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Politics in Britain as Britain prepares for a general election. The UKIP party polls 13 percent and Conservatives 32 percent and only an alliance could beat the Liberals and Labour, Greens combined. So why is Boris Johnson not embracing UKIP and Farage. Boris Johnson top adviser Cummings is said to have kept Farage to a minimum in display during the EU elections, causing resentment. Farage has doubts about the Conservatives and has rejected an alliance. Conservatives see him as playing populist politics and having little interest in the Conservative Party's ideas, somewhat like a Salvini in Italy or Orban in Hungary. Conservatives see Farage as preventing them appealing to moderates.  Boris Johnson hopes to work out new spending to support working class voters in an effort to win broader support for the Conservatives. He also hopes he can go back to voters saying only he could deliver Brexit if given a solid mandate, in dealing with the EU and in dealing with parliament.   ...

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British prime minister, Boris Johnson, who succeeded Theresa May, is bringing in Dominic Cummings as a key adviser. Cummings ran the campaign for Leave in Britain's 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union. Cummings now joins Johnson in trying to tackle getting Britain out of the EU in 3 months by an October 31, 2019 deadline. Cummings is also the man he will rely on if a general election ensues following its loss of support in parliament. At present there is only a 3 vote majority for Johnson's government in parliament and lack of support from moderates in the ruling Conservative party.

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Theresa May, Britain's Home Secretary in the Cameron government, is a candidate for prime minister with the planned resignation of David Cameron by the fall of 2016. May was first elected to parliament in 1997 from Maidenhead, a town west of London. She was educated at Oxford University, worked in financial services and the Bank of England, before entering politics. She is known for hard work, a direct approach, and candor on policy issues. During a annual party convention she told Conservative party members that "our base is too narrow, and so occasionally are our sympathies," adding that people called Conservatives as the "nasty party." This was the period when Blair's Third Way was popular and Labor Party was in power. A daughter of a clergy man, she presents a rather austere image but reassuring in turbulent times with a down to earth and patient manner.  Her sports hero is a cricketer Geoffrey Boycott, known for taking long patient batting stands on the cricket  grounds- something Britain needs as it faces long and difficult negotiations with the European Union.  During the EU referendum she supported Cameron and the Stay campaign but quietly, so that she can be seen as the Unity candidate for the deeply divided Conservative Party. On immigration  she was as Home Secretary responsible for one of the difficult issues of the Brexit campaign- with net immigration at 330,000 in 2015 exceeding the 100,000 target set by Cameron. That she retains confidence from all segments of the party, as well as her education, experience, and resilience, may provide some of the "calm and composed" manner that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for in the Brexit negotiation. ...

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After Macron and Merkel flatly reject Britain's appeal for direct talks, Mr. Boris Johnson says it is now looking "very, very likely" that Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement. Johnson said this was a potentially "wonderful" outcome. Both sides want to be seen as not responsible for the failure of the talks. The stumbling bloc is the adherence to EU rules which Britain rejects as infringing on its sovereignty, and EU's fears of Britain relaxing its environmental and other rules to gain unfair competitive advantage in business.

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There is a sense from Remainers and Brexiters in the Conservatives and in Labour that Brexit is "acting as a drag on UK growth and limiting its potential" after the pandemic and inflation. Senior members of both parties are meeting in Oxfordshire including David Lamy of Labour and Michael Gove of the Conservatives, and the heads of banks and large business. Gove and Boris Johnson led the campaign for Brexit, and Gove is now interested in ensuring Brexit is not viewed as a failure in the long term. The Office of Budget. Responsibility says Brexit will reduce Britain's per capita GDP  by 4%, over the 15 years from 2016. Labour sees it as a threat to any future Labour government to leave unaddressed the relations with the European Union. In a bipartisan effort what sort of conversation to have with the EU so that Britain's economy benefits? President Biden's effort in working with like minded Republicans for America's renewal may be seen by Labour and the Conservatives as reason for doing the same in Britain to ensure European recovery.   ...

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Iran War and rescue of pilot of downed F15-E in mountainous terrain in southern Iran April 4 2026. CSAR or Search and Rescue Missions become a critical part of the war. The pilot was a colonel trained for the mission and spent 24 hours in mountainous terrain which was monitored by US forces, after intelligence located him in a mountain crevice. For this to be possible unlike in the Vietnam War and Korean War other nations are not involved as in the earlier Cold War.  The US under DJT as president has shifted to respecting Russia as a Northern European power that it can talk with (meetings with Putin in Alaska 2025) and China as a trade partner (planned meeting in Beijing in April 2026) that it can talk with unlike with previous administrations of Biden, Obama and Bush where China had afree hand in economic matters and global trade and Russia was shut out of the world economic system by elites who ran the government in the US at that time. Russia seeks reintegration in the world political and economic systems, and China seeks acceptance as an economic power which the US respects, both points in which the US has offered to accept. US has also repeated the line to China that it was not going to do the job of keeping Hormuz open for China and Japan to get 90% of oil imports, and in oding so risk losing its soldier's lives, while China and Japan can quietly watch doing nothing to help free navigation of international waters. Note that the narrowest strip of water of 13 miles separates Oman from Iran so that a part of these waters are on the Omani side and not on the Iranian side making free use of that Omani part under international law possible- in which sense Iranian hostile activity closing the Omani side also is a violation of free navigation. This is not pointed out by Iran or Japan or even Britain who are benefitting from US action and remaining silent or being ambivalent or accusing US of being interventionist even when everyone knows MAGA base rejected Bush in the Republican party and the elites and embraced DJT for great part because they want nothing to do with interventionist adventures in the Middle East for certain. US is getting a bum rap from European allies and from China, India, Japan and the media inside the US and in those countries as if the US seeks oil from the Middle East. It was Britain where a lot of the posturing goes on about non intervention that started this oil based intervention since 1900 in Iran itself, and in artificial states of Iraq, Syria, that it created out of the collapsed Ottoman Empire in World War 1. Sykes and Picot were the US and French diplomats who set that up. US under DJT has accomplished self sufficiency in oil and US has no need for anything from the Middle East, no desire to even get involved, and MAGA well grasps that fact and wants to keep it that way. Only nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles with long range to hit US and EU are reason for US action, which is reason enough for EU, China, Russia to set their own goals so that non proliferation in dangerous areas is prevented. So that the people of China, Russia, India, Europe and the rest of the world can enjoy the fruits of their own labors after a century of severe hardships and struggles which the American people if not their elites respect, and the fruits of peaceful cooperation which the American people extend to the World, and to China, Russia and India. ...

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With Britain not willing to join an EU wide agreement for all 27 countries in the region, Sweden and the Czech Republic asking for time to consult its parliament, and Hungary declining, only 23 EU countries are now on board for new EU wide treaty changes for fiscal discipline. This makes new EU treaty changes unlikely, and means France and Germany will move ahead with a eurozone agreement for the 17 nation group. This can be done much faster than the cumbersome process for EU treaty revisions. The details of the new agreement will be worked out in the coming weeks and should restore confidence in financial markets. The problem now most experts say is that a new agreement might move too quickly to reduce deficits, worsening the economic prospects in the European Union countries. Fernando Fernandez, an economist at IE Business School in Madrid, says the critical question is how much time countries will be given to meet new rules. If for instance debt is to be reduced by 20 percentage points of GDP in 3 years under new rules, this would impact eurozone growth severely with sharp contractions in already fragile economies. Peter Morici, business professor at the University of Maryland, underscores this, saying Germany is close to zero growth and economies of countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy are contracting. Higher unemployment will result with smaller tax bases, making the situation appear to improve as borrowing rates for Italy drop now, but worsening the situation in 2012-2013 as deficit projections are not attainable. This is already true in Britain where earlier deficit projections are being pushed into future years as economic growth is declining....

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What would a EU Britain relationship look like under Keir Starmer's Labour party? For education and student exchanges, for agriculture, and for defense? For Starmer why waste any capital when there is a need to deliver for working people and families in Britain, overcome the financial mess the Tories have left and still invest in Britain year after year, to permanently rest fears of the working class in Britain who left Labour.

A small test is happening over student exchanges as the EU's Leyen revives the plan for a 4 year college level student exchange. Here British universities say their finances cannot handle what the EU proposes that in the year spent overseas tution would be paid to the host country university. Another concern is that this is not seen as freedom of movement which the British public have not supported.

Alternative proposed is for a 2 year exchange that the EU has with Canada and Australia. 

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French concerns voiced by Macron that Britain should not gain unfair competitive advantage by not adhering to EU environment and other rules after leaving the European Union. Macron's shows willingness to take the blame for failure in Brexit talks because of French demands.

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This piece by Kanter in the NYT gives an account of Jean Claude Juncker's background as a political leader in Luxembourg. His father worked in the steel industry and was active in the trade union movement at a time when farming and steel making supported the economy of Luxembourg. In two decades under Juncker Luxembourg was transformed into a banking and insurance center with one of the largest per capita incomes in Europe. As a Brussels insider Juncker, according to British public opinion, is an odd choice to head the EU when it is trying to make its administration more democratic and less distant from the average person in the EU. Britain's prime minister Cameron says Juncker "was never on any ballot." The reason for Juncker's candidacy is that he is supported by the centre right parties in Europe, which also lost support in the recent elections. The Socialist and left parties fared worse in the election, but both centre right and left parties lost votes to third parties and nationalist parties such as the Marie Le Pen's nationalist party in France and the Independent party in Britain. Even chancellor Merkel of Germany initially hesitated to support Juncker, but confirmed him as her choice when German public opinion showed it favored the selection based on the largest party in the European parliament making the choice. This puts Britain and Cameron at odds with Germany, with the Swedes and the Dutch calming their doubts about Juncker and going with Germany. Little is mentioned in the media about the other candidate, an SPD leader from Germany representing the socialist and Left parties. ...

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With high unemployment at 11% in France, only 41% of the people in a Pew Research Center poll gave favorable impressions about the European Union. This is down from 60% in 2012. In Germany 60% of those polled gave a favorable impression of the EU in 2013. The number remained steady in Britain at about 43%.

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Boris Johnson wins the race to lead the Conservative Party and become the next prime minister of Britain. Several ministers resigned underlining the problem he faces lacking support from the Conservative party members who do not support exit from the European Union without some deal or arrangement with the EU. He will lead a minority government that could fall with the loss of support from within the Conservative Party itself. Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt by 92,153 votes to 46,656. He now has a margin of only three votes with the help of the Unionist Party of Northern Ireland and faltering support from members of the Conservative Party who see Boris Johnson's idea of simply leaving the EU on October 31st deal or no deal as problematic. 

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Ed Miliband, leader of the Labor party, tells British prime minister Cameron in parliament on Dec. 12, 2011: "It's not a veto when the thing you wanted to stop goes ahead without you. That's called losing.That's called being defeated. That's called letting Britain down." Miliband was asking what purpose was being served, when it was expected that the European Union leaders were unlikely to provide Britain with safeguards for its financial industry, and when Britain has actually led the way in calling for stricter capital reserve requirements than Basel III standards accepted in Europe. Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, said Britain cannot separate its financial industry from the rest of Europe: "If this move was intended to prevent bankers and financial corporations in the City from being regulated, that is not going to happen."

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Even though Brexit is seen as bad for the British economy from a a loss of trade with the EU of as much as 40% and the gains from Brexit that were expected from free trade deals and deregulation too small or illusory, the pro Brexiters soldier on unswayed by this. Prime minister Theresa May is seen as being able to take this deal with the EU through parliament in a second vote after losing the first vote. Behind this thinking are thoughts about how the opposition under Labour and gains made by Labour in a future election could bring together disparate parts of the Conservative party to get this through parliament. The abolishing of free movement between the EU and Britain, is cited as a gain from Brexit. Yet it is this loss of free movement and losses in trade with the EU that are expected to lead to a loss of 3% in GDP per head for every British person, making ordinary British people poorer. In the absence of a Brexit vote Britons would have an additional 2% of GDP per head, according to the Centre for European Reform, a think tank.    ...

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Boris Johnson says no deal Brexit remains a real possibility after dinner meeting with Leyen and discussions fail to lead to any agreement. Johnson says he has the backing of his senior ministers. The UK Johnson says, should not remain stuck in "the EU's regulatory orbit." There now appears to be a German led group that includes Sweden that seeks a compromise, and a French led group that accepts Britain leaving the European Union without any agreement.

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Britain's prime minister survives a vote in parliament called by the camp in her part that opposes a hard Brexit that calls for Britain severing connections with the EU. After she caved in to some demands from the camp that supports a hard Brexit on the issue of EU customs union, others with different views in her party called for a vote in parliament through an amendment. Theresa May survived this vote by just 6 votes following a vote a few days before called by the Brexit hard liner camp in her party which she survived. Britain's electoral Commission ruled that the Vote Leave campaign had violated the law by exceeding the spending limit of 7 million pounds by funnelling 675,000 pounds to BeLeave a pro Brexit youth group. There is now no certainty that a Brexit deal can make it through parliament if it is reached with the EU. A fresh election, or a second referendum on Brexit or terms of Brexit are likely if May's government collapses in 2018.  ...

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The Chief Correspondent of BBC News points out the dangers facing May and the British economy as the deadline of March approaches for invoking Article 50 to leave the EU and start negotiations. The possibilities of a "disorderly break" cannot be discounted, he says. There are many hurdles. The negotiations could get bogged down on the issue of settling outstanding obligations for which Britain owes 50-60 billion euros. Consumers will feel the effects of higher prices on their budgets as prices creep up. Already tech goods prices are reflecting the drop in value of the British pound. There is little solace to be found in the 6 months of steady economy following the Brexit vote as inflation has not hit consumers hard so far. Chancellor Merkel of Germany has said that there will be "no cherry picking" allowed in the negotiations. And the French right and former Gaullists have never concealed their views about Britain being on again and off again on the idea of Europe. The City of London, British business, and large parts of the Conservative Party do not favor Brexit, even the civil servants expected to implement it are skeptical, creating an additional layer of complexity and uncertainty and difficulty.Under a "disorderly break" Britain would revert back to the tariffs set under World Trade Organization arrangements. ...

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The only way the Conservatives can form a majority to govern in Britain is by getting the support of the Democratic Unionist Party with its 10 seats, and this would still give Conservatives 328 seats in parliament, with 326 required for a majority. This very thin 3 seat majority could lead to a fall of the government if a couple of Conservative party members defected. Here Davies points out that though the Democratic Unionist party supports Brexit it is of a very different nature. The party is based in Ireland and originated with Rev. Ian Paisley. With its Irish roots it wants free movement of goods and people across the border with Ireland which is an EU member, access to EU funding and protection for farmers. Ireland has shown serious concern about the Brexit vote, and Northern Ireland voters voted against Brexit 56% to 44% for Brexit. This open border and EU support is close to what is currently in place. As Davies points out this puts the whole Brexit negotiating process in doubt, with no coherent position for Britain at all, leading to a collapse of the talks and no deal with the European Union. Another reason the doubts about Brexit are likely to grow is that a large part of the UK Independence Party support has disappeared, with UKIP getting 1.8% of the vote compared to about 11% in 2015 election. The combined vote of the parties that see Brexit as a priority for Britain was in fact about 45.1%, combining Conservatives 42.4%, Democratic Unionist 0.9% and UKIP 1.8%. The parties that did not see Brexit as a priority for Britain won over 50% of the vote this time- Labor 40.0%, Scottish National party 3.0%, Liberal Democrats 7.4%, according to BBC. Davies says the increasing uncertainty is bad for the British economy. In coming months doubts are likely to grow about whether the referendum was a priority for Britain, and how this is a distraction from the other serious issues facing the British economy to ensure a better future. ...

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Jean Claude Juncker, the newly elected president of the European Commission, was prime minister of Luxembourg for 18 years. During that period Luxembourg pursued policies that enabled large corporations to evade taxes by setting up in Luxembourg and paying taxes below 1%. A prominent British MP says it is outrageous that Juncker should be looking after tax issues in Europe with such a dismal record on taxes. He was elected with the support of Germany over Britsh objections, because he was supported by the largest elected bloc in the 2014 EU elections. But a new study by London based Open Europe shows the centre right parties supporting Juncker's candidacy won only 9.7% of the vote. The candidacy also did not receive the close scrutiny that should go with a position of such importance. The result is that the European Commission will suffer from a lack of credibility during his tenure at a time when the Commission was criticized for its bureaucratic structures, and back room deals. The criticism from Britain is especially strong. Ironically German chancellor Merkel supported Juncker to bring some element of democratic support from the EU parliament into the process of selection, which now appears to be weak....

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This article on the main protagonists in the Conservative Party during the EU referendum in Britain shows how the narrow interests of a few Oxford educated politicians and their infighting has shaped the vote on Brexit. Gove, the Justice Secretary and Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London, have no idea what to do if they won in the Brexit vote. Both pull out of the leadership race after prime minister Cameron announces his planned resignation following a leadership vote in the party. Cameron and Osborne, the other two Oxford educated politicians, are caught up in the infighting in the Conservative Party which leads to Britain voting to leave the European Union. The article looks at the lives of the four male politicians who form an old boys club at one time and now are deeply divided with Cameron's wife Samantha and Gove's wife Sarah Vine once close friends, now along with their husbands no longer talking to each other. Also evident here is that Sarah Vine writing in the Daily Mail discloses more grief about all this messing up her social life than the way the vote to leave the EU will eventually affect the country's standing, its credit rating, and the economy, and how it affects the lives of ordinary British people. ...

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Horst Seehofer says there should be unlimited cooperation on security between EU and Britain after Brexit. Privately France has taken this position. The EU Commission and Merkel have taken the position that Theresa May's position hurts European security. Seehofer faces a challenge from the right wing parties in Bavaria's election and chose to take a different position than chancellor Merkel. 

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The European Union was faced with a baseline tariff of 10% which after slow progress on negotiations is up now to 15%. EU frustration is evident in this story in the WSJ. But this could also be just a negotiating tactic of the EU. Bottom line the EU needs the US as Germany faces an assertive Russia. Germany is aware that France and Britain are further away than Germany from Eastern Europe and Russia.  Under chancellor Merz there is  much more rapport with the US than ever existed under the Merkel government or the Scholz government. Merz has disagreed with the sale of stake to COSCO in Hamburg port and many decisions from the Merkel period on immigration, being more aligned with the US in spirit. This was evident in the visit and meeting of DJT with Merz at the White House. DJT says even of Starmer of Labour that "I like him a lot." This could easily be said about the relationship between DJT and Merz. The decision by DJT on Patriots to replenish German supplies and by Merz to finance this and shift Patriots in Germany to Ukraine is a clear example of the path chosen by the two leaders for cooperation. German decisions will be driven by Merz in the direction of economic cooperation with the US with none of the condescending attitude that Merkel and even Scholz showed towards the US out of a lack of grasp of what is happening both inside Germany and the US, the need to rebuild the US and Europe after the trade disasters and lack of investment in the home base of 30 years. ...

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Russian view at SCO Summit-"A fair balance in the security sphere" meaning a fair settlement on the expansion of NATO and EU that may threaten Russia, something Northern Europeans have not settled.  Le Monde covers this side of the Summit at Tianjin, a coastal city near Beijing in northeastern China. Over long periods of European history since 1600 Northern Europe including UK, Sweden, Denmark, France, Poland and Germany have contended with Russia and seen purely from this perspective Russia sees itself as a Northern European power and seeks to protect it's interests. Britain, Sweden and France have for the most part been on the opposite side since 1600. US under a Republican administration, and this is not just DJT, sees the larger interests beyond Europe of Asia and the American continent in addition to Europe, and seeks a diplomatic way out of the war in Europe.

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Executives are outspoken in their frustration with having to develop plans to operate in the event Britain leaves the European Union on March 29 without a deal. Ties in logistics bind Britain with the single customs market of the EU. 

The British plans of a German toolmaker Heller are shown here to continue operating. Questions are raised whether Heller will close it Brexit goes the wrong way. Across Britain plants have closely timed cross border supply chain. Airbus Chief Enders calls the Brexit failures a "disgrace."

All the uncertainty means new investments will be postponed, and the cost of contingency planning will increase. Some say they have difficulty believing this crash culture and say its not British way of doing things.