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After suffering a deep depression Greece's economy is in 2019 24% smaller than in 2007. It may not be till 2033 that Greece recovers to its precrisis level GDP, says Oxford Economics, a consulting firm. With the creditors of Greece maintaining a tight control and requiring high taxes and high budget surpluses of 3.5% of GDP excluding interest payments, there is very little financial leeway to reduce taxes as the newly elected government of Mr. Mitsotakis of the New Democracy party has stated. Greece spent 8 years till 2018 under an austerity regime set by the European Union overseen by the IMF with eurozone authorites in return for a financial bailout loan package. Spending cuts and tax increases of 40% of GDP led to drop in GDP of 25%. Greece had misrepresented its official spending numbers to eurozone authorites in the years leading upto the crisis, leading to a lack of sympathy from ordinary German taxpayers for the country's situation. Unlike Portugal which was able to increase exports and find ways to reduce the austerity regime with sympathy from Germany, Greece lags behind in foreign investment and is 72nd in the ease of doing business ranking of the World Bank.  Unemployment is falling very slowly and is at 18%. Greece has returned to bond markets with 10 year bond yields of 10%. Growth is stuck at 2%. Pension spending takes up most of the budget, with little left for investment, education and other needs. No parties talk about cutting pensions anymore as a grandparents pension supports many families. The high taxes have hurt the private sector with the most productive people emigrating to other countries in northern Europe and to other parts of the world. About 500,000 left from 2010 to 2017, most are college graduates, and 64% have postgraduate degrees, a survey shows. Most of them will never return as it  is difficult to live and plan a life on a Greek salary. During the financial crises affecting Latin American countries such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina for decades, the expression lost decade became common. Some like Argentina had repeat situations of lost decade before recovering. Even the U.S. suffered badly suffering close to a lost decade with faulty mortgages causing a crisis in 2009. Only Greece has proved that this can happen for nearly three decades. Greece's experience also sullied the euro currency's image, that was further damaged by the austerity policies across the eurozone's financially weaker countries. Lack of transparency and insider groups unable to take up the national interest and pursuing narrow interests left Greece in a bad position with little sympathy from stronger northern European countries such as Netherlands, Sweden, Germany. Today's political crisis for the centre right and centre left parties in Germany and other Northern European countries such as Scandinavia, Netherlands, also stems from this flawed entry of countries such as Greece into the eurozone with poorly managed finances. A combination of Tech creating low wage jobs, erosion of working class, failure of centrist parties free market policies to protect the working class, shift of jobs to low wage countries such as China, had already eroded the situation. The humanitarian response to what was both a economic and war related migration from North Africa  to Europe only worsened the image of these parties with working class people alienating them further. The eurozone countries and the European Union are only gradually recovering from these errors.     ...

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Seen as a rural urban divide, less educated and well educated and tech workers the situation in France looks similar to that in the US in the elections of 2016 and 2020. With business in the US and European Union shifting manufacturing to China and the governments neglecting rural areas, decline in standard of living for people on pensions that have not kept up with the cost of living, the situation in France as in the US is decades in the making. Bernie Sanders and Melenchon were appealing in different ways to younger people yearning for change and a system that would correct these changes.   Melenchon coming this close to less than one percentage point of Le Pen in the first round of French elections shows that a straight Macron Le Pen version of what has happened is an oversimplification, just as seeing the changes in America under president Biden vs Trump would be a simplification, as voters for Sanders who voted for Biden are changing the Biden agenda and setting America on a new path. A path to reshoring jobs that were sent to China, rebuilding American manufacturing, increasing workers wages and restoring workers leverage for higher wages, investing $2 trillion in child care, housing, supporting worker incomes and families, supporting older Americans on pensions. In the same way beneath the idea that nothing has happened after the yellow vest protests for cost of living, that has not only not gone away- but increased in the concern for cost of living in this election with the surging inflation - new developments are happening.  Even as Germany under Merkel appeared not be changing in 2020- 1 year after Merkel the situation will have changed completely to address social concerns that were ignored earlier and to invest in infrastructure in a big way. Behind this is a fundamental change that is taking place. Facing a challenge from totalitarian states the fabric of society in the free world, the US, Germany, France, other EU states, India, and nations in the free world will have to respond with changes that restore the fabric of society to what it was before this kind of fracturing, bringing all parts of society together to bring all the energies in place for rebuilding, investing in infrastructure, restoring local manufacturing and renewal. It requires a unified effort to be put in place to respond in the right way.     ...

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China's new prime minister Li Keqiang makes his first foreign trip with a trade delegation for talks with Indian representatives and business leaders, showing the importance he places on India. India offers China's companies access to large opportunties in infrastructure development, and China can benefit from India in the area of information technology and pharmaceuticals. Trade is envisioned as expanding from $70 billion in 2012 to $100 billion by 2015, and expanding rapidly as the two economies grow. Economic contacts also would provide an anchor for future relations as China faces difficulties in its relations with Japan, and S. E. Asian countries, and a U.S. wary of China's capabilities. This was pointed out in the joint statement. Li Keqiang also emphasized this in an editorial page article in India's daily newspaper, the Hindu, saying India and China have "to work hand in hand," to promote Asia as "an anchor for world peace." A peaceful India-China trade and economic relationship opens the way for investment and participation in development by China alongside Japan, Germany, France, UK and the U.S. in India, as the next major source for global economic growth. This also serves to defuse Asian tensions as both economies grow, and increased contacts between cities in India and China with the twining of cities program launched in the meetings. India can use China's capabilities in infrastructure development, the two countries share the need for information sharing on lowcost solutions in healthcare, in managing urbanization, and solutions for clean water in rural areas, and use of IT solutions in development, where much remains to be accomplished through cooperation. Some of these themes are the focus of Li Keqiang in his efforts for urbanization in China. ...

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The snap elections called by Macron after National Rally party of Marine Le Pen wins 32 percent of the vote to Macron En Marche at 15% in the EU elections. Marine Le Pen has put Jordan Bardella, 28 years, of St Dennis suburb in Paris as the candidate for prime minister if NR wins the National Assembly election. Macron earlier made Gabriel Attal, 35 years, the En Marche candidate. This is the youngest in a major country for prime minister. This report in WSJ shows how Macron by reducing diesel subsidies for farmers has alienated rural voters at a time when farmers are protesting difficult conditions. Macron also faced union opposition over pension age changes, and before his reelection protests from Yellow Vest protesters on cost of living issues. Macron has survived each challenge, the last in reelection by getting support of voters on the left and right choosing stability over changes that National Rally might bring. The snap election was also intended to take Le Pen and NR by surprise. This has created new uncertainty with elections on June 30, 2024, soon after Biden and Macron met in Normandy for D- Day anniversary, and the upcoming G7 meeting in Italy June 13-15. ...

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In talking about the systemic risks of the failure of GM, about 3 million jobs depend on the auto industry with 1,187,000 employed by dealerships of which 325,000 are employed in GM dealerships. Another concern is that GM's pension obligations are underfunded by $18 billion at the end of 2008 according to Deutsche Bank. This would be added to the $11 billion deficit at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. were GM to fail.

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UN sponsored talks taking place to let shipments of Ukraine grain to leave Black Sea ports. The way this would be done is by arranging a safe passage along a pathway that would be cleared of mines for ships to get from Black Sea ports to safer waters. This would still take weeks for the work needed to make this happen. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and other Middle Eastern countries are heavily dependent on Ukrainian grain and warehouses in Ukraine need to be cleared for the coming harvest. The head of the UN Antonio Gutierrez and president Widodo of Indonesia had talks earlier with Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky to arrange this safe passage for ships in the Black Sea from Ukraine. This would also reduce tensions between Ukraine and Russia and start the process for an end to the war.

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Temp workers comprise 35% of Japan's workforce and temp layoffs at automakers in Japan are creating social tensions.

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With the decline of its hardware business making iPhones Apple is looking at other fields. It is launching cheap online TV subscriptions in streaming wars in competition with Netflix and others. Apple is launching a new TV streaming service Apple TV+ in 100 countries for 4.99 British pounds a month undercutting Netflix's price of 5.99 pounds. The new service will be started November 1, 2019. Disney plans a streaming service for 7 pounds a month starting November 12. This service is alongside iPhone 11 launch and anew iPad, a new iWatch. Buy any new Apple device and you get a 1 year streaming service free.  Sales of iPhones fell 14% in the April to June 2019 quarter to 39 million units. Samsung's business is growing by 4% to 75 million units and Huawei by 16% to 58 million units. Apple sees the need to increases its services business with a target of $50 billion in 2020. Apple sees itself more as a media and cloud services company as it makes this change. In markets such as India Apple's growth is limited by its failure to lower prices on new iPhones. In China it faces strong competition from Huawei. The trade tensions are increasing the strength of Chinese brands in the Chinese market. The market in U.S. and Europe is saturated after years of expansion. New iPhone models are costly and bring peripheral advantages such as more and better cameras and features such as screens that are not breakable- for the iPhone 11- not dimensions that are critical for making a costly purchase. After years of growth tech companies such as Apple, Google, Alibaba, Amazon are reaching a point where incremental growth is not what it used to be and most of the rapid growth behind them. Trade tensions are also limiting the outlook in the Chinese market, and pricing remains a major factor in the Indian market. Western markets are saturated. There are fewer and fewer substantial new ideas from these tech companies. ...

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Better management of the economy has sustained Russian economic growth in past crises such as in 2008 when oil prices collapsed. Russian central bank chief Nabiullina has helped steer the economy holding US dollar reserves to just 11% the rest of $600 billion reserves in renminbi, euros and gold. Yet the war in Ukraine has introduced limits. With labor shortages and the technological isolation the war in Ukraine is setting new limits on economic growth, says the WSJ. Going forward the limit is about 0.9% economic growth a year. Before 2008 the Russian economy growth was at 7% growth a year, it dropped to 3.5% after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. With China facing deflationary trends, little recovery in growth, this shows that geopolitical tensions are changing the prospects of important economies. With globalization dimming the prospects of Singapore and UK have suffered. The US is investing in growth, and Germany is following the US model.

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Questions are being raised about the lack of fairness in the cuts imposed in Greece - and the IMF acknowledges this- where the minimum wage was cut by 22%, but the most highly paid civil servants had their salaries cut by 10%. Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schauble told the German daily newspaper Der Tagesspiegel: "I really feel for the people of Greece. The vast majority now hard-hit by reform and austerity measures... can do nothing about the backup in reforms, the loss of competitiveness and the unproductive use of funds in the past." In Greece there is a separate wage scale for the highly paid public sector employees such as doctors, diplomats, professors, and uniformed personnel in the military and police. This is different from what the ministry bureaucrats, hospital support staff and local government administrators get paid. This group took only a 10% cut, even though it makes up one third of the payroll according to IMF and EU estimates. The cuts to the minimum wage were made to improve Greece's competitiveness and because in Greece during the last decade wages went up much higher compared to Germany. Brian Carney pointed out in a Journal article Feb. 14, 2012, that nominal private sector labor costs went up by 62% in Greece from 2000-2008 compared to 15% in Germany. Showing the nature of the fight to make the cuts more equitable, is the resistance to the IMF-EU insistence on cuts to the highest pensions which amounted to $178 million. In the end prime minister Papademos said the monthly pension of $1975 was reduced by $32 or 1.6%. The lack of fairness creates more uncertainty about the cuts as elections are expected in April, only 7-8 weeks from now, and fears that this may not hold when a new government is elected. For this reason the IMF-EU officials are considering putting the $170 billion bailout money in an escrow account....

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Tensions continue between Nissan and Renault after the prosecution of Carlos Ghosn. Renault asks a Japanese investment bank to approach Nissan to setup a plan for a holding company. Nissan owns a smaller share of the shares in the alliance 15% stake even though it is the dominant partner, compared to 44% for Renault, and 15% for the French government.  This is the result of the original merger decades ago when Nissan was in a financial crisis. The imbalance in management control and shareholding structure is a major complaint of Japanese executives. Today nationalist sentiment in Japan, and Nissan executives see the arrangement giving Renault major management role as an affront to Japanese sentiment and underrating the contributions on the Japanese side of the alliance which is technically superior.

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Why the Straits of Hormuz are a critical path in the seas near Iran and Saudi Arabia through which much of the world's oil supplies flow. With the U.S. gaining oil sufficiency the straits of Hormuz oil supply lanes in the seas are critical to countries such as China, Japan and India which lack enough internal supplies of oil. Japan's prime minister mediated between the U.S. and Iran to keep the oil supplies lanes open and free of the conflicts and rivalry that have taken place in the region. After initially saying Iran was responsible for some tankers that caught fire, president Trump reversed himself saying that it was unintentional. The U.S. maintains oil sanctions on Iran but is careful not to worsen tensions further, and Iran suffering from the sanctions pursues a policy of trying to wait out the U.S. sanctions.

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The support of 10 Republican senators now makes it possible to pass a legislation that covers the basics of controlling use of assault weapons in the US. This includes raising the minimum age for use from 18 years to 21 years. Senators Cornyn of Texas and Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina are some of the Republican senators supporting this legislation. It also has the backing of Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky who is the Minority Republican Leader in the Senate. A broader ban on all assault weapons does not have much support from Republicans.  For years a spate of shooting each year in schools and other places would lead to cries of outrage from Democrats and sympathy from Republicans and yet nothing got done to control the use of assault weapons. Now a more prudent approach is taking the place of a call for a complete ban. Small incremental steps are now seen as OK. President Biden also sees this as the right approach to move in the right direction till more agreement or a breakthrough can be achieved. This is not just on gun control but also on a number of social issues. This may also reduce the tensions in American society that were exacerbated with no controls on behaviour of social media companies. Corrective incremental steps may create the right environment where useful dialogue and discussion absent today can be brought back for making larger decisions in the interest of the American people in the future.  ...

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The draft of the new constitution in Chile is rejected by voters in September 2022 with only 38% voting For and 62% Against, a much larger margin Against than previously expected. The new constitution was drafted by a Constitutional body specially elected for the purpose, As a result Chileans will have to go back and draft one that is more likely to pass. Unlike previous votes voting was mandatory for 15 million eligible voters. Clauses on environment, abortion, and the indigenous tribal people are seen as controversial as well as a tendency to put every conceivable right into the constitution and not thinking enough about how these rights may be secured, and focusing on basic rights. The protests were about the unequal access to healthcare, education, and services, weakness in the pension system, and lack of protections for the elderly and pensioners. Income inequality was also an issue in the protests. 

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The step that Osborne took to lay out Britain's Conservative party's plan to tackle Britain's awful deficit of $280 billion, and making this journey through the bleak landscape ahead is forbidding but enormously useful, says the Economist. Everyone shares the burden equally and the Conservatives will keep the 50% tax on higher incomes, raise the age for pensions, freeze public sector pay in 2011, take away middle class tax breaks.

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This editorial in the WSJ says Puerto Rico is a failed welfare state and has similiarities to the problem in Greece with a bloated public sector (25% of the workforce in the public sector). It points out that the benefits are generous even though the employment is shrinking by 14% since 2005, as 300,000 young people have left for the U.S. since 2005. Welfare benefits it points out are $1743 a month compared to $1159 for minimum wage work. Puerto Rico's Governor Alejandro Padilla says the $72 billion debt "is not payable." Debt is 100% of GNP. Three public pension funds and the Electric Power Authority face serious problems. To manage its finances Puerto Rico has taxed ever higher, increasing sales taxes to 11.5%. The editorial says Puerto Rico is ready for a Detroit style restructuring of the debt, and rewriting of labor and other contracts following the U.S. giving access to Chapter 9 bankruptcy to Puerto Rico, doing this with orderly restructuring.

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Under the current bankruptcy settlement plan of Judge Rhodes bondholders would get $1 for every $5 and pension cuts for ununiformed workers would be about 30%. A library clerk for example could see a pension cut of $400 in a $1400 pension. Retired Detroit firefighters and police would see smaller cuts of 10%. The Detroit bankruptcy is being closely watched as other cities an local governments are facing similiar problems. As part of the plan $1.5 billion would be spent on reducing blight and improvements in the city. About 40% of Detroit streetlights are broken and police response time is about 1 hour. One reader says the unions sent companies to low cost regions and stuck Detroit with the bill. After the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler the city shaw a sharp decline and many people left the city reducing its tax base and worsening urban blight. The events in Detroit are being watched around the country and had an impact in the vote at the VW plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, where former mayor Corker cited the situation in Detroit as an issue....

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Calpers, California's pension fund is setting down the conditions under which it will work with hedge funds, including separately managing its money, reduce hedge fund fees so that they cover operating expenses and are not a windfall for hedge fund managers. Calpers has only made 3.5% annual returns since 2002 far from the big returns promised by hedge fund managers. In 2005 just 13% of all public pension funds invested inhedge funds. By 2008, 40% invested in hedge funds, with acombined $78 billion invested in hedge funds.

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The controversy surrounding the statement by Trump following the hacking of the DNC emails and putting it out on the 1st day of the Democratic National Convention was covered widely. Trump said: "Russia, if you are listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. Let's see if that happens." This coupled with Trump statements that he would not assure the Baltic Republics and other parts of Eastern Europe  that the U.S. would come to their aid in the event of a Russian attack have created new tensions in Europe. This has also led to heavy criticism from U.S. military commanders, from NATO leaders, and from leaders in the Republican and Democratic parties including Speaker Ryan. Some called it "a seismic development," and unprecedented, with involvement of foreign powers in the U.S. elections generally resented by the American people, according to experts.

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Food, medicine, cash, pensions, delivered on a massive scale by India Post's 400,000 workers in the world's largest lockdown of 1.4 billion people. Indian Railways 1 million employees are active in delivering essential supplies and transporting food, essential cargo. With over 150,000 branches and reaching out into every corner of the country, India Post is the largest postal network in the world. The post office has started a special service to deliver medicine. As a bank India Post has over 500 million accounts, many of these accounts having direct payments deposited by the government. Postal workers wearing masks and rubber gloves and with multiple hand sanitizers are shown on Indian television helping citizens in inspirational video of India Post. India has another advantage in being able to get money to the tens of millions in each state, and directing it to areas of the economy that have the largest need- 60% of the banking system is state owned. During the first term the government of prime minister Modi launched an effort to get every Indian a bank account in every part of the country, so that money could be directly deposited in each account. A national ID system was implemented that took the digital information of each Indian. The government is now able to get money directly into these accounts. ...

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Continuity and stability mark the choices for the new cabinet in India of PM Modi. Retaining their Ministries are-Jaishankar at the Foreign Ministry, Nirmala Sitharaman at Finance Ministry , Amit Shah at Home Ministry, Rajnath Singh at Defense, Narendra Modi at Atomic Energy and Space Agency and the Personnel, Public Grievances Pensions Ministry, Also continuing are Nitin Gadkari at Roads, Transport and Highways, Piyush Goyal the Commerce Ministry. Prahlad Joshi formerly in parliamentary Affairs is now at the New and Renewable Energy Ministry plus the Consumer Affairs, Food public distribution ministry. Hardeep Singh Puri retains the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Sa Newcomers to Cabinet-Shivraj Singh Chouhan three term Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh in central India is the new Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Ministry a critical ministry in a still rural country. Ram Mohan Naidu (TDP &NDA Andhra Pradesh) is the new Aviation Minister Jyotirao Scindia was placed with the Telecom Ministry. Kishan Reddy was given the Coal and Mining Ministry. Lalan Singh close associate of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is the new Fisheries, Animal Husbandry, Dairying and of Panchayati Raj village local government. Sarbananda Sonowal is new Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways with the job of building modern shipping logistics for exports in the way China has done. Ram Vilas Paswan from Bihar at the Ministry of Food Processing. ...