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This essay in the Economist warns that most of the public does not understand the dangers of the idea of no Brexit as a preferred option to a Brexit deal that gives too much to the EU. It says this is dangerous in terms of the harsh effects at the border with Ireland and on the economies of Ireland and Britain. It points out that the private view of the EU is very negative towards Brexit compared to the diplomatic comments, so that little should be taken for granted. The European Union and Britain would in the event of no deal on Brexit not follow agreed  terms such on as the 40 billion pounds exit bill, guarantee of EU citizens rights, averting of a hard border in Ireland. The unfriendly nature of such a no deal would lead to aggravating its effects, argues the Economist.  The Economist estimate is that about 4% of GDP would be lost over 5 years for Britain and Ireland. Supply chains would be disrupted. Depending on WTO rules alone is not sufficient as the EU has bilateral deals with many countries. The car industry is particularly vulnerable as it employs 800,000 people and exports 80% of output- it would lose EU certification and face 10% tariffs. EU has made clear that trade for chemicals, pharmaceuticals or cars depends on meeting its standards. These are only a few of the problems in trade as the list goes on and on. ...

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British prime minister May puts her leadership on the line as she puts forward a Brexit deal to a divided cabinet. The deal keeps Britain in the customs union of the European Union and continues Britain's connections with the EU in other areas. It is opposed by some members of her cabinet. Transport minister Jo Johnson resigned calling for a second referendum. Pro Brexiters oppose the deal as it continues Britain's membership in the customs union.

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Brexit negotiation guidelines from the EU rule out parallel talks on both Britian's future relationship with the EU and the separation agreement negotiations, preferring a phased approach. Only when the first phase of separation is complete or at an advanced stage would the second phase of future relationship with the EU be negotiated. The EU Council president, Donald Tusk, says the process would be long, complex and at times confrontational. Der Spiegel online writing on the negotiation describes the approach in a meeting with the lead German negotiator Mr. Oettinger, on the team of Michael Barnier who leads the negotiations for the EU- Oettinger focussed on what Britain owes the EU, estimated at over 60 billion euros. So far apart are the British and EU positions that Michael Barnier has no idea on the pathway for these negotiations, only awareness of the priorities such as the rights of EU and British citizens in each others region, says Der Spiegel. Looking at Theresa May speaking in parliament about her decision to move forward with Brexit in a letter to the EU invoking Article 50, one senses a mixture of confidence and nationalist appeal, far different from reality on the ground. The Leader of the Opposition cited government figures for a sharp decline in GDP as a result of Brexit, and the Scottish leader in parliament went so far as to say the government attitude in negotiations made "Scottish independence inevitable"- all headwinds Theresa May appears to be ignoring or treating with disdain. At this time the EU and the British prime minister appear to be talking over rather than to each other.   ...

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Most newspapers in Britain talked about the need for unity of the Conservatives if they are to survive the failure of three prime ministers May, Johnson and Truss, and the complexities of Brexit. The Daily Mirror is skeptical and asks "Who Voted for You" in its headline. Brexit brings working class supporters who favor government support and higher spending in an alliance with  traditional Conservative party policies of cutting taxes and austerity cuts in spending. The result as Gerard Baker points out in the WSJ today is one of abject chaos ,as happened in the undoing of Liz Truss with her tax cuts for the rich, financial market chaos, and immediate resignation.

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Even though Brexit is seen as bad for the British economy from a a loss of trade with the EU of as much as 40% and the gains from Brexit that were expected from free trade deals and deregulation too small or illusory, the pro Brexiters soldier on unswayed by this. Prime minister Theresa May is seen as being able to take this deal with the EU through parliament in a second vote after losing the first vote. Behind this thinking are thoughts about how the opposition under Labour and gains made by Labour in a future election could bring together disparate parts of the Conservative party to get this through parliament. The abolishing of free movement between the EU and Britain, is cited as a gain from Brexit. Yet it is this loss of free movement and losses in trade with the EU that are expected to lead to a loss of 3% in GDP per head for every British person, making ordinary British people poorer. In the absence of a Brexit vote Britons would have an additional 2% of GDP per head, according to the Centre for European Reform, a think tank.    ...

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Mr. McDonnell, says to loud applause at the annual Britain's Labor Party conference in Liverpool- "the greater the mess we inherit, the more radical we have to be." Mr. McDonnell told the Labor Party that the power balance had shifted against labor and workers in the last decade. The Brexit Secretary of the Labor Party left the option open for a second referendum on Brexit with the option "remain." Serious divisions have emerged within the ruling Conservative Party in Britain on the issue of withdrawal from the European Union. For the first time the Labor party conference endorsed the idea of nationalizing utilities, postal and rail companies and setting up a fund that would finance a $650 annual dividend for workers, with 10% of stock reserved for workers in companies with more than 250 employees. About a third of the seats will also be reserved for labor on company Board of Directors so that worker interests are better represented. Stagnating wages and low productivity is a major issue for the Labor Party in Britain. Mr. John McDonnell, as economic leader of the Labor Party, cited the words of the Archbishop of Canterbury, critical of the current situation with stagnation and low wages, lack of upward mobility. ...

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A warning from Britain about tax cuts and not investing in the US economy that could put the US in the same bad shape as Britain under the Tories with Trump/Vance tax cuts and high tariffs stifling the economy. Krugman, with his long experience in studying economic policy of governments,  says the unforced error for Britain was not even Brexit as much as it was the austerity policies put forward by Cameron and his finance minister Osborne in 2010. What it did was to push austerity policies when the right move would have been to invest in the economy and in public services. In 2010 he says the Greece crisis and eurozone debt crisis led to Britain adopting austerity when it was in a different situation. Britain's debt was in its own currency and at home. The British economy was just recovering from the 2009 banking crisis which meant that economic capacity was underutilized and more people needed to be employed. In this situation Britain instead of Cameron/Osborne austerity that starved public services and investment in infrastructure, jobs, needed to invest in public services. A decade and half later this has put Britain in a bad place with a weak economy and dilapidated public services. Britain lacks the courage and right policy of the Biden administration in investing in the economy with support from Congress, so that even Labour is not in a position to soon reverse the effects of this austerity policy. ...

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Thomas Huetlin, writes in an editorial in Der Spiegel, that the British parliamentary elections and losses of the Conservatives, may have killed off Brexit. He cites a unnamed cabinet minister in Theresa May's cabinet who says that frankly Brexit is dead, and is quoted in the Financial Times. The Financial Times also described the situation after the election as making Britain look "ridiculous." Der Spiegel points out that the more time passes the more the anger over Brexit idea being used by British Tory politicians in their political calculations is likely to increase. And more so as its negative effects on the British economy become increasingly apparent. Warnings that the Bank of England has repeatedly made

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Three members of parliament from Britain's Conservative Party who backed a second referendum on Brexit to cancel Britain's exit from the European Union left the party to join eight members of the Labour Party who left the Labour party earlier. They formed a new group in parliament called the Independent Group. This narrows Theresa May's majority in parliament to 8 members and increases chances for a new election. Several members of May's cabinet are threatening to quit if Britain leaves the UK without a deal.

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Theresa May becomes the only candidate for leadership of the Conservative Party after Ms Leadsom withdraws from the race. No leadership vote will no take place with Conservative Party members and no early general election is planned. May is expected to become prime minister of Britain by July 12, replacing David Cameron. Her theme is for "one Britain" and to do away with the rising inequality and gap between London and the rest of the country, which was part of the anxiety of voters who voted 52% for Brexit on issues of immigration burden on social and health services, national sovereignty, and a sense of ordinary people being neglected by elites in both parties. May will invoke Article 50 to leave the European Union and begin a 2 year period of negotiations only after she has developed a clear negotiating strategy. Kenneth Clarke, a Conservative Party cabinet minister called May a "bloody difficult woman," but this did not affect May, who said Mr Juncker of the EU was the one who would find this out in negotiations.  What is significant for Britain is May's moderate position coupled with a clear goal for removing some of the causes of the inequity in British society, which is needed for Britain to remain united. She called on companies like Amazon, Google and others to pay their fair share of taxes, and made clear her intent to strengthen the mechanisms for controlling executive pay. Also part of this strategy will be a more effective immigration control policy, which she did not implement vigorously as Home Secretary in the Cameron government, partly because of constraints set by EU membership. May made clear her agenda going forward by saying: "There is a growing divide between a more prosperous older generation and a struggling younger generation. And there is a gaping chasm between wealthy London and the rest of the country."  Changes May is supporting are to make executive pay rules to become binding not just advisory, and for employees and consumers to gain seats on company boards.  ...

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The local elections in Britain in 2019 show voter dissatisfaction with the mainparties. Both Conservatives and he Labour party each took 28% share of the vote. The big winners were the centrist Liberal Democrats with 19% of the vote. The Greens party also was a winner in the vote. About 8400 seats were up for election in this vote. Conservative party lost 1300 seats. The Labour Party disappointed because it was expected to win more seats as Conservatives did well in the last election in 2015, by winning 81 seats. The Liberal Dems and the Greens won 850 seats between them.  The stridently pro-Brexit Nigel Farage Independence Party did not put up candidates and a anti-Brexit party called ChangeUK also did not have candidates. Both will field candidates in the European elections causing the main parties to lose even more of their support that has dropped to 28%. This means Labour party leaders Corbyn and McDonnell might continue negotiations with Theresa May on Brexit plan. But as Rachel Sylvester reports in The Times today with May lacking support from her Conservative Party, her tenure as prime minister uncertain, there is little incentive for Labour leaders to go against the wishes of a majority of Labour MP's, voters, and members who are against Brexit. Corbyn also want to focus coming elections on austerity not Brexit. So this is not on Labour's agenda. Sylvester says a confirmatory referendum is looking like the only way out of the mess.    ...

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Britain has fallen way behind under Conservatives Tories misrule. On just about all indicators of the economy the US is ahead of Britain, on cost of living, on investment in infrastructure, on chips and science, on unemployment and on economic growth. The US economic growth was 2% compared to 0.5% for Britain.  Britain under the Tories over the last ten years lost so much ground fighting for Brexit and hurting it's economy. The Tory party is itself torn apart again today by Farage's Reform party, much of it from poor leadership- Cameron, Boris Johnson, Sunak. The result today is that Labour's Starmer says he has a 22 billion pound gap in the Budget that the Tories Conservatives have left him, a hole he says that will lead to Labour cutting winter fuel payment for pensioners this winter.  The US with president Biden is so far ahead of Britain with $1 trillion in investments taking place under the Inflation Reduction Act and $53 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act. Harris plans to build 3 million homes and offer $100 billion to small business to spur growth. There is just no comparison and owes much to president Biden and Harris, and to senior Republicans who supported the administration on the economy. ...

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In a meeting charged with emotion Theresa May says she will not run again as a way to get support from a pro-Brexit MP's faction in her party that includes Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Moog. Some members of this faction support exiting the EU even if it means no-deal is reached on future relations between the EU and Britain including agreement on membership in the customs union.

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French concerns voiced by Macron that Britain should not gain unfair competitive advantage by not adhering to EU environment and other rules after leaving the European Union. Macron's shows willingness to take the blame for failure in Brexit talks because of French demands.

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Britain becomes the worst performer in the G-7 countries with growth in the 1st quarter of 2017 of only 0.2%. Germany at 0.6% and France at 0.4% surpass the UK. The decline in the British pound and higher prices is slowing the economy following Brexit vote.

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Britain faces two years of growth at near zero with a no-deal Brexit -even though it could avoid a recession by adding a stimulus package of 44 billion pounds and welfare spending amounting to 2% of GDP. The extra spending would blow the deficit reduction plans.

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About a third of Conservative party members of the 10,000 who will be voting soon for a new leader still like Mr. Boris Johnson. Some say he has his faults, but who doesn't. Mr. Johnson has a flamboyant carefree bouncy style that has endeared him to supporters, and had he taken the public more seriously to be consistent and steady he may well have remained a prime minister. He is the only leader of the Tories who could convince traditional Labor voters to vote Tory. Ms. Truss, who has unstinting support of Mr. Johnson will continue to see Mr. Johnson as a respected leader if she is elected. Truss sees Johnson getting a well earned break, as she put it in a debate, like his hero Churchill who lost elections in 1945 only to come back in 1951 with more experience, restraint and wisdom. In a recent debate she stood by Mr. Johnson saying he did not need to resign. Today's Tories are leaderless and not recognizable as a single entity without the prime minister. With a little restraint, awareness of his inexperience, openness and respect for the British public, Mr. Johnson may well have remained prime minister. He now appears to be seeking a second opportunity, says this report in WSJ. It is hard to imagine Brexit without Boris Johnson. He defied the established reasoning through common sense observation. He once said that the only thing Britain would lose from Brexit is that there would be a shortage of Mars bars. Ms. Truss is somewhere between Labor and the Conservative in her life long convictions, yet has taken the Brexit cause to heart. Sir Keir Starmer Labor leader says he too will be trying to make Brexit work. ...

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Britain's prime minister Boris Johnson and his negotiating team meet EU president Ursula Leyen for dinner in Brussels on December 8, 2020, to get over fundamental differences for a Brexit deal. This report in The Guardian describes the details of that dinner meeting.  Boris Johnson told parliament that the European Union was asking Britain to be the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its own fishing waters. He said the EU was also asking that if the EU were to pass a new law that Britain does not comply with they would have the right to  automatically punish Britain or retaliate. On the issue of environmental and other laws that relate to the EU and Britain they are both at the same level today. The EU is worried that in future competition between Britain and the EU in trade and business Britain could relax environmental or other laws to gain an unfair advantage. Boris Johnson and his Conservative party back benchers insist that Britain should have sole right to make its own laws. France's Macron introduced the idea of automatic retaliation as a way to get Britain to keep a level playing field. Both sides see this as a negotiating tactic, hence the dinner meeting as a way to let top negotiators including the leaders to set an informal tone to the final stage of tough negotiating. Merkel made her own remarks to the German parliament saying she was willing to let the negotiations collapse if Britain rejected the EU approach. Merkel stated that if Britain insisted on certain conditions EU could not accept she was willing to let Britain leave without an exit agreement. This way if something went wrong Merkel would not take the blame.   ...

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The gaps between myth and reality of the Conservatives continues to grow says this view from Labour expressed in The Guardian. With the chaos in the Conservatives and three prime ministers out in a short period- first with Brexit, then with the factions supporting and against Boris Johnson who led the fight to take Britain out of the European Union, the promises made to the North of England that led to Johnson's win in the election are falling by the wayside. There is no real progress in levelling up wealth and development gaps between regions in Britain, the commitment to tackling climate change is wavering and inconsistent when the rest of Europe and the US is moving forward with clear intent and funding, and the effort to tackle the cost of living crisis lacks conviction and plan changing by the day.     

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Le Monde looks at falling living standards across the UK. It looks at Essex and Brentwood and other towns outside the metro region of London. The 2009 financial crisis caused by banks was followed in four blows of Cameron's decade of austerity and of not investing in Britain, the upheavals of Brexit, the once in a century pandemic, and now inflation, causing a depressing sight of all lower and middle social classes struggling to make a living. 

Since 2007 real wages in UK have fallen by 3.5%. Between 1970 and 2008 wages grew by 33% every 10 years.

The poorest 10% in Britain have 22% lower purchasing power than the poorest 10% in France, says Torsten Bell of Resolution Foundation, author of report "Stagnation Nation."

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This report in The Economist magazine shows that Germany no longer runs the European Union in the way it has previously. During the austerity crisis with bank bailouts in many countries in southern Europe Germany played a key role. Merkel was perceived as the dominant partner in the relationships with French presidents Sarkozy and Hollande. Britain perceived Germany's increased dominance during that period as a threat. Brexit Leave campaign played on these fears and a diminished British role. Merkel's handling of the migration crisis also played into the hands of Brexit Leave campaigners with poster pictures of migrants crossing European borders in large numbers on British buses. Merkel changed course on migration policies and gradually reversed it to where Germany no longer welcomes economic migrants preferring that they stay in their home countries with German aid to these countries. Merkel's CDU is now facing challenges from a fragmented electorate with many parties and its own diminished role. Gradually the perception of Germany's role is now also reversing. Even though the new president of the European Commission is Ursula Leyen from Germany, there are more Spaniards, French, Italians and Belgians, work in the commission and parliament than Germans, More Director General roles are held by Italy. Germans in Brussels also do not take directions from Berlin, and are actually more Francophile and federalist in their thinking. Germans opinion is more diverse and plural than the idea of a dominant German view. Greens in Germany are coming first in polls showing how much is changing. These multilayers and different strands of thinking make Germany introverted as it is at present. Leyen is seen as more European in outlook and a more European Germany may be the result than a German Europe.  This may play a part in any new elections in Britain or a second referendum on Brexit as polls suggest there is a shift in opinion in Britain underway. ...

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A Conservative MP crosses over to the Opposition in parliament causing Mr. Johnson's government to lose its one vote majority in Britain's parliament. As a minority government its future is uncertain. Johnson called for a snap election which will require a two thirds majority in parliament and is unlikely if called by the minority  government. With 31 Conservative rebel MP's led by Mr. Hammond former finance minister, and Labour MP's, Scottish National Party MP's, the Opposition is planning legislation to delay Brexit till January 2020. This is likely to happen now that it has a majority. The next step- the Opposition unites behind Mr. Corbyn to form a government or in the event of that not happening a general election is called.  Even though there is support for Brexit in the country it is not known whether the mood of the country has changed in the years since the referendum with the debacle in the Conservative Party. The Conservatives are badly divided, and the entry of  Mr. Cummings running Mr. Boris Johnson's government  election campaign has distanced the party from Mr. Farage's UK Independence Party, Conservative moderates. All these factors could lead to a change in government. The general election is also likely to be fought on terms other than just Brexit- with the future of the country, and a change of direction, becoming the challenge facing Britain, as the damage done by divisive politics and the precarious economy, living standards, begins to be better understood. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ says Brexit lets British voters not a political elite decide the best way forward. Endless integration set by the EU in Brussels was never the best course for Britain given its trading and commercial history. The anemic economic growth, migration crisis in the EU, and the lack of accountability of Brussels EU bureaucracy was an issue for the British public. Ask any unemployed youth in France, stagnating entrepreneurs in Germany, or people in Eastern and Southern Europe struggling with economic policy for the euro set in Frankfurt by the ECB, says the WSJ.

The British government handling Brexit and the economy will still be held accountable for delivering good results. British people choosing to "take back control" through political independence was the right way given that continental social democracy and the "European Project" does not have the answers for Britain's future vision and growth.

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Michael Gove resigns from the Tory government of Rishi Sunak days after the announcement of UK elections on July 4, 2024. Here he says a greater implosion than gaining about 150 seats  for the Tories party could even blow away his chances in a solid Tory seat. Much has changed in Britain since the days of Brexit which is highly unpopular today with the British public. The Times Tim Shipman looks at the controversial decisions of Gove and how he added credibility to the Leave campaign when he had previously advised Cameron against holding a referendum. Today 58% of British people support joining the European Union. Gove's actions and that of others including Johnson, Cummings and Sunak show Conservatives in a poor light leaving Britain in a precarious position with low growth and little room in finances for the kind of investment Britain needs for its infrastructure, public services and its economy. It is a lesson that sudden ill thought out moves for political advantage by politicians and poor decisions can create chaos and diminish a nation's prospects. ...