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The U.S. makes its first interest rate cut since 2008. The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on July 30 2019. For seven years after the financial crisis of 2009 the U.S. central bank cut rates to generate business investment confidence and initially to prevent a deep crash in stock markets. In making this cut the U.S. is now a follower of the European central bank which is cutting rates to stimulate the economy. The U.S. does not want to see too much divergence with European interest rates which are showing negative yields and the U.S. at about 2.25% putting the U.S. with a disadvantage in trade from a stronger currency that results from higher rates. That crisis was a result of poor lending by banks in an irrational search for profits that never materialized. It ended up hurting the savings of ordinary Americans who earned close to zero on savings accounts. A similar pattern was seen in Britain and the European Union, resulting in a loss of confidence of working class voters in the established political parties and the emergence of Trump in the U.S., UKIP in Britain, AfD in Germany and the National Front in France.  ...

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Samuelson points to the risks to the American economic growth from excessive health care costs. This is hurting take home pay and shows up in consumer spending. It is hurting government spending in other areas such as needed infrastructure spending and efforts to reduce the deficit. This hurts private capital investment to create jobs because of lower demand from constricted consumer spending. The U.S. budget has as its largest single expense 27% on health care compared to 20% on defense the next largest expense, with growth in health care spending taking this to one third of the budget in coming years. Without addressing health care, says Samuelson, the Supercommitte in Congress even if successful at deficit reduction will basically have failed to do its job, and it did not have the time, resources or conviction to do this. According to a new study from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), U.S. healthcare spending per person is $7,960 per person in 2009. This compares with Norway $5,352, Britain $3,487, France $3, 978, an OECD average of $3,233. Life expectancy in the U.S. is 78.2 years, compared to Japan 83 years, OECD average of 79.5 years. Chile and the Czech Republic have life expectancy equal to the U.S. Except for cancer care where the five year survival rate is 89.3% in the U.S. and the OECD average is 83.5%, the U.S. lags far behind in much needed critical areas such as diabetes and asthma. Rates of emergency hospitalization for asthma are 3 times that in France and 6 times that in Germany and Italy. The U.S. has fewer doctors per thousand population and higher cost per medical procedure- with more frequent use of the costliest procedures- creating a supply shortage that induces higher prices, and less preventive and early action care through physician visits. The number of practicing U.S. doctors is 2.4 per thousand population in the U.S. compared to 3.1 per thousand for the OECD average; and number of annual doctor consultations 3.9 per capita in the U.S. versus 6.5 for the OECD average. Appendectomy cost $7,962 in the U.S., $5,004 in Canada and $2,943 in Germany. Coronary angioplasty cost $14,378 in the U.S., compared to $9,296 in Sweden, and $7,027 in France. Knee replacement cost $14,946 in the U.S., $12,424 in France, and $9,910 in Canada. Knee replacements, angioplasties and MRI exams are twice as common in the U.S. compared to the OECD countries. ...

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The European Union governments are finding it increasingly difficult to salvage the Iran nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions. European governments rejected Iran's 60 day ultimatum to help circumvent U.S. Trump administration sanctions. The U.S. sanctions have already led to Iran's oil export to drop from 2.5 million barrels a day to 1 million. Lost shipments have cost Iran $10 billion hurting its economy. Initially European nations France and Germany hoped to keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by working with Iran, but this has become increasingly difficult with the Trump administration increasing sanctions including limiting access to U.S. markets for nations that do not cooperate with U.S. policy. The U.S. pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and now it looks like the Europeans are faced with a difficult choice in continuing to work with Iran.

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Household debt levels declined in the U.S. to 108% in 2014 for ratio of total debt to disposable income, returning to levels in 2003, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. The level reached a high of 130% for the U.S. in 2007. The reached a level exceeding 150% in Canada for 2014, which combined with decline in oil revenues with lower oil prices puts additional stress on the Canadian economy. In Japan the level has declined to 125% in 2014. France is close to the U.S. level, up significantly since 2003. Germany's ratio declined significantly to about 90% in 2014. In the U.S. consumer credit levels were up 2.3% in the 3rd quarter as credit for consumer purchases such as autos and appliances increased. Credit for home mortgages increased only slightly by 0.1%, as demand for new homes remained sluggish and banks imposed stricter standards following the mortgage crisis. U.S. households continued to pay down mortgage and credit card debt.

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Dirk Kurbjuweit of Spiegel says Merkel needs to show strong leadership to overcome the challenges with the rise of right wing populists in the U.S., Britain and France. He points to the leadership shown in the latter part of Kohl's term in office to promote German reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The challenges include talking to the German people directly in a convincing way, and meeting the day to day challenges of life for the people with investments in education, health care, infrastructure so that people see real significant improvement. It is even necessary to reorder priorities such as the shift from nuclear energy so that this challenge is met. It is not enough to hope that more Christian Democrats turn out to vote than Social Democrats, that the fifth of Germans who feel the economy is not working for them and feel threatened by immigration see real changes being made to address their concerns.

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Moderna, J&J, Pfizer in the U.S., Sanofi in France, AstraZeneca in Britain, have accelerated their efforts to have a vaccine ready by the fall.  Moderna and Pfizer use new technologies. Astra Zeneca is working with Oxford University on a vaccine that builds on existing technologies. Both AstraZeneca and Sanofi are building capacity to make hundreds of millions of doses of the vaccine. 

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The critical variable in knowing whether lockdowns of cities and countries are working is called the coronavirus RO, or reproduction ratio. This ratio measures the average number of people infected by a carrier A. It could be that he infects 1 person at work and transport call it B people , or in large gatherings call it C people he infects 2 persons, or in other surroundings such as restaurants he infects 1 person call it D people. The people A has infected B+C+D are the ones now not infected by A with the lockdowns such as in New York, Italy, Germany, UK and France. It is determined by global health experts that the number of B+C+D is about an average of 4 persons infected by 1 person A with coronavirus, though it may be much higher in practice in some areas. The natural rate of RO or reproduction ratio is considered by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to be 3.86 or about 4, if no lockdown or social distancing or other prevention is practiced. This in a situation where people behaved as before unaware that the virus was around them. Governments such as New York and France, UK, Germany are including this key variable in their determination of how long a lockdown lasts, and for determining if the reopening is not going the right way or failing. In such situations the lockdown would be reinstated, or if it is a phased reopening such as in the U.S. and other countries go back to the previous phase. In Italy and Germany the RO reproduction ratio for coronavirus is estimated by official experts at 0.8. Germany's RO estimated by the Robert Koch Institute and Italy's by Franco Locatelli, scientific advisor to the government. In New York the margin is thin- with RO of 0.9, estimate from the state's governor. In France which has one of the tightest lockdowns of all with a document required to go outside it is at 0.6, the figure coming from the prime minister Mr. Philippe. In the UK it is below 1.0 but no accurate figure is reported. As Dr. Birx- leading the coordinated response in the U.S. - emphasizes over and over again this is a very contagious virus, about which not much is known. Social distancing, wearing masks, basic prevention measures such as frequent handwashing, and not gathering in large numbers of people, is essential for defeating this virus. This has to be followed up with extensive testing and contact tracing to win this fight.   ...

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Ukraine visits by US Secretary of Army, Dan Driscoll, chief of staff Army  Randy Georgeand Chief US Army Europe, Chris Donahue, November 19. 2025. In the middle of a period of escalating drone attacks over Ukraine, and Ukraine strikes of refinery targets in Russia. Russian terms have not changed and call for Ukraine ceding territory and cutting its army. The EU and Germany, and Republicans in Congress are likely to oppose any capitulation by Ukraine after Russia launched the invasion, with Britain and France supporting Germany led by chancellor Merz.

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A joint statement at the G-20 meetings in South Africa on November 20 signed by the leaders of Canada, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Germany and Norway, and the European Union expresses concern about the 28 Point Plan put forward by US and Russian negotiators. It also says that it includes important elements that will be essential for aj ust and lasting peace. US president has set Nov 27 as a date for Ukraine to come to an agreement. 

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Russian view at SCO Summit-"A fair balance in the security sphere" meaning a fair settlement on the expansion of NATO and EU that may threaten Russia, something Northern Europeans have not settled.  Le Monde covers this side of the Summit at Tianjin, a coastal city near Beijing in northeastern China. Over long periods of European history since 1600 Northern Europe including UK, Sweden, Denmark, France, Poland and Germany have contended with Russia and seen purely from this perspective Russia sees itself as a Northern European power and seeks to protect it's interests. Britain, Sweden and France have for the most part been on the opposite side since 1600. US under a Republican administration, and this is not just DJT, sees the larger interests beyond Europe of Asia and the American continent in addition to Europe, and seeks a diplomatic way out of the war in Europe.

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A country smaller than the US state of Connecticut will host the first World Cup Soccer games in the Arab world from November 21 to December 18. England will play US , the day after Thanksgiving.

Group A  Netherlands with Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal

Group B   England with Iran, US, Wales or Scotland/Ukraine

Group C.  Argentina with Saudi, Mexico, Poland

Group D   France with Peru, Australia/United Arab Emirates, Denmark, Tunisia

Group E  Spain, Germany, Japan with Costa Rica or New Zealand

Group F  Belgium with Canada, Morocco, Croatia

Group G.  Brazil with Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon

Group H   Portugal with Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea 

Defending champion France has it better in its group. 

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This Editorial in Le Monde says the French president faced a contradictory challenge he did not quite resolve and which gets worse in his second term. He has called for dissolution of the National Assembly as a result. That challenge was to reduce he far right vote but he had done little to implement a policy that would remove the causes of people supporting the far right. It is not only immigration. Immigration has also been tackled across Europe by agreement across all parties to keep out migrants. The lingering issues of worker discontent stem from struggles to make a living during cost of living crisis, and this is true across Europe and also in the US, even in India in the last elections. The other issue is loss of manufacturing that has led to deindustrialization and affected standards of living across Europe and the US. Small and midsized towns in France and in Europe have suffered from the stress of loss of manufacturing and public services without the local revenues to build better living spaces and communities. The policy to reverse this has started in the US, and requires more investment across Europe in infrastructure and public services, timely delivery, so that people across France and Europe can see the results in their daily lives. This then is the challenge for France, and for Germany, and for Europe. It is also the challenge in the US and in India. ...

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Joe Nocera joins Simon Johnson and other experts in saying that Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo's suggestion to raise capital requirements of U.S. banks to 14% makes sense. He quotes Anat Admati, a fiance professor at Stanford Business School, who says the only way to get rid of bailouts is to raise capital requiremets to an adequate level. The Wall Street Journal editorial on June 16, 2011, also supports the higher Tarullo capital requirements. Why is it that European banks and the Basel III accords provide a 7% capital reserve requirement phased in over many years- to as far out as 2019- if this is the case? The European banks are in much worse shape than the U.S. banks especially with Irish, Greek and other debt on their books and Basel III is designed to accomodate this. The governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, is also advocating higher capital reserve requirements than Basel III, including the flexibility for countries like Britain and Sweden to set their own capital reserve requirements based on their own situation and the need to protect taxpayers. The U.S. stands to gain a lot from setting its own standards if France and Germany and other European countries decide to user lower standards through Basel III....

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The relationship between the French and American presidents helped build the alliance of the U.S. France and Britain in the joint response to the use of chemical weapons in Syria. The effort to end the use of chemical weapons was strongly supported by Macron and Trump.

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DJT was asked if China's celebration of Victory Day with Russia recently in Tianjin had any message for the US. He said he did not see it that way, that US has good relations with China. In this context the Smithsonian Museum exhibit on military history of the US shows a real aspect of the World War II in loss of life- Russia 17 million dead, China 11 million dead, Germany 10 million dead, Poland 5 million dead, Japan 2.5 million dead, US 1 million dead, UK 800,000 dead. Russian and Chinese losses of 28 million dead are 15 times the losses of US and UK combined of 1.8 million dead. With the scale of losses of such magnitude Victory Day celebrations in Tianjin can be seen in the context of this shared history and major losses overcome as much of the world knows with US help. A sobering view is that the colonial powers Imperial Japanese Army, French and British policies caused famines in World War II leading to 6-7 million deaths in India, Indonesia and Vietnam which is 4 times the 1.7 million US and UK deaths. Views of China in the Context of the Ukraine War and Russia are very different in US than in France and Europe and are widening in differences in 2025. In the US as in this report in the WSJ China is seen as a trade partner and competitor with certain issues, many of China's university leaders and experts question the prospect of a long term alliance with Russia, and for DJT Russia is a nuclear power with which US seeks good relations and a political settlement of the Ukraine War. In France as shown in the article in Le Monde adjacent to this the European attitudes towards Russia throughout European history since 1700 of regional rivalry between France and Russia, Germany and Russia since 1900, Britain and Russia since 1700. FDR led the alliance with Russia against the Nazis and Imperial Japanese in the 1930's and 1940's. Herbert Hoover led the effort to bring relief supplies and aid to Russian in the period of the Civil War after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. With China America kept the government in China functioning as it retreated from the invasion by the Imperial Japanese Army in the 1930's and 1940's and the only hope with Gen. Joe Stilwell in China alongside Chinese leaders. ...

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Imagine UK general elections July 4, France now set for June 30 July 7 for National Assembly, and the US on November 5. The French election is now set after EU elections showed a now unpopular Macron party losing badly to Marine Le Pen's National Rally party in EU elections. Macron created En Marche in 2017 as his way of renergizing French parties by bringing in younger people that contested and won 2 presidential elections. On economic issues of fairness for workers and dignity France is deeply divided as working class has suffered as in the US with some of the disaffected moving to Le Pen and some to Socialist parties led by Melenchon. Melenchon supporters helped Macron win in the last presidential elections even though his policies have veered to continue policies that did not favor the working class. Macron hopes to bring the Republican right party back into French politics for the Assembly election. France has a presidential system so the July 7 assembly election would give Macron a chance to appoint a prime minister from the Republican party of Nicholas Sarkozy. A similar situation exists in the UK after Conservatives failed and a big shift to Labor is seen for July 4th. ...

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This report in WSJ shows how European countries are maintaining salaries of employees who would otherwise be laid off. Governments have setup programs in France, Britain, Germany and other countries to provide employers with the money for 80-84% of salaries up to 2500 pounds ($3165) in Britain and 5330 euros a month in France. As a result 1 worker out of three in the private sector in France for subsidy applications for 6.9 million workers are already received. For the German program 2.4 million workers will get this benefit. About 1 million companies in Europe retain employees with this program of governments simply sending out the salaries with funds directly to households. This helps to keep out the stress for families, particularly families with children. It is as if the employees are not really laid off but asked to stay at home for manufacturing facilities and work from home in shorter hours where work can be done remotely.  Money is quickly deposited into the bank account of employees in these countries, though it is slower in Italy and Spain. It is as if the European approach is put the whole economy on pause for 2 months and restart it almost like before with only a small dent in employment once the coronavirus is pushed out with lockdowns and strict control actions. This will cap German unemployment at 5.9% compared with 5% last year, only a modest increase. The cost is not that much considering what it accomplishes. 10 billion euros is the cost in Germany where the state fund for this has 26 billion euros. 10 billion pounds in Britain. And 20 billion euros in France.  The U.S. adopts a similar approach also through its $349 billion program which provides loans to companies with less than 500 employees to meet payroll for 8 weeks and pay some overhead. Loans are forgiven based on job retention and employees on the payroll and only if the employees are retained. Another program is for companies larger than this. And a third program targets entire industries such as airlines, aerospace, and companies in other industries so that they do not have to layoff employees. U.S. unemployment insurance is modified to work along similar lines maintaining incomes of employees laid off because of the pandemic. Another program sends checks directly of $1200 to households with lower incomes to help them and to help people at poverty level or without jobs. The thrust of both the European and American efforts is the same, lose as few jobs as possible, keep people's incomes steady, and do this in a way that the economy can pick up quickly to the former level in as short a time as possible. Compared to Europe U.S. unemployment will be higher predicted at 9.8% with the expected rebound lowering the unemployment in 2021. ...

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Three tankers held off the coast of Mumbai by India's Cost Guard have been sanctioned for carrying Iranian oil. India stopped buying Iranian oil in DJT's first term 2016-2020. In his second term DJT wanted India to stop buying sanctioned Russian oil as a way to reduce funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine now in its fourth year. India has stopped buying Russian oil as part of the goodwill effort to reach trade agreements with the US, EU, and Germany. The seizing of the oil tankers is part of a new effort by India to support bringing Russia to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine war. Russia has demanded Ukraine turn over Donetsk region to end the war, which is a major stumbling block as Ukraine says there are Ukrainians living in Donetsk region. Germany's increase in its defense budget and investment in its armed forces has led to Germany+ (Germany plus UK and France) acting as the chief supporter of Ukraine, after the US has taken more of a neutral stand. The US basically wanting to end the war in 2026 so that the US can address the situation in the western hemisphere with drug and migrant trafficking gangs in Mexico, Venezuela and Columbia, and rebuild its economy to bring back manufacturing from China. For India the guiding principle of its foreign policy is Gandhiji's thinking and advice for fairness and peaceful coexistence - it does not believe in a British inspired NATO expanding on the borders of Russia, and at the same time does not see how a war on a neighboring Russian speaking region is in Russia's continued interest for a fourth year with bombing of energy infrastructure to leave Kviv in darkness. Non -alignment was Nehru's not Gandhiji's idea- the ideas of respect and fairness are basic to Gandhiji's thinking and India will remain true to his ideas in world relations. One aspect of this change in world affairs is missed by all and the media, that is that with the EU and US+ Japan, and India+ Indonesia there is a population of 1 billion of western peoples, and about 2 billion of Asian peoples, for a total of 3 billion people. This is a region three times the size of China, which with its access to capital and technology, labour and good governance is in a position to industrialize and reindustrialize, and bring manufacturing/science and technology to the core of this economic region by 2035. An industrialized India with 2X-3X the size of its current GDP will still be governed on Gandhiji's ideas for world relations in 2047. ...

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A warmer than expected winter and lower inflation is helping European stocks in Jan 2023, says this report in the WSJ. European indexes are also not weighed down by the decline in tech stocks as in the US. Germany's DAX and France's CAC have risen by 16% compared to 6.9% in the US for last 3 months.

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Late career layoff have affected savings of middle and professional class of Americans since 2009. Recent data show 25% of those laid off in years when kids college tution and other exorbitantly growing expenses can strain budgets and savings, are not able to find jobs. Others end up in lower paying work. Fewer job protections under Anglo Saxon capitalist economies of US and Britain compared to Germany and France lead to his type of job loss being more prevalent in these societies. Sometimes US can offer more job opportunities but this also comes with more job loss for many reasons. 

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Warnings to governments and leaders in industry and pharmaceutical research about epidemic preparedness by Bill Gates were ignored. He spent hundreds of millions of dollars to develop new vaccines and create disease tracking systems. But only governments could tackle this problem. He tells the WSJ in an interview that he feels terrible and that he wishes he had done more. His fear that a once in a century pandemic has come true. Governments did respond to the public health preparation needs as reported in France 24 to both SARS and the H1N1, both in Britain and France. It was the disbanding of this effort in the period of the global financial crisis and the eurozone financial crisis that led to the level of unpreparedness that Western Europe finds itself in today. This was caused by irresponsible banking practices. The response was austerity measures in Britain, France, Germany and Spain that led to leaving public health system investment being neglected, without fixing the original source of the problem. Misallocation of capital and lopsided priorities continued through most of the period leading up to the pandemic. There is a lot that Gates and other public spirited leaders could do now do in the new reordering of priorities and shifting the allocation of capital to public services and investments in infrastructure, and supply chain renewal to safeguard national interests. Today he is working with pharmaceutical executives and governments to produce billions of doses of vaccines while they are being tested. His foundation has reserved space in a manufacturing plant so that production can begin quickly once an effective vaccine is found. He says nobody has made 7 billion vaccines so that it will need all the help that it can get and international cooperation.  In an earlier interview with WSJ he told the interviewer in November 2014 that the world as a whole did not have preparedness. France and Britain prepared and then abandoned the effort for epidemic response by 2012 following the global financial and eurozone financial crises. Gates repeated the warning to 2016 presidential candidates in the U.S.  In 2017 at the Munich Security Conference he reminded people- "getting ready for a global pandemic is every bit as important as nuclear deterrence and avoiding a climate catastrophe." One focus of Gates was to come up with faster ways to a vaccine by using ready made components and then customizing it. This is an approach being adopted today by Oxford scientists and by Quidel Corp. in the U.S.   ...

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People at street protests in France are increasingly asking whether the pension reform from 62 to 64 years is that much of a priority in 2023 when people are just recovering from the pandemic and a cost of living crisis with high inflation and high energy costs stemming from the Ukraine conflict. The independent Pension Advisory Council stated "pension spending is not out of control, it is relatively contained." More people turned out than before in a second round of street protests by over half a million people in Paris. The reforms come down harder on women who worked part time to raise children. Age discrimination for jobs in France is widespread. The pandemic has created additional stress and burnout at work leading to early retirement in the US and other countries. Some of the pension changes are being used to finance an expansion of the military budget. Social justice is seen as at risk in France in a society that is socially fragmented.

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Raphael Glucksmann is emerging as a surprise for the Socialists just as Macron emerged out of the cabinet of Francois Hollande as leader of En Marche. Socialists and Democrats Alliance is the party group in the EU parliament that represents social democratic parties in Europe that govern in Germany, Denmark, Spain and are prominent in Sweden and France. Melenchon leads an alliance of socialist parties in France but has not done as well with moderates. Raphael Glucksmann is seen as a new voice for Socialists in France in upcoming elections. Migration has shaken up parties in Europe but this may be receding in importance as most of the socialist parties have shifted to strict policies to keep out migrants. This is happening in the US as Mr. Biden has closed the border with Mexico. Climate Change was an issue in elections helping the Greens in the last chancery election. As socialist parties and conservative parties adopt the Greens policies on climate this has reduced support for Greens from the peak in 2020. ...

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The Iran nuclear deal of 2015 begins to unravel as the European Union takes the first step towards the reimposing of sanctions. Britain, France and Germany triggered a dispute settlement mehanism in the agreement which can result in the United Nations reimposing international sanction on Iran's economy, banks, and top officials within 2 months. This follows Iran's resumption of nuclear activities banned under the agreement. Earlier the U.S. withdrew from the agreement and the European Union tried to save the agreement. Recent tensions and the U.S. insistence on the renegotiating for a new agreement have led to this collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran.