cut without generating much economic growth, says Greg Ip in the Wall Street Journal. The "victory" then comes at a high cost says the Washington Post- in years to come programs to help the growing lower middle class and working class will be subject to cuts and taxes will have to rise to balance budgets.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
It is shocking to see the virtual lack of cultural or other people to people contacts between the two largest regions in Asia, and most populous regions in the world, India and China. There appears to be a near total lack of understanding on both sides at the university and government level of the importance of setting up these contacts, so that misperceptions do not exist on either side and better relations can be built using such contacts. Rana Mitter, a expert on Modern China at Oxford University, says in an interview in the Times of India, that India and the 1962 conflict occupy less attention in the Chinese mind because other issues such as the relations with the U.S., ASEAN and Japan, take up more space. Mitter says India should emphasize its pluralism, democracy, and peaceful engagement in its external relations.  Mitter puts less emphasis on the 50 day standoff between India and China on the border at Doklam, Bhutan region, when he responds to a question about the risks of a conflict. He points to a bigger problem that affects relations between the two countries- the lack of exchanges that bring Chinese students, faculty, and government personnel to India, the difficulty of obtaining visas. This lack of cultural exchanges between the two countries is a major issue, considering also that trade and business exchanges are taking place and growing during this lack of cultural exchanges.  As a result it appears that business and economic relations guide the China-India relationship today, with people in China's key ministries and government, in universities and local government, lacking an understanding of India. Mitter makes this clear that cultural exchanges need to be established. Even a search for China- India dialogue brings up little information with a location in Beijing but none in India. It is mind boggling that the relations between the two most populous regions in the world are based on a huge lack of contacts and exchanges that would improve perceptions and understanding.  Britain's effort offers a model to follow as Tsinghua University in Beijing, as part of China's C9, has set up cultural exchanges with British universities in the ongoing cultural exchanges between Britain and China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The CDU takes 32% of the vote in Saxony down from 39% in 2014, 5 points ahead of the AfD, and he SPD wins in Brandenburg with a 3 point lead over the AfD. The federal government in Berlin is run by a coalition of the CDU and the SPD. The east west divide in Germany clearly shows with the AfD doing well in the former Communist East Germany. People in the east feel that they are "second class citizens" and this plus the migration policy of chancellor Merkel that alienated many including its partner in Bavaria, has given an opening to the AfD that has exploited these divisions. The AfD now has an ultra right wing and both the mainstream parties the CDU of Merkel and the SPD of Willy Brandt campaigned against it. The AfD or Alternative for Germany Party is basically a creation of chancellor Merkel's open migration policy which has affected Europe and may have provided the small margin to the pro-Brexit parties in Britain in the first referendum. The CDU and the SPD now look set to seek new leadership to tackle the problems of infrastructure neglect, the impact of the migration policies in fragmenting politics, increasing inequality, and the policy towards Britain and other states in the EU. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Former German chancellor Angela Merkel and foreign minister Steinmeier are singled out for their policies that likely emboldened Russia into its invasion of Ukraine. The DW.com says Merkel's tenure now shows deep seated flaws in leadership with her policies with Russia having gone too far in the other direction and leaving Europe in a vulnerable position. Merkel saw herself as continuing old policies from the period of SPD chancellor Willy Brandt of engaging with Russia, then called the Soviet Union. Yet looking at it closely the policy of Brandt was to reach accomodation with the eastern half of Germany, called the GDR, not to weaken Germany's position. By distancing herself from the US Merkel was in sense out on her own. Consider says DW.com that in 2014 Germany imported 36% of its gas from Moscow, by 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine it was 55%. The SPD under Gerhard Schroeder and Steinmeier following Schroeder share responsibility with Merkel for this dependence.    A similar integration of the German economy with China's economy happened under the 4 term administration of Angela Merkel. This can be seen in the port of Hamburg. This may have similarly emboldened China in its relations with neighbors in the Indo-Pacific region and with Taiwan. German chancellor Scholz is by one report reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms- "Europe The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." This historical account of the relations of major European states in the 5 centuries before the present period shows the Balance of Power as critical to the liberty and freedom that Britain and Netherlands as well as other countries were able to keep. Sweden was attacked in 1700 with sign of weakness, Britain faced challenges from France in 1700 and in 1800, and allied with the Hapsburgs and German states to maintain its democracy and way of life. Merkel of CSU and Steinmeier of SPD may have failed to realize this when they ignored the history of Europe. The WSJ report on the miscalculations on the German and French side with Sarkozy, Hollande and Macron show that all these leaders failed to grasp that by leaving the issue unsettled of Ukraine's NATO admission they had created the situation that was bad for both Russia and for Ukraine, creating seeds for serious differences that could lead to future conflict and war. By not respecting and giving room to the lessons of history these leaders in Western Europe have created the conditions for the very opposite of what they intended to do.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
How European countries Germany, Poland, Britain, France, and Italy are increasing their defense forces and defense budgets to counter Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its military preparations is shown here in DW.com. Under chancellor Merz Germany plans to invest 5% of its GDP in defense for the first time and build Bundeswehr defense forces as the best in Europe. A key factor says DW.com was the speech of chancellor Scholz three days after the invasion of Ukraine, a speech that changed minds in Germany about the needs for defense in the 21st century. It is called the Zeitenwende or turning point speech on Feb 27, 2022.

LyrArc Article Gist
Prime minister Theresa May of Britain announces her plan to spend an additional 20 billion pounds a year on the National Health Service. Over five years the commitment is for an additional 70 billion pounds. By 2023 this will bring the UK to the point where it is spending the same proportion on health care as France. This also fulfills a promise made by the pro Brexit campaign. May says some of this would come from higher taxes, and 9 billion pounds that the UK contributes to the European Union each year would go to pay for the additional funds to the NHS. The 2017 British election with Labor winning 40% of the vote has affirmed the shift in public sentiment to greater commitment of funds for health and education. Poorer communities in Britain that were left behind tended to vote for Brexit, with a large gap widening between London and the rest of the country. Higher commitment to NHS is part of the shift in perception that the needs of health, education and underserved communities are the new priorities. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US Representative Katherine Tai sets out the policy of the Biden administration on trade with China. The policy is simply to keep Trump administration policy on tariffs in place and seek dialogue with China. This report in the WSJ explains what this means.  The Biden administration is preparing a long term policy to restore American leadership in the world in technology, trade and industry. This means as in semiconductors providing $52 billion to assist US firms to make semiconductors at home. The US will build a new supply chain that is resilient and brings more of the critical technologies in manufacturing back to the US. Where Mr. Trump was the initiator of a new policy on trade but lacked a long term vision Mr Biden is giving the Trump policies new vigor and shape and a long term vision of belief in America's role in the world. He is doing this by building on America's key strength - its people. The only way to do this is to invest massively after three decades of disinvestment under previous administrations. This comes in the shape of the $3.5 trillion plan for infrastructure and the Families and Workers Plan. Biden is also building stronger relationships with allies Australia, Britain, Japan, India, and Germany for trade, supply chain, and defense.   ...