LyrArc Article Gist
Sadanand Dhume points out the change in women's fertility rate that will add one more factor to improvement in the quality of life and access to resources in India. This comes as development projects, infrastructure, logistics, is being built in the north at a pace unprecedented in history. Women's fertility rate has dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 in India. Because of the youthful population with median age of 28 in India population will peak at 1.6 billion in 2050 making India the largest country by population in the world- with one in 6 people on the planet in India. From a fertility rate of 6 in 1960 in India, with each woman having 6 babies, it is down to 3 by 2005 and 2 in 2021. This shows the effect of sustained development over time, which is also evident in agricultural production where India is now self sufficient in food. For many years the Hindi speaking heartland suffered from poor governance and mismanagement of the economy- the region that covers Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh has a population of 250 million, Bihar 131 million and Madhya Pradesh 86 million, for a total of 467 million about the size of North America or the European Union. It is this region that is now pushing a development agenda today more than any other region in India with the joint effort of both the federal and state, local, governments in a way that is unprecedented in Indian history. Because of the Gati Shakti Master Plan, Atman Nirbhar Make in India Plan, and push for local is vocal, the infrastructure efforts in building roads, highways, airports and logistics, the advances in digitization and use of new technologies, there is an added boost with new synergies in this development effort. A new airport and logistics setup at Noida in Uttar Pradesh will be the largest in Asia, a new Ganga Expressway is planned, and many development projects are being launched in Varanasi, Prayagraj and other cities in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh. Leaders at the federal level Mr. Modi, Mr. Piyush Goyal, and at the state level Mr. Adityanath, are pushing the development projects at a pace that will make these areas the fastest developing in India, and quite possibly the world, in a the next 3-5 years. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Only the week before Tuesday April 7 Pakistan Foreign Minister Dhar failed to convince China to get involved. April 7th Tuesday in the US 1.30 pm US time, 8 pm Islamabad Pakistan time, China finally decided to jump in to convince Iran to accept peace talks in Islamabad. It is quite possible that behind the scenes the US was talking with China which has a 25 Year Comprehensive Agreement with Iran signed in 2021 that is the main support for the Iranian economy. China acted to reassure Iran that talks in Islamabad would proceed smoothly, and persuade Iran to accept ceasefire and talks. Why? Knowing that brinksmanship by US and Iran would lead to unforeseen consequences and hurt China's economy with oil price volatility as well as  hurt the US economy, and hurt the prospects for the planned May14-15 visit by DJT to Beijing to improve economic and political ties, both China and the US wanted to do everything to prevent this from happening. The result a hastily arranged peace talks in Islamabad so that by 4 am Islamabad time on Wednesday or 6.30 pm US time on Tuesday evening the ceasefire had already been agree to by US and Iran, according to this report in The Guardian from Pakistan. The crux of the matter was that it would affect US and China's economy with oil volatility, and US-China relations by jeopardizing May 14-15 revised date for DJT visit to Beijing. This good sense prevailed over all the war rhetoric and the media information and disinformation. It is confusing because of all the misinformation, but becomes clear when one understands this in the context provided in this report from Pakistan by the Guardian. Why Pakistan? For Pakistan the missile attack the day before of a Saudi petrochemical complex by Iran was drawing Saudis into the war and Pakistan has signed a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia that requires Pakistan to support Saudi Arabia if it gets into a war. For Pakistan it was a fragile situation that would be a catastrophe with unforeseen consequences on its economy. Already schools are closed for 1 month in Pakistan and oil is in short supply, paying for it at $115 or $125 a barrel would put severe strain on Pakistan. Who wins, who loses is being told in the media- much less on the good sense that prevailed  the efforts and the predicament of the large powers China, India, the US, and Germany, European Union, the poorer countries, all hurt economically, caught in a war they do not want, do not need. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Next to Uttar Pradesh 242 million population adjacent Bihar with 128 million is decisive in Indian parliament elections since 1947- 2025 state elections show BJP NDA (Modi) sweeping win with over 203 of 243. Assembly seats. Unknown to most of the world is that this region is the birthplace of Buddhist civilization and culture, that later was part of Asian culture and civilization as it spread to China and Japan. Modi plans to add to Nalanda and other seats of Buddhist ancient universities on the world map with UNESCO listings.  The Indian economy needs 15-20 years of stable government dedicated to rapid accelerated growth with full access to US and EU technologies and capital to catch up with China, the US and EU. The road to this starts with 5 regions- northcentral  region Gujarat/Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh  (99 seats), west central region Maharashtra (48 seats), northern region Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Haryana and Delhi region (17 seats) and Eastern region Bihar (40 seats) which together provide  seats in Indian parliament  284 seats out of total of 543 seats in the Indian parliament. For the first time with the win in Bihar the Modi government is now within reach of this goal of being able to govern in a democracy for next 15 years by delivering on infrastructure, cost of living and rapid industrialization and growth of the economy similar to Japan's and China's growth since 1950. The LDP delivered this in Japan, the CCP in China and the NDA under Modi is in the same position today. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China follows Japan in the proportion of its elderly population at a similar juncture in its development. A paper from Japan's Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry pointed out that the proportion of child and elderly populations in China as of 2020 was similar to Japan's in 1990. China reached that inflection point faster with fertility rate falling from 2.74 to 1.28 in a 4 decade period, while Japan's fell from 1.75 to 1.29. That paper also shows India's proportion of child and elderly population in 2020 was similar to China's in 1980 when its economic boom took off. The overconcentration of supply chain in China is now being addressed by business in US and Europe after the pandemic showed its weakness. Prime minister Modi says this overconcentration has hurt even and balanced development worldwide.

LyrArc Article Gist
Elected to the Politburo in 1980, Gorbachev became president of USSR in 1985. In the six year period to 1991 he launched a movement to free the USSR from the rigid constraints of communist party rule called Perestroika to improve productivity, freedoms and quality of life. He came from a peasant family with Ukrainian origins and was born in 1931 during the period of upheaval in Russia. The rapid removal of Soviet rule was something Russia was not able to adapt to in the early years with no experience in democratic process. By 2000 after drop in life expectancy and fall in the standard of living Mr. Putin emerged as president.  Russia's economy recovered under Putin's three terms till the miscalculations in the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, that were itself a result of a sense that Russia had lost something with the fall of the Soviet Union and the advancement of NATO and the European Union. Gorbachev's sense in his memoirs was that Russia would do best under democracy. Even in 2017 he wrote that Russia and its people were "ready for a real multiparty system, fair elections and a regular rotation of government." Yet he was too much of an optimist and not enough hands on to grasp that Russia was a large economy and safeguards had to be put in place for the rule of law to prevent lawless elements that could control companies, safeguards for the vulnerable sections of society such as pensioners and older people, and limited self government through elected assemblies and parliaments were needed for a decade before democracy to take roots. Gorbachev's knowledge of American and British democracies, constitutions and parliaments and their evolution over centuries was non existent, with little contact and education of this sort under the Czar or Soviets. The democracies in Germany and Japan were established with American power and extensive education, the Marshall Plan, and unlimited imports by the US from Japan to prevent economic catastrophes of the kind experienced by the Weimar Republic in Germany in the 1920's. No plan from western aid and assistance, limited self government of the people was introduced as training ground as in India. In India the British introduced limited self-government or Swaraj in the 1930's with elected assemblies in Indian states, in the pattern of Dominion states such as Canada and Australia. Mohandas Gandhi negotiated the rights of indentured Indians in South Africa in this arrangement and studied British law and constitutions. This led to the catastrophic failure of the rule of law in Russia after 1979, lawless elements emerging under Yeltsin  that controlled companies and the state, high unemployment, failure of the economy, and drop in life expectancy between 1979 and 2005. How this led to the Putin years and now led to the war in Ukraine is covered in more detail under the Lyrarc article on Gorbachev and how he is seen in Germany. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Under Mette Frederiksen immigration which reached 21,000 in 2015 was down to a little over 1000 a year. She is a strong fighter for workers and families and labor rights and yet tough on illegal immigration. She has been proven right about this as Britain and the US under Biden are seeing illegal immigration as a threat to workers and labour, are seeing the risks of distraction from illegal immigration doing a serious disservice to workers and families by making it hard to fight for workers and families on wages, cost of living and other issues.  Even with a strong record of fighting for workers and families, Frederiksen was one of the first European leaders to see the dangers of illegal immigration to society. It gave parts of the political spectrum that had no interest all along in workers and families doing well, an issue to run on that would come to cause grave harm to workers and families. This turned out to be the error of Angela Merkel a CDU leader brought up in Communist East Germany, who had no idea of the risks of her approach for open immigration. As Merkel let this chapter unfold it created fissures in Europe, with Tories and Nigel Farage taking Britain out of the EU and laying waste to its economy for 5 years till Labour's Starmer adopted a tough immigration policy and became prime minister in 2024. That danger then spread to the US in 2016 which also suffered as Republicans and Trump did the same in the US around rhetoric but without serious action on immigration till the Lankford- Biden legislation.  That bill would have closed the border with Mexico and ended immigration as an issue forever if passed into law in December 2023, as Senator Lankford says would have happened. Ending immigration as an issue forever alongside foreign wars as an issue, so that a concentrated effort could be made on improving badly damaged lives of workers and families. And on rebuilding badly damaged manufacturing in the US, rebuilding collapsing infrastructure, and competing with better education and healthcare with the large Asian countries China, Japan/ South Korea, India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
 China exports to the US $438 billion vs $143 billion the US sends to China - the US deficit with China 2024 equals $295 billion. This is the fact that the media continues to ignore. Behind this is the gutting of the industrial base of the US shipped offshore to China since 2000 by American companies. 5 million jobs lost and tens of thousands of factories destroying the backbone of the economy, America's middle class.  Much of the US exports are oil and gas which can be shipped to Europe, India and other places. The soyabeans and grain from America's farmers is the other part of exports of $13 billion. The US can find other markets for the farm products including India under a trade agreement, and farmers can be supported with agricultural subsidies. It only makes sense to rebuild America's industrial base and pull back from an unfair trade arrangement that can only be the result of serious neglect of their responsibilities of previous administrations before DJT in 2016. The piecemeal efforts 2016-2024 have not worked to rebuild America's middle class,  recover jobs and factories, as a result a new bolder approach is needed in 2025 to rewrite the rules for world trade for an even playing field where everyone is treated with fairness. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
There are 240 Norwegian and Finnish companies in India, says this report in The Hindu. Nordic countries are providing green technologies to India. At the Nordic-India Summit held in Copenhagen in May 2022, the five Nordic prime ministers and prime minister Modi agreed to intensify cooperation on digitalisation, renewable energy, maritime industries and the circular economy. Denmark is helping India with ports and logistics. Trade ministers of Norway and Finland visiting India together  Feb 9-10 describe the efforts to provide Nordic technology solution in green transition to India. Trade between Norway and India has doubled in the last 3 years and the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund is likely to become on the largest investors in India at $17.6 billion. Vestre us Norway's Minister of Trade and Industry, Skinnari is Finnish Minister of Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade. 

LyrArc Article Gist
A new state government in Bihar state, India, takes shape with Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister and 2 Deputy CM's from the BJP party. Bihar is the second largest state in India after Uttar Pradesh, with Maharashtra the third, West Bengal fourth making up the top four by population each with over 100 million people. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat make up the top 7 states each of these three with about 75 million population. Rapid economic development depends on state governments working with the federal government on investment, technologies and effective governance. Gujarat and Maharashtra form an industrial core for India with investment increasing in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh which forms the rural interior in the Ganges plains. In contrast to China where industrial development is state driven led by the CCP in a centralized form embedded in the complete authority of the central government, India has to achieve this through the democratic process based on delivery of infrastructure projects and standards of living. Much of this depends on the combined effort of federal and state governments ,with seven of these eight states having this coordinated effort in 2024, at a time when foreign investment in the economy is increasing rapidly to diversify global supply chains. This provides an opportunity for India to change from a developing economy to an advanced industrial economy in stages by 2030 and 2040. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The reopening of the economy is being stalled and lockdowns, restrictions, reinstated in July 2020 as the pandemic surges. The lockdowns are being reinstated in parts of Australia, in Bihar, India and other countries, and in other places such as California restrictions are back in place. Wearing masks in public spaces is also mandatory in Britain and France as prevention measures are being taken. In Japan wearing masks is a habit from before the pandemic. India, the U.S. and Brazil, Mexico are seeing a surge.

LyrArc Article Gist
During Singh's term in office 2004-2014 economic changes of a new type and with new leadership were taking place in state of Gujarat in western India under chief minister Narendra Modi similar to that of New York state under Governor Franklin Roosevelt before FDR assumed office as president in 1932. Modi of the same party as Singh's predecessor Atal Bihari Vajpayee of the Bharatiya Janata party, added a new set of skills and confidence in industrial development for the state model in Gujarat to be adopted for the whole of India, when he won the national elections in 2014. Vajpayee and Modi were different from the politicians in India in 1947-2000, pushing Modernization, Nationhood, and corruption free effective government. Manmohan Singh was prime minister during a period of transition in India 2005-2014 from the socialist economy to the market economy. As head of the central bank and finance minister he earlier initiated the changes when India's reserves had dropped to record low levels by 1991. His biometric data initiatives and other actions kept the Indian economic initiatives in place that wold provide the base from which another prime minister Modi could launch India on a new trajectory for transforming the country into an industrialized nation. During Singh's term in office 2004-2014 economic changes of a new type and with new leadership were taking place in state of Gujarat in western India under chief minister Narendra Modi. Modi of the same party as Singh's predecessor Atal Bihari Vajpayee of the Bharatiya Janata party, added a new set of skills and confidence in industrial development for the state model in Gujarat to be adopted for the whole of India, when he won the elections in 2014. Vajpayee and Modi were different from the politicians in India in 1947-2000, pushing Modernization, Nationhood, and corruption free effective government. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
India Production Linked Incentive to provide incentives to manufacturing in key sectors of the economy under Atman Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan is discussed here in The Mint. PLI for textiles production and for pharmaceutical production with bold targets for 2025 are suggested. Other sectors are telecom (mobile phones) and networking (5G), computers, servers and other devices including Artificial Intelligence and related technologies a sector given special emphasis by minister Ravi Prasad in the video on PLI. 

Also included are automobiles and auto components, cell battery, solar technologies and production, specialty steel.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Indian Express looks at a draft of the National Curriculum Framework of India, which modifies the current system of rote learning and separation of the sciences and engineering from the humanities and liberal arts subjects. The current system leaves the students at secondary level lacking the foundational skills for a modern economy. NCF tries to address this. In line with the multidisciplinary approach taken by the National Education Policy (NEP) for India in 2020, the NCF encourages students to develop multidisciplinary thinking skills by mixing arts subjects and humanities with science subjects and math. The NCF proposal is to assess students in grades 10 through 12 over 4 years and not one board exam every year. This fits in with NEP's vision for a 'holistic" education.  The NEP "envisions a reenergizing and complete overhaul of the higher education system including moving towards a more multidisciplinary undergraduate education." The NCF takes this to the school level. Indian Express points out that combating climate change for instance requires a knowledge of science and manufacturing, but also of politics, sociology, economics, and other disciplines. The significance of humanities in the Fourth Industrial Revolution is shown by many research papers, says this editorial.  To avoid rote studies and memorization instead of critical thinking skills, the NCF sees room for play, activity, discovery and discussion based learning. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
India agrees to an immediate ceasefire after a call from Pakistan's head of military operations for a ceasefire. The conflict started with attack on tourism that was reviving the Kashmir economy after three decades through a terrorist attack killing 26 tourists in Phalgam, Kashmir on  April 22, 2025 in the mountains near the Pir Panjal range. 24 million tourists visited Kashmir in 2024. Indian response was swift on May 7 early morning hours attacking 18 terrorist camps inside Pakistan occupied Kashmir and inside Pakistan. India called it a act of self-defense to Pakistan sponsored state terrorism going back to 1947. What is different in this brief 4 day war is that India made it economic with efforts at IMF to make terrorism an issue for loans to Pakistan, and ending the Indus Waters Treaty on water sharing. Pakistan economy is struggling with no debt relief from China, making it turn to the IMF, a politically split population with Opposition leader Imran Khan in jail, and continued domination by the military over civilian govenrment. On May 9 drone attacks were launched from Pakistan using Turkish made drones in large numbers on cities and towns in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab. Blackouts were placed in India by May 8 in all cities in the north and in Pakistan. India responded with its own drones and missile attacks on three military airbases as the war broadened to military targets on May 10. US mediated a ceasefire through Saudis and Turkey. Earlier Saudis and Iran were in New Delhi with whom India has good relations to get a ceasefire. Mr. Trump's efforts behind the scenes secured an agreement. VP Vance had cut short an Indian trip in Jaipur on April 22. India and the US are allies in the Indo-Pacific, and India and Russia have decades of friendly relations. China now uses Pakistan as a proxy state, but does not provide the economic aid it needs, for which it has turned to the IMF.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
On the first day of the new vaccine policy on June 21, 2021, India has vaccinated 6.9 million people. India has now vaccinated 287 million people out of a population of 1.2 billion. This is a race against time as new variants caused the second wave of coronavirus in April and May of 2021 with cases peaking at over 300,000 a day.  The shortcoming of the old vaccine policy are being corrected. The entire vaccine supply process and the vaccination drive is now being handled by the federal government. Earlier during the second wave vaccine supply and the vaccination drives were under an arrangement with no clear overall responsibility. States shared responsibility with the federal government and target vaccination goals were missed, vaccine supplies were inadequate.  A similar arrangement in Germany failed and Germany's vaccination supplies were inadequate and vaccination drive stalled. This caused immense frustration in Germany in April-May 2021. Germany's troubled history before World War II led to a reliance on decentralized actions, and state governments imposed different rules in a relatively small country compared to India. This was corrected with the federal government taking on the entire responsibility for the vaccine supply and vaccination drive leading to good results today in vaccines. With India's huge population and political process of different state governments, some lacking experience in administration for a complex process, and others failing to coordinate well with the federal government, the lack of overall responsibility at the federal government posed serious risks of missing targets for vaccines and letting the coronavirus wreck the economy and public confidence. Complex negotiations with other governments in Europe and the US for vaccine manufacture in India could only be handled at the federal level. The resources and planning at the federal level were already in place in India for infrastructure and other projects, experience and setting targets in that area at the federal level could now be transferred to this task in vaccines. Somewhere in the range of 8 million vaccines a day need to be reached and sustained from August to December 2021 for India to reach the goal of vaccinated all 1.2 billion people ahead of any further attack from a third or fourth wave, say experts. This is not a choice for the federal government, it is simply something India has got to accomplish to be a healthy nation that can grow with neighbors in Europe, the US, Australia and Japan and build confidence in its Asia-Pacific region. The entire Asia-Pacific region has a lot resting on how well India achieve this goal and moves on to the next phase of assisting its neighbors in the region.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
European Union countries, Britain and the US face the risk of a resurgence of coronavirus through the Delta variant and other variants. The Delta variant detected in India is 40% to 80% more transmissible than the Alpha variant detected in the UK, with the Alpha variant 50% more transmissible than the original coronavirus that originated in Wuhan.    Virologists in Italy feel they are flying blind at this time because of the lack of genetic sequencing in Italy, Spain, France and across most European Union countries. The UK has done genetic sequencing on 27% of recent covid positive tests. The figure drops to 1% for Italy and is tiny for most of the EU countries including Spain and France. Without genetic sequencing it is hard to predict and take steps. Another problem in the EU is that the southern economies Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, Croatia are dependent on summer tourism for the economy. The UK economy can handle a delay to a full opening for 6 weeks without serious impact to the economy, says WSJ. Southern European economies can afford only short delays to full reopening. Croatia acted as a door to spread of coronavirus into central Europe when Germans and Austrians went to vacation spots in Croatia in summer 2020. This situation could be happening again in 2020 with British and other tourists visiting vacation areas in Portugal, and Germans visiting Greece and other summer tourism spots. Portugal's national health institute says the Delta variant represents 60% of new cases in the area around Lisbon based on early data. The government of Portugal is facing criticism for letting a Champions League soccer final to take place in Porto, Portugal between two English teams. Thousands of English fans watched the game at the stadium. Other problems are in relaxing of mask rules in France and Italy, last week in France and in the coming week in Italy. French nightclubs open July 9 without mask requirement. Germany is maintaining some social distancing measures and this includes mandating medical masks in closed public spaces and on public transport. Half of French, Italians, Germans are vaccinated and quarter fully vaccinated. Yet the gaps of unvaccinated people is large enough to cause serious concern of another wave. The relaxation of mask rules- the entire stadium in Budapest was packed for a recent game between Hungary and Italy for a soccer Euro 2021 game with no masks to be seen. Stadiums played a key role for the spread of the original coronavirus in Italy with a game in Bergamo, Italy, in the area near Milan. All this makes health officials concerned about the risks of still another wave of the coronavirus.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Wasn't immigration from Europe  one of the main reasons for pushing for Brexit by Brexiteers? UK left the European Union on Jan 31, 2020. So how has this changed since Brexit asks The Times of London? It may come as a surprise to know that Poles and Romanians who came to the UK before Brexit to fill low skilled jobs are are now replaced by high skilled Indians, Pakistanis, Nigerians, data from the Department of Works and Pensions suggests, and cited by The Times. And the numbers are large far exceeding by a factor of 3 the numbers before Brexit. Official data this week says The Times shows net migration hit 700,000 last year 2022 compared to 223,000 at the time of the Brexit vote. Three reasons are given. The first is that there is a surge in foreign students whose lucrative fees support British universities. Second one off schemes enabled hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Hong Kong Chinese to come to the UK. And the third the biggest reason is that the post Brexit regime issued 800,000 visas in its first year. This means that instead of less well off Europeans, more affluent Chinese, Ukrainian refugees, and better educated Indians and Pakistanis made their way to the UK. In any case a high rate of immigration took place, and one set of Eastern Europeans Ukrainians replaced another set from Poland and Romania. Brexit was essentially a serious distraction for Britain leading to three Tory governments. Had Cameron been honest and not used Brexit as a ploy to generate support the Tories could well have been replaced in a tight election after the austerity period. Instead Britain had four prime ministers and constant upheaval Cameron replaced by Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak. Ending up with the Tories and Britain in not a good place in where it matters- the economy, growth, health, education, and cost of living. Britain must now look to Labour for reviving the lives of workers and families, reviving the economy, fighting climate change, creating hope for the future. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
It is important to know the cause of 0.3% contraction in first quarter 2025 for US economy. It is says WSJ because of a 5% hit from net exports, the difference between exports and imports, as importers rushed to import more before a tariff deadline. Imports by the US increased by 42% in first quarter 2025. Some include MIchigan Governor Whitmer who supports the tariffs as a way to take back America's industrial base, build factories in the US, say the uncertainty of the way tariffs were implemented is damaging confidence in the economy. For instance could the US have excluded the EU, Japan, UK, India as allies, and focused on China.  The problem with that approach is that it would single out China. It means other nations Japan, South Korea, Germany are not investing in the US, also have used trade for unfair advantage, are not called out. This would put China in an odd position. It is better to call out all who benefited from unfair advantage including China, Germany, Japan South Korea, Taiwan, because this has more credibility, giving all a honest and fair picture that they could then look at themselves in the mirror and correct. In the short run it looks messy, the tariff methods look erratic and back and forth increasing tariffs is also messy and unruy. Yet when every major trading nation knows deep inside that US is only saying it like it is asking only for fairness in trade, it will lead it to negotiate a fair trade agreement with US. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A revolution is taking place in the lives of rural families in India. Under the Jal Jeevan Mission put forward by the prime minister clean drinking water from tap water will reach every family in India. It was launched on Aug 15, 2019 and plans to do this by 2024. The impact is huge. Out of 180 million rural families only 33 million families have clean drinking water from tap water in the country. Clean water brings life to the countryside and access through individual tap water connection brings a revolution to people's lives in a country of 1.2 billion people. This report in the Economic Times tells us what most of us do not know that with the growth in population from about 300 million after independence in 1947 to 1.2 billion today and the drought conditions in parts of the country, the per capita water availability has fallen sharply today. Dropping from 5000 cubic metres of water per capita in India in 1951 to 1545 cubic metres of water in 2011.  The infrastructure capital to be invested is 3.5 trillion rupees or $ 50 billion. $50 billion in cement, pipes, construction, pumps, equipment, wages, conservation, skill building, knowledge in water management to revive the rural economy. Hit hard by coronavirus it boosts the rural economy. The infrastructure project could be a model for other Asian, African and Latin American countries.  Cholera and other water borne diseases can never be eliminated without clean drinking water from tap water for all families in India. It means so much during this pandemic.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Was Russia better off in 2021 than after the invasion of Ukraine. Was it better for upward mobility, health, openness of the economy and growth, and standards of living. Was the US perceived as a hegemon when it also lacked control of its own companies that preferred to invest elsewhere and ignored US workers for a long time. This report in the WSJ asks whether it is not true that not just Russia, but the US, the EU, China, India, other large nations faced a world order that was in many ways difficult, not to their liking, and in some ways posed risks for their countries. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The lower oil prices in 2015 helps lower the current account deficit, which reached 7.9% in 2013, to 5% projected for 2015. Inflation is projected at 6.8%. GDP growth of 3.5% is expected for 2015. Turkey imports oil amounting to about 6% of GDP making for a large impact. Weakness is in the area of manufacturing, as Turkey's high tech exports are only 2% of manufactured exports, according to the Economist. About 1% of Turkish students have advanced computer skills. With problems in Brazil and Russia, money flowing into emerging markets is giving Turkey a second look after the emerging markets crisis in early 2014, when the lira slumped and interest rates had to be increased. The economy is recovering in 2015 from that situation. Two major beneficiaries of lower oil prices in emerging markets are India and Turkey in 2015, as both economies struggled with a large oil import bill.

LyrArc Article Gist
It took 25 years for the US to recover from the 1929 stock market disaster and the Great Depression. It took Japan 25 years to recover from the 1989 stock market collapse and the lost decades since. It is finally emerging from that period with a healthier economy and business structures. China faces a situation today of a struggling economy after years of excessively rapid growth that hurt the environment and climate and health. And the uncertainty that faced Japan after 1989 also faces China in 2024- growth is never linear over very long periods and has pull backs that could stretch for decades much too familiar for Japan. For India there are lessons to be learned from Japan's and China's experience. In environment not to risk polluting the environment as China experienced with breakneck unchecked growth, to be mindful of bringing up all sectors and parts of the population, and to manage growth so that the basic instability that resulted from excessive shift to China of manufacturing and deindustrialization in US that led to worsening trade and people to people relations between US and China is not repeated. ...