LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan, wins by 84% to his challenger's 16% of the vote in the Republican primary for his House seat of Janesville, Wisconsin. The challenger Nehlen, an executive at a water filtration company, adopted many of Trump's positions including building a wall and had the support of the group Tea Party Patriots. Trump lost to Ted Cruz in Wisconsin and lost in the 1st congressional district covering Janesville by 19 percentage points. Janesville, is a former industrial working class town that has lost many factory jobs over the years, and this election shows the trade issue is not the only issue on people's minds when they vote. That it is easy for a candidate to use it as wedge even when they do not mean what they say by outsourcing themselves, or have few real solutions- especially as public opinion in both parties is opposed to a shift of jobs overseas for the last decade. Ryan said about his win- "I'm a local guy, people know who I am, they know what I believe in and they know I mean what I say and I say what I mean and I don't do it in a mean way." Some Republican experts say Ryan's job of winning his seat very easily, protecting the congressional majority of Republicans, and dealing with Trump as the nominee, is the hardest job in politics. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Responding to criticism of the Clinton Foundation which has affected Hillary Clinton's ability to win voter support in her contest with Bernie Sanders, the Clinton family has decided to take action in August 2016. The Clinton Global Initiative will be discontinued in 2017. Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton will stop raising funds for the Clinton foundation. The Clinton Foundation will not accept funds from foreign donors. What started as a do-good effort to raise funds for worthy causes such as world health, poverty and hunger turned out -because of its very success in raising large amounts of money from corporate donors- into a distraction for the election campaign of Hillary Clinton in 2016. It opened up Hillary Clinton to charges of having conflicts of interest from outsiders Sanders and Trump. Hillary Clinton discontinued her association as a board member of the foundation in 2015 when she began her campaign. Bill Clinton continued to give paid speeches and raised $2.6 million. All that fund raising appears to have been a big mistake and not even fair to the candidate, as it gave rise to misperceptions about the candidate going far beyond what the Clintons ever understood about was happening. As former Labor Secretary Robert Reich put it, it gives rise to accusations of impropriety that may affect an election, without the voters getting a chance to evaluate the candidates on the basis of what each candidates program or agenda is. In this the Clinton family may have realized that in retrospect the entire foundation activity appears to be a small matter, when put next to the choices facing the U.S. and the world in 2016 for the next decade and beyond. The Clinton Foundation in future would be managed by people independent of the Clinton family and circle. The next step would be setting it up as a public foundation, a new board and professional staff. Was it all worth the problems it has created for voters being able to get a clear idea of what each candidate offered, an not acting as a huge and dangerous distraction which Hillary Clinton and the country and the world could do without, considering the significance of making good choices in a general election- very much so. The foundation and the fund raising made it possible for outsiders Sanders and Trump to turn this election into one of slogans and accusations, to which the Clintons were unprepared to respond, acting as a distraction  which was bad for the country and the world. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman says there is cause for concern from May's U.S. jobs report of only 38,000 jobs added- low even with Verizon strike jobs added back in- compared to the 200,000 a month average since Jan 2013. One cannot read too much into one months report, yet the political uncertainty in a election year adds to the problem. The low interest rates near zero offering little possibility for rate cuts, make it difficult to come up with a policy response. Under a Clinton administration the infrastructure spending option would face Republican resistance.  It is not clear how a Trump administration would respond. Krugman says the jobs figure reflects a stronger dollar- a result partly of the Fed's plan to raise rates- that is hurting U.S. exports.

LyrArc Article Gist
Paul Krugman, Nobel prize winning economist points out an astonishing fact about the 2016 U.S. presidential election- U.S. television networks nightly news devoted only 32 minutes in 2016 to all policy issues combined. And these networks devoted 100 minutes to Clinton emails. He calls this "disgraceful."  For weeks at a time in September and October the main television networks lacked the integrity and courage to ask questions and persist on the major questions facing the country of the economy, correcting income distribution that has been skewed away from the middle and working class, infrastructure rebuilding, education and healthcare, and what the policy proposals of each candidate would do for the country. Krugman does not mention this but the media devoted hardly any time to the economic plan devised by Trump that respected economists and economic analysis showed would increase the deficit by $5.3 trillion, and lead to a short term temporary increase in growth followed by a sharp decline. The worst thing that could happen to middle and working class families struggling to recover from the blow to their finances from the last recession.  The cyber hacking of a U.S. presidential election by a foreign power never received the unanimous rejection that it deserved from the television networks, not just Fox News as Krugman points out, but by all the networks. The future landscape of the media needs assessment to bring in new ideas and new entrants to bring constructive improvements, and for older media organizations to rebuild after the loss of confidence among young people. Only about a quarter of young people in the U.S. have confidence in the large media organizations news coverage according to surveys done recently. There are other pressures coming from the tech world that make it imperative to do this. Many experts point to the destructive effect of social media in spreading rumors or information disguised as facts, which are spread instantly by Twitter and Facebook, without any obligation to check the facts. This is also dangerous with a public that is now divided between better educated and less educated along political lines, older more settled in their views people, and younger people quicker in looking for the facts and checking things out before believing them. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor in New York, only a second crime turns it into a felony. WSJ Editorial Board asks the question what is the second crime in the Trump indictment that turns a misdemeanor into a felony under New York law. District Attorney Alvin Bragg says "under New York election law it is illegal to promote a candidacy by unlawful means." With the hush money payments Mr. Trump is seen as promoting his candidacy unlawfully, and the payments themselves as illegally done campaign contributions. Another aspect of law is that the situation was not brought up in 2017, yet is perceived very differently in 2023. Much more is known in 2023 than in the early days of  the election campaign in 2017.

LyrArc Article Gist
In another one of the unusual twists in the early days of the Trump presidency, Trump says president Obama ordered wiretapping of Trump Towers. Media analysts say this is an effort to deflect criticism of Attorney General Jeff Sessions for meeting Russian officials during the election campaign. The FBI says this claim of wiretapping by Obama should be withdrawn. Obama refutes the allegation.

LyrArc Article Gist
Thomas Friedman of the NYT points out the three aces held by Donald Trump in the U.S. election campaign of 2016. He could move to the centre in a campaign against Hillary Clinton and voters could give him a pass saying he only meant to start a conversation on immigration with his comment on the wall, that his comments on Muslims read carefully only means he would tighten controls on some countries, that he was acting in the way he said in his book "The Art of the Deal." A terrorist attack could change the atmosphere in the election and benefit Trump. And he could set a barrage of ads against Hillary bringing anti-Hillary Republicans back to his side after the divisions in a Republican convention. On the opposite side of this is Trump's penchant for making wild statements that could lead to a break with his support base, especially women who are shifting away according to some recent polls in mid March. Another vulnerability says Friedman is the rough way in which minorities are treated at Trump rallies, which could backfire with a serious incident resulting in hugely negative media coverage....

LyrArc Article Gist
Janet Protasiewicz, a Democrat, wins 55% to 45% for Republican Daniel Kelly in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. This gives Democrats a one vote majority in the Supreme Court. It will mean a challenge of a 1849 abortion law and the redrawing of the electoral maps that gives Republicans  a majority in the state assembly. The governor is Democrat Tony Evers and the legislature in Wisconsin has a Republican majority.  States in the midwest such as Michigan and Wisconsin played a part in Mr. Trump's gain of the presidency. Since then Ohio has moved into the Republican side, and the close contests are in places like Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Colorado moved to the Democratic side. Just 40,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin separated Biden from Trump in the election of 2020 even though Biden had 7 million more votes than Biden because of the Electoral College system which goes by state's won. In 2016 Trump and Biden were separated by just 80,000 votes.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
James Galbraith points out how Trump appeals to aging Reagan voters on Social Security, and older white Americans. He says much of the talk about the wall is bluster to appeal to this group of voters. On the Democratic side he points out the failure of Hillary Clinton to appeal to younger voters. Galbraith says the young are voting in large numbers for Sanders, and this is likely to shape U.S. elections in 2020, even though Trump and Clinton are nominees of the Republicans and Democrats in 2016.

LyrArc Article Gist
Karen Handel, Republican, and Jon Ossoff, Democrat, compete in Georgia's 6th Congressional District in the most costly House race in history. It has become a referendum on Trump. Democrats need 24 more seats to get a majority in the House of Representatives, and Georgia is the place where they have started their effort. Yet experts say voters are deciding based on the candidates and their merits not just the party or Trump.

LyrArc Article Gist
Former president Trump is indicted in New York on charges of paying hush money to a porn star during his 2016 election campaign.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Wall Street Journal offers this exceptional video that looks at what each of the indictments of Mr. Trump mean and how they affect his campaign, and how the campaign strategy of playing to public opinion may or may not work. It is possible that all the four trials could take place during the campaign season and Mr. Trump would have to defend in court as well as conduct his election campaign at the same time, says this video. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The 2016 Republican platform is written to express the ideas in the Republican Party for family values, child rearing using the Bible and traditional values, calling pornography a "public health crisis."  The Family Research Council and tradition or family focussed groups played an important role in writing it, with Mr. Trump playing less of a role. Instead of "physical barrier" with Mexico, it says "a wall"  should be built in a taking up Trump's idea, but in general it is a clear expressing of traditional family values that Republicans have supported for years and expressed frustration with the movement of social lives in an opposite direction. The same sex marraige decision by the Supreme Court and transgender debate were not present in 2012 election, so in that sense the Republicans see the country as moving in a different direction. More of the pendulum having swung too far in another direction is how Republicans perceive it, and their response is to go back to how things used to be and the world they knew, based on what they see as positive outcomes for the whole of society. Hence language that encourages teaching of the Bible in public schools, condemning pornography as a menace particularly for children, and insisting on "man made laws being consistent with God given natural rights." A good understanding of the Bible is considered "indispensable for the development of an educated citizenry."   Amendments opposing gay and transgender are being added. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The nearly unanimous support for president Trump in the impeachment inquiry from Republicans in Congress is a result of strong consistent support from a loyal base, strong fund raising in competitive races for members of Congress who supported Trump, and the sense that the whole process was flawed and part of partisan politics. There was also a sense among members of Congress in the House and Senate that the actions in Ukraine did not rise to the level of impeachable offense.  Throughout the process from the beginning Mr. Trump, Mr. Pence, Mr. McCarthy minority leader in the House and Mr. McConnell majority leader in the Senate stayed engaged with individual members keeping together a tight knit community of legislators. As a result unprecedented action was seen in 2019-2020 with every single Democrat voting for impeachment and every single Republican voting against, and prominent members of each side showing outrage at events or how the proceedings were conducted. Each side even seeing the impeachment inquiry as a strategic step towards the presidential election in 2020. Democrats looking for some slight advantage in the midwestern states that moved the election to Trump the last time. Republicans seeing this as a way to rally the base, play to Mr. Trump's strengths in persuasion, and to vigorously defend the economic achievements in international trade agreements and the economy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. senior Republican Senators Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona, are getting ready to launch a wide ranging probe of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election through cyber attacks. The probe is not limited to DNC hacking and the concern is not just that any one candidate was targeted but for the integrity of the American election process. Even though it is not mentioned in this report in the Washington Post by Demirjian, Senators and Congressmen from the Republican Party in charge of key committees of oversight on foreign policy and defense now see it as their responsibility to prevent an enlargement of cyberattacks as Germany and France face elections. Mr. Trump has said in an interview with Time magazine that Russia was not responsible for cyber attacks, that it "could have been China, it could have been some guy in New Jersey." Senator McCain is readying a probe into cyber attacks into U.S. weapons systems, and U.S. military, as the issue widens in its scope and significance for the West and for the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Asia. Senate Select Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (N.C.) will be working closely with McCain, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, on this particular issue and Senator Mitch McConnell has been apprised of the discussions, according to this report in WP. Senator Graham said- "They'll keep doing more here until they pay a price." Graham will hold a series of investigative hearings in 2017 about Russian meddling and "misadventures throughout the world."  This will include new legislation.  Graham told CNN on Dec. 7, 2016 in strong language- "I am going after Russia in every way you can go after Russia. I think they are one of the most destabilizing influences on the world stage. I think they did interfere with our election, and I want Putin personally to pay the price." During the debates Governor Pence of Indiana, the Vice President elect took a strong position on Russia, and the Vice President's positions on foreign policy and defense are similar to that of the Republican leaders in Congress.  It is hard to remember a time in the post war period when there was such a distinct difference in foreign policy and defense as it relates to Russia between a Republican president and both a Republican Congress and almost all Republican governors. Senator Corker from Tennessee, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is on the short list to be Secretary of State. A related story in the WSJ shows the selection of military leaders for key intelligence, defense and homeland security, and Gen. Petraeus considered for foreign policy, as diverging from historical practice of keeping civilian oversight preeminent in the U.S.. Rep. Peter King, an early supporter of Trump, who is on committees for intelligence and counterterrorism told MSNBC, that he is confident that Trump will not be "taken in by Putin." The U.S. Republican dominated Congress has taken a strong position on Russian interference in Syria and Ukraine. In the House of Representatives Republican Rep. Devin Nunes from California and Rep. Mac Thornberry from Texas are leading efforts on cyber and intelligence as heads of their committees. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that the federal tax rate for the top 1% is 34% in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office, because president Obama let the high end Bush tax cuts to expire. It is the number to remember says Krugman- 34. In 2008 the figure was 28.2. Under Hillary Clinton the average tax rate for the top 1% would go up by 3.4 percentage points, according to the Tax Policy Center. Some of this would help pay for the tution plan to provide access to the middle class to public universities. Under populist Trump, Krugman points to the elimination of the inheritance tax and tax rates going down substantially, and no such programs to promote the upward mobility that everyone is talking about, and no way to pay for a big infrastructure building effort for growth and jobs- upward mobility that is the focus of every candidate's election campaign including Sanders, Trump in appealing to older white working class families, Clinton, Ryan, Bush, and others in both parties.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Two weeks after his election Donald Trump says the U.S. will not join the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement during his term in office. Barack Obama took seven years to negotiate the trade agreement which was opposed by trade unions, the auto industry and was unpopular in the midwestern U.S. because of the impact of trade in hollowing out the manufacturing sector. Here Frank Sieren of the DW.com points out that the agreement was not really about trade, as most of the gains of trade had already been realized according to experts. It was part of the "pivot to Asia" to maintain American dominance in the region, says Sieren. After China pulled together some Asian and European countries into its trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the U.S. pushed for TPP as a counterweight to the China sponsored trade zone. China says it will try to integrate the countries in TPP into the trade zone it has sponsored. President Trump has said that the U.S. is better off negotiating agreements with each country and not getting into multilateral trade agreements. He fought the election campaign on the basis of the opposition to TPP and trade agreements that unfairly hurt American workers. This could have provided the 110,000 margin of victory in the states suffering from the hollowing out in manufacturing such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A similar hollowing out in Ontario favored Justin Trudeau's Liberals against the Conservatives in Canada's election. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After ending talks for a broad coronavirus aid package till after the November 3 election Mr. Trump says he still supports individual measures including help for the airline industry. He also supports aid to small business measures, and direct checks to Americans of $1200 going out immediately.

LyrArc Article Gist
November 18, 2020 WSJ ran the editorial from the Editorial Board- Rage against the Voting Machine. Rejecting the claims made by Mr. Trump and others about the 2020 election. WSJ cites this editorial and an Op-ed by the CEO of Dominion on its pages that showed its position was not affected by FNN even though News Corporation is the parent company of both. And showing its independent judgement after the election of president Biden with a margin of over 7 million more votes, in rejecting such erroneous claims.

LyrArc Article Gist
A charm offensive is under way following the New York primary led by Mr. Manafort to show the Republican National Committee (RNC) Trump is just "playing a part" and has another demeanor. Wiley points out that Trump would appeal to traditionally Democratic states in the midwest that have working class Reagan Democrats. This follows a parallel effort by Trump presenting an election narrative to draw voters by saying that the system is rigged, first banking, then trade, now the way delegates are chosen, to increase voter support at a time when voters have genuine concerns. Yet the fact that Trump won 90% of the delegates with 60% of the vote in New York, provides proof that it is not, says Vince Preibus, RNC chairman. Others point to the splintered vote in the early primaries as disproportionately benefitting Trump, as well as the media coverage for sensational statements, and jingoistic talk about China, Mexico and Muslims.

LyrArc Article Gist
President Trump reverses himself and says he supports intelligence agencies assessment showing Russia interfered in the U.S. presidential election of 2016. Earlier Trump told reporters on an Asian trip he did not think Russia meddled in the U.S. election. He cited Russian president Putin's remarks on the matter about not meddling after a brief meeting. and said he agreed with Putin on this point.

LyrArc Article Gist
Seib of the WSJ compares the Reagan election in 1980 with Trump's bid in 2016. He finds the idea of an outsider when the public mood was for change favoring Trump, but says the comparison with Reagan falls short because Reagan had behind him 8 years as governor of the largest state in the country, and a bid for the nomination 4 years earlier. He also had personal positive approval ratings of about 70 percent compared to 27 percent for Trump.  Reagan's first trp after the convention in 1980 was to Alabama to win the support of George Wallace people in the Deep South. His focus was on reuniting all parts of the Republican Party something absent in 2016. Seib's comment about Trump being stronger on the economy is not clear. With the economy recovering, and slowing down as the presidential election approaches amid increasing uncertainty, it is possible that voters would not want to risk abrupt and sudden changes with an untested candidate. Working class voters could still see some of their concerns for change addressed by the Bernie Sanders part of the Democratic platform with help in college tution, addressing wage concerns, and opposing export of jobs, when Trump's program gives few specifics. Another difference between Reagan and Trump is that Reagan had put together an economic team under Shultz which was able to win credibility with an actual plan to implement in the first 100 days. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT puts a 50% tariff on Brazil on JUly 9, 2025 following the trial of former president Bolsonaro's. In a long letter DJT says the trial of Bolsonaro was similar to the trial he Trump faced in the US in 2024 by zealous prosecutors. Da Silva is president of Brazil and says Brazil is a sovereign country. He was briefly jailed during the Bolsonaro government but won the election in Brazil in 2022.

LyrArc Article Gist
Experts say about 110,000 votes separate Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that decided the 2016 presidential election in the U.S. giving Trump the win. Post election reflection in the Democratic party points to a disconnect between the establishment in both parties and the white working class. It is described as something that was not thought enough about even though as pointed out in Lyrarc, and in The Washington Post by columnists, and in news coverage about the inequality movement long before Bernie Sanders appeared in 2015. In the period when banks were favored over millions of homeowners facing foreclosure in 2010-2014, the surging stock market and the zero to to half percent interest on savings that hurt savings of most of the working class and lower middle class without stock investments, and the continuing problems in communities facing job losses from trade for the third decade. The hollowing out of the regions in Ontario from job losses from the Canadian industry helped Justin Trudeau win the Canadian election. In this election it helped Trump in crucial midwestern states, combined with a degree of indifference shown by establishment Democrats. Former Vermont governor Howard Dean is planning to run for chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Bernie Sanders says he backs Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison to be the next chair of the DNC. Jeff Weaver, campaign manager for Sanders, says the problem lies in what has been clear for some time now "that the centrist wing of the democratic party has no standing with working class and middle class  voters in this country." In 2016 only 51% of union households supported Clinton the lowest since 1980, 43% supported Trump. Obama won 59% of union households in 2008 and 58% in 2012 to 40% for Republican Romney. Trump picked up 3% of union households, Clinton lost 7% of union households, creating about a 10 point gap that would be magnified in industrial states where union jobs are concentrated, for about 18% of the people who voted in the election, enough to create the shortfall in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsyslvania. Fed chairman Janet Yellen pointed out the problems at an Inequality conference in Boston in 2014, pretty stark in its reminder that inequality had surged to levels not seen since the depression of the thirties, with 62 million households having a net worth of $11,000. Krugman and other economists had pointed this out on the pages of the NYT. Yet the post election reflection in the media is as if this is some special insight when it was clear for all to see, and covered in depth in Lyrarc for years since 2008. There is voter fatigue after 8 years of one party in power as pointed out by Obama campaign strategist, David Axelrod. The loss of union enthusiasm made the task of  a third term for the Democratic party even more difficult.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Two women Claudia Sheinbaum of Morena party and Xochitl Galvez of National Action party are contesting the presidential election in Mexico in 2024. President Lopez Obrador is from the Morena party, he was former mayor of Mexico city and led the socialists to government in 2018 with his book presenting his message "Saying No to Corruption, Violence and Trump's Wall." He won by a landslide and during his term he targeted corrupt officials and worked with the US Trump administration, and now Biden administration on tackling migration and border issues.