LyrArc Article Gist
Ukraine was one of the poorest countries in the European Union in the last decade and was not growing as fast as other countries in Eastern Europe. One of the reasons it was looking to the west, the EU and the US, was to increase growth and boost incomes. A policy opposed by Russia.  This report in WSJ looks at the effort of a 41 year old economist Mr. Marchenko who heads the central bank. Ukraine's revenues only support 40% of government spending. Ukraine needs $3 billion in aid every month. The currency is down 20% in value and the GDP is expected to be 30% lower in 2022. He says every day and night it is a constant headache. The US and Britain were quick to help and provide steady aid. The EU and Germany with internal wrangling have not come up with $8 billion of the $9 billion in aid promised to Ukraine to rebuild the infrastructure that is being destroyed by Russia, and support the war effort to defend Ukraine. Even with $3 billion a month in aid Ukraine depends on printing money and risking further decline in the currency to pay soldiers, war needs, and meet basic spending needs. The plans are not just for 2022 but extend into 2023. Grain a key export is only now making its way out of Odessa with the UN and Turkey arranging the way out for grain ships. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan does not support Russian assets plan of the EU to use assets in Belgium $210 billion for Ukraine loans. A $71 billion shortfall in the Ukraine 2026 budget. EU's Leyen wants to use Russian assets in Belgium. Belgium is against the idea. Only Canada and UK support it.

LyrArc Article Gist
There is much uncertainty about the federal elections in Germany in 2025. Four years back in 2021 Olaf Scholz had 51% of people polled saying he would make a good chancellor. This is down to 26% in Feb 2025. Merz of CDU is at 32% and Habeck of Greens at 25%. The Greens are holding onto 14% similar to 2021 with the SPD Social Democrats of Scholz at a low of 18% down from 25% in 2021. CDU is at 32% compared to 24% in 2021. AFD moving from 11% in 2021 to 21%. The immigration issue and the weak economy with the Ukraine war has hit SPD hard. The Scholz coalition also failed to invest in the economy with the FDP of Finance Minister Lindner acting as a brake on needed investment in infrastructure. The result is that the German economy burdened with higher costs for energy and a faltering auto industry is showing zero growth. The most likely outcome is a CDU coalition with the Greens and the SPD with Merz as chancellor. There is athreshold for gettinginto parliament of 4%. At this time a breakaway faction of Left parties of Wagenknecht and the FDP are both polling below 4%. The AfD is at 21% and hoping to gain from the immigration issue. Much of the uncertaintly comes from 18% of voters not planning to vote, and the 13% of voters who have not made up their mind yet and will do so on election day. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Viktor Orban's defeat in the Hungarian election in April 2026 comes after decades of his blocking policies that emerged from the European Union in Brussels and is a relief for the European Union and Germany as it takes on the responsibility of leading continental Europe in its stance of opposition to Russia in the war in Ukraine with help of France and Britain. Peter Magyar who is staunchly pro European Union wins Hungary's 2026 election in a landslide with 137 seats to 57 with 77% of electorate voting as Viktor Orban concedes. Magyar's Tisza party gets 57% of the votes to 40% for Orban. Peter Magyar 45 years was part of the Orban Fidesz party before he formed his own party with dissatisfaction about the extent of corruption under Fidesz. Orban as head of the Fidesz was prime minister 1998-2002 then again in 2010 to 2026 for a period of 20 years spanning the first quarter of the 21st century. Magyar is not a progressive or so called liberal and shares many of the same views on social issues of Orban but he is pro-European Union and reflects the views of the Hungarian nation as independent in Eastern Europe and the Hungarian Revolution of 1956 in an uprising against Soviet rule. In the period before the two world wars from 1600 Hungary was the place where in addition to Austria and Vienna, the Hapsburgs and other European armies pushed back the Ottoman Empire's expansion into Europe. Hungary was a key part of the Hapsburg Empire which ruled from Vienna, Austria, over most of Eastern Europe for 1600-1918. The Hapsburg Empire collapsed in World War I on the side of the Germans and a new nation Hungary emerged by 1921 but was much smaller than Hungary of the Hapsburg era. Today Hungary is a nation of 10 million with its capital on the Budapest on the Danube river in the heart of Central Europe. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China sees a principal peacemaker role for Ukraine peace settlement with its economic benefits in US/EU trade as foreign policy. NYT's David Sanger reports from the G-7 meetings in Italy in June 2024. He says the G7 sentiment is changing about China in the last few months of 2024 compared to 2023. In 2023 China was seen as a nation that had more in common with the US than Russia considering historical differences between the two nations. As the US veered round to the view China's indirect economic support and its technology was helping Russia in escalating attacks on Kharkiv and the border regions of Ukraine, Europeans were skeptical. No longer, the Europeans now see China's relationship with Russia in the same way. Another change observed is that China is not pursuing a peace settlement participation to end the war by not joining a Swiss effort. Instead says Sanger China is seen as wanting to wait so that at some future date it would be the principal actor in bringing all parties to a peace settlement for Ukraine. With Ukraine facing escalating attacks in the Kharkiv region the mood has changed and China is now seen differently from just a year back. This as shown in the adjoining article in NYT on student exchange for US and China and China's view that racism exists towards Chinese students in the US is affecting the effort for closer understanding between the people's of the two nations sought by the two nations since 1972, and in the interwar period with Gen. Joe Stilwell fighting the Imperial Japanese Army alongside the Chinese people. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Chevron posts revenue of $247 billion in 2022 and profit of $35.5 billion. Profits are double that in 2021. High oil prices have increased profits for oil companies when households in the US and Britain are suffering the effects of inflation. President Biden has said the higher profits are "the windfall of war" when average American households are suffering the effects of higher energy prices. The Guardian has shown the increase in demand for food banks in Britain even from people working as nurses and teachers which has never happened in this way before with higher prices for energy and food following the war in Ukraine.

LyrArc Article Gist
Geert Wilders Freedom Party wins 37 seats in the 150 seat Dutch parliament. Dilan Isigloz leading Rutte's party gets 24 seats who also seeks control of immigration.  Netherlands is already seeing a surge in sentiment against high levels of immigration. About a quarter of all immigrants, 403,000 in 2022 up 150,000 from 2021, 103,000 are from Ukraine and 257,000 or 64% are from EU countries (Statistics Netherlands). Mark Rutte's coalition government collapsed when he sought curbs on immigration. A left alliance got 24 seats and Timmermans's EU party got 24 seats.

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT calls for Iran to end nuclear program Feb 19 2026, at first Board of Peace meeting in Washington DC. The need for a safer world without the nuclear proliferation to smaller states that increases risks of nuclear war, to North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. This also means that the US Russia's, China's and India's policy needs to shift to cooperation not just on arms limitation, but also in the area of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to smaller states. One idea needs to be dispelled the idea that a state gains from its disproportionate use of the country's income and resources to develop nuclear weapons as has happened in Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea, where this has resulted in impoverishment of the country. Another that retaining nuclear weapons would have put Ukraine at an advantage, that states are better off keeping nuclear weapons technologies and weapons for the survival of governments. The world is going through a difficult period- it took many centuries of hardship for China, India, (five centuries since 1500) and other countries to modernize and industrialize, and no one wants to see everything put at risk in the coming generations. Europe and America also have a lot at stake with the countries being poor for most of the period before the 1950's and industrialization. All the achievements of science and technology, all of modern life are at risk of disappearing with this one threat. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A massive missile attack on Ukraine on December 28, 2027. It is described by Ukraine as the biggest aerial barrage of the war so far. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The story of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city only 25 miles to the border. Santora and Hicks give this report on life in the city which faces constant missile and other attacks with much of its power and other infrastructure destroyed, and schools operating deep inside subway stations. Nothing like this destruction has been seen in European cities since 1945. Europe had only the Balkan conflict limited to Yugoslavia 1991-1995 as the country split into several states, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Slovenia and the US settlement in 1995 following NATO bombing in Serbian Bosnia. The Ukraine conflict stretches back decades starting in 2014 with the Maidan protests in Kiev and fall of the pro-Russian Yakunovych government. After a brief war and Russia taking Crimea it ended with the Minsk Agreement in 2015. Russia had supported separatists in Donbas region. Russian is the language in Russia and Ukraine and both countries share a common historical heritage. It started again with Putin's complaints about NATO enlargement in 2021, followed by an attack on Ukraine in 2021 bringing Finland and Sweden into joining NATO, and US support to Ukraine's defense.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT Zelensky meeting August 18 2025-symbolic black suit instead of olive shirt as Ukraine seeks peace with Russia, an atmosphere of hope for peace settlement replacing the atmosphere of war.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ukraine war Jan 2026- Kviv has only half of electricity needs after missile attacks. Winter temperatures drop to -19 C in Kviv as Kviv faces a winter without heat in the bitter cold.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ukraine leader Zelensky is expected to be in Washington to meet president Biden and to address the US Congress on December 21, 2022. A bill in Congress includes $44 billion for aid to Ukraine.

LyrArc Article Gist
The uneasy situation in Kharkiv, Ukraine, for residents in Jan 2023.

LyrArc Article Gist
Where EU gets LNG in 2024- Qatar 12% US 43% Russia 21% other 24%. EU's gas pipeline supplies increased in 2025 from Norway by 6% to 52.6%. Norway is also increasing its LNG supplies from Hammerfest. US under the Trade Agreement with EU US plans to send $750 billion in LNG exports to the EU. A Sustainability directive by EU for climate goals puts Qatar at risk of penalty of 2.43 billion euros according to DW.com. Qatar has said it may discontinue exports of LNG to EU in response and shift to Asian buyers. Since the Ukraine war and shift away from Russian gas pipeline supplies German economy Minister Habeck negotiated the deal with Qatar for LNG.

LyrArc Article Gist
The supplies of natural gas are making a huge improvement in 2023 over 2022 when the war with Ukraine led to the European Union scrambling to replace Russian supplies with LNG imports. The higher temperatures this past winter in the US and Europe have left ample supplies in storage with the unused natural gas adding to supply. The result prices are now half of what they were last summer bringing relief to people for higher energy prices. Summer prices for natural gas are expected to be about $2.84 per million BTU's.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russian shadow fleet and about 80% of Russian oil now sanctioned after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil- Feb 2026. This is putting more oil onto a fleeet of vessels operating under Comoros, Sierra Leone and third nation flags, or even two flags, which the Americans and Europeans are tracking and diverting. Russia seeks to put this oil on an alternative tanker fleet it owns and which is insured by Russia, that goes from the Baltic and Black seas to the Mediterranean to refineries in Turkey, India and China. What thsi does is increases risks for Russia in shipping and for the Euroepans and Americans when ships fly Russian flags with military convoy. The overall effect of cutting Russian oil exports in addition to India committing to buy American oil and Venezuelan oil instead of Russian oil in its trade agreement with US, is that Russian economy may be in risky territory. Inflation is higher than official 6 percent at 16% interest rates, and this increases the risk. Budget needs within Russia may not be met as this continues. It is in Russia's interest now to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, now that the US has moved away from NATO/Europe to peaceful cooperation with Russia and competition with China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Speaker Mike Johnson looks for ways to fund aid to Ukraine in April 2024.

LyrArc Article Gist
Addressing the European parliament president Zelensky of Ukraine says Ukraine is defending all of Europe and the Eruopean way of life. "We Ukrainians are together on the battlefield with you." To counter the Russian attacks Ukraine needs more assistance, Mr. Zelensky told the parliament. He called for action on the application to become a member of the EU by the end of 2023.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Ukraine frontlines in March 2024 after the deep fortifications and the trenches built on the Russian side that stalled any Ukraine advances. Ukraine is building its own trench fortifications as it expects a Russian spring offensive. Ukraine is dependent now on Britain and Germany, France, as the US House of Representatives controlled by Republicans under Speaker Mike Johnson have not taken up the Senate bill for aid to Ukraine that passed by 70 to 30 on a bipartisan basis. The result is uncertainty in Ukraine and in Eastern European nations. Sweden joined NATO and has conducted exercises with Finland which has the longest border of any nation with Russia.

LyrArc Article Gist
Japanese prime minister Kishida joins president Biden in deciding not to run again with low popularity ratings and cost of living concerns of the public. The LDP administration of prime minister Kishida put through a $100 billion investment package to revive the economy in November 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the Japanese economy GDP growth suffered from a 0.7% decline. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida of the LDP party popularity has remained at around 25% and Kishida has decided not to run again for prime minister. His term expires in 2025. A new LDP leader will be elected. This report says growing voices in the LDP party persuaded Kishida not to run and have a new leader. Inflation which was tame for over a decade has increased with surging prices for oil and gas after the Ukraine war. The situation is similar to the US and EU where rising prices have hurt ordinary people struggling to make a living. Kishida committed Japan to investing 2% of GDP on defense. The effects of economic developments is that the Japanese currency is weakening. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Former Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi (2012 -2022) and its senior official makes these comments at the Munich Security Conference on US shooting down Chinese spy balloons. Yi says it was "absurd and hysterical." He says China is going to put out a paper on Ukraine that would underline the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty. For China its crucial relations with Germany, trade with Europe are critical for its economy and growth. Germany's coalition government itself is divided on investment by China in the port of Hamburg, with the Greens not supporting that decision by chancellor Scholz. The issue for Biden is not simply the balloons. As The Guardian points out the US is pushing for China to withdraw or at least make conditional its support of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine that is a clear violation of the UN Charter that China says it supports. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The Russian central bank under Elvira Nabiullina raises interest rates by 3.5% to 12%. In the first 5 months of 2023 the Russian government spent 50% more in rubles than in the same period in 2022. The increase in spending meant increase in wages and more hiring for production of goods including production for the war effort. The policy was to carry on the war effort without the effects of the war being felt by ordinary Russian citizens. The result has been higher inflation at 7.6%. Nabiullina faces a unique set of challenges to control inflation, maintain the economy even as Russia continues the war effort in Ukraine. 

LyrArc Article Gist
India's Russian oil imports Indian OMC's (oil marketing companies) say Russian discount for oil was about $8.50 per barrel in FY24, and dropped to $3-5 in 2025 with at present in August 2025 it being $1. CLSA/Citic Securities research report uses an average of $4 per barrel to get the $2.5 billion gain for India per year in 2025. Note that Russian oil is of inferior quality and the CIF landing cost used by Indian companies is much higher because of long supply routes insurance costs compared to Saudi oil. India could shift to buying from Saudis and UAE in 2026, and reports suggest India is already making this shift as Jamnagar and other refineries in India shift to non Russian sources. India's gains from Russian oil imports estimated at $2.5 billion lower than the $10-25 billion figures says a CLSA/Citic Securities research report. In 2025 Indian oil imports are at present 36% or 1.8 million barrels a day from Russia of 5.4 mbd total oil imports. Saudis provide 14%, Iraq 20%, UAE 9%, USA 4%. One alternative for India would be to shift much of it's oil imports to the Saudis, UAE and US to shift to the situation before the Ukraine war and Russian discounts for it's large population.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Skies are full of drones over Ukraine as the war takes on a different appearance in July- August 2025.