LyrArc Article Gist
The astounding fact in this French FR24 report on the Paris Climate Change Agreement and country carbon emissions show that China's emissions accelerated to rise 3 fold in 2015 to about 12 billion tons of carbon emissions from about 4 billion in 2000. US remains at about 6 billion. India is at about 3 billon tons of carbon emissions, about where China was in 2000 when it had about 4 billion tons of carbon emissions. This is shown in the graph on carbon emissions from FR24. The US, European Union graph curves on tons of carbon emissions since 2000 are all flat or declining, India rising slowly from a small base, China's curve is rising straight up from a large enough base at an unbelievable and dangerous rate. What has happened and is it getting worse? China's economy expanded too quickly as globalization was accelerated by banks, and business in the US and Europe, and by the Chinese governments at the local level and the state level. This had negative consequences for US, Europe and China. The too fast growth in China at rates of 10-15% based solely on False GDP indicators that did not take into account damage to the environment and workers was that it hurt manufacturing and working class in US and Europe and contaminated the environment. This was not like growth of Japan in 1960-1980, a smaller country in the way it affected the US and European working classes. Hyper Growth at 10-15% of a large country with 1 billion people compressed over a short period, is cited by Greg Ip in the WSJ as the cause of the negative impact on America.  It hurt China through pollution of rivers and land at an accelerated pace. It hurt China as trade with US and Europe became unsustainable with the loss of manufacturing in the US and Europe leading to a trade war. From these graphs of emissions it now appears that the 3 fold rise in carbon emissions from about 4 billion tons in 2000 to about 12 billion tons in 2015 is the result of unregulated business activity of all those who preferred to push hyper growth in China purely for reasons of profit such as investment banks and corporations in US, Europe, and state or local companies in China.  This has also aggravated inequality in US, Europe and China, and hurt rural populations. Xi Jinping is attempting to correct this in China, Biden is trying to correct this in the US, and Scholz will now attempt to correct this in Germany and the European Union. It is also to be noted that China in 2000-2015 did not have the benefit of the newer technologies that India now has access to, which is why India says it is able to reduce carbon emissions per each unit of GDP by 35% from 2005 levels by 2030. It is this efficiency in producing units of GDP with newer and newer technologies that China lacked in its period of hyper growth 2000-2015 that now looks to have hurt China- with overflow of highly polluting steel mills and other factories which it would prudently and wisely have cut back on. Looking back at this period one sees the wholesale transfer of highly polluting plants in Germany being sold and put up in China, a poor developing country in 2000. Was this a good decision for Germany or for China? In this way the banks and large corporations in the US and Europe who use economic indicators that are limited such as dollar profits, without overall indicators that include negative effect damage to the environment that requires huge investments to correct, problems of trade wars leading to political conflicts, are acting like a person walking blindly in one direction.  With some foresight China and all its trading partners would have done better with slower but more careful Chinese growth of 7-8% that would have better met societal goals in US, Europe and China, avoiding high carbon emissions segments of industries from Day 1. Jinping is doing this in China, and Biden is doing this in the US- cutting out highly polluting factories and segments of industries- but in a climate of mutual distrust, which could have benefitted the world when conducted in a climate of cooperation and trust. The pandemic made the situation even more difficult. Power shortages in factories and blackouts in Chinese cities have led to a reversal of policies on use of coal in China months before the COP26 Glasgow conference and G-20 summit leaving a huge gap. Without the presence of Xi Jinping at COP26 in Glasgow and with Chinese participation uncertain significant progress on climate change is elusive. Estimates by US Renewable Energy Agency is that it would cost $131 trillion to pay for limiting emissions to global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Some major share of this cost can be attributed to the increase from about 4 billion tons in 2000 of carbon emissions in China to about 12 billion tons in 2015, increase by 3 times. One can clearly see from this sudden jump in carbon emissions in China that policies of hyper growth with unregulated polluting industries adding to GDP growth figures was bad policy for China, bad policy for US, and Europe, even if it offered temporary profits for individual companies. India has the advantage of learning from this experience and charting its own wiser course as a partner with US, Europe and Japan and by Modi's vigorous efforts in renewable energy. The lesson- look at all indicators of progress, including climate and society, not just economic indicators in profit or dollar terms, take the tough decisions early in regulating polluting companies and industry segments, and bring full and active public participation with transparent access to data on climate damaging activity in real time because climate and the environment we live in free of polluting substances belongs to all the people, belongs to all life on the planet from trees to animals and birds, not companies that can choose to ignore it. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China has banned coal imports from Australia in response to Australian request for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus and criticism of China's handling of Hong Kong protests. 

China imports about a quarter of its coal imports from Australia. Yet this has impacted China because of a rebound in the economy and a very cold winter in 2020. This means there is a shortage of electricity in some parts of China. 

China imports 80% of its iron ore, with 60% coming from Australia and prices of iron ore have almost doubled in the past year. Last year China imported over 1 billion tons of iron ore.

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China's population is aging quickly as a result of the one child policy and better medical care. The population of people 15-59 years will decline by 65 million or 5.5% by 2030, according to UN projections. China's retirement age is surprisingly low 60 for men and 55 for women for civil servants and white collar workers. The population will age faster and at lower income levels than in South Korea or Taiwan.

LyrArc Article Gist
Reports from automotive experts in Stuttgart show German car companies and suppliers are not well prepared for the competition in electric cars. Their leadership may not be taken for granted in electric car world causing threats to jobs, tax revenue and growth. It was in a Stuttgart garage that Daimler and Maybach invented the internal combustion engine 136 years ago in 1884.

The Institute for Employment Research of the German government prediction is that if electric cars make up 23% of all cars sold in 2035 the country would lose 20 billion euros in output, 0.6 percentage of GDP, and 13% of its 870,000 auto industry workforce. This is because China is emerging as a formidable competitor in electric cars and has invested heavily in this sector.

As in broad band infrastructure shown in a recent report in Lyrarc, Germany has failed to invest enough in electric cars.

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China Investment Corp., China's sovereign wealth fund, and its investment strategies. Efforts to separate investments in China's state banks from CIC. Changes made in 2011 resulted in the formation of CIC International, separate from the Central Huijin unit which is focussed on investments inside China. CIC controls both. CIC was started in 2007 to get better returns on China's foreign exchange reserves which upto that point were mostly in U.S. Treasury securities. At the end of 2010 CIC had assets of $410 billion. China's foreign exchange reserves are about $3.2 trillion. CIC initial funding of $200 billion was allocated with half going to investments overseas, and the rest in China's state banks. A new $30 billion in funding for CIC from the People's Bank of China will go to overseas investment.

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Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier says Germany expects a shallower recession. GDP in 2020  is expected to be down by 5.8% much lower than the 10-15% in other countries. Exports in June were up by 15% to China and down by 20% to the U.S. Economies of Spain and the UK are expected to see twice the decline in GDP in 2020. Italy and Germany are seeing a increase in manufacturing output, Spain and France a decline. 

Still Germany remains exposed to other trading partners than China, such as the U.S. and Britain, total exports are expected to be down 12% in 2020. About 11% of workers are using short term work subsidies to stay at home. Cases of the virus are surging in France and Spain. In Germany there is a surge but it is slowing since last week. Mr. Altmaier thinks Germany can avoid a second lockdown.

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China's economy expanded at 0.4% growth rate in the second quarter of 2020, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. It is not just the lockdowns that are dampening consumer sentiment.  US and EUropean demand for manufactured goods from Taiwan, South Korea and China is shrinking.

Youth unemployment is high with 20% of people 16 to 24 years without work. Some experts say the youth unemployment is increasing because companies are showing less interest in hiring and training new workers, or in investing in the future.

LyrArc Article Gist
The European Commission hits Google with a $4.3 billion fine for antitrust violations on the Android operating system used in smartphones.

The company that created Android was founded by Andy Rubin and Rich Milner in 2003, and acquired by Google in 2005 for $50 million. This article gives a timeline for Android's development. The original Android went through modifications after Apple developed a keyboardless smartphone and introduced it in Jan. 2007. The original Android was a keyboard system like that of Blackberry. Google modified the system to come up with its own smartphone in September 2008 made by HTC in China called HTC Dream. Within 2 years in 2010 Android was used in 33 million smartphones surpassing Nokia at 31 million devices. From Jan. 2007 to 2010 in the space of 3 years the Android system changed the world of mobile phones. 

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India's modernization efforts for ports terminals and logistics looking ahead to 2047- key to Vikshit Bharat Developed India. For the US and EU this is key to the goal of reducing concentration of manufacturing in China. This goal goes beyond the DJT administration tariffs on China of 48%. It is about common sense and reason not to get stuck with importing everything from one country in Asia, not Japan, not China, but spreading the production. The reason this gets concentrated is that one country gets an overwhelming advantage and only state or national policy of US or EU can change that which is what the DJT administration is doing. India is the only nation that has the potential to make this happen over the next 10 years to 2035.

LyrArc Article Gist
The contrast between modernizing, developing East and South Asia ( from Mumbai to Shanghai) with war torn desolate West Asia (from Tehran and Baghdad to Kabul and Islamabad) is so striking today that it is something to reflect upon for wisdom and understanding. UAE support for Sudan's RSF Rapid Strike Force and Saudi support for the military - fracturing of Sudan, errors piled on errors led to the civil war in Sudan. A civil war in a country neighboring Saudi Arabia just across the Red Sea. Saudis and UAE were on opposite sides briefly after UAE pulled out of Sudan, UAE acting in this way to object against Saudis requesting US sanctions on UAE.  Once close partners have moved apart as they spread their influence in different conflicts in the Middle East.  This has not created a region that can grow economically without the disruptions of conflict in the way other parts of Asia have emerged to modernize the countries as in Taiwan, Korea, China and India. In neighboring Pakistan another conflict has emerged as partners split, with looming conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Yemeni Houthis are in conflict with the US and affect the Persian Gulf shipping lanes.  Iran with it's pursuit of weapons programs and nuclear weapons is using capital that is badly needed to improve the economic situation on arms buildup for the regime and for allies in Lebanon and Yemen, leading to protests and crisis. In this way the Middle East has failed to use oil wealth to modernize the entire region. Much of it was wasted in Iraq and now in Iran by policies that led to war and regional conflicts not modernization and technological transformation that has happened in Asia. The US has inadvertently becoming a partner to this as when the Obama administration helped fund Iran's economic rebuilding which was instead used to fund the military, and before that the Reagan administration support for Iraqi socialist ideology regime. The challenge for China was how to modernize after the Japanese invasion and civil war. In Korea it was how to modernize after the civil war. In India it is how to modernize with a smaller neighboring country Pakistan promoting terrorism and wars now with China's support. In Asia all these challenges were and are being met to steadily and persistently modernize to European standards with a singleminded focus and determination to meet the aspirations of the people with the US business working alongside Taiwanese, Korean, Chinese, and Indian governments and private industry. In West Asia various ideological (Iraq), military (Pakistan), religious Shiite (Iran), religious + modernizing (Saudi +UAE) with erratic leaders and little representation of the people, has destroyed the tranquillity of the region and destroyed democratic forms of government, destroyed bottom up education and health of the population except for priviliged groups in countries in the region of West Asia. Involvement of US and Europe or Russia in West Asia has led to distintegration of Soviet Union (Boris Yeltsin) and deindustrialization of US and Europe (Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama administrations) with business shipping out manufacturing to China while wars engaged the attention of American and European elites in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan. The entire west Asian scene for 1950-2030 has been a disaster, one massive disaster for all involved. The contrast with East Asia and South Asia reminds one of the words from Robert Frost of New England in Mowing- that reflects on the enduring value of honest labour. "My long scythe whispered to the ground. What was it it whispered? It was no dream of the gift of idle hours, or easy gold at the hand of fay or elf: anything less would have seemed too weak to the earnest love that laid the swale in rows. The fact is the sweetest dream that labour knows. My long scythe whispered and left the hay to make." ...

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With a credit led expansion, and credit flowing as rapidly as in 2009, China faces some difficult choices in 2010. Inflation's annual rate rose to 4.4% in October 2010 from 3.6% in September. China's CPI target is 3%. October 2010 saw an additional $89 billion of new loans, and China is floating on a sea of credit. The question is how econmic growth can be maintained once this slows.

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Andy Grove makes this passionate plea for the dignity of workers in America in 2010. It is worth reading in 2020 what this founder of Intel Corp and pioneering spirit of Silicon Valley has to say. Andy Grove of Intel says there is something seriously wrong when the unemployment rate in the Bay Area is higher than the 9.7% national average for the USA. American companies have added jobs like crazy in Asia, but things are sputtering back home. Hon Hai has 800,000 employees and makes most of the electronic and computer products for American companies. Grove says startups are not the answer, unless they scale up and create jobs the way Intel did starting back in 1968, with a $3 million capital infusion by investors. The move from the first production model to mass production is critical, as companies hire thousands of people. Innovation and scaling up have to go together. He makes his point clearly by pointing out that Apple has 25,000 employees. For every Apple employee there are 10 employees in China working on Apple iMacs, iPods, iPhones. And he adds that the same 10 to 1 relationship applies to other U.S. tech companies. And here Grove asks the tough question by first posing an answer. He says it sounds like- no big deal, we keep the high paying jobs, we keep most of the profits, but what kind of society are we going to have with highly paid professional workers and lots of people unemployed? And he doesn't mention that there are a lot more young people unemployed. He says the US has become very inefficient at creating tech jobs, and it would be a great mistake not to act decisively early on. And adds that the investments in such areas as solar power and electric car batteries have to be made early on to maintain leadership in these areas. Grove faults academics like Alan Blinder and others who say loss of manufacturing jobs and whole industries was no big deal. The U.S. has forgotten the value of manufacturing jobs. He wants to see America focus on jobs and rebuild its industrial base. And less of transferring engineering knowhow and new technologies overseas, technology that can help bring innovation and scaling up of factories at home. In his view individual companies doing their own thing, in a misguided fashion that jobs don't matter, is not the answer to the situation we face. The industrial economies of Asia, China at the present day, have focussed on jobs and technology, and scaled up. Grove reminds readers of the situation in America in 1932, when jobless veterans demonstrating outside the White House in large numbers were dispersed by soldiers with live ammunition and fixed bayonets. This makes him shudder at the very thought of it, and brings back memories of his early years in Hungary, as a young man in 1956. Are we listening? ...

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A directive from the Central Committee of the CCP, China's Communist Party is shown in this report in the WSJ that requires strengthening the work in corporate governance of the United Front Work Departments. This applies to foreign companies according to this directive in September 2020. This report says the European Chamber of Commerce in China has said that "this would have a considerable impact on business sentiment, and could lead foreign companies to reconsider future and even current investments in China."

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1.1 million EVs were sold in US in 2024, compared to 1.4 million hybrids. Hybrids have made a comeback as sales of electric cars are slowing in US in 2024. Constraints being lack of enough charging stations, price of electric cars still high, driving range limited before recharge. Hybrid car sales are surging helping Toyota after a too cautious entry into EV's. Now the Biden administration is looking at the targets and how to make the transition smoother. Toyota is pushing back on strict environmental rules that expect 67% of cars to be electric by 2032.  The 2021 executive order by president Biden was for 50% target by 2030 and this included hybrids.  The gradual shift would make it less costly for the public to replace the cars and help first time buyers wanting to try it out do this with hybrids as an option. As a quick guide 12000 pounds of carbon dioxide for global warming are given out by gasoline only cars, half or 6000 pounds by hybrids like Toyota's, and half again 3000 pounds of carbon dioxide by all electric like BYD China's or Tesla/GM/VW. The actual numbers are confirmed by Dept of Energy 2022, and MIT 2019 studies- 2727 pounds all electric, 6898 pounds hybrid, and 12594 pounds all gasoline. ...

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The prospect for increased consumer spending in China are not as strong as in the US. The increasing cost of living and the general uncertainty following the pandemic and release from covid restrictions mean that the average Chinese person is less inclined to spend. Savings pool is also smaller estimated at savings accumulated of $425 million during the pandemic years 2020-2022 compared to the US savings accumulation of $2.3 trillion in 2020 to 2021. US public also received cash payments which supported spending, and China by comparison had no cash payments.

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Improvement in the managing of India's trade deficit with China. Merchandise exports from India to China increased from $11.93 billion in 2014-2015 to $21.6 billion in 2021-2022, an increase of 78% over the last 6 years. Imports from China from $60.41 billion in 2014-15 to $94.6 billion in 2021-2022. The trade deficit with China during 2021-2022 is at $73.31 billion compared to $44.03 billion in 2020-2021. Most of the goods imported from India were in equipment and intermediate parts to meet the needs of electronics, telecom and power sectors in India. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Apple relies on Chinese suppliers for about 90% of its products. So reliant is Apple on China that it is slow to make changes to adapt to president Biden's policies for a new US Asian Economic Framework that builds new supply chains. By contrast Samsung has largely stayed out of China using supply chain manufacturing in Vietnam and other countries. India and Vietnam are major alternatives and only India can offer the well trained workforce and supplies of land, labour, incentives and facilities that China offers. This makes Apple a laggard in the changes that are happening today to supply chains bringing manufacturing closer to home and making products in countries allied to the US in Asia. This includes South Korea, Japan, India and Vietnam as production hubs for parts and assembly of advanced technology products. Apple is only now beginning the task of building supply chains outside China and returning manufacturing to the US which will bring back US technological leadership by 2030, American policy set by president Biden. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China adopts a two child policy nationwide in October 2015, abandoning a one child policy adopted in 1980. Experts had warned for years of a policy that would lead to fewer young people, and a rapidly aging society. UN forecasts show China will have about 400 million people over the age of 60 in 2030, 25% of the population in 2030, compared to 14% today if current trends continued. Growth of elderly people would burden the pension and health care systems. The birth rate of 1.4 children per woman is lower than in the U.S. today.

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The U.S. is keen on rebuilding its manufacturing now that the pandemic has exposed the weakness in depending on outside sources of manufacturing. After decades of job losses that hurt millions of workers and ripped apart the social fabric of America, this also left America bereft of the very ideals of opportunity for all on which the country was founded. This story by Asa Fitch and Luis Santiago in WSJ shows how America which produced 75% of the world's chips in 1990 when China's participation was negligible or non existent, made only 12% of the world's chips and semiconductors that power computers and smartphones in 2020. China's ascent only began as recently  in 2010 under a state model that targeted particular industries as Taiwan and South Korea had done before. America's failure to protect its technology led to the situation today. As this report points out Intel is the major American manufacturer of chips and it has a role to play in bringing back production and technology base to the U.S. ...

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Wuhan residents are able to leave the city in China for the first time on April 7, 2020, with masks on.

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Indian exports to China declined in the covid pandemic years when China experienced little or no growth. This has worsened the trade deficit, yet this is temporary. Imports have worsened with Chinese dumping of products into the country. This should not alter India's policy of building close trade and investment relations with the US and the European Union as its main partners. This is also consistent with the prime minister's Atman Nirbhar Bharat policy. The author of this report in Hindustan Times says policy should integrate India with China and Factory Asia, yet this ignores India's growth trajectory as it is only now building up momentum and will for the next decade see the kind of growth Japan and China made in their peak growth period, even as China slows down and forms a smaller part of the global supply chain. US policy is for India to form the major part of the supply chain replacing China at some point as the leading supplier, even though it is moving gradually to get there. India should make policy as Modi has done for 2030, then 2047, and reach its own potential acting in concert with US and EU. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The government of China increased allocation of funds to build low-income housing from 780 billion yuan in 2010 to 1.3 trillion yuan ($198 billion) for 2011. The target is to build 10 million units of subsidized housing in 2011, up from the 5.9 million units started in 2010.

LyrArc Article Gist
China raises the inflation target from 3% to 4% in December 2010, accepting some of the inflationary pressures in the Chinese economy.

LyrArc Article Gist
BBC looks at the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 that allocates waters of 6 rivers. Waters of three rivers in the east going to India, and 80% of waters of three western rivers including the Indus river going to Pakistan. Both countries are required to share waters data to manage agriculture. India is upstream for these rivers.  In the same way China is upstream of the river Brahmaputra in India and is building dams in Tibet to control flow of water downstream to India. There is no treaty for the Brahmaputra between India and China as China has occupied Tibet since 1950's and acquired Aksai Chin in the Kashmir region from Pakistan. Before 1950 for ten centuries Tibet region was a distant land mostly unreachable from China and China was never in control of Tibet. Kashmir region for 15 out of 18 centuries since 100 BC was a land of Vedic, Buddhist Shiva cultures. For China the occupation of Tibet on the borders of India creates a situation that is not sustainable for long and stretches resources at a time when India is rapidly building the same level of infrastructure on its side of the border. Chinese people in the provinces bordering Tibet have shown little interest in moving to the vastly different high country of Tibet. At some point in history not too distant by 2050, China (and Japan) will revert to its Buddhist religion and culture and with respect for Buddhist culture see Sarnath, Kushinagar, and Bodh Gaya more as sacred pilgrimage places in India, a common heritage with India to be treasured and revered. Something the Europeans and Americans cannot comprehend, the depth and breath of Vedic Buddhist and Shiv culture in Asia. ...