LyrArc Article Gist
The economic crisis in the Russian city of Yaroslavl, 150 miles northeast of Moscow on the Volga river. Auto sales are down 30% and the city's diesel engine making plant is down to working only 3 days aweek. Many of the other factories and plants here are laying off people and are also on 3 days a week. Cafes and bars in the city are empty and people are filling job search centers.

LyrArc Article Gist
India has one of the tightest lockdowns in the world, Google activity data around retail locations shows mobility down 55% compared to 18% in the U.S. Yet cases are surging and are at a high of 10,000 per day for the last week with deaths up from 600 a day to 1000. 

With consumers preparing for the long run there is less spending and more money going into saving. Sales of everything from shampoo to cars are down. Sales of Suzuki in India are down 83%, and smartphone sales down by 51% in the second quarter of 2020.

GDP is expected to be down by 7% for the fiscal year to March 2021 similar to GDP declines in Europe and the U.S. 

As consumer spending declines the government is planning increasing spending on much needed infrastructure.

 

 

LyrArc Article Gist
Critics of the nuclear agreement with Iran reached in April 2015 say the verification under a UN agency will be weak, and the "snap back" of sanctions in the event of failure may not work in the real world.

LyrArc Article Gist
Chennai, a city of 10 million in India faces a water crisis. It is approaching a situation of Day Zero when the water utility in the city can not any longer provide regular supplies of water through tap water. Tankers with water are used instead. This situation is a result of the 4 reservoirs used for Chennai water suffering from drought in the area- two are dry and the other two are almost dry. Water tankers supply water at the cost of an average salary of 9000 rupees  a month as shown in this story in the WSJ.

Cities such as Shimla, Managalore, Hyderabad, Delhi, also face water supplies crisis. All over India 600 million people live in water stressed areas, according to NITI Aayog, a government policy think tank. By 2030 the demand for water is expected to double. With weak monsoon rains the government is calling for water conservation.

LyrArc Article Gist
Experts at Moody's say that a partial deal with China like the phase 1 deal Mr. Trump announced this week will leave unresolved the fundamental differences in the two countries' economic, political and strategic interests. Mr. Trump suspended a new tariff on Chinese imports set to go into effect in December on mobile phones, laptops and the remaining import products not yet covered by tariffs. Any improvements in relations is seen only as temporary. In the agriculture sector most farmers are taking a cautious attitude. Importers of products such as luggage and other basic consumer products are living with the uncertainty- product quality may deteriorate now that importers cannot pass on a 25% tariff cost.

LyrArc Article Gist
"Today's era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this." Modi tells Putin at a meeting this week with the Russian leader. And Putin's reply "I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine and the concerns that you constantly express. We will do our best to stop this as soon as possible. Only unfortunately the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, announced that it wants to achieve its goals by military means  as they say "on the battlefield."

LyrArc Article Gist
Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri says India has diversified its sourcing of oil supplies to avoid dependence on the Straits of Hormuz. It has weeks of reserves. Saudis have 5 million barrel a day pipeline to bypass Hormuz waterway and UAE 1.5 million barrel a day pipeline to bypass Hormuz waterway, so that 6.5 million barrels a day could be added to meet Asian oil demand, in addition to convoys escorted by US warships  in Hormuz waterway to meet demand from China, India and Japan. This would mean China is itself dependent on American seapower to maintain it's oil supplies, a third of which come through the Hormuz waterway and keep important sealanes of navigation open. China, India, Japan, and other World are critical for the world economy manufacturing sector and comprise 3.5  billion or about half of the world's population. In addition Latin America and Africa are dependent on oil supplies and prices.  New pipelines, renewable energy, will become more important in the years ahead, and figure more in planner's minds after this Hormuz episode. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
German chancellor Merkel announces steps for a new lockdown to tackle the second wave and infections daily of over 30,000 in Germany, critical levels for ICU beds in parts of the country. Stores, schools and daycare centers will close till January 10, to prevent spread of the virus during the Christmas period. The action was taken in consultation with 16 state leaders.

Stores now include hairdressers. Parents are given paid holidays to look after children as day care centers are closed. Communal singing in churches is not allowed.During December 24-26 a slight relaxation allows families to invite 4 adults and any number of children under 14 years. People planning to meet up are urged to isolate for a week to be safe.

LyrArc Article Gist
Chancellor Merz says after the signing of the UK- Germany Friendship Treaty on July 16, 2025 at the Victoria and Albert Museum in London-

"This is a historic day for German-British relations. . . We want to work more closely — especially after the UK's departure from the European Union."  

UK and Germany will work closely in all areas and increase education exchanges, setup a direct rail link for close cooperation after Brexit. French president Macron visited London the week earlier and DJT is expected to visit King Charles soon.  The E3 countries UK, France and Germany are working closely in 2025.

Compare this with the Merkel period and one can see a significant improvement in Europe, a more dynamic forward looking Europe replaces the idea that only the European Union arrangement speaks for Europe. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Here are some ways to make for a better day at work.  1. Have what is called a "monk-mode" morning when you just keep out all phone calls and focus on "deep work," without distractions. Every little distraction in the form of a call or some other interruption has its costs in terms of having to refocus and not being able to concentrate on the task at hand as it deserves. 2. Have "meeting-free" days. These are days that you can focus, concentrate on tasks without distraction of meetings. Have walking meetings and meetings where you can walk out in the open for fresh air and some exercize. And no phones at meetings. 3. Replace reading with presenting powerpoint presentations. Have people write out their ideas for others to read so that discussion can be engaged and effective. Amazon CEO Bezos never believed in powerpoint presentations and required staff to write so that they could in the process improve on the clarity of their thinking. 4.  Have weekends free of email. This reduces the stress of workers under a manager who spend time writing and answering emails over weekends when they could replenish their energies and come back charged up on Monday morning for a fresh start on a new week. 55. Grab a coffee with a colleague and do some one on ones talking as one walks around the offices. This was done by Intel's Andy Grove as an effective way to get things done eliminating some of the need for formal meetings. This also provides an opportunity for casual conversation Also laugh and socialize in different ways.       ...

LyrArc Article Gist
David Enrich of the NYT looks at the collapse of Signature bank and SVB Bank and the role of lobbying that led to president Trump setting up new legislation raising size of banks facing Fed regulatory scrutiny from $50 billion to $250 billion. Signature Bank and the author of the regulatory law after the financial crisis of 2008 caused by faulty bank practices -who in one of the anomalies of Congress joined the bank's board for 7 years and resigned this week-  lobbied with SVB bank for less regulation and government oversight. President Biden has learned from the mistakes of this Obama period, as shown by Jim Tankersley in his reporting in the NYT. this week. And made clear from Biden's State of the Union address in 2023, his effort to focus on cutting the deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years by getting everyone to pay their fair share of taxes.

LyrArc Article Gist
By dropping most coronavirus restrictions including masks, social distancing and size of gatherings, and opening night clubs, England is risking the same sudden rise in new cases from variants that hit the Netherlands last week. Analysis of what happened in the Netherlands shows nightclubs and bars as the origins of 40% of the new cases in the Netherlands. Prime minister Rutte of the Netherlands apologized for this kind of reopening after a big jump in cases in Netherlands.Seven day average in the UK is at 46,000 for the last week. With 40% of the UK population not fully vaccinated, the new variants can spread faster and mutate in the unvaccinated population.  There is a basic difference in priority- getting to work and doing essential shopping compared to going to nightclubs. The Dutch government shut its nightclubs after reopening them in June. At this point England is split in how to reopen. The Mayor of London says masks will be compulsory in all public transit in London. And 55% of the UK public in a recent survey from YouGov think reopening in this way is the wrong thing to do. Another poll by Ipsos shows 70% of people surveyed saying they wanted mask wearing to be compulsory indoors for another month. One bar club owner says that he thinks what they are doing is wrong. Some students think that this is a recipe for transmission to happen quickly. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The need to rest recharge after long days, weeks and months at work, is now being recognized as a necessity if knowledge workers are going to contribute to companies. At the other end is burnout that hurts both workers and companies. This report in NYT shows how company managers and heads of companies are pushing workers to take time off, go on vacation on a mandatory basis. A big part of the problem in the pandemic is that the work is out of the office and the lines of work and office are blurred. Disconnecting the way it should be done is not managed well these days, there is need for what in Germany is called "feierabend," disconnecting as a ritual to be followed at all times while working from home or office.

LyrArc Article Gist
CDC has given no explanation for its new guidelines that say testing for coronavirus needs to be done only for those with symptoms, not for those exposed to someone within 6 feet who has symptoms. About half of all new cases are from people who are exposed to people with symptoms but have not yet developed symptoms. One of the reasons the virus spread quickly in February is CDC failure in developing of its own test on February 9 and policy that did not let private labs and labs of teaching hospitals develop their own tests and use them for another 3 crucial weeks.  CDC and Health and Human Services Department errors in February, combined with the stalling of an American team for 3 weeks by China to enter Wuhan in January,  have combined to let the coronavirus spread to the wider population. Once it spreads to a wider population the strategy of test and trace cannot be implemented the way it was first in South Korea and Taiwan, and later in Germany. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US trade deficit of $46 billion with India and DJT call to buy oil and gas from the US, to shift away from purchases of $50 billion of oil from Russia, of 2 million barrels a day. India only imported $1 billion of oil from Russia in 2020 and this is a call from the US to India to stop financing Russia's increasing air attacks on Ukraine in August 2025. For India this oil came at $70 a barrel when prices were around $90-$100 a barrel in 2022-2024. In 2025 oil prices are at $60 a barrel, and even if prices increase to $70 a barrel India can make the shift. US and Germany, the EU, Britain which seek negotiated end to the war in Ukraine will continue to pressure India in 2025. Russia could shift some of the oil to other places but the huge demand from a country India's size will not then be seen as a factor in prolonging the war. India needs to think ahead for the next 20 years and its goal of modernization by 2047 like China has done in 2000-2020. And not get into a nationalistic mode that may not be in the best interests of the Indian people seeing that this may serve the interests of all nations including Russia to phase out this European war. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Stimson Center looks at the closing of an era of Conservative politics in Japan which ended in 2025 after the death of Shinzo Abe and the 2 year premiership of Kishida. Interview is conducted by the Stimson Center of a senior Japanese political figure with 30 years of experience in the Foreign Service, and the author of the only English language book on Shinzo Abe, reflecting the paucity of research on Japan. Shinzo Abe was premier for a short time in 2005-2006 and for a full term in 2012. He made changes to Japan's SDF, its partnership with India, Australia in the Quad, and his economic policy which increased women's participation in the economy. For the first time in post war Japan there was a new sensde of confidence under Abe and he is missed sorely in Japan today. Yet as this senior Japanese politician says, Japan has changed the way the US and Europe have changed, and nationalist politics are replacing old Conservative politics of the LDP. In a way also how the deindustrialization of US, Europe and Japan has also taken place discrediting that era. Takaichi Sanae is itself a representative of the new era, as she did not hesitate to say Japan would get involved if China attacked Taiwan. Her popularity is at 62% and she has called a snap election, as she came in to replace Shigeru Ishiba in October 2025 and was not directly elected PM. Yet in the long view this is also a misconception because neither the Stimson Center or the interview participants had a keen sense of who Abe really was and Abe's grasp of the history of the Kamakura period of Buddhist Japan and China, India, of the 12th century before the foreign invasions from the north. One of Shinzo Abe's biggest legacies is the relationship that was close to his heart, the relationship with India and prime minister Modi. This week chancellor Merz of the Federal Republic of Germany was at the kite festival with PM Modi in Ahmedabad and at the Sabarmati Ashram of Gandhiji. The same degree of warmth shown by the German leader and Modi reflecting Vivekananda's time in Germany, was seen long time back between Modi and Abe. The bullet train project Mumbai to Ahmedabad and the ones that follow across India are a testimony to the warmth shown by Abe for India, and his knowledge of history from the Buddhist period in India when by the 12th century in Japan in Dogen's time Tenjiku (India) was the sacred homeland of Buddhism. Today India has revived the Buddhist traditions and centers of Buddhism, the universities and research centers for Buddhism from that period in Indian history. Buddhism started in India near Nepal in what is now Bihar state at Sarnath and Kushinagar, and spread through China to Japan and Korea. The whole continent of Asia would reflect Buddhist ideals and ideas without the intervening period of Vedic culture in India and China's Mongolian and Manchurian northern invasions, and the periods of European colonialism. Today Buddhism and The Bhagavad Gita are itself strung like pearls on a string as the Gita itself says, part of the long spiritual traditions of three nations- India, China and Japan, and of the many others Vietnam and Korea. ("All these worlds have their rest in me as many pearls on a string." -Mascaro tr. of Bhagavad Gita, Penguin). As Asian nations and peoples come to their own inner selves, find their inmost self, this is the culture that really pervades all of Asia. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Efforts to bring better wages and conditions to fast food business  through a law passed by Governor Newsom in California, to bring upward mobility and integration into the mainstream of society for millions of American families and children being opposed by McDonald's and Starbucks. Current wages are $15 a week which would bring a typical fast food worker $30,000 a year for a 40 hour week for 50 weeks. The poverty level for a family of five is $32,470 on the Healthcare.gov site for the USA. Are fast food business corporations saying that children of these families should be kept forever at below the poverty level set by the American government? Why? Are they saying that labor is subordinate to capital? Are they then going to go further to say that upward mobility shall forever be denied to millions of children in these families? On what grounds? Republicans say they are the party of Lincoln. Something more- What did Lincoln fight the Civil war for? The plantation economy of the South also denied labour and children of labour the rights of upward mobility. How did Lincoln win the civil war? By speaking up for the rights of free men everywhere in a land of abundant land and new future. "This is essentially a People's contest. On the side of the Union it is a struggle for maintaining in the world, that form and substance and government, whose leading object is to elevate the condition of men- to lift artificial weights from all shoulders- to clear the path of laudable pursuit for all- to afford all, an unfettered start, and a fair chance in the race of life. Yielding to partial, and temporary departures, from necessity, this is the leading object of the government for whose existence we contend." July 4, 1861, Special Message to a special session of the US Congress. "Our adversaries have adopted some Declarations of Independence; in which unlike the old one, penned by Jefferson, they omit the words " all men are created equal."  Why? They have adopted a temporary national constitution, in the preamble of which unlike our  good old one signed by Washington, they omit "We, the People" and substitute "We, the deputies of the sovereign and independent States." Why? Why this deliberate pressing out of view, the rights of men and the authority of the people?"   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The testing shortages in the states and the lack of enough cartridges provided by the U.S. government for Abbott Labs testing machines is causing much frustration, as shown here in the WSJ. Illinois one hotspot is an example. Illinois governor Pritzker says he spoke to Abbott Labs a week ago and thought he had an agreement to conduct 3000 tests a day. He then learned that the U.S. government was taking over the purchasing and distribution of the tests.  He  received 15 Abbott machines and 120 cartridges for all of Illinois which would enable 120 tests from the U.S. government. Abbott currently is making 50,000 test cartridges a day for the rapid test. Detroit which had better experience with the Abbott machines says it has conducted 1000 Abbott rapid tests, shortly after Abbott got approval on March 27. With the 1000 tests Detroit was able to test first responders and bus drivers in quarantine. Detroit recently purchased another 4000 additional tests from Abbott which it wants to use in nursing homes and homeless shelters, vulnerable populations in the city. The Abbott test provides result in 15 minutes making it very effective in implementing fast quarantine action when the virus is spreading quickly in a specific population.  Other governors say they are banging their head against a wall trying to get more tests. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. trade deficit with China was declining till the coronavirus hit in February. Now it is back on the way up, a warning signal for the Trump administration as it seeks to stop sending American wealth out of the country in an utterly disproportionate way of $346 billion in just 2019 after taking action on tariffs and renegotiating trade agreements.  Imports grew 11% in July to $231 billion. While exports increased but not as much by 8.1% to $168 billion in July, still well below February/s $209 billion. That leaves a trade gap of $63 billion. This is the largest trade deficit since July 2008. The U.S. trade deficit is a major issue and is watched carefully as the Trump administration sets a goal of rebalancing world trade so that the U.S. no longer runs such large trade deficits with China, and Germany, and does not shift wealth overseas. The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2019 was $346 billion, with Japan and Germany it is much smaller close to $70 billion for each country. The Trump administration goal is to all out reduce this deficit through trade agreements and other actions that stop the current outflow of U.S. wealth overseas by $1 billion a day to just one country. For this it seek a level playing field which means other countries have to face tariffs if they unfairly subsidize their industries or violate labor rights for unfair competition, or in other ways seek to unfairly gain an advantage over the U.S. including through transfer of technologies from the U.S. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Marc Thiessen in The Washington Post says to halt the problems at the border when last week migrant encounters hit 12,000 a day Democrats need to work with Republicans to get the votes in the Senate and House for needed legislation. This means losing some votes from factions within the Republican and Democratic parties and still getting it passed. It would be good for the country and good for Biden, says Thiessen. He says to get some idea on what the 12,000 figure means even 1000 migrants was a high number that would overwhelm the system in 2019. He cites John Fetterman, Senator from Pennsylvania, who says that honestly this happening at the border is astonishing, essentially seeing Pittsburgh at the border.

LyrArc Article Gist
The UAW settlement covered a range of areas setting out a roadmap for other unions. It included getting companies to reinvest in plants and communities where they were pulling out- the Belvidere Illinois plant which Stellantis had planned to close, instead agreeing to hire 1000 more workers for an electric vehicle factory and a parts distribution center, an investment of $4.8 billion. Workers worked long hours during the pandemic- the UAW negotiated for shorter work weeks including 4 day workweek for the health of workers.

LyrArc Article Gist
The treaty of handover by Britain of Hong Kong under one country, two systems was flawed in the way it was negotiated. French commentators looking at the problem say the city is caught between its past in the British Empire and the new monolithic state that China represents. Under the British French visitors looked at the city and wondered how there was freedom but no democracy, people were just selfishly just interested in making money. Chris Patten, Britain's administrator of the territory tried but failed to get democratic process, During the negotiations in 1984 for handover the chief British negotiator, Percy Cradock, a former ambassador to China, tells the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that - In Hong Kong where there is such a disparity in strength between the two sides, you go for the best you can get, I take the simple view that half a loaf is better than no bread." Britain had very little leverage to secure a separate future for Hong Kong because it was small compared to much larger China resulting unequal negotiations. The same is true today as the best Britain could do is to get out a joint declaration with Australia and Canada saying that it did not approve the new security law, that it violated the treaty signed by Britain and China. The French view expressed by the editor of La Croix is that hasty poorly planned British exits- as happened in British India -have led to crises and conflicts for postcolonial generations, a legacy of British colonial rule. India and Pakistan still sorting out Kashmir, and India and China still fighting about the McMahon Line border area. The situation is very different for the U.S. which now has to respond in some way, and this comes as trade tensions and coronavirus tensions about its origins in China and the failure of Beijing to allow quick entry for an American team into Wuhan. This being for 7 weeks between Jan 6 request and February 16 permission. America sees this as losing 7 precious weeks to make up its own determination of the dangers when every week health experts say means saving or losing tens of thousands of lives. With loss of 100,000 lives the Trump administration has a sense of being misled. This French report in FR24 points out that the lack of a strong response from the U.S. would be something similar to letting the Berlin Wall happen without a response. Both sides in a situation where the territory of Hong Kong remained mostly about money and with a disproportionate influence of business interests similar to its founding under the unequal treaties of the 1850's. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
About 90% of the 3.2% rise in inflation in July comes from shelter or housing costs. A letter from the US Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco this week shows the shelter costs are going down steeply in coming months down to where they may be a tiny fraction or even negative contribution to inflation. This is good news for the US Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation and may even lead it to a pause in inflation fighting rate increases.

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12 and Iranian refusal on nuclear weapons development and ballistic missiles leading to collapse in 21 hours of talks. Vance leaves talks and US plans to impose a naval blockade of Iran. This report by the Guardian shows that media coverage has created a sense of delusion that the world including the poorest countries in the world in Asia, in Latin America and even in Europe, and the industrialized countries will somehow allow the free navigation for oil and other raw materials to be interrupted by any nation. There are protests all over the world about increase in fuel prices, some of this affects LPG supplies for cooking in countries with a population of 1.4 billion people (India) many times that of the entire Middle East. Tens of millions of migrant workers head back to their homes in poorest states in India as LPG cylinder prices quadruple and are in short supply April 13, 2026.It also affects China and Japan which are dependent on Hormuz,  not the US which exports oil and does not seek to gain from oil prices. Posturing by the media and European governments on this issue has created this delusion that this is about US actions, when the US is only acting in the interests of all nations to keep the planet safer from dangerous nuclear proliferation in the region most torn by repeated wars in the last 50 years. Some of the language used about attacks on power plants has become a reason to justify such reporting to present aggressive ballistic missile development and nuclear weapons development in Iran in a benign way, becoming oblivious of how it affects the lives of billions of people around the world, as the Middle Eastern region a small fraction of the world's population (less than 7%) and a small fraction of the planet's surface (less than 6%) continues to operate in a way that is destructive for the lives of people around the world.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
With about 81% of people over 12 years getting 2 doses of vaccination, Netherlands has one of the highest vaccination rates in Europe. The recent surge in UK, Germany and Austria has also hit Netherlands with 16,000 new cases per day. A partial lockdown starts on November 13 for 3 weeks in Netherlands.