LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation is outpacing wages in the US by 4% in July 2022. Consumers are cutting back on spending. The US Fed is looking at another 0.75 percentage point increase in the interest rate in July 2022.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve plans a quarter percentage point rate cut to tackle weaker global growth, trade uncertainty from tariffs wars, with muted inflation, according to indications from New York Fed President John Williams. Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, cut rates to the range of 2% and 2.25% current range in July 2019.

LyrArc Article Gist
US inflation in May was up 1% over April 2022, and 8.6% above a year earlier. Of the 1% increase in May over April about half was from increase in prices of appliances and furniture and consumer items bought from stores such as Walmart and Target. The trend is shifting quickly as buyers are shifting purchases out of this category and spending more on travel and eating out, entertainment. Retailers such as Target are stuck with excess inventory and plan to discount items. This will result in an easing of inflation.

Shortage of semiconductors for cars are persisting but should ease at some time. Service cost continue to increase. Overall there should be an easing of inflation but not enough for the Fed to change its policy of interest rate increases.

LyrArc Article Gist
The US Federal Reserve Bank's Jay Powell is getting help from shoppers resisting price increases by buying less, in his resolute fight to bring down inflation.

LyrArc Article Gist
DW.com provides this video about being poor and food in one of the richest countries. Inflation and higher food prices are affecting millions in Europe and the US.

LyrArc Article Gist
The aggressive effort of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates to dampen inflation will have an effect on Asian currencies and trade. The Japanese yen lost 14% of its value and the Korean won 8%, Chinese yuan 5% since the beginning of 2022. This is a result of the widening gap between interest rates in the US and Japan where the interest rates have not been increased due to mild inflation.  Asian trade is done in US dollars and exports to the US are invoiced in dollars. Citigroup says about three quarters of trade in Asia-Pacific is invoiced in dollars. Weaker currencies would translate into higher effective prices for imported commodities - energy and food. This pushes up domestic inflation and hurts manufacturing.   Add to this a shift in the US demand from goods into services in 2022 and there is weaker external demand for the economies of Asia. This will exacerbate the slowdown in Asian economies. Many countries such as South Korea and Thailand have increased their external borrowing in dollars. Debt service ratio was 21% in South Korea and 14.5% in Thailand, according to Bank for International Settlements. Years of low rates allowed governments in Asia to borrow more without incurring high interest bills. Now that situation is changing quickly and will result in difficulties for South Korea and Thailand says this report in WSJ. In the last 10 years Asian economies excluding China increased debt to GDP ratios by 15 percentage points, according to Gavekal. The result might not be debt crises as in Sri Lanka but painful slowdowns in economy with combination of loss in external demand from the US and higher inflation, higher interest bills. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US retail sales rebounded in January 2023 increasing by 3% after sales declines in the last 2 months of 2023. Shoppers spent more on vehicles, furniture, clothing and dining out. Employers added half a million jobs in January, according to the Labor Department. This shows a resilient US economy in the middle of high inflation and higher interest rates by the Fed to fight inflation.

LyrArc Article Gist
The ECB is set on a policy course of  much higher rate increases when the US Fed is tapering down its rate increases with declines in inflation. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The Fed's interest rate policies to fight inflation have increased the return on US assets vs overseas emerging market countries such as Brazil and India. US Treasurys now offer 2% return after inflation. This means investors shy away from emerging markets as the extra yield offered by emerging market country bonds is diminishing. This reduces inflow of investment into countries from Turkey to Brazil. Higher rates also increase the value of the dollar vs other currencies including that of China and India, Brazil, Mexico. This means it is costlier for other countries to buy goods priced in dollars (India, Mexico)  or service dollar denominated debts (Argentina or Turkey). Where countries had raised rates to fight inflation this means central banks have less room to cut rates to stimulate their economies. This also happens as China's growth of 5% in 2023 as it has high debt and little room for stimulus measures, reduces any growth in countries in Latin America or Africa that export commodities from copper and iron to other materials. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In this economy there is wide divergence in the US for upper income people earning well on assets they own at 5%+ for extra income and the lower middle classes wage earners that are struggling even with low unemployment and inflation at 3%. WSJ looks at these two divergent parts of the US economy and what can be done. Inflation could be worse with higher Trump tariffs on imports, says WSJ. The situation is a difficult one for families struggling even with higher incomes, as this one in Michigan in the WSJ, that finds it necessary to take money out of savings with prices higher but not reflected in inflation statistics of 3%. One example is higher housing and apartment rental costs with 25% of families having to spend over 50% of their income on home rental leaving little for food and expenses. President Biden has called for limiting price increases on home and apartment rentals to 5%, and Harris has proposed aid for families spending more than 30% of household income on housing costs. Strong action is needed. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A lot has been written about inflation in car pricing. This is true also of airlines and hotels this summer. Dawn Gilbertson in the WSJ says the 2023 travel rush continues, hotels and airlines have pricing power, and inflation is squeezing budgets. The solution is to have Plan B destinations, shorter trips, and plan airline reservations in advance looking at different alternatives based on airline and alternative destination choices. Average daily hotel rates have jumped to $180 this year in the US, up 10% since 2022 and 15% since 2019.

LyrArc Article Gist
A boost in supply in 2024 after the pandemic squeezed supply chains is likely to increase the US growth rate by summer to 4.9%. This is not expected to increase inflation which is down to 2.8% by November 2023, because of higher productivity and higher labor participation rate. The labor participation rate has reached a high of 83.5% not reached since 2001. The Fed sees this as a temporary jump in the growth rate that does not induce inflation so that no Fed action is necessary.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve policy in March 2015 changes to take out the phrase about being "patient" on future interest rate increases. At the same time Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen points to the 2% target rate for inflation and the stronger dollar making it harder to reach that target. The Fed will take a data driven approach looking at all the relevant information before making its decision, says Yellen.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jay Powell at US central bank the Fed says economy is strong and stable in March 2025. He points to low unemployment at 4% and other improvements including in lowering inflation that show the US economy in good shape, in his comments at Congressional hearings.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve is planning to hold interest rates steady for now at 1.75 -2%, but plan to increase rates by the end of the year. Inflation remains close to the target level of 2%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation in the European Union is being pushed up by higher profit margins of companies as they push up prices. Wage pay rise is only part of the problem, says Mr. Panetta, an executive board member of the ECB. Profit margins at public companies in the eurozone were pushed up from 7.2% in 2019 before the pandemic to 8.5% for the year through March 2023. A similar situation exists in the US. Companies could be increasing prices to make up for input price rises, anticipating future price inceases, or with market power to take advantage of  the situation, says Panetta. Panetta says his job on the 6 member executive board team of ECB is to look at all the causes of inflation. He has found sectors where even when input prices are decreasing profit margins and profit are increasing, a cause for concern. At a conference in Frankfurt last week Panetta pointed out that about half of the pressure for inflation came from wages, the other half from rising profits. In Europe wages rise is slower than in the US. It is also seen that market power of European companies was higher than in the US last year.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The efforts of president Biden with trillions of dollars of investment and the Fed's supporting measured fight against inflation, mean that the US economy is likely poised for growth in the year ahead.

LyrArc Article Gist
US unemployment rate was at about 3.7% for the third quarter 2022 and 263,000 jobs were added in November according to the Labor Department. Other estimates show that these numbers could be overstated by 500,000 for the year and likely to be revised. There is a shortage of labour after the pandemic and the labor participation rate is lower than before the pandemic. The Fed chairman Jay Powell discussed the strong labor market and his plan to attack inflation with rising housing, food, energy costs coupled with wage increases using Fed policy of raising interest rates. Rates could go up to 4.5% with another 0.75 % increase in December 2022.  Powell said in response to questions at the Brookings Institution last week that he was feeling his way through this inflation episode that was very different from previous bouts of inflation having started with supply chain issues that stemmed from the pandemic. It then became widespread with fears that it could get entrenched if a sharp stand is not taken by the Fed. Powell also says that he is acutely aware that he wanted to pause and see the effects of interest rate increases so that there is no overreaching that would hurt the lower income groups. He emphasized that lack of aggressive action by the Fed could let inflation go on for 4 or 5 years hurting these lower income groups the most because the wage increases would be more than wiped out by inflation. Finding the right balance is important to Powell as he looks to manage the risks on both sides of this issue- to hit inflation hard without hurting the lower income groups of society. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
"The economy is performing well, and the near term prospects are good" says Mark Zandi of Moody's, in his speech on the US economic outlook at an event of the National Economists Club. He is optimistic about the economy and sees moderating inflation and higher consumer confidence. Investments in the CHIPS act and the Inflation Reduction Act in science, in chip manufacturing, in renewable energy manufacturing, other investments in infrastructure, he sees as building a stronger economy with job creation and improved potential for growth. Oil prices could pose a risk. Increased supplies of US oil, and stable production by the Saudis are needed for stable oil prices after recent turmoil in the Middle East.

LyrArc Article Gist
Senator Chuck Schumer in the US Congress after the passage of the US Debt Ceiling Agreement on June 1, 2023. It is a historic day when president Biden helped preserve most of what has been accomplished by the Inflation Reduction Act and other spending programs for US workers and families, for US infrastructure, and world leadership in science and technology.

LyrArc Article Gist
The European Central Bank follows the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates. The ECB raised rates by half a percentage point. The Fed earlier raised rates by three quarters of a percentage point. The effort is to tackle inflation before it takes root in US and Europe.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lula and Milei clash at Mercosur. Lula of Brazil talks about a humanitarian crisis in US policy to pressure Venezuela's military installed government but fails to say that a third of Venezuela's population, about 10 million people have left the country as refugees to neighboring countries including Colombia and the US. Inflation at over 100% and mismanagement of the economy have destroyed a once relatively affluent oil producing country in Latin America. Hyperinflation in 2018, and 270% inflation in 2025, and lack of open free elections, lack of food and medicine. A story of socialist ideas that have led to military involvement in politics followed by economic disaster in the western hemisphere, in a country that had a educated middle class and a thriving oil industry. Not since the Spanish opening up Latin America to immigration from Europe by 1600 has the continent of Latin America seen such a mass migration which is not reflected in many media outlets including the NYT, Washington Post and BBC, Guardian. The blockade by the US of oil into and out of Venezuela is affecting Cuba and other countries which depend on this oil. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Federal Reserve inflation policy changes August 2025 to get a handle on everyday costs people face not the statistics the Fed uses which shows 2%-3% when housing, childcare, groceries, automobiles and repair, heating bills are on the rise. On a rise to the point where average households are barely able to make ends meet and raising a family is so difficult in the US in these conditions.

LyrArc Article Gist
Men all in their 20's and at different points in their careers, from all parts of the US are interviewed by the WSJ 6 months into the DJT administration to see what they think of performance so far.

Young men as a demographic group are optimistic about the economy even with high interest rates restricting housing access. Young men supported DJT in 2024 by 15 percentage points 57% to 42% giving the president an edge. Overall on foreign affairs messy international disputes, on immigration and hurdles in resolving returning migrants to home countries, they are considerate about what difficulties the president faces. They are optimistic about president DJT and his ability to handle tariffs, inflation, and the economic growth that will improve their lives in the coming years.