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The Liberal Party is falling behind the Conservatives by double digits because of cost of living and housing concerns. Mr. Trudeau's popularity is dimming. His government is a minority government that depends on the New Democrats for key votes in parliament. Mr. Trudeau talks about personal sacrifices on this job. Canada will elect a new government in 2025.

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Theresa May's statement that parliament bears responsibility for the Brexit impasse is seen as an attack on parliament by MP's from both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. May needs support of about 25 Labour MP's to make up for loss of Brexit hardliners, but has support of 3 MP's in the last vote in parliament. Her statement was seen as divisive and alienated all sides in parliament, the BBC reports.

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A teary Theresa May resigns as prime minister of Britain. Headlines in The Times say she had commitment but lacked flexibility. Other headlines say her attempts to pass her Brexit deals were doomed to fail from the beginning as she lacked a consensus in her own party. The Conservative party is badly divided.

This also stiffens European resolve not to negotiate further with a no-deal Brexit supporter, Mr. Boris Johnson, likely to be the new prime minister. Mr. Johnson has said the only problem with Britain going ahead and leaving the European Union without any deal negotiated is that there could be a shortage of Mars chocolate bars.

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Britain's prime minister Theresa May finally spells out some of the costs to Britain's economy in following Brexit and leaving the European Union. The EU's Barnier made it clear that Britain would not be able to choose what it wants out of the negotiations. As May put is "there will be consequences for our market access."  So far May preferred ambiguity so that she could reconcile the conflicting factions in her Conservative party. The Labor Party in the Opposition and the EU have called for clarity on the issue of Northern Ireland, with the EU saying Northern Ireland would remain part of the EU customs union, and the Labor Party's Corbyn saying the fragile Ireland peace accords must be preserved and Ireland should have an open border. May did not clarify on the Irish issue. However her new remarks clarified that much of what exists today in cooperation inside the EU would be preserved to minimize negative consequences of Brexit, and Britain would also continue to be affected by the decisions of the European Court of Justice. Barnier says he welcomes May's explicit recognition for the first time of the tradeoffs involved in doing Brexit, something the pro-Brexit faction within the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson has tried to ignore. Experts including Bank of England governor Mark Carney have stated that Brexit will leave Britain's economy poorer.   ...

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At a time when the cost of living is increasing sharply with the war in Ukraine, and at a time when taxes are going up for ordinary British people, the Sunak story of non-dom status and not paying fair share of taxes in Britain is affecting the Conservative party's popularity. 

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The Labour Party in Britain pulls the plug on further talks with the ruling Conservative government of Theresa May. No agreement could be reached on whether a customs union should be forged with the EU after Brexit, or on whether there should be a second referendum on Brexit as most Labour Party members want. Mrs. May has struggled to get her agreement negotiated with the EU passed in British parliament after trying several times, leading to most observers calling it a huge mess.

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As part of the European Union Brtiain could not shape its own trade deals since the 1970's. The current Brexit standoff leaves little option of changing this. The new Department of International Trade is unlikely to accomplish much even with 400 staffers and a new trade negotiator hired from New Zealand. Britain is likely to remain in the EU trading bloc customs area for many years under the standoff with EU. Countries will wait till Britain finalizes its trade deal with the EU under Brexit. It took Canada 7 years to achieve a trade deal with EU. 

Brexit uncertaintly, split in Conservative Party and Labour Party's agreeing to a second referendum on Brexit mean little progress on trade deals for Britain.

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Ian Jack asks if Johnson's Conservative party can deliver for Britain, can deliver for women, can deliver for climate change, can deliver for health, education and infrastructure, can deliver dignity for workers, deliver for families and children, by looking at the roots of one of its leaders. He looks at Jacob-Rees Mogg and how he sees himself in the bewildering mix of English social classes in St Pancras neighborhood of London where he comes from.

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Changes in Eastern Europe, first with the departure of Sebastian Kurz after a second scandal. The Greens party in the coalition insisted that he resign. In the Czech Republic the government of prime minister Andrej Babis was voted out of office. A liberal-conservative three party coalition won 28% of the vote, and the Pirates and Mayors party won 16% of the vote. The two alliances won 108 seats in the 200 member lower house. Babis headed a minority government of ANO party, Social Democrats and supported by Communist party,(ANO is yes in Czech language), with many scandals, and opposed EU's climate change policies, says DW.com. 

With the changes in Austria this offers new opportunities for a closer European Union as Eastern Europe changes.

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This editorial in the WSJ says the resignation and downfall of Boris Johnson in Britain comes from the dissembling that resulted in loss of confidence in his Conservative party, but also in a larger sense from the failure of his agenda to revive Britain.  Not much has happened in the promise to invest in and revive the failing economy and social setting in the north of England. Inflation was hitting British households hard with inflation at close to 9% in 2022. Home electricity and natural gas prices spiked 54% in April and are expected to go up 40% in October. Johnson raised the payroll tax 2.5% to fund the NHS. Corporate tax rate was to go up to 26% from 19%. Green taxes helped energy prices go up, and Johnson did not cut the consumption tax or green taxes on gasoline or diesel or household energy says the WSJ, and kept the household income tax brackets the same even with inflation so households would see a large tax increase. In this sense Boris Johnson with his exuberant personal style and enthusiasm promised a lot after taking Britain out of the European Union with Brexit. Yet as the months dragged on and after the worst of the pandemic found there was little he could show that would convince Britons of a brighter future. Not for the North of England, not for Britons in other parts of England and in London, and with high inflation and lacking the investment that could change Britain, not much to show for infrastructure improvement or plans for the future. The dissembling and eroding credibility led to the situation that only half way through his term in office his absolute majority in the 2019 election could not keep Boris Johnson in office, and the Conservative party was losing the confidence of the British people.  ...

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Edouard Philippe resigns as prime minister as he begins a new phase for the 2022 presidential elections. His popularity increased to 50% for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic in France, exceeding Macron's 38% in June. Mr. Philippe won the race for New Havre in recent municipal elections in which Mr. Macron's party failed to win a single large city, making its future uncertain. The Ecology party recently split from Mr. Macron's party in parliament. In 3 years in office Mr. Philippe maintained his independence and did not join the Macron party. Mr. Philippe followed a conservative path in government. His replacement is Mr Castex, mayor of a small town Prades in southern France.

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Theresa May faces a no confidence vote from within her own Conservative Party. The head of the 1922 committee of Conservative party members of parliament said he had letters of protest from 48 MP's opposing May's Brexit deal, the number needed to call for a vote whether she should remain in office. May needs 158 votes to win. If she does not gain this number of votes a new Conservative leader will be elected prime minister. May's Brexit deal negotiated with the EU does not have the support of enough members of parliament for a vote.

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As the British parliament prepares to vote on Brexit deal put forward by prime minister Theresa May, Joanna Sugden summarizes what is expected as the next step if parliament rejects it.  Why are a faction Conservative members opposed to it? There is the Irish backstop which they oppose. Keeping open the border between the two Irelands- Northern Ireland as part of Britain and Ireland as a EU country is important to preserve peace achieved through the Good Friday Agreement between the Catholic and Protestant communities.May wants to keep the border open. Far right Conservatives see this as keeping Britain connected to the EU in some way which they oppose. They stubbornly hold onto this view. Add to this the opposition from the Remain campaign which sees leaving the EU as bad for Britain's economic future. Some Leave supporters now see the dangers of Brexit, especially leaving with no deal made with the EU. Most of the Labour Party members fall into this group. What happens if parliament rejects May's deal by a small margin? The deal would be renegotiated with the EU to tweak it for more support. What happens if parliament rejects it with a huge margin? This would result in several options. May could call a general election. Britain could have a second referendum on Brexit. Or in a chaotic situation Britain could leave the European Union without a deal altogether, something everyone wants to avoid because of the disruptions it would cause. May is using this risk as  a way to persuade reluctant MP's but it may not work.     ...

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A EU draft document that details the terms for Brexit and says Northern Ireland would remain part of the EU customs union has revived the debate on the future of Northern Ireland under Brexit. This remains an untackled issue in the negotiations. A hard border with Ireland would threaten a fragile peace in Northern Ireland. This brings up the thorny issues in the Brexit vote that were not considered during the referendum for a simple "yes" or "no" vote. Labor party favors the EU customs union membership and the Conservative hardliners now have to face up to the problems that were not really addressed in the referendum vote. Theresa May's thin majority in parliament also place her in a difficult situation now that the Labor party has supported the EU customs union.

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After a decade of austerity and the financial crisis of overextended banks, the deep recession starting in 2009, and worsening inequality with lack of infrastructure development, Britain finally shifts to larger government spending. The spending planned by Labour and Conservative parties in Britain charts a different future for health, education and infrastructure development from that of the last decade. The public supports this. Conservatives plan $128 billion of new spending, Labour party plans to spend even more. This comes after centre right parties such as the Republicans under Mr. Trump in the U.S. shifted to heavy spending on infrastructure. The Democrats under Obama failed to push for higher spending in traditional working class areas leaving open a gap that Mr. Trump has since used to attract working class Democrats to his side. In Britain Labour under Corbyn has pushed for larger spending on infrastructure, health and education. This is setting a new trend. This report in the WSJ shows that in this situation it is new politicians who replaced earlier politicians in their parties- Mr. Trump displacing Bush, Johnson displacing Cameron and May, Corbyn and McDonnell displacing Blair and Brown, that are initiating thsi trend. The experts at the IMF and the central banks are only now beginning to say this is a good idea. For a decade the mantra of economic experts at these central banks was in favor of austerity, even in the face of massive misallocation in capital markets.   ...

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Three members of parliament from Britain's Conservative Party who backed a second referendum on Brexit to cancel Britain's exit from the European Union left the party to join eight members of the Labour Party who left the Labour party earlier. They formed a new group in parliament called the Independent Group. This narrows Theresa May's majority in parliament to 8 members and increases chances for a new election. Several members of May's cabinet are threatening to quit if Britain leaves the UK without a deal.

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Spain's 2015 general election leads to the likelihood of a coalition from the centre right or the centre left parties. The conservative Partido Popular lost its parliamentary majority and won 123 seats as the largest party in the new parliament. The centre right have 163 seats, the centre left have 159 seats, leading to an inconclusive result with both sides seeking to form a new coalition government. Years of austerity policies under prime minister Rajoy and high unemployment of about 20% hurt the ruling party, even though the economy has recovered from the worst effects of the housing crisis and is growing at 3%.

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This picture of Jacob Rees Moog the head of the no-deal Brexit faction in the Conservative Party is seen widely on Twitter. It gives a sense of Mr. Moog indifferent to all the chaos around him serenely confident that no-deal Brexit is all that counts, down to this stretched out pose in the House of Commons. 

This picture also appears on BBC News and is described as one showing an indifferent elite that cares little for what is happening outside of their world.

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A look at the role that David Cameron played in the Brexit vote. Cameron did this by promising to hold a referendum to assuage hard line Tories within his Conservative Party in Britain who feared that the right wing Independence Party of Nigel Farage would cut into the Tory vote and hand the 2015 election over to the Labour Party. Cameron made the pledge in 2013. The Brexit vote referendum happened in June 2016 with a slight margin for the "Leave" vote as voters shifted to an anti-establishment vote, and a wave of immigration from Africa and Arab countries in conflicts into Europe created fears of uncontrolled immigration. Both were factors that had little to do with Britain's place in Europe over decades in post war Europe, and not permanent shifts in sentiment. Cameron agreed because he thought the would lead to a result favoring the Remain Vote to stay in the European Union. Cameron badly miscalculated leading to the mess Britain is in today with no clear path forward and negative effects on the economy of Britain. The Labour Party now favors a second referendum as voter sentiment again shifts following the failure of the Theresa May Conservative government to lead in the way forward, and splits in the Conservative Party. Immigration from Arab countries and Africa is now restricted and down to a small trickle. The problems generated by Brexit for the economy, Northern Ireland, business uncertainty, and second thoughts among pro-Brexit supporters, are leading to a rethink of the course set by the referendum based on a temporary shift in sentiment. ...

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There is serious lack of depth in leadership in the Tory party today. Names proposed in The Guardian for Tory leaders after the July 4 election should Rishi Sunak have to resign are clearly short of what Britain needs in leadership. It depends on which Tory MP can hold on to his seat. Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Kim Badennoch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, all lack what is needed to lead the Conservatives on July 5, 2024. This has been true all through the last two decades.  David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Liz Truss who preceded Sunak for most of the last decade were also lacking in leadership. The decade wasted with Nigel Farage and David Cameron, Boris Johnson trying to get Britain out of the European Union has hurt Britain. Today most Britons want to go back to a Britain that is growing as part of the EU and Europe. 

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Britain's parliament voted Jan. 15, 2019 to reject the Brexit deal crafted by Theresa May with the European Union by a huge margin of 230 votes. The vote was 432 to 202, with 118 Conservative MP's voting against along with the entire Labour Party members. 

If a no-confidence vote by the opposition Labour Party is defeated as expected with 118 Conservative MP's backing the government in that vote, the uncertainty and rancour and bitterness will continue. May will look for ways to tweak the deal to get it through parliament. If this fails Britain could march out of the EU with no deal on March 29, 2019, or the date is extended. She opposes extending the date or having a second referendum.

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To increase the appeal of the Conservative party and help it stage a comeback, party leader and now prime minister Cameron, made a pledge not to reduce the budgets for health care and the National Health Service. By sticking to keeping this pledge Cameron is committing to much deeper cuts in government agencies, public sector jobs, and other areas. Carl Emmerson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, says that because of this the cuts elsewhere will rise to a much deeper 25%. Phillip Cowley, a political scientist, says that the NHS is a totemic issue with the British people, and helped Cameron get the top job, as the Labor party could not hit the Conservatives on the issue of the National Health Service.

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The Economist magazine looks at the mess that Brexit has become and reflects on what this means. The first explanation is that Britons always loathed the evolution of the common market into the European Union. The second that Brexit was simply a result of a simmering civil war between the successful metropolitan  liberal parts of Britain and the provincial conservative parts of Britain. A third one is seen as equally plausible that the country's leadership has failed, that its model of leadership is coming apart.  It says the problem is the chumocracy with David Cameron made the poor decision to go for a referendum on the EU without thinking this through carefully, taking risks with the future of Britain for the sake of narrow party interests. 51% and you are out of the EU was never a fair option when major decisions of such type are handled with great care, even confronted with less momentous decisions other countries use two stage votes or call for super majorities. Basically the whole referendum was flawed to begin with and the people making the decision gambled with the future of Britain and the British economy.  The Economist magazine says the current candidates for Tory leadership, are all inadequate, one even suggesting that Britain should not balk at leaving the EU with no deal because it would create a temporary shortage of Mars bars. It looks at the leaders class in Britain as says it preserves many of the failures of the old establishment by being introverted and self-serving. It sees less expertise and more bluff in their backgrounds in public relations, journalism (Cameron, Johnson) and lighter experience (May as analyst), and sees a singular lack of self restraint because it believes it comes out merit based selection compared to the old establishment. What the Economist magazine sees is meritocracy transformed into crony capitalism for Blair in Labour party and Cameron, Osborne in the Conservative Party. One of the problems it says is the erosion of other ways to enter the leadership ranks from a range of places- business, unions, local government, working class talent, and other places- something that existed in the early postwar years to the sixties. Gradually a shift is taking place already to create new options and broaden the places from which leaders can emerge for broader more effective selection. ...

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The Guardian follows key speeches and developments at the Labour party conference in Liverpool. This comes as the Labour party leads the Conservatives in the MRP poll by 12 points 45 percentage points to 33 points. Labour is favored in its approach to the cost of living crisis and climate change. Keir Starmer is steadily closing the credibility gap created by previous Labour administrations on policy for families and workers and conviction which has given Boris Johnson and Liz Truss an advantage in the past. Mr. Biden has faced and overcome a similar problem created by Democratic administrations in the past of a lack of conviction to help families and workers in the US.

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Prime minister Johnson of Britain is calling for a general election on December 12. This will be debated in parliament on October 28, and is expected to be rejected a third time. Mr. Johnson faces opposition from the Labour Party which wants to delay the election till it is certain that there is no Brexit without an acceptable deal with the European Union. Mr. Johnson heads a minority government that depends on the support of the Democratic Unionist party, the DUP, of Ireland. He also dismissed 23 Conservative rebel MP's from the Conservative Party headed by Mr. Hammond, a former finance minister under Theresa May who are leery of Mr. Johnson's willingness to go with a no-deal Brexit, if parliament does not back him. This puts Mr. Johnson 45 votes short of a majority in parliament. The new deal Mr. Johnson negotiated with the EU was done with concessions on Ireland and an open border, which was rejected by the Unionist party of Ireland. This deal passed in parliament but was rejected on its short timetable of less than a week giving MP's little time to look at the details.  The Labour party is also divided on going into an election before it is ready because it is behind by 10 points in the polls.  The reason the Johnson deal was initially passed in parliament was because 18 Labour MP's decided to support it pursuing a strategy of getting it rejected by passing amendments during final passage.    ...