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In his monthly television address called "Mann Ki Baat" prime minister Modi apologizes to Indians for the complete lockdown of the country. Modi said "for a a country the size of India we need strong measures. Nobody likes to take strong measures, but it is the only option, seeing other countries and learning that the disease must be dealt with at the beginning before it becomes incurable."  He cautioned that social distancing did not mean emotional or human distancing. Sympathy and cooperation are needed. He called frontline healthcare and sanitation workers "warriors" and "soldiers," and promised Rs 50 lakh (5 million) insurance for 20 lakh (2 million) such workers. He also commended the work of shopkeepers, drivers, bank workers and others to keep essential services running. Modi suggested now is time "to not go out, but to look within yourself. Try to know yourself." He gave examples of recovering doctors and workers, and of finding new hobbies. In coming time he said every Indian will try to break barriers for the country's development, once this crisis has passed. ...

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Black or illicit money in India is estimated to be $400 billion to $1 trillion, much of it in the domestic economy. About 30% of land transactions are in black money, and it is growing with 500 and 1000 rupee notes increasing in circulation by about 79% and 106% between 2011 and 2016, according to government sources. The Narendra Modi government has announced that 500 and 1000 rupee notes will no longer be accepted in transactions as of midnight. People have 50 days to exchange them at banks, and banks will keep records so that this money can be taken into account for taxes due. A senior official in the Department of Economic Affairs, Mr. Das, says-"You cannot have a shadow economy representing a substantial percentage of the real economy." Big banks will be closed on Nov. 9, and ATM's till Nov. 11, 2016. Mr. Modi, the prime minister said in a televised address: "In the last few years the specter of corruption and black money has grown." He cited "the challenges posed "by threat of terrorism, the challenge posed by corruption and black money." ...

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Keith Bradsher's NYT interview with Raghuram Rajan, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, comes when Rajan has come under criticism from the business sector and the small business support base of prime minister Modi's party. The criticism centers on the drop in oil prices since Nov. 2014, and Rajan's failure to drop interest rates at the Dec. 2, 2014 central bank meeting. Rajan says it was not clear whether oil prices would remain low for an extended period at the Dec. 2, 2014 meeting. Since then new inventory data, EIA estimates and OPEC policy guidance have confirmed low prices will remain for an extended period. Rajan lowered interest rates on Jan. 14, 2015, by one quarter of a percentage point. Under India's setup the central bank chief makes decisions on interest rates, compared to the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee at the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rajan says there is full understanding between the central bank and the Modi government economic team led by finance minister Arun Jaitley, Jayan Sinha, deputy minister of state for finance, and chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanium. Modi and Jaitley prefer to rely on the advice and policy direction of economic policymakers with long experience in the U.S. and international circles. Both Subramanium and Rajan bring this level of experience and expertise. Subramanium brings experience from his years at the GATT which preceded the WTO, the IMF, and the Peterson Institute of International Economics, and Rajan brings experience at the University of Chicago, and as chief economist of the IMF. Modi is a dilgent listener and policymaker giving careful attention to the best advice, making it unlikely that Rajan would be seen as a holdover from the administration of Manmohan Singh. Other criticism that the business sector has made of Rajan are as financial regulator in asking state banks to increase collateral required from large business firms for large bank loans. Rajan points out the need for business to bear the costs as well as the benefits of taking risks. Under previous governments the state banks allowed large firms to keep their holdings at companies even when the risk taking resulted in losses. Rajan has also not tried to reverse the sharp decline in the rupee, which hurts business firms which took on dollar denominated loans. Rajan has instead followed policy of building up the reserves by buying dollars. The reserves were depleted in 2013 by a policy of currency interventions to reverse that decline. Inflation in India reached 9.9% in Dec. 2013, with policy of the central bank under Rajan set to bring it down to 8% in 2014, and below 6% in 2015, so that India could get out of the trap of persistently high inflation with slow growth. This is critical for a new Indian success story. A goal set by Rajan in Oct. 2012 when he was appointed as central bank chief, was to increase foreign investment and encourage new business so that India was no longer dependent on large companies for growth. This is also critical for a new Indian success story, as the Modi administration and the central bank are both keenly aware. Just as Bernanke and now Yellen at the U.S. Fed face criticism for quantitative easing monetary policy, focus on the high long term unemployed, and not focussing on inflation- with their focus on the long term economic recovery in an environment of low inflation below 2% in the U.S.- India's Reserve Bank faces a different kind of criticism for careful and prudent policies to ensure long term growth....

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  The state of Kerala is on the southwest coastal region of India south of Goa, and had its first encounter with the Portuguese in the sixteenth century. It is also the state with one of the highest literacy rates in the country. It lagged in industrial development after independence with a large number of people migrating to other countries. Prime minister Modi inaugurates the first Kerala Vande Bharat high speed train between Thiruvananthapuram and Kasargod. He also inaugurates today the Kochi Water Metro with  electric boats covering 38 terminals over 10 islands. Kochi is the commercial capital of the state. Modi said: "Our government emphasizes cooperative federalism and considers the development of the states as the source of the country's development. If Kerala develops then India will develop faster." "Kerala is a state of aware and educated people. Hard work and humility of people here is part of their identity." ...

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Parmeswaran Iyer's unique background in water and sanitation at the World Bank led to his work as Secretary of Water and Sanitation in the Government of India. At that point he was chosen to head prime minister Modi's campaign for Clean India called Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. It was an effort to provide clean neighborhoods and tackle a problem that had eluded earlier efforts including Gandhiji- open defecation. Iyer was instrumental in making it work by having 90 million toilets built in India.

From that mission he was selected to head India's overall development plan as CEO, NITI Aayog. In a piece in the Times of India Feb 14, Iyer puts forward the  mulltipronged effort for development in India based on ensuring financial strength, controlling inflation, supporting microenterprises, housing, health and education efforts, and technology advancement through digitalization including 5G.

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China follows Japan in the proportion of its elderly population at a similar juncture in its development. A paper from Japan's Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry pointed out that the proportion of child and elderly populations in China as of 2020 was similar to Japan's in 1990. China reached that inflection point faster with fertility rate falling from 2.74 to 1.28 in a 4 decade period, while Japan's fell from 1.75 to 1.29. That paper also shows India's proportion of child and elderly population in 2020 was similar to China's in 1980 when its economic boom took off. The overconcentration of supply chain in China is now being addressed by business in US and Europe after the pandemic showed its weakness. Prime minister Modi says this overconcentration has hurt even and balanced development worldwide.

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Andhra Pradesh on India's southeast coastline with 25 parliament seats and Bihar in India's north and east with 40 parliament seats and long history of being part of the BJP led National Democratic Alliance are now key to a five year term for prime minister Modi in India. Modi's BJP party won 240 seats out of 543 in parliament.  Chandrababu Naidu of Telegu Desam Party won 135 seats in the state Assembly election in Andhra Pradesh (NDA), all but 18 seats. It wins 22 of 25 seats in India's parliament (NDA). It also shows the wide swings in Indian elections that no party is safe. Telgu Desam Party (NDA)  won on the platform of a double engine government at state and federal levels to create jobs and modernize its rural agricultural economy. In the last 2019 election the Opposition YSRCP party won almost all the seats in the state assembly and in 2024 lost almost all the seats. In 1995 Telegu Desam Party joined Atal Bihari Vajpayee's BJP to form a government and during elections that followed for Vajpayee's 5 year term (1999-2004) he was part of the NDA. He has served three terms as chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, two terms before Telengana was formed and one term after Telengana split off from Andhra Pradesh. Andhra Pradesh is centered around the Vizag region on India's south eastern coastline and the cities of Vijayawada and Guntur with a 1000 kilometer coastline on Bay of Bengal. ...

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In the meeting in the Oval Office Biden and Modi had this to say about India US relations. Modi called it a "transformative" decade. Mr. Biden called it a "new chapter" in ties, taking on tough challenges in coronavirus vaccines for the rest of Asia outside India and China, tackling climate change, and ensuring rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region.  Biden's view- "I think that the relationship between India and the US, two of the largest democracies in the world, is destined to be stronger, closer, tighter, and I think it can benefit the whole world." A look at the US under the Biden administration shows a US that is very different from that of the US in the period of presidents since Harry Truman when he met Jawaharlal Nehru at the White House in October 1949. Biden sees the US needing renewal of its infrastructure, reviving worker incomes and families, regaining its leadership of the free world, for its role and place in the world. Throughout the period 1949 to 2020 for 70 years India was never seen as a modernizing nation of 1.2 billion people. For most of this period it lacked the good governance and speedy implementation of modernization of economy that is essential for a truly good relationship. By releasing the potential of the younger generation in a country where people under 35 years form the major part of the population, with good governance and development agenda, the Indian prime minister has changed the entire dynamics of the India US relationship. This is happening in the way China had done in its relationship with the US after 2000 by modernizing the country. India is now the country with huge potential and the country the US sees as helping it build its own role and place in the world. The sheer size of India and its population with countries around it in the east such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam with shared values in south and southeast Asia bring together a population of close to 2 billion people much larger than China, to determine the direction of Asia.  This is the new chapter that president Biden has in mind, and it is also the "transformative decade" in the eyes of prime minister Modi as India finally puts behind it years of bad governance, and speeds up modernizing its economy.   ...

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The prospect of improved ties between India and China as president Xi Jinping meets prime minister Modi in an informal summit meeting. China sees India as an important trading partner as its trade relations with the U.S. deteriorate in a trade conflict and higher tariffs on China's exports to the U.S. Mr. Modi of India sees the need to maintain steady economic growth ahead of general elections in 2018 where a good economic record and performance would boost his chances for another term. 

Both India and China see the potential for a larger global role as the U.S. under president Trump seeks a smaller role than in the past. On issues such as climate change China has taken the lead and India is also an active participant in limiting carbon emissions.

 

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Gujarat's Tec-City near Ahmedabad was designed to act as a new business district for the state, under then chief minister and now prime minister Modi. The project is in its first phase.

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This interview with Indian Health Minister, Harsh Vardhan, by Amitabh Bachchan and Anant Goenka of the Indian Express covers a range of questions including India's low fatality rate for coronavirus of 1: 46, its vaccination programs for polio, malaria and other diseases long before the pandemic for a population of 1.3 billion people, respect for healthcare workers, and the distribution of the new vaccines under development in India. Vardhan says there are of the 100 vaccines being developed 30 are in India,and of the ones nearing approval 5 are in India.  India makes 60% of the world's vaccines and its distribution capacity for such a large population has been proven many times. During this coronavirus months of preparation are going into reaching the whole population including remote parts in the mountainous areas. Vardhan says the plan is to vaccinate about 30 crores or 300 million people by June-July 2021 out of a total population of 135 crores or 1.35 billion. The vaccination will start with health care workers, moving on to essential service personnel in the military, police and other occupations, and to vulnerable parts of the population based on age and health conditions. Vardhan who is also the chair of the executive board of the WHO as India's representative, says the prime minister is personally holding two 3 hour long meetings to monitor the preparations for the vaccine and its distribution. Vardhan lists the achievements of the Modi administration and the quality of leadership provided by the prime minister- 2100 testing labs, 97% of the country having a testing facility within 3 kms, testing 1-1.5 million people each day, 1 million testing kits produced daily, 2 million beds in India with oxygen support or in ICU, 13,000 quarantine centers. By personally visiting the vaccine development facilities in Ahmedabad, Pune and Hyderabad, the prime minister also directly supported and encouraged scientists and their efforts. ...

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US secretary of state Anthony Blinken meets Indian foreign minister Jaishankar, and prime minister Modi in New Delhi. India and the US are working together on how to make vaccine supplies accessible and affordable in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. To promote the vaccination drive in India the US announced an additional $25 million to the $200 million announced earlier, during Anthony Blinken's visit to New Delhi. Post pandemic economic recovery was also a subject of discussions. Blinken thanked Jaishankar for collaborative discussion on many points, including security in the Indo-Pacific region. He went on to say that "the US welcomes India's emergence as a leading global power." Blinken also said that the future in the 21st century will be written in the Indo-Pacific region.  Blinken thanked Jaishankar for the collaborative discussions on many topics, including trade and economy, and how to promote greater bilateral investments to deepen commercial ties. ...

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The 2018 state elections leave an inconclusive result says Soutik Biswas of the BBC.On one side an arrogant government and on the other side a older party from the Independence struggle that has not developed younger leaders and lacks a compelling narrative. Rajasthan has tended to give only 1 term to an incumbent government, and in Madhya Pradesh Congress party had 113 to BJP's 111, a very close vote, with the BJP facing anti-incumbency sentiment in an effort to win a fourth time in succession.  A lot depends on regional allies for the Congress says Biswas, and here it is not clear how well this will work. The Modi government faces discontent of farmers, and the loan waiver for farmers promise by Congress helped it with voters. In the general election much also depends on how well prime minister Narendra Modi keeps the narrative focused on development and retains the support of younger voters, and his personal popularity. This only leaves an embattled Republic between a government that has struggled to create jobs and modernize the country even with good intentions, and a older centrist party that has not cultivated new leaders from within its ranks and lacks a compelling narrative to take the country into the ranks of close to developed nations the way its neighbors South Korea, and China have rapidly developed. ...

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With a mere 1% of GDP invested in public healthcare India remains backward in its commitment to the welfare of the rural poor. Prime minister's Modi's plan is laudable says this BBC report, but the record of implementation is spotty at best at the state level for such plans. The new plan announced in the 2018 Indian Budget is for a health plan covering 500 million Indians with 5 lakh rupees coverage, something never tried before but with a cost of a mere $1.7 billion is something that the country woefully lacked or neglected to tackle.

This plan may be better implemented at the national level, and particularly where the reputation of the governing party and its plans for industrialization are at stake in the coming year's national elections. If accomplished and the Modi government is eager to take on these challenges it would be a significant step to balanced and overall development of the Indian economy.

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India's options to respond to a terrorist attack in Kashmir in are limited by winter weather and the global political situation. Saudi Arabia and China have moved closer to China in recent years. Saudi Prince Salman visited Islamabad, Pakistan, and New Delhi. Britain is distracted by Brexit, and the U.S. president is engaged in a struggle with Congress over a border wall with Mexico.

With no powers making efforts to de-escalate the situation India's prime minister Modi- who faces elections in coming months- has to craft a response that meets domestic pressures to respond with restraint.

 

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PM Narendra Modi addressed a World Bank organized "Making it Personal: How behavioural change can tackle climate change" conference. Modi called it part of democratising the battle against climate change. "Simple acts in daily lives are powerful, there will be a very positive impact on the environment. The people of India have done a lot in this matter in the last few years." "People driven efforts improved the sex ratio in many parts of India. It was the people who led a massive cleanliness drive. Be it rivers, beaches or roads, they are ensuring public places are free of litter. And it was the people who made the switch to LED bulbs a success. Nearly 370 million LED bulbs have been sold in India. This helps in avoiding 39 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions every year." The Mission Life Modi introduced with the Secretary General of the United Nations has achieved much in India- "The farmers of India ensured the coverage of nearly seven hundred thousand hectares of farmland by micro-irrigation. Fulfilling the mantra of 'Per Drop More Crop', this has saved a huge amount of water. Under Mission Life our efforts are spread across many domains such as: Making local bodies environment-friendly, saving water, saving energy, reducing waste, and e-waste, adopting healthy lifestyles, adoption of natural farming, promotion of millets." ...

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The Mission LIFE launched by pm Modi in Gujarat in 2021 has achieved significant results-

"Under Mission Life our efforts are spread across many domains such as: Making local bodies environment-friendly, saving water, saving energy, reducing waste, and e-waste, adopting healthy lifestyles, adoption of natural farming, promotion of millets." 

"These efforts will save over 22 billion units of energy, save nine trillion litres of water, reduce waste by 375 million tons, recycle almost one million tons of e-waste, and generate around 170 million dollars of additional cost saving by 2030," he said.

"Further, it will help us reduce the wastage of 15 billion tons of food," Mr. Modi said, noting that the global primary crop production in 2020, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, was about nine billion tons.

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This report in the Mint suggests that there is strong economic growth in India today yet more needs to be done to broaden the economic recovery to reach all segments of the population. Pent-up demand is leading to economic spending for higher income segments of the population, yet sales of two wheelers for the moderate and lower income segments as shown in graphs here have fallen badly.

The next step is for a broad based recovery as India expands its vaccination drive. There is no room for relaxation of the vaccination drive as prime minister Modi pointed out to lagging district heads in a national virtual meeting on the same day that he returned from COP26 Glasgow. So much has happened in 2021 with the surge in coronavirus in India in the middle of the year, and the economic rebound is in its early stages requiring vigilant and careful attention from industry and government in the months ahead through 2022.

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Indian Navy has expanded to 140 warships and technology modernization with domestically produced ships. About another half of that 140 will be added and produced inside India in the next few years. This effort to build the Indian Navy comes with the need to ensure freedom of the seas for open navigation. Much of the world's trade happens for raw materials and manufactured goods through the shipping lanes including the seas in the Indian Ocean and adjoining region. Indian Navy is showing the results of this effort as it protects the oceans in its region in 2024 in the interest of all nations. The US is supporting India's effort with flow of new technologies. The French are also supporting India's efforts and president Macron is in India this week. He will attend the Republic Day celebration as a special guest in New Delhi on Jan 26, after an unprecedented road show in an open SUV in Jaipur today with prime minister Modi.

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A heat wave over northern India with New Delhi recording temperatures never seen of over 50 degrees centigrade happens just as voters go to the polling places in May 2024. Results will be announced June 5 for parliament's 543 seats. Turnout is considered to be resilient in the face of the heat wave with only 20% of the voting seats having lower numbers of voters than 2019. The drop in voting was slight of 1.5 percentage points overall from 67.2% to 65.6%. The last phase starts June 1, and 485 seats have voting completed.This vote is all about development and delivery of infrastructure, jobs, and modernization, improving governance and rapidly developing the country held back for about six decades after independence during which Japan recovered from the war, and China rapidly modernized its economy, and India only setting the beginnings of recovery in the administration since 2014, with prime minister Modi setting the goal of a modernized country by 2047 or Vikshit Bharat. ...

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How will the rise of renewables solar, wind and hydropower, nuclear change the demand and supply of oil and gas by 2030? How will this affect producers such as Russia, Saudis/UAE, and the US? And how will it affect China and India and the US? This question is answered by the new IEA forecast model that shows the demand at 105 million barrels a day in 2030, and supply at 113 million barrels a day, showing that renewable will have increased by 2030 to produce an oversupply of oil and gas. After 2031 this gap will widen and grow so that oil and gas prices will drop. This will accelerate the growth of India and China. Indian prime minister Modi tells people in towns across the country that the government will help people to put solar panels on homes so that instead of paying an oil and gas bill the energy generated from solar and added to the grid will give them a check every month to add to income.

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Biden's record on taking America through the pandemic, and getting the largest vaccination program in history like that of prime minister Modi has been forgotten to some extent by the Nation and more by the media than the Nation. Decisions on supply chain concentration in China were made long before Biden for decades since Clinton and Bush, Obama and Trump, which caused the spurt of inflation and cost of living to 9% that has so disconcerted Americans on incomes below $100,000. Biden and Fed chairman Powell brought this down to 3% in 2023. Yet the cost of living in housing and transport has lingering effects that lead to people describing Biden's record in a disparaging way as this title suggest, when it has through investments of trillions in aging dilapidated  infrastructure and in renewable energy, chips, science given America a pathway to a bright vision for the future. It is left to Kamal Harris to communicate this vision and what it offers for America's future. ...

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The Indian economy grows at 6.3% in the third quarter of 2017. The demonetization, and new GST tax plan, had slowed the economic growth to 5.7% in the second quarter of 2017. Higher economic growth is important to generate the jobs needed as 10 million young people join the workforce each year. The Modi government responded to the slowdown by accelerating spending on infrastructure- a $100 billion spending plan on roads and highways, and $32 billion cash infusion for state run banks with the effort to clean up the bad loans in the banking system. 

Elections in prime minister Modi's home state of Gujarat are coming up and this will give some indication of voter sentiment in 2017. The Pew Research Survey in 2017 shows Modi's personal popularity is high and continues to bolster the government's prospects.

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Prime minister Modi of India lays the foundation for a bullet train between the cities of Ahmedabad and Bombay in September 2017. This is part of a bullet train deal with Japan. India has growing economic ties with Japan in many fields, including transportation and nuclear energy.